Jonathan Papelbon’s Contract Proves the Market for Closers Is out of Control

Today, the Philadelphia Phillies decided that rather than retain incumbent closer Ryan Madson for four years/$44 million, they would be better suited to ink Red Sox fireman Jonathan Papelbon to a deal worth $50 million over the same period. The deal includes a vesting option for a fifth year.

The deal is the richest ever for a relief pitcher.

There’s no doubt that Papelbon has been one of the most successful closers in baseball over the past six years. With Boston, Papelbon became the quickest pitcher to record 200 saves in the sport’s history.

Despite all of this, paying $12.5 million/year for Papelbon—or any relief pitcher—is ridiculous.

Like most closers, Papelbon doesn’t see much work—he’s never reached 70 innings or 300 batters faced in a season.

That means that, barring injury, the Phillies will probably be paying him anywhere from $60,000 ti $70,000 per out until 2015. This is akin to paying a performer. They paid Roy Halladay about $28, 500 per out in 2011.

Relatively, the Phillies aren’t stupid to pay Papelbon this sort of money. Over the last decade, the price tag for a “proven” closer has increased steadily. Last year, the Yankees relievers made more money than the entire Tampa Bay Rays personnel.

This is one of the most disturbing trends in the economics of the game. Teams are paying for pitchers based on the name on the back of their jersey, rather than the actual ability to pitch. Sure, signing Papelbon will calm down nerves in Philadelphia—until his first blown save.

Meanwhile, the Phillies could have had Madson, who put up 0.5 WAR more than Papelbon, for $1.5 million less per year. If they really wanted to save some cash, Antonio Bastardo, who put up 0.7 WAR in 2011, could fill the closer role while making just $419,000 in 2012.

Really though, the Phillies should look to the team that bumped them out of the the playoffs—the St. Louis Cardinals, who used effective bullpen management and years of minor league development to make an incredible run to the World Series. Meanwhile, the Cardinals didn’t shell out more than $1.5 million for any of their relievers.

Several key relievers for the Cardinals—closer Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, and Mark Rzepczynski—all made the league minimum.

St. Louis’s bullpen may be an outlier, but they are proof that teams should not shell out eight-figure deals for relief pitchers. A successful bullpen can be bought entirely for less than the entire worth of Papelbon’s contract.

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Seeing Red: Roy Oswalt Won’t Improve Philadelphia Phillies’ Playoff Odds

It’s now official. Houston Astros ace Roy Oswalt plans to waive his no-trade clause, allowing a deal that would send him to the Philadelphia Phillies for J.A. Happ, and prospects Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar.

Most see this as a move that solidifies the Phillies as playoff favorites. They’re starting to hit again, will get Chase Utley back from injury soon, and now have a consistent No. 2 starter behind ace Roy Halladay.

However, if Philadelphia wants to return to October glory, they’ll need to make at least one or two more moves before the July 31st deadline. Roy Oswalt will not single-handedly lead them to greatness.

Here’s why:

As of today, the Phillies trail the Atlanta Braves by 3.5 games. Roy Oswalt is atrocious against Atlanta. You do the math.

If the Phillies want back in the National League East race, Oswalt will have to have some success against the team Philadelphia trails in the standings, something he hasn’t managed to do so far.

Over his 10-year career, all of which has been spent with the Astros, Oswalt has been hammered by the Braves, who bat .354/.388/.543 against him. Against Atlanta, he is 0-3 with an ERA of 7.58, with a ghastly 1.787 WHIP. At Turner Field, Oswalt is 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA. Needless to say, he’s struggled against Atlanta.

His only success against the Braves came in the 2005 playoffs, when he gave up just three runs in 11.1 innings, so it’s possible he could hang with the NL East leaders.

The two other teams Philadelphia must compete with for positioning, not only in the East, but in the Wild Card race, are the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants.

Oswalt’s numbers against New York and San Francisco are not as horrible as those against Atlanta, but they are more pedestrian compared to his usual stuff.

For his career against New York, Oswalt is 5-5 with a 3.68 ERA. His .300 BAbip against New York suggests that those numbers have little to do with luck. His 2.88 K/BB ratio against the Mets is third worst among all National League teams he’s faced, behind only San Francisco and division rival Florida.

Against San Francisco, Oswalt has had moderate success. His ERA 3.59 is nothing to sneeze at, but his 2.88 K/BB ratio and 6.0 K/9 ratios against San Francisco are worst among all National League teams he’s faced. His .312 BAbip indicates a bit of bad luck, but when you don’t strike hitters out, they put the ball in play, and that leads to more hits.

In fact, the right hander has always struggled against playoff teams. Against teams above .500, Oswalt has a 3.86 ERA, a far cry from his domination of sub-.500 teams, which he holds to a paltry 2.77 ERA.

Of course, most pitchers are worse against worse teams. That goes without saying. But against teams with a winning record, Oswalt has been less than mediocre, going 47-49.

I’m not at all saying this was a bad acquisition. It was a steal for what Philadelphia gave up, but if the Philllies manage to make the playoffs in 2010, it will be because of a resurgent offense powered by the returning Chase Utley, and because of ace Roy Halladay, not because of Roy Oswalt.

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Up The Middle: The Top 10 Double Play Combos of the 2000’s

What is the value of a double play?

It seems like a simple question at first, but underneath the surface, incalculable defensive factors muddle up the idea that a double play is anything but a complex and intricate pattern of moving parts.

For those who believe glove conquers all, the middle infield is the most important part of a baseball team. How these two perform defensively can directly affect the number of games a team wins. So which dynamic duo was most valuable defensively this past decade? It’s time to find out.

The Guidelines

1.) These rankings are purely measurements of defensive prowess. Offensive ability is not taken into account. Apologizes to Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez.

2.) Gold Gloves, as they can be pretty subjective, do not affect my decisions. However, I will use them to reinforce my point, as opposed to throwing a bunch of decimals rounded to the ten-thousandth place at you.

3.) I’m measuring how both players performed together. So no matter how good of a fielder you believe Derek Jeter is, having to rely on the lead gloves of Alfonso Soriano and Chuck Knoblauch didn’t exactly put Yankees fans at ease.

4.) The actual requirement for consideration was this: The duo had to log multiple seasons in which both played manned the middle infield positions for at least one hundred games. By these standards, 37 pairs were eligible for my rankings.

This saves me the time of sifting through useless stats for combinations such as Marlon Anderson-to-Brent Abernathy.

An example of a durable player who was unfortunately ineligible due to this qualification would be Miguel Tejada. While with the Oakland Athletics, he played out a full 162 game season on three separate occasions. However, Billy Beane’s inability to find a solid second baseman during those years means the A’s have no combos eligible.

Or, take Royce Clayton. A very underrated defender, he amassed 100+ games in seven seasons during the 2000’s, playing superb defense consistently. Unfortunately for Royce, he was never with a team for more than two years, making him an extreme long shot for consideration.

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Veteran’s Day Special: The Story of a Never-Was

I want to ask each and every one of you a question. What becomes of the never-was? Not the has-beens, the drop-outs, or the draft-day busts. I speak of the men who were never given their chance to compete at the major league level. They were robbed of the chance to play the game they loved. I present to you, on this Veteran’s Day, the story of one such man.

I consider this man to be a friend. I do not know his family, or his friends. I merely know him as the man who cleans, sells, and ships my glasses. I come in to have my lenses cleaned and listen to one of his clever jokes. One day, I sit down, and he takes my glasses, and begins one of his classic yarns.

“Did I ever tell you I was drafted by the Phillies?”

I just stared blankly in bewilderment. I knew that he was a big baseball fan, but I assumed he would have said something if he had been a big-leaguer.

“Unfortunately, I was drafted by the Army, too.”

I gave him that sorrowful look, one of pity that you give someone when you know you can’t help what ails them. You can only listen to their story.

“I was a catcher. Back then we didn’t have “bonus-babies,” so when I found out I was going to be a Phillie, all I could think about was playing. When could I get on the field? Would I meet Robin Roberts? Would I catch Robin Roberts? These guys were my heroes, and pretty soon, I was gonna be one of them.”

“When they Army came calling, I was…less enthusiastic. I couldn’t break my arm, like some kids did. No arm meant no baseball. So I went.”

He doesn’t want to talk about the war. It’s tough. I let him be. He is a veteran, and he deserves our respect.

“I still think about it sometimes. What coulda’ been. I coulda’ been the next big thing. Well, at least the next guy who when he comes out on the field, you tap your dad on the shoulder and ask, ‘Who’s that, Dad?'”

“By the time I got out of Vietnam, I was too old for the Phillies, and plus I couldn’t crouch down, on acounta’ a metal plate in my knee. I still hear the choppers sometime.”

He hands me back my glasses. Topics change to lighter times.

“My son’s got season tickets to the Orioles. Box seats. You know who Brady Anderson is?”

I nod my head, trying not to interrupt his train of thought.

“I came thiiis close to catchin’ one of his foul balls. We were at a Orioles-Phillies game, and I had to go to the bathroom. Anderson’s up to bat. I come back out, and my sons says to me, ‘Dad, Brady Anderson just hit the ball right off your seat’. I think , ‘You gotta be kiddin’ me’. Thiiis close.”

Next time you run down to your neighborhood grocery, or to the movie theater, think about the people you see. How many were thiiis close to being major-leaguers? More important than baseball, did they serve our country?

Today, Veteran’s Day, is a day to celebrate the men and women who gave their blood, sweat, tears, and maybe even their futures to this country. A Happy Veteran’s Day to all!

This story is 100 percent factual. The name of my friend has been removed to protect his identity.

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