Adam Wainwright Injury: Can Anyone Stop Roy Halladay From Winning the Cy Young?

Earlier today, the baseball world got some difficult news to swallow when the St. Louis Cardinals’ ace Adam Wainwright was experiencing some serious pain in his right throwing arm, and that more than likely, the 29 year old will undergo Tommy John surgery, ending his 2011 season before it begins. The subject of numerous highlight reels thanks to that nasty curveball, not being able to watch Wainwright throw is a loss to baseball fans everywhere—not just those in St. Louis.

His injury sets the stage for another interesting debate. With the runner up shelved, can anyone stop the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner from re-capturing his title?

Without Wainwright, there is a significant gap between Halladay and the rest of the league. The Cardinals’ ace finished second in last season’s voting, capturing all but four of the second place votes after Halladay took home the award unanimously.

To sum last season up in a nut shell—Halladay was so good that it wasn’t even close, and now with the only other 20 game winner of last season out for the year, we wonder if the Philadelphia Phillies’ ace can cruise to the honor yet again as the anchor of a rotation that resembled an All-Star team.

Halladay, who finished with more than 100 total points in the overall voting than any player, was looking down from a different plateau last season. The rest of the field was a little closer. Wainwright finished with 122 total points, followed by Colorado Rockies’ break-out ace Ubaldo Jimenez (90), Atlanta Braves’ ace Tim Hudson (39), Florida Marlins’ ace Josh Johnson (34) and Halladay’s fellow teammate, Roy Oswalt (nine).

We can only wonder what the rest of the voting would have looked like without Wainwright last season, who posted a record of 20-11 with an ERA of 2.42 with the Cardinals. The wealth of second place votes would have been spread around, but would any other pitcher even come close to Halladay? All we can do now is question each of Halladay’s top threats as Wainwright looks on from the dugout.

For most of the first half of the season, Ubaldo Jimenez seemed like a lock to win the National League Cy Young. Before the All-Star break, he posted an incredible record of 15-1 with an ERA of just 2.20 for the Rockies. We baseball fans believed he would cruise to 20 wins without a problem, but not so fast. He struggled after the All-Star break, posting a record of 4-7 with an ERA of 3.80.

Though I’m in favor of voters showing a bit of leniency for Rockies’ pitchers, who are often thrown under the proverbial bus in Colorado thanks to Coors’ Field, until he shows he can be consistent over the course of an entire season, is he a threat to Halladay’s crown?

As voters begin to take a more SABRmetric approach to the voting process, it’s very unlikely that Tim Hudson captures the award this season either. On the surface, Hudson’s record of 17-9 and ERA of 2.83 seem to place him among baseball’s elite pitchers.

Taking a deeper look, we wonder if he was even deserving of his fourth place finish in 2010. He struck out just 5.47 batters per nine innings while featuring a BABIP of .249—showing that he was incredibly lucky last season. His Fielding Independent Pitching, which is a stat designed to show the overall effectiveness of a pitcher in a form similar to ERA, of 4.09 was more akin to that of a bottom of the rotation arm than the ace he is built up to be. Hudson will be lucky to replicate his 2010 season, let alone win the Cy Young.

What about Halladay’s teammates? Can any of them perform well enough to steal some of their ace’s votes and capture the Cy Young Award? Cliff Lee, who won the award in 2008 in the American League with the Cleveland Indians, has an excellent chance of winning the award. Like Halladay last season, he is transitioning to the National League for his first full season, and following a year where he handled the American League opposition—a feat in and of itself—could benefit greatly from having to face the pitcher as opposed to that pesky DH.

Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels are certainly no slouches either. Oswalt finished sixth in the voting last season while leading the National League in WHIP. He posted a record of 7-1 with the Phillies after coming over from Houston and has fans excited to see what he can do over the course of a full season.

Hamels, on the other hand, has been getting a ton of attention thanks to his newly developed cut fastball. According to pitching coach Rich Dubee, Hamels is in the best shape of his career and now boasts a cutter that is one of best in baseball. In fact, Hamels has improved to the point where FOXsports’ Ken Rosenthal has chosen him as his 2011 NL Cy Young prediction.

While we are losing Wainwright for a season, we must also remember that we are gaining Zack Greinke in his first year in the National League. Greinke, who won the American League Cy Young in 2009 with the Kansas City Royals, was acquired by the Milwaukee Brewers this offseason, as they threw all of their eggs in one basket hoping for a World Series run. Though he had a bit of a down year in 2010 by his standards, he could easily challenge any pitcher in the game for the Cy Young.

If I had to have my pick at who would be the most likely to challenge Halladay, however, I’d go with either Tim Lincecum or Josh Johnson.

Lincecum, who is just turning 27 this season, already has two NL Cy Youngs under his belt, though they were both captured with Halladay in the American League. Lincecum battled a few injuries last season, and perhaps the league became a bit more familiar with him, but that shouldn’t be a problem moving forward. As long as he brings his control back to earth, he should contend for a Cy Young, especially pitching in a large ballpark. The only worry is that making last season’s historic run will do to him what it did to Hamels in 2008. The price for a World Series ring won by young arms are tired arms the following season.

Josh Johnson, on the other hand, has to be one of the most overlooked players in all of baseball. Though he has his injury concerns, the guy’s “stuff” is just absolutely filthy. Before missing the final month of last season, he posted a record of 11-6 with an ERA of 2.30. He seemed to finally develop into one of the game’s truly “elite” arms, and as long as he remains with the Florida Marlins, who are a dark horse pick around baseball and stays healthy, he could win 20 games and challenge any pitcher in baseball—not just Halladay’s Cy Young.

Of course, there’s the chance that Halladay removes himself from the process as well. As Wainwright’s circumstance shows, injuries can pop up at any time and completely hamper a player. There’s no predicting them and there’s nothing we can do to stop them. So while Halladay is likely to continue to blast through the National League, it’s entirely possible that something terribly wrong can happen. In fact, anything can happen.

With Wainwright out of the picture, is there really any pitcher better than Roy Halladay?

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Philadelphia Phillies Notes: Ruben Amaro ‘Lee-Ry,’ Spring Rotation Set and More

With all of the hype and expectations surrounding this Philadelphia Phillies team, we can’t say we didn’t expect this insane media coverage. That being said, it seems like anything that the Phillies’ rotation (insert catchy nickname) does is newsworthy.

Before their grand introduction press conference last week, it was reported that the group gathered around a table for breakfast. Yes, that made the tabloids.

So, of course, when word hit the media that new “ace” Cliff Lee was “injured,” the media sounded off in a frenzy and had Phillies fans scared half to death.

Personally, the first I heard of any such injury was when Ryan Lawerence of the Delco Times reported that Lee’s first bullpen session was cut short. That’s probably what sparked this whole powder keg.

However, there does seem to be some validity behind it. According to multiple sources, including Lee and Ruben Amaro Jr., Lee had felt some discomfort in what he called his left “armpit” while throwing at home in Arkansas, and called Phillies trainer Scott Sheridan to be on the safe side. Sheridan had Lee fly into Philadelphia to have an MRI, which revealed a minor strain under his left arm. Yes, people. I said minor strain.

The Phillies shut down Lee for about “eight days,” according to Amaro, and he resumed his workouts right on time with the rest of the Phillies staff. So why was his first bullpen session ended early?

According to Amaro, “We may be cautious, but he’s right on schedule now. It’s pretty much a non-issue for us.”

So there you go, folks. Cliff Lee’s mysterious armpit “injury” is a “non-issue.” Surely, this won’t be the last of the ridiculous media hype this spring. Expect to hear anything and everything about the Phillies rotation this spring, and be cautious in picking out the factual information.

There was productive news today, however, as pitching coach Rich Dubee was kind enough to enlighten us on his starting rotation throughout Spring Training.

As is usually the case, a young starting pitcher will make the first start of the spring in the Phillies’ now-traditional game against the Florida State Seminoles. That pitcher will be prospect Drew Naylor.

The Grapefruit League, which officially begins on Saturday for the Phillies, will feature some more prominent names. Opening the spring against the New York Yankees will be the Phillies’ fourth starter, Cole Hamels, whom according to Dubee, “could have pitched a (regular season) game” before he threw his last bullpen. Also scheduled to log innings on Saturday are Vance Worlrey, Ryan Feierabend, Mike Zagurski and new waiver-claim Brian Schlitter.

The Phillies will square off with the Yankees again on Sunday, when Joe Blanton is scheduled to take the mound. The Phillies will throw a ton of good relievers behind him, including prospects Justin DeFratus and Michael Schwimer, and the back end of the big league bullpen—JC Romero, Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge, who’s having a healthy spring for the first time in a long time.

Next Monday will feature a very interesting matchup. Though he got the jitters of facing his old team out of his system last season, Roy Halladay will square off with the Toronto Blue Jays at their spring home in Dunedin, Fla.

A couple of other interesting names to watch on that day are JC Ramirez (part of the Lee trade) and Scott Mathieson, who are recovering from injuries. Also scheduled to throw next Monday are prospects Juan Perez and Michael Stutes.

The last set-up that Dubee announced was for next Tuesday, as Cliff Lee makes his much anticipated Spring debut against the Detroit Tigers in Clearwater, Fla.

Zagurski is scheduled to throw again next Tuesday, as the Phillies hope he can become a reliable left-handed option. Kyle Kendrick and Danys Baez will also  begin their battles to win jobs in the major league bullpen, and a couple of wily veterans will be looking to surprise people this spring, as Eddie Bonine and Dan Meyer throw.

Though nothing has been announced for next Wednesday yet, it’s more than fair to assume that Roy Oswalt will make his first spring appearance in a Phillies uniform against the Baltimore Orioles.

In case there was any speculation otherwise, this rotation lines up Halladay to get the nod on Opening Day, and unless something changes, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels and Blanton will round out the rotation.

In other news, as I reported last Thursday, the Phillies designated right-handed pitcher Drew Carpenter for assignment to make room for waiver claim Brian Schlitter.

As it turns out, Carpenter has cleared waivers and will re-join big league camp on Tuesday. However, pitching coach Rich Dubee told the media today that Carpenter’s days as a starting pitcher are over. Starting tomorrow, he will become a full-time reliever.

According to Dubee, the staff now believes that Carpenter’s greatest problem was getting through a lineup more than once. By reverting him back to a simple repertoire of fastball, cut-fastball and splitter, they hope to develop him into a strong right-handed reliever.

Seems like a stretch, but he clearly wasn’t going to make the show as a starter again.

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MLB 2011 Preview: Full Philadelphia Phillies Roster Breakdown, Predictions

Spring training is in full swing and one thought has been echoed all around Clearwater, Florida, from Phillies’ camp—this team is hungry. After appearing in two straight World Series, and winning one, being eliminated in the National League Championship Series by the eventual world champion San Francisco Giants left an unpleasant taste in the mouths of the team and its fans alike.

In fact, this year’s goal seems relatively easy to understand—vengeance. With the team assembled in years passed, anything but a World Series title could be considered a failure in Philadelphia. Now, with the addition of Cliff Lee and an atmosphere of anticipation that is unrivaled in this city, that goal is multiplied 10-fold.

Though the rotation that General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has assembled is widely expected to cruise through the regular season and position themselves for October revenge, this staff isn’t ready to look to the future yet. If Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton have said one thing in unison, it’s that they are only looking forward to their next starts. One game at a time.

They know that anything is possible. At this time last year, the talk around baseball was the strength of the Phillies’ offense, and despite finishing seventh in all of baseball in runs scored, we all know that the lineup that was assembled in Philadelphia could have done much better.

With All-Star caliber players like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard looking for healthy seasons in the prime of their careers, this Phillies team could do things that are unrivaled, both offensively and defensively, throughout the course of baseball history.

But just like that pitching staff, they’re only willing to look forward to one game at a time.

Unfortunately, the rest of us aren’t as patient as the Phillies. For baseball fans of all kinds, regardless of your loyalty, waiting for this rotation’s regular season debut has become unbearable. Will they live up to the hype?

Looking at the offense, we question many of the same things. Could the Phillies be even better than anticipated on the strength of a veteran, resurgent offense?

For that, we’ll take an in-depth look at everything Philadelphia Phillies, so that we may all be prepared for the upcoming baseball season that is sure to live in the minds of Phillies fans forever, regardless of the outcome.

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Philadelphia Phillies Round-Up: Blockbuster Speculation, Carpenter Nailed & More

Finally, Spring Training is here and the Philadelphia Phillies have had quite a busy week. With all pitchers and catchers in Clearwater, Fla. and accounted for, the Phillies have begun their season-long quest for postseason greatness once again.

In fact, with the arrival of Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino to camp yesterday afternoon, all of the Phillies’ big names are already in Clearwater, despite the mandatory reporting date for position players still a few days away.

In an interview with reporters this morning, Chase Utley said it best, “We’re pretty hungry.”

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the news and notes coming out of Phillies’ camp this week.

After several chances with the big league club and numerous failures, the Phillies have finally seen enough of right-handed starting pitcher, Drew Carpenter. The Phillies made a small roster move yesterday when they claimed right-handed reliever and former Phillies’ prospect Brian Schlitter off waivers from the New York Yankees. To make room for the new reliever, the Phillies’ designated Carpenter for assignment, effectively removing him from the 40-man roster.

Carpenter, 25, has been somewhat of a disappointment for the Phillies. Once upon a time, they thought very highly of his “stuff,” and saw him as a future staple in the rotation. Obviously, that never came to fruition.

He’s appeared in nine games with the big league Phillies and posted a record of 1-1 with an ERA of 9.31. His minor league career isn’t much better. After going 17-6 with the Phillies’ A+ club in 2007, Carpenter has been on a steady decline and last season with the Phillies’ AAA club posted an ERA of 4.05.

Schlitter, 25, is joining the Phillies for his second stint with the club. After drafting him in the 16th round of the 2007 First Year Player Draft, the Phillies traded him to the Chicago Cubs during the 2008 season for an integral part of that World Series roster—left-handed specialist, Scott Eyre. Now, after being claimed on waivers by the Yankees earlier in the offseason, Schlitter re-joins the Phillies, taking Carpenter’s spot on the 40-man roster.

Though his major league debut in 2010 wasn’t very impressive—an 0-1 record to go along with a 12.38 ERA in eight innings with the Cubs—Schlitter has had some impressive minor league seasons. Most recently, with the Cubs’ AAA affiliate, he logged 45.2 innings and compiled an ERA of 3.15.

Plain and simple, the Phillies grew tired of waiting for Carpenter to develop. At this point in his career, he’s nothing more for insurance of the “injury apocalypse.” I’d say the Phillies are comfortable with Kyle Kendrick, Vance Worley and David Herndon all on the depth chart in front of him. While he can still pass through waivers and rejoin the Phillies, more than likely, he’s seen the last of Philadelphia.

After the St. Louis Cardinals and Albert Pujols failed to reach an agreement on a contract extension by Wednesday afternoon’s deadline, trade speculation began to spread like wildfire, despite the fact that Pujols has echoed his sentiments that he will not allow a trade, thanks to his 10-and-5 rights and that he “want(s) to be a Cardinal forever.”

Well, remember those crazy Pujols for Ryan Howard rumors from last offseason? They’re back.

According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, in a piece he makes perfectly clear is pure speculation on his behalf, the senior analyst writes that the Phillies and Cardinals could agree to a blockbuster deal in the future. Of course, the main components of the deal would be Howard and Pujols.

In his proposed deal, which is actually a back-up plan in an attempt to swap Pujols with Mark Teixeira of the Yankees, Rosenthal makes a lot of interesting points. Howard, who’s five-year, $125 million contract extension kicks in following the 2011 season, isn’t all too shabby of a consolation prize. The prolific slugger is a native of St. Louis, and though he has a partial no-trade clause, he would surely go home to play with the Cardinals.

Pujols to the Phillies, on the other hand, makes more sense than anything in baseball. The Phillies, who feature a lineup that is predominantly left handed, would be adding the game’s greatest right handed hitter, and as Rosenthal notes, “Pujols in Citizens’ Bank Park would be even more frightening than Pujols in Yankee Stadium.”

I think “terrifying” is the term Mr. Rosenthal was looking for. He also notes the Cardinals taking on Howard’s contract would allow the Phillies, who’s actual payroll situation is unknown, to commit to Pujols over a long span of time.

At this point, it’s speculation, but we can dream.

The Phillies also expressed some interest in adding minor league depth this week, when Jim Salisbury of CSNphilly.com reported they were one of the few teams remaining on John Maine’s wish list. Maine, who would provide insurance in the event of an injury, is recovering from shoulder surgery and would have to battle the likes of Kendrick and Worley on the depth chart. At least Carpenter is out of the picture.

Maine, 29, last pitched for the New York Mets in 2010, where he posted a record of 1-3, with an ERA of 6.13. Over the course of his career, he hasn’t been much better. He is the owner of a lifetime record of 41-36, with an ERA of 4.35. The more we talk about him, the more he sounds like Kendrick. Unlike the current Phillies’ long man, however, Maine’s health and durability have been question marks over the last few seasons.

He does have a few options remaining. If he doesn’t want to battle it out in the Phillies’ camp, the Kansas City Royals have also expressed interest in the right hander, most likely as a one year stop-gap before their top prospects hit the major leagues.

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MLB Predictions: The Phillies’ “Fab Five” Will Be Even Better Than Expected

Spring Training is upon us, and boy does it feel good. Even on Valentine’s Day, the predominant feeling in the city of Philadelphia revolves around the future and not the present.

“I can’t wait for Opening Day.”

Of course, that feeling is mutual across the United States, as baseball players of all shapes and sizes head to Florida and Arizona to prepare for a long-anticipated season.

In Philadelphia, the season could not be any harder to wait for, despite being just under two months away. The reason? A resurgent, healthy offense and a fierce competition developing in right field that will have fans on their toes all spring long.

I’m kidding, of course. The good people of Philadelphia and the baseball world alike were waiting in eager anticipation to see the Phillies’ starting rotation gathered around the same table.

After hearing that the Phillies had signed Cliff Lee in December, this day could not have been any harder to wait for. Though we knew they were going to be wearing the same uniforms come Opening Day, it was almost too good to be true until we saw the likes of Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton all sitting at a table surrounded by a Super Bowl-like crowd of media personnel.

With the Phillies insignia embroidered across their chests, I got to thinking, just how good can this rotation be?

Each of these guys, Blanton included, could be really good in 2011. They’re like a happy family. According to multiple reports from this morning, the Phillies’ “Fab Five,” as I’m so affectionately calling them, enjoyed one another’s company for breakfast.

Watching the press conference, it seems like these guys have been together forever. They joked and poked fun at the media. They laughed, they cried.

OK, maybe I’m getting a bit carried away here. As Lee said, the group hasn’t thrown a single pitch yet, and as Halladay quipped, “We’ve been together for what…two hours?”

Despite all that, I decided to crunch some numbers and offer up my own set of bold predictions for the Phillies’ rotation heading into 2011.

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Philadelphia Phillies Trying To Catch Lightning In a Bottle With Tiny Signings

For what it’s worth, the Philadelphia Phillies made their fair share of noise this off-season. Even when lurking in the shadows, the Phillies would eventually come out on top, signing free agent left handed starter and prize of the 2011 off-season, Cliff Lee. Soon after the five year, $125 million deal became official, realizing that the Phillies had very little resources remaining was not exactly rocket science.

Now, Phillies’ General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. was going to have to get creative. According to reports out of Boston, he tried to send incumbent starter, Joe Blanton, to the Boston Red Sox. With Blanton heading to Spring Training in Clearwater, Florida, that obviously never happened, and the Phillies’ payroll remained bloated to it’s extreme limit.

So with little payroll and a few areas that needed some work, Amaro had to operate like a thief in the night. The biggest remaining hole on the major league roster was in the bullpen. After declining former left handed reliever JC Romero’s $4.5 million club option, the team was in need of some left handed help. As it turns out, the new left handed reliever for the Phillies is the same as the old. After a deal with free agent Dennys Reyes took a turn for the worse, the Phillies and Romero agreed to terms on a one year, $1.35 million deal.

With the bullpen addressed, the biggest area of concern for the Phillies, outside of right field, was the system’s organizational depth. After trading away tons of young talent for the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt, the minor league affiliates were looking a little barren. Since top prospects aren’t readily available, Amaro turned his attention to players with high-reward potential.

Over the course of the off-season, before and after the Phillies signed Lee, the area of greatest concern to fans was the situation in right field. After an unimpressive debut in 2010, people wondered whether or not top prospect Domonic Brown was ready to take the reigns from his right field successor, Jayson Werth. The general consensus was that he was not ready.

It was at this point that Amaro revealed that the team was interested in platooning Brown in right field, and that they would seek a right handed hitter to pair with the young lefty. While interim right handed bat Ben Francisco provided good numbers against left handed pitching, the Phillies explored some options to provide competition for the job, showing interest in names like Matt Diaz, Jermaine Dye and Gary Matthews Jr.

However, with little money to spend, the Phillies invited a former promising young prospect to Spring Training—switch-hitting outfielder, Delwyn Young. After a few impressive seasons in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ organization, Young hooked on with the Pittsburgh Pirates and took on a more regular role. Needless to say, he was disappointing.

Over the course of his career, Young has been a better hitter from the right side of the plate. Though it isn’t likely that he’ll unseat the likes of Francisco, he should be an interesting name to watch in Spring Training, as he posted strong numbers against left handed pitching in 2010. He’ll battle for a spot on the Phillies’ bench, and should Francisco win the starting right field job, has a good chance of beating out John Mayberry Jr. for the final spot.

The Phillies also invited a pair of former high first round draft picks to camp this spring, hoping that they’ll be able to catch lightning in a bottle, the first of which is right handed reliever, Jason Grilli.

Grilli, who was drafted with the fourth overall pick of the 1997 draft by the San Francisco Giants, has been rather disappointing over the course of his career. To date, he has compiled a record of 18-18, with an ERA of 4.74. He’s been no better against right or left handed hitters in his career, so the most he’ll do for the Phillies in 2011 is provide some depth for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

Interestingly enough, the Phillies also invited another player from the 1997 draft to camp—the top pick by the Detroit Tigers, right handed pitcher, Matt Anderson.

Anderson, 34, will be an interesting name to watch over the course of the spring. The former top prospect made his major league debut with the Tigers in 1998, logging 44 innings and posting a record of 5-1, with an ERA of 3.47. Sadly enough, injuries derailed the promising right hander’s career.

The Phillies are taking a flier on Anderson because of his potential, even as he enters his mid-30’s. When he was drafted in 1997, Anderson averaged 100mph on his fastball, and while the Phillies aren’t expecting that much velocity out of him, they’d like to see what he can do against major league hitters. He hasn’t faced MLB competition since he was with the Chicago White Sox’s AAA club in 2008.

There is a lot of potential heading in the Phillies’ spring camps, both major and minor league, in this form. Though Grilli and Anderson are likely to join the organization in some form, it’ll most likely be as depth in the event of an injury. However, should either man show a glimpse of the potential that made them top five selections in 1997, Amaro could cement his legend even further in the city of Philadelphia.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Things to Ponder as Spring Training Rounds the Bend

Maybe it’s just me, but this offseason has seemed incredibly long. From the moment that Cliff Lee’s deal with the Philadelphia Phillies became official on December 15, 2010, to Phillies fans, the wait for Spring Training never felt longer.

The days seemed like weeks and the weeks, like months. Now that pitchers and catchers are reporting in just two days, the feeling is almost too good to be true.

With that in mind, however, not everything can be roses, even for a team that has a legitimate staff of four aces. Even the Phillies have numerous questions surrounding their arrival in Clearwater, Florida, and though some of them have been given the “dead horse” treatment, the following story lines are certainly worth keeping an eye on throughout Spring Training.

Take a look at the top five Spring Training questions the Phillies will look to resolve and/or answer before re-packing that bus with equipment and heading north to Philadelphia in a little more than a month.

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Philadelphia Phillies: What the Team Can Expect Out of Big Joe Blanton

For a while during the off-season, it seemed like Joe Blanton was the odd man out.

After the Philadelphia Phillies made the biggest surprise move of the season, signing top free agent left handed starter, Cliff Lee, to a multi-year contract, it looked as though Blanton was on the outside looking in.

Blanton was set to become the highest-paid No. 5 starter in all of baseball, so speculating a trade was a simple task.

Moments after the Lee signing became official, rumors began to sprout up surrounding Blanton. The first rumored suitor was a questionable one—the Boston Red Sox. With a full house of their own, the rumor was speculation of the highest quality.

Some reporters believed that the Red Sox and Phillies had somewhat of a “gentleman’s agreement” in place—the Red Sox would take on Blanton’s salary if the Phillies lured Lee away from the Red Sox’s AL East rival, the New York Yankees. However, those rumors quickly faded into oblivion.

Although at various points in the off-season, teams like the Yankees, Minnesota Twins, Washington Nationals, Milwaukee Brewers, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics were speculated as landing spots for the big right-hander, with just days until the official opening of Spring Training remaining, he is still a member of the Phillies’ rotation.

With that in mind, what can we expect out of the Phillies’ fifth starter this coming season? For that, we take a look into Blanton’s past, his future, a number of projections and stats of all variety.

Over the course of his career, at the very least, Blanton has been a serviceable “innings eater” (No pun intended).

From his first full season with the Athletics in 2005 to his injury shortened 2010 season with the Phillies, Blanton has tossed right around 200 innings in each of his six, full big league seasons.

To date, he is the owner of a 72-60 career record, with an ERA of 4.30. If nothing more, the man has been consistent.

In 2010, Blanton, 30, had an interesting season. After experiencing some discomfort while throwing, the Phillies held Blanton out of the final weeks of Spring Training, and when he told the club that he wasn’t ready to go, the Phillies placed him on the 15-day Disabled List to open the season.

Many people within the organization credit Blanton’s slow start to this injury.

He missed the entire month of April with an oblique injury that sidelined him completely—no running, no throwing and no work at all until that was cleared up.

When he was finally ready to come off the Disabled List, it was clear that the time he missed in Spring Training was proving to  be crucial. He made his first start of the season against the St. Louis Cardinals—allowing four earned runs in a loss.

In fact, Blanton would not receive his first win of the season until May 15, in a game that he allowed five earned runs against the Brewers. Luckily, the Phillies’ offense was there to support him.

Before the All-Star break, the season was looking grim for “Big Joe.” He headed into the break with a record of 3-5 and an abysmal ERA of 6.41. The following months would be much better for Blanton, however.

After the All-Star break, the right-hander returned to his old self, throwing 95.2 quality innings. In the second half of the season, he posted a record of 6-1, with an ERA of 3.48.

He finished the season with a complete record of 9-6, with an ERA of 4.82. In other words, Blanton had another “Blanton-like” season. However, some of his advanced statistics were a little more telling than those that just scratch the surface.

The most notable of which was an extremely high Batting Average on Balls In Play. BABIP is an advanced stat that measures the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit.

Therefore, a high BABIP suggests that a pitcher was unlucky and a low BABIP suggests that a pitcher had good luck. The inverse applies to a hitter.

With that in mind, Blanton’s 2010 BABIP of .321 suggests that he was unlucky in 2010, and his ERA could be much better in 2010.

As with any pitcher, though, Blanton’s overall success will be determined by how well he is throwing his pitches.

Using some expert projections and determining the strength of his repertoire, we should be able to get a good idea of what to expect out of the big right-hander.

Over the last three seasons, Blanton has shown no decrease in velocity across the board—an excellent barometer of what he’ll bring to the table heading into 2011.

He has a standard repertoire of pitches. In other words, he’ll feature a straight four-seam fastball, a curveball, a change-up, a slider and various forms of a moving fastball.

In 2010, he continued a similar rate of velocity. Whatever the movement was, his fastball remained right around 89 mph. His best secondary pitch was his curveball, which is said to be in the mold of former Athletics’ teammate, Barry Zito.

It maintained consistent break and crossed the plate around 77 mph—up from 2009. The rest of his arsenal shakes out quite normally—an 82 mph change-up and an 83 mph slider.

Despite his consistency, all of those velocity readings are below major league average. That means one thing—Blanton will have to show good control in 2011. That shouldn’t be a problem.

Since joining the Phillies in 2008, Blanton has honed his control. He posted BB/9 rates of 3.01, 2.72 and 2.20 respectively. 

In 2011, two well respected stat-projection systems—Bill James and Marcel—expect Blanton to follow a similar path, and post a walk rate in that roundabout area.

James projects a 2.48 BB/9 while Marcel projects a 2.64 BB/9. Either of those numbers would be perfectly acceptable, as they are right around league average.

Blanton’s overall success, however, could come down to his ability to strike opposing hitters out.

Over the course of his career, he has never been known for overpowering “stuff.” He relies on hitters making contact and hitting the ball on the ground.

Since he has a ground-ball rate over 40 percent over the last three seasons, he’s been relatively successful.

Coupling that with a strong out-pitch would make him leaps and bounds better than he was in 2010.

Over the last three seasons, Blanton has posted average strikeout rates. Since joining the Phillies, he’s finished with K/9’s of 5.01, 7.51 and 6.87 respectively. For a fifth starter, those are certainly acceptable averages.

Moving into 2011, James projects that Blanton will punch out 5.95 K/9, but Marcel disagrees, projecting 7.01 K/9. If we can agree to settle somewhere in the middle, we can expect strikeout rates close to what Blanton posted in 2010.

In the long run, however, all of that could be meaningless if  the Phillies’ offense does not continue to support Blanton the way they have in the past. In 2010, the right-hander received top-notch run support.

In fact, only Yankees’ starter Phil Hughes and Blanton’s teammate, Kyle Kendrick, received more run support. The Phillies’ offense averaged an incredible 8.45 runs per starts made by Blanton.

In his only other full season with the Phillies, the offense averaged 7.37 runs per start. While there’s no evidence to suggest that the offense won’t support him equally as well, it’s a concerning factor.

Blanton, who surrendered close to five runs per nine innings in 2010, would need at least six to be considered the winner.

So, all in all, what does this tell us about Blanton? Basically, the Phillies should be in for much of the same, albeit a slight improvement.

Entering Spring Training, Blanton is healthy. One of the biggest flaws of his 2010 season was that he did not have adequate time to prepare before the season.

This year, that should be different. Outside of that, Blanton could be a key cog in the Phillies’ rotation.

What do I think Blanton’s projected line will look like?

GS: 30; W/L: 13-8; ERA: 3.99; K/9: 6.45; BB/9: 2.35; IP: 198.1; WAR: 2.7

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Philadelphia Phillies: The Best Player In Team History, Position By Position

Over the course of the past few seasons and offseasons, you’ve probably heard it said quite a few times: “It’s a great time to be a Phillies fan.”

While that indeed is the case, it got me to thinking—where do some of today’s Phillies’ stars rank among the greatest Phillies of all-time? How many Phillies could be called the greatest at their position in the history of this franchise? Are there any who could be called the greatest?

With so many options to consider, a few factors weighed heavily on these rankings. The overall success of a player’s career was taken into consideration, but his career with the Phillies played an enormous part in these rankings. For example. if a player played three tremendous seasons in Philadelphia but excelled with another team for the majority of his career, he will be taken into consideration, but he will have a tough time overcoming a player who had a long, productive career in Philadelphia.

So who are the greatest Phillies, position by position, of all-time? Without further adieu, here are the greatest players to ever put on a Phillies’ uniform at their respective positions.

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Too Soon To “Raul” Him Out: Raul Ibanez Poised for Improved 2011 with Phillies

The injury bug was biting in Philadelphia in 2010 and the fallout was dramatic. Over the course of the regular season, three quarters of the Philadelphia Phillies’ everyday regulars spent time on the disabled list for extended periods of time. With injuries to players like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz severely limiting manager Charlie Manuel’s ability to put his best lineup on the field daily, two regular players deserve credit for staying off of the disabled list in 2010—outfielders Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez.

However, with Werth having moved on to sign his mega-deal with the division rival Washington Nationals, the Phillies’ bill of health is looking fairly uncertain. Assuming that top prospect Domonic Brown emerges as the everyday right fielder for the 2011 season, he and Ibanez will be the only two Phillies that did not serve time on the disabled list last year, and even that could be a bit misleading.

All things considered, Ibanez had a good season in 2010, despite an unsettling decrease in his power totals. He posted an average slash line of .275/.349/.444, with 16 home runs and 83 RBI. For all of you stat buffs out there, that’s good enough for an OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of .793—eighth among qualifying left fielders in all of baseball.

As for his defense? Also relatively average. Taking a glance at standard defensive metrics, Ibanez played left field with relative ease. He made just two errors, helping him to a fielding percentage of .991—fourth among qualifying left fielders in 2010.

However, some advanced defensive metrics aren’t as fond of Ibanez’s play in the field. His ultimate zone rating (UZR) of minus-6.9 in left field for the Phillies was sixth among qualifying left fielders. Seeing as how the first five players on that list all posted positive ratings, being ranked sixth isn’t all too impressive.

Even still, the numbers Ibanez posted in 2010 were considered a down year to Phillies fans who expected him to replicate the highlights of his 2009 season—power and defense. With that in mind, he didn’t come close to matching the 34 home runs or 3.9 UZR from the year prior.

However, that isn’t the same as saying that the Phillies haven’t received their fair share of value out of the left fielder. According to the popular baseball statistics site, FanGraphs, the Phillies are actually getting what they paid for, and then some. By taking all stats—standard and advanced—into account, FanGraphs is able to calculate a player’s wins above replacement (WAR), and turn that into a player’s suggested value. Over the past two seasons, the Phillies have paid Ibanez $18 million. His suggested value over those two seasons? FanGraphs believes he was worth right around $24.7 million.

Despite that, fans were calling for Ibanez’s head by May after the left fielder got off to one of the slowest starts of his career. In the month of April, Ibanez posted an ugly slash line of .229/.341/.348, with just one home run.

While most people credited his slow start as being just that—a slow start—there was actually much more to it than that. Despite not spending time on the disabled list last season, Ibanez was far from healthy. Following the 2009 season, Ibanez underwent surgery to repair several abdominal tears, and was forced to train differently in the offseason as he recovered. He entered spring training before the 2010 season looking less than healthy, and his performance suffered.

By July, he was back on track. He posted a much better slash line of .337/.419/.533, with four home runs, before a wrist injury in August added yet another bothersome hitch to his swing. After a down month in the heat of the summer, he returned to being one of the Phillies’ most productive outfielders in September.

While some people were ready to write his 2010 season off as Ibanez being a streaky hitter, a couple of untimely injuries may have interrupted the flow of his game. In a recent interview with Comcast Sports Net in Philadelphia, he set out to put the 2010 season behind him, and prove that his new training regimen was going to put him back on the map in Philadelphia for the 2011 season.

When asked if he felt the pressure to perform in a contract year, the city of Philadelphia and with championship expectations, the bearded Ibanez told CSNphilly.com that he wasn’t feeling any pressure at all. “To me, pressure is a single mom trying to work two jobs trying to feed a family. I think that that’s pressure. I think that this is fun. Being in the situation that we’re in, it’s an amazing time to be a Phillie. It’s an amazing time to be a Phillies fan.”

He makes a few interesting points there. It certainly is a great time to be a Phillies fan. Having added Cliff Lee to a rotation that was already considered one of the best in baseball, high expectations are numerous. With those expectations come a certain amount of pressure, but like Ibanez said, the Phillies are handling that pressure in different ways.

As filmed by CSNphilly.com, Ibanez has taken to a rigorous training regiment to prove that he’s worth the $11.5 million the Phillies are set to pay him for his services in 2011. A healthy Ibanez could go a long way in helping the Phillies offense to rebound in 2011. Replacing Werth is not going to be a simple task, but a productive, bearded Ibanez is certainly a start.

Is he going to replicate his 2009 season? Probably not. That is a best-case scenario that the Phillies aren’t expecting. However, Ibanez is no longer an aging corner outfielder coming off of offseason surgery either. He’s training like he has something to prove this season, and like many members of the Phillies offense, he does.

While there’s certainly nothing he can do about that whole aging thing, Ibanez’s impressive offseason regiment has fans looking forward to the 2011 season, if they hadn’t been already. He’s positioned himself to put his 2010 woes behind him, and return to being one of the National League’s top left fielders in 2011.

The Phillies could certainly use that production, and Ibanez is ready to provide.

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