Cliff Lee Thinks Phillies Are Better Than New York Yankees: Why He’s Right

To make things plain and simple, Cliff Lee thinks that the Philadelphia Phillies are a more talented team than the New York Yankees, and after a moment’s thought, we realized he may be on to something.

To the disdain of Yankees fans who hoped they had heard the last of Lee, at least until the World Series in 2011 at the earliest, Lee made a scheduled guest appearance at the Philadelphia Auto Show on Wednesday, and as they usually do with all things Philadelphia sports, CrossingBroad had Lee’s appearance covered.

During the interview, the host asked Lee why, out of all of the teams in Major League Baseball, he chose to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Lee responded by telling the media the same story he’s told them all offseason: He liked playing in the National League, if the Phillies offered him a chance to pitch in Philadelphia again, he would take it, and most importantly, his family was happiest in the City of Brotherly Love.

That snippet wasn’t enough for the passionate Phillies fans in attendance, however. They wanted to know something a bit more specific—why he chose to spurn the Yankees and sign with Philadelphia.

In response to some chatter from the crowd in attendance, Lee jokingly made a bold statement: “The Yankees do not suck.” As many people already know, he quickly pointed to the fact that the Yankees have more World Series titles than any other team in the history of major league baseball, and not by a slim margin.

After dispelling the popular thought earlier in the offseason that a rowdy fan spitting on his wife in Yankee Stadium played a part in his choosing Philadelphia, Lee made a rather bold prediction of his own, saying, “I think this is a better team than the Yankees. I think the Yankees are always going to be a very good team, but at this point in time, I feel like the Phillies are the better team.”

Ouch. As if signing with the Phillies wasn’t a dagger in the heart of the Yankees fanbase already, he just had to twist that blade a little further.

But is it true? Have the Phillies done enough over the course of the past few seasons to push them past the Yankees in baseball’s power rankings?

A position-by-position analysis would give us a good idea of just how good these teams really are, but it would be very close. Without delving too far into the statistical debate, it’s fairly obvious to see that offensively, the Phillies and the Yankees both have some players that would come out on top, as well as a ton of question marks that make this a tough call.

For instance, if you were drafting a team and could only choose players from the Phillies and Yankees, you’d be debating with yourself for a long while. Carlos Ruiz would probably go unanimously first at catcher, but outside of that, where are the obvious choices?

Are Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco significantly better or worse than the infield of Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez? Each of those players has significant question marks, and some have an air of uncertainty surrounding their level of production next season.

The outfield shapes up in much of the same way. The Yankees have a slight edge with their trio of Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher, but if Domonic Brown lives up to his potential in the major leagues, you may have to swing the outfield in favor of the Phillies, who already feature quality major league sluggers Raul Ibanez and Shane Victorino.

Offensively, there is no clear-cut favorite. In the long run, it may just be Lee’s decision that makes the Phillies the overall better team.

Looking at each team’s bullpen, the Yankees come out on top. As of right now, their setup man/closer combination of Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera is practically unrivaled.

With that being said, however, are Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge all too far behind?

Absolutely not. Over the final two-plus months of the season, the Phillies closer was practically untouchable, registering an ERA of just 0.76. Madson was just as good, and for longer, and entering a contract year, he may be prepared for the best season of his career.

With Lee’s addition, it is the starting rotation that gives the Phillies the overall advantage. With all that has been made of the rotation in Philadelphia, I don’t think that much needs to be said about that. In short, a rotation of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova/Freddy Garcia/Bartolo Colon could not come close to matching the Phillies rotation of Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton.

In this regard, the Phillies are an overwhelming favorite.

In a short series like the World Series, that could be all that matters. Even if the Phillies and Yankees were to meet in the World Series and the Yankees offense entered with the edge, think about this. Which four starters would you be more comfortable with given the task of shutting down a tough offense: Sabathia/Burnett/Hughes/Flavor-of-the-Day or Halladay/Lee/Oswalt/Hamels? I’m pretty sure we’re on the same page here.

While it may not be as apparent as he made it sound, Lee is certainly right. With this rotation that’s shaping up here in Philadelphia and a complementary offense that’s set to rebound, the biggest question mark is a bullpen that was remarkably good over the final months of the season.

If anyone agrees with Lee, it’s the odds in Vegas—the Phillies and Boston Red Sox have been the favorites ever since Lee signed.

Let’s not forget, the Phillies’ last player to make a bold prediction was Jimmy Rollins following the 2007 season, when he told the media that he thought the Phillies were “the team to beat in the NL East.”

All in all, the 2011 season is shaping up to be an unforgettable year in Philadelphia, and the Yankees may not even come close.

Right on, Mr. Lee. Right on.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Rumors: 10 Shortstops Who Could Replace Jimmy Rollins After 2011

Since his debut in 2000, Jimmy Rollins has been the driving force for the Philadelphia Phillies both on and off the field. He’s the rare type of ball player that doesn’t come along all too often. He has been a vocal leader off the field and has the talent on the field to back that up.

Though he had been one of the best shortstop’s in the game in years prior, Rollins catapulted himself into Phillies’ lore in 2007. Before playing a single game, he told the media: “The Mets had a chance to win the World Series last year [2006]. Last year is over. I think we’re the team to beat in the National League East, finally. But, that’s only on paper.”

Rollins and the Phillies quickly took care of that last part. In 2007, Rollins had the best season of his career, posting a slash line of .296 / .344 / .531, with 30 home runs and 41 stolen bases, on his way to narrowly being voted in as the National League MVP. The Phillies, of course, would stun the Mets in September before being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

Following their elimination, Rollins predicted that the Phillies would win 100 games and go deeper into the playoffs the following season, and they haven’t looked back since.

After seeing the level of talent that their young shortstop possessed, and how hard it was to find an All-Star caliber short stop around the league, the Phillies quickly extended their young star. In June of 2005, the Phillies signed Rollins to a five-year, $40 million extension.

Now 32, Rollins is entering the final year of that extension with the Phillies, and things aren’t looking all too great for the veteran shortstop. He has been plagued by injuries over the last few seasons, and as a result, his performance suffered. Combined with the current state of the Phillies’ payroll, their options seem to be limited at the shortstop position moving forward. Surely, they wouldn’t want to commit to another injury plagued shortstop, like Jose Reyes, who would cost more annually than Rollins did.

Rollins, who is set to earn $8.5 million in the upcoming season, will likely set the bar. If he isn’t able to rebuild value for himself, it may be time for the Phillies and their prodigy shortstop to part ways. With that in mind, who could replace Rollins following the 2011 season?

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Carlos Ruiz is the Best Catcher in the NL East: The Chooch Conspiracy

There has been no lack of chatter about the Philadelphia Phillies’ rotation this offseason. After adding Cliff Lee to a staff that already included Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, the anticipation for Opening Day in the city of Philadelphia became all that more unbearable. While that certainly is true—the Phillies have the league’s best rotation—we must read between the lines as well.

Within the National League East exists another top rotation. Entering the season, the Atlanta Braves boast a rotation that features two wily veterans in Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe, and thee young pitchers who feel like they still have something to prove: Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Mike Minor.

While they aren’t the Phillies’ rotation, they could be a potent group of starting pitchers as well.

So with that in mind, what do both of these teams, who will feature 10 different starting pitchers, reside in different cities and wear different uniforms have in common? They both have talented catchers that don’t receive nearly enough credit for the work they do both offensively and defensively—Carlos Ruiz and Brian McCann.

McCann, 26, struggled with his vision in 2010, and his offensive production took a direct hit. He posted a slash line of .269/.375/.453 with 21 home runs.

While, out of the catcher’s position, those are excellent offensive numbers, they represent a slight decline for McCann. His batting average from 2010 was the lowest of his career, and only his on-base percentage represented an increase from his 2009 totals.

The Braves catcher played good defense as well. He allowed just five passed balls while throwing out 36 would-be base stealers.

Even so, he allowed 84 stolen bases—the second highest total of his career—and with his vision and large frame, some wonder how long he can remain behind the plate, though, the Braves don’t seem concerned, as that won’t have any effect on their immediate future.

Up north, Ruiz, 32, has blossomed into a fine catcher for the Phillies. In 2010, he appeared in the most games of his career, catching 121 games for the club as they won their fourth straight division title. On top of that, he posted the greatest offensive numbers of his career, compiling a slash line of .302/.400/.447 with 8 home runs.

He was even better defensively, to the point where one scout called him the second best defensive catcher in the National League, behind defensive guru and catching prodigy Yadier Molina.

He allowed the fourth fewest stolen bases in baseball, among qualifying catchers, throwing out 20 would-be base stealers and allowing just 50 to successfully swipe a bag. He allowed just four passed balls and made five errors—a vast difference from the 14 made by McCann, the most as a catcher.

With those numbers in mind, it’s not easy to see why Ruiz would be the better catcher. In a simplistic view, it’s a fair split—McCann is the superior offensive catcher, while Ruiz is the superior defensive catcher. It can’t be that simple though, right? A full analysis shows that one catcher is more valuable to a club than the other.

This is not one of those situations where one players is “leaps and bounds” better than the other. In fact, it’s an extremely close race between Ruiz and McCann, but there are a few tell-tale statistics that should shed a little light on the situation.

In an era where the catcher is usually denoted as the weakest hitter on the diamond, both Ruiz and McCann have interesting offensive qualities. Normally, when people look at what McCann brings to the table, the first thing they’ll reference is his impressive power from behind the plate—something that not many major league catchers can offer. In 2010, McCann’s 21 home runs were the second most in major league baseball by a catcher.

However, power is quickly becoming the primary asset of McCann’s game. Since his breakout season in 2006, where he posted an impressive slash line of .333/.388/.572 with 24 home runs, his numbers have been steadily declining.

Excluding a slight rise in a few categories in 2008, all of his major offensive numbers outside of his on-base percentage have been on the decline. He also experienced a jump in his strikeouts—up to 20.5 K percentage.

Over the course of the past few seasons, McCann has gone from one of the game’s most well-rounded offensive catchers to a slightly above average power threat. On the other hand, Ruiz has developed into the more well-rounded offensive player.

In 2010, just four catchers that appeared in more than 100 games managed to bat above .300—Ruiz, Joe Mauer, Buster Posey and Victor Martinez. Considering that two of those men are the highest paid catchers in baseball, and Posey just took home the National League Rookie of the Year Award, that isn’t bad company.

A look at Ruiz’s on-base percentage shows that he was in even more select company in another statistic. He and Twins super-catcher Mauer were the only two catchers in baseball to post an OBP of .400 or higher. One professional baseball scout was recently quoted as saying, “I think he’s [Ruiz] is the best catcher in the game—other than [Joe] Mauer, who’s on a different planet.”

As we continue to analyze Ruiz’s numbers, it seems like that scout may be on to something.

Ruiz, who batted eighth in the Phillies order a majority of the season, was the only player in the lineup to have a batting average above .300. As the eighth hitter in the order, his job was to get on base in front of the pitcher, and no eight-hole hitter in baseball did a better job than Ruiz in doing just that.

Combined with his incredible OBP, which placed him behind Albert Pujols and in front of Ryan Zimmerman on the major league leaderboard, Ruiz also drew a lot of walks out of the eight hole. His walk percentage was 12.7 (55 walks overall).

Offensively, it isn’t hard to see that although McCann may have him edged in the “flashy” department, Ruiz has become the overall better hitter. Outside of the power department, Ruiz has shown excellent plate vision and strike-zone discipline, as well as the ability to get on base by any means necessary—be it by walk or hit.

Defensively, as we have already reviewed, both men can hold their own behind the plate. However, when comparing the staffs that the catchers must work with throughout the season, it’s a simple task seeing who has the tougher job.

In 2010, Ruiz’s job was no simple task. He handled a number of Cy Young caliber pitchers, and handled them well. Perhaps the most potent pitcher-catcher combination in the league, Ruiz and Halladay combined to throw two no-hitters, one of course being a perfect game.

Halladay, who is known to thrown a number of different pitches from a number of different arm angles, is not an easy pitcher to catch, but Halladay attributed Ruiz with much of his success. When the NL Cy Young feels comfortable throwing to you, you know you’re doing something right.

Taking a look at the rest of the Phillies’ staff in 2011, Ruiz is the only man for the job. After joining the Phillies in 2009, Lee posted a record of 7-4, with an ERA of 3.34, but those numbers are deceiving. Under Ruiz’s watch, Lee’s ERA could have easily been around 2.83, as his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) suggests.

Along with the front two starters in that rotation are three pitchers in baseball who are known for having late breaking pitches—Hamels, Oswalt and Brad Lidge. Having caught Hamels and Lidge the longest, their breaking pitches have become old news for Ruiz. Hamels, who is known for his “Bugs Bunny” change-up and late-breaking slurve is not an easy pitcher to catch.

Combined with Lidge’s slider, which Ruiz has mastered the defense of, and it’s not hard to understand why guys are comfortable throwing to him—the man catches everything.

The newest addition to the rotation, in terms of Phillies’ debuts, is Oswalt. Over the course of his career, Oswalt was known primarily as a two-pitch horse. He threw a fastball in the low- to mid-90s and a curveball that would buckle your knees regardless of whether you were sitting on it or not.

However, after arriving in Philadelphia, Oswalt began throwing another knee-buckler after watching Ruiz block Lidge’s slider in the dirt. Combining his slow, looping curveball with the downward movement of a change-up, Oswalt began throwing what he called a “Vulcan change-up.” With his added change-up, the revitalized Oswalt posted a record of 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA, finishing with arguably one of the best seasons of his career.

Simplified, we’re forced to wonder if some of these guys would be as good as they are now without Ruiz behind the plate. Outside of Halladay, who will have a Halladay-esque season regardless of who the catcher is, that is a debatable topic. But we’ll save that for another time.

In the long run, you’ll hear that McCann is the better catcher than Ruiz often, but don’t let a simple offensive statistic like home runs fool you—Ruiz is a well-rounded catcher that will give any catcher in the game, outside of Mauer, who, is apparently on another planet, a run for his money.

At the end of the day, the catcher’s job is to handle his pitching staff, and outside of Molina, no catcher comes close to Ruiz in that regard. While McCann is a great catcher, and certainly, the second best in the National League East, his offensive production is certainly not enough to value him over a rare, underrated talent like Ruiz.

Simply put, the Phillies staff would not be the Phillies staff without him. On the other hand, if the Braves were forced to move McCann out from behind the plate and replace him with an average defender, who would miss him back there?

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Matt Holliday, 10 Impact Players Passed For Draft Busts

Ah, what could have been.

The MLB’s Rule Four Draft, better known as the First Year Player Draft, is not a simple process. Teams spend months preparing for the annual June draft, setting aside a budget, ranking a player’s sign-ability and preparing alternatives in the event that their planned player is not available with their pick. If the draft were as simple as taking the best player available, imagine what baseball could look like today.

However, there are a pantheon of variables that each team “on the clock” must face. For example, do you take the safe route and draft a college senior who is more likely to sign, or do you draft a high school senior with high upside and a commitment to college? The first players is almost guaranteed to sign with you. But the second player, who could become the better major league player, could turn you down, attend college, and re-enter the draft in a few years, unless you offer him a large amount of money, of course.

Those variables, combined with this year’s free agent class, really got me to thinking. A quick glance at the free agent market shows an interesting fact: the Tampa Bay Rays own 12 draft picks in the first two rounds of the draft. If they draft the best player available with all 12 of their picks, they could easily replace players like Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Grant Balfour, and then some. However, they must factor in those aforementioned variables.

In my mind, that raised the question—”What if the Phillies had done just that?”

A look at the current Phillies’ roster usually earns them a “get out of jail free” card. With names like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels all coming up through the Phillies’ system, people often forget that once upon a time, the Phillies’ had done a terrible job drafting.

Having to worry about sign-ability, money and potential certainly factors into some of their decisions, what if none of those variables were on the table?

As they say, hindsight is 20-20, but looking back sure is a whole lot of fun. With that in mind, what could the Philadelphia Phillies look like today if they were able to go back in time and re-draft some of their team? In the long run, they make look a little something like this.

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Kyle Kendrick: Trade Bait or a Necessary Cog in the Machine?

Ever since the Philadelphia Phillies signed free-agent left-hander Cliff Lee in December, rumors have been flying about the city of Philadelphia regarding the status of interim right-handed starter, Joe Blanton.

Set to make $17 million over the course of the next two seasons, should the Phillies explore a trade for their fifth starter—or is he better served in their rotation?

To make things short and sweet, Blanton is better off wearing a Philly uniform, at least for the 2011 season.

Giving a quick survey of the trade market, the last of his suitors that would be willing to take on his contract in full seemingly went off the board when the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins signed free-agent right handers Brad Penny and Carl Pavano, respectively, and the Washington Nationals acquired former Chicago Cubs’ starter, Tom Gorzelanny.

Now, trading Blanton becomes a counter-productive scenario. In order for the Phillies to move him, their trading partner will require that they pay a portion of his salary. To do that, the Phillies would require a prospect in return. That seemingly removes potential suitors like the rebuilding Baltimore Orioles from the equation.

If they are forced to pay a large sum of Blanton’s contract, what is the point in trading him? They are better served paying him to be the fifth starter in Philadelphia rather than the third or fourth starter with another team.

Though Ruben Amaro is the type of general manager that likes to dwell in the shadows until the last possible moment, using smokescreens and sly tactics as a plot to operate in his own style this time, he may be telling the truth—he’s not comfortable trading Blanton because his options have run dry.

The need for an expensive, middle-of-the-rotation right hander just isn’t all that great.

So what can the Phillies do to shed payroll? After all, as Ken Rosenthal of FOXsports.com first reported, the Phillies will need to create some payroll flexibility in case they need to make a spur of the moment trade at the trade deadline.

And trading another right-handed starting pitcher, Kyle Kendrick, could become a top priority for the Phillies.

At first glance, the now-former fifth starter seems to have little trade value. In 2010, Kendrick made 31 starts for the Phillies, posting a record of 11-10 to go along with an ERA of 4.73.

Kendrick is an extreme “pitch to contact” pitcher, as he posted the lowest strikeout rate (4.18 K/9) among qualifying starting pitchers. Though he showed relatively good control, he also showed that he was prone to the home run, and his ground-ball rate had decreased from the year prior.

Though his win total is a product of extremely high run support (he finished second in baseball in this category, with the Phillies’ offense averaging a whopping 8.47 runs per Kendrick’s starts), he has shown a number of positive tendencies as well.

Though he has a tough time striking hitters out, he posted a good BB/9 of 2.44, and the opposition hit .277 against him. His greatest strength, however, may be his durability.

In three full season with the Phillies (in 2009, he appeared in just nine major league games), he has logged 483.2 innings, starting 83 games and never missing significant time with injury.

Kendrick, who was eligible for arbitration this off-season, settled on a $2.45 million contract with the Phillies, who now have two viable options for the 26-year-old right hander—move him to the bullpen or trade him.

Surprisingly enough, there would be a role for Kendrick in the Phillies’ bullpen.

He would become the long reliever, and push the interim long reliever, David Herndon, to Triple-A. With a rotation that features inning eaters Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton, Kendrick would see very few innings in 2011—which overall, may be a good thing.

He would be available for a spot-start should that situation present itself, and in the event of an injury, provide the Phillies with valuable depth. However, they could choose to use him differently out of the bullpen as well.

Though a “specialist” usually denotes a tough left-handed reliever, Kendrick could become a “right-handed specialist” of sorts. Though his numbers against right-handed hitters aren’t all too flashy, they are remarkably better than those against left-handed hitters.

Kendrick’s sinker is particularly tough against right-handed hitters (50.5 percent ground-ball rate), and in total, they managed to hit just .247 against him. Using him against select right-handed hitters isn’t all that impossible to fathom.

However, the Phillies may be able to receive more value out of Kendrick in a trade.

Earlier in the week, the Detroit Tigers established a market precedent for a pitcher like Kendrick, when they traded Armando Galarraga to the Arizona Diamondbacks for fringe prospects, Kevin Eichorn and Ryan Robowski.

Galarraga, 29, is widely regarded as a very similar pitcher to Kedrick.

In 2010, despite pitching a perfect game (we can save that debate for another time), he posted a mediocre record of 4-9, with an ERA of 4.49 and compiled similar strikeout, walk, and home run rates.

In all fairness, Kendrick is actually the more proven, established pitcher.

According to Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, a “handful” of teams showed interest in Galarraga before the Diamondbacks acquired him. Though the D’backs are probably off the board, there would be interest in a very similar pitcher in Kendrick.

So if the Phillies really wanted to move Kendrick, they would be justified in receiving a couple of fringe prospects for the right-hander. Moving his salary, however, (Galarraga is due to make $2.3 million) could be another issue.

So where do the Phillies stand with Kendrick? Before the trade deadline last season, the Phillies seemed to have lost all hope in the former promising starter. After a falling out with pitching coach, Rich Dubee, the Phillies designated Kendrick for assignment, only to recall him just a day later because of an injury.

While that depth can never be a bad thing, the Phillies have other starting pitchers that they can turn to in the event of an injury in 2011.

Before the Phillies signed Lee, people around the city of Philadelphia were calling for 23-year-old right hander, Vance Worley, to be given a chance in the rotation.

In 13 innings with the big league club last season, he displayed good control and the ability to strike hitters out, posting a record of 1-1 with an ERA of 1.38 (3.16 FIP).

Other pitchers that could start games for the Phillies in the event of an injury include David Herndon, who posted a record of 1-3 with an ERA of 4.30 out of the bullpen last season and prospects including Drew Carpenter, Drew Naylor, JC Ramirez and, if necessary, Antonio Bastardo.

Though they aren’t currently on the Phillies’ 40-man roster, pitchers Nate Bump, Michael Stutes and Michael Schwimmer could all make spot starts for the Phillies in 2011.

So, the depth is there. The Phillies must make a decision on whether they want to keep Kendrick in the system “just in case,” or if they are better served by moving his contract and receiving a couple of decent prospects in return.

Moving Kendrick may not create the same wiggle room that moving Blanton would, but his time in Philadelphia has run short.

In the long run, a trade may be beneficial for both Kendrick and the Phillies.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2011 MLB: Why Chase Utley Means More To the Phillies than Ryan Howard

For most teams, reaching the 2011 National League Championship Series would be considered a successful season but not for the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies have won their division in four-straight seasons and appeared in two consecutive World Series, and anything but a World Series championship is a failure.

Looking back on the 2010 season, it is surprising the Phillies even made it that far. Plagued by injuries and inconsistency, the postseason in general was in doubt in Philadelphia. Two of those injuries, in particular, really crippled the Phillies’ offense.

On Jun. 29, 2010, the injury bug struck Phillies’ second baseman Chase Utley in a game against the Cincinnati Reds. While sliding headfirst into second base, Utley caught his thumb on the bag while the weight of his body pulled against it.

Though he stayed in the game, it was later revealed that Utley’s thumb had torn ligaments and that he would miss six to eight weeks after surgery.

In the Utley way, though, he returned sooner than anticipated, but his swing suffered. Though he finished with a strong September, Utley hit just .208 in the month of August. Like most of the Phillies, he struggled through the postseason and will be fully healthy come spring training.

A little over a month after Utley’s injury, first baseman Ryan Howard hit the disabled list as well.

In a game against the Washington Nationals, Howard was late rounding second base on his way to third, and in an attempt to get back to the base, rolled his ankle over the bag.

In a report from earlier this month, the ankle still has not healed entirely. Though he returned for the final month of the season and the postseason and had some success, his trademark power was noticeably absent come October.

With pitchers and catchers set to report for spring training in just over two weeks, Howard’s health is still in the air.

Even still, both Utley and Howard will report to camp ready to play baseball, and if the Phillies are going to reach their third World Series in the last four seasons, those two men are going to have to have seasons they are accustomed to having.

Still, that leaves us to wonder — if the Phillies want to win the World Series in 2011, whose resurgence is going to mean more to the team? The next few slides will explain why Utley is going to be an absolute necessity if the Phillies’ offense is going to get back on track this season.

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Despicable Defense? Who Cares—Vladimir Guerrero Is a Perfect Fit for Philly

The offseason to this point has had its fair share of surprises. From Cliff Lee signing with the Philadelphia Phillies to the New York Yankees‘ decision to bring aboard Rafael Soriano to what may be the biggest blockbuster to date—t he Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim agreeing to swap Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.

At this point, many of us wouldn’t be fazed by yet another surprise. But with a quick survey of the market, there could be a few more surprises in store.

Though considered a weak free-agent market, this year’s class was absolutely jam-packed at one position—the designated hitter. With names like Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Russell Branyan, Jack Cust and Nick Johnson on the market, it was questionable, at best, that all of these players would find homes.

As the free-agent market dwindles to the bottom of the barrel and Spring Training looming around the corner, it is slowly becoming apparent that not all of these players will find full-time roles as a team’s DH.

From that list above, at least one name that remains unsigned sticks out like a sore thumb given the offensive production that the man provided in 2010, and that is Guerrero.

After signing a one-year deal with the Texas Rangers before the 2010 season, Guerrero played a majority of his games as the DH, posting a slash line of .300/.345/.496 with 29 home runs and 115 RBI. Not too shabby for a 35-year-old outfielder whose power had come into question in last year’s offseason.

With production like that, it’s hard to imagine why the slugger still doesn’t have a job.

Digging a little deeper, however, it’s not all that mind-boggling. Following one of his most productive seasons in recent memory, Guerrero wanted to be paid in that fashion. Not only was he seeking a nice chunk of change, but he also wanted more than one guaranteed year. At this point, that isn’t happening.

As one of the few remaining designated hitters on the market, he has little leverage. His suitors over the course of the offseason have included the Rangers (Adrian Beltre), Oakland Athletics (Hideki Matsui), Baltimore Orioles (Derrek Lee), Minnesota Twins (Jim Thome), Tampa Bay Rays (Many Ramirez and Johnny Damon) and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Vernon Wells).

They all had interest in Guerrero, but have since moved in a different direction.

What could be left for the veteran slugger? Late Friday night, Jim Bowden of MLB Network radio suggested that Guerrero and the Orioles were close to an agreement (via Twitter). But Orioles president Andy MacPhail has since shot that rumor down, saying that Bowden’s statement was “just not accurate,” according to Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com.

That forces us to question exactly what kind of role Guerrero is willing to accept heading into the 2011 season. When he became a free agent after the 2009 season, one of the most important aspects of his next contract was that he signed with a contender and, of course, he helped lead the Rangers to the World Series.

According to Baseball Reference, the slugger has already made more than $117 million in his career, so you wonder whether money is his motive; that probably isn’t the case. Though shot down, Bowden’s Guerrero-to-the-Orioles rumor suggested that the money he received would be “humbling.”

So, what’s next for Guerrero?

At some point in the next week, he will likely have to review his options. With Ramirez—a Scott Boras client, for that matter—having signed with the Rays for just $2 million, Guerrero is in a sticky situation. There are teams that would love to have the slugger, but not at his price. They hold all the cards now.

At some point, one has to wonder whether or not Guerrero will open up his options to play with a National League team, and whether or not said National League teams would consider having him.

As made apparent in the World Series, there isn’t much left in Guerrero’s outfield tank. With questionable health in his knees, teams are afraid to lose his offense thanks to his defense. In essence, that’s what has forced him into the DH role. Regardless of the health of his knees, the man still has a cannon for a right arm and, in the right situation, will be a bit less of a butcher than everyone expects him to be.

So let’s survey the market again. With the American League’s DH quota seemingly filled, is there a National League team that would love to have Guerrero at their price? Is there a team that has a hole to fill in right field and could use a powerful right-handed bat in their lineup? It’s almost too easy.

The Phillies are a perfect fit for Guerrero.

After having lost incumbent right fielder Jayson Werth to free agency and maxing their payroll with the addition of Lee, the Phillies have held steady that they are comfortable with in-house options like Ben Francisco, Ross Gload, John Mayberry and, of course, young stud Domonic Brown. With that being said, for the right price the Phillies would benefit from having Guerrero’s right-handed bat in the lineup.

An overall better hitter than Werth, Guerrero provides power, average and the ability to get on base with a bat that would transition flawlessly into the confines of Citizens Bank Park.

However, it wouldn’t be Guerrero’s offense that scares the Phillies away. Like the rest of the National League has evaluated, watching him play in the outfield would be intriguing, to say the least. He appeared in the outfield just 18 times for the Rangers in 2010, logging 125.2 innings.

Over the course of an entire season, it’s impossible to determine how Guerrero’s legs would hold up, but one thing is certain—he’s going to bring his “boomstick” to the yard every day.

After all, the Phillies aren’t entirely unfamiliar with bad defense in the outfield. From 2003-08, Pat Burrell, one of the league’s worst defensive outfielders, roamed left field for the Phillies. They could use the same approach with Guerrero that the team used with Burrell—benefit from his bat early in games and replace his defense later on.

The one difference is that while the Phillies were paying Burrell $14 million to be a part-time player in ’08, Guerrero would not be nearly as expensive.

Playing alongside an excellent defensive center fielder—Shane Victorino—would certainly be beneficial as well. With Victorino’s speed, he could cut Guerrero’s ground nearly in half and still field a fly ball. The only real consideration the Phillies would have to make is, in essence, who is worse in right field: Guerrero or current left fielder Raul Ibanez?

While the outfield of Citizens Bank Park is generally not considered hard to field in, left field looks considerably easier to play. While the right field wall has a slant to it that sees balls ricochet in all directions, the left field wall is pretty straightforward—literally. While Ibanez is no great fielder in his own right (-8.4 UZR), he appears to be in better health than Guerrero and has a strong enough arm to make those tough throws from right field.

So while it would be questionable to commit Guerrero to the outfield with his terrible defense, the benefits he brings to the Phillies lineup are many. For starters, the protection that he would bring to the likes of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard would be an enormous lift for the Phillies. As stated before, he also swings his “boomstick” (can’t get enough of that word!) from the right side of the plate.

Replacing Werth’s production and adding Lee to the rotation would make the Phillies a fearsome contender.

At this point, a Phillies-Guerrero union is an unrealistic speculation, but you have to admit that a deal between the two sides seems to make a ton of sense.

After being linked to the likes of Jermaine Dye in the past, you have to wonder if the Phillies would overlook Guerrero’s terrible defense to add his incredible offense to the lineup, and whether Guerrero himself would prefer to play for a contender in a National League outfield than be relegated to a non-contender’s bench in the American League.

The bottom line remains the same. Though Guerrero’s defense would not be pretty, neither was Burrell’s in 2008, and Phillies fans will remember that year forever. Adding a bat (“boomstick” reference avoided) like Guerrero’s to a Phillies offense that is already on the rebound would be a nightmare to National League competition.

After all, with a rotation like the one in Philadelphia, how much defense are they going to need out of a guy like Guerrero anyway?

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why the Young Domonic Brown Should Start the Year in AAA

When the Philadelphia Phillies selected outfielder Domonic Brown in the 20th round of the 2006 First Year Player Draft, they had no idea just what kind of steal they made.

Originally from Florida, the Phillies were one of the only teams to keep track of the young high school star when he moved to Georgia. After watching him play, they were so convinced in his baseball potential that they paid him a $200k signing bonus to play baseball in their organization, rather than going to college to play football.

Six years later, it’s safe to say the Phillies made a sound investment.

After a few solid years in the Phillies’ lower minor league system, Brown really broke onto the scene in 2010, splitting time with the Reading Phillies and Lehigh Valley IronPigs, and putting up an incredible slash line of .332 / .391 / .582, with 20 home runs, 68 RBI, and 17 stolen bases, demonstrating all of baseball’s “five tools.” With production like that under his minor league belt, the Phillies couldn’t hold him back much longer. When Shane Victorino hit the Disabled List in late July, the Phillies’ promoted Brown to the big club.

He made his debut on July 28, 2010, against the Arizona Diamondbacks, before an ecstatic Phillies’ crowd. Starting in right field, he put together an impressive debut, doubling to deep right in his first at-bat as the ball just missed going over the wall. When the day was done, Brown was two-for-three, with a double, a single, two RBIs and two runs scored to his name. Sadly, his season took a turn for the worst after that.

When Victorino returned from the Disabled List, Brown moved on to the Phillies’ bench. Though the team considered sending him back to AAA, he was regarded a better option off of the bench than a struggling Greg Dobbs, who was ultimately sent packing.

In hindsight, it probably was not the best decision by the team. The left hander struggled to find a groove, posting a collective slash line of .210 / .257 / .355, with two home runs and 13 RBI in 70 plate appearances.

That’s hardly a reason to sour on a prospect, however.

After all, when Ryan Howard made his debut with the Phillies in 2004, his “light tower power” was nowhere to be found, as he hit just two home runs in 19 games. It was much the same story for second baseman Chase Utley, who posted a slash line of .239 / .322 / .373, with two home runs for the Phillies in 43 games in 2003. However, that didn’t stop the Phillies from trading their incumbent second baseman Placido Polanco to the Detriot Tigers to make room for him.

More often than not, that’s the way things shake out for top prospects. Teams understand that transitioning to the Major League level and facing more advanced pitching is not simple.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that their talent won’t translate to the big leagues, as Howard and Utley have proved, along with a countless number of other top prospects. If teams can understand, we must do the same. Why then, should Brown begin the season in AAA?

When Jayson Werth hit free agency, the Phillies knew that there was little hope to re-sign him. He was, by far, the second best outfielder on the market, after Carl Crawford. After grooming Brown for so many years in the minor leagues, the Phillies hoped that Werth’s replacement would come from within the organization and would replicate his production without a hitch.

After watching Brown be completely overwhelmed by major league pitching in 2010, the Phillies clearly weren’t comfortable giving him the everyday job. They made an offer to Werth, and though it was a competitive offer, reportedly in line with what the Boston Red Sox offered the slugger, it was nowhere near what the Washington Nationals paid for the outfielder.

With a lack of other suitable options on the free agent market, it’s now apparent that Werth’s heir apparent will come from within the organization after all—whether or not that heir is Brown is another question entirely.

Brown’s struggles at the major league level were certainly not from a lack of talent. As reviewed on MLB Network’s Hot Stove, it was a lack of consistent playing time that really hurt Brown and for obvious reasons. Young players like him need to play everyday. Baseball is a sport of repetition, after all.

By the end of the season, sitting on the bench had influenced Brown’s swing in a negative way. The way he held his hands, his lack of timing, his stride—several integral parts of his swing had been thrown out of whack. He may have been able to get away with several tiny flaws in AAA, but not in the majors, where every hitter is reviewed and studied and when game time comes around, attacked in a specific way.

While using Brown solely against right-handed pitching was a necessary cog in the machine that was the Phillies’ bench, not exposing him to left-handed pitching is going to hurt him and Philadelphia in the future. Instead, they intend to use him again in a role that would see him face a majority of right-handed pitching—a platoon role, with right-handed hitter Ben Francisco.

Once again, the Phillies’ thinking, for the present, is spot on. According to MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, Francisco and Brown are the pre-Spring Training favorites to break camp with the big-league club in right field. It makes sense. Brown, who completely destroyed right-handed pitching in the minor leagues, would team up with Francisco, who posted a strong .901 OPS against left-handed pitchers in 2010. It seems like a fantasy outfielder dreamed up in a video game, if both players slug to their potential. However, it is an extremely near-sighted move by the Phillies.

In order for that platoon to succeed, Brown will have had to have corrected his swing by Opening Day, and at this point, that seems highly unlikely. Like many young players, Brown made a trip to the Dominican Republic earlier in the offseason to play winter ball. He hit just .069, after collecting just two hits in 20 at-bats. Clearly, there are problems with his swing that the team is overlooking because of his potential. However, that isn’t the same as saying Brown has flamed out as a top prospect. Things like this take time to correct. It’s like breaking an ankle—walking again is a slow process, but we all know you can do it.

The Phillies, however, are cooking with a recipe for disaster.

There are two things you never want to force a young hitter into. One is changing his swing. A lot of times, slumps like these are a matter of comfort for a young hitter. It may take a month to fix, but eventually, he’ll find his groove again. It’s not going to take a drastic change to fix his swing. He just needs time.

The second is forcing a young hitter to correct his swing at the major league level. Despite what some people are led to believe, pitchers in the MLB are the elite of elites. These are men that are paid millions of dollars to expose a hitter’s weakness and like lions lying in wait, will jump all over that weakness in due time. Veteran hitters are able to go through slumps and rebound because of the experience they’ve acquired. However, baseball can be an intimidating sport for a young man.

If the Phillies want to avoid a prospect catastrophe, they’ll send Brown to AAA to begin the season, unless he can somehow correct his swing before Opening Day. Allowing him to play every day, against both right-handed and left-handed pitching, will be the key. If they allow him to play comfortably in AAA and call him up when he’s at his hottest, avoiding slumps like those experienced in 2010 won’t be a problem.

What about the “situation” in right field, you wonder?

There really never was a situation at all. An experienced left-handed hitter like Ross Gload would have no problem in a platoon. Used specifically against right-handed pitchers in 2010 as the team’s top left-handed threat off the bench, Gload had an OPS of .818 against lefties.

Combined with Francisco’s right-handed prowess, they combine for a one-year stopgap that isn’t all too shabby. Who knows? As I mentioned in this piece, the Phillies may have a budding superstar on their hands in Francisco. That makes starting Brown in AAA a smart, easy decision for the Phillies. Even if they sign a lefty outfielder on the cheap, like Scott Podsednik, finding successful left-handed hitters isn’t much of a challenge. On the other hand, finding a superstar is. With Brown in AAA, they’ll have options. If the platoon fails, they’ll have Brown to call on, and if it succeeds, Francisco will likely have played a large part in that success.

After all, with Raul Ibanez’s contract expiring after the 2011 season, the Phillies will have multiple holes in their outfield to fill, and in a perfect world, Francisco and Brown will make for a potent pair of corner outfielders. It all starts with a simple decision this year—let Brown start in AAA.

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High Hopes: For the Phillies, Anything but a World Series Title Is a Failure

Despite reaching the National League Championship Series for the third consecutive year in 2010, the Phillies had one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory.

After appearing in two consecutive World Series, Lady Luck turned on the Philadelphia Phillies in a big way. Throughout the duration of the regular season, they battled with the rest of the National League’s competition with a battered, injury-torn offense, and persevered on the strength of a fantastic trio of starting pitchers. Even those three, however, were not enough, as the Phillies’ offense limped through the first round of the postseason, and was no match for the pitching of the San Francisco Giants in the League Championship Series. For the second straight season, the Phillies went home empty-handed.

Before Spring Training even began in 2010, the Phillies were still recovering from a long 2009 season. The team’s top reliever, closer, Brad Lidge, went under the knife in January of 2010, as doctors repaired several injuries in both his right knee and elbow. He missed a majority of the team’s training in Clearwater, Florida, and despite a return to his 2008 form at the end of the season, saw his fair share of struggles.

Spring Training was not good to the Phillies, either. In the time that spans the months of February, March and April, the Phillies saw injuries to several key players. Left handed reliever, JC Romero, saw more than one setback as he recovered from offseason surgery. The biggest Spring Training injury, however, occurred to big right handed starting pitcher, Joe Blanton, who strained an oblique muscle during an outing, and spent the entire first month of the season, and time in May, on the Disabled List.

The Phillies hoped that their injury bug stayed in warm, comfortable Florida as the team migrated north to Philadelphia, but that simply was not the case. During the month of April, the Phillies saw three huge contributors hit the Disabled List: Jimmy Rollins, JA Happ and Ryan Madson. After the first few games of the season, Rollins had fans believing in a return to his MVP caliber form. Over the first six games, he got off to an incredible start, posting a slash line of .391 / .516 / .739. Of course, he’d hit the Disabled List with a hamstring injury, and never get back on track during the regular season.

Happ, who broke camp in the Phillies’ rotation for the first time after a breakout 2008 season, strained his left forerarm, and missed several months. On the other hand, Madson gave himself a self-inflicted injury. After blowing a save while covering for Lidge, who was not available, Madson entered the dugout in a rage, kicking a steel chair and breaking the big toe on his right foot. After surgery, he would miss eight weeks as well.

It was all downhill from there.

After April, the Phillies had a plethora of injuries to nearly their entire team, the four most prominent of which could have crippled their season. In a division that seemingly needed the Phillies to stay healthy, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and Jamie Moyer all took some time on the Disabled List. Victorino strained his oblique muscle, and would return after a stint on the 15-Day Disabled List. On the other hand, Moyer, Howard and Utley would all miss extended periods of time. Moyer, who last pitched on July 21 in St. Louis, would miss the remainder of the season with several injuries to his pitching arm, and has since had Tommy John Surgery. Though he hopes to pitch again, his career may still be in jeopardy. Howard and Utley would both have freak injuries that lingered over the course of the season. Howard missed significant time in August with several ligament injuries in his right ankle, and, after missing about two months with an injury to his thumb received while sliding into second base, Utley never got back on track.

That was far from the last, however. Though not all spent time on the Disabled List, Placido Polanco, Domonic Brown, Scott Mathieson, Ross Gload, Danys Baez, Carlos Ruiz, Roy Oswalt, Wilson Valdez, Brian Schneider, Chad Durbin and Antoinio Bastardo would all appear in the Phillies’ injury report in some way, shape or form.

In short, it’s simply a miracle that the Phillies, with a record of 97-65, were able to finish with baseball’s best record. All things considered, they turned in a respectable seasons, and the best regular season in baseball. However, for both the Phillies and their fans, the 2010 season was a complete failure.

After acquiring Roy Halladay in the offseason, the Phillies were favorites to win their division for the fourth consecutive season, and to most people, appear in the World Series for their third consecutive year. With all of the injuries the team sustained, at some points during the regular season, the future seemed bland. The Phillies’ most productive hitter, by most measures, was being shopped by the trade deadline, and the city of Philadelphia seriously doubted their team’s chances. By the end of June, and moving into July, the outlook seemed bleak.

However, instead of moving his healthiest hitter, General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. dialed up an old friend, Houston Astros’ General Manager, Ed Wade, on the phone, and the teams agreed to a deadline deal that sent longtime face of the Astros’ franchise and ace, Roy Oswalt, to the Phillies for a healing Happ and prospects Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar. On the day after he arrived in Washington to join his new teammates, Oswalt lost his first decision against the Nationals. That would be the last decision he would lose in a Phillies’ uniform. Oswalt would go on an absolute tear, posting a record of 7-1 with the Phillies, and an ERA of just 1.74. The revitalized ace gave a Phillies’ rotation that was looking awfully overworked a necessary boost.

The rotation would get a second boost, from within. After the All-Star break, the best homegrown Phillies’ pitcher in recent memory managed to rediscover himself. After, at the suggestion of league veterans Halladay and Moyer, adding a cutter, left hander Cole Hamels took the National League by storm. From mid-July onward, Hamels, who received little run support, posted a record of 5-4 with an ERA of 2.23.

Overcoming their injuries, the Phillies would win their division with a six-game cushion over the Atlanta Braves. Entering the playoffs, the Phillies’ featured a trio of “aces” that were feared in a short series—Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels. With the latter two having proved themselves with World Series experience, the only “question mark” in the rotation was Halladay’s playoff presence, which would shortly be answered, as the Phillies took on the Cincinnati Reds in the first round. Though just about everyone with knowledge of the game of baseball expected postseason rookie, Halladay, to do well, no one foresaw the history he would make coming. In Game 1 of the National League Divisional Series, Halladay threw just the second no-hitter in the history of postseason baseball.

Though the Phillies’ offense would limp through the first round of the playoffs against an inferior Reds’ staff, Oswalt and Hamels dialed up excellent performances of their own, and the Phillies cruised through the divisional series, and awaited their next opponent, the San Francisco Giants, in Philadelphia for Game 1 of the NLCS.

The series featured the National League’s two most fearsome rotations. Even with their struggling offense, the Phillies were heavy favorites to win the series against the Giants’ staff, anchored by two-time reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, Tim Lincecum. The series was easily the most exciting of 2010. One of the most anticipated pitching matchups ever saw Halladay and Lincecum each best each other once, while Oswalt, Hamels, Blanton, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and rookie Madison Bumgarner each traded blows.

In the end, the battered, injury-riddled offense was simply no match for the Giants’ pitching. Even though the Giants’ offense was lackluster over the course of the regular season, they were at least one thing that the Phillies simply were not—healthy. The series would reach an entertaining six games, and the Giants would go on to defeat the Texas Rangers in the World Series.

For Phillies’ fans, the series loss was simply devastating. The roster featured the league’s best pitcher in Halladay, who would go on to unanimously win the Cy Young award, ending Lincecum’s reign, and career years from Oswalt and Hamels. That didn’t soften the blow, however. After the season-ending Game 6, Phillies’ manager, Charlie Manuel, summed it up best by saying, “We had injuries, and stuff like that, but in this game, that don’t hold up. It just didn’t happen for us. We had a great season, but we didn’t generate the offense that I know we’re capable of.”

That sentiment was echoed through the Phillies clubhouse. “I felt like we had the best team in baseball this year, and everything doesn’t always work out. We seemed to run into a team that is doing everything right right now,” said Lidge. That thought was heard around the city of Philadelphia. With huge names like Halladay, Oswalt, Howard, Rollins and Utley, the Phillies, and their fans, expected to bring another World Series title back to Philadelphia. For both the team and the fans, anything less than a World Series championship is a failure.

That thought will move straight into the 2011 season. Despite losing their top right-handed slugger, Jayson Werth, to the division rival Washington Nationals, the Phillies made their own gigantic splash this offseason, throwing down the red carpet, and $125 million, to welcome left-handed ace, Cliff Lee, the man who pitching himself into Philadelphia lore in the 2009 postseason, back into the rotation. Now, with Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels and Lee under contract, expectations in Philadelphia have never been higher. Though there has been much ado about the strength of the Phillies’ rotation, the fact remains that each of their top four starters have the potential to win 20 games, and Blanton, who will drop all the way to fifth, isn’t too shabby in his own right.

One of the most positive outcomes of Lee’s return has been the diversion of attention from the bullpen and offense, whose prides are slowly recovering. Two of the most damaging memories from the 2010 postseason, in the minds of Philadelphians and Phillies’ fans everywhere, are Juan Uribe taking the dominant set-up man, Madson, deep, and Phillies’ slugger, Howard, left at the plate looking.

In a lot of ways, both areas of the team have actually improved. By adding Lee, the Phillies have allowed themselves to max out their greatest relievers, Romero, Madson, Lidge and Jose Contreras. The offense, on the other hand, has literally been recovering. When the team arrives in Florida for Spring Training, Lidge, Howard, Utley, Rollins and the lot will all be healthy, a statement that wasn’t heard much in 2010. Though no one expects an aging Phillies’ core to have career years, or some combination of Brown, Ross Gload and Ben Francisco to create a super outfielder in Werth’s absence, a healthy Phillies offense is an improved Phillies’ offense, and one that can provide the league’s best rotation with a bit of run support. As with any team, health will be key.

So, as we look forward to the 2011 season, fans of the Phillies and baseball fans alike wonder what we can expect out of this loaded rotation, a healthy offense, and an NL East that has improved largely in general. While most of us are hoping for a Phillies-Giants rematch down the road, anything less than a World Series title will be, once again, a failure for the Philadelphia Phillies.

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Worth Mad Money? Why the Phillies Should Extend Ryan Madson Now

When the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series in 2008, they did so primarily on the strength of their bullpen. With a weak starting rotation, the Phillies shortened games by bringing in reliever after reliever that could shut down the opposition for a single inning. One of those relievers was right-hander, Ryan Madson.

Since then, Madson has honed his skills and continued developing into an elite reliever. Under the tutelage of pitching coach, Rich Dubee, and fellow relievers like closer, Brad Lidge, Madson has developed into one of the game’s most dominant set-up men. Regulated to the eighth inning, Madson has become the major foundation for a bullpen that was once known as “the Bridge to Lidge.”

With free agency looming in the near future, the Phillies find themselves in a peculiar situation. With the potential of losing both Madson and Lidge after this season, the Phillies need to act now and sign Madson to a contract extension sooner, rather than later.

In 2010, Madson was easily one of the league’s most effective set-up me. He posted a record of 6-2 with an ERA of 2.55 and dominated nearly every controllable aspect of the game when he was in it. He struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings, while walking just over two. In fact, his 10.87 K/9 was the 12th best in the National League, and he matched that with a BB/9 of just 2.21, 10th best in the National League. Plain and simple, it was just a challenge to hit him. Opponents hit just .219 against Madson, and over the course of the entire season, he logged a WHIP of just 1.04, 10th best in the National League among relievers.

What makes Madson so good? On the surface, it seems to be the natural progression of a professional ball player. As he’s garnered experience at the major league level, he’s become one of the league’s top relievers. However, Madson boasts an impressive repertoire of pitches, the best of which is a fastball / change-up combo.

The most common use of his fastball is of the four-seam variety, averaging 93mph in the strikezone, with the ability to touch anywhere between 95-98mph on the gun. Mix that in with a phenomenal change-up that, at one point in time, was classified as a curveball, and it becomes simple to see why Madson has become a strikeout artist.

However, a further look at the data collected on Madson’s pitches from 2010 may explain the boost in his numbers.

In 2009, a season that saw Madson post a record of 5-5 with an ERA if 3.26, Madson threw his fastball a career high 65.5 percent of the time and mixed in his change-up 25 percent of the time. Having thrown just two pitches a total of 90.5 percent of the time, it’s simple to see why opposing hitters were able to sit on one of his two best pitches—the fastball or the change-up.

In 2010, he made a complete change to his style, lowering the use of his fastball to just 39.8 percent, while continuing the use of his best pitch—the change-up. At the suggestion of Dubee, Madson began using two other pitches in his arsenal—the slider and cutter—with more frequency. Now having above average control over four pitches, as opposed to two, Madson was able to post a career high in his rate of strikeouts and FIP and generate 1.3 WAR as a reliever.

With the Phillies potentially losing their strongest relievers after the season, they should implore to offering Madson a contract extension now. But where should they begin?

In 2009, Madson agreed to sign a three-year, $12 million contract with the Phillies, so in any deal, he will look to top that. Represented by Scott Boras, Madson will not be an easy sign and even tougher to convince to sign a contract extension. With one of the craftiest agents in baseball in tow, and by taking a quick glance at his career numbers, Boras would have no problem marketing his client as a closer, raising his value considerably. The Phillies, when negotiating a contract extension, would have no part of that.

When Lidge went down with several injuries in 2009 and 2010, Madson became the team’s closer by commission. Many within Philadelphia questioned the reliever’s mental make-up, as he blew an incredible 11 saves in limited opportunities over that span. While he has been, without a doubt, one of the best set-up men around, the Phillies would not entertain the fact that Boras will attempt to market him as a closer. Before he hits the open market and has the opportunity to close elsewhere, the Phillies would be wise to offer him a lucrative contract extension. There are no guarantees in the open market, as Lidge has proved.

One of the most notable comparisons was a deal signed this offseason. As the best set-up man on the market in 2010, Joaquin Benoit cashed in with the Detroit Tigers, signing a three-year, $16.5 million deal. Though the deal was seen as an overpay by the Tigers, Benoit posted many stats that almost mirror Madson’s 2010 season and may have set his market.

With the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010, Benoit posted a record of 1-2, with an ERA of 1.34 as the Rays set-up man. Though he posted K/9 (11.19), BB/9 (1.64), FIP (2.43) and WAR’s (1.5) that were all superior to Madson’s numbers, the Phillies’ right hander has one thing that Benoit did not—Boras.

Unless the Phillies are willing to offer a deal that pays his client market value, he won’t be interested in signing. Having previewed the market, however, he will have noticed the relief class of 2012 is extremely strong, featuring more closers than teams in need. Anyone that even remotely understands business knows that a greater supply than demand does not usually mean good business.

The Phillies could offer Madson a deal of three years, $17 million; a deal that is almost exactly the same as Benoit’s deal. Both parties benefit from a contract extension. Madson is comfortable going into the season, and the Phillies have some consistency going forward. With Lidge’s 2012 contract option surely to hefty to exercise, the Phillies have a safety net should their venture for a closer on the open market fail.

If the Phillies are going to compete moving forward, Madson is a much more valuable commodity than originally meets the eye, and the Phillies could benefit by extending him a contract offer now.

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