Bullpen Bonanza: Projecting the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen

Winning the World Series requires the perfect balance between pitching and hitting.

When the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series in 2008, they did so on the strength of their bullpen, anchored by Brad Lidge, and an offense that went unrivaled in the National League.

When they returned to the World Series in 2009, the balance wasn’t perfect. Lidge crumbled, and the bullpen followed suit. The powerful offense wasn’t able to keep up with the bullpen’s woes.

In 2010, the tide turned. The bullpen was strong, at least at the back end, by the time the playoffs rolled around, but the injured, slumping offense drifted into oblivion.

What will the balance look like in 2011?

The offense will gain some internal boosts. Despite losing Jayson Werth, perennial All-Stars like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins look to stay healthy and return to form. Players like Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez look to capitalize on healthy seasons once again, and Carlos Ruiz looks to continue his 2010 success.

Though the right field puzzle remains in pieces, the Phillies play host to a few breakout candidates in Ben Francisco and Domonic Brown.

Health will be the key, and if the Phillies remain healthy, the offense will not be a concern.

The rotation, with aces galore, has already taken shape, and the bullpen is beginning to follow suit. With many roles already filled, health will play a major role in this area as well. Relievers like Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson, who had great success during last year’s stretch run, will look to solidify a bullpen that has been somewhat of an Achilles heel in the past.

In order to obtain balance, the Phillies’ bullpen must match the strength of a healthy offense. Can it be done?

Here is an in-depth look at the Phillies’ bullpen as it projects to shape up in the 2011 season.

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Ed Wade Strikes Again: Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros Swap Spare Parts

The Philadelphia Phillies and their fans are very familiar with Ed Wade and his work.

When Wade assumed the role of General Manager with the Phillies in 1998, he made trades and signings that never sat well with the fans.

During his tenure with the Phillies, he traded franchise cornerstones Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen for little return and made questionable signings on the free agent market, committing multi-year deals to players like Jose Mesa, David Bell, Jim Thome and Jon Lieber.

The Phillies consistently underperformed under his reigns, posting a record of 643-652 during his tenure.

Needless to say, when he was relieved of his duties after the 2005 season, there weren’t many Phillies fans losing sleep over the team’s decision.

After Wade was long gone, however, the fruits of his labor began to produce for the Phillies. Players drafted under his watch, including Pat Burrell, Ryan Madson, Brett Myers, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick and JA Happ, all formed part of the core of the Phillies team that won the World Series in 2008.

Other players that Wade drafted, including Happ, Lou Marson, Josh Outman, Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary and Michael Costanzo would be part of packages that would land the Phillies integral pieces like Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Joe Blanton and Brad Lidge.

He also signed a number of amateur free agents, including Carlos Ruiz and Carlos Carrasco, who would eventually become yet another piece to the Lee trade.

So, while his tenure didn’t pay immediate dividends for the Phillies, his stint as General Manager provided crucial pieces to today’s team. Wade would go on to become the General Manager of the Houston Astros on September 20, 2007 and has kept in touch with the Phillies ever since.

One of the first deals he made as the General Manager of the Astros was to send closer Brad Lidge and utility infielder Eric Bruntlett to the Phillies for prospects Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo and reliever Geoff Geary.

He has signed many former Phillies, including Brett Myers and Pedro Feliz.

This trend continued right into 2010, as he traded the long-time face of the Astros’ franchise, Roy Oswalt, to the Phillies for JA Happ, Jonathan Villar and Anthony Gose.

On January 11, 2011, Ed Wade struck again.

On a much smaller scale than the Lidge and Oswalt deals, the Phillies and Astros swapped minor leaguers Sergio Escalona and Albert Cartwright.

When asked about the deal, Wade said, “Sergio adds depth to the competition for left-handers in our bullpen. Our scouts have liked his stuff and believe he’s got a chance to be very effective in left-on-left situations.”

Escalona, 26, is going to need a chance at the major league level to prove Wade right. His brief stint in the major leagues with the Phillies in 2009 didn’t yield impressive results. He appeared in 14 games and posted a record of 1-0 and an ERA of 4.61. He struggled with command, walking more than three and striking out just over six batters per nine innings in that span of time.

Wade is relying heavily on his numbers in the minor leagues. In 2010, Escalona spent the season with the Phillies AA affiliate, posting a record of 4-8 and an ERA of 3.81. He’s had tremendous success at AA, posting ERAs of 2.22 and 1.77 in 2008 and 2009 respectively, but has struggled at AAA and in the majors.

If he wants to break camp with the Astros, he’s going to have to beat out fellow lefties Wesley Wright, Fernando Abad and Gustavo Chacin.

The Phillies, on the other hand, added much-needed depth to their system’s middle infield.

Cartwright, 23, has played second base in the Astros system over the last four seasons. He’s had a few very streaky seasons, and struggled at AA in 2010. However, he also played in 92 games at A+ ball, hitting .318/.381/.551, with 10 home runs.

Though an extremely high BABIP of .389 suggests those numbers will come down some, the potential for improvement is there.

The Phillies, who designated Escalona for assignment this week, were lucky to get anything in return for him. When the opportunity to swap him for a middle infielder presented itself, they were quite satisified.

Cartwright won’t be the next Chase Utley, but he’ll join other middle infielders Michael Martinez, Harold Garcia, Freddy Galvis, Brian Bocock and Carlos Rivero as the Phillies attempt to find another diamond in the rough.

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Roy Halladay Hall-Worthy? What The Future Holds For The Phillies’ Ace

The first week in January is one of baseball’s most exciting time periods.

Sure, the regular season has been in hibernation for a few months, and a World Series champion has been crowned. The Hot Stove is cooling down quickly, with most big name free agents having already been signed to lucrative deals.

However, during that first week in January, grown men who have given their lives to the game of baseball wait by their telephones like children wait by the tree on Christmas morning, waiting for a call that welcomes them into baseball immortality—the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York.

On January 5, 2010, the Hall of Fame welcomed two newcomers into it’s elite ranks—second baseman, Roberto Alomar, and right handed pitcher, Bert Blyleven. They come from different walks of life.

Alomar, who hails from Ponce, Puerto Rico, spent just two years on the ballot before having his plaque engraved. On the other hand, Blyleven, born in Zeist, Netherlands, spent 15 years on the ballot before achieving greatness.

More than anything, this got me to thinking—how many of today’s great players will one day be enshrined in Cooperstown?

Narrowing that down even further, I wondered, “Just how good is Roy Halladay?”

Halladay, 33, completed a smooth transition into the National League in 2010, posting a record of 21-10 with the Philadelphia Phillies.

He took the National League by storm, finishing first in the NL in wins (21), innings pitched (250.2), CG (9), BB/9 (1.08), LOB % (82.7%), and WAR (6.6).

He finished second in a number of other categories, including strikeouts (219), and third in other categories, including ERA (2.44), pitching his way to the National League Cy Young Award, the second Cy Young Award of his career.

According to the Baseball Writer’s Association of America, Halladay was, without a doubt, the best pitcher in the National League in 2010. Though voting was completed before the post-season, the baseball world would know of Halladay’s lore before the award was announced.

On May 29, 2010, Halladay threw a perfect game against the Florida Marlins, and a few months later, on October 6, 2010, he threw a second no-hitter, this time against the Cincinnati Reds.

He became just the second pitcher in the history of baseball to throw a post-season no-hitter—the first since Don Larsen of the New York Yankees threw arguably the greatest game of all time, a perfect game against the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game Five of the 1956 World Series.

Halladay’s 2010 accomplishments have been well documented, but the most recent season was far from an oddity for the man who also won the American League Cy Young Award in 2003, as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays.

During that season, he posted a record of 22-7, with stats that nearly mirrored those he posted in 2010, creating the argument that moving to the National League added years to the ace’s career.

Premature as it may be, we must ask ourselves—”Are we witnessing one of the greatest pitcher’s of all time? Will this man eventually have a spot in Cooperstown?”

There is plenty of evidence to support his case.

Through the first 13 years of his career (which includes just two games in 1998), Halladay has posted a career record of 169 – 86, to go along with a career ERA of 3.32.

Over the course of his career, he has won 20 games three times, and in 2003, came close by winning 19.

He posted an ERA under four 11 times in his career and—more impressively—posted ERA’s below three, six times, including a rookie season that boasted an ERA below two.

His resume already includes some very impressive feats, including winning the Cy Young Award twice, being selected as an All-Star seven times, being named the Starting Pitcher of the Year in 2010, leading the league in wins twice, and throwing two no-hitters.

Though his accomplishments are impressive to date, his career is far from over.

He has yet to rank in the top 50 in any of the major pitching categories, though that can change the longer he extends his career.

The common benchmark for pitching is wins, and 300 is the “guarantee marker.” Well, in order for Roy Halladay to win 300 games by the age of 40, he would have to average 19 wins per season over the next seven seasons.

Though it is possible, it is also unlikely.

On the other hand, the Baseball Hall of Fame finally opened it’s doors to Bert Blyleven in 2011, and his resume featured just 287 wins, though he was on the ballet for an incredible 15 years, the last of his eligibility.

According to Baseball-Reference.com’s Similarity Scores (through age 33), Halladay ranks favorably among two Hall of Fame pitchers —Carl Hubbell and Jim Bunning.

Through age 33, Hubbell posted a record of 170 – 94, with an ERA of 2.79.

He played for a total of 16 seasons with the New York Giants, and finished with a career record of 253 – 154, with an ERA of 2.98.

He threw an incredible 3,590.1 innings over the entirety of his career with the Giants, and finished with an impressive accolades resume of his own, including nine All-Star selections, two National League MVP awards, and the ability to call himself a World Champion, something Halladay has yet to do in his career.

Bunning’s line through age 33 featured much of the same.

Through his first 11 seasons, Bunning posted a record of 156 – 104, and an ERA of 3.53. Over the course of his career with the Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Los Angeles Dodgers, he posted a record of 224 – 184, with an ERA of 3.27.

Like many Hall of Fame pitchers, he boasts several career accolades, including nine All-Star selections and pitching a perfect game.

Though Carl Hubbell and Jim Bunning pitched in a different era, where many starting pitchers threw complete games and logged ridiculous amounts of innings with incredible frequency, the fact of the matter remains the same—through the first 13 years of his career, Roy Halladay has pitched like a potential Hall of Famer.

He already boasts several of the game’s greatest feats, including winning the Cy Young Award in both leagues, being selected as an All-Star in both leagues, leading both leagues in wins, and throwing multiple no-hitters, including a perfect game.

If, over the course of the next seven seasons, Halladay can compile 55 more wins, which seems like a great possibility, he will have surpassed those of Jim Bunning, and if he can win 84 more games, he will have pulled even with Carl Hubbell.

You can also make the argument that he has already achieved more in the game, minus winning the World Series, than Hubbell or Bunning ever have, and finishing out his career would simply make Halladay a Hall of Fame pitcher.

Several intangibles also give Halladay a boost, in the minds of eligible voters.

In an era plagued by the clouds of steroids and performance enhancing drugs, Halladay has dominated both leagues while never testing positive for a substance. He has never been involved in controversy, and has represented Major League Baseball with the greatest of pride.

So the question remains—Will Roy Halladay be a Hall of Fame pitcher when his career is over?

Based on his track record, it’s hard to believe that he won’t be.

If Jim Bunning and Carl Hubbell are the litmus test, then Halladay arrives in Cooperstown as a First Ballot player. As mentioned, he has already achieved, in just 13 seasons, many of the feats that voters look for—no-hitters, 20-win seasons, and notable awards, including the Cy Young, twice.

Two things, in my mind, would hold him up, assuming he finishes his career on the track he’s heading—new statistics and wins.

We live in an ever-evolving world, and with the introduction of SABRmetrics a few years back, baseball statistics have changed greatly.

With more and more baseball writers familiarizing themselves with said stats, a deeper evaluation of those eligible for the Hall of Fame has gone underway. Though SABRmetrics favor Halladay highly, you never know what the future holds.

In the same regard, Halladay will have to pass at least Bunning in wins at this point, and though he may not be a sure-fire 300-game winner, if anyone has the chance to pitch effectively into his forties’, it is Roy Halladay.

However, with his accomplishments, and a resume that is likely to be added to, it is hard to believe that Halladay won’t win over 250 games, and perhaps, finish his career with just two Cy Young Awards.

Though nothing in baseball is guaranteed, pitchers like Roy Halladay don’t come along often.

The Hall of Fame features just 60 pitchers as of 2011, but several years in the future, the consensus says that Cooperstown will be opening it’s doors for one more, the only question that remains is—what hat will he wear?

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Joakim Soria: The Final Piece to the Philadelphia Phillies’ Offseason Puzzle?

The Kansas City Royals had two prized pitchers heading into the offseason. The first was 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner, Zack Greinke. He was known to be available after having voiced his disgust with the Royals, and a few months later, they shipped him to the Milwaukee Brewers for four of the Brewers’ top prospects.

According to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the press release had barely gone public when teams started calling about the Royals’ second most valued commodity—closer, Joakim Soria.

Soria, 26, has been nicknamed “The Mexicutioner,” and it should be fairly obvious why: When he enters the ball game in the ninth inning, the opponent’s hopes of winning are all but dead.

Since becoming a full time reliever in 2007, Soria has been electric, appearing in a total of 238 games, posting a record of 8-10, with an ERA of just 2.01. Through age 26, he has converted 238 saves for the bottom dwelling, Kansas City Royals, and has blow just 13 saves over the course of his career. By the time his career is finished, he could be one of the greatest closers baseball has ever seen.

So why would the Royals want to trade him?

Though they’re not stuck in the same predicament they were with Greinke, the Royals interest in trading Soria would be more of a want than a necessity. Soria is signed to a team friendly deal through the 2011 season, with club options that become guaranteed with various in-game feats for each season through 2014.

Soria’s contract is one of his best selling points, and has drawn the interest of large market teams like the New York Yankees, who were rumored to have offered their top prospect, catcher/DH Jesus Montero, straight up for the Royals’ closer. The Yankees were denied because of the depth of the Royals’ farm system in that position, but the point is clear: teams are willing to give up their best to acquire Soria. Why is that?

In short, he has been absolutely dominant as a closer. Last season alone, he posted a record of 1-2 with an ERA of 1.78 for the Royals, converting 43 saves. Take into consideration that the Royals won just 67 games in 2010.

That means that Soria saved more than 64 percent of all Royals wins in 2010. Imagine what he can do with an annual contender like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, or as this article is concerned, the Philadelphia Phillies.

With Brad Lidge already in tow, why would the Phillies consider Soria?

When he is completely healthy, Lidge is one of the best closers in baseball. He showed flashes of that brilliance at the end of the 2010 season, where he posted an ERA of 0.76 over the final three months of the season, and reduced his blown saves from 11 in 2009 to just five in 2010. It is his inconsistency that has worried the Phillies organization, however.

Before he returned to form in those final three months, Lidge posted an ERA of 6.52 in the months of June and July. Aside from his on the field performance, Lidge is almost sure to become a free agent after the 2011 season, since the Phillies hold a hefty option for 2012 that is sure to be declined.

The Phillies also boast a set-up man that has “closer stuff,” in right-hander Ryan Madson. Madson was much better—and more consistent, for that matter—than Lidge in 2010. He posted a 6-2 with an ERA of 2.55, and despite missing a significant amount of time with a broken toe, recorded 15 holds to effectively set up Lidge.

Like Lidge, however, Madson will become a free agent after the 2011 season, and though he is more likely to return to the Phillies than his closer counterpart, he is a Scott Boras client, and will surely make the Phillies sweat it out and ask for a big pay day.

With the uncertainty of the Phillies bullpen after the 2011 season, why not make a play for the golden standard?

According to Baseball America and numerous other prospect gurus, the Royals have the most talented, deepest farm system in baseball. With names like Mike Montgomery, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Wil Meyers in their system, the Royals made it clear that they will not just settle for a team’s top prospect. In any deal for any of their star players, they are going to fill areas of need with young, talented players.

General Manager Dayton Moore made it clear that he was going to seek a middle infielder, a center fielder and pitching help for Zack Greinke’s services, and what did he do? He went out and acquired shortstop Alcides Escobar, center fielder Lorenzo Cain and pitchers Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi from the Milwaukee Brewers. So what’s left to upgrade?

From an outsider’s perspective, the Royals appear to need the most help in the outfield, in the starting rotation, in the bullpen, and behind the plate. If the Phillies were going to express interest in Soria, they could help fill each of those areas. Any deal for Soria would surely start with baseball’s top prospect, outfielder Domonic Brown.

Though he had a less than impressive debut, Brown mashed minor league pitching, posting a slash line of .332/.391/.582, with 20 home runs. He is the standard five tool player, and will transition into one of baseball’s premier outfielders.

The Phillies could also offer a bevy of relief prospects, highlighted by right hander, Justin DeFratus. He posted ERAs below 2.20 at three different levels in the Phillies’ system in 2010, and was added to the 40-man roster earlier in the winter.

Combined with any number of starting pitching prospects like Trevor May, Jarred Cosart, or Brody Colvin and talented defensive catcher Sebastian Valle, and the Phillies could put together an impressive package.

That seems to be where most teams put Dayton Moore on hold. How do you value a pitcher that is going to throw a maximum of 70 innings pitched? According to some sources, the Phillies wouldn’t be ridiculous to offer Domonic Brown straight up for Soria, but like the Yankees, they would probably be turned down.

As mentioned earlier, Soria has an extremely team friendly contract that should up his value. If the Phillies were to offer Domonic Brown, Justin DeFratus and another player, I think it would be hard to turn that package down.

Soria himself could also be an obstacle to a deal. He has a partial no trade clause that blocks, among other teams, the Phillies. Though recent reports suggest that Soria wouldn’t block a trade to any team, he could use his no-trade clause as leverage to negotiate an extension with a new team. That, is a different discussion all together.

At the end of the day, Soria seems like a perfect fit for the Phillies bullpen. Assuming that they could move Joe Blanton, he’d make just half of what the starter is due in 2011.

Assuming that he’d be the go-to guy in the ninth inning, the Phillies would be able to turn to Jose Contreras, JC Romero, Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge in some combination from the sixth inning onward, and with their four horseman manning the rotation, how often would they be necessary?

It would easily be the greatest pitching staff of all time, and certainly complies with General Manager Ruben Amaro’s philosophy that pitching wins championships.

I suppose it comes down to the discussion, who is more valuable going forward—Joakim Soria or Domonic Brown?

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Phast Phorward: A Look at the Philadelphia Phillies’ Projected Roster in 2014

There sure has been a lot of banter about the Philadelphia Phillies over the past week, and why not?

The Phillies made a splash in the free-agent market by netting its top prize: left-handed starter and former Phillie, Cliff Lee. While Phillies fans have basked in the glory of pairing him with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, and enjoying their chances for a repeat as baseball’s team with the best record, Lee and others have firmly stated that they won’t settle for finishing second-best.

Anything other than a World Series title will be a disappointment for the Phillies and their fans alike.

With high expectations from your own fanbase comes a lot of negative feedback from those teams that a signing like this will affect. It’s not the perfect situation for the Phillies. As those teams and fans have pointed out, this elite Phillies core is aging quickly.

Injuries ravaged the team in 2010, and though they hope for a healthier 2011, they certainly aren’t getting any younger. Add that to the largest payroll in the history of the franchise, and a lot of people believe that the Phillies have a limited window to be successful.

Is that the case?

There are no reinforcements on the way in the Phillies’ immediate future. The organization’s best prospects are all located in the lower levels of the minor league system. The bullpen could possibly benefit from some minor league talent like Scott Mathieson, BJ Rosenberg, Mike Zagurski, Michael Schwimmer and Justin DeFratus in the near future, but that’s about it.

An aging core, payroll that is reaching new heights, and lack of upper-level prospects have a lot of fans and foes alike calling for the end of the Phillies in the near future. These factors are somewhat misleading, as many of the Phillies’ lower-level minor league talent projects to be quality major league starters over the next few seasons.

As the Phillies’ core ages now, an influx of young talent should give the team a nice shot in the arm, and a television contract that expires in 2015 should give the Phillies all the payroll they need. According to one professional scout, the Phillies could go on a “Braves-like” streak of divisional titles.

While the Phillies enjoy their glory days now, the future is always on our minds. So with that, here is a look at Baseball America’s projected roster for the Phillies in 2014.

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Pennsylvania Peace Treaty: Why the Phillies and Pirates Match Up for a Trade

At one point in history, the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates had a steaming hot rivalry not all that unlike the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox rivalry that has spanned baseball history.

In the mid-to-late 1970s, two of the National League’s best teams and perennial contenders were the Phillies and the Pirates. Thanks to proximity in geography, there was a burning passion for each of the teams.

If you were a fan in Philadelphia, you absolutely hated the Pirates, and the adverse was true as well for residents of the Steel City.

“During the 1970s, a total of only three teams won the National League East—the Pirates won it six times, the Phillies won it three times and the New York Mets won it once. In all three of the Phillies’ title seasons, the Pirates would finish breathing down their necks in second place.”

That rivalry has long since died out.

Though it is due to many factors, modern-day scheduling has the Phillies and Pirates meeting on an average of six times per season, and with the fact that the Phillies have trumped the National League East over the latter half of the last decade and the Pirates have finished with 18 consecutive losing seasons, the memories of those old rivalries are just that: memories.

However, that won’t stop the two teams from matching up for a trade.

When the Phillies shocked the baseball world by signing free agent left-hander Cliff Lee, it wasn’t a surprise to learn that right-hander Joe Blanton almost immediately became expendable. Rumors had the Phillies and Red Sox discussing a potential deal well into the night before the Phillies signed Lee, but that deal fell through.

In fact, many baseball executives believe that the Phillies won’t move Blanton unless they find the right deal for them, since the backloading of Lee’s deal (he’ll only make $11 million in 2011) gives them some breathing room in the payroll.

So what do the Phillies need, and how do the Pirates make sense?

Before signing Lee and still hereafter, the Phillies have a glaring vacancy in the lineup left by the departure of right fielder Jayson Werth. Though the Phillies made him a fair offer, and general manager Ruben Amaro joked that he could have remained with the team had he accepted arbitration, Werth signed with the division rival Washington Nationals for a mega deal of seven years and $126 million.

Though the Phillies continue to reassure their fanbase that they are comfortable with their options in right field, which as of now will be some combination of Domonic Brown, Ross Gload and Ben Francisco, Werth’s production will not be easily replaced.

In a year in which most of the lineup was plagued by injury, Werth was able to stay healthy in 2010 and would go on to put up a .296/.388/.532 slash line, good for a career high .921 OPS. Though he struggled mightily with runners in scoring position, Werth blasted 27 home runs and drove in 97 runs.

The production of the Phillies’ trio of candidates in 2010? Well, let’s just say that they weren’t as good. They’ll look for an affordable upgrade there.

The key word, of course, is “affordable.”

The Phillies have a ton of money committed to their payroll in 2011, and the major reason they’re looking to deal Blanton in the first place is to clear some of that capital. Though Blanton is owed $17 million over the course of the next two years, he is an affordable commodity to a team that craves starting pitching.

When discussing Blanton, the word “serviceable” comes up often. Though he’s not a top of the rotation arm, he is a valuable option for any rotation. In a full, healthy season, Blanton is going to log close to 200 innings and feature a FIP right around 4.30. He won’t win a Cy Young Award, but he will help a team win games.

The Phillies may have a valuable trade chip, but what do the Pirates have, and why would the Phillies be interested?

Ryan Doumit. The former catcher was forced to move to right field when the Pirates acquired Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Chris Snyder at the trade deadline last season, and Doumit was not thrilled about losing his starting catching job.

According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Doumit had this to say about the trade: “I was shocked, obviously. I didn’t know how to interpret it. He’s a starting catcher type guy. I’m a starting catcher type guy. I didn’t know what to think of it. You know, obviously, I want to play. I want to play every day. I think I’m an everyday major leaguer and…I don’t know. I’m still kind of taken aback by it.”

Obviously, Doumit was not happy from being moved out from behind the plate, and he had every right to be upset. After he hit .318/.357/.501 with 15 HRs behind the plate for the Pirates in 2008, they rewarded him with a three-year, $11.5 million contract in the offseason, seemingly locking up their catcher.

The deal, which included club options for the 2012 and 2013 seasons, made the acquisition of Chris Snyder, who hit just .231/.352/.426 for the D-Backs before being shipped to the Pirates, seem questionable, to say the least. Speculation surrounding the deal was that the Pirates were concerned with Doumit’s health behind the plate.

Though Doumit’s 2010 numbers over the past two seasons have been somewhat disappointing, a move off a weak Pirates team and a solidified role in the lineup may do wonders for him.

For example, Roy Oswalt was in much the same situation with the Astros in 2010. During the first half of the season, with Houston, Oswalt was 6-12 with an ERA of 3.42. After being traded to Philadelphia, a revitalized Oswalt went 7-1, posting an incredible ERA of just 1.74, making a case for Cy Young consideration and finishing sixth. Could a change of scenery and a spot in right field be just what Doumit needs?

It’s possible, and the Pirates, who are in desperate need of starting pitching, could use Blanton as well.

As it stands on Dec. 17, 2010, the projected ace of the 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates staff is James McDonald. The 23-year-old McDonald was part of a Pirates staff that finished in dead last in many major pitching stat categories in 2010, including ERA, wins, complete games, innings pitched and batting average against.

Joe Blanton, who could easily take the mantle as the ace of that weak staff, could be an interesting option for the struggling Pirates.

Could a deal take place?

It’s a very likely possibility, assuming that each team is willing to bargain. The Phillies will try to move as much money as possible. Blanton will be owed $17 million guaranteed dollars over the next two years, and Doumit, on the other hand, will be owed $5.6 million, including his buyout, over just one guaranteed year in 2011.

The Phillies will need to pitch in a good sum of money for the Pirates to take on Blanton. They aren’t going to take on $11.4 million in a rebuilding phase without a significant return. On the same token, the Pirates may be much more interested in Phillies prospects than Blanton and will only accept him to facilitate a deal. They’ll have to take borderline prospects and not top-of-the-line, projectable prospects.

So it’s not the perfect match, but it is a deal that could work well for both sides. Blanton, who is expendable because of the Phillies’ quartet of aces, could find a new home in Pittsburgh, where Doumit, who has become expendable by the recent acquisitions of Chris Snyder and Lyle Overbay and who will push Garrett Jones back out into right field, will find limited playing time.

If the trade is made and Doumit meets his great 2008 and down 2010 seasons in the middle, the Phillies will have turned an extra arm in that monstrous rotation into a switch-hitting outfielder with decent pop, the potential to hit for average and protection in the bottom half of the order. Not a bad deal. As always, though, dollars rule the day.

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Cliff Lee: 10 Reasons the Philadelphia Phillies Are Now the Favorites in the NL

The current National League Cy Young Award winner, former American League Cy Young Award winner and three-time 20-game winner. Two-time 20-game winner and a sixth-place finish in the 2010 National League Cy Young Award voting. 2008 National League Championship Series and 2008 World Series MVP. Add to that another former American League Cy Young Award winner with a 20-game win season under his belt, and you’ve assembled an impressive cast of starting pitchers (and a stocked trophy case.)

That’s exactly what the Philadelphia Phillies have done.

When the signing became official on Wednesday afternoon, the Phillies put names to that impressive resume, and effectively assembled one of the greatest rotations, on paper, to ever grace the world of baseball—Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee.

When the Phillies acquired Oswalt at the 2010 Trade Deadline, fans were ecstatic. Added to a rotation that already boasted powerful arms in Halladay and Hamels, the Philly faithful quickly dubbed the new big three with catchy nicknames like “Roy Story 2” and “H2O.” So when the Phillies “lurked on the periphery” long enough to swoop in and sign this year’s top free-agent prize, fans and analysts alike were quickly dubbing the quartet the “Phantastic Phour,” “the Phab Phour,” “Smokin’ Aces” and my personal favorite, “Charlie’s Aces.” On paper, this rotation has the potential to be one of the greatest rotations of all time and take the National League by storm.

But does the addition of Cliff Lee make the Phillies the best team in the National League?

The following 10 slides should show you just why it does.

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Cliff Lee: Philadelphia Phillies Enter Sweepstakes

Ruben Amaro Jr., Phillies General Manager, is a man of mystery.

Citing the team’s policy against discussing negotiations with players, he often leaves much of the fan base and baseball writers alike wondering about the state of the Phillies’ off-season.

So when rumors of a third team, after the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees, were becoming involved in the battle for Cliff Lee, baseball minds immediately began to gravitate towards the ever-secretive Philadelphia Phillies.

But how involved are they?

According to Jim Salisbury of CSNphilly.com, who spoke to the Phillies General Manager at the annual Winter Meetings last week, the Phillies were trying to “shoot for the moon” with potential deals, which Salisbury interpreted to mean the Phillies were laying the groundwork with Kansas City for a potential acquisition of the Royals’ ace, Zack Greinke.

However, a recent report from ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick suggests that the Phillies and Royals haven’t talked about Greinke, making a trade unlikely.

So if not Greinke, then who?

As the Yankees and Rangers await an answer from the free agent class’ top talent, baseball writers have been speculating over news of a third interested team, one that would offer fewer guaranteed years than Lee’s known suitors, but would be a serious threat to the Yankees’ and Rangers’ chances regardless.

That is a hefty assumption, since the Yankees are rumored to have offered the left hander a seven year deal worth about $160 million.

The Rangers, who remain wary of offering the 32-year-old Lee a guaranteed seven years, offered an equally absurd amount of money.

So why would Lee seriously consider another destination?

Though Lee himself has come out to state that the incident may have been blown out of proportion, it is worth noting that his wife, Kristen Lee, had an unpleasant experience at Yankee Stadium in 2010.

While Lee took the mound on the road in New York, Kristen sat beneath a group of disrespectful Yankees fans, who would go on to throw their garbage at and spit on her. While there are going to be rowdy fans in any ballpark, it is worth noting.

The Rangers, on the other hand, do not have anything of the sort worth mentioning.

In fact, new Rangers’ President, Hall of Fame pitcher, Nolan Ryan, is in an excellent position to offer Lee a huge contract.

The Rangers, who just signed a large deal with a local TV-network, are helped by the backing of a new ownership group, headed by Chuck Greenberg, who has made his interest in Lee noticeable after flying to the lefty’s home in Arkansas twice.

While it is noted that both Cliff and his wife enjoyed their time in Philadelphia, how likely is it that the ace could rejoin the Phillies?

Well, that remains to be seen.

The Phillies are a team very reluctant to offer free agents a seven year deal. Outside of Chase Utley’s seven-year contract extension, the team has found comfort in giving its players three-year deals, a la Brad Lidge, Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, Placido Polanco, Roy Halladay, and Carlos Ruiz. 

So while Jayson Stark of ESPN believes that the Phillies are the third team in the Lee sweepstakes, he also notes that Lee will have to take less then seven guaranteed years.  

Guaranteed is the key word.

Lee, who will be 32 on Opening Day, has faced skepticism about his health, and whether or not he’ll be able to endure a seven-year contract.

The Yankees, who are the only team known to have offered seven years, probably only did so because they are desperate for starting pitching.

The Rangers remain firm at six years, while this elusive “mystery team” is offering less guaranteed years than both.

That’s the Phillies’ motive.

The Phillies, who were unwilling to offer Jayson Werth four guaranteed years, made him a very similar contract offer—three years with a vesting option for a fourth year based on performance.

Who is to say that they can’t offer Lee the same type of deal?

Envision, for a moment, the Phillies offering Cliff Lee a guaranteed four-year deal worth $23 million a year.

A four-year, $69 million deal is not a bad haul for a 32-year-old late bloomer.

Add to that some interesting contractual language, such as vesting options over the next three years, which become club options if the left hander fails to reach the quota, for games started, number of innings pitched, etc., and the Phillies and Cliff Lee could each reach a valuable agreement—a seven-year contract totaling $161 million.

The Phillies have a lot of valuable offers to make Lee, outside of money.

They will enter the 2011 season with the greatest “top three” in baseball, and arguably the best rotation in baseball.

If he were to join fellow aces Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt in red-pinstripes, the Phillies would have a perfectly balanced rotation—Halladay (R) / Lee (L) / Oswalt (R) / Hamels (L) / Blanton (R).

There are no guarantees in baseball, but the Phillies are early World Series favorites, and have assembled the greatest rotation in the history of baseball.

Bringing his family back to a city that showed him great respect and endured months of devastation after he left—all of these are points of interest for the 32-year-old family man, who has now appeared in the World Series twice and has yet to walk away with a ring.

Can the Phillies land Cliff Lee?—Absolutely.

However, it is going to take a bit of compromise from both sides.

The Phillies will undoubtedly be forced to move Joe Blanton or Raul Ibanez to make room on the 2011 payroll, and Lee will have to leave a large amount of money on the table to go to a place he is familiar with.

Any way you slice it, Cliff Lee makes any rotation better, regardless of his price tag.

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“Lights Out” or Lit Up? Which Brad Lidge Will Show Up For The Phillies In 2011?

Since his acquisition from the Houston Astros in 2008, Brad Lidge has been like a roller-coaster ride for the Phillies and their fans, and we’ve all just been along for the ride.

From the highs of his perfect season in 2008, to the lows of his league leading 11 blown saves in 2009, Lidge has become one of the most unpredictable closers in all of baseball, forcing fans to hold their breath as the ball leaves his hand.

Seeming to have rebounded in 2010, what can the Phillies expect out of Brad Lidge in 2011?

Being able to predict how Lidge will perform in the future is generated through understanding what made him so good, or so bad, in the past.

When the Phillies acquired Lidge from the Astros in 2008, they were expecting to get a dominant pitcher who desperately needed a change of scenery.

After years of mediocre to below average closers, the Phillies sent a couple of top prospects in Michael Bourn and Michael Costanzo, along with reliever Geoff Geary, to Houston for Lidge, and his impact was made immediately.

Over the first three months of the 2008 season, Lidge threw 32 innings as the Phillies’ new closer, posting an ERA of 0.85 and recording 19 out of 19 saves.

He hit his first rough patch in a Phillies uniform in July of ’08, where he allowed 8 earned runs in 15 innings, but thanks to an outstanding offense and a bit of luck, still managed to convert six out of six save opportunities.

Over the final two-plus months of the season, Lidge would make a bit of history for a historic Phillies team. He converted all 15 of his remaining save opportunities, with an ERA of 1.62.

Halfway through a season that saw Lidge convert a perfect 41 regular season save opportunities, then Phillies General Manager Pat Gillick rewarded his closer with a 3 year, $37.5 million contract, with a club option for 2012.

The gesture at the time was sound. After years of closers like Jose Mesa and Tom Gordon, the Phillies were locking up a man who was arguably considered the best closer in the National League.

The contract, signed in July 2008, had Philadelphians excited. Finally, a “lights out” closer in the ninth inning, and over the second half of the 2008 season, Lidge did not disappoint.

However, the following season would have Phillies fans and management alike second guessing their decision.

Lidge’s perfect 2008 season may have had a negative effect on him after all. After piling up 69.1 innings in 2008, he pitched through a sore arm for most of Spring Training in 2009, and questions of his health began to arise after a horrendous April that saw Lidge post an ERA above 7 in 8.2 innings of work.

After posting similar numbers in May, Lidge’s health concerns finally came to a head, when he missed most of June with injuries to both his right knee and pitching elbow.

Expected to bounce back after fully recovering from his injuries, Lidge disappointed. He would finish the 2009 season with 11 blown saves, the most of any pitcher in baseball, and barely clinging on to the role of closer, with set-up man Ryan Madson barking at his heels.

After posting 2009 totals of 0-8 with an ERA of 7.21, many fans were wondering if rewarding Lidge with a contract before his prior deal expired was a good idea. With one fantastic season and one horrendous season in tow, what did 2010 hold for Lidge?

Lidge’s 2010 campaign started like his 2009 season: filled with injuries. He went under the knife in January of 2010, having surgeries on both his pitching elbow and his right knee.

After missing the first month of the season, fans feared for the closer when he surrendered a home run to the first batter he faced in his return.

After struggling to find himself through the first half of the season, the dominant Lidge returned in August and September, where he tossed 24.2 innings of baseball to the tune of a 0.73 ERA.

He managed to turn in a decent season in 2010, going 1-1 with an ERA of 2.96 in 45.2 innings, collecting 27 saves along the way.

Uncovering what kind of season Lidge will have in 2011 is as simple as breaking down what makes him effective.

When the Phillies acquired Lidge from Houston, he was known as a two-pitch closer: a good fastball and a nasty slider. However, before his perfect season in 2008, Lidge added another pitch to his repertoire: a changeup.

These three pitches, over the course of the next three years, would determine in some way, shape, or form, what kind of season Lidge would have.

In 2008, Lidge’s most effective pitch was his slider, which he threw 50.7 percent of the time. What made this his most effective pitch was the number of ways that he was able to use it in different counts.

Able to control it to the maximum extent, he was able to paint both corners to get ahead in the count, or let the bottom fall out and make opposing batters look foolish.

Coming in at 85 mph with a sharp break, hitters had little time to react. Shrinking their reaction time even further was the fact that Lidge threw his second best pitch, a straight, 4-seam fastball, at 94 mph, 43 percent of the time, forcing hitters to “sit on” one of the two pitches: will he throw the sharp breaking slider, or the high cheese?

Realizing that hitters could predict one of his two pitches, Lidge added a third pitch to his arsenal. He threw his changeup a rare 5.4 percent of the time, keeping tough hitters off balance. At 84 mph, the straight chageup was a vast difference from his 94 mph fastball.

This allowed Lidge to become one of the most effective strikeout pitchers in baseball. In just 69.1 innings, Lidge struck out 92 batters, which translates to a K/9 of 11.94, among the league leaders for qualifying pitchers in 2008.

Never known for his control, he was also able to minimize the number of walks he allowed: 4.54 BB/9 in 2008. His greatest statistical advantage was that he gave up the home run on rare occasions (just twice in 2008) good for a HR/9 rate of 0.54.

He left an astounding 82.9 percent of runners on base, one of the most essential roles of the closer. This is what made Lidge so effective. He works backwards, according to most traditional baseball minds.

Instead of throwing his devastating slider off of his fastball, he throws his fastball off of his slider, mixing in an unpredictable changeup. Limiting walks and home runs, and piling up strikeouts is Lidge’s greatest asset. So, what went wrong in 2009?

In 2009, Lidge reduced the rate of his slider (47.2%), throwing it an almost equal amount of times as he threw his fastball (49.3%), and mixed in his changeup even less often than the year prior (2.2%).

Plagued by injuries for much of the year, many baseball minds, including Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee, believed that the increased use of Lidge’s fastball was his way of saying that he was uncomfortable with throwing his other pitches, an unfortunate side effect of elbow and knee troubles that forced him to the DL.

While averaging similar velocities on the speeds of both his slider and fastball, Lidge also showed a tendency to overthrow his changeup in 2009, increasing its average speed to about 85 mph.

Though it doesn’t seem like a major change, a decreasing disparity between the speeds of his fastball and changeup made a world of difference in the eyes of opposing batters.

Lidge’s 2009 struggles were very closely related with his control, or, lack there of it. His BB/9 increased from 4.54 in 2008 to 5.22 in 2009.

Pair that with a K/9 that decreased from 11.94 in 2008 to 9.36 in 2009, and the result that you get is that opposing batters are putting more of his pitches into play, evidenced by a ridiculous BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) of .369.

With those numbers fluctuating from years prior, it was important for Lidge to keep runners off base, and if they were to reach, to leave them there. However, his LOB% was way down from 2008 to a sad 62.8% in 2009.

Runners who reached base against Lidge weren’t often left there for long: he surrendered 11 home runs in his worst season as a closer.

In 2010, it appeared as though Lidge figured something out. Feeling good coming off of surgery, he returned a lot of confidence to his slider, using it more than ever (58.3%).

While nearly completely throwing his changeup by the wayside, he threw his fastball 38.6% of the time.

He made up for the lack of a changeup by slowing his slider down, now averaging about 83 mph, and throwing his fastball at an average 91 mph.

“Back to basics” was the 2010 theme for Brad Lidge, as he also saw a rise in his K/9 (10.25) and a decline in his BB/9 (4.73). 

While home runs were still a problem, he was able to decrease their damage against him, limiting his HR/9 to 0.99. He stranded 82 percent of runners left on base, and his astronomical 2009 BABIP came back down to .260.

So what can we expect out of Brad Lidge in 2011? “Lights out” or “Lit Up”?

The amount of Lidge’s success seems to be synonymous with how confident he is in throwing all three of his pitches.

While he’s shown over the course of his career that he can be successful while throwing just his fastball and slider, the presence of a changeup puts another thought in an opposing hitter’s mind.

The first thing that he will need to do is get back to pitching “backwards” in the count, for instance, throwing his slider in fastball counts, and his fastball when the hitter can expect a slider.

One promising note from Lidge’s 2010 season is that he realizes that his slider is his true bread and butter.

If he throws his slider 50-55 percent of the time, while mixing in his fastball and changeup, he will get back to being the strikeout pitcher that threw a perfect 2008 season.

Control is also going to be a major factor going forward. Lidge has shown in years past that he works much better with the bases empty.

Once a runner reaches first, Lidge’s slow delivery makes him very susceptible to stolen bases.

Keeping his home run totals down, and leaving runners on base were two of the things that Lidge did best in 2008, and will factor largely into his success, or failure, in 2011.

Bill James, who is a well recognized stat projection analyst, has little faith in Brad Lidge for the 2011 season. Used as a “best case scenario” by most baseball experts, James’ stat line for Lidge reads 4-3, with a 3.45 ERA and 30 saves.

However, if the last two months of Lidge’s 2010 season are an indication of anything, Phillies fans are in for a treat from a healthy, confident Brad Lidge in 2011.

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Make Way for “The Big Sweat:” Phillies Sign Left-Handed Reliever Dennys Reyes

The Phillies made some progress in their offseason crusade to revamp their bullpen today by signing left-hander Dennys Reyes to a one year contract worth $1.1 million, with a mutual option for 2012 worth $1.35 million, according to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes.

Reyes, 33, spent the 2010 season with the St. Louis Cardinals, where he appeared in 59 games as a left-handed specialist, and threw a total of 38 innings. Over that span of time, Reyes was 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA.

Reyes had a streaky campaign with the Cardinals last year. After posting an ERA of 0.71 over the first three months of the season, he struggled in June, posting an ERA of 12.46 in 4.1 innings.

After bringing his ERA back down to 3.24 in July, Reyes saw limited action in the final months of the season, posting an ERA of 6.08.

What is sure to interest the Phillies the most about Reyes is his continued success against left-handed hitters. In 2010 alone, Reyes threw 19 innings combined versus left-handed hitters, striking out 20, walking 11 and allowing a total of six earned runs. He posted a K/9 percentage of 9.21 against left-handed hitters, but also walked 5.21 lefties per nine.

His streaky control is sure to be his biggest concern entering the 2011 season, but the Phillies have traversed this path before—he is very similar, statistically, to former Philly J.C. Romero.

In total in 2010, Reyes walked 4.17 batters per nine. While that is an improvement over Romero’s 7.12 BB/9 percentage, the Phillies would like to see Reyes bring his walks down so that he could be relied on in late innings against tough left handed hitters.

Nicknamed “The Big Sweat” for obvious reasons, Reyes brings a standard repertoire of pitches to the table. He throws a straight, four-seam fastball that averages 90mph and loves to throw a tailing slider away from left-handed hitters off of that.

Over the course of his career, he has also been known to mix in a two-seam, moving a fastball, changeup and average curveball.

We first learned of the Phillies interest in Reyes around noon yesterday, when reports from the Winter Meetings in Florida indicated the Phillies had met with his agent, and showed strong interest in the left-hander, along with the Florida Marlins.

The Phillies emerged as the favorite to sign Reyes last night, and Ruben Amaro Jr. and Co. hammered out the contract details this afternoon.

Even with Reyes and fellow left handed reliever Antonio Bastado aboard, the Phillies will continue looking at different ways of upgrading their bullpen.

They have been in touch with the agent of free-agent right-hander Chad Durbin, and made an offer to left-hander George Sherrill before he signed with the Atlanta Braves this afternoon.

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