‘Tis The Season: 5 Crafty Ways For Phillies to Score at Annual Winter Meetings

In past years, the Phillies have been huge players at the Winter Meetings. In 2009, they shocked the baseball world by acquiring Toronto’s ace, Roy Halladay, and sending another former Cy Young, Cliff Lee, to Seattle. In 2008, the team signed free agents Jamie Moyer and Raul Ibanez to multi-year deals, and in 2007, the team signed outfielder Geoff Jenkins to a two-year contract. So what do the Phillies have in store for 2010?

According to Phillies beat writer Todd Zolecki, it could be a quiet winter for the Phillies.

Despite losing free-agent outfielder Jayson Werth to the division-rival Washington Nationals, the team will look to replace him on the cheap. The Phillies and their fans have known for quite a while that Werth would head to the highest bidder and, in the long run, the Phillies simply didn’t feel that Werth was worth (no pun intended) the $126-million dollars the cellar-dwelling Nationals gave him, so maybe it didn’t sting as bad.

With $146 million already committed to the payroll in 2011, the Phillies aren’t expected to be big players at this year’s annual Winter Meetings. That hasn’t stopped them in the past, however.

Last year, just a day after General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told the media  that his team wasn’t interested in acquiring Toronto Blue Jays’ ace Roy Halladay, the Phillies became one of four teams that struck the offseason’s biggest blockbuster, with the Phillies acquiring Roy Halladay and prospects Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and JC Ramirez, and trading Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners. The fact of the matter remains that the Phillies like to do things under the radar.

So while the team postures as though it isn’t willing to make any big moves this year, I’ll speculate otherwise. After all, the Phillies have an odd knack for catching people off guard and pulling the trigger when least expected.

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Rule 5 Surprise: Potential Impact Arms For the Phillies In the Upcoming Draft

In recent years, the Philadelphia Phillies have made most of their offseason noise in big trades and free agent signings, bringing names like Roy Halladay, Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge to the City of Brotherly Love. However, in the past, the Phillies structured their roster in different ways, including a plethora of minor league deals, trading big names for young potential, spending heavily on the first year player draft and taking a gamble in the Rule 5 Draft. Which, in recent years, has landed All-Star outfielder Shane Victorino and long-relief man David Herndon.

Though the Rule 5 Draft has changed over the course of Major League Baseball history, the concept has remained the same—prevent teams from stockpiling players in their minor league system when other teams are willing to give them a chance to play at the Major League level. When the following conditions are met, a player becomes unprotected, and is then exposed to the rest of the league.

• If signed at age 18 or younger and the player has been in the organization for five years, he is eligible.
• If signed at age 19 or older and the player has been in the organization for four years, he is eligible.
• The player is not added to the Major League organization’s 40-man roster.

Drafting a player is not free, however. Any team that wants to take a gamble on a player must keep two very strategic conditions in mind: Are they willing to pay the $50,000 fee and are they willing to keep this player on their Major League roster for an entire season?

The rules of the Rule 5 Draft states that once a player is drafted, he must remain on the Major League club for the entirety of the forthcoming season. If a team wants to demote him, they must first offer said player back to his former team. If the former team denies to accept the player back, or a team keeps the player on their Major League roster for the entire season, they are then able to option him to the minor leagues.

The Rule 5 Draft is a calculated risk. Recent history has shown that the risk is well worth the reward, however, as names like Johan Santana, Evan Meek, Dan Uggla, Joakim Soria and Shane Victorino, all taken in the Rule 5 Draft, have flourished into all-stars. 

So with that in mind, the following five pitchers could all contribute to the Phillies some way in 2011, but will any of them be a true diamond in the rough?

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Deja Vu? Why Ben Francisco Is Poised to Become the Next Jayson Werth

Over the past couple of seasons, Jayson Werth has become immensely popular, both in the city of Philadelphia and around Major League Baseball, for his crazy hair and beard combo, power from the right side of the plate and his strong arm from right field, among other things, making him one of the prime free agent targets this offseason.

Rumors of seven-year contracts and the asking price of $100 million have forced people to forget that in the not so distant past, Werth was but a simple platoon player in the Phillies’ outfield, begging for a chance to become an everyday player.

Now that he is one and is likely to leave the Phillies via free agency, there has been much ado about his replacement in right field.

Despite general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. voicing the team’s need to find a right-handed platoon partner for up-and-coming right fielder Domonic Brown, there aren’t too many attractive options available through the free agent market. Even more so, the Phillies already have an in-house, right-handed hitting outfielder who bears a lot of similar traits to those of Werth.

With a lack of significant upgrades and his cost effectiveness in mind, is Ben Francisco poised for a breakout year in 2011?

Let’s set the stage a bit.

After a disappointing first round exit at the hands of the Colorado Rockies in the 2007 playoffs, the Phillies were facing a few contract options before the 2008 season began, the most notable of which was a bidding war over free agent outfielder Aaron Rowand.

While en route to becoming a National League powerhouse, the Phillies were still a moderately conservative team entering the offseason prior to 2008 and unwilling to commit five years to Rowand despite their interest in retaining the outfielder. It was reported that the Phillies offered Rowand a three-year deal, but he was not interested.

In the long run, the San Francisco Giants offered Rowand a five-year, $60 million contract, which he accepted.

Despite Rowand being a Type A free agent offered arbitration, the Giants’ first round pick in the upcoming First Year Player Draft was protected, and thus, they did not have to surrender the pick to the Phillies as compensation for signing Rowand.

The Phillies instead received a supplemental first round pick, slotted behind the first round. Giants fans should be grateful, as they would go ahead to pick catcher Buster Posey with the fifth overall pick, while the Phillies drafted a bust in the outfield in Zach Collier.

Without Rowand, the Phillies went a different route in shoring up their right field situation, ironically similar to what is happening with Jayson Werth in 2010. Werth was already under contract as a reclamation project in 2008, and the Phillies liked what he brought to the table from the right side of the plate.

In 2007, Werth had absolutely mashed left-handed pitching, hitting .375 with five home runs, all the while compiling an on-base percentage of .467 and slugging a cool .591. The Phillies saw Werth as the ideal player to platoon, as his numbers against right-handed pitching were significantly weaker.

The Phillies set their sights on a longtime Milwaukee Brewer who had been known for his success against right-handed pitching and turned a couple of heads by signing right fielder Geoff Jenkins, who they’d already designated as Werth’s platoon partner, to a two-year, $13 million contract, with an option for a third year that could push the total value of the deal to $20 million.

The Phillies were paying Jenkins to play like a full-time outfielder while reducing him to a platoon role.

Nonetheless, Jenkins played some uninspiring baseball for the Phillies in 2008. Signed to specifically contribute against right-handed pitching, Jenkins only managed to hit .256 with nine home runs for the Phillies from the left side of the plate.

It became quickly apparent that Jenkins’ numbers against-right handed pitching were not all that better than Werth’s, and by the All-Star break, Jenkins had been reduced to a bench player. The Phillies handed the job to their new, full-time right fielder, Jayson Werth, who, after helping the Phillies to a World Series title in 2008, went on to establish himself as one of the best right-handed hitting outfielders in baseball in 2009 and 2010.

All of that is ancient history now.

However, if history has taught us one thing, it’s that it often repeats itself. Just as they did entering the 2008 season, the Phillies have one half of a platoon seemingly committed to right field in 2011, that being lefty Domonic Brown. Heralded as one of the game’s top prospects in 2010, Brown is looking to finally break free from the shackles of “prospectdom” and into the spotlight as a starter in the major league.

This isn’t a simple transition, and thus, Ruben Amaro Jr. has stated the team’s interest in finding a right-handed hitter to platoon with Brown in right field. Instead of scouring a weak free agent market for a right-handed-hitting outfielder, the Phillies may be best suited in slotting one of their own into that position—that being Ben Francisco.

Francisco, 29, was acquired by the Phillies alongside Cliff Lee at the 2009 trade deadline, where he has since served as the team’s top right-handed pinch hitter.

Interestingly enough, Francisco is not unfamiliar with a starting role, as he started 98 games in the outfield in 2008 with the Cleveland Indians, proving that he can cut it as a major league outfielder by posting a slash line (average / on-base percentage / slugging percentage) of .266/.327/.441. Crowded outfields in Philadelphia may have reduced his role, but Francisco is poised for a breakout season, if given the chance.

Against left-handed pitching in 2010, Francisco had a respectable slash line of .284/.344/.557. That’s good enough for an OPS (On-base + Slugging Percentage) of .901 against left-handed pitching. Jayson Werth’s OPS against left-handed pitching? .881.

The Phillies have trusted Francisco in big roles before as well. For instance, he served as the designated hitter in New York against the Yankees in the 2009 World Series and spelled Raul Ibanez in left field during the 2010 National League Championship Series.

However, what may appeal most to the Phillies is the money they’d be saving by platooning Ben Francisco and Domonic Brown in right field.

Jayson Werth made about $10 million patrolling right field in Citizens Bank Park in 2010. The Phillies could save about $8.5 million by paying Domonic Brown, who will make the league minimum, and Ben Francisco, who could earn close to $1 million in 2011. That would allow the Phillies to spend money addressing other issues, most notably on the bullpen.

The Phillies may not be creating a super outfielder by platooning Francisco and Brown in 2011, but they are doing a couple of very important things.

Firstly, they are getting Brown used to playing daily at the major league level. They’ll also be giving Francisco a chance to prove himself as an everyday player in Philadelphia after paying his due diligence on the Phillies’ bench. If he proves to do anything similar to what Werth did in 2008, the Phillies will have found their starting left fielder for 2012, when Ibanez’s time will almost certainly have come to an end in Philadelphia.

Not many teams were willing to give Jayson Werth a real chance to be an everyday player, and look at him now. While the Phillies could spend on righties like Jeff Francoeur or Jermaine Dye, they may have a diamond waiting in the rough in Ben Francisco.

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Phillies Bullpen Targets For 2011: Rebuilding the Bridge to Lidge

In a season plagued by underachievement, inconsistency, and injuries, one controllable aspect of the Philadelphia Phillies‘ 2010 is the bullpen.

From the dominant bullpen that lead the Phillies to a World Series title in 2008, earning the nickname the “Bridge to Lidge,” the Phillies’ relief corps of 2010 took a big step back, finishing 18th in ERA despite pitching the fewest innings in the National League—with only the Seattle Mariners logging more out west in the American League.

It was no surprise to hear that the bullpen was GM Ruben Amaro Jr.’s top priority entering the off-season.

Even though he has already resigned Jose Contreras, the Phillies still have major question marks thus far. Along with left handed specialist JC Romero, Chad Durbin, middle inning work-horse, is a free agent.

The 2010 performances of rookies David Herndon and Antonio Bastardo surely didn’t leave opposing hitters shaking in their cleats. Many questions and few possible answers.

With these variables in mind, many Philadelphia fans are asking the question: “How can we turn this sorry excuse for ‘relief’ into the once feared ‘Bridge to Lidge?'”

Well, it starts with the man himself. The Phillies only have three certainties in 2011: Contreras, set-up man Ryan Madson, and closer Brad Lidge. They were the few bright spots of a weak 2010 campaign.

Contreras was a work-horse out of the Phillies ‘pen in 2010, logging innings and pitching to the tune of a 3.34 ERA. Most importantly, he was able to remain healthy for the entire season, earning himself a two year deal in free agency.

Despite missing time with a self inflicted broken toe, Madson continued his streak of dominance in the eighth inning. The only remnant of the 2008 “Bridge to Lidge,” Madson was stellar in 2010, throwing 53 innings of 2.55 ERA ball.

Of course, there is no bridge without a destination. Lidge finally returned to form in 2010, gathering 27 saves and compiling a 2.96 ERA. Lidge’s best work was done over the final months of the season. However, he threw 24.2 innings to a tune of an 0.76 ERA.

So assuming that these three guys can carry their success into 2011, how can the Phillies complement them this off-season?

The answer is through the free agent market. With Romero not expected to return, the Phillies’ first task in rebuilding the ‘pen will be to add a couple of left handed specialists. Left handers Hisanori Takahashi and Pedro Feliciano, both former Mets, seem to make the most sense.

Takahashi seems to be the best option for the Phillies. He was known best with the Mets for his flexibility in roles. He spent time in 2010 as a starting pitcher, a middle reliever, Francisco Rodriguez’s set-up man, and as the team’s closer, when “K-Rod” became ineligible for the last portion of the season.

The Phillies are expected to make Takahashi an offer, as the team could benefit from help in the areas of starting pitching depth and left handed relief. Takahashi was especially tough against left handed hitters in 2010, striking out more than ten left handed batters per nine innings and allowing only two earned runs from the left side of the plate—neither of which were via the homerun.

The Phillies may be able to lure him to Philadelphia by offering him the same type of deal the team offered to Chan Ho Park—an offer to compete for the fifth starter’s spot and a guaranteed spot in the bullpen. While he may be the most expensive option, he may also be the most important sign.

Feliciano has been a thorn in the side of left handed Phillies since 2003, his first full time gig with the Mets. Often called on to face tough outs like Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, Feliciano had become a staple in late innings of Phillies and Mets games. Signing him for that reason may be a plus in and of itself.

He would more than likely be a major upgrade to the oft-injured, oft-inconsistent, JC Romero. Feliciano lead the league in appearances for a reliever last season, logging 62 IP.

While teams may try and drive his price down, by arguing that he has a lot of strain on his arm, his agent will surely try and drive his price up, by proving that he’s been the model of consistency.

Feliciano remained true to his bread and butter in 2010, as he was nearly untouchable from the left side of the plate. Left handed hitters hit only .218 against him, while he struck out over nine lefties per nine innings. His numbers against right handed hitters are awful, but any team with common sense will use him strategically in the latter innings against left handed hitters.

The Phillies have also expressed interest in bringing back Chad Durbin, though they may have been discouraged by rumors that he will seek a multi-year contract as a starting pitcher, despite not having done so since 2007. With that in mind, the Phillies may check in on other options. A couple names stand out to me: Matt Guerrier, Koji Uehara, Dan Wheeler, and Chan Ho Park.

A member of the Twins bullpen in 2010, Guerrier is an interesting case. Despite being a “type A” free agent, he wasn’t offered arbitration, and it won’t cost a draft pick to sign him. He posted an ERA of 3.17, but his FIP of 4.23 suggests that he was extremely lucky.

Any team that values saber-metrics realized this, and it’s most likely the reason he wasn’t offered arbitration by the Twins. He’s not as valuable as his basic numbers appear. If the Phillies can get him at a good price, he’d be a good sign to work in the middle innings, alongside right hander Jose Contreras. 

That puts Uehara in a similar ship.

The Japanese import (a lifetime starter in Japan) was stellar as the Orioles closer in 2010. He only picked up 13 saves for the O’s, but, had they been a winning team, that number would have probably been tripled. He showed impeccable control in 2010, striking out 11 hitters per nine, while only walking one per nine. His ERA of 2.86 was very, very good, and even then, his FIP suggests that he was unlucky, at 2.40.

If I had to have one right handed bullpen arm, this is the guy that I would want.

The Phillies may not be his top choice, mainly because they are already committed to Madson and Lidge at the back of the bullpen, but money talks. If the Phillies can lure him to the City of Brotherly Love, he’d provide much of the same things that Hisanori Takahashi would.

Wheeler and Park round out potential right handed bullpen arms for the Phillies.

Wheeler pitched for the Rays in 2010, and he can be compared to Guerrier. Despite having a good ERA of 3.35, his FIP of 4.11 suggests that he caught some breaks in 2010. His HR/9 is a cause for concern, especially with the way the ball jumps off the bats some nights at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. As long as he’s kept in the middle of the pen, he’d be a good addition.

The same could be said for Park, who would be an interesting minor league signing. The Phillies expressed interest in bringing the 17 year veteran back after the 2009 season, but he chose to sign with the World Series counterpart Yankees. He was designated for assignment after a disappointing start, and later claimed by the Pittsburgh Pirates on waivers, where he was equally unimpressive. A chance to rebuild value in a place where he was comfortable might sound appealing to him.

Despite being called a weak free agent market, the market for relievers is surprisingly deep. However, some in house options may be as appealing because of the money they’d save turning to them. Minor leaguers Scott Mathieson and Justin De Fratus will get a lot of looks in spring training.

Mathieson, 27, is one of those “feel good” baseball stories. After two successful Tommy John surgeries, the right handed fireballer came out, well, throwing fire in 2010. In 64 innings with the Phillies Triple-A affiliate Iron Pigs, Mathieson pitched to an ERA of 2.94, earning his cup of coffee with the big league club as a September call up—all the while, averaging 95 MPH on his fastball.

De Fratus, 23, turned some heads in the Phillies organization after splitting time with A+ Clearwater and AA Reading. Throwing a combined 65 innings, De Fratus pitched to an ERA of 1.99, his success culminating with the Phillies—adding him to the 40-man roster to protect him in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. A surprise in 2010, De Fratus will get a lot of looks this spring, and may break camp with the major league Phillies.

Of course, a plethora of familiar names will get their looks as well.

In the second year of his deal, Danys Baez may be best described as addition by subtraction. He was largely disappointing in 2010, and hopefully, isn’t guaranteed a spot because of the money he is set to make.

On the other end of the spectrum, guys like Antonio Bastardo and David Herndon are making close to nothing. Bastardo has a ton of upside, and it’s clear the organization likes him. However, his change-up is underwhelming, and his fastball/slider combination lacks control.

The long reliever in 2010, Herndon remained on the Phillies roster only because they wanted to keep him in the organization. (They would have had to offer him back to the Angels if they wanted to send him to the minors, since he was a Rule 5 Draft pick.) With guys like Kyle Kendrick, Vance Worley, and Drew Carpenter expected to compete for the fifth starter’s spot in spring training, Herndon may be out of a job once one of those guys loses.

If this article proves anything, it’s that the Phillies have numerous options to replenish the bullpen. Be it adding talented specialists like Feliciano and Uehara, or removing contract albatrosses like Baez, the Phillies can obviously afford to rebuild the bullpen. How they do so may effect the outlook on October 2011. If teams like the ’08 Phillies and ’10 Giants showed us anything, it’s that a talented bullpen goes a long way in competing in October.

With a couple of smart moves by Ruben Amaro Jr. and Co., the Phillies can move from troubled waters, and the Bridge to Lidge can deliver the fans of the Philadelphia Phillies to the promised land once again.  

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Duke-Ing It Out: Can Zach Duke Help the Phillies Rotation in 2011?

At first glance, the answer would be a resonating no.

When discussing Zach Duke, though, it is important to take a glance behind his outrageous 2010 numbers and look deeper into what he would really mean to any organization moving forward in 2011.

At age 27, Duke has surpassed a point in his career where most pitchers at the major-league level have established themselves as talented assets, moving into the prime of their careers.

Duke’s case is quite unique, however, as the once-highly anticipated Pittsburgh Pirates prospect has regressed into obscurity.

Following a 2010 campaign where Duke pitched to a record of 8-15 with an ERA of 5.72, he was designated for assignment by the Pirates on Friday afternoon.

With numbers like that, it is hard to make a case for Duke to be an effective part of any pitching rotation in 2011, but with the Philadelphia Phillies, I’ll make a special case.

The Phillies will be heading into the 2011 season in the conversation for having the best rotation in baseball.

Anchored by 2010 National League Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay, the Phillies will follow their ace with dominant pitchers in their own right, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt, and serviceable right-hander Joe Blanton to round out their rotation.

One through four, the Phillies have a solid rotation. However, the fifth starter’s position is going to be up for grabs, and the Phillies have little organizational depth to create competition.

This is where a guy like Zach Duke could become beneficial to an organization like the Phillies, who undoubtedly will try to round up some competition to compete for that fifth starter’s spot and draw the best out of each of the competitors.

A few in-house names will compete for the job, headlined by guys who have each started a game for the Phillies in 2010: Kyle Kendrick, Vance Worley and Andrew Carpenter.

The trio features a couple of unique angles. On one hand, Kendrick has been a serviceable starter for the Phillies over the course of his career, posting a career record of 35-24 and an ERA of 4.69.

However, some of Kendrick’s 2010 numbers have become a cause for concern in the organization, highlighted by the worst strikeouts per nine Innings (K/9) among qualifying pitchers in Major League Baseball (just 4.18).

A lot of minds surrounding the Phillies organization believe that Kendrick isn’t even the favorite to win the job out of spring training, bestowing that honor upon another Phillies’ right-hander, Worley.

Although his time in the major leagues was brief in 2010, Worley impressed all the right people, including manager Charlie Manuel.

Worley logged a total of 13 innings with the Phillies in 2010, posting an impressive ERA of 1.38.

Worley showed that he doesn’t have to rely on his fastball to retire professional hitters, throwing his breaking pitches, an overhand curve-ball and a slider, a combined 29.9 percent of the time, mixing in a low-90s fastball and a change-up as well.

The final member of the obvious, in-house trio is the least likely of the three to break with the big-league club, right-hander Andrew Carpenter.

His time with the 2010 Phillies was very brief, as he only saw three innings of work with the big-league club, and allowed three earned runs over that span.

While only one of these three has a chance to crack the rotation, it’s likely that at least one other will make the Phillies bullpen as well.

So, where does Zach Duke fit in all of this, you wonder?

Duke has lived in basic obscurity over the past couple of seasons with the bottom-dwelling Pittsburgh Pirates, for a while serving as the ace of a weak pitching staff.

Called up to the major leagues at a young age, only 22, Duke provides what many 27-year-olds don’t in the big leagues—experience.

A team like the Phillies will be interested in bringing in experienced starting pitchers to show what they’ve got in spring training, providing competition to young guys like Vance Worley and Drew Carpenter, while sending Kyle Kendrick the subliminal message that he won’t just be handed a spot in the 2011 rotation.

Over the course of the past three seasons, Duke has had success pitching in Citizens Bank Park, one of the reasons the Phillies may give him a look.

In two starts there, Duke pitched to a 1-1 record, with an ERA of 2.57. The only ballparks he’s been more successful in were AT&T Park in San Francisco and Petco Park in San Diego.

The Phillies will consider a number of variables. Can Duke regain his form? Is his 2010 decrease in velocity going to be a constant decline? Are his numbers in the Bank a fluke?

Can he perform better as a bottom-of-the-rotation arm, in the shadows of decorated aces like Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels?

Surely, he’ll be on the Phillies free-agent radar in a weak market. Who knows? Maybe Duke wins the job out of spring training and reclaims his 2005 form, when he was 8-2 with an ERA of 1.81.

The Phillies will need to take a chance on him to find out.

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