MLB Speculation: Philadelphia Phillies 2008 World Championship a Fluke?

Six days later, this article can finally be written.

If you’re a fan of the Philadelphia Phillies, it’s hard not to let your emotions get the best of you. Especially after witnessing what 45,000-plus at Broad and Pattison, as well as millions of television viewers around the globe, saw for themselves in Game 5 of the 2011 National League Division Series between the Phils and the St. Louis Cardinals.

The shock that overcame the crowd at the Citizens Bank Park and the entirety of Phillies’ nation, had more to do with the way the Phillies lost as opposed to the fact that they did lose. When you get to a Game 5 in a best-of-five series, any self-respecting fan is aware that said game could be the team’s last of the season.

But, 1-0? Really?

With that loss, and three consecutive disappointments in the postseason, comes that nagging voice in the back of your mind asking the inevitable question:  Was the Phillies’ 2008 World Championship a fluke? The answer, I’m here to tell you, is yes… sort of.

Now, before you fire off your dissenting emails and comments below, I should tell you that, as this article will point out, my use of the word “fluke” does not have the negative connotation you might think it does. Allow me to explain.

First, let’s be real. If the Phillies had beaten the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox in the 2008 Fall Classic, we wouldn’t really be having this discussion. Instead, the Phillies ousted the inexperienced and unpedigreed Tampa Bay Rays in fairly convincing fashion.

Were the Phillies blessed with the luck of the draw in 2008? Perhaps, but remember, they had to get past the Dodgers, a team that everyone had advancing to the World Series thanks to a mid-season acquisition of Manny Ramirez. As you will see, most of the surprising champions of the last decade had that signature upset victory. For the Phillies in ’08, the Dodgers were it.

Still, the competition the Phillies tore through on their way to the Commissioner’s Trophy in ’08 (Brewers, Dodgers, Rays) had not had a lot of recent success, and certainly did not possess the pedigree or the mystique that the Yanks and Sox did, and still do.

This, alone, exacerbates the appearance of a lucky journey to a world championship. But let’s dig deeper.

Increased expectations are the worst thing to happen to this franchise. It is easy to sneak up on teams and win a World Series when Brett Myers is the No. 2 starter in your rotation.

When you add guys like Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee again and Hunter Pence, however, the target on your franchise’s back grows that much larger. Everyone brings their A-game and their A-gameplan to the ballpark when they face you. That, no doubt, has made the Phils’ quest for a second world title in the Charlie Manuel Era that much more elusive.

And don’t think it’s all external, either. You don’t think guys like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and even Pence know and feel the enormity of the expectations placed on this team by the local fanbase, let alone the media? Of course they do. It’s a safe bet that this pressure directly contributed to the 1-0 outcome of Game 5.

Now, while I am here to tell you that the ’08 title was a fluke, I am also here to tell you that you should enjoy it for what it manifestly is:  a world title. Ask fans of the Cubs or Indians if they would take what we have. You already know the answer to that.

Look, winning a World Series is hard. As we’ve seen in the last decade, teams that are built to win a World Series very rarely do. The ’08 Phils were not built to win a title. They were built to not get swept in the NLDS like they did in ’07.

Let’s look at all the world champions since 2002 and you will see that the best, most talented team rarely wins the last game in October:

2002 – Anaheim Angels – The Angels were a surprise and a team built similarly to the Phillies (circa. 2007-2008): great, explosive offense and a largely no-name pitching staff. Name me the top three starters in the Angels’ 2002 rotation. You might remember John Lackey, but Ramon Ortiz and Jarrod Washburn didn’t exactly strike fear in opposing lineups. The Angels were the AL’s wild card in ’02, finishing second in the AL West behind the same Oakland A’s team featured in Moneyball. The Angels did defeat the heavily favored Yankees (who added former AL MVP Jason Giambi in the offseason) in the ALDS, but were spared from facing the team tied for the best record in the AL (the A’s).

The AL side of the 2002 postseason definitely didn’t go as planned, with the Angels and Twins advancing to the ALCS. Again, I think expectations (and lack thereof) came into play. It can be argued that the Yanks and A’s felt the pressure of their regular season success in the first round. It can also be argued that the Angels had an easier time sneaking up on teams in the postseason because, again, they were the cinderellas of the tournament.

2003 – Florida Marlins – Another wild card. They differed from the Angels in that they got hot the last two months of the season and carried that into the postseason, while the Angels were strong for most of the year. The Marlins certainly were not built to win a title, winning it with mostly no-name, homegrown or young talent such as Josh Beckett, Derrek Lee, Juan Pierre, Luis Castillo and Mike Lowell. The Fish did beat the Yanks in the World Series, however. While you have to tip your cap to them for that, this also points to my theory of lower expectations having internal and external benefits.

2004 – Boston Red Sox – Although the Idiots were a wild card, they were supposed to contend for a title, even while being considered second banana to the Yanks, who had added A-Rod in the preceding offseason. In fact, the Red Sox season appeared to be over, down 3-0 in the ALCS, but, well, you remember what happened next. While the Sox were not as much of a surprise as the Angels or Marlins, they certainly weren’t the prohibitive favorites to win it all, either.  Especially if you take into account their history prior to this season.

2005 – Chicago White Sox – The Pale Hose were winners of the AL Central, posting the best record in the American League. However, the Sox were largely picked to finish fourth in their division prior to the season and actually traded some of their surplus power (Carlos Lee) in order to go with more of a small ball approach (Scott Podsednik). And, even though the Sox pitching staff was considered to be talented, it was not chock full of future hall of famers. Mark Buerhle, Freddy Garcia and Jon Garland were their top three starters. And, by the way, Chicago swept the Red Sox, defending world champs (and de facto team to beat), in the ALDS.

2006 – St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals went 83-79 in the regular season yet won the NL Central. ‘Nuff said. Seriously, their closer was a rookie named Adam Wainwright and their postseason rotation consisted of Chris Carpenter, Jeff Weaver, Anthony Reyes and Jeff Suppan. With the exception of Carpenter:  yawn.

2007 – Boston Red Sox – Once again, these Sox were considered a title contender before the year and they would have won any other division in 2007. These Sox were that good, and were an exception to the theory that the best team rarely wins the World Series.

2008 – Philadelphia Phillies – Hamels/Myers/Moyer/Blanton. The fact that the Phillies won a title with that rotation has to boggle the mind. While it’s easy to say that the Phils got lucky, just about every team listed here had to get past a team that was favored above them. The Phillies’ NLCS victory over the Dodgers was that win.

2009 – New York Yankees – This is the most obvious case (and one could argue, the only case) of the prohibitive favorite from wire-to-wire winning the World Series. Although the Phils were defending their title, the Yankees added Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett and C.C. Sabathia in the offseason. The Yankees then proceeded to win 100 games in the regular season and unseated the Phils for their 27th world title.

2010 – San Francisco Giants – The Giants’ signature victory of the postseason was in the NLCS against the Phillies. Otherwise, they faced teams not ready for the bright lights and expectations of the postseason (Braves and Rangers). The Giants’ rotation was world class, but when your lineup relies on Pat Burrell, Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey and Cody Ross, you’re a surprising champion.

2011 – ? – Obviously, we don’t know who will win the World Series yet, but the three teams considered to be the favorites (Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees) are all out and none of them made it to the LCS. You can even add the Atlanta Braves, who were the NL’s second-best team for most of the season, to that list.

The point of all of this is to say that, yes, the Phillies got lucky in 2008. But as the list above illustrates, it is most definitely better to be lucky than to be good.

If you were to say that the Phillies are the class of the National League right now, no one could successfully argue against that. Unfortunately, that status does not translate to a world title.

The point I am making has been made many times by many baseball experts around the country. The Phillies and their fans, however, have now seen this trend hit a little too close to home in the last two years.

Thus, I reiterate, the Phillies’ 2008 world title was indeed a fluke. However, since that has been the trend in baseball over the last decade, the Phils’ apparent luck in ’08 does not diminish what they accomplished that year.

On the contrary, the trend of the last decade has shown us that these current Phillies are right where they ought to be. And that would make a second world title in the Charlie Manuel Era that much sweeter.

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Tip of the (Salary) Cap: The Philadelphia Phillies are Not the New York Yankees

The Philadelphia Phillies are not the New York Yankees.

If you hail from the Bronx, or are an ardent supporter of the pinstripers, feel free to snicker, or insert your “uh, duh” comments if you want to, but this article is not as much about you or your team as much as it is about the Phillies.

While watching Roy Halladay’s magical postseason no-hitter on Wednesday night, I followed a certain live chat. As you can imagine, the majority of the comments raved about Halladay’s magician-like mastery of the Cincinnati Reds‘ lineup.

Of course, there were some haters. It came to my surprise, even though it shouldn’t have in retrospect, that a large number of fans of small-market teams (such as the Reds, the Royals, or the Rays) have come to resent the Phillies for their seemingly free-spending ways. After all, in the past two seasons, the Phillies have traded for two former Cy Young Award winners still in their prime before trading for another pitcher who will receive some also-ran votes for the distinguished award this season.

One comment in particular was telling.

“All this shows is that if you have money, you win.”

This was the most prominent of a number of comments from fans who were crying for the implementation of a salary cap in Major League Baseball. While I see the validity of both a capped and uncapped salary structure, the current system is what it is so teams have to deal with the current structure that is in place.

Before I debunk the notion that the Phillies have somehow “bought” their run of four consecutive division titles, let’s get the obvious out of the way:  The statement that money automatically buys a team wins is so inaccurate, it’s laughable. 

The king of the payroll race in baseball is, of course, the Yankees with an opening day payroll of over $206 million. Look closely at this list and you will see that the next two teams, the Red Sox ($163 M) and the Cubs ($147 M) didn’t even finish in the top two in their respective divisions. The only team worse than the Cubs in the NL Central, in fact, was the Pirates, who started the year with the league’s lowest payroll at roughly $35 million.

The Phillies started the year with the league’s fourth highest payroll at $140 million (over $60 million less than the Yankees, mind you) but then the Mets, Tigers, White Sox, Angels, Mariners, and Giants rounded out the top 10.

So, wait. I thought that spending loads of money guaranteed wins.

Astonishingly, only three of the league’s top 10 most spendthrift-like franchises made the postseason. That’s less than half of the 2010 postseason’s eight-team field! The postseason team with the lowest opening day payroll, by the way, is the Texas Rangers, who spent over $55 million fielding their initial roster.

“All this shows is that if you have money, you win.”

Apparently not. All this shows is that if you have money, you had better spend it wisely.

Now, back to my muse.

The Phillies did not buy their way to National League supremacy. If you don’t want to hang on for the long explanation, here’s the short version.

Remember when the Diamondbacks (2001) and the Marlins (twice! 1997 and 2003) dismantled their teams after winning the World Series, never to be heard from again? Those teams, except for perhaps the ’03 Fish) “bought” their rings.

They signed key free agents and made trades for All-Star vets in their prime for the sole purpose of winning a championship. That doesn’t bother me. Why? Because if that is how the owner of a baseball team wants to spend his or her money, then so be it. It’s his or her funeral after the season.

That is not what the Phillies have done.

There will be a day, and according to Phillies’ GM Ruben Amaro, that day nearly came this season, where the Phillies of this era will be shipped off, dispatched to teams and locales near and far in an effort to get younger. When that day comes, it won’t be because the Phillies need to be realistic about their payroll.

While money will have something to do with it, this team will be dismantled because the skills of its nucleus will have diminished to the point where it can no longer contend for a championship. That’s certainly not what happened to those Diamondback and Marlin teams.

Curt Schilling, Edgar Renteria, Gary Sheffield, Al Leiter, Robb Nen. These are all names of a few members of those teams that were dispatched while either in their prime or with some serviceable gas left in the tank.

Now for the long explanation. Sorry, the abridged version went longer than I anticipated.

Once upon a time, in a cookie-cutter, concrete wasteland of a ballpark, the Philadelphia Phillies were one of a few doormats scattered across the National League. Anchored by what many fans believed to be a future franchise cornerstone in Scott Rolen, the Phillies repeatedly ended their seasons at or near the bottom of the National League East standings.

Phillies’ management told fans, “Have faith. We’re building a contender.”

Phillies fans weren’t drinking the Kool-Aid, however. Why should they have? As talented as guys like Rolen, Mike Lieberthal, Bobby Abreu, and Doug Glanville were, they weren’t championship-caliber players.

And, don’t get me started about the Phils’ pitching staff. When Robert Person, Randy Wolf, Wayne Gomes, Matt Beech, and Carlton Loewer are the headliners of your pitching staff, you’re not going to win many ballgames.

And so, the Phillies didn’t. And the fans responded in kind by not showing up. Attendance figures for the Phils were hovering around Rays-like numbers.

So, the Phillies started placing more emphasis on the draft. Jimmy Rollins, the current Phillies’ longest-tenured player, made his debut during a cup of tea in 2000. In the late ’90s and early ’00s, the Phils’ also drafted Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Pat Burrell, and Ryan Madson. They snatched Carlos Ruiz out of Panama.

As those guys started advancing towards The Show, the Phillies believed that they were that much closer to being a contender. They made some low-profile moves, acquiring the likes of Jon Lieber, Placido Polanco, David Bell, and Antonio Alfonseca.

They made some high-profile moves, signing Jim Thome and trading for Kevin Millwood and Billy Wagner in the hopes that they might just take them to the postseason.

They didn’t. Barely.

Despite the near misses, more and more fans were showing up to Veterans Stadium and Citizens Bank Park. Why? Because the Phillies started winning.

When it became apparent to Phillies’ GM Pat Gillick that a nucleus that included Abreu and Thome and Cory Lidle was not going to reach the postseason, he moved those players, ostensibly handing the team over to Howard, Rollins, Utley, and Hamels.

Although the team was basically dismantled by the trade deadline of 2006, the Phillies were finally in a position to move to the top of the standings. Gillick got Jamie Moyer through a waiver trade.

Although the Phillies fell just short of the postseason, yet again, the fans showed up.

With Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Hamels in the fold, Gillick started piecing together a contender. He hardly made a high-profile move.

Does anyone remember where they were when the Phils selected Shane Victorino in the Rule 5 draft? Does anyone remember the day when the Phillies signed Jayson Werth, a reserve outfielder who was trying to overcome countless injuries to salvage a once-budding career?

I don’t. My guess is, neither do you.

In 2007, the Phillies hung around until September, when they finally passed the Mets to win the division on the very last day of the season.

More fans showed up.

The Phillies didn’t make any high-profile Roy Oswalt-esque trades then, either. Their biggest midseason addition that year? Kyle Lohse.

Although the Phillies got swept in the opening round of the 2007 postseason, the seal was broken. This team could contend.

In 2008, the Phillies’ World Series championship year, their biggest addition was Joe Blanton.

As you’d imagine, fans came out in droves in 2008.

It was not until 2009 that the Phillies acquired the likes of a guy like Cliff Lee. Lee, as I’m sure you remember, was then traded after the season to allow the Phillies to bring in Roy Halladay.

Sure, Halladay was never in the Phillies’ minor league system. And sure, he is one of the best, if not the best at his position. But remember, he wanted to be a Phillie, badly. So much so that he signed a three-year extension worth far less than he would have commanded (and deserved) on the open market a year later.

Also, surely the Phillies had their eyes on the payroll and their minor league system. Otherwise, they never would have traded Lee and would have enjoyed a rotation that included Halladay, Lee, and Hamels for the entire season. Unfortunately, the farm system needed to be replenished and the Phils’ payroll, at the time, could not bear the brunt of Halladay’s and Lee’s contracts.

In 2010, the Phillies, as you know, contended again.

The fans showed up. They showed up to the tune of three million-plus at the gate while selling out all 81 of the team’s home contests.

The Phillies acquired Oswalt. Now, they stand on the cusp of another World Series appearance.

What’s the moral of this story? One, as mentioned a long time ago, several paragraphs ahead of this one, money does not guarantee you wins.

Two, the Phillies didn’t “buy” their way to the top. They built through the draft and, even though the team teased the city of Philadelphia with several narrow misses at a playoff berth, the team was still winning. It was winning enough games and playing an exciting enough brand of baseball that the fans filled the blue seats of Citizens Bank Park in droves.

Who do you think is responsible for Halladay’s paychecks these days? Sure, Phillies president Dave Montgomery probably signs the checks, but the money comes from the fans who fill the stadium.

What’s funny and ironic is that fans of small market teams complain about the spending habits of the “big market” teams. What’s funny is that the Phillies sold out the majority of those September games down the stretch in ’03, ’05, and ’06, even though their team hadn’t won a championship in over 20 years. What’s funny is that given a near-identical situation in 2010, the Tampa Bay Rays had to give away tickets to fans down the stretch.

If Rays fans wanted their team to keep guys like Carl Crawford, they needed to show up to the games. Unlike those Phillies teams in the late ’90s and early ’00s, the Rays were winning in 2010. They were leading the American League East of all divisions! Yet their attendance figures were comparable to those of the struggling Phillies during the late ’90s.

It appears to me that a salary cap wouldn’t fix anything. If there was a salary cap, sure the Phillies might not be able to spend more money than the Rays but then you’d have teams like the Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox that would have tons more revenue (because their fans actually show up) and nothing to spend it on. That, my friends, would be a waste. That, my friends, would cause those rabid fans to wonder where their hard-earned cash was going.

The lesson here is this:  If you want your “small-market” team to reach elite status, they need to draft well. If they draft well and start competing (but not contending) you need to show up. If they contend, you still need to show up. The owners (and the roughly $30 million each team gets through revenue sharing) will take care of the rest.

Basically, don’t blame the Phillies because their fans showed up before and during their success of the past two years. They didn’t buy the nucleus of players that allowed them to reach this point. And it was only through fan support that they were able to trade for guys like Lee, Halladay, and Oswalt.

And don’t tell me about the economy, either. The economy has hit St. Petersburg, Miami, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh just as badly as it has hit Philadelphia, Chicago, Boston, or New York. I do believe that certain markets (such as St. Petersburg) are ill-equipped to handle a Major League Baseball franchise. In that case, you have to wonder how practical it is for such a market to even have a team.

In summary, the next time you feel like whining about your team’s inability to keep up with the Phillies, Yanks, and Red Sox, get a group of friends together and buy tickets to that day’s game. Heck, go out and buy season tickets if you feel so inclined. Whatever you do, be sure to ask yourself whether or not your team drafts well and whether or not you or your fan base has done enough to help your team become a contender.

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