Is Ruben Amaro Jr. Optimistic or Delusional to Think 2013 Phillies Will Compete?

Have the Philadelphia Phillies made enough improvements to their roster to compete with the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves in the NL East? 

General manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. thinks so, according to comments he made to MLB.com’s Phillies beat reporter Todd Zolecki. 

“I think we have a good enough team to contend for the division, yes,” Amaro told Zolecki. “Absolutely. It’s up to the players to prove me right, I guess.”

To be fair to Amaro, what else is he supposed to say?

Look, everyone else sees what the Nats and Braves have done. We’re thinking of forfeiting the season. Atlanta traded for Justin Upton, and we signed Delmon Young. When that deal hit the news, I hid under my desk and cried for six hours. Contend? Yeah, right! 

With those remarks, however, Amaro comes off a bit like Kevin Bacon in Animal House, trying to keep a frenzied crowd under control. “Remain calm!” he yells. “All is well!” 

But will Amaro eventually be stampeded by Phillies fans who expect much more from a team that won five straight division titles from 2007 to 2011 and contended for most of the past 12 seasons?

The Nationals compiled the best record in MLB last year at 98-64, finishing 17 games ahead of the Phillies in the NL East. During the offseason, Nats GM Mike Rizzo added Dan Haren to the team’s starting rotation, traded for center fielder Denard Span and signed free-agent closer Rafael Soriano. 

As mentioned above, the Braves acquired Justin Upton, a player one season removed from an MVP-caliber season of 31 home runs, 88 RBI, 39 doubles and 21 stolen bases. Prior to that, Atlanta signed B.J. Upton to be their center fielder and added Jordan Walden to an already outstanding bullpen. 

Meanwhile, the Phillies also got a center fielder, trading for Ben Revere. That fulfilled Amaro‘s primary offseason objective. Michael Young was acquired to fill the hole at third base. Philadelphia also signed Delmon Young to provide a right-handed power bat in the outfield. 

On the pitching side, Amaro signed one of MLB’s best setup relievers in Mike Adams. John Lannan was added to the back end of the starting rotation. Reliever Chad Durbin and Yuniesky Betancourt were also signed for roster depth. 

Yet, those additions aren’t joining a squad full of replacement-level players.

The Phillies still have the best trio of starting pitchers atop their rotation with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels.

Philadelphia should also have Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back at full health after both players missed significant time with injuries last season. And after he returns from a 25-game suspension, Carlos Ruiz gives the Phillies one of the best catchers in MLB. 

However, are the Phillies better than the team that finished 81-81 last season?

Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino are gone. Vance Worley is no longer in the starting rotation. Though Ruiz’s suspension accounts for only 15 percent of the season, that could limit him to approximately 100 games in 2013. 

It should be noted that after looking like a potential last-place team early in the season, the Phillies played far better in the second half. The team played itself into the NL wild-card playoff race by going 44-31.

But nearly all of the additions Amaro made to the Phillies roster have rather significant question marks going into the upcoming season. 

Revere will be a stolen-base threat at the top of the batting order. But his OPS was only .675 last season. His .333 on-base percentage would have ranked fifth among the Phillies’ regular starters. He also mostly batted in the No. 2 spot for the Minnesota Twins last year. 

Michael Young is coming off the worst season of his career at age 36. He batted .277 with a .682 OPS, nine home runs and 67 RBI.

Young was also mostly a designated hitter last year, playing just 25 games at third base. When he was in the field, he allowed five runs more than the average third baseman, according to FanGraphs‘ ultimate zone rating (UZR).

Delmon Young hit .267 with a .707 OPS, 18 home runs and 74 RBI last season. He was more impressive during the playoffs, batting .313 with a .907 OPS, three homers and nine RBI. The Phillies wanted a right-handed bat and Young hits left-handed pitching well, compiling a .308 average, .833 OPS, seven homers and 26 RBI versus southpaws last year.

The big concern with Young, however, is that the Phillies apparently intend to make him their starting right fielder. He hasn’t played that position since 2007 with the Tampa Bay Rays. But since then, he’s been a left fielder and designated hitter. 

FanGraphs‘ UZR measured Young as a good defensive right fielder, saving eight runs more than an average player during the two seasons he played the position. But we’re only talking about 133 games to judge. Young will also be recovering from microfracture surgery on his ankle, which could prevent him from opening the season on the Phillies’ active roster. 

Comparing the Phillies to the Nationals and Braves—especially taking each team’s offseason moves into consideration—doesn’t look very favorable. For Amaro to say he expects his team to compete with two clubs that could be the best in the NL seems optimistic at best. 

However, Philadelphia could influence who does eventually win the NL East or a wild-card playoff spot. The Phillies won’t be a pushover for the Nats or Braves in the division.

But for Amaro to think his team can ultimately be anything more than a spoiler by the end of the upcoming season might be borderline delusional. This just doesn’t look like their year. 

 

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How Signing Delmon Young Impacts the Philadelphia Phillies’ Roster

Getting a right-handed bat for the outfield was one of the offseason priorities for the Philadelphia Phillies.

General manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. finally got his man by signing Delmon Young to a one-year, $750,000 contract on Tuesday (Jan. 22), as announced by the team and reported by the Philadelphia Inquirer‘s Matt Gelb.

Last year for the Detroit Tigers, Young hit .267 with a .707 OPS, 18 home runs and 74 RBI in 608 plate appearances. He was especially impressive in the postseason, however. As the Tigers made a run to the World Series, Young batted .313 with a .907 OPS, three homers and nine RBI. 

The initial guess is that Young will be a platoon outfielder with the Phillies. That role should suit him well since he hit .308 with an .833 OPS, seven homers and 26 RBI versus left-handed pitching last season. For his career, Young has a .307 average and .824 OPS against lefties. 

However, with the right-handed Darin Ruf originally slated to play left field, platooning Young there makes no sense. As MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweeted, that could mean Ruf will begin the season in Triple-A Lehigh Valley. 

Ruf actually jumped from Double-A Reading to the majors last season as a September call-up for the Phillies. He finished his minor league season with a .317 average, a 1.028 OPS, 38 home runs and 104 RBI.

In 12 games with Philadelphia, Ruf batted .333 with a 1.079 OPS, three home runs and 10 RBI. CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury reported in late December that the Phillies wanted to give him a shot in left field and preferred to get a right fielder through free agency or trade.

Did the team change its mind, preferring to get Ruf more time in left field at Triple-A? He’s played most of his career in the minors at first base. 

But if the Phillies want to give Ruf a shot in left field, that means signing Young puts Domonic Brown’s spot on the active major league roster in jeopardy. 

Brown looked like the favorite to be Philadelphia’s starting right fielder, if for no other reason than the team didn’t have another true right fielder on the roster. He has played most of his career at that position.

FanGraphs‘ Ultimate Zone Rating measures Brown as a below-average defender. Over his career, he’s allowed 14 more runs than the average right fielder. But that might still be preferable to going with someone who hasn’t played much right field at all. 

The Phillies likely question whether Brown will hit well enough to justify a starting position. Last year, he batted .235 with a .712 OPS, five home runs and 26 RBI in 212 plate appearances with Philadelphia. Against lefties, he hit .196 with a .621 OPS, which pretty much demands a right-handed hitting-platoon partner.

However, according to the Philadelphia Daily News‘ Ryan Lawrence, Amaro and the Phillies may have already decided where Young will play before the team even reports to spring training in Clearwater, Fla. 

 

Amaro: Young will play RF.

— Ryan Lawrence (@ryanlawrence21) January 22, 2013

 

Well, then.

Young hasn’t played right field since 2007, since he was with the Tampa Bay Rays. He did play 133 games at the position that season, but only played left field or designated hitter while with the Minnesota Twins and Tigers. 

FanGraphs‘ UZR says Young was actually a good defensive right fielder, saving eight runs more than the average defender at that position in the two seasons he played there. But 133 games isn’t really a representative sample size of a player’s ability in the field. 

Additionally, Young will also be working his way back from microfracture surgery performed on his ankle in mid-November. (Nov. 10, to be exact.)

According to a tweet by Gelb, the projected recovery for Young could be up to 16 weeks. That will likely keep him out for all of spring training and could put him on the disabled list when the Phillies open the season. That’s not ideal for a guy who’s moving to a new position. 

Under those circumstances, Brown should presumably still have a chance to win a job in spring training, whether it’s in right field or left. At the very least, he could earn a platoon. As a left-handed hitter, that would give him the majority of plate appearances at his position. 

Though Amaro surely didn’t sign Young to sit on the bench, his salary won’t be so high that he has to be in the lineup. As mentioned, he only signed for $750,000—nearly one-tenth of the $6.75 million he earned last year with Detroit. 

According to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, roster and performance bonuses in the contract could raise its value up to $3.25 million.

But if Ruf and Brown are playing well enough to warrant starting spots in the outfield, Young isn’t going to see enough playing time to trigger the incentive clauses in his deal. The financial risk is low for the Phillies. 

Young signing for such a low salary might indicate how poorly he was regarded as a hitter—as well as being a poor defensive player who didn’t appear to play in ideal physical condition. 

But signing in late January for under $1 million could also show that Young became a relatively toxic player around MLB after his arrest for hate-crime harassment in New York last April. The incident resulted in a seven-game suspension by MLB.

Young also had to eventually perform community service. As Young shared with the Philadelphia media, according to Lawrence, that included picking up dog poop in New York dog parks (h/t Sulia.com). 

Amaro has been criticized for being too patient—or put more harshly, dragging his feet—this offseason, watching B.J. Upton sign with the Atlanta Braves and Nick Swisher go to the Cleveland Indians. Some believed the Phillies would make a run at Josh Hamilton or trade for Justin Upton as well. 

But staying under 2013’s $178 million luxury tax threshold was a concern for Amaro dating back to last season. Taking that into consideration, waiting for prices to come down and signing a risky player like Young makes sense.

The question now is whether Young will make Amaro look smart or foolish. 

 

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Assessing Phillies’ Best, Worst-Case Win Totals If They Are Done Adding Players

Ruben Amaro, Jr. just played the sad trombone for Philadelphia Phillies fans. 

The offseason began with the hope that the Phillies would add an impact bat to their outfield and perhaps add a major contributor at third base as well. But reality has fallen a bit short of those expectations thus far. 

Philadelphia did get the center fielder it needed, acquiring Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins. But the price to get Revere was rather high, costing the Phillies starting pitchers Vance Worley and Trevor May. 

Though the Phillies could use another outfielder—preferably a full-time right fielder—Amaro is now saying that his offseason shopping is finished, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Gelb.

“We’re likely going with what we got,” said Amaro. 

That means the Phillies will report to Clearwater for spring training in approximately five weeks with a projected outfield trio of Darin Ruf in left, Revere in center and Domonic Brown in left. John Mayberry, Jr. and Laynce Nix will also be in the mix, likely as platoon partners for Ruf and Brown. 

However, with Michael Bourn remaining as the only free-agent outfielder that can make a difference for a lineup, Amaro doesn’t have many other options to bring in.

Besides, as Gelb explains, the Phillies have around $7 million to spend, as Amaro wants to stay under the $178 million luxury tax threshold for this year. That won’t be enough to sign Bourn, unless he agrees to take a deep discount on a one-year contract. 

The Phillies could explore the trade market, with players such as the Arizona Diamondbacks‘ Justin Upton and Jason Kubel, the Chicago Cubs‘ Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells of the Los Angeles Angels reportedly available. But after trading Worley and May, Amaro doesn’t have as many pieces to deal as he did previously. 

With a largely unproven outfield, new third baseman Michael Young coming off the worst season of his career and concerns over the condition of Roy Halladay’s shoulder, what sort of performance can the Phillies expect for 2013?

Is this a team that can compete with the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves in the NL East, as presently constructed? Is enough there to at least hang in the race and motivate Amaro to make some additions at midseason? 

 

Best-Case Scenario

According to CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury, the Phillies want to give Ruf every chance to win the left field job. Last year, Ruf hit .317 with a 1.028 OPS, 38 home runs and 104 RBI for Double-A Reading.

Ideally, he’ll bring his production from the minors last season and give Philadelphia the right-handed power hitter that can bat between Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the middle of the lineup. 

At third base, Young has to improve over his .277 average and .682 OPS last season with the Texas Rangers. If the Phillies had added an impact bat in the outfield, perhaps they would settle for that kind of production from Young. 

However, the Phillies need Young to approach his career numbers of a .300 average and .800 OPS, while perhaps adding 10 home runs and 90 RBI. That would be the right-handed bat Amaro hoped to add during the offseason.

On the pitching side, Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels have to be the best starting trio in MLB. That’s certainly the expectation and there’s no reason to think those three pitchers can’t meet that standard. 

Lee and Hamels are both coming off excellent seasons. But Halladay has to be healthy. The Phillies need 200 innings from him, while approaching a sub-2.00 ERA and 20 wins. 

Other than Jonathan Papelbon, the Phillies bullpen was a disaster last season. Adding Mike Adams—one of baseball’s best setup relievers over the past five years—should improve the team’s late-inning relief significantly. 

Antonio Bastardo and Jeremy Horst should provide some stability in middle relief, allowing the game to progress nicely from the starting pitching to the bullpen for the Phillies. At the very least, fewer leads should be blown and Papelbon could exceed 40 saves.

If these scenarios play out in the Phillies’ favor, they should approach 90 wins. But even if Philadelphia hits that total, it probably won’t be enough to overtake the Nationals and Braves in the NL East. 

 

Worst-Case Scenario

It’s not difficult to imagine this thing going south for the Phillies in 2013. The team needs many things to go right for a successful season to come together. 

For instance, Revere profiles as a leadoff hitter with speed. His .333 on-base percentage last year says he should do fine in that role, but he mostly batted second for the Twins. How will he fare in being the batter who has to set the table for the rest of the order? 

What if Ruf can’t make the jump from Double-A to the majors this year? In 12 games with the Phillies, he hit .333 with a 1.079 OPS, three homers and 10 RBI. That seems to indicate he can handle the transition, but 12 games and 37 plate appearances isn’t much to go on. 

The bigger concern in the Phillies outfield is Brown. At 25 years old, he still has time to develop into a significant contributor. But Brown hasn’t made a strong impression over the past three seasons, batting .236 overall with a .703 OPS. 

Against left-handed pitching, Brown has a .208 average and .586 OPS. That will probably mean Mayberry plays when a lefty is on the mound.

Can the two of them together combine to provide serviceable major league production? If not, and Ruf proves not ready for prime time, the Phillies offense could conceivably be even worse than it was last year. 

If Halladay struggles with diminished velocity and finds himself back on the disabled list because of his shoulder, that increases the burden on Lee and Hamels to anchor the starting rotation. Those two will probably be up to the task, but losing Halladay would obviously affect the depth of the Phillies’ starting staff.

John Lannan was signed to be the team’s fifth starter and should give Philadelphia suitable production in that spot. But if Lannan has to move up in the rotation, his 4.00 ERA and inability to strike out batters will take the mound more often. 

Finally, Adams will be coming back from offseason thoracic outlet surgery. Some pitchers, such as the St. Louis Cardinals‘ Chris Carpenter, have been able to recover from that procedure nicely. Others, like Jeremy Bonderman, haven’t been the same since. 

The Phillies are obviously confident in Adams’ chances, signing him to a two-year, $12 million contract. But if he’s slow to rebuild strength in his shoulder, the bridge between the starting pitchers and Papelbon could continue to be shaky. 

If these situations fall apart for the Phillies, they could easily win fewer than the 81 victories achieved last season. Perhaps the team would approach 75 wins. Unlike last year, Amaro may not have assets to deal away at the trade deadline either. 

It could get ugly at Citizens Bank Park under those circumstances. 

 

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Who Will Emerge as the Philadelphia Phillies’ Key Outfielders in 2013?

Upgrading the outfield has been the main objective for Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. this offseason. However, that project hasn’t been entirely completed yet.

Amaro placed a priority on getting a center fielder, and he accomplished that goal by acquiring Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for pitchers Vance Worley and Trevor May.

But the Phillies still have question marks in their corner outfield spots.

Will 2013 be the year that Domonic Brown finally emerges as a productive major league outfielder? He hit .235 with a .712 OPS in 56 games with Philadelphia last season, and at 25 years old, this could be the proverbial make-or-break season for him.

According to CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury, the Phillies want to give Darin Ruf a shot at winning the job in left field.

Ruf had a tremendous 2012 season with Double-A Reading, hitting .317 with a 1.028 OPS, 38 home runs and 104 RBI. In 37 plate appearances in the majors, he batted .333 with a 1.079 OPS, three homers and 10 RBI.

Yet is it too much to expect a player to make the jump from Double-A to the majors in one season? Despite Ruf‘s success in Reading, would he ultimately benefit from more plate appearances in Triple-A Lehigh Valley to begin the year? 

Amaro likely can’t afford to bring in new players at all three outfield positions, so someone from within the organization will have to provide some production—at least early in the season. Based on Salisbury’s report, it appears that Ruf will be that player. 

Obviously, that still leaves right field to be filled.  

Even if Brown gets an opportunity there, will the Phillies add a right-handed hitter to platoon with him? For that matter, could Brown platoon with Ruf in left field?

As MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes in a mailbag column, the best candidate if Amaro were decide to go the free agent route would be Scott Hairston

Hairston hit 20 home runs with 87 RBI in 398 plate appearances for the New York Mets last season. More importantly for the Phillies’ purposes, he batted .286 with an .867 OPS against left-handed pitching. 

However, Hairston is surely seeking a significant raise over the $1.1 million that he made last season after his success with the Mets. That might put him out of the Phillies’ range.

The remaining right-handed bats on the free agent market are the likes of Juan Rivera, Ryan Raburn and Delmon Young. In that case, Amaro is better off just pairing John Mayberry, Jr. with Brown in right field.

Regardless, it seems to be apparent that the Phillies will have to bring in outside help for that position. Unfortunately, the Josh Hamiltons and Nick Swishers of the world have signed elsewhere. So in order to get the “difference-maker” that Amaro seeks, he’ll need to make a trade. 

The first name that will surely be mentioned is Justin Upton, whom the Arizona Diamondbacks are reportedly putting back on the trade block, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi. 

Upton would be an impact player in right field for the Phillies, capable of 30 home runs, 85 RBI and 20 stolen bases. In other words, he could provide Philadelphia with MVP-caliber production—exactly what Amaro is looking for from his outfield. 

But what would the Phillies have to trade to get Upton from the D-Backs?

Could Amaro come up with a package of starting pitching and perhaps even include one of the organization’s young catchers, such as Sebastian Valle, that would interest Arizona GM Kevin Towers? Third-base prospect Cody Asche might be a player Towers would like as well. 

Another potential trade target could be Andre Ethier, though he wouldn’t be the right-handed bat that the Phillies likely prefer. Ethier would also be expensive, as he is beginning a five-year, $85 million contract this season and Amaro has concerns about staying under the $178 million luxury tax threshold for this year. 

However, the Los Angeles Dodgers are presumably more interested in dumping Ethier‘s contract—perhaps to clear room for signing Michael Bourn—than receiving top prospects in return. That might help Amaro in terms of putting together a potential trade package. 

The same circumstances would likely apply to the Chicago Cubs‘ Alfonso Soriano or Vernon Wells of the Los Angeles Angels.

The Cubs would probably want more for Soriano, since he hit 32 homers with 108 RBI last season. If they have to eat a big chunk of the $36 million remaining on Soriano’s contract, the Cubs will surely ask for better prospects in return. 

For the Angels, Wells would be a straight salary dump. He’s still owed $42 million, but he isn’t coming off a productive season like Soriano is. However, the Phillies would likely have to either trade top prospects to get the Angels to cover most of that money or they would have to add that ridiculous salary to their payroll. 

The guess here is that Amaro will make a play for Upton if he feels the Phillies still need to add an impact outfielder.

Upton is the best player available with the most upside. He is also the most affordable in terms of salary, slotted to make $38.5 million over the next three years. Though Amaro would have to pay a heavy price in a trade for him, the Phillies would get far more from Upton than the other veteran outfielders that are available. 

Philadelphia could go into the upcoming season with an outfield of Ruf, Revere and Brown, but that would be a tough sell to fans, and it’s difficult to believe that trio would help the Phillies compete in the NL East with the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves. 

 

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Contingency Plans for the Phillies If Roy Halladay Never Returns to Dominance

Regardless of the additions general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. made to the Philadelphia Phillies roster during the offseason, starting pitching was going to be the strength of the team in 2013.

With Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels topping the rotation, Philadelphia has a chance of competing for an NL East title and wild-card playoff spot. But Amaro had to make the necessary improvements on offense to make sure his team’s strong pitching wouldn’t be wasted.

However, that’s presuming that Halladay, Lee and Hamels are all healthy. In 2012, rumors and concerns over injuries followed Halladay throughout spring training as he showed diminished velocity. In June, Halladay went on the disabled list with a strained shoulder and eventually missed nearly eight weeks of the season. 

Though Halladay made 14 starts after returning from the DL, there is understandably some concern as to whether or not he can make it through a full season healthy again. He’s 35 years old with nearly 2,700 innings on his odometer. 

In his latest mailbag column for MLB.com, Phillies beat writer Todd Zolecki was asked about Halladay’s health and what sort of offseason conditioning he was working through to prevent a repeat of 2012. 

According to Amaro, Halladay’s offseason is going according to plan and he’ll begin throwing off a mound in the very near future. However, there was one part of Amaro‘s remarks that might seem a bit cryptic to Phillies fans. 

“He’s doing well,” said Amaro, “but we don’t know what kind of Doc we’re going to get until Doc’s down firing in Spring Training. But he’s feeling pretty good so far.”

To be fair, that’s probably the most honest answer Amaro could give.

If he said Halladay looks great and was popping catchers’ mitts in Clearwater, Fla., while the right-hander was really trying to build strength in his shoulder and didn’t have his full velocity yet, fans, reporters and analysts would hit the panic button and Amaro would look foolish.

Halladay would also surely be upset that reports of his progress were misleading and Amaro didn’t manage expectations properly. 

Instead, Amaro said everything was proceeding as planned. But until Halladay starts throwing to catchers off a mound and faces live competition, it’s impossible to say that his shoulder looks stronger than it was last year and that he should be fine for next season.

However, the words “we don’t know what kind of Doc we’re going to get” does leave an opening for some doubt to creep in.

What if Halladay won’t be the pitcher we’re accustomed to seeing, the ace who won 40 games in his first two seasons with the Phillies? Is he capable of pitching more than 240 innings and averaging 220 strikeouts again? 

According to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, Philadelphia was ready to talk about a contract extension before Halladay was injured. Those plans have probably been ditched. 

Obviously, the Phillies are hoping Halladay will be able to earn his $20 million salary for 2013 and pitch well enough for the team to pick up his option for 2014 (also worth $20 million). If age and workload have finally caught up with him, however, devising a contingency plan might be in order for Amaro and manager Charlie Manuel. 

Fortunately, the Phillies have two other ace-level starters ready to take over the No. 1 spot in the rotation if Halladay suffers any setbacks. 

Though Lee compiled a 6-9 record last season, he finished among the National League’s top 10 starters with a 3.16 ERA. His 207 strikeouts and 1.11 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) both ranked in the league’s top five. 

Hamels’ 17 wins were the fifth-highest total in the NL. His 216 strikeouts ranked third among the league’s starting pitchers, while his 1.12 WHIP was right behind Lee. Opposing batters hit .237 against Hamels, one of the 10 best marks in the NL. 

Both pitchers exceeded 200 innings for the season, the sort of workload expected from a top-of-the-rotation starter. 

Losing Halladay would affect the depth of the starting rotation, of course. With Vance Worley and Trevor May going to the Minnesota Twins in a trade for outfielder Ben Revere, there was already less to work with. 

Rather than three elite pitchers, the Phillies would have two. Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan would fill the next two spots, leaving the fifth starter a question mark. Tyler Cloyd, who made six starts last season, would probably be the favorite for that role.

Jesse Biddle is the Phillies’ top prospect, according to Baseball America. But he pitched in Single-A last season and is realistically at least another year from appearing in the major leagues. 

Jonathan Pettibone could be a possibility to join the Phillies rotation in 2013. He finished last year with Triple-A Lehigh Valley and looked impressive in his seven starts. Overall, Pettibone went 13-8 with a 3.10 ERA, striking out 113 batters in 159.2 innings. 

The Phillies and Amaro would probably have to go with what’s already on hand in Halladay’s absence. What’s available to trade might have to be used to fill the team’s opening in right field, unless Amaro and Manuel believe Domonic Brown is the answer at that position. The front office likely wants a better run producer there, however. 

Phillies fans are surely tired of hearing such rumors and speculation, but if Halladay can’t go, rumblings about the team trading Cliff Lee will start up again. While the left-hander would surely help the Phillies compete for a playoff spot and division title, he’s also Amaro‘s most tradeable asset.

Lee is the team’s best chance to fetch a blockbuster return and help the Phillies return to contention faster if their starting rotation can’t feature the three studs that were supposed to set them apart from the competition in 2013. But that might be a “Break glass in case of emergency” situation. 

If Halladay suffers from shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity again, however, it might be an emergency scenario at Citizens Bank Park. Under those circumstances, glass probably won’t be the only thing that Amaro breaks in his office this year. 

 

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Predicting Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s Plan of Action the Rest of the Phillies’ Offseason

Will the Philadelphia Phillies‘ offseason be more memorable for the players general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. missed out on rather than who was brought in? 

Getting one or two outfielders was Amaro‘s stated priority this winter. Consequently, the Phillies were viewed as a possible destination for virtually all of the top free-agent talent at that position. Whether the expectations were realistic or not, Philadelphia was seen as a fit for B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and even Josh Hamilton. 

The Phillies did get the center fielder Amaro coveted, acquiring Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins. But the team is still lacking a right-handed power bat that would bring the lineup some balance. Could Michael Young be that hitter? It seems doubtful, given that he hit eight home runs with a .682 OPS this season. 

However, Young does fill the Phillies’ hole at third base. He’ll have to hit to make up for below-average defense, but considering the options available on the free-agent and trade markets for the position, this could be a nice pickup for Amaro. 

Philadelphia also filled its need for a right-handed setup reliever nicely, signing Mike Adams to a two-year, $12 million contract. Adams is coming off thoracic outlet surgery, but is expected to be ready for Opening Day. If healthy, Adams has been one of the best relievers in MLB over the past five seasons. 

After including Vance Worley in the Revere trade, the Phillies were lacking a fifth starter. Signing John Lannan could take care of that. Lannan spent most of this season in Triple-A Syracuse with the Washington Nationals. But he’s capable of pitching 200 innings and has experience pitching against NL East competition. 

Overall, the Phillies have done a nice job of patching the holes on their roster. But without adding that flashy, difference-making sort of player through free agency or trade, has Amaro really done enough to put his team back into contention with the Nationals and Atlanta Braves in the NL East? 

Unfortunately, the train full of game-changing types of hitters has already left the station. Upton went to the Braves. Swisher signed with the Cleveland Indians. If the Phillies were ever really an option for Hamilton, it’s irrelevant because he’s with the Los Angeles Angels now. 

Players on the second-tier of free agency also signed elsewhere. Torii Hunter signed with the Detroit Tigers. Angel Pagan returned to the San Francisco Giants. 

That doesn’t mean there aren’t some possibilities still available for Amaro. But he might have to take on more salary than preferred to get a power bat in the outfield. 

Vernon Wells has been attached to the Phillies in trade rumors, according to CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury. Wells would certainly provide a right-handed bat for the lineup. But how productive of a hitter is he at this point? Injuries limited Wells to 262 plate appearances this season, but he hit only. 230 with a .682 OPS. 

However, Wells is one year removed from hitting 20 home runs with 66 RBI. Though he compiled a .660 OPS in 2011, the Phillies would likely take those power numbers for one of their outfield openings. 

The big problem with Wells, of course, is that he’s owed $42 million over the remaining two years on his contract. How much of that would the Angels pick up in a deal? How much would Amaro have to give up in such a trade? 

A better option might be Alfonso Soriano from the Chicago Cubs. Soriano hit 32 homers with 108 RBI this year, which would fit nicely between Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the Phillies lineup. But Soriano has two years and $36 million left on his contract. Cubs president Theo Epstein might want more in a trade too, since Soriano put up such impressive numbers.

Additionally, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports that the Phillies are in the mix for Scott Hairston, who hit .286 with an .867 OPS in 199 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this year. 

However, Salisbury points out that the Phillies might prefer someone who can play right field, so Darin Ruf can get a shot in left. Ruf hit 38 homers with 104 RBI for Double-A Reading this year. In 37 plate appearances with the Phillies, he compiled a 1.079 OPS, three home runs and 10 RBI. 

If the Phillies are thus focused more on getting a right fielder, the best player available could be Andre Ethier from the Los Angeles Dodgers. But with a five-year, $85 million contract extension about to begin for him, the best way for Amaro to make that move would be to trade Cliff Lee to the Dodgers.

Amaro doesn’t want to do that. Even though Ethier would add 20 home runs and 85 RBI to the lineup, it’s difficult to see how such a trade would make the Phillies better. If Philadelphia contends in the NL East, it will be because of Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels.

That could leave the Arizona Diamondbacks as Amaro‘s best trade partner. The D-Backs made one of the most surprising moves of this offseason, signing Cody Ross to a three-year, $26 million contract. But while the Phillies didn’t get Ross, they could still benefit because of him.

Signing Ross leaves the D-Backs with a surplus of outfielders. While Justin Upton has been on the block since the July 31 trade deadline, it seems unlikely that Arizona GM Kevin Towers is going to deal him after getting shortstop Didi Gregrious in a three-team trade with the Indians and Reds. 

Even if Towers was still willing to trade Upton, the Phillies don’t have the resources to get him—especially after trading Worley and top pitching prospect Trevor May in the deal for Revere. But Jason Kubel could be attainable. He’s certainly expendable after the D-Backs signed Ross. 

Kubel is a left-handed bat, but if the Phillies were looking at Hamilton or Swisher, that clearly isn’t an obstacle for them. Capable of hitting 25 homers with 95 RBI (he surpassed both of those totals this year in Arizona), Kubel would be the run producer Amaro is seeking. He can also play right field. 

Two other Arizona outfielders that could interest Amaro—though they wouldn’t supply Kubel‘s power—are Gerardo Parra and A.J. Pollock. Parra would provide improved defense and speed to the Phillies lineup. Pollock brings the same skills and also bats right-handed. 

However, with either of those two players joining Revere in the Phillies outfield, the team would really need Ruf to emerge as a legitimate major league power hitter. 

Those looking for the Phillies to sign a big name this winter are probably disappointed by how the offseason has developed thus far. But being patient has worked out relatively well for Amaro, and not being impulsive could still pay off nicely. Plenty of possibilities are still available. 

 

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Why Phillies Trading Cliff Lee for Jacoby Ellsbury Would Be a Terrible Idea

The Philadelphia Phillies still need an outfielder. The Boston Red Sox could still use another starting pitcher. 

While those two situations exist during the offseason, those who follow and cover MLB will try to connect dots and speculate that a trade between the Phillies and Red Sox involving Cliff Lee and Jacoby Ellsbury would be a good idea. 

Curt Schilling—who pitched for both teams in his 20-year major league career—is one such person, suggesting on Twitter that the Phillies give the Red Sox a call and try to make this deal happen. As you might imagine, that stirred up Boston sports talk radio. 

Could this trade really happen? At this point, such rumors look like total speculation, trying to play matchmaker between two teams that could seemingly help each other. As the weather gets colder throughout the country, it’s an attempt to keep baseball’s hot stove season burning. 

Neither side seems interested in making such a deal, though general managers could always be posturing for the media, trying to throw reporters off the trail and placate fans starving for any sort of juicy trade rumors. 

CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury reported that the Red Sox indeed proposed trading Ellsbury to the Phillies for Lee. Boston was told, however, that Lee wasn’t available. Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. wants to keep his starting pitching trio of Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels together. 

Salisbury points out, however, that Amaro‘s stance could change by the July 31 trade deadline if the Phillies aren’t in contention. Reporters like to keep the possibility of juicy trade rumors going too. 

For what it’s worth, Red Sox GM Ben Cherington says he doesn’t want to trade Ellsbury, according to ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes. Cherington expects the center fielder to be an important contributor for the team next season. 

Of course, if Salisbury’s report is accurate, Cherington might feel that way because the Phillies shot down an Ellsbury-for-Lee proposal. 

Rumors of the Red Sox trading Ellsbury just won’t go away, however. The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo has been working hard at chasing them down.

One American League executive told him that Boston might be trying to trade Ellsbury so that they can re-sign Cody Ross. The Red Sox could then move Shane Victorino to center field. MLB general managers apparently like to play the trade speculation game as well. 

Cafardo also checked on the possibility of the Los Angeles Dodgers trading Andre Ethier to Boston for Ellsbury, which would give them a needed leadoff hitter. But Cafardo‘s source with the Dodgers put that rumor out with a quick denial. 

Maybe reporters and fellow general managers are trying to do Cherington‘s job for him and put together a deal. But if other MLB teams think the Red Sox are eager to trade Ellsbury, Cherington likely isn’t going to find a very good deal. Thus, he’s publicly keeping his arms folded and insisting that Ellsbury won’t be dealt away. 

Trade speculation isn’t going to die down, however.

Ellsbury has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining and, as a Scott Boras client, isn’t going to agree to a new contract without testing out the free-agent market for maximum possible value. That has most people thinking that the Red Sox will try to get something in return for Ellsbury before he skips town for a rich contract elsewhere. 

This is why the Phillies aren’t going to take Ellsbury in a trade for Lee.

Lee still has three years on his contract, with a club option for 2016. Though it would give Philadelphia some payroll flexibility to trade Lee and the $87.5 million remaining on his contract (which would go up to $102.5 million if his option is picked up), Amaro isn’t going to trade one of his best players for someone who will likely leave as a free agent after the season. 

Sure, the Phillies could use Ellsbury. He had an MVP-caliber year in 2011, hitting .321 with a .928 OPS, 46 doubles, 32 home runs, 105 RBI and 39 stolen bases. He was also one of the best defensive center fielders in MLB, according to FanGraphs‘ Ultimate Zone Rating, saving nearly 16 runs more than the average player at that position.

If Ellsbury is capable of putting up that kind of performance again, any team would want him. He would obviously be a tremendous addition to the Phillies outfield. 

Even if Philadelphia already traded for Ben Revere, the team could move him to right field, where he played most of his games last season. Amaro could probably live with Darin Ruf or Domonic Brown in left field with Ellsbury on his roster. 

Again, however, it’s not going to happen. Lee isn’t going to be traded for one year of Ellsbury. He definitely isn’t going to be dealt at the trade deadline for what would amount to a three-month rental of Ellsbury if the Phillies aren’t a contender. And if the Red Sox are in the chase for a playoff spot, they probably wouldn’t want to trade Ellsbury either.

That won’t stop reporters and analysts from trying to connect the dots, of course. Trade speculation will follow Lee and Ellsbury throughout the season. The match between the Phillies and Red Sox is just too enticing to ignore. 

 

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Josh Hamilton Rumors: Could Philadelphia Phillies Make Him December Surprise?

Two years ago, it was widely assumed that free-agent pitcher Cliff Lee would sign with the New York Yankees or Texas Rangers.

But the Philadelphia Phillies swooped in and snatched Lee from the American League powerhouses, signing him to a five-year, $120 million contract reportedly lower than what was offered elsewhere. 

Could the Phillies make a similarly surprising move this winter with free-agent outfielder Josh Hamilton? 

According to Anthony Gargano of Philadelphia’s 94WIP, the Phillies have offered a three-year contract to Hamilton. The financial terms of the deal weren’t known, but the Dallas Morning News‘ Gerry Fraley told Gargano that he believed an $80 million package would get Hamilton. 

Last week, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported that the Seattle Mariners had discussed three-year deals with Hamilton with an average annual salary of $20 million to $25 million. The magic number for Hamilton has always reportedly been $25 million per season, but no team has been willing to offer the six- to seven-year package he’s been seeking. 

The presumption has been that if Hamilton could be talked down to a three-year contract such as the one the Mariners were supposedly discussing, other interested teams would jump back into the bidding. Perhaps those would include the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.

Hamilton could also very well return to the Texas Rangers under those terms. According to reports, Texas won’t offer Hamilton any contract longer than three years. The market has apparently worked in the Rangers’ favor, as Hamilton hasn’t found any team interested in giving him four years.

But the Rangers likely feel more urgency to re-sign Hamilton than they may have a week ago.

Texas looked like a favorite to sign pitcher Zack Greinke and was ready to follow that up with a trade for Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton. 

However, Greinke ended up signing a six-year, $147 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Meanwhile, the D-Backs weren’t going to trade Upton without getting a shortstop. The Rangers didn’t want to trade Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar and were trying to arrange a multi-team deal that would get Arizona another team’s shortstop, such as the Indians’ Asdrubal Cabrera.

But thanks to a three-team trade with the Cleveland Indians and Cincinnati Reds, the D-Backs now have their shortstop in Didi Gregorius and probably are not going to trade Upton.  

Some of the money that would have gone toward signing Greinke is now available for Hamilton. And the Rangers still need an outfielder, unless the preference is to pursue someone like Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn instead. 

While the Rangers haven’t been able to acquire the player they want and need, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has a way of getting his man. Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, Hunter Pence and, of course, Lee were all targeted by Amaro and ended up in Philadelphia. 

Upgrading the Phillies outfield was Amaro‘s offseason priority before the 2012 season even ended. He wanted a center fielder and a power hitter for one of the corner spots, preferably a right-handed batter. 

The Phillies eventually got their center fielder, trading pitchers Vance Worley and Trevor May to the Minnesota Twins for Ben Revere. But Amaro still hasn’t gotten the middle-of-the-order run producer he needs. 

Swisher would be a good fit with the ability to play both corner outfield spots and first base. As a switch-hitter, he would also supply a right-handed bat when the Phillies face left-handed pitching. Cody Ross would be a less expensive option, also able to play left and right field. He also provides 20-homer power while batting exclusively right-handed.

But if the Phillies want a star player, someone who can be a major slugger in the middle of the lineup, Hamilton is the one who can fill that role like no other.

He bats left-handed, which isn’t the best fit with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. However, Hamilton hit well against lefty pitching this year, batting ,291 with an .853 OPS. He would not be an automatic out when facing tough left-handers, nor would he have to sit on the bench for such matchups. 

The big question for the Phillies is whether or not Hamilton and a salary likely to exceed $25 million (it will be nearly $27 million if his contract is for $80 million over three years) fits a payroll that Amaro wants to keep below the $178 million luxury tax threshold for 2013. 

According to Cot’s Contracts, the Phillies already have nearly $144 million committed to player salaries for next season.

That only gives Amaro $34 million to play with 13 players to sign for next season, several of whom will get raises through the arbitration process. Is there really $27 million available for Hamilton under those circumstances?

Perhaps that’s why a source with the Phillies told ESPN’s Jayson Stark that he would be “shocked” if Hamilton wound up in Philadelphia. 

But there actually might be some wiggle room in that $144 million already on the Phillies’ payroll.

Cot’s Contracts has Michael Young down for $16 million, his salary for 2013. But according to USA Today, the Phillies will only have to pay $6 million of that figure. Perhaps that extra $10 million is just what Amaro needs to fit Hamilton into his budget. 

Could the Phillies pull off another heist that leaves the Rangers wondering what happened? Signing Hamilton wouldn’t be as much of a surprise as getting Lee because no team has emerged as the true favorite for his services. 

But Amaro has been patient this offseason while other outfielders like B.J. Upton, Angel Pagan and Denard Span went to other teams. That approach might finally pay off, resulting in the Phillies catching the biggest fish in this year’s free-agent sea. 

 

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How Ben Revere Trade Impacts the Philadelphia Phillies’ Offseason Plans

While other teams in the NL East have been making major moves this offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies have been quiet.

The Atlanta Braves signed B.J. Upton and the Washington Nationals traded for Denard Span, taking two center fielders off the market that would have helped the Phillies lineup. The New York Mets signed David Wright to a seven-year contract extension. And the Miami Marlins traded five players to the Toronto Blue Jays.

But the Phillies and general manager Ruben Amaro finally kick-started their offseason on Thursday and got the center fielder they needed.

As reported by MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, Philadelphia acquired center fielder Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins and paid a pretty heavy price to fill a glaring need. Going to the Twins are pitchers Vance Worley and Trevor May. 

Worley went 6-9 with a 4.20 ERA this past season for the Phillies. He was much better in 2011, compiling an 11-3 record and 3.01 ERA, and the general consensus was that Worley‘s numbers didn’t exactly reflect what sort of pitcher he was. That may have shown itself with his 2012 performance. 

Still, a one-for-one trade of Worley for Revere would have been seen as reasonable. Including May in the package, however, tips the deal in the Twins’ favor. 

May was the Phillies’ No. 1 prospect this year, as rated by Baseball America. He didn’t have a strong 2012, posting a 10-13 record and 4.87 ERA in 28 starts for Double-A Reading. May still profiles as a strikeout pitcher, however, averaging 9.1 K’s per nine innings. 

Revere, meanwhile, isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2014 season. That means the Phillies won’t have to pay him much for the next two years.

But he’s also under club control for six years altogether, through 2018, according to The Morning Call’s Mandy Housenick. Still, that’s a hefty price for a player who’s shown in his two full seasons that he’s a capable major league center fielder and leadoff hitter. 

Two weeks ago, I wrote an article asking if the Phillies would trade starting pitching to help plug some holes in the lineup. Obviously, the answer to that question is yes. 

Amaro now doesn’t have to worry about center field for a long time. Yet he still needs to fill a few spots on his roster. Giving up a back-of-the-rotation starter and a pitching prospect leaves the Phillies with fewer resources to do that. 

At the top of the shopping list has to be a corner outfielder who hits right-handed and for power.

Nick Swisher fills that criteria nicely. Though he’s a switch-hitter that would bat left-handed most of the time, Swisher would turn around and bat right-handed against southpaws. He could fill in at first base for Ryan Howard under those circumstances. 

Swisher will be expensive, however. Amaro didn’t want to give B.J. Upton the five-year, $75.25 million deal he received from the Braves.

However, that may have been due to doubts about his ability to hit for contact and get on base. Swisher did strike out 141 times this year, but his .364 on-base percentage would have been third in the Phillies lineup behind Carlos Ruiz and Chase Utley.

A less pricey option could be Cody Ross, who almost certainly isn’t going to re-sign with the Boston Red Sox after they added Jonny Gomes and Shane Victorino to their outfield. The Phillies may have to compete with the Yankees to sign Ross, but the Yanks have been frugal this offseason and could surely be outbid. 

At third base, the options aren’t as plentiful. However, reports have the Phillies involved in trade talks with the Texas Rangers for Michael Young.

While Young’s best days are behind him (he had a .682 OPS this year) and his defense at third base is below average, he would definitely be a useful right-handed bat for the Phillies lineup. According to ESPN Dallas’ Richard Durrett, the deal is contingent on Young waiving his no-trade clause and agreeing to go to Philadelphia. 

Trading for Young would leave money available to spend on other positions as well.

Among free-agent third basemen, Kevin Youkilis is the best player available, but the Phillies likely want a longer-term solution there. The Yankees reportedly offered him a one-year, $13 million contract, which might be more than Philadelphia wants to pay.

Kevin Frandsen and Freddy Galvis could be in-house solutions. Or perhaps Amaro takes a chance on someone like Chone Figgins. Fox Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi said the Phillies have indeed checked in on Figgins, who was released by the Mariners. 

One more item on Amaro‘s list is a reliever who can set up for closer Jonathan Papelbon.

The Phillies thought they had their man with Wilton Lopez, but a deal with the Houston Astros fell through, presumably because Philadelphia didn’t like how Lopez’s elbow looked. Lopez has since been traded to the Colorado Rockies, which is curious. 

But since there’s been so little movement on the free-agent market while Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton decide where they’ll sign, Amaro will probably be able to wait until late into the offseason to find some arms that fit what the Phillies are looking for.

Brandon Lyon, Jon Rauch and Francisco Rodriguez are just a few of the many relievers available. Philadelphia should be in position to get a good one. 

The Phillies appeared to be running behind in the NL East after the Braves signed Upton. That was probably a reactionary view with so many players still available. And now, it’s looking as if Amaro‘s patience may be yielding some benefits.

Getting the center fielder was key. That was going to be either the most expensive signing or difficult trade to pull off, but now the Phillies have Revere. The Phillies’ other offseason moves will begin to fall into place from here. 

 

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How the Phillies Coming Up Empty on B.J. Upton Could Doom Their Offseason

The Atlanta Braves introduced new centerfielder B.J. Upton to media and fans on Thursday (Nov. 29), making his free-agent signing official.

Meanwhile, what is Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. thinking after the Braves and Upton agreed to a five-year, $75.25 million deal?

At first glance, this appears to be a major blow to the Phillies’ offseason plans. Upton would have filled two of the team’s major needs, providing a centerfielder and a right-handed power bat that the lineup is sorely lacking. 

Sure, there are several other centerfielders still available on the open market, a couple of whom are superstar talents. But Upton seemed to be the best fit for the reasons mentioned above. So where do Amaro and the Phillies go from here? 

First of all, the Phillies and their fans might reject the notion that they lost out on Upton. The Phillies tend to get their man, whether through free agency or trade, so perhaps losing Upton to the Braves indicates that Amaro didn’t want him as much as believed.

The Phillies’ offer to Upton seems to hint at that. According to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, the best package Philadelphia proposed was a five-year, $55 million deal. That falls far below what Upton was likely to get on the open market and calls into question just how serious Amaro was about signing the centerfielder. 

As the Philadelphia Daily News‘ David Murphy points out, Upton has been the sort of player the Phillies already have, one who doesn’t hit for contact nor draw many walks. Obviously, the Braves are betting on his upside, hoping that he’ll improve in those areas. But Amaro apparently didn’t want to take the risk that Upton is what he is. 

Certainly the Phillies can get a more dependable offensive player.

Nick Swisher would fit nicely in either corner outfield spot. He could also be a right-handed bat at first base when Ryan Howard sits against tough left-handed pitching. While Swisher wouldn’t provide the speed that Upton could, he hits for power and gets on base far more. 

If Amaro favors a leadoff hitter, the best available is still on the market in Michael Bourn. Bourn would bring more speed and better defense to the Phillies lineup than Upton would. But he’ll also likely be more expensive and is something of a one-dimensional player on offense. 

The market for Bourn may even be tilting in the Phillies’ favor. The Washington Nationals were considered the favorites to sign him, but acquired outfielder Denard Span from the Minnesota Twins, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. 

The next best option for Philadelphia after Upton could be Angel Pagan. He doesn’t have Upton’s power, but profiles as a leadoff hitter for the Phillies who can hit for contact, get on base and steal bases. As a switch-hitter, he would also hit right-handed against left-handed pitching. 

A five-year, $55 million contract for Pagan might work. Perhaps that’s what Amaro had in mind with that offer to Upton. Maybe that’s the figure he had in mind and thought it was worth floating to Upton, even though he knew it would be rejected. But that kind of deal could very well get Pagan. 

That might be why we know the Phillies made that offer, as well. We can scrunch our faces up at it, knowing it would have taken far more to sign Upton. But Pagan and his agent could see that figure and call Amaro up. Upton may not have wanted it, but we’ll take it. 

Such a contract could also be appealing to former Phillies centerfielder Shane Victorino. Amaro might not be interested in giving that much money to Victorino since he witnessed the outfielder’s decline first-hand. Had the Phillies made that kind of offer to Victorino previously, he surely wouldn’t have been traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

Then, of course, there’s Josh Hamilton. He’s the best position player on the free-agent market. And some expect the Phillies to make that move, according to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.

 

“Watch out for #phillies to surprise everyone and sign Hamilton,” said one prominent agent. A scout told me the same thing.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) November 29, 2012

 

Even if Hamilton bats left-handed, he’s such an explosive hitter that it likely won’t matter to the Phillies. Besides, Hamilton has a .280 average and .808 OPS versus lefties. He’s not an automatic out in that matchup.

Two other trade possibilities that Philadelphia may be considering, as pointed out by Delaware Online’s Chris Branch, are Peter Bourjos from the Los Angeles Angels and Dexter Fowler from the Colorado Rockies. 

Another major consideration is that the Phillies have more than one need to address this offseason. Amaro couldn’t go all in on a centerfielder. The team needs at least one more outfielder, probably a third baseman and a setup reliever in the bullpen.

It looked like Philadelphia had its setup man, working out a deal for Houston Astros reliever Wilton Lopez. However, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports that the potential trade has fallen through, most likely because Lopez failed his physical. 

Losing out on Upton and Lopez looks like a nasty one-two punch to the Phillies so far this offseason.

But it’s obviously still early, with the winter meetings not even taking place yet and so many players still available on the free-agent market. Amaro could get all of his business done next week (Dec. 3-6) in Nashville.

It rarely works out that cleanly for an MLB general manager. But being patient may just end up being Amaro‘s best move.

 

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