Why the Phillies Were Mistakenly Caught Halfway Between Much-Needed Fire Sale

How long has it been since the Philadelphia Phillies were in the position of selling off talent at the trade deadline, rather than adding players? 

Was it 2006, when Bobby Abreu was dumped to the New York Yankees for four nondescript minor leaguers with little to no hope of reaching the majors? 

After that season, Philadelphia began its run of five consecutive division titles. The team went on to win a World Series championship in 2008. Ruben Amaro Jr. then replaced Pat Gillick as general manager. The Phillies followed up with another trip to the World Series, but lost to the Yankees. Winning the NL East and making a deep playoff run had become a formality.

So for the Phillies to play far below expectations and become sellers at the trade deadline to salvage a lost season was a position Amaro was completely unfamiliar with as an executive. Perhaps that’s why he couldn’t manage the extensive sell-off that the team needed to retool and reload for a return to success next season. 

 

Fire Sale? What Fire Sale?

To be fair, Amaro was never going to hold an outright fire sale.

The Phillies were expected to contend for yet another NL East title or make the playoffs as a wild card, at the very least. Unfortunately, many things went wrong at the same time, resulting in a horribly disappointing season. Injuries, poor performance, misguided roster construction and bad managing all contributed to the downfall. 

But winning was always the expectation. The Phillies had the second-highest payroll in baseball. Philadelphia fans packed Citizens Bank Park, providing the Phillies with the highest average attendance this season. (The Phillies led MLB in average attendance last year as well.) 

With that kind of support, along with the high-priced veteran talent on the roster, a complete dismantling of the team was never going to happen. 

Anyone thinking the Phillies were going to break up the band surely felt otherwise after Amaro signed free-agent-to-be Cole Hamels to a six-year, $144 million contract extension that made him the second-highest paid pitcher in baseball.

A team looking to rebuild doesn’t hand out a contract like that. And Hamels wouldn’t have re-signed with the Phillies if he thought the team was going to undergo a reconstruction centered around an ace starting pitcher. 

 

Avoid That Luxury Tax

However, trimming payroll was definitely a consideration for Amaro. From all accounts (including this one from CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury), Amaro’s priority was getting the Phillies under the $178 million threshold that would trigger a luxury tax.

That would have cost Philadelphia a 20 percent tax for every dollar over $178 million. The tax would go up to 30 percent if the Phillies exceed the $178 million threshold again next season. 

If the Phillies were on their way to another division title and looked like a contender to win the National League pennant, perhaps Amaro and team ownership would have been willing to pay that luxury tax. But suffering that kind of penalty for a last-place team with no shot at contention was unacceptable. 

To get the payroll under $178 million, Amaro had to get rid of some money. However, he didn’t have to slice a drastic amount from the team’s player budget. 

 

Not Far Enough?

But did Amaro take the sell-off effort as far as he could have? Should he have tried to trim even more money from the Phillies’ payroll? 

Trading Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence accomplished the objective of getting payroll under the luxury tax threshold. Pence was particularly important because the salary he would have gotten through the arbitration process was projected to be $14 million (based on his $10.4 million salary this year).

That money could be used to either fill multiple holes on the roster or sign a better player. The Philadelphia Daily News‘ David Murphy points to Carlos Beltran as an example of a highly productive player who was signed for less money per year. Beltran signed a two-year, $26 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals before this season.

However, if that’s the philosophy, how many other holes could be filled with the more than $100 million owed to Cliff Lee over the remaining four years (including a club option) of his contract?

Signing a center field upgrade over Victorino (such as Michael Bourn) and a lower-cost starting pitcher to replace Lee could be accomplished with that money.

That’s presumably why rumors of Lee being traded were buzzing right up until Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET deadline.

The Phillies spoke publicly of fielding a playoff contender with a rotation led by Roy Halladay, Lee and Hamels. But if another team like the Texas Rangers was willing to make a deal for Lee—especially if a coveted third base prospect like Mike Olt was involved—the Phillies surely considered making a move. 

But even without dealing Lee, Amaro could have sold off other pieces to pare more payroll.

Joe Blanton was almost traded to the Baltimore Orioles, though the O’s supposedly balked at having to pay the $3 million he still has to be paid this season. Without that, what would be the point of trading Blanton? 

How about trading Ty Wigginton and the $4 million option on his contract for next season? Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians and Pittsburgh Pirates needed infield help.

Juan Pierre doesn’t make an excessive amount of money ($800,000 this season), but what role could he play for the rest of the season? The Phillies need to give Domonic Brown as much playing time as possible, in order to see if he has a future in Philadelphia or can be traded elsewhere. Pierre would be of far more use to a team like the Cincinnati Reds, who need a leadoff hitter. 

 

Where’s the Future?

Some of these failed trade connections can be revisited before the Aug. 31 waiver trade deadline. And a bigger deal involving Lee could be made during the offseason. 

Amaro has to renew those efforts because he didn’t get enough in the deals he made.

The Phillies got a couple of pitching prospects as well as a pair of major league contributors who could help the team next season. They may have also gotten their catcher of the future.

But Amaro didn’t get the young center fielder or third baseman, each ideally close to ready for the majors, that he wanted from such trades. 

Maybe those players won’t be available until after the season. If they are, however, Amaro has to do what he can to fill those needs on his roster. Otherwise, he may get to try another fire sale at next year’s trade deadline.

 

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Is It Finally Time for the Phillies to Accept That 2012 Is a Lost Season?

Could rookie infielder Freddy Galvis be the physical embodiment of the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies?

Earlier this week, Galvis was diagosed with a fractured vertebra. To treat the injury, he’s been outfitted for a brace which he’ll have to wear for three weeks. During that time, he can’t engage in any physical activity. Galvis has to wear the brace at all times, except when he showers. 

But here’s the sentence from Matt Gelb’s Philadelphia Inquirer story that may as well be talking about the entire Phillies team, rather than just Galvis:

“The Phillies rookie second baseman will miss significant time with the injury, but the team is not ready to proclaim his season over.”

Just take out “rookie second baseman” and substitute “his” with “their,” and you’ve essentially summed up the 2012 season for the Phillies right there.

The Phillies did what they needed to do this week in taking two of three from the lowly Minnesota Twins. But prior to that, the Phightins slogged through one of their worst stretches of the season. They suffered a four-game sweep at Citizens Bank Park to the Los Angeles Dodgers and lost two of three to the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.

The Dodgers series was especially troubling. Not just because no team should lose all four games of a particular series at home, but because the Dodgers have the best record in the National League. This was a chance for the Phillies to see whether or not they could hang with the top competition in the NL. Viewing it as a test, however, the Phillies failed miserably.

Over the past week, Philadelphia has dropped three games in the NL East standings. Going into Friday’s play, the Phillies are nine games behind the first-place Washington Nationals.

They can still make a climb and get past the Miami Marlins, who are only two games ahead. The Braves are within striking range, too, four games up on the Phillies.

But are the Nationals already out of reach? They seem to be getting better each week and should continue to improve as their injured players come back. 

Yes, the Phillies have some wounded men set to return as well. But they’ll have a considerable hole to help dig out of when they get back on the field. 

The counter-argument is that the Phillies are only 4.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race, and with an additional team getting into the playoffs, there is still an excellent chance at getting into the postseason.

Yet there are seven teams ahead of the Phillies in the Wild Card standings. That’s quite a few clubs to climb over to get to the lead. All seven of them aren’t just going to fall down like dominoes and let the Phillies walk into the playoffs. 

But that Wild Card makes for a difficult decision on whether or not to pull the plug on 2012 and start selling off assets. Can general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. really justify doing so when the numbers say his team is still in the race and fans keep filling Citizens Bank Park with expectations of a playoff berth and postseason run? 

Unless the Phillies start winning some games and making a notable move up the standings, talk about them being sellers at the trade deadline is only going to get louder. ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden rates the Phillies as a “possible” seller, listing Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino and Domonic Brown as players they could deal off. I think you could add Hunter Pence, Joe Blanton and maybe even Jonathan Papelbon to that list. 

David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News composed an excellent post detailing what sort of return the Phillies could expect in return for each of the potential trade pieces on the current roster.

Going by Murphy’s formula, should the Phillies trade Hamels if they could get a top-50 prospect, along with two to three other players that are considered top-10 prospects for a particular team? 

If you’re the Phillies and you have doubts not only about being able to contend for the playoffs this year, but also question whether or not you can re-sign Hamels if he opts for free agency, don’t you have to make that move at this point? 

Re-signing Hamels can’t be completely written off as we near the three-month mark of the season. The Dodgers just signed Andre Ethier to a contract extension and he was due for free agency this winter also. 

But Hamels and his people don’t seem interested in signing any deal now. And why should they? Matt Cain got $127 million from the Giants. What could Hamels get when teams are competing for his services, some of whom figure to have big money to spend? 

The risk of losing Hamels with no return is too great at this point. And what is the reward if the Phillies do re-sign him? Another $20 million pitcher on the payroll that further handcuffs Amaro from using available funds to upgrade left field, third base or the bullpen? Would any money be left for possibly re-signing Shane Victorino? 

Of course, re-signing Hamels would give the Phillies a sure thing, unlike whatever prospects would be yielded in a trade. Justin Smoak and Matt LaPorta looked like huge returns in deals for Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia, respectively. But neither player has yet become the cornerstone player that’s expected with such a trade. 

Phillies fans surely don’t want to hear this. But writing off this season and selling some pieces now will help make next year’s team stronger. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will hopefully be back healthy to join whatever new additions Amaro can make at midseason and during the winter. Sacrificing 2012 for a better 2013 is a noble endeavor. 

 

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NL Worst of the Night: Chad Qualls Blows Phillies’ Chance at Comeback Win

Thursday’s games in the National League gave us two excellent—or terrible—candidates for our “Worst of the Night” award. (OK, it’s not really an award. But you knew that.) 

In a 14-2 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros reliever Rhiner Cruz surrendered five runs, three hits and two walks in one inning of work. He gave up a two-run homer to Shane Robinson. Yet he also struck three batters out.

When Cruz came in for the seventh inning, the Astros were down, 5-2.  By the time he left and all of his baserunners scored, the score was 10-2. 

Over at Citizens Bank Park, Chad Qualls entered the game with the Los Angeles Dodgers holding a 4-3 ninth-inning lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. But he could only get one out as he allowed four runs (three earned, thanks to a Mike Fontenot error) on five hits. When Raul Valdes relieved Qualls, the Phillies were down, 8-3.

So which was the worst performance between Cruz and Qualls? It’s subjective, of course. But given that Qualls entered a one-run ballgame and his team still had a chance to win, I’ll argue that his meltdown hurt his team more.

Plus, he only lasted 0.1 of an inning, while Cruz at least got three outs. That gives Qualls the winning (losing?) edge.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Phillies. It’s among the many reasons that the team holds last place in the NL East and hasn’t been able to make much of a push up the standings.

To be fair, Qualls had actually pitched relatively well in recent games before his Thursday night outing. He hadn’t allowed a run in his past four appearances, giving up just one hit.

However, he’s struggled to put together a sustained streak of success. Prior to those four scoreless outings, he gave up three runs and four hits (three of them home runs) in 3.2 innings.

The Phillies could obviously use some help in their bullpen. But replacing Qualls wouldn’t completely turn around the team’s fortunes.

Right now, they also need help all over the roster. Suffering a four-game sweep at home to the Dodgers extended their losing streak to six games. Philadelphia is the one team in the NL East that appears to be falling out of the race, six games behind the first-place Atlanta Braves and four back of the Miami Marlins. 

 

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NL Best of the Night: Ty Wigginton Racks Up 6 RBI in Phillies 8-4 Win over Mets

Isn’t the Fourth of July when all the fireworks are supposed to take place? Plenty of bats exploded for Memorial Day throughout MLB.

The Colorado Rockies‘ Dexter Fowler went 4-for-4 with three RBI, a home run and a triple in the nightcap of a doubleheader with the Houston Astros. (Fowler went 7-for-12 in the two games.) Chase Headley of the San Diego Padres had a 4-for-5 holiday with two homers and three RBI.

Of course, someone had to light those firecrackers and several pitchers got shelled on Monday. Luke Gregorson of the Padres gave up three runs and four hits in just 2/3rd of an inning. Manny Acosta also allowed three runs and four hits, but in 1/3rd of an inning for the New York Mets. Teammate Jonathon Niese walked five batters. And the Atlanta Braves‘ Tommy Hanson was roughed up for six runs and eight hits in just 3 1/3 innings.

But one guy still managed to stand out from those great and terrible performances. Ty Wigginton drove in six runs for the Philadelphia Phillies in their 8-4 win over the Mets on Monday. Playing first base, Wigginton batted 3-for-3 with a three-run homer and two walks. That gave Cole Hamels all the run support he needed on a day he wasn’t at his sharpest.

The six RBI was a career-high total for Wigginton. The 11-year veteran is in his first year with the Phillies and has provided a decent replacement at first base for the injured Ryan Howard. As a first baseman this season, Wigginton is batting .280/352/.415 with three homers and 12 RBI. Monday’s game pushed Wigginton’s OPS back over .700 for the first time in his past 10 games.

“He sure did have a big day,” Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said about Wigginton after the game. “He did the hittin’ for us.”

The Phillies have struggled for offense all season long, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that they’ve won four of their past five games while scoring almost seven runs per contest. During that stretch, Wigginton has two three-hit games, slugging a homer in each one.

In the other three games, however, Wigginton went a combined 0-for-12. So he’s almost literally hit or miss right now. Fortunately for the Phillies, when those hits come, they’ve been coming in bunches. 

 

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Fueled by Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies Are Making a Push in NL East

If you enjoyed taking your shots at the Philadelphia Phillies while they had a losing record and were digging themselves a last-place hole in the NL East, you might have to find another team to jeer now.

As disappointing as the Phillies have been this season, they had never fallen lower than four games under .500. No, a 6.5-game deficit in the division standings didn’t look good, but that’s hardly an insurmountable obstacle with more than 120 games remaining on the schedule. 

So talking about the Phillies being sellers at the trade deadline, as ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden did this week and I did myself last week, may have been a bit premature.

The Phillies almost certainly have tabled such talk after leaping over the .500 hurdle Thursday night with an 8-7 win over the Chicago Cubs. That gave the Fightins a winning record for the first time since they began the season at 1-0.

This is still a last-place team with four teams between them and the NL East’s top spot. But the Phillies are only five-and-a-half games back and the division is pretty tightly packed. The Miami Marlins are two-and-a-half games ahead for fourth place, while the New York Mets are only one game better for third. 

One good or bad streak could change things in a big way. The Phillies have put themselves in this position by winning five in a row and six of their last seven.

Philadelphia’s schedule presented just such an opportunity, with the Padres, Astros and Cubs laid out for them. Had the Phillies not been able to capitalize on lesser competition, then the concerns would have been more valid.

After helping them to right the ship a bit, the Phillies’ schedule will soon allow them to directly influence the NL East standings. Following this weekend’s interleague series with the Red Sox, Philadelphia will play nine of its next 13 games against division rivals. That could help them move up the standings in a big way. 

One big factor in the Phillies’ recent surge has been catcher Carlos Ruiz. Since Apr. 24, when his batting average was a season-low .265 with an OPS of .745, Ruiz’s bat has caught fire. He’s batted .438 (28-for-64) with five home runs and 23 RBI.

During that stretch, Ruiz’s slash average to .363/.405/.619. That .363 batting average is currently the third-best in the NL, with his 1.024 OPS ranked as the sixth-highest total.

You might not expect Ruiz’s name to be listed with the best hitters in baseball, yet there he is. 

For a team without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in its lineup, while Hunter Pence (7.88 OPS), Shane Victorino (.694) and Jimmy Rollins (.580) have struggled, Ruiz’s performance has made a huge difference for the Phillies.

The bullpen remains a major concern, however, and will have to show some significant improvement for the Phillies to keep making a push. Jake Diekman was awful in his second major league appearance, giving up four runs on one hit and two walks in just two-thirds of an inning. Chad Qualls and Jose Contreras don’t leave the team with many good options in middle relief, other than Antonio Bastardo.

If Ruben Amaro has to make one move, bolstering the bullpen should be it. And if that’s the most significant concern Amaro has to address right now, then the Phillies might be in better shape than many of us thought.

They’re certainly beginning to look that way.

 

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Why Ruben Amaro Jr. May Blow Up Phillies’ Roster Come July

Today’s Captain Obvious statement: This season hasn’t gone very well for the Philadelphia Phillies.

After an encouraging road trip with series wins over the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals, the top two teams in the NL East, the Phillies flew straight down for a crash landing and were swept at home by the New York Mets.

That left the Phillies in last place with a 14-18 record, the third-worst mark in the National League. Manager Charlie Manuel saw all he could stand and couldn’t stand anymore after the 10-6 loss that finished off the sweep.

“We have to wake up and play better,” Manuel said to reporters after he called a team meeting. “We don’t like what we’ve been doing.”

“If we want to win and be able to go where we want to go, we better start playing better. We have to hit better, we have to catch the ball better and we have to pitch better. All three phases of the game. I think we need to get back to playing the game the way it needs to play, if we can.”

MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki correctly zeroed in on those last three words. Is there doubt as to whether the Phillies can really turn this thing around? 

Hours later, in a conversation with CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. went to a place Phillies fans surely never expected. 

“July is so far ahead,” Amaro said. “We just have to get on track. But if July comes and we’re playing like this, we’ll be sellers. How we play now will determine whether we’ll be buyers or sellers in July.”

The Phillies as sellers at the trade deadline? This is a team with championship expectations, projected to win the NL East, though perhaps warding off challenges from the Nationals and Miami Marlins. 

 

Impotent Lineup, Imploding Bullpen

Sure, it was bound to be rough in the early going.

Chase Utley wasn’t able to overcome knee injuries during the spring and his return is uncertain. Ryan Howard is out until at least mid-June, recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. Placido Polanco dealt with a finger injury and seems to be aging rapidly. Juan Pierre didn’t make the team until the end of spring training and is now the regular left fielder.

But if offensive struggles were expected, troubles from the bullpen were not.

Chad Qualls has allowed four runs and nine hits in his last three innings of work. Jose Contreras carries an 8.59 ERA. Kyle Kendrick has become a walking meltdown. Michael Schwimer and his 8.53 ERA were optioned to Class AAA, as was Brian Sanches and his 11.53 ERA. Joe Savery also boarded a shuttle to Lehigh Valley. 

Amaro could upgrade both of those areas if he was to start selling off pieces. That would be one reason to start breaking this thing down in July. 

 

Old and Busted

The Phillies’ roster also just needs to get younger. With an average age of 31.5, it’s the oldest club in the major leagues. Amaro has been able to plug holes with aging veterans like Ty Wigginton, Laynce Nix and Jim Thome, but it’s caught up with them as those players continue to break down with injuries. 

Trading away some of those veterans, especially the ones whose contracts expire after this season, would help replenish a minor league system that’s been tapped out by Amaro’s blockbuster dealing. This season has shown that the Phillies are in dire need of reinforcements, but none are available.

 

Who Could Go?

Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino would be the obvious places to start, since the Phillies risk losing them in free agency anyway. Not so coincidentally, the Toronto Blue Jays have already inquired about both players, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.  

But which contenders wouldn’t relish the chance to add one of the best pitchers in baseball? Even better, he’s left-handed. Teams on the fringes of the race might decide Hamels could provide a major boost, too. 

Victorino could help several teams in need of outfield help and speed, such as the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers. I’d say the Nationals too, but Amaro likely isn’t going to make a deal with a division rival. 

That could also apply to Hunter Pence, who could supply some outfield pop for any team in need.

If the Phillies don’t envision signing Pence to a long-term contract, he has one more year of arbitration eligibility that would keep him under club control until 2014. That’s a luxury that could allow Amaro to ask for more in trade. Although that’s the kind of player the Phillies should keep right now. 

 

Yes, much can change between now and July. And Philadelphia fans would surely hate giving up on this season when so much was expected.

But the early signs are not promising for the Phillies. Though they’re hardly out of the race from where they stand now, there are still four teams to leapfrog for the division lead. That’s a hurdle looking increasingly too high to clear. 

With Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, along with Howard and his albatross of a contract, the Phillies aren’t going to go into full rebuilding mode. There’s no need for that. But if the feeling is that the team can’t win this year, Amaro should do what he can to improve those chances for next year. 

Sacrifice 2012 to come back stronger in 2013? It gets easier to imagine with each Phillies loss.

 

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NL Worst of the Night: Kyle Kendrick’s Late-Inning Implosion Dooms Phillies

Highlighting a bad performance from the previous night in baseball might seem like a harsh way to start the morning. But look at it this way: If you had a rough night or bad day, here’s someone who may have had it worse.

May I begin by saying how excited I am about today’s “Worst of the Night” post? Because this will be the first time we’ve had a repeat winner. Or loser, as it were.

There were other candidates from Wednesday night in the National League. Matt Kemp went 0-for-5 in the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ 6-2 win over the San Francisco Giants. That dropped his batting average back below .400 after briefly getting over that mark for a couple of games.

Also, Donnie Murphy of the Miami Marlins went 0-for-6 and left five men on base in a 5-3 victory over the Houston Astros. That’s probably the last time Ozzie Guillen decides to give Omar Infante the night off. (Infante ended up with the game-winning, two-run single in the 12th inning.)

And we should have some sort of team designation for the Milwaukee Brewers, who wasted an outstanding effort from Zack Greinke. Greinke allowed just two hits over eight shutout innings, also striking out 11 Cincinnati Reds. Yet in the ninth, John Axford allowed three two-out hits, resulting in two runs and an eventual 2-1 loss.

Most nights, any of these three would be excellent candidates for NL Worst of the Night honors. (Though I’d probably lean toward giving Kemp or Murphy a pass since their teams won, to be honest.)

But Kyle Kendrick‘s late-inning meltdown in the Philadelphia Phillies‘ 10-6 loss to the New York Mets makes him our returning champion.  

Kendrick took over for Cliff Lee in the seventh, with the Phillies holding a 4-2 lead. He then lit himself on fire (figuratively speaking, of course), putting the first four batters he faced on base.

A leadoff walk to Kirk Nieuwenhuis began the steamroller. That was followed by an RBI double from Justin Turner. Ike Davis, who hasn’t hit anything lately, then hit another double. Up next, Kendrick walked the No. 8 hitter, Rob Johnson, to load the bases. 

Alertly sensing that Kendrick might be vulnerable, Mets manager Terry Collins pinch-hit Lucas Duda for Tim Byrdak. Kendrick then hit Duda with a pitch, bringing in the game-tying run. 

You can see the hit-by-pitch here.

The Mets took the lead on an RBI groundout from Andres Torres. But Kendrick briefly calmed the flames by getting Daniel Murphy to hit into an inning-ending double play. Hey, the sinker worked!

Amazingly, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel sent Kendrick out for the eighth inning. Still reeking of gasoline, he proceeded to serve up back-to-back doubles to David Wright and Scott Hairston, giving the Mets a 6-4 lead. That ended Kendrick’s night.

To sum up, Kendrick faced nine batters and got three outs. (He arguably only really got two batters out, since one hit into a double play.) He allowed five runs (Hairston later scored on a home run by the suddenly revitalized Davis), four hits, two walks and hit one batter. 

That implosion earned Kendrick NL Worst of the Night honors for the second time in two weeks. I’m sure he doesn’t want congratulations for that.

By the way, if you’re keeping count (and someone has to), Kendrick has allowed 16 runs in his last 15 innings.

During that stretch, he’s given up 27 hits, three homers and six walks. His past four appearances have tagged him with three losses and a blown save. I have no idea if we’ll be handing any Worst of the Year designations, but if so, Kendrick has to be one of the early favorites for that award.  

Again, don’t congratulate him. 

 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Batting Juan Pierre 2nd Shows How Bleak Lineup Has Been

The inability of the Philadelphia Phillies to score runs has been one of the prevalent storylines of the 2012 season thus far. 

Just how bad have the Phillies been?

Heading into Monday night, Charlie Manuel’s team has scored 70 runs. Even the San Diego Padres have scored more runs, playing in a cavernous Petco Park.

Only the Pittsburgh Pirates have scored fewer, and their 49 runs make the Phillies look like an offensive juggernaut. If the Phillies were in the American League, they would be second-to-last in runs scored, behind the Oakland Athletics.

The lineup has been so bad that Manuel penciled Juan Pierre into the No. 2 spot on Sunday. Pierre signed a minor league deal with the Phillies in the offseason and beat out Scott Podsednik for the fifth outfielder spot. He wasn’t added to the major league roster until the end of spring training. 

Did we mention Pierre hasn’t batted as a No. 2 hitter since 2009? The Philadelphia Daily News‘ David Murphy pointed that out on Sunday. 

Pierre actually hasn’t done so badly in that spot, however. He has nearly 5,500 fewer plate appearances batting second than at the top of the order. But his .293/.340/.349 slash average is similar to his numbers as a leadoff hitter. 

If anything, batting Pierre second might prevent him from trying to steal bases, something he’s become increasingly bad at, judging by the number of times he’s been caught stealing.

(He was caught 17 times last season, which led the majors. And he’s been gunned down in two out of five attempts this year.) 

Manuel tends to rotate different hitters in that No. 2 spot, but batting Pierre there is quite a step down from the likes of Placido Polanco, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino. 

Utley, of course, is unavailable. And because the Phillies need someone to bat in the middle of the order with Utley and Ryan Howard out, Victorino is needed far more there.

Polanco has been the quintessential No. 2 hitter over his career—and he’s batting there Tuesday night against the Chicago Cubs—but he’s struggled with injuries and questions about decreased bat speed.

His numbers have seen a steady decline since 2009, but a .239/.292/.269 slash average is far below what Polanco usually produces. 

Ultimately, this might be more about moving Jimmy Rollins back to the leadoff position, though. Batting him in the third spot was a disaster, so Manuel put him where he’s been most accustomed, hoping it provides a jolt to his flagging production. 

That left Pierre to hit someplace else. With the numbers he’s gotten from the others he’s tried in the No. 2 spot, Manuel unfortunately may have no better option than to put Pierre there. 

 

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NL Worst of the Night: Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Kendrick Is Crushed

Highlighting a bad performance from the previous night in baseball might seem like a harsh way to start the morning. But look at it this way: If you had a rough night or bad day, here’s someone who may have had it worse.

After losing four of the first seven games on their West Coast road trip, the Philadelphia Phillies have spiraled down to last place in the NL East, five games behind the Washington Nationals. The Fightin’s have been anything but, and need a good week to right the ship.

That week didn’t get off to a good start Monday night, thanks to Kyle Kendrick. Starting his first game of the season in relief of the injured Cliff Lee, the Arizona Diamondbacks pounded Kendrick right out of the box.

The D-Backs led off their first inning with two consecutive doubles to take a 1-0 lead. To be fair, Juan Pierre just missed catching Gerardo Parra’s liner to left field, but Aaron Hill just missed hitting a home run. His drive down the left-field line was initially ruled a homer, but was overturned when replay showed the ball hit approximately a foot under the top of the wall.

Kendrick allowed three additional hits after that, along with hitting a batter and walking another. When the smoke cleared, the Phillies were down, 4-0. Had Lyle Overbay not been thrown out (by a mile) at home plate, the D-Backs would’ve put up a five-spot.

You can view the carnage here.

Kendrick lasted two more innings, giving up another three runs, one of which was Justin Upton’s first homer of the season. But a three-inning outing in which he was rocked for seven runs and 11 hits is most certainly not what the Phillies needed from a replacement starting pitcher. Especially when their offense is having trouble producing runs. 

Get well soon, Lee. The Phillies might not be able to afford starting Kendrick many more times.

 

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Will Philadelphia Phillies Let Cole Hamels Walk to Bring in More Offense?

While Cliff Lee is attracting most of the headlines for the Philadelphia Phillies after pitching 10 shutout innings Wednesday night against the San Francisco Giants, his performance is obscuring the fact that the Phillies lineup provided in an 11-inning, 1-0 loss.

The Phillies managed only four hits in those 11 innings, with Juan Pierre, Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins and Laynce Nix each batting 0-for-4. 

Also notable for his absence was third baseman Placido Polanco, who sat out because “he needs a blow,” according to manager Charlie Manuel. Polanco was hit on the left elbow by a pitch in Tuesday night’s game, but it was apparently his ineffectiveness, rather than any sort of injury, that scratched him from Wednesday’s lineup. 

The Phillies were already playing short-handed, with injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard keeping them out indefinitely. Polanco wasn’t going to supply much power in their absence, but he’s always been a consistent, dependable hitter.

However, he’s been so bad in his first 11 games (batting .179/.220/.205) that some, such as Hardball Talk’s Matthew Pouliot, are wondering if he might actually be finished as a player. Six strikeouts in 41 plate appearances from a contact hitter might indicate lost bat speed.

The issues with the lineup may be too numerous and serious to fully address this season, unfortunately. The Phillies really just have to cross their fingers, hope that Utley and Howard recover, hope that Polanco can turn himself around and possibly explore the trade market for some help. 

But what about next year? Does general manager Ruben Amaro have to address his lineup and make sure his offense isn’t so lacking coming into the season? 

Can he do that without sacrificing whatever money they originally planned to pay Cole Hamels? That’s a question Casey Feeney asks at CSNPhilly.com. 

The Phillies and Hamels are at a standstill in contract negotiations. Toward the end of spring training, it appeared as if the two sides might be close to agreeing on a new deal. But the last word, courtesy of CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman, is that the team hasn’t made an effort to restart those talks. 

Matt Cain’s new $127.5 million contract with the Giants changed everything. Hamels was probably already looking for $20 million per season, and Amaro has said he believes the Phillies can afford another pitcher at that price to go with Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee.

But is Hamels now looking for something more like $25 million per year? Left-handers draw more than righties on the market, given their rarity. And as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki points out, Hamels’s career numbers are better than Cain’s across the board. 

This might be scaring off the Phillies, as well as emboldening Hamels to test the open market for the biggest free agent payday. 

Losing Hamels would obviously leave a huge void in the Phillies’ starting rotation. But can Amaro justify paying that much money to a pitcher when it could be used to patch up holes in the everyday lineup? 

Shane Victorino’s contract is also up after this season, and he’ll certainly be seeking a raise over his current $9.5 million salary. Losing him would create a much bigger problem for the Phillies. 

Is the team really going to stick with a combination of John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix and Juan Pierre in left field? Or should Amaro pursue an upgrade like the Dodgers‘ Andre Ethier? 

What about third base? If Polanco is close to done, the Phillies can buy out his $5.5 million option for next year with a $1 million payout. And what if the Mets decide not to sign David Wright to a contract extension or pick up his $16 million option? Is that a player the Phillies absolutely have to go after in free agency? 

What if the Phillies could trade for the Padres‘ Chase Headley? He has one more arbitration year after this season. Wouldn’t Headley have to be signed to a contract extension to make such a deal worthwhile? 

Can Amaro make any of those moves if he pays Hamels $25 million per year, perhaps under a six-year, $150 million contract?

It doesn’t seem likely. And as the Phillies’ offense continues to string zeroes on ballpark scoreboards throughout the majors, this is surely a dilemma Amaro and the rest of the Phillies’ front office is agonizing over. 

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