Why Roy Halladay Should Be NL CY Young Winner Part 2

So I looked over some stats and decided people need to be told the whole story. There are a few other contenders for the NL CY Young Award. I originally did not want to analyze them but then I thought why not compare him to other players that people think are better? Halladay after all is the best pitcher in baseball.

So the first one I do is Josh Johnson. Low ERA 1.62. Minuscule ERA, I am amazed he has kept it up as long as he has. He has 128 innings pitched, an outstanding 130 strikeouts with only 28 walks. He has one complete game and no shutouts. So why him?

The key thing to note when comparing him to Halladay is that there is a significant difference in ERA so the fact that he has the same amount of wins should be attributed to run support. The fact he has less losses should be attributed to his amazingly low ERA.

The fact is on average he pitches one less inning than Halladay. If when it comes to wins they get the same amount, more wins should be attributed to Halladay simply because he works longer. Then there is the fact that Halladay has gotten complete games almost every other time he goes out there, has a perfect game and a few shutouts.

To counter that Johnson has an ERA of more than 0.5 less than Halladay in a more hitter friendly park. You would expect with such a minuscule ERA he has very little run support but he gets 4.83 runs per game in support versus Halladay’s 3.32. So he gets 1.5 runs per game more which is odd until you realize his team completely demolishes teams one day and doesn’t do much the next.

I still like the fact that Johnson has 20 innings less pitched than Halladay along with so many complete games. If Johnson pitched that much he would have been exhausted earlier and would not have these numbers. Furthermore him having less losses boils down to run support, not much more. Also Johnson gets a lot of innings but needs good relievers to finish the job for him, Halladay normally does it all himself.

Now Wainwright is a real threat. He is much closer to Halladay’s stats than Johnson. Johnson’s ERA is the thing that makes people think he’s way better but I assure you the real threat is Wainwright and Jimenez. Wainwright has only pitched six innings less than Halladay, and has two more strikeouts. 

His ERA is 2.02 and that means he is about 0.17 below Halladay which is outstanding. I love it personally. The only problem is lack of complete games (with only 4) and only one shutout. However this is not so much a weakness, it just shows he’s more consistent. Wainwright gets about seven and one third of an inning every time he goes on the mound (approximately) whereas Halladay will get one inning more because he has lots of complete games. 

Wainwright also got more run support at 5.03 runs per game which really helps you win. If Halladay gets that kind of run support (not unreasonable to expect that from the Phillies offense) then he would have way more wins. 

The key to remember is who would you rather have if you need to win a game? I would rather have Halladay because he will more often than not go the distance. There’s a reason he is always in CY Young voting, he is that good.

Most people argue it’s a 4 man race. I say drop Johnson from that race, he’s a great pitcher, I’m taking nothing away from him but the NL has had so many star pitchers this year. It’s like the Yankees WS win made pitching popular again. 

 

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Why Roy Halladay Should Be NL CY Young Winner

I admit, I am a Toronto Blue Jays fan, that’s why you’ll notice that the picture of Halladay is in a Blue Jays uniform rather than the Phillies uniform. I grew up watching him play and truly loved watching the best pitcher in baseball completely shut down opposing offenses. As such, my opinion is a bit biased so I tried to stick to the numbers only when deciding that Halladay deserves the NL Cy Young.

First, realize this is July 17, 2010 and this article is not going to take into account any games played on the 17th. Instead I am going to just analyze the numbers up until now and show you why I think Halladay deserves to win. 

Clearly the only real competition Halladay has is Ubaldo Jimenez—you know the guy who is 15-1 and the ace of the Colorado Rockies? He has an ERA of 2.20, a WHIP of 1.05, 113 strikeouts and 46 walks, and he’s already pitched 127 innings!

He also has three complete games, including two shutouts  I also should point out that he plays in Coors Field, as such his numbers would be even lower if he played in a regular park. As such his numbers are definitely screaming CY Young, however the NL has Roy Halladay.

Roy Halladay has a record only of 10-7. That sounds terrible but he has already pitched 148 innings! He leads the league in innings which is all the more impressive because he plays in the NL (no DH). He has an ERA of 2.19, a WHIP of 1.05, 128 strikeouts, and only 19 walks!

To top it all off, he has already gotten seven complete games, including threes shutouts and a perfect game! Absolutely phenomenal stats, and would have definitely won the CY Young if Jimenez did not choose this year to crank it up a notch. 

So with all these stats what makes Halladay better? Jimenez has slightly worse ERA, same WHIP, and not too far off on strikeouts, though way off on walks. However, Halladay has pitched a total of 21 more innings. The law in economics is called diminishing marginal performance, in this case.

What that means is as he plays more innings his performance should decline, but look the numbers are about the same—ERA, WHIP, predictably he’s better on strikeouts, but the walks are so few. This takes out the Coors Field being a hitters’ park variable.

Then we come to the true skill of Roy Halladay, a man who can give your bullpen a day off. He has seven complete games already, and it’s just barely passed the halfway mark of the season, at this pace he will get 12 complete games!

Compare that with Jimenez’s three and you see why Halladay is so dominant. It gets better though he already has three shutouts and one of them was a perfect game! Just tell me why you would not pick him for CY Young this year.

I can think of only one reason, his 10-7 record. I agree with the saying “you play to win the game” and if you don’t win, the stats should not justify anything. However, in the case of Halladay we may have to look a bit beyond considering his stats are so outstanding, right on par with Jimenez. 

However, here’s another reason: although the Phillies have only scored nine runs less than the Rockies for the entire season, they give Roy Halladay a paltry 3.32 runs of support per game, whereas the Rockies give Jimenez an outstanding 5.33 runs of support per game.

That’s quite a differential in run support considering the Phillies have scored only nine runs less the entire year. You have to admit it looks like their offense gets lazy when Halladay gets out there, whereas almost any pitcher can win a lot with that kind of run support. For that reason I say the wins mean almost nothing. 

Please note I calculated run support by runs they scored after Halladay or Jimenez may have left the game because that gives them a chance for a no decision. So who is the better pitcher?

A lot of people should run away with it. I am not going to say Halladay should run away with it, but he does deserve more consideration than people give him. I think in the end, he will get the nod simply because as the season wears on the Doc gets better, while other pitchers start tiring out. However, if it were handed out today I would definitely give it to the Doctor. 

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