Philadelphia Phillies: Roy Oswalt to Return Soon, Who Will Go?
Good news out of Lehigh Valley.
Roy Oswalt feels good and is ready to return to Philadelphia for the final stretch of the season. Having been sidelined since late June with bulging disks in his back, Oswalt now says his velocity is up and there is no more pain his back.
After going six strong innings, Oswalt wrapped up his rehab assignment and is ready to rejoin the team for their west coast trip to San Francisco. Oswalt’s schedule has him due to start Saturday against the Giants. However, that is also the day Cole Hamels is next slated to start.
Pitching coach Rich Dubee has not committed to either pitcher yet but has hinted that Oswalt may get the nod to afford Hamels an extra day of rest.
While this is good news for the Phils, it does leave one lingering question—who do they send down to make room for Oswalt?
This is a list of the top candidates.
MLB Trade Rumors: Philadelphia Phillies in Serious Talks for Melky Cabrera
For the last few months, the narrative in Philadelphia has been that the Phillies need to pick up a right-handed bat, specifically one that plays corner outfield.
Yet never has the name Melky Cabrera been mentioned. Instead, the choice du jour has primarily been Hunter Pence. The thoughts are he is only 28 years old and that he is the right-handed power bat needed to protect Ryan Howard. He is a strong defensive corner outfielder and is under club control for two more years, so he can replace Raul Ibanez next season.
Recently, though, the thought process shifted to consider the acquisition of New York Mets All-Star Carlos Beltran. Beltran is a switch hitter, so he fits the tab for right-handed power. However, at 34 he is older and only a rental as his contract expires after the season.
The upside is that he should cost less to acquire and would be exactly the type of hitter to protect Howard that fans feel the Phils are missing. Furthermore, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has reportedly been aggressively pursuing Beltran.
If the past is any indication, what Amaro wants, Amaro gets.
So here comes the curveball.
Apparently, Amaro and the Kansas City Royals have exchanged names and are in serious talks about a deal involving Melky Cabrera. Now Melky doesn’t exactly appear to be an imposing name to any Phils fan who watched him suffer through a rough season on the Atlanta Braves last year.
But Melky has bounced back strongly this year, is a switch hitter and has defensive flexibility. Melky would likely come much cheaper than either of the other two and would still be under contract with the Phillies next season for about a million dollars, so he provides financial flexibility as well.
So the question remains, what is the best option for the Fightins? Should they get the rental in Beltran, pay more to get a solid corner outfielder in Pence for a few years or go in the bargain bin and get a solid but unspectacular Melky? A closer look at their season numbers should help provide some clarity.
*sOPS+ is the batter’s OPS relative to the league average for that split. Anything over 100 is above average, anything below 100 is below average, and 100 is exactly average.
Carlos Beltran
| Split | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | sOPS+* | BABIP |
| vs RHP | .319 | .427 | .525 | .952 | 157 | .354 |
| vs LHP | .232 | .296 | .547 | .839 | 122 | .206 |
Hunter Pence
| Split | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | sOPS+ | BABIP |
| vs RHP | .329 | .372 | .502 | .873 | 156 | .408 |
| vs LHP | .275 | .330 | .429 | .759 | 104 | .299 |
Melky Cabrera
| Split | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | sOPS+ | BABIP |
| vs RHP | .296 | .336 | .477 | .812 | 118 | .324 |
| vs LHP | .290 | .321 | .412 | .734 | 98 | .313 |
After looking at the numbers, the answer seems pretty clear. If the Phils are looking for the best player to get right now, then Carlos Beltran is clearly the answer. He provides the most value against southpaws and is hitting right-handers just as well as Pence.
In fact, he can even be expected to improve some against lefties as he is suffering from a little bit of tough luck right now on balls in play.
The numbers are not as kind to Hunter Pence. It shows he has been incredibly lucky against righties as he is hitting over .400 when putting the ball in play. That simply is not something he can sustain, no matter how well he keeps making contact. Sooner or later, the ball will start finding gloves.
But more concerning is that he does not appear to be the right-handed power bat everyone thinks he is. He is just about an average hitter when it comes to facing portsiders. Most of his damage is against righties. That simply will not be a deterrent for teams bringing in a lefty specialist late in games. The Phillies will be paying for a right-handed bat who can mash lefties and end up with only an average hitter in those situations.
Melky, on the other hand, is putting up numbers very similar to Pence against lefties. He too is just about league average. Against righties, while not as dominant as Beltran and Pence, he has been a very good bat nonetheless.
He is capable of playing all the outfield positions and is a very experienced postseason veteran. While he may feel like he has been around forever, Melky is only 26 years old and may be just hitting full stride as a ballplayer.
So this is the decision the Phillies face.
Get the best player available but risk trading prospects to your division rival, get Pence who is a good player but will likely cost the most in both money and prospects or get the solid Melky Cabrera who, in costing the least of the trio to acquire, will save the farm system while providing nearly identical production to Pence against southpaws.
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com
Philadelphia Phillies: The Curious Case of Joe Savery
The Philadelphia Phillies have just promoted Joe Savery to Lehigh Valley for the second time in his career. Ordinarily, people do not applaud a former first-round pick for making it to Triple-A. Then again, there is nothing ordinary about Joe Savery. He is trying to achieve something very few have ever done—reach the Major Leagues as both a hitter and pitcher.
During his five years in the organization Savery has gone from highly touted pitcher to complete bust to potentially serviceable bat and now hybrid reliever/pinch hitter. In many ways, it has been a long, strange journey for the former top prospect. That journey is not over yet, as he has still yet to attain his ultimate goal—a trip to Philadelphia. Even at the current incomplete juncture, this is still a story worth recounting.
It began in 2007 when the Philadelphia Phillies selected All-American Joe Savery out of Rice University with their first-round selection in the MLB draft. Despite still having a year of college eligibility, Savery signed with the Phillies for $1.3 million. At the time, the pick was considered risky but potentially a steal. This is because Savery was about a year removed from arm surgery and had not quite returned to his National Freshman of the Year form. Prior to the injury, the left-hander was viewed as one of the top pitchers in his draft class.
Unlike many first-rounders, Savery signed right away and played well the rest of the summer in the New York-Penn League. The following season, he was assigned to play High-A Ball in Clearwater. Over the course of the next few years, Savery would perform at very mediocre levels. However, it was always just well enough to earn promotions to the next level.
This all culminated in 2010 in Triple-A Lehigh Valley, where it became abundantly clear that Savery’s arm would never return to its past form, and that he simply did not have the stuff to get more advanced hitters out. Savery now seemed destined to be forever lumped in as another Phillies draft bust along with the likes of Reggie Taylor, Brad Brink and Jeff Jackson.
Then, remembering Savery’s stellar college bat or perhaps even just finding the Phillies’ scouting report on him from his high school years, the Iron Pigs decided to hand him a bat. After all, at this point he was a sunken cost for the organization, so why not see if he could still hit?
And hit he did. Despite a four-year layoff from being a regular hitter, Savery managed to post very respectable numbers in Triple-A. He performed well enough that the Phils decided he was worth fully re-exploring as a bat. So at the start of the 2011 season, he was sent back to High-A ball in Clearwater where he would get the opportunity to show off his bat as an everyday first baseman.
In Clearwater, Savery started out on fire. He was hitting pitching with such ease it seemed he was making a mockery off the league. Eventually he would cool off, but not before he ultimately earned a promotion to Double-A.
At this point, there was a lot of chatter about Savery. There were questions whether he could continue to hit at higher levels in the system. People wondered if he would be capable of playing positions other than first base, as would be necessary with Ryan Howard manning the first base position in Philadelphia. All in all, he had gotten a lot of people to take notice of him and garnered some excitement, as people were enjoying his career rejuvenation.
Then something funny happened. Reading started using him as both a hitter and a reliever. Assistant General Manager Chuck Lamar said this was the Phillies’ plan all year, to get him re-acclimated to hitting and then ease him back into a bullpen role as well. Lamar said the goal was to get Savery in the game twice a week as a reliever and let him DH the remaining the games.
Savery responded with flying colors. In fact, one could say he responded better than anyone could have hoped. The same pitcher who had just bombed out of Triple-A a year early with a fastball in the mid-80’s was now bringing the heat in the low to mid-90’s. The same guy who struggled to get batters out had now become dominant on the hill. Suddenly, Savery appeared to have a future on the mound again.
So that brings us to where Savery currently stands, back in Triple-A. He recently made his 2011 pitching debut for Lehigh Valley where he went two innings, allowing one hit and striking out one as well. This will be the real test for Savery. Can he continue to strike out batters at a high rate like he did in Reading? Can he continue to limit his walks and hits? If so, he may have a future in the Major Leagues as a lefty specialist.
But do not forget his bat. Savery has a career .288 batting average and .738 OPS in the minors. While he has dabbled at first base and left field, he is very much a man without a position. Yet if he can continue to swing the stick like that, he may have a future as a pinch hitter.
Imagine what Charlie Manuel could do with a reliever/pinch hitter. Savery could pinch hit and then stay in the game to pitch. Or he could pitch, stay in to hit for himself and then be lifted for a new pitcher. It would be like adding an extra pinch hitter to the bench. The Phillies could even bring him in for a lefty batter, move him to left field for a right-handed batter and then bring him back to the mound to face another lefty. However unlikely, that move is one of many possibilities the Phillies are on the precipice of should Savery make it to the show.
These next few months could make or break Savery’s Phillies career because Lehigh Valley is now all that stands between him and Philadelphia. While he may never live up to the potential that got him selected in the first round, he has come a long way. Teams generally hope to get more than just a pinch hitter or a left-handed specialist out of a top draft pick, but that is where Savery currently stands.
Then again, almost nobody has ever tried to make it to the Majors as a hitter and a pitcher simultaneously. Rick Ankiel made it separately as a pitcher and later as hitter. Brooks Kieschnick made it doing both roles; however, he made it as a hitter and only later added pitching to his arsenal to stay in the Majors.
Savery is looking to do both at the same time in order to debut in the majors. I, for one, am rooting for him to make it.
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com
Philadelphia Phillies: Why They Could Get Even Better in the Second Half
Going into the final weekend of the first half of the season, the Phils hold the best record in baseball and a four game division lead. They have built this record largely on the accomplishments of their lauded pitching staff, with the offense chipping in just enough.
Despite holding the best record in baseball by a healthy margin, there are some out there who believe the Fightins can get even better in the second half. Count manager Charlie Manuel in with that crowd. There have been no shortage of injuries and slumps that could have derailed this team along the way. In many ways this team has overcome a lot of to achieve this record.
Here is a look at five things the Phillies can reasonably expect to improve in the second half as they continue their march towards 100 wins.
Philadelphia Phillies Trade Speculation: Cost-Effective Roy Oswalt Replacements
What has long been speculated was confirmed last night in St. Louis: Roy Oswalt had been playing injured. Since returning from the disabled list, the normally dominant Oswalt had been very shaky, watching his ERA steadily rise while his strikeouts were at career-low levels. Frankly, he was pitching like a Kyle Kendrick clone. Now he finds himself on the DL again.
With the soon-to-be 34-year-old facing the potential end to his season, it’s time for the Phillies to mull the options on how to best replace him. For the time being, the rotation will consist of Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick in the back end. Joe Blanton may return from the DL at some point in the future to help stabilize the rotation, but that is off in the distance as he has yet to start throwing.
The Phillies face more problems than just trying replace an ace in the rotation. They face financial restraints as well. With a payroll already over $170 million, the Phillies are at the threshold of the luxury tax and ownership seems very reluctant to add significant salaries.
Philadelphia Phillies: Which Prospect Can Be the Next Michael Stutes?
Entering the spring training, the Phillies bullpen looked to be mostly in place. Brad Lidge was expected to close with Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras as his top set up men.
Kyle Kendrick would fill the long man role while J.C. Romero and presumably Antonio Bastardo would be the lefties. There was one opening which ultimately was filled by 2010 Rule 5 draftee David Herndon.
However an onslaught of injuries opened the door for a few minor league arms and no one took better advantage than Michael Stutes. He has been nothing short of sensational thus far. His strikeout stuff has translated very well to the MLB level as he has struck out 8.7 batters per nine IP. While his 5.6 walks per nine IP is cause for concern he has been able to maintain a 2.38 ERA nonetheless.
Stutes was not the only reliever waiting in the wings though. The Phillies farm system has been doing a very good job developing young impact relievers over the last few years. In the next year or so many of them will be MLB ready. Here are some names to look out for.
Ryan Howard: Same as He Ever Was or Is the Philadelphia Phillie in Decline?
Is Ryan Howard in decline? A lot of people would suggest that he is not the player that he once was. In some ways I’ll agree with that.
He definitely is not performing to the level he did in 2006—his MVP year—and likely never will. However, I would suggest a large part of that is teams stealing hits from him by putting on the shift and also realizing they don’t have to intentionally walk him.
One of the big complaints though is Howard himself.
His on-base percentage has continued to drop as have his power numbers. He is only on pace for 35 home runs this season and he is well below his career .371 OBP and .567 SLG marks.
However is it fair to compare Howard’s current numbers to his career averages?
After all, he is famously a second half of the season player, so perhaps he could be expected to experience an uptake in numbers going forward. He has played in 74 games this year so in order to better judge his season I have taken his first 74 games worth of stats from each season starting with 2007 to see how they compare.
*The numbers in italics were final stats at the end of the season.
’07: 330 PA, .258 avg, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 103 K, 54 BB (22 IBB), .379 OBP, .557 SLG, .936 OPS
—Final: 648 PA, .268 avg, 47 HR, 136 RBI, 199 K, 107 BB, .392 OBP, .584 SLG, .976 OPS
’08: 320 PA, .221 avg, 19 HR, 63 RBI, 102 K, 39 BB (8 IBB), .319 OBP, .486 SLG, .804 OPS
—Final: 700 PA, .251 avg, 48 HR, 146 RBI, 199 K, 81 BB, .339 OBP, .543 SLG, .881 OPS
’09: 332 PA, .256 avg, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 93 K, 30 BB (2 IBB), .328 OBP, .535 SLG, .864 OPS
—Final: 703 PA, .279 avg, 45 HR, 141 RBI, 186 K, 75 BB, .360 OBP, .571 SLG, .931 OPS
’10: 321 PA, .296 avg, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 74 K, 24 BB (5 IBB), .352 OBP, .517 SLG, .869 OPS
—Final: 620 PA, .276 avg, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 157 K, 59 BB, .353 OBP, .505 SLG, .859 OPS
’11: 325 PA, .261 avg, 16 HR, 61 RBI, 84 K, 38 BB (7 IBB), .357 OBP, .504 SLG, .861 OPS
So the first thing that jumps out to me is the walks. They have nosedived since 2007. However, other than 2010 that does not indicate a significant change in plate discipline.
He was walked intentionally 22 times in 2007. So his non-intentional total was only 32 walks which is in line with the last few years. Likewise, this year he received seven intentional free passes so that would be 31 walks non-intentionally. This is a huge reason for the drop in his OBP.
To be honest, what I see here actually makes me feel optimistic.
His RBI’s are right in line with his best seasons despite nearly two months of a makeshift top of the lineup in front of him. His HRs are a bit low but still competitive. His strikeouts are down and his walks are normal. His slugging is middle of the road for this span. His OBP is his second highest in that span. His OPS basically middle of the road as well.
Given that Howard is notoriously a second half of the season player, we can hopefully expect a generous boost in line with all those other seasons. If that happens, those numbers will carry him to what will seem like a typical Ryan Howard year at season’s end.
However he is walking a tight rope. One of these years he’ll no longer be able to turn on the afterburners for the second half of the season. There were signs of that in 2010; however, he also spent the last two months of the season split between the DL and playing through a power sapping ankle injury so I give him the benefit of the doubt there.
If the past is any indication, Phillies fans should sit back and enjoy the ensuing fireworks because Ryan Howard is about to hit his groove.
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com