2011 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

Yes, I know it is way too early for a 2011 MLB season preview.

The Phillies are making a colossal playoff push and are looking to become the first National League team since the St. Louis Cardinals of the early 1940s to reach the World Series three consecutive years.

With this in mind, I still couldn’t wait. So, here, sports fans, is your extremely premature Philadelphia Phillies preview for the 2011 season. 

The Starting Rotation

1. Roy Halladay – The ace. The foremost no-brainer in this Phillies rotation. Halladay is a viable candidate for the 2010 Cy Young Award, sporting a solid 16-9 record and a cozy 2.22 ERA through August 29. Luckily for the Phils, Halladay is inked through the 2013 season.

Bad news, however, as the Phils’ faithful will have to watch pitching phenom Kyle Drabek grow into a star for the Torono Blue Jays and stand by as the New York Yankees try to sign Cliff Lee for a ridiculous contract this offseason. But hey, we got our ace, and that’s a positive.  

2. Roy Oswalt – This season’s key trade deadline pickup, the other Roy has been pretty darn good in the red pinstripes, throwing out a 3-1 record with a dominant 2.18 earned run average and a stable 0.97 WHIP.

3. Cole Hamels – Same old story for the golden lefty. Extremely poor run support and bad luck have sparked criticism and doubt over Hamels’ performance. However, Hamels has possibly been the Phillies’ most consistent starter over this season. Although his record is 8-10, he has a 3.31 ERA and has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts. This is one player that is drastically underrated and is a key reason for the success of the Broad Street Bombers.

4. Joe Blanton – Possibly the one error in Ruben Amaro’s tenure as GM has been the contract extension for Blanton. Don’t get me wrong, Blanton was an essential pickup for the magical run of 2008. However, $10.5 million per year is a lot for an end of the rotation guy, even if he has been mediocre recently.

5. Kyle Kendrick – Oh, how I wish to have typed Jaime Moyer’s name into this rotation. Sorry, it just doesn’t work. Kendrick is up for arbitration come 2011 and will almost definitely get it, meaning that Moyer’s tenure in Philly has come to a close. We’ll miss you, bud.

That’s enough Moyer love. Kendrick has been the ideal fifth starter this year, flashing signs of his potential while staying somewhat consistent over the 2010 season. He should flourish next year in low-pressure situations as an above average number five starter.

Starting Lineup

First Base – Ryan Howard

The Big Piece. Howard is the key component to this potent offense. He provides power, stability, and swagger. And, lately, Howard has shown his angry side, going afternoon a third base umpire this past week. Next year should be classic Howard with colossal homers, clunky triples, and an innumerable amount of backward and frontward K’s.

The scariest thought about Howard’s future, is the fact that his contact is up after next season. Time to start the negotiations Amaro.

Second Base – Chase Utley

Utley, you are the man! Utley has been the picture of consistency and cool while manning second base for the Phillies. Signed through the 2013 season, Utley figures to keep producing for several years to come and provide stellar defense.

Shortstop – Jimmy Rollins

J-Roll has been the spark plug for many seasons for the Fightins, and that streak shouldn’t stop anytime soon. Rolling is hitting just .248 this season, but he has fought through several injuries, playing in just 69 games. Rollins is inked through just the 2011 campaign, so hopefully this winter will see the extension of him so that it doesn’t distract from his comeback campaign of 2011.

Third Base – Placido Polanco

Unsung heroes. Every team has it’s fair share. Philadelphia’s 2010 unsung hero is Polanco. He is the only Philadelpha starter who is batting over .300. In addition, third base has been the place where screaming grounders go to die at Citizens Bank Park.

Honestly, it will be an absolute travesty if Polanco does not win a Gold Glove Award for his work in 2010. Signed through 2013, Polanco should earn his spot in the hearts of Philly fans over the next few years.

Left Field – Raul Ibanez

At the 2010 All-Star break, analysts all over the Philadelphia sports scene were calling for Ibanez’s head, declaring him done. Ibanez has absolutely proved them wrong. He has gone on a tear these past few weeks, raising his home batting average to .280 over this last homestand. 

Sure, you would guess that Ibanez’s production will decrease rapidly in the coming season. However, I will not quit on my man and I think that he will recharge this offseason and build on his second half success.

Center Field – Shane Victorino

The Flyin’ Hawaiian has been suprisingly below what we expected coming into this summer, batting just .251 with 15 dingers through August 29. We can only hope that Victorino comes back next season and produces like we know he can. He will only be 30 going into next season, so you have to think that he can have a solid rebound campaign in 2011.

Right Field – Domonic Brown

With each game that goes by, it seems more and more probable that the Phils and Jayson Werth are doomed to part this winter. It shouldn’t be a huge problem, however, as Downtown Domonic Brown seems poised and ready to jump in and take over. Hitting just .224 this year, there seems to be vast room for improvement, which is a good sign for a player with so much natural talent. Move over Werth, this kid will be ready come 2011.

Catcher – Carlos Ruiz

Choooooooooch! Ruiz falls into that Polanco, unsung hero mold for the Phils. Ruiz has been Philadelphia’s most clutch hitter in 2010. Chooch is signed through 2013, but I suspect that catching duties may fall into a platoon between Chooch and Brian Schneider or another player in the coming seasons, as Ruiz is bound to break down one of these days. 

The Pen

A scary concept: Brad Lidge is signed for another two seasons and will most likely fall right back into the closer’s role in 2011. I know, it’s frightening. However, there is hope and a promising future for the bullpen. J.C. Romero and Ryan Madson will each reprise their roles as consistent setup men next summer, as both are inked through 2011. Meanwhile, closer in waiting Drew Carpenter will hope to make a name for himself as a middle reliever. Things at the back end of the bullpen may seem bleak now, but there is plenty of reason for hope. 

My Predictions

Honestly, I think it should be another very solid year for the Philadelphia in 2011. The rotation and batting lineup both look incredibly impressive. Plus, with the Mets, Marlins, and Nats looking pretty mediocre going into the offseason, it will most likely be another two-team race between the Phils and Braves. With that said, Atlanta is clearly the young, up-and-coming squad of the NL East, and it should be a great, season-long bout.

 

 

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Justin Duchscherer: The Missing Piece To The Phillies’ Puzzle?

This past season, Philadelphia almost won a second consecutive World Series title. Almost.

The Phillies were a fantastic, diverse team. They had their sluggers, like Ryan James Howard, Rauuuuul, and Chase. They had their fair share of wheels, with J-Roll lighting up the base paths for 31 steals and a success rate of 80 percent.

Pitching wasn’t exactly their strength, but their starters did a pretty good job, while the bullpen did their nightly job of screwing Philadelphia over. Last but certainly not least, they had good old Charlie. Charlie Manuel did a superb job of controlling this team, and, as thanks, Philadelphia Magazine named him the sixth most powerful man in the city.

So, the question is, where does this team go now? Who will lead them back to glory?

This offseason, Phillies analysis has been entranced in the open position at the hot corner. Everyone seems to be caught up in the debate of whether the Phils should sign Beltre, Figgins, or DeRosa. Even I found myself salivating over the thought of Figgy in red pinstripes or the Penn grad coming home.

However, as I sat there arguing with myself about this topic, I looked back at this season and I remembered the games that I had watched or attended when the pitchers completely broke down.

So, I did a little research, and I found out that the Phils starting pitchers combined for only 83 quality starts through the entire regular season. Thus, I believe that I have answered my own question. The missing piece to this puzzle is remarkably simple. The way for this team to be unstoppable is to sign one more high-quality, high-consistency starter. 

In my eyes, the offseason is about two things: improving you team and saving money wherever possible.

With those two steps in mind, Ruben Amaro Jr. could go in a number of different pitching directions this winter. He could invest in a major arm, such as Lackey, Harden, or maybe the Cuban kid Chapman. Another plausible choice would be to make a big trade for names like Halladay or maybe even “King” Felix Hernandez. 

On second thought, it would make much, much more sense to take the frugal approach and sign a low-risk, high-upside guy like Andy Pettitte or Jarrod Washburn. All of these obvious choices are out there.

There is one player, however, that is causing some fans, like myself, to scratch their heads.

His name is Justin Duchscherer, also known around the baseball community as “The Duke”.

The Duke was just coming out rehab from elbow surgery when he aggressively sought help for his clinical depression. In fact, he actually put his baseball career on hold while dealing with this issue. Upon hearing this, I was shocked that someone would stop playing professional baseball while healthy. To me, it seemed unreal.

However, the truth is that many people, even athletes struggle with depression.

Just last season, a handful of players were diagnosed for anxiety-related problems. Amazingly, these players are big names around baseball, including Joey Votto, Dontrelle Willis, and even your 2009 Cy Young Award Winner, Zack Greinke.

In 2008, The Duke went 10-8 with a 2.54 earned run average and an All-Star Game invitation. In 2009 he did not step foot on a MLB diamond during a game because of elbow surgery and his depression. Justin was healthy the entire second half, but his anxiety obviously won that battle. 

The point that I am trying to emphasize is that “The Duke” is fully capable of returning to All-Star status. Plus, with not having thrown a pitch in an actual game through all of 2009, he will be unbelievably inexpensive. Win, Win.

Coming back to the Phillies, they became increasingly southpaw-heavy as the season wore on. Even after the signing of Pedro Martinez, the righty-lefty split was still 3-2. Now, Myers is gone, Pedro’s return is questionable, and Moyer is sitting in a Philadelphia hospital, struggling to stay active much less pitch in the major leagues.

So, that leaves them with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ, and Joe Blanton. That is a 3-1 righty to lefty ratio! 

The obvious gap for this team is a starting pitcher, with the main absence being a strong righty. With third base still being without an occupant, it is expected that big money will be thrown that direction.

Thus, the task is as follows: Sign a right-handed pitcher for as little money as possible. Now, you tell me. Who fits that mold better than Justin “The Duke” Duchscherer?

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