Philadelphia Phillies: Who Is Your Center Fielder? B.J. Upton or Michael Bourn?

With the 2012 offseason only a week or so away, Ruben Amaro Jr. and his staff will be looking to make a big offseason splash through free agency. Their number one priority being a top-tier center fielder.

When the Phillies shipped Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence out of town this past July, they did so to free up some money to rebuild their outfield for 2013 with players who display more consistency. After leaving Philadelphia, Victorino hit .245 and Pence hit .219—numbers that are anything but consistent.  

With center field being the Phillies’ biggest concern, they have their eyes set on the two of the most prized players at the position: former Phillie Michael Bourn and free-agent-to-be B.J. Upton. 

Bourn is a player who can bring excitement to the top of a batting order and also plays exceptional defense. He won Gold Glove awards in 2009 and 2010. If acquired, Charlie Manuel’s love affair with Jimmy Rollins batting leadoff will hopefully come to an end.

Bourn had a 2012 season that was mostly consistent with all of his career offensive numbers. He hit .274 while scoring 96 runs and led the NL in stolen bases with 42. He also finished the season seventh in walks with 70.

There are two major concerns with the Phillies acquiring Bourn. One being his amount of strikeouts.

Bourn struck out a career-high 155 times in 2012—not really an admirable quality for a leadoff hitter. However, his amount of walks somewhat balanced out his on-base percentage (.348).

The other concern is the amount of dollars Bourn is going to cost on the open market. Super agent Scott Boras represents Bourn and has a reputation for relentlessly pursuing top dollar for all of his clients. He and Ruben Amaro also don’t have the best history since the Ryan Madson deal blew up last offseason.

Bourn will turn 30 in December, and the Phillies don’t want to have another long contract with an aging player attached to it added to their ever-expanding payroll. The Phillies will seek a four- to five-year deal for Bourn, from anywhere between $10 and $15 million. 

Another top choice to man the center of the Phillies’ outfield in 2013 is 28-year-old former Tampa Bay Ray, B.J. Upton.

The two major differences between Upton and Bourn are Upton’s power and Bourn‘s Gold Glove defense. Both have good speed, strike out a lot and can bring a ton of energy to a team.

Upton hit 28 home runs in 2012 while batting just .242. Upton has not hit over .270 since 2008 and has consistently struck out at or around 160 times a season over his career. He has also never driven in more than 82 runs in a given season.

Could he produce more in Citizens Bank Park? Only time will tell.  

The Phillies are in desperate need of a right-handed power bat, but what they don’t need is another player with a low on-base percentage. Upton’s was only .298 in 2012, after only walking 45 times all season.

The Phillies have a lot of options to weigh. If they want right-handed, long-ball power and RBI production, the choice would be Upton.

If they want Gold Glove-caliber defense, with speed and a true leadoff hitter, the choice is Bourn.

Or they can go a totally different way and try to sign a player such as Angel Pagan.

My choice would be to bring back Michael Bourn and let him set the table for Utley, Howard and hopefully Darin Ruf. The Phillies are most likely going to overpay for him, but at the end of the day he may be the best fit for the Phillies.

He plays Gold Glove-caliber defense, hits for a decent average and is among the league leaders in walks and stolen bases. If the Phillies can help Bourn cut down on his strikeouts, Bourn could be an All-Star in 2013 and hopefully lead the Phillies back to the playoffs. 

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Who Should Be the Philadelphia Phillies’ Opening Day Starter in 2013?

After an inconsistent 2012 season, the Philadelphia Phillies have a ton of questions going into next season. The Phillies have holes at third base, in their bullpen and every single outfield position is still up in the air.

One question most seem to be over looking is what will the order of the Phillies starting pitching rotation look like in 2013. Most importantly, who will be named the starting pitcher on opening day come April 1.

The Phillies will open the season on the road against the Atlanta Braves, another team who will be going through an abundant amount of changes come next season. Outfielder Michael Bourn is a prized free agent and third baseman Chipper Jones will be enjoying retirement.

Do the Phillies continue with their trend of the past few seasons and start Roy Halladay?

Halladay battled injuries since spring training and was never really the dominant force he had been in the past. He only started 25 games in 2012 and threw only 156.1 innings—his lowest totals since 2005. Halladay also posted his highest ERA since 2000 (4.49).

Hopefully a longer offseason will benefit Halladay and he can come back strong in 2013.

Another opening day starter option is Cliff Lee, who despite having a 6-9 record, pitched extremely well in 2012.

Lee finished seventh in the NL in innings pitched (211), fourth in strikeouts (207), ninth in ERA (3.16) and sixth in WHIP (1.11).

If Lee gets the nod, pitching coach Rich Dubee could go with a Lee, Halladay and Hamels rotation to split up his lefties.

The man I believe should start on opening is Cole Hamels, who is fresh off signing his six year, $144 million contract that will keep him in Phillies’ pinstripes until at least 2018. He is also coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Going 17-6 in 215.1 innings pitched with an ERA of 3.05.

Hamels finished in the Top Ten in almost every single NL pitching category. He was fifth in wins (17), sixth in innings pitched (215.1), third in strikeouts (216), eight in ERA (3.05), seventh in WHIP (1.12) and fourth in complete games with two.

Hamels has developed into one of the best left-handed pitchers in the game, and with Roy Halladay entering the tail end of his career, it is time for Hamels to take back the No. 1 spot in the Phillies’ rotation.

The next question Dubee will have to answer is who will man the second spot, Halladay or Lee? A tough decision to say the least, but the Phillies will most likely want to split the two up.

Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick will most likely be the fourth and fifth starters baring an offseason trade. 

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5 Philadelphia Phillies Pitching Prospects Who Could Make Their Debut in 2013

One of the brightest spots of the Philadelphia Phillies‘ organization is the depth of their pitching prospects.

From Low-A Lakewood all the way up to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, the Phillies have several promising arms, both in the bullpen and starters who will contribute to the major league club in the very near future. 

Once the Phillies decided to engage in a fire sale at this past season’s trade deadline, the Phillies wanted to add depth to their organization. They added a starting pitcher who was a former first-round draft pick to a minor league system filled with “Baby Aces.”

The Phillies’ scouting department has done a fantastic job in developing young talent and bringing in players who have the skill set to contribute at the major league level.

Here are five Phillies pitching prospects who have a chance to make their major league debut at some point during the 2013 season. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Can Ryan Howard Return to Form in 2013?

When Ryan Howard ruptured his Achilles tendon on the final swing of the 2011 NLDS, a silence swept across Phillies nation like nothing heard since Joe Carter ripped a 2-2 Mitch Williams slider over the fence in Game 6 of the 1993 World Series.

Rumors swirled that Howard might never return and if he did, he never would be the player he once was.

When Howard returned to Philadelphia in early July of this past season, optimism began to pulse through the veins of Phillies fans. But through 71 games and 260 at-bats, Howard put together the worst campaign of his entire career, resulting in many fans believing that he shouldn’t have returned at all.

Howard finished the season batting just .219 with 14 home runs and 56 RBI. He also struck out a disgraceful 99 times, or 38 percent of his at-bats.

For his career prior to 2012 season, Howard struck out 1207 times in 3794 at-bats, or 31.8 percent. So he increased his strikeout ratio by over six percent in 2012. That may not seem like a drastic increase, but over a 600 at-bat season, that’s 36 more strikeouts.

One of the most fascinating statistics in Howard’s 2012 season was his batting average when actually making contact, or what I call “Batting Average By Contact” (BABC). Howard’s BABC in 2012 was .354. To find this number, I subtracted Howard’s number of strikeouts from his total at-bats, then divided the number of hits by this result.

260 AB – 99 K’s = 161 at-bats. Dividing Howard’s number of hits, 57, by 161 comes to a .354 average.

When Ryan Howard actually made contact in 2012, he batted .354, as compared to his .219 line with his strikeouts included. A remarkable statistic, to say the least, and something positive Phillies fans can draw from an otherwise disappointing 2012 season for Howard.

So what does all this mean?

If Ryan Howard can make more consistent contact, his offensive numbers across the board can dramatically increase. Hits, RBI, home runs, extra-base hits, everything. Which would ultimately lead to more Phillies wins. 

If new Phillies hitting coach Steve Henderson can decrease Ryan Howard’s strikeout rate by, say, 25-30 percent over a full season, Howard’s batting average would return to right around the .260-.270 range.

These statistics are far from an exact science, but from them we can see that when Ryan Howard does make contact, he has the potential to be one of the top hitters in baseball.

If Ryan Howard can decrease his number of strikeouts in 2013, he has the potential to return as one of the most dominant forces in all of baseball.

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2012 MLB Trade Market: Could Dexter Fowler Be the Next Phillies Center Fielder?

The Phillies will be testing the free-agent market hard in 2012 to find their 2013 center fielder.

If they cannot lock down a free-agent signing like Michael Bourn or B.J. Upton, the Phillies may have to look into making a trade to acquire a player to fill the hole Shane Victorino left.

A team that matches up perfectly with what the Phillies need and what they have at their disposal are the Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies are in desperate need of starting pitching depth, and that is exactly what the Phillies have in their farm system.

The Phillies’ minor league affiliates are loaded with pitchers who are only a year or two away from contributing at the major league level.

They also have pitchers on the current major league roster who are now disposable because of that depth. Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick could both be made available if necessary.

Right now, the Phillies have prospects Tyler Cloyd, Jesse Biddle, Brody Colvin, Trevor May, Jonathan Pettibone, Adam Morgan and Ethan Martin who will fill up the rotations for Triple-A Lehigh Valley and Double-A Reading. That is some serious depth.

Biddle, Martin and Pettibone will most likely not be traded. The three of them and Cloyd will battle out for the last two spots in the rotation next season if Worley and Kendrick struggle or find themselves traded.

Kendrick’s value may be the highest it ever will be, so moving him now isn’t the worst idea. Worley will be a much tougher sell since he is coming off an injury that will require offseason surgery. 

If a combination of two of these pitchers and some other player of a lower tier can score a major league talent like Dexter Fowler, the Phillies may want to consider it.

Fowler is coming off his best season as a professional. He hit .300 with 13 HR, 53 RBI and 72 runs scored. One issue with Fowler is that his splits playing at home in Colorado are much better than his splits on the road.

If the Phillies can’t land a big-time free agent, they may have to take a long look at Dexter Fowler and other trade possibilities.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Could Ryne Sandberg Replace Charlie Manuel in 2013?

With the Philadelphia Phillies firing the majority of their current coaching staff only hours after their final game, change has already begun for team who had won five straight NL East titles coming into 2012. 

The Phillies also promoted Triple-A Lehigh Valley manager and Hall of Fame second baseman Ryne Sandberg to coach third base and work as the infield coach. It is clear that the Phillies are leaning toward Sandberg replacing Manuel.

They only question left is, when?  

Charlie Manuel will enter 2013 in the final year of his contract. If Manuel leads the Phillies to another 37-50 record going into the All-Star break, is there much sense in letting him coach the team the rest of the year? Or should the Sandberg era begin early.

For the moment, the answer is hazy at best. Manuel did bring a world championship to Philadelphia, a city that was at the time starving for any type of championship. He is also the winningest coach in franchise history, but the Phillies will not even think about extending Manuel into 2014 if the Phillies do not return to the playoffs in 2013.

My gut says he will finish with the team no matter what happens in 2013. Then again, if owners David Montgomery and Bill Giles dish out a bunch more offseason dollars for a non-playoff team, Ruben Amaro‘s job as GM may come under the microscope. Most people in Amaro‘s position would much rather fire a coach than have the owners reevaluate their job performance.

Ryne Sanberg is clearly the heir apparent and Manuel seems pretty clear on his current situation, but does he want to play the lame-duck manager if things start to go south next season? It’s tough to answer; Charlie is a very prideful man. Does he walk away before he gets fired? Or does he have faith in Ruben Amaro to let him finish what he started and walk away on his own terms.

Amaro is going to have an extremely tough offseason here in 2012, he may have an even tougher one in 2013 with contracts expiring on Roy Halladay, Carlos Ruiz, Laynce Nix, Kyle Kendrick and Chase Utley.  

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Is Kevin Frandsen the Philadelphia Phillies 2013 Third Baseman?

Who will be the Phillies next third baseman?

At this point, all the Phillies fanbase can do is speculate.

A trade? A free agent signing? Or could the solution be solved in-house?

Kevin Frandsen came out of nowhere this season to become one of the biggest surprises in an otherwise dismal 2012 Phillies season.

In 195 at-bats—approximately one-third of a regular season—Frandsen batted a team high .338 with an OPS of .834.

Frandsen does not possess the power the Phillies would like out of a third baseman, but if they cannot make a big splash in free agency, the Phillies could give Frandsen a chance to be an everyday player.

Another upside to playing Frandsen is that he will come cheap. Much cheaper than any free agent signing or acquisition by trade. This would free up money to sign a quality outfielder and make serious changes to that Phillies’ bullpen.

Kevin Youkilis has been a name tossed around Philadelphia. He will turn 34 in March and made $12 million in 2012. You can expect Youkilis to look for a two to three year deal at around eight or nine million per season.

Youkilis finished the season batting .235 with 19 home runs and 60 RBI. Not terrible, by any means, but do the Phillies really need another player hitting below .250, who strikes out more than 100 times in a season? 

When you would have to overpay for mediocre numbers, acquiring Youkilis doesn’t seem like the best fit with the current Phillies lineup.

 

 

Chase Headley may be available via a trade. He’s one of the best third baseman in the game, coming off a great all-around season—.286 average, 31 home runs, 31 doubles, and 115 RBI.

He also stole 17 bases and played in 161 of 162 games this season. The Padres will have to be blown away by an offer the Phillies make to even consider moving him.

It is doubtful that GM Ruben Amaro will clear the farm system again. Acquiring Headley seems more like a pipe dream of Headley wearing Phillies pinstripes next season.

The Phillies also have two third baseman in the minor leagues that are both a year or two away from contributing at the major league level.

Cody Asche hit .300 with 10 home runs in a half season at Double-A.

Maikel Franco batted .280 with 14 home runs and 84 RBI in Single-A Lakewood.

It will be an interesting off season for the Phillies, but by next spring don’t be surprised if Kevin Frandsen gets a chance to start for the Philadelphia Phillies. 

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Philadelphia Phillies Fans Should Be Excited About Prospect Darin Ruf

Going into the 2013 season, the Philadelphia Phillies do not have one legitimate starting outfielder on their entire roster. Yes, I’m talking about Domonic Brown, John Mayberry, Lanyce Nix, Nate Schierholtz and Juan Pierre. None of which have the skills at this point in their careers to start for a championship-caliber team.

Insert Darin Ruf, a first baseman by trade, who is now in the process of moving to left field in order to earn a chance to play for the 2013 Phillies. His 2012 campaign has been a remarkable one to watch, he even blasted two home runs last night against the NL East Champion Washington Nationals, providing all of the Phillies’ lackluster offense. When is the last time another Phillie hit two home runs in a game? I couldn’t even tell you.

Between Double-A Reading and the major leagues, Ruf has hit 41 home runs and driven in 113 runs in 520 at-bats. Man, the Phillies could sure use those kind of offensive numbers in 2013, especially because they have no idea what they are going to get out of sluggers Ryan Howard and Chase Utley next season.

Ruf can provide a spark to an offense that none of the above mentioned Phillies’ outfielders can. Even if his defense is sub-par, having another bat in the lineup that can drive in 100 runs and hit over 30 home runs will be instrumental in rebuilding a dominant Phillies offense of years past. Besides, none of the other current Phillies outfielders are by any means a Gold Glove candidate. If the Phillies can win a ring with Pat Burrell in left field, why not Darin Ruf?  

In the 30 at-bats we seen so far from Ruf, an observant eye can tell you he is having quality major league at-bats: not swinging at bad pitches, getting ahead in the count and having total control of the inner half of the plate. It seems every time he step in the batter’s box, he has a plan on how he wants to attack the pitcher.

The Phillies are in desperate need to interject some talented youth into their organization. The Washington Nationals are full of young, hungry, players. In order to compete with them over the long haul, the Phillies are going to need a spark that will lead them back to the top of the NL East. That spark may just be the power-hitting Darin Ruf.

Ruf will play winter ball this offseason to work on his defense. Look for Ruf to takes names, and someone’s job come 2013 spring training.  

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The Top 5 Surprises in an Otherwise Disappointing Phillies Season

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ 2012 campaign has been disappointing on multiple levels, but the wound that stings the worst is that the team’s consecutive NL East title streak will come to an end.

On the other side of the pillow, there have been a few bright spots in a season filled with underachievement. Players of all ages have made significant contributions in 2012 that will leave the Phillies and their fans eager to see if these players can continue their progress in 2012.

Here are the Phillies’ top five biggest surprises in the 2012 MLB season. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins Is Having a September to Remember

Jimmy Rollins is having his best month of the season by far here in September and he has been a huge reason for the team’s recent success. Without Jimmy’s clutch performance this month, the Phillies would still be struggling to reach the .500 mark for the season. Now, they find themselves only four games back of a playoff spot.

In September alone, Jimmy is batting .333 with 6 home runs, 11 RBI, 6 stolen bases and 14 runs scored. His OPS in September is his best month by far at 1.389. It’s been a great September for Jimmy Rollins so far, and it’s only September 20th.  

Rollins is proving to be worth every penny of his three year, $33 million dollar deal that made many fans in Philadelphia a bit skeptical. In comparison to other shortstops in the National League, Rollins is third in hits (150), second in doubles (33), third in triples (5), third in home runs (22), second in walks (54) fourth in OPS (.753), second in total bases (259) and first in extra base hits (60).

On the season, Jimmy is batting .253 with 22 home runs, 63 RBI, 30 stolen bases, 22 doubles and an OPS of .746. His WAR in 2012 is 2.4.

Jimmy’s defense has also been top of the line in 2012. His fielding percentage is at .977 and he has only made 13 errors in 146 games played this season.

Rollins has proven once again why he is one of the top shortstops in the National League. Hopefully he can continue his late season success into 2013 and lead the Phillies back to another National League East Championship.

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