Updating Jonathan Papelbon Trade Suitors After Burning Bridges in Philly

Back in mid-June, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reported that the Philadelphia Phillies believed that the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals each had interest in reliever Jonathan Papelbon.

Although general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. had recently expressed his lack of interest in trading his closer, claiming that they didn’t have a capable replacement in the organization nor was there a strong market to find a closer in the upcoming offseason, I went ahead and put together potential trade packages from those three teams.

With the Phillies hanging around in the playoff race over the next several weeks, rumors surrounding Papelbon had dwindled.

But after voicing his frustrations with the direction of the organization on Sunday, following the team’s seventh consecutive loss, the word is that the Phillies are open to trading him. In fact, it appears they’re listening in on everyone, aside from Domonic Brown, Chase Utley and Cole Hamels, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.

Jayson Stark of ESPN says that the Phillies’ unwillingness to take on any of Papelbon’s remaining contract (remainder of $13 million in 2013, $13 million in 2014, $13 million in 2015, $13 million vesting option in 2016) could make it difficult to make a deal.

In addition, the Texas Rangers are reportedly shopping closer Joe Nathan, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney, which would also seem to drop Papelbon’s value. 

There’s one additional team to add to the mix of teams potentially seeking a closer after the Pittsburgh Pirates lost Jason Grilli to a strained forearm for at least a month and possibly the remainder of the regular season. Papelbon’s contract makes them even less likely than the other three aforementioned teams, who have much bigger payrolls.

As for those aforementioned teams, here’s an update on their current bullpen situation and the trade package I put together for each back on June 19. Since then, the 32-year-old Papelbon has allowed four earned runs in 13 innings pitched with three walks, 10 strikeouts and six saves in nine chances. 

 

Boston Red Sox 

My original trade package had the Sox sending Junichi Tazawa to Philly to give the Phils a potential replacement for Papelbon, as well as outfield prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. and Anthony Ranaudo. Today, that sounds closer to what the Phillies would get for trading Cliff Lee to the Sox.  

I didn’t write that this would get the deal done for Papelbon. I was only speculating on what the Phillies would be asking for in exchange for one of the top closers in the game. It’s doubtful the Sox would include Bradley in any deal that wasn’t for an impact starting pitcher or hitter. 

Koji Uehara (pictured) has also stabilized the closer’s role (12 IP, 0 R, 5 H, BB, 17 K, 5 Sv in six chances), lessening the need to add a closer, although there’s no doubt that Papelbon’s presence would push everyone else down and make the group even stronger. 

If the Sox would take on the remainder of Papelbon’s deal, I think Ranaudo and Tazawa would be enough to bring Papelbon back to town.

Detroit Tigers 

I had the Phils filling two holes with a Papelbon-to-Detroit deal last month. Avisail Garcia would come over and take on the starting right field job in 2014, while hard-throwing rookie Bruce Rondon would immediately become the team’s “closer of the near future”. Low-A starter Jake Thompson, who is having a strong season in Low-A ball, would be the third piece. 

The Tigers have cooled on the idea of acquiring Papelbon, however, with Joaquin Benoit (pictured) taking the closer’s role and running with it over the past several weeks (17 IP, ER, 13 H, 3 BB, 23 K, 8 Sv in eight chances). Drew Smyly has flourished in the eighth inning role and Monday’s acquisition of Jose Veras, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, helps to solidify the bridge to Benoit. 

While the Tigers could still add bullpen help, it’s unlikely to be a closer with a big contract like Papelbon.

St. Louis Cardinals

I had to get a bit creative to make a potential Papelbon trade with the Cards work last month, expanding the deal to include Jimmy Rollins as an upgrade at the shortstop position. In order to land the two veterans, I had St. Louis giving up two top prospects, second baseman Kolten Wong and right-handed starter Michael Wacha. 

There’s two reasons why this potential trade proposal isn’t happening now.

First of all, Edward Mujica continues to get the job done as the Cardinals’ closer, converting 30 of 32 saves overall and posting a 2.01 ERA with only two walks and 38 strikeouts in 44.2 innings.

Adding Papelbon to close and dropping Mujica (pictured) into an eigth-inning role would strengthen the ‘pen overall, but it’s probably not worth the price—at least one top prospect while taking on Papelbon’s contract. 

Secondly, Jimmy Rollins wasn’t hitting much (.701 OPS on June 19) at the time of my proposed blockbuster trade. He’s been even worse since (.599 OPS in 32 games). They could still use an upgrade over Pete Kozma at shortstop, but it won’t be Rollins, who has a big contract and a full no-trade clause. 

So unless the Sox decide they want Papelbon back and will take on the remainder of his contract, Papelbon and the Phillies are stuck with each other, as one rival executive put it, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

 

 

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Finding Perfect Trade Scenarios for Every Top Philadelphia Phillies Trade Chip

The Philadelphia Phillies have been a very good team for the past decade with zero sub-.500 finishes, five division championships and a World Series title. They even cracked my “10 Most Brilliantly Run Franchises” list. So why have so many big-name Phillies players been so prominent in trade rumors this season?  

Here’s why. They weren’t expected to place any higher than third in the division with the Braves and Nationals popular picks for division winners and World Series hopefuls. Combine that with an aging roster that included several veterans eligible for free agency after the season and little help on the way from the upper minors. It made plenty of sense to write this team off in early April.

The loss of Roy Halladay to a partial rotator cuff tear didn’t help ease the trade rumors and a team that has played uninspired baseball through 79 games (38-41) has only added fuel to the Hot Stove. 

Despite all that, they’re only seven games back of a playoff spot. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. would rather add to his 25-man roster and make another possible last run with this core of players, but the reality is that he’ll have no choice but to “sell” if his team falls any further back in the next month. Given the talent on the roster, it wouldn’t be a surprise if things didn’t get better. 

This team has to get younger in 2014 and Amaro would have a head start by shopping all free-agents-to-be on his roster and possibly even a player or two under contract for a few more seasons in order to bring back some elite prospects to a farm system sorely lacking in high-end talent.

Here are the five players that will generate the most interest and a perfect trade scenario for each.     

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Assembling Jonathan Papelbon Trade Packages from the Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reported in a recent column that the Philadelphia Phillies believed that the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals all had interest in their closer, Jonathan Papelbon. Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has also recently stated his lack of interest in trading any of his most valuable assets and an unwillingness to break up the core of his team and start over.

In the case of Papelbon, he mentioned that his team doesn’t have a replacement ready to step in for one of the best closer’s in the game. And there is no one “on the market”, according to Amaro —I’m assuming he’s referring to external options in the upcoming offseason.

Amaro’s job, however, is to make sure that his team is competitive year in and year out. In order to do so, he must weigh his options and not mortgage the future to try and win now when his roster is not good enough to do so.

While trading Papelbon doesn’t fit Amaro’s philosophy not to “do five-year plans” —which actually makes sense now if he thinks he’ll be out of a job if the 2013 or 2014 team isn’t competitive— the organization may need to decide as a whole on the club’s direction. If that direction is to get younger and improve the farm system, trading their 32 year-old closer might be a start.  

Here’s what it might take for the three aforementioned teams to acquire Papelbon.  

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Is Roy Halladay’s Injury the Last Straw in a Philadelphia Phillies Fire Sale?

While the Phillies didn’t have an all-out “fire sale” in 2012, they obviously felt their chances for a playoff spot were slim when they traded away starting outfielders Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino on July 31st.

And who could blame them? At the time of the deal, they were in last place with a 45-57 record and 13 games out of a wild-card spot. They did receive some much-needed bullpen help with Josh Lindblom coming over from the Dodgers in the Victorino trade, but it was evident that both trades were part of a movement toward the future.

In the Pence trade, the Phillies landed prospect Tommy Joseph, who could be the team’s next starting catcher with Carlos Ruiz set to become a free agent after the season, and right-hander Seth Rosin, who has a 3.24 ERA with three walks and 25 strikeouts in 33.1 Double-A innings this season.

In addition to Lindblom, pitching prospect Ethan Martin also came over from the Dodgers. The former first-round pick is struggling in Triple-A (6.35 ERA in six starts), but he was ranked the No. 6 prospect in the organization by Baseball Prospectus prior to the season and allowed just one earned run in six innings on Monday.

A funny thing happened, though, after Pence and Victorino were traded. Someone forgot to tell the remaining Phillies players that the season was over. They went 36-24 the rest of the way and were back in the playoff hunt late in the season.

The front office was hoping the momentum from the last two months of 2012—along with the offseason additions of setup man Mike Adams, third baseman Michael Young and outfielder Delmon Young and the health of their veteran core of players—would push them back to the top of the division in 2013.

It’s still too early to count them out, but it’s going to be tough to surpass the Braves and Nationals—Philly is in third place with a 15-18 record and five games out in the NL East. A healthy Chase Utley (.798 OPS) and Ryan Howard (.783 OPS) help, but with one of the three aces, Roy Halladay, on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation, their NL East challenge just got much tougher.

The biggest question surrounding the club at this point is whether it will allow its strong finish to the 2012 season affect how it operates at the trade deadline. Do the Phillies think they have another late-season surge in them, or is this the right time to start cashing in on some valuable trade chips with an eye on adding some young talent to an aging ballclub?

For now, they are expected to fill Halladay’s rotation spot with another young pitcher from the farm system. Still focused on the 2013 season, though, they’ll look externally for a long-term solution.

Amaro said Phillies will go internal for call-up to fill Friday’s starting spot. Also looking outside org for long-term answer.

— Matt Gelb (@magelb) May 6, 2013

At some point, they could start to look ahead if they feel like their roster is simply not good enough to stick around and then make a run as they did last season.

Here’s a look at their projected 2014 roster if they stand pat and hold on to Cliff Lee and all others that won’t become free agents after the season.

Starting Lineup

1 Ben Revere, CF
2 Freddy Galvis, 2B
3 Jimmy Rollins, SS
4 Ryan Howard, 1B
5 John Mayberry, RF
6 Domonic Brown, LF
7 Tommy Joseph, C (pictured)
8 Cody Asche, 3B

Starting Rotation

1 Cole Hamels, LHP
2 Cliff Lee, LHP
3 Kyle Kendrick, RHP
4 Adam Morgan, LHP
5 Jonathan Pettibone, RHP/Jesse Biddle, LHP 

Bullpen

CL Jonathan Papelbon, RHP
SU Mike Adams, RHP
SU Antonio Bastardo, LHP
MID Phillipe Aumont, RHP
MID Justin De Fratus, RHP

Regardless of who the Phillies trade and acquire at the trade deadline, it’s very likely they head into next offseason with a young lineup that features as many as five players 26 years old and under and a projected rotation that could feature two young pitchers who could still have rookie status, depending on how many big league innings they pitch in 2013.

The money coming off the books after the season is substantial ($46 million between Halladay, Ruiz, Utley and M. Young), so there is a chance they go with what they have and try to add another impact bat or two to the lineup.

Trading away Cliff Lee and/or closer Jonathan Papelbon while strengthening the farm system would only create more holes heading into the offseason. A mini-fire sale, focused on the team’s free agents-to-be, would allow the Phillies to add a few more good prospects to the farm system, however, and possibly some more financial relief to go into the free-agency period. And they wouldn’t be as focused on trying to replace Lee at the top of the rotation.

That “free agents-to-be” list includes Halladay, Ruiz, Utley, D. Young and M. Young. 

Carlos Ruiz, C: Trying to trade Ruiz right now would require the Phillies to direct as much attention as possible to his breakout 2012 season (.934 OPS). Since then, he’s had a 25-game suspension for a positive test for amphetamines and two hits in 20 at-bats since his return. They’ll hope he can return to his 2012 form, which would make him a highly sought-after starting catcher at the trade deadline. 

Chase Utley, 2B: A second baseman who could hit anywhere from the No. 2 spot through No. 6 spot on a good team, Utley (pictured) will be a popular man if the Phillies put him on the market. He has a partial no-trade clause that would allow him to block trades to 21 teams, although it’s possible he’d waive it for a chance to go to a playoff competitor down the stretch.

Some very interesting potential destinations are already being thrown around the Twitter-verse.

If PHI doesn’t turn it around, Chase Utley could be one of the most interesting players on the trade market. KC, BAL great possible fits.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) May 6, 2013

Delmon Young, OF: Even if Young puts up his typical mediocre numbers during the regular season—he’s already on his way (3-for-20)—the Phillies can point at his postseason production over the last three seasons (27-for-94, 8 HR, 2 2B, 3B, 15 RBI) and try to convince a contender of his potential value in October and November. 

Michael Young, 3B: A few teams, including the Dodgers, could use a veteran like Young as their starting third baseman. Several others would find the 36-year-old, who is a career .302 hitter in over 7,500 big league at-bats, to be a valuable role player who can play both corner infield spots or designated hitter in the American League.

Young isn’t showing much power this season (30 of his 37 hits have been singles), but he’s hitting .333. They won’t get much in return but could probably get a live arm with upside to add to the lower minors.   

Roy Halladay, SP: If his shoulder injury is serious and requires more than a few weeks of recovery time, his trade value would all but disappear. A mid-June return would ensure teams get a good look at him to determine if he can help down the stretch. We’ll know more soon. He’ll visit Dr. Lewis Yocum for further evaluation.

An all-out “fire sale,” however, would likely involve the shopping of Lee (pictured), who is owed $75 million, including this year, and as much as $27.5 million more in a vesting option for 2016. Trading the 34-year-old would likely ensure the team gets another elite prospect added to the farm system, at least one more very good prospect, a lot of money off the books but a huge hole in the rotation for 2014.

A look at the organizational depth shows that some help is on the way, but there are a ton of holes on the roster, especially the lineup, heading into 2014. I’d expect the Phillies to look ahead to 2014 at some point during this season, but I think they’ll pass on trading every single player of value in the process. 

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Potential in-Season Trades the Philadelphia Phillies Will Need to Make

The topic of prospective trades to be considered by the Philadelphia Phillies needs to be broken down into two sections, because I can see the season going one of two ways: It can go really, really bad or it can go just good enough to make a run at a playoff spot following some trade-deadline reinforcements.

I’m leaning towards this being a very bad season in Philly, one in which they are well out of the playoff race in July and looking to sell off a few free agents-to-be.

My other scenario has them somewhere within reach of a wild card spot in mid-July, but obviously not good enough to actually get there with the current 25-man roster in place. As opposed to 2012 when they traded off some key pieces (Joe Blanton, Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino) despite being down but not out of it, the Phillies should look to add this time around and take one last shot with this veteran group of players.

Here’s whom they’d look to trade if they’re sellers come July…

 

Carlos Ruiz, C

Once he returns from a 25-game suspension for a positive amphetamine test, Ruiz will have a couple of months to prove to contending teams looking for catching help that his 2012 season wasn’t a fluke. 

At 33 years of age, Ruiz had career highs in almost every offensive category (.325 BA, .540 SLB, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 32 2B, 56 R) despite playing in only 114 games because of a season-ending foot injury.

Even if he’s closer to the pre-2012 version offensively, Ruiz still has value as a veteran catcher with terrific defensive skills, leadership and ability to come up with the clutch hit.

The Phillies will be hoping he can continue to rake as he did for most of last season, which would put them in position to ask for a very good prospect in return for two-plus months of Ruiz. He’s currently in the final year of his contract.

Several teams, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees, could all have interest if they are in buying mode.

 

Chase Utley, 2B

He’ll fall just short of the 10-5 category (10 years in the majors, five years with the same team) that would allow him full no-trade rights. Therefore, the Phillies can shop him to at least a list of teams not included in his partial no-trade clause.

Of course, Utley can waive those rights in order to go to a contending team in the last year of his contract with the Phillies. The 34-year-old appears fully recovered from the knee injury that kept him out until late June in 2012. He had a terrific spring (.875 OPS) and is off to a 4-for-9 start on the season with a homer, double and triple.

Chase Utley is a different person this spring. Last spring, he was hurt and reclusive. This spring, he is healthy, and vibrant

—Tim Kurkjian (@Kurkjian_ESPN) February 26, 2013

 

The Oakland A’s, Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals are just a handful of teams who could be looking for an upgrade at second base in July. A healthy Utley, who is making $15 million in 2013, could fetch the Phillies a top prospect if another team were to take on some of his remaining salary.

 

Michael Young, 3B

The 36-year-old might be down to his last chance to prove he’s still an everyday player in the big leagues. Teams will have interest whether he is or not. He does still have plenty of believers out there, including old teammates:

Mike Napoli on former Rangers teammate Michael Young, now with the Phillies: “He’ll have 200 hits this year.” @mlbonfox

—Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) February 17, 2013

 

He can still play both corner infield spots and would be a terrific option to have coming off the bench late in games during a pennant race.

The Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates are a few of the National League teams that would have a spot for him as a primary pinch-hitter and part-time starter at first and third, while the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles are two American League teams that could give him regular at-bats against left-handed pitching.

 

Roy Halladay, SP

Major concerns surround Halladay right now after the 35-year-old veteran struggled in spring training and was knocked out in the fourth inning of his regular season debut on Wednesday.

According to many, he just doesn’t look like the same guy. Here’s an ESPN recap on his first start, which includes some quotes from an unimpressed scout.

So who is going to trade for Halladay if he continues to struggle? That’s easy. Any team looking for pitching help and hoping to get a huge discount on a future Hall of Famer. So most contending teams will at least be asking about him.

The question is how much of his remaining salary will the Phillies take on and what level of prospect will they seek in return? Halladay also has a $20 million option for 2014 that will vest with 225 innings.

For him to reach that mark, he’d have to be pitching very well, so it shouldn’t be a huge hurdle in trade talks since his value would be much higher.

And here’s whom the Phillies could potentially target if playoff hopes are still alive at midseason:

 

Chase Headley, San Diego Padres  

With a decent option in place at the hot corner in Michael Young, and solid depth behind him in Freddy Galvis and Kevin Frandsen, it doesn’t make sense to look for an upgrade unless it’s an elite player.

Headley is an elite third baseman who might be available.

Acquiring Headley would be costly, but the Padres could be intrigued by a package that included Galvis, who would likely be their starting shortstop with Everth Cabrera possibly moving to second and Jedd Gyorko replacing Headley at third. The deal would be centered around one of their top pitching prospects (Jesse Biddle or Adam Morgan) and could also include one of their third base prospects (Maikel Franco or Cody Asche) and another high-ceiling prospect in the low minors.

For one-and-a-half years of Headley, that might be a bit much, but it could also mean another run at the playoffs if the 28-year-old switch-hitter can repeat his second-half performance of 2012 (.978 OPS).

 

Michael Morse, 1B/OF, Seattle Mariners

He won’t offer much defensively, but the right-handed slugger would fit nicely in the middle of a lineup that is currently left-handed heavy. The 31-year-old had nine homers in 20 spring games and has already hit three in his first 13 plate appearances of the regular season.

If the Mariners are out of the playoff race, they’ll look to deal Morse, who will be a free agent after the season. Don’t think the Phillies aren’t aware of his career success at their home ballpark (18-for-51, 5 HR, 13 RBI).

Acquiring Morse in late July would make their lineup down the stretch look something like this:

1) Ben Revere, CF  2) Jimmy Rollins, SS  3) Chase Utley, 2B  4) Ryan Howard, 1B  5) Michael Morse, LF  6) Domonic Brown, RF  7) Carlos Ruiz, C  8) Michael Young, 3B 

The Phillies might have to give up their best pitching prospect not named Biddle or Morgan. That would likely be Ethan Martin (3.48 ERA, 8.4 K/9 in 27 Double-A starts in 2012) or Jonathan Pettibone (3.10 ERA, 6.4 K/9 in 26 starts between Triple-A and Double-A in 2012).

Giving up one of those two prospects would be totally worth it, though, if the team is playing well and within striking distance of a playoff spot.

 

Lucas Harrell, Houston Astros

If the Phils are in buying mode, there’s a good chance Halladay has turned things around and the back-of-the-rotation duo of Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan are doing well.

Just in case they’re hanging in there despite that not happening, Harrell could be a good candidate to succeed in the Phillies rotation.

The 27-year-old was third in the majors with ground ball ratio of 57.2 percent, which is important since fly balls often have a good chance of departing Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

He was at it again in his 2013 debut, holding the Rangers to one run in six innings while inducing nine ground ball outs. It won’t take a top-10 prospect to land him, so he could be an intriguing option. A potential late-inning reliever like Jake Diekman or Justin De Fratus, along with a mid-level prospect, might be enough to land a solid workhorse like Harrell down the stretch. 

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