2011 MLB Preseason Preview: N L East – Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies (2010 record: 97-65) The Phillies entered the new year as one of a handful of teams with a legitimate claim to the designation as the best team in baseball. They entered the free agency fray at the end of the process and lured southpaw Cliff Lee away from both the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees. As a result, they have arguably the best rotation in all of baseball (and potentially the best rotation in baseball over the last twenty or thirty years).

However, as spring training got underway, the Phillies learned that All-Star 2B Chase Utley would be lost for an indeterminate time due to an acute case of patella tendinitis in his right knee. Next, rookie outfielder Domonic Brown, who was set to relace veteran Jayson Werth—who left this winter as a free agent—suffered a broken hamate bone in his wrist in a spring training game. He is out indefinitely. 3B Placido Polanco is now felled by a hyper-extended left elbow. Closer Brad Lidge is once again ailing—this time suffering with tendinitis in his right biceps.

Suddenly, the once mighty team (on paper) is looking awfully fragile (in the flesh).

Notable additions: SP Cliff Lee

Notable subtractions: 1B Mike Sweeney, RF Jayson Werth

The offense:

Catcher: Carlos Ruiz

Infield: Ryan Howard (1B), Wilson Valdez (2B), Jimmy Rollins (SS) and Placido Polanco (3B)

Outfield: Raul Ibanez (LF), Shane Victorino (CF) and Ben Francisco (RF)

The offense finished second in the league in runs last season, and was already faced with the loss of Werth (.296/27/85) to the Washington Nationals. Now, the loss of Utley—who posted an OPS+ of 124—will compound the problems with the lineup. He will be replaced by UT Wilson Valdez, who played in a career-high 111 games last season because of injuries to Utley and SS Jimmy Rollins. While he is capable of replacing Utley in the field, he hit just .258, with 4 HR and 35 RBI.

1B Ryan Howard continues to be the primary cog in the Phillies machine. Over the course of the last five seasons, he leads the majors in homers (229) and RBIs (680).

With Utley out of the lineup, the club will have to rely on bounce-back seasons from Rollins, Ibanez and Victorino.

Rollins, a switch-hitter, was slowed by injuries last season. Though not the prototypical leadoff man, he regularly got on base enough to justify batting atop the lineup, but over the last two years his age seems to have been hindering his production. Last year, he hit just .243 with eight HR and 17 stolen bases. A return to his 2007-08 form (.287, 20 HR, 44 SB) would go a long way to minimizing the loss of Utley.

Similarly, age seems to have sapped some of the power from the bat of Raul Ibanez, who hit fewer than 20 homers last year for the first time since 2004. The Phillies and their fans would love to see him return to his 2009 form (34 HR, 93 RBI). A strong second half last year gives the organization hope.

Victorino won his third consecutive Gold Glove last year, but saw his batting average and on-base percentage both regress by more than 30 points. With the diminished on-base skills, his runs-scored fell from 102 (in both 2008 and 2009) to just 84 in 2010. It goes without saying the club will need those extra runs in light of the loss of Utley (and Brown).

Ruiz is an excellent backstop who is among the best in the game at handling the pitching staff. Happily, he also provides solid offensive contributions – hitting .302, with a .400 OBP, last year.

Polanco is a contact hitter who doesn’t provide much in the way of power at a position that is routinely counted on for home runs and rbi in today’s game (he has hit just 96 HR in 13 seasons in the big leagues).

Ben Francisco will take over in right field until Brown’s wrist heals. While Francisco has never had more than 450 AB in a season, he can be a valuable fill-in or platoon player. He posted a line of .266/.332/.438 in 121 games with Cleveland as recently as 2008.

The pitching staff:

Rotation: RHP Roy Halladay, LHP Cliff Lee, LHP Cole Hamels, RHP Roy Oswalt, and RHP Joe Blanton

Closer: RHP Brad Lidge

The pitching staff improved significantly with the addition of Lee. After all of the drama of whether he would head to New York or Texas, he selected Philadelphia… and we later learned the Phillies were his top choice all along. During his brief stint in The City of Brotherly Love back in 2009, he enjoyed the city, the fans, the organization and his teammates. I look for him to make a run at 20 wins this year.

Halladay, the reigning NL Cy Young, is a seven-time all-star who has now won the Cy Young Award in each league. He is considered by many to be the best pitcher in the league, and I expect that he, too, will make a run at 20 wins.

Among Lee, Oswalt and Hamels there are another seven all-star game appearances. Lee has also won a Cy Young Award, having been so honored when he was with Cleveland, in 2008.

Halladay (.662), Oswalt (.643) and Lee (.625) enter 2011 ranked first, fifth and eighth in career winning percentage (among active pitchers with at least 100 decisions). ‘Nuff said.

The weakness of the club last year was its relief corps, which ranked 9th of the 16 teams in the National League last year. Lidge is a strength at the back end of the bullpen—when healthy. He bounced back from a rough 2009 to convert 27-of-32 save opportunities last season, including 21-of-23 in the second half, when he compiled a 2.10 ERA.

Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras are excellent set-up men. Madson has electric stuff, and had arguably the best season of his career – though he blew half of the save opportunities entrusted to him (5-of-10). Contreras moved to the bullpen for the first time since making nine appearances in relief for the NY Yankees in his rookie year (2003). He made a seamless transition, going 6-4, 3.34, with 4 saves (5 save chances) in 67 games.

Southpaw JC Romero continued his tendency for roller-coaster outings—allowing lots of base runners but escaping peril more often than not. It would be remarkable to see what he might accomplish over a full season if he didn’t walk as many batters (42 BB in 53.1 IP over the last two years).

Prediction for 2011: 1st place (96-66)

Thoughts of a 100-win season died with the demise of Utley. Still, the Phillies rotation is outstanding and will enable the club to win more than its share of 4-3 and 3-2 games on the nights the offense isn’t clicking.

My mid-January prediction projected them to go 100-62. Based on my belief Utley will be gone half of the year (or more), I am knocking four wins off that projection.

Oh, yeah, and one other related issue… even when Utley returns—IF he returns—what kind of production will he supply? His OPS has dipped from .976 (in 2007) to .832 (in 2010).

 

Top Five Prospects:

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jarred Cosart, RHP
3. Trevor May, RHP
4. Jesse Biddle, LHP
5. Sebastian Valle, C

Brown is an exceptional athlete who was drafted out of Redan High School (in Stone Mountain, GA) in 2006. The schoolboy standout passed up a chance to be a two-sport standout at the University of Miami (FL) to sign with the Phillies for $200K.

Brown has been compared to Barry Bonds and Darryl Strawberry due to his physical attributes. He projects to be a five-tool standout throughout his career. He generates incredible bat speed, and his upper-cut swing would make Ted Williams proud. He has a short, quick, powerful stroke that should generate 25+ HR regularly in the big leagues, especially in Citizens Bank Park. He has above average speed and decent instincts on the base paths.

Defensively, he is a work in progress. He doesn’t take especially good routes to fly balls, and for such a good athlete he seems to have some difficulties with his footwork. He has the strongest arm in the system, though it can be a bit erratic. Still, with seasoning, he will be the type of defender opposing base runners will want to be cautious with.

He got his baptism in the major leagues late last year, getting into 35 games (but getting just 62 at-bats). His first full season in Philadelphia will be delayed due to a broken wrist, suffered in a spring training game but when he arrives he will make an immediate impact. Take it to the bank.

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2010 NL East Preview: Phillies Should Win Third Straight Pennant

The Phillies made a valiant attempt to defend their championship last season, but came up shy as they eventually fell to the Yankees in the World Series. Nonetheless, the loss to the Bronx Bombers should not diminish the club’s accomplishments during the season—an NL East title (with a 93-69 record) and a second straight National League pennant.

General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. went into the offseason hoping to build a team that would return to the World Series again in 2010, while simultaneously creating a roster that would allow the team to remain competitive for the next few years.

With that in mind, he traded star left-hander Cliff Lee in a three-team deal that netted his club star right-hander Roy Halladay. Lee was a free-agent-to-be who was determined to test free agency at the end of the season while Halladay was a free-agent-to-be who was willing to negotiate an extension (which the team and player later finalized).

By virtue of that trade alone, the Phillies have virtually guaranteed they’ll field a championship caliber club for at least the next two or three seasons (assuming good health).

Key Additions: P Danys Baez, P Jose Contreras, UT Ross Gload, P Roy Halladay, 3B Placido Polanco, C Brian Schneider

Key Subtractions: C Paul Bako, 3B Pedro Feliz, P Cliff Lee, P Pedro Martinez, P Brett Myers, P Chan Ho Park, OF Matt Stairs

Key Performer, 2010: P Cole Hamels

Starting Rotation

Halladay (17-10, 2.79) immediately becomes the staff ace. Rescued from a stagnant Blue Jays team and the hyper-competitive AL East, he figures to post 20 wins and win the NL Cy Young Award if he remains healthy. Lefty Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32) is coming off a disappointing 2009 campaign and is positioned for a strong rebound season. LHP J. A. Happ (12-4, 2.93) performed well in his first season in the rotation (23 starts) and could provide the Phils with the same kind of 1-2-3 punch the Red Sox and Yankees have atop of their respective rotations. RHP Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.05) is unspectacular, but solid. He’ll eat innings, win in double digits, and post a decent ERA and WHIP… just don’t expect him to do anything more. Southpaw Jamie Moyer (12-10, 4.94) will be playing in his 24th season this year. He was bad in 2007, good in 2008, and bad again last year… so he’s due to have another good season in 2010.

Bullpen

The Phillies are hoping that Brad Lidge (0-8, 7.21, 31 saves) will re-discover the form that made him 41-for-41 in saves back in 2008. While they don’t need him to be perfect, they need him to at least resemble the pitcher he was in their world championship season. RHP Ryan Madson (5-5, 3.26) will be Lidge’s primary setup man and could close if Lidge struggles again. LHP J C Romero will be called on to get big outs in both the 7th and 8th innings. RHP Contreras will replace Park and should prove capable of pitching lots of meaningful innings to bridge the gap to the late innings. RHPs Chad Durbin and Danys Baez fill out the rest of the relief corps.

Lineup

The Phillies lineup is the deepest in the National League. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins (.250, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 31 SB) will lead off in spite of the fact that he sported just a .296 OBP last season. There are others in the lineup who are more capable of filling the role effectively (Shane Victorino), but skipper Charlie Manuel apparently doesn’t want to upset one of his key contributors. Polanco is one of the best 2-hole hitters in the game and will assume that role in Philly.

2B Chase Utley (.282/31/93), 1B Ryan Howard (.279/45/141), and RF Jayson Werth (.268/36/99) form one of the best 3-4-5 combinations in all of baseball—They will cause opposing pitchers to have many a sleepless night after charting games.

LF Raul Ibanez (.272/34/93) and CF Victorino (.292/10/62) ensure pitchers can’t take a breather once they get past Werth. C Carlos Ruiz (.255/9/43 in 322 AB) will hit eighth.

Outlook

The Phillies will be improved in 2010. Putting Halladay atop the rotation for the entire season adds four or five wins. A rebound season from Hamels should do likewise.

The lineup is formidible from top to bottom. Polanco won’t hit as many home runs as Feliz, but he will prove invaluable behind Rollins at the top of the order. Ruiz will post better numbers with more playing time and help make up for the marginal decline in power from Feliz to Polanco.

The Phillies will win the NL East and likely cruise into the World Series yet again, awaiting the Red Sox—who will beat the Yankees in the ALCS.

SOX1Forecast: 102-60, 1st place.

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Philadelphia Phillies — Top Five Prospects

1. OF Domonic Brown
2. OF Tyson Gillies
3. P Phillippe Aumont
4. OF Anthony Gose
5. P Jarred Cosart

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