Cole Hamels’ Hot Streak Means Phillies Must Cash In on Blockbuster Trade

The 2014 Philadelphia Phillies are in an unenviable spot, wedged between the faint hope of contention and the reality of long-term ramifications with an aging roster. Stuck in the middle of a confusing summer at Citizens Bank Park: homegrown left-handed ace Cole Hamels.

In a logical world, general manager Ruben Amaro would be wiser than to draw meaning from a recent five-game winning streak. Despite the charge, including a three-game sweep of the Braves in Atlanta, the Phillies reside at 34-40, in last place in the NL East and owners of a slim 10 percent chance to qualify for the postseason, per ESPN.

If Amaro and Philadelphia’s front office do hold a fire sale, Hamels’ name won’t be at the forefront. Upon signing a long-term deal in summer 2012, the now 30-year-old was expected to bridge the gap from past to future success for the former NL East juggernauts. 

With older pieces like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Marlon Byrd, A.J. Burnett, Jonathan Papelbon, Cliff Lee and Carlos Ruiz on the 25-man roster, the Phillies could realistically hold an open auction without moving on from Hamels.

Yet, if the team truly wants to get younger, improve an unimpressive farm system and trade the faint hope of contention in 2014 for a true shot at glory in 2016 and beyond, Hamels represents the best chance for a franchise-changing haul.

While the septet of veterans could net the Phillies varying degrees of prospects and salary relief, none of those readily expendable names comes without concerns.

From age (Rollins, Byrd, Ruiz are all 35 or older) to injury concerns (Lee is currently on the DL with an elbow injury) to regional trade implications (Burnett won’t play far from his Monkton, Maryland, home) to drop in velocity (Papelbon), it won’t be easy for Amaro to find teams willing to sacrifice top prospects for his marquee veterans.

Hamels, however, is a different story. Since May 11, the former World Series MVP has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In nine starts over that span, the potential NL All-Star has posted the following eye-opening numbers: 65 IP, 1.66 ERA, 46 H, 70 SO, 22 BB and .201 batting average against. 

That streak included a stretch of 23.2 innings without yielding a run, the second-best streak of Hamels’ nine-year career. 

Despite that dominance, Hamels has only two personal victories to show for his work. Worse, Philadelphia has lost five of his nine excellent starts due to a dearth in run support. Despite the frustration, Hamels doesn’t want to be moved unless the Phillies engage in a full-scale rebuilding mode, per Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly.

“Then it’s a different situation,” Hamels said. “And I think you kind of have to look at it in a different way because your careers are only so long. Your good years only last so long. You want to make them count.”

For as much as Hamels wants to make his prime count, the Phillies need to make it count even more. By cashing in its best chip now, Philadelphia can expedite a rebuilding process that should have begun last year, if not sooner.

Furthermore, with 24 of 30 teams (including Philadelphia) within six games of postseason position entering play on June 23, an abundance of contenders could be looking for help over the next six weeks, with impact starting pitching at the forefront of potential discussions.

When surveying the scene of potentially available starting pitchers, Hamels stands out for two distinct reasons: 2014 excellence and a reasonable long-term deal moving forward. From 2015-18, Hamels is due $22.5 million per season. In total, $90 million over four years is a bargain for a star-level lefty in his early 30s.

While the following chart includes lower-priced arms and one lefty outshining Hamels this season, the best combination of age, production and cost assurance belongs to the biggest trade chip that Amaro currently owns.

For contending teams, the trading season will represent the annual tug of war between winning now and preserving the future. Thanks to excellent production and a reasonable long-term deal, Hamels represents the best of both worlds. His potential inclusion on the open market would change the entire specter of the 2014 season, along with altering the future of the Phillies.

During an interview with SportsRadio 94 WIP in Philadelphia on Monday morning, Amaro was asked about the potential of moving Hamels before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Although the general manager expressed the desire to move forward with Hamels in the organization, his response was void of any guarantee, per CBS Philly.

“I have to keep my mind open on everything,” Amaro said. “Again, some of these guys have limited no-trade clauses. Clearly, we’d like to keep Hamels because I think he’s going to be a part of any transition we might have to make.”

If Amaro‘s mind is truly open and Hamels continues to mow down National League hitters, offers will come in for the excellent starter.

The 2014 Phillies may be decent enough to make a run in a mediocre NL East, but the odds say that a trip to October is a long shot. If the franchise wants to reposition itself for future trips to the postseason, it’s time to cash Hamels in for potential stars.

Agree? Disagree?

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs and ESPN unless otherwise noted and valid entering play on June 23.

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Jimmy Rollins’ All-Time Phillies Hit Record Leaves Lasting Legacy, HOF Debate

Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins is now the all-time hit king in franchise history, surpassing Mike Schmidt with career hit No. 2,235 on Saturday afternoon against Cubs starter Edwin Jackson. After 15 years of borderline Hall of Fame-caliber play, the best shortstop in the history of Philadelphia now has the number to cement his legacy.

Since arriving to Veterans Stadium as a dynamic, athletic and switch-hitting force in 2000, Rollins has been a model of consistency and durability as the Phillies franchise transformed from laughing stock to National League powerhouse. Along the way, Rollins racked up gaudy numbers, but was overshadowed at times by teammates like Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Now, as the Phillies’ run of excellence has ended, Rollins is back to where he was when his sterling career began: a standout in a sea of poor baseball.

While stars like Utley and Cole Hamels still remind Philadelphia baseball fans of winning days, the roster isn’t good enough to compete. By next month, a roster purge could commence around the July 31 trade deadline.

Yet, in this moment, Rollins deserves the attention that has somehow eluded a player that will one day be enshrined in the Phillies Wall of Fame at Citizens Bank Park. Perhaps, a trip to another hall of fame will also one day commence.  

As Jayson Stark of ESPN dutifully described, Rollins’ Hall of Fame case isn’t buoyed by becoming the all-time hit leader in Phillies history, but another credential certainly doesn’t hurt. With unique statistics—such as the 400 SB/200 HR club—each marquee moment left in Rollins’ career doubles as another reason for Hall of Fame consideration.

Upon breaking the record held by the legendary Schmidt, Rollins vaulted atop the all-important hits category in franchise history. As you can see from the following chart, it’s not the only area in which he’s excelled and rewritten the record books over the past 15 seasons.

Schmidt, the gold standard for Philadelphia baseball players and possibly the best third baseman in the history of the sport, recently talked about Rollins’ career statistics and the idea of misinterpretation around a player with a batting average of just .268, per Bob Brookover of The Philadelphia Inquirer. 

“We were kidding in the clubhouse that we have the same career batting average,” Schmidt said. “I think a lot of teams would like to have Jimmy Rollins as their shortstop.” 

Schmidt may have been talking about the present, but his assertion could work across the annals of baseball history. Time will tell if Rollins’ career deserves legitimate Cooperstown conversation, but there’s little denying that a special shortstop has been in Philadelphia for a long, long time.

The following chart shows where Rollins ranks among the most prolific shortstops ever, but it’s almost more remarkable to think about some of the names he’s ahead of on those respective lists, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required). 

With more home runs than Barry Larkin or Alan Trammell, Rollins brought power to Philadelphia’s lineup. By scoring more runs than Ozzie Smith or Joe Cronin, Rollins consistently did his duty as a leadoff hitter. In the midst of swiping more bases than Derek Jeter or Omar Vizquel, Rollins added a different dynamic to the offense. 

Of course, unlike many of the great shortstops in history, Rollins played at a time where Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez excelled. Upon breaking into the league, Cal Ripken Jr.—then a third baseman—still loomed over the position.

Perhaps in a different era, Rollins would have been a big fish in a small pond. In recent memory, however, his offensive exploits became mundane to contemporary baseball fans accustomed to productive shortstops.

Rollins’ legacy—both in Philadelphia and around the sport—has been subdued. This franchise hit chase, however, has rightly cast a spotlight on a player that teammates admire for work ethic and consistency.  

After a recent start against the San Diego Padres, A.J. Burnett spoke about Rollins’ path to the record and why his teammate deserves credit.

“You have to feel good for Jimmy during this chase,” Burnett said. “He’s been an incredible player for years and deserves credit for taking care of his body, staying consistent with his approach and aging well. It’s not easy to keep hitting or pitching at a high level as the years creep up. I’ll tell you what, I love playing with him.”

Closer Jonathan Papelbon, upon racking up his 300th career save, talked about how easy it is for individual numbers to get lost in the shuffle when a team is struggling to win games.

“Sometimes stats, like my saves or his hits, can get overlooked when the team isn’t performing as well as everyone hoped, but he deserves his moment,” Papelbon said. “To pass Mike Schmidt is amazing. I love watching him play and playing alongside him. Jimmy is special.”

As the years go on, Papelbon’s quote could become a prescient view on Rollins. Since 2000, words like “talented” and “brash” have been used frequently to describe the three-time NL All-Star and 2007 NL MVP, but rarely are fans or columnists willing to use the word “special” to describe this rare talent.

Now, after years of piling up games, plate appearances and hits, Rollins sits alone atop the Phillies franchise hit list. In time, future generations will look at Rollins and Schmidt alongside each other as the most prolific hit men in franchise history.

Beyond that? Memories of a special player will commence and the Cooperstown debate will rage on.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs and ESPN, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts. Burnett and Papelbon quotes obtained firsthand.

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2014 Phillies Fire Sale Would Completely Change MLB Trade Market

The 2014 Philadelphia Phillies are a confounding baseball team, stuck between a successful past and a bleak future. In the present, a mediocre potential contender has emerged due to the parity engulfing the National League East.

Heading into play on May 22, the Phillies sat at 20-23 through 43 games. Despite a .465 winning percentage and a fourth-place standing in the division, Philadelphia sat just three games behind the first-place Atlanta Braves in the loss column.

Over the next six weeks, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. must decide if one more run at relevance is wise or if a rebuilding process should commence through a July fire sale. Right now, Amaro admits to having no idea about what kind of team he possess, per Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.

“I don’t have any idea yet about that,” Amaro said. “Frankly, we really don’t know what we have. … There’s a lot of parity and a lot of mediocrity out there — including us. We’re playing like a mediocre club. We’re playing like a .500 ballclub.”

If—and it’s a big “if” considering the aggressive nature of Amaro—the Phillies fall out of the race and decide to become sellers over the next two months, the entire complexion of the Major League Baseball trade market would shift. Instantly, the Phillies would hold the cards to the 2014 pennant chase and potentially gain long-term payroll flexibility and a chance to rebuild a less-than-impressive farm system.

Despite its losing record and inconsistency, Philadelphia has veteran pieces that could enhance contenders around the game. From Cliff Lee to Chase Utley to Marlon Byrd to Jonathan Papelbon to A.J. Burnett, a quintet of season-changing players could become available to the highest bidders.

Let’s start with Lee.

The veteran lefty is currently on the 15-day disabled list with an elbow injury, putting a halt on his value and availability at the deadline. Furthermore, losing Lee for an extended period would hurt the Phillies and potentially lead the team down the path of selling in July.

If healthy, Lee is a game-changer and instantly the top arm on the trade market. Despite $37.5 million in salary guarantees remaining after the 2014 season, no potentially available arm—from Jeff Samardzija to Mark Buehrle to Bronson Arroyo—can headline a rotation like Lee. 

Chase Utley is 35, and his days as an MVP-caliber player were supposed to be over. Thus far in 2014, that’s far from the case. Heading into play on May 22, the all-time great Phillies second baseman owned an OPS of .934 and an OPS+ mark of 155. 

Over the course of baseball history, only two second basemen—Rogers Hornsby and Nap Lajoie—have posted higher adjusted OPS marks during their respective age-35 seasons, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).  

With contenders such as Baltimore (.590 OPS) and Kansas City (.640 OPS) receiving poor production from current second base combinations, Utley’s inclusion on the trade market could bring a substantial return for the Phillies and reshape a lineup in the pennant chase.

Marlon Byrd may fly under the radar, but there’s no denying how good he’s been since the start of the 2013 season. With an OPS+ of 135, Byrd ranks eighth among all outfielders over that span, per Baseball-Reference. Some names behind Byrd on that list: Matt Holliday, Bryce Harper, Nelson Cruz and Jay Bruce. 

Last year, Byrd was shipped from the New York Mets to the Pittsburgh Pirates in an August trade. This summer, a similar deal could commence for an impact hitter on a team-friendly two-year, $16 million contract.

Closer Jonathan Papelbon can be loud, brash and irritating to fans. While his personality is controversial and his contract—$13 million for 2015—is prohibitive for an aging reliever, the former Red Sox star is still productive. When factoring in his production (18 G, 2.08 ERA) and his battle-tested nature, a team in need of a closer could be convinced to surrender either cash or prospects for Papelbon’s services this summer.

Finally, there’s A.J. Burnett. As the last piece of the 2014 Phillies puzzle, Burnett arrived to camp after the start of spring training to serve as the third member of a rotation trio along with Lee and Cole Hamels. Through 10 starts, the former Marlins, Blue Jays, Yankees and Pirates starter hasn’t disappointed, pitching to a 3.32 ERA across 59.2 innings.

With World Series experience and a solid FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark of 3.32 since the start of the 2012 season, Burnett would likely draw a slew of suitors in the trade market.  

Every year, franchise-changing moves are made during the trade season. From rebuilding teams selling off veterans to win-now franchises looking to find the final piece to a championship club, expect moves to occur over the next few months.

As the 2014 season evolves, no team holds more weight across baseball than the Phillies. If they stay in the NL East race, potential impact contributors will stay in Philadelphia with the edict of restoring glory to a franchise that owned the NL from 2007-2011. 

If the Phillies can’t survive the recent loss of Lee and succumb to the perils of an aging roster and neophyte manager, one of the most interesting rosters in baseball could supply contenders with multiple stars for the stretch run.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster breakdowns via MLBDepthCharts.com. 

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Philadelphia Phillies 2014 Season Preview

When the 2014 Major League Baseball season opens, the Philadelphia Phillies will attempt to change a disturbing trajectory: After five straight years (2007-2011) of ascending win totals, the Phillies have gone from 102 to 81 to 73 wins in the last three seasons.

Now, with an aging, veteran-laden roster and a general manager unwilling to invoke a complete and total rebuild, the Phillies will attempt to shock the baseball world by contending for a postseason berth this summer.

For the first time in years, fan sentiment and expectations are low, leaving the front office and the 25-man roster on an island alone in steadfast belief. Despite the accolades and past success, the idea of championship baseball in Philadelphia isn’t permeating the city.

Although the franchise is reluctant to change and move past former days of glory, one notable difference will accompany the 2014 Phillies: manager Ryne Sandberg.

Technically, the Hall of Fame second baseman took over the job last August. In 42 games, Sandberg posted a 20-22 record at the helm. But with a full offseason and spring training as the head man, Sandberg now can begin to put his stamp on a roster that likely needed to hear a new voice. 

The National League postseason race could be wide open, giving the seemingly uninspiring Phillies one last chance at a meaningful run. 

Can they stay healthy, productive and cohesive enough to surprise?

Here’s how the 2014 season will play out at Citizens Bank Park.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts. 

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Jimmy Rollins Trade Scenarios That Would Make Sense for Phillies

Jimmy Rollins has been a member of the Philadelphia Phillies organization since the second round of the 1996 amateur draft. If some members of the team’s front office have their way, a nearly 18-year tenure could be coming to an awkward close. 

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Phillies believe it might be time to part with the 2007 National League MVP. 

This news comes less than a week after Rollins sat on the bench for three straight Grapefruit League contests. Manager Ryne Sandberg offered “no comment” when initially asked for his reasoning, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.

If the Phillies truly want to move on from Rollins, it won’t be easy. 

With $11 million due to the 35-year-old shortstop in 2014, it will take a team willing to add significant payroll late in spring training or Philadelphia’s ownership eating a large chunk of the money still owed. Furthermore, a one-year, $11 million option for 2015 will automatically be in play if Rollins makes 434 plate appearances this season.

As a 10-and-5 rights player (10 MLB seasons, last five with the same team), Rollins can invoke a no-trade clause to veto any deal. With just 60 hits separating the veteran shortstop from the top spot in Phillies franchise history, it’s unlikely to happen now. 

When broached about a possible deal by CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury, Rollins didn’t seem keen on the idea.

“I don’t know,” Rollins said. “If we’re in absolutely last place with nowhere to go and change is obviously on the horizon, then at that point I’d think about it. But anything short of a complete disaster, I’m wearing red and white pinstripes.”

These situations, however, have a funny way of working themselves out.

If the Phillies can find a trade partner and Rollins agrees to leave the only team he’s ever known, a move could commence.

In return, the Phillies could look for outfield depth, a veteran bullpen arm or a young starting pitcher. 

Here are Jimmy Rollins trade scenarios that would make the most sense for the Phillies.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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What Is the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies’ Ceiling If They Get, Stay Healthy?

On the surface, the Philadelphia Phillies look like a team in rapid decline. After setting a franchise record with 102 victories in 2011, the team hasn’t been over .500 since. 

During the early days of spring training, optimism is easy to find on baseball fields in Florida and Arizona, where players are rejuvenated, refreshed and often in the best shape of their respective careers. By the time April begins, reality arrives.

In Philadelphia, a cast of former champions is trying to stave off extinction and produce one last run at glory. Yet, with 81 and 89 losses, respectively, over the last two years, it’s not easy to envision this Phillies team playing meaningful September baseball.

If they do surprise, health will be the biggest reason for a turnaround.

Of course, unlike the run of dominance from 2007-2011, the Phillies don’t have the firepower to cascade into October baseball. During that run, the Phillies’ ceiling was routinely 100-plus victories and the best record in the National League.

Now, three years later, the same level of performance probably won’t be good enough to garner a wild-card spot in the National League.

Don’t tell that to relief pitcher Jonathan Papelbon. During a colorful session with the media in Clearwater, Fla., the longtime closer wasn’t bashful about how good he thought the 2014 Phillies could be, per Jeff Skversky of 6 ABC Philly.

“If I was a gambling man, I would take us to go all the way,” Papelbon said.

If Papelbon has any chance to look prescient, two areas of this team will have to come together to form a winning foundation: The big four and three aces.

Let’s start with the position players.

In New York, the Yankees built a dynasty on the back of four homegrown position players: Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams. In Philadelphia, another quartet emerged into a winning nucleus: Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard.

Although different and less heralded, Philadelphia’s nucleus delivered results, including a World Series championship in 2008 and return trip in 2009. 

Yet, since the end of the 2009 season, they haven’t been on the field together enough to deliver the same results. According to Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, the Utley-Ruiz-Rollins-Howard quartet has started just 116 of 648 possible games together over the last five seasons. 

In those games, the Phillies are 68-48, good for a winning percentage of .586. Over the course of 162 games, that winning percentage prorates to a 95-67 record. 

Clearly, it’s overly optimistic to ask any of that group to play in every game in 2014—especially a catcher like Ruiz—but the point remains: When the Phillies have had their four lineup rocks together, they’ve won.

Unfortunately for Phillies fans, the quartet has aged and gone through a myriad of injury issues. Ryan Howard, the 2006 NL MVP, profiles as the biggest question mark of the four. After suffering through leg issues since 2011, the days of .900-or-better OPS marks are likely over.

That didn’t stop the 34-year-old first baseman from expressing optimism when camp opened, per Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly.

“I feel like I can play 162 games,” Howard said. “My whole offseason was dedicated to trying to play all 162, plus trying to make it to the playoffs. My goal isn’t to come out here and try to play 120 games. That’s not why I play baseball.”

At this point, the Phillies would gladly take 140 games from Howard, Utley, Ruiz and Rollins. While full, unimpeded seasons would be nice, they aren’t realistic. Despite decline, each of Philadelphia’s veterans has been adequate-to-excellent among their peers when healthy. 

In 2011, Howard’s last season of 150-plus games, the slugger posted an .835 OPS. Last year, Allen Craig, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Eric Hosmer and Nick Swisher all failed to match that mark.

Despite an on-base percentage of only .317 since the start of 2012, Jimmy Rollins ranks seventh among shortstops in that category. With offensive and the run-scoring environment down, the 35-year-old still reaches base more than most of his peers.

In 2012, Carlos Ruiz posted a .935 OPS, 149 OPS+ and .394 on-base percentage. Over the last two decades, only five catchers have matched or exceeded a season like that. Their names: Piazza, Napoli, Mauer, Posada and Posey. 

During Chase Utley’s prime (2006-2010), he was worth 39.5 bWAR. That figure is the second highest in baseball history for any second baseman between the ages of 26 and 30, trailing only Rogers Hornsby’s run from 1922-1926. 

Those days are over, but Utley’s 3.5 bWAR in 2013 was still the ninth best among second baseman.

If the Phillies’ offensive veterans can profile as durable contributors, a dominant, top-heavy rotation could carry the team into relevance. 

The following chart compares the top three starters in two recent starting rotations. As you can see, Group A was superior in durability, run prevention and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Across the board, they trumped Group B.

Yet, the difference wasn’t stark. Group B’s performance was very, very good and capable of generating victories.

As you may have guessed, Group A is the 2011 Phillies’ trio of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels.

Group B? The combined 2013 statistics of the newly formed Big Three in Philadelphia: Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and A.J. Burnett.

If the 2014 Phillies can receive a close facsimile of either of those standout rotation numbers, the pitching staff will be in good shape. From dominance to innings, the Lee-Hamels-Burnett trio—if healthy—can be one of the best in the league.

Now that we’ve explored how the Philles reach their ceiling, what win total is actually realistic if so many question marks turn into positive answers?

Recently, MLB Network released the 2014 PECOTA projections for 2014 records. The Phillies came in at 76-86, which, despite how poor that looks, is actually a three-game improvement from last season. 

Those projections factor everything into account, from best- to worst-case scenarios. Factoring in the production of Philadelphia’s veterans when healthy and the potential of the Lee-Hamels-Burnett trio, 87 wins feels right for a ceiling on the 2014 Phillies.

Unfortunately, for a city that became so accustomed to October baseball, the Phillies’ best likely isn‘t good enough for a return to the postseason. 

Since 2007, the second wild-card team from the NL (factoring in which team was in that position in the years before the additional spot was added) averaged 88.8 wins. 

The 2014 Phillies can, and likely will, be better than their 2013 version. If everything goes right, meaningful baseball could be on the horizon in August and September. 

Yet, despite any optimism from Clearwater, Fla., predicting a return to glory in Philadelphia is too much to ask from this group.

Agree? Disagree? 

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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A.J. Burnett Signing Provides Perfect Cole Hamels Insurance, Chance to Contend

In the course of a whirlwind morning, the Philadelphia Phillies may have lost Cole Hamels for the start of the season, acquired A.J. Burnett and given themselves a slight chance to actually contend in 2014. 

Only in Philadelphia can doom, gloom and exuberance seamlessly come together. As pitchers and catchers get set for the season in Clearwater, Fla., the Phillies will undergo a massive change to their projected starting rotation.

First, the news came down, per Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, about Cole Hamels’ arm issue that will sideline him through March and past Opening Day.

According to Lawrence, Hamels felt discomfort in his left shoulder and biceps during his winter throwing program. 

“It’s not like there is any pain or discomfort (now),” Hamels said. “It’s just the building up the muscles (process). Like they say, you can’t run a marathon right off the bat.”

At this moment, there’s little reason to believe that Hamels is going to be out for an extended period of time or lose more than a few April starts. His spring training, however, will be compromised if he can’t work his way back into game action in March.

With the need for rotation insurance becoming a major issue in Philadelphia, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and the front office closed a deal with free-agent starter A.J. Burnett, signing the 37-year-old righty to a one-year, $16 million deal. Hayden Balgavy of THV 11 in Arkansas first reported the news. CSN Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury confirmed the news. Before long, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal jumped in on the action:

Within an hour of losing an ace to arm discomfort, the Phillies added another.

Confused? It’s understandable.

On the surface, the Hamels injury and Burnett signing can be taken many different ways: Is Burnett’s arrival a reactionary move or precursor to a prolonged absence from Hamels? After watching the way Roy Halladay downplayed spring-training discomfort last year, is Hamels’ season in jeopardy? Can Burnett’s arrival make the Phillies a contender for the first time since 2011?

All of those questions are fair and should be posed to Amaro when he meets with the media in Clearwater.

Before garnering the answers, this much is clear: Burnett’s arrival is a tremendous move for a franchise that hasn’t made enough of them over the past few years. After dominating the NL Central in 2013, Burnett represented a bargain in the free-agent market.

Due to his late arrival on the open market, many teams didn’t have the payroll flexibility to truly enter the mix. Plus, Burnett’s preference to play within driving distance of his Maryland home made the Phillies a logical destination.

Regardless of how or why the Phillies came to an agreement with Burnett, it’s a move that will change their fortune in 2014. 

For as long as Hamels is sidelined, Burnett can adequately replace his production atop the rotation alongside Cliff Lee. For a team that needs excellent starting pitching to contend, a rotation without Hamels or Burnett could have buried the Phillies in an enormous April hole.

Furthermore, if Burnett is as good as he was last year, the Phillies suddenly have reason to believe. 

Entering the 2013 season, the Phillies portrayed themselves as a contender, despite an aging, decaying core. 

Why?

In their minds—along with baseball experts—the team had a shot to contend as long as the trio of Lee-Hamels-Halladay headlined its rotation, pitched 600-plus excellent innings and limited runs in more than 90 combined starts.

Due to Halladay’s ineffectiveness, stemming from injury and eventual surgery, that plan never came to fruition. Despite getting 64 excellent starts from the combination of Lee and Hamels, the 2013 Phillies lost 89 games and finished with a worse run differential than the last-place Marlins.

Now, with Burnett in tow, the foundation for that dream can be laid once again. If the Phillies are going to contend in 2014, they’ll need excellence from their new three-headed monster atop the rotation. When, or if, Hamels returns in mid-April, that idea isn’t far-fetched.  

Last year, only 22 qualified starting pitchers owned an FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark of less than 3.30. Three of those 22 now reside atop the Phillies rotation. In fact, Philadelphia now boasts three of the top 18 starters based on FIP, per Fangraphs.

When using SO/BB rate as a reference point, the Lee-Hamels-Burnett trio ranked among the top 32 in baseball last season, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).

If you’re not sold yet, consider this: Over the last two years, 21 starters have made at least 60 starts and compiled an ERA below 3.50. As you can probably imagine, Lee, Hamels and Burnett are among them, according to Baseball-Reference (subscription required). In 2011, on the path to 102 victories, the Phillies boasted a similar distinction when Lee, Hamels and Halladay all pitched to ERA marks below 2.80. 

To be fair, Burnett isn’t going to make anyone leave a deposit for playoff tickets in Philadelphia. If Hamels is out for longer than expected, Burnett will simply fill his shoes and the Phillies will be a 75-win team in the NL East. 

Considering that their core hasn’t played a full season together in a long, long time, the Burnett signing can’t rescue this franchise alone. 

Expecting health out of the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies is a fool’s errand. If Jimmy Rollins stays healthy and productive, it’s unlikely that both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will join him. Prior to Hamels’ injury revelation, the Philadelphia Daily News‘ Ryan Lawrence asked if the team is too old and brittle to contend this season.

Per Lawrence’s research: “All told, Howard, Utley, Ruiz and Rollins have started a whopping 116 games together in the last four seasons. The Phillies have played 648 games in that time.”

In a perfect world, Hamels is fine by mid-April, the nucleus of a championship team stays healthy and Burnett gives the Phillies a dominant top three in the starting rotation. The formula could provide enough to keep Philadelphia on the outskirts of the postseason race this summer.

It’s not a perfect world in Philadelphia, but Burnett’s arrival offers a glimmer of hope for a downtrodden fanbase.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies 2014 Spring Training Preview

From 2007-11, Clearwater, Fla., was the place to be for Philadelphia Phillies fans. With a dominant, improving team and a willing and aggressive front office, the franchise attracted fans in droves to watch their roster train for the upcoming season.

Those days are over.

On the heels of back-to-back non-winning seasons for the first time since 1999-2000, the Phillies head into the 2014 season at a crossroads: The roster is designed to win now, but a lack of talent permeates through the goal.

In order to create optimism and shock a suddenly depressed fanbase, the Phillies must surprise in Clearwater, stay healthy through March and arrive back in Philadelphia as a team poised to recapture their former glory. 

Can they do it?

Without further ado, here’s a spring training preview for the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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Is the Phillies’ or Yankees’ Aging Roster the Bigger Risk in 2014?

When the Phillies and Yankees arrive for full-squad workouts in Clearwater and Tampa, Fla., respectively, a fountain of youth will be as necessary as cleats, gloves and bats.

Heading into the 2014 season, both the Phillies and Yankees are really, really old. The 2009 World Series combatants are five years removed from a date in late October, but it feels like an eternity since the two heavy-spending franchises had prime-aged stars to deliver postseason success.

In reality, both teams should be concerned with age, injuries and ineffectiveness in 2014. Yet, of the two, the Phillies’ issues and risks stands out.

According to MLB Depth Charts’ projected rosters, Philadelphia is poised to field an everyday lineup with an average age of 31.1. In New York, that number is 33.5. Those numbers, taken on the surface, give an edge to Philadelphia and place an aura of youth around one of these two aging teams. Yet, as we’ll get to below, the numbers can be deceiving. 

The respective starting rotations both skew over age 30 for an average number, but this time, Philadelphia projects as the more grizzled group. In fact, if the Yankees award their fifth-starter role to 25-year-old Michael Pineda, a former top rookie with the Seattle Mariners, the group would project to an average age of 29.6.

While that’s far from young, it represents progress for an aging team.

Before spending the rest of this column underscoring why the Phillies are in so much trouble in 2014, let’s acknowledge the issues in New York.

After spending over $500 million on talent this winter, the Yankees aren’t a finished product, the best team in their own division or a lock for the postseason. If that isn’t eye-opening enough, consider this: Despite losing both 44-year-old Mariano Rivera and 41-year-old Andy Pettitte to retirement, the Yankees head into 2014 as an older baseball team.

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post pointed out, not one member of New York’s starting lineup will be under age 30 when the season begins.

In a division that includes the defending champion Red Sox, the young, smart, evolving Rays, talent-rich Orioles and bounce-back candidate in the Blue Jays, the recipe for disappointment is prevalent in the Bronx.

The Yankees have issues, but the Phillies are in crisis mode. 

Here’s why: New York, despite its age, restocked the franchise with prime-age stars, hoping their star-level can elevate the rest of an over-the-hill roster. 

By acquiring Jacoby Ellsbury (30), Brian McCann (29) and Masahiro Tanaka (25), the Yankees committed roughly $60.1 million, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, to three potential All-Stars in 2014. Those players, unlike supplementary pieces added in Philadelphia, are expected to carry older Yankees through transition years.

If Derek Jeter stumbles in his age-40 season or Mark Teixeira can’t rebound from wrist surgery in his mid-30s, the new Yankees are in tow to pick up the slack. 

Yes, the Phillies can boast three projected starters—Cody Asche, Domonic Brown and Ben Revere—under age 30, something the Yankees can only dream of with the roster construction. As Jerry Crasnick of ESPN put it, Asche, Brown and Revere are the only three Phillies starters born after the 1970s. 

Outside of Brown’s All-Star appearance serving as the potential for bigger things in 2014, the Phillies are still relying on a core that has seen its time come and go.

The following chart illustrates the problem in Philadelphia. A franchise once built upon a relentless, bludgeoning offensive attack has been rendered meek. 

Instead of retooling with new, late-20s or early-30s stars to refuel the attack, Philadelphia has added age and banked on returns to health from aging former stars like Ryan Howard. 

Marlon Byrd, one of general manager Ruben Amaro’s major moves this winter, will be a 36-year-old outfielder in 2014. For most teams, handing a player like that a multiyear deal would be foolhardy. For the Phillies, it was a priority. 

Showing how seamlessly he’ll fit into the culture at Citizens Bank Park, Byrd spoke about the misconception around age with Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly.

“All of us do. You keep hearing old, old, old … we’re not an old team,” Byrd said. “We can still play. Once you can’t play, then you’re old. We still have a lot in the tank, we just to have to show that and stay healthy.”

Judging by the chart above, Byrd’s assertion is wrong. While he had an excellent bounce-back season last year at age 35, the core of the Phillies still can’t play. Or, at the very least, can’t play at the level it once did. 

Of course, not all of Philadelphia’s successful teams led the league in OPS. In 2011, the franchise won 102 games on the strength of pitching and a mediocre offensive attack. Led by Cliff Lee (35) and Cole Hamels (30), the front of the rotation is still outstanding, but the back—Kyle Kendrick, Miguel Gonzalez, Roberto Hernandez—leaves something to be desired.

According to Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, the Phillies rotation pitched to a 5.31 ERA in 66 games after the All-Star break last summer. 

In order for an above-average staff to emerge, Lee and Hamels will have to pitch like they are each in their 20s. During a primer on the Phillies’ season for CSN, Jim Salisbury raised the following point, likely sending chills down the spine of Phillies fans: 

“Want to feel old? Hamels turned 30 last month. And though he’s still younger than many of his teammates, he knows his baseball clock is ticking.”

If Hamels’ clock is ticking, the franchise is running out of time to compete. 

When Jesse Spector of Sporting News made his picks for 2014, he picked the Phillies to finish dead last in the NL East. That sentiment, while extreme, could be echoed by other voices that cover the sport on a national level.

In New York, despite the aforementioned issues, expect more postseason predictions than last-place proclamations from the media.

While it wouldn’t be a shock to see both New York and Philadelphia on the outside of the postseason picture, the more dire situation is emerging within the Phillies organization. The team is old, added players with little left in the tank and could be worse than the 73-win outfit of last season.

It’s too early to raise the white flag, but dark clouds are hanging over a Phillies team that still believes it can compete.

 

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball. 

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Why the Phillies Are Sleeper Team in Masahiro Tanaka Sweepstakes

For the first time in years, the Philadelphia Phillies are flying under the free-agent radar, but don’t completely count them out of the impending Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes. 

When the hot stove isn’t burning in Philadelphia, there’s a problem. Under the reign of general manager Ruben Amaro, the Phillies have been one of the boldest franchises during the winter months. This offseason, that mentality has been dormant thus far.

According to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, that could change. 

With the revelation of a conversation taking place between Tanaka‘s agent and Philadelphia’s front office, it’s just a matter of time before the Phillies are included on the list of teams that could chase the 25-year-old righty. 

On the surface, the Phillies have had a confounding offseason. Stuck between competing in 2014, rebuilding for the future and featuring a misshaped roster ill-fit for the rigors of a pennant chase in the NL East, Amaro has likely explored many avenues, including planning for the long-term good of the organization.

Of course, the impetuous Amaro hasn’t done anything to truly take that route. Instead, by signing Marlon Byrd to a two-year deal and re-signing Carlos Ruiz to a three-year pact, the team is signaling a desire to bring the band back together for one more run at relevancy.  

Clearly, a pitcher of Tanaka‘s caliber would aid in that quest.

Yet, the link between Tanaka and Philadelphia runs deeper than just wins and losses for 2014. The Phillies are a true sleeper in this sweepstakes due to three factors: finances, Amaro‘s history and the ability to keep their options open over the next few years.

First, as many of you will correlate, is the connection between Philadelphia’s new television deal and Tanaka‘s projected contract.

Comcast SportsNet and the Phillies agreed to a 25-year contract worth more than $2.5 billion last week, per Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Although the actual value isn’t quite what it seems when breaking down the numbers, per David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News, the layout is still massive and will afford the Phillies a chance to hold a significant payroll for the foreseeable future. 

As of now, the Phillies have over $141 million committed to their 2014 payroll, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Although the new television money won’t begin to roll in for two years, the franchise can begin to project more cash to spend on payroll in the future.

Tanaka, due to the low posting fee ($20 million) attached to his departure from Japan, age (25) and volume of teams (Yankees, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Cubs) in pursuit, could command a contract in excess of $100 million. It’s high for a mid-market team, but not for the Phillies in the aftermath of their television riches. 

If we realize this, Ruben Amaro undoubtedly has considered his freshly minted financial clout. When blockbuster moves are there to be made, regardless of the price in prospects or cash, Amaro has been far from shy during his tenure in Philadelphia.

Few general managers can boast about trading for Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Roy Halladay—three of the best pitchers of a generation—along with signing Lee off the free-agent market and eschewing the farm system in a quest for World Series berths. 

Amaro, as many now-disgruntled Phillies fans can attest, can easily boast about his gambling mentality. 

Now, backed by the specter of found money, Amaro can be aggressive again. Although he’s shied away from rotation help in the form of Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana, those free-agent arms come with concerns. From inconsistency to gigantic price tags, none of the non-Tanaka free-agent arms are great bets for $100 million.

Despite the unknown surrounding a move from Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB, Tanaka will garner a contract bigger than his free-agent counterparts. If Amaro is feeling the need to make his yearly splash, Tanaka makes more sense than anyone else for a rotation that has major question marks behind Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels.

Of course, even if the Phillies do morph from a sleeper to a favorite in the Tanaka sweepstakes, their chances of competing for a World Series in 2014 seem remote. Yet, having a young, rising star like Tanaka locked up could make Philadelphia’s eventual rebuilding process easier down the line. 

If the Phillies sign Tanaka to a long-term deal, they can move forward with the knowledge that Cole Hamels (signed through 2018, with team option for 2019) and Tanaka will headline the team in the midst of changes. Moving on from Cliff Lee at the trade deadline, a yearly debate in Philadelphia, would be more palatable with a 25-year-old pitcher entrenched to soak up his productive innings over the next few years.

Since the regular season ended with an ugly 73-89 ledger, the Phillies have teetered between the idea of winning now and sacrificing for the future, but actions speak louder than words. Unless the team takes a dramatic step in either direction, status quo will return for 2014, leading to apathy among a rabid fanbase.

Buoyed by a new television contract, a gunslinger in the front office and the long-term roster-building options that Tanaka‘s arrival would provide, the Phillies are a sleeper in the offseason’s biggest race. 

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball. 

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