Reassessing Philadelphia Phillies’ Offseason Plan and What’s Next

In Philadelphia, plans are subjective to change by the minute. Led by the impetuous nature of general manager Ruben Amaro, the Phillies lack direction.

Thus far this offseason, their handling of the free-agent market and trade rumors circling out of Philadelphia belabor this point: This franchise is heading south, quickly.

After setting the outfield market by handing Marlon Byrd a two-year, $16 million contract in early November, the organization allotted a three-year commitment to a 35-year-old catcher months removed from a poor season. 

The same thought process, misguided as it may appear, works in defense of the head-scratching deal given to starting pitcher Roberto Hernandez. Acquiring relief pitcher Brad Lincoln, at the expense of catcher Erik Kratz and lefty Rob Rasmussen, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, also fits the bill.

As delusional as those moves were, at least they were completed in the name of competing for a postseason berth in 2014. 

What’s transpired in the midst of those moves is beyond puzzling. As the Phillies take steps to ensure meaningful baseball next summer at Citizens Bank Park, half the roster has appeared in trade rumors.

From the logical (Domonic Brown), to the hopeless (Jonathan Papelbon), to the sentimental (Jimmy Rollins) to the full-scale rebuilding effort (Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels), the Phillies enter the latter portion of December at a crossroads of a critical offseason.

At some point soon, a roster must take shape for Ryne Sandberg’s first spring training in Clearwater, Fla. as the man in charge. Juggling multiple scenarios, short-term hopes and long-term dreams are fine for December, but far from it in February.  

In Philadelphia, fans want to see winning baseball again. From 2007-2011, no National League team dominated like the Phillies.

It will take time, patience and ingenuity to return a once proud and dominant franchise to respectability in the the NL East.

Here’s what should be next for the Philadelphia Phillies. 

*All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.

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Best Potential Trade Packages and Landing Spots for Phillies SS Jimmy Rollins

A symbol of unprecedented success for the Philadelphia Phillies may soon be the first casualty in a long rebuilding process. 

Jimmy Rollins, the 14-year veteran and former National League MVP, is currently on the trade block in Philadelphia. According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Phillies have made it clear to teams that they are very willing to move the 35-year-old shortstop. 

If a trade commences, Rollins, afforded a no-trade clause in his most recent contract, would have to sign off on leaving the only professional organization he’s ever known. Heading into the 2014 season, Rollins is just 59 hits away from breaking the all-time hits record in Phillies history, per Baseball-Reference.com. 

When the day for a decision arrives, Rollins could have multiple suitors to choose from. 

Here are the best potential trade packages and landing spots for Jimmy Rollins.

 

*Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

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Will the Philadelphia Phillies’ Disorganized Offseason Plan Doom Them?

If the Philadelphia Phillies, led by general manager Ruben Amaro, have a legitimate plan of attack this offseason, it’s time to explain it to a puzzled group of baseball insiders.

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Phillies are willing to chat about their aces, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, in trade talks. On Monday, Domonic Brown, the franchise’s only young building block, was floated in rumors at the winter meetings. Jonathan Papelbon, an overpaid closer on a 73-win team, is also rumored to be available, per CSN Philly.

On the surface, this all makes sense. In reality, the Phillies should be in full-scale rebuilding mode. After winning 102 games in 2011, the franchise has fallen on hard times. Over the past two seasons, the Phillies have lost 81 and 89 games, respectively, while becoming one of the least watchable products in baseball.

If Amaro, with the blessing of ownership, scaled back the payroll, traded stars like Hamels and Lee for a group of future impact players and scoured the market for ways to upgrade from Brown, few intelligent fans would be upset.

Instead, the team has sent dangerously mixed signals.  

Philadelphia’s offseason began with additions, not subtractions. By setting the outfield market with a two-year, $16 million deal for 36-year-old Marlon Byrd, the Phillies signaled a need for power in their lineup and protection for Ryan Howard. By re-signing veteran catcher Carlos Ruiz, the team refused to part with a leader, despite a poor 2013, because of a lack of major league-ready catching in the farm system.

On the surface, both deals were debatable, but made sense through the prism of trying to compete for a postseason spot in 2014. With a rotation led by Lee and Hamels, the Phillies, assuming healthy seasons from the core of Chase Utley, Brown and Howard, had a chance to compete on the outskirts of the National League wild-card picture.

As the winter meetings progress, the Phillies need to commit to a direction. If they don’t, the franchise will be left among competing, rebuilding and looking for both short- and long-term answers. As of now, the team is wading between both realms, unable to choose a direction.

The best general managers can juggle multiple scenarios, choose the right path and ultimately take their franchise in a direction that leads to long-term success. In July, Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Bob Ford wrote a piece about Amaro‘s trade-deadline plight, but the same words can be reshaped for the present moment. Per Ford’s column:

“Amaro will have to juggle all those considerations two weeks from now, whether the team perks up in the interim or whether it doesn’t.” 

Amazingly, due to a hot streak near the All-Star break, the Philadelphia media was contemplating Amaro‘s buy-or-sell strategy at the trade deadline. After the team limped to a 73-89 finish, including the removal of Charlie Manuel from the dugout, such thinking seems ridiculous in retrospect. Yet, it was there then the way it is now. 

To be fair, there’s a chance, albeit small, that Amaro has a grand plan.

If he can shed payroll by trading Papelbon or Lee, there’s a possibility that the money could be reinvested in a major bat like Shin-Soo Choo and arm like Masahiro Tanaka. 

If the embattled general manager can flip Brown or Hamels for major prospects, the team could finally engage the Miami Marlins in legitimate trade conversation for star slugger Giancarlo Stanton. 

Juggling multiple scenarios in December won’t derail success in May and June, but there has to be a clear, united vision in the front office. Right now, it doesn’t feel that way in Philadelphia. If these same rumors centered around Dave Dombrowski in Detroit or Brian Cashman in New York, the benefit of the doubt would be awarded. 

Amaro, through his own fault, doesn’t garner that respect in the game. During his tenure, he’s made mistake after mistake. From handing Howard a five-year, $125 million deal two years before he hit free agency, to signing a closer to a $52 million deal, to trading Lee for nonimpact prospects, Amaro hasn’t proven worthy of faith.

Right now, with Byrd and Ruiz on board, Papelbon poised to close games, Lee and Hamels at the top of the rotation and Brown ready to build upon a breakout 2013, the Phillies are a few moves from fielding a competitive team. While they’ll likely be closer to .500 than a postseason berth, relevance could return to Citizens Bank Park next summer.

Moving any of their veteran pieces, especially stars like Lee and Hamels, would change that plan, possibly for the better. It would, however, turn 2014 into a rebuilding season and make the contracts handed out to Byrd and Ruiz look ridiculous to everyone in baseball.

In the National League East, every team outside of Philadelphia seems to have a plan. Washington is attempting to win big now, Atlanta has a core of proven youth, New York is inching closer toward contention and Miami is attempting to cultivate a team of inexpensive future stars.

Only one remains a mystery. Until the Phillies show their hand, skepticism will remain. Juggling multiple scenarios and possibilities remains fine for now, but the clock is ticking toward Opening Day and another season with an aging, veteran roster and shallow talent base in the farm system.

Amaro may be poised to fix his past mistakes, but it’s becoming harder and harder to imagine a winning team emerging from his disorganized offseason plan.

Do you have faith in Ruben Amaro?

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Best Potential Trade Packages, Scenarios and Landing Spots for Domonic Brown

To the surprise of few around baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies have become the biggest story of the first day of the winter meetings. Under the regime of Ruben Amaro, Philadelphia has routinely been a high-profile, headline-grabbing franchise during the winter months.

Today, the morning announcement of Roy Halladay’s retirement signaled the end of a potential Hall of Fame career. Now, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, Philadelphia is actively shopping outfielder Domonic Brown.

The hope, per Passan, is to receive back a controllable starting pitcher to slot behind Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in the rotation. Coincidentally, Halladay’s retirement opened up that slot on the pitching staff.  

Brown, 26, emerged in 2013 as a National League All-Star. By smashing 27 home runs and posting an OPS-plus 23 percent higher than league average, the corner outfielder has become a valuable commodity. Although he isn’t eligible for free agency until 2018, the Phillies are interested in using him as a trade chip due to his sky-high value stemming from last season.

If the team does move him, a substantial arm must be brought back in return. 

Here are the best potential trade packages, scenarios and landing spots for a Domonic Brown trade. 

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Phillies’ Early Offseason Moves Show Delusion of Team’s Short-Term Title Hopes

After a 73-89 season, the Philadelphia Phillies should be in rebuilding mode. Instead, led by general manager Ruben Amaro, the front office continues to fancy itself a title contender.

Just a week after handing Marlon Byrd a $16 million contract, the Phillies have re-signed catcher Carlos Ruiz to a three-year, $26 million contract, according to Matt Gelb of The Philadelphia Inquirer. The moves signal a win-now approach by a front office that inhibits a team with little shot of competing in 2014.

At 34 years old, Ruiz is coming off a poor season, yet was afforded a substantial raise on his 2013 salary of $5 million. In 92 games, the veteran catcher produced a .688 OPS, good for 11th among catchers with at least 90 games played in 2013. The contract will keep Ruiz in Philadelphia through the 2016 season.

When the World Series concluded, Philadelphia’s offseason approach was unknown. Would it retool? Did Amaro have enough in the farm system to acquire a young impact player like Giancarlo Stanton or David Price? Was it time to finally give credence to a rebuild by trading veterans like Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon and Jimmy Rollins?

After spending $42 million on a pair of older, flawed hitters, it’s clear that the Phillies are lost.

Just months after finishing behind the Braves, Nationals and Mets in the 2013 NL East standings, a clear picture has not emerged within the Phillies offices. If it had, the team would not be spending millions of dollars on multi-year contracts for players that won’t be part of the next contending club at Citizens Bank Park.

Unfortunately for Phillies fans, the current approach is delusional and poised to delay a rebuilding process that will soon become the work of another executive. That work becomes more burdensome every time Amaro hands out another head-scratching contract. As of the Ruiz signing, the Phillies owe Ryan Howard, Byrd, Ruiz and Jonathan Papelbon a combined $54.5 million in 2015, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That quartet combined to provide 8.8 wins above replacement (per Baseball-Reference) in 2013. If age or injury plagues that group over the next two seasons, the Phillies could be spending more than $50 million on four below-average performers.

Of course, the problem isn’t with Byrd or Ruiz. In a vacuum, both players can help winning clubs by providing power, clutch hits and leadership. Unfortunately, those attributes will be lost on a club that doesn’t have enough high-end talent on the roster to play meaningful games in August or September of 2014 or 2015.

This past season, Byrd was a major contributor to Pittsburgh‘s playoff push, and Ruiz has been a key member of winning teams in Philadelphia since becoming a starter during the 2007 season. If clubs like, say, Pittsburgh or Kansas City gave veteran contributors those types of contracts, it would be understandable. The risk of overpaying or signing a player past his expiration date would be justified by trying to put a young, rising roster over the top and into October.

In Philadelphia, “young” and “rising” were words associated with Phillies teams circa 2006 and 2007. After dominating the National League East for years, capturing a World Series title and making annual appearances in October, the window is closed in Philadelphia. Yet, the franchise continues to pry it back open under the delusion of winning in 2014.

Over the last two seasons, the Phillies have lost 170 games, a feat matched or surpassed by only 10 teams in baseball. Outside of the Blue Jays, a club that is attempting to compete in 2014 after an injury-plagued 2013, none of the other losing teams (White Sox, Twins, Mariners, Astros, Mets, Marlins, Cubs, Rockies and Padres) have attempted to add veteran pieces to their 40-man rosters this early in the offseason. By understanding their place on the win-curve, those teams will try to improve with an eye toward the long-term future.

Right now, it’s clear that the focus is on short-term title hopes in Philadelphia. If it wasn’t, Byrd would still be on the open market and Ruiz wouldn’t have garnered a three-year contract after a poor year.

Even before any other true contender acquires a free agent or makes an impact trade, the Phillies are still behind Washington, Atlanta, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Los Angeles in the National League hierarchy. Their recent activity on the free-agent market is moving the Phillies within striking distance of mediocrity, but still realms from contending for a title anytime soon.

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What Ruben Amaro Jr. Must Do to Save His Job, Legacy This Winter

Ruben Amaro Jr. is the general manager of a bad baseball team.

As Major League Baseball enters the offseason and winter months, the Phillies executive is fighting for his job and legacy. Repairing the damage that has been inflicted upon the organization can’t be undone overnight. The path to returning to contention will be long and arduous. Until Amaro realizes that, the team won’t be properly suited to turn around.

From the moment Amaro took control of the Philadelphia front office, the franchise has experienced extremes.

In 2009, Amaro’s first season as general manager, Philadelphia made a second consecutive trip to the World Series, falling in six games to the New York Yankees. In 2010, the team won 97 games and made a third consecutive trip to the National League Championship Series, falling in six games to the San Francisco Giants. In 2011, Amaro’s concoction of talent set a franchise record for regular-season victories (102), but bowed out to the St. Louis Cardinals in a classic, five-game division series.

Since that moment, the wheels have come off at Citizens Bank Park.

2012 brought about the franchise’s first nonwinning season since 2002. Instead of a full, thorough and introspective look at what went wrong, Amaro and Co. decided to push forward in 2013 with an eye on returning to the postseason.

The result? One of the worst teams in baseball. At 73-89, the Phillies finished in fourth place in the NL East, behind the lowly New York Mets. No team in the National League posted a worse run differential. Outside of the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia’s was outscored at a higher clip than every team in professional baseball.

Now, as Amaro gears up for his sixth offseason at the helm in Philadelphia, his job and legacy are on the line. If he can’t transform the Phillies back in a winning outfit, he won’t be around much longer, especially after firing manager Charlie Manuel in August. When the passionate Philadelphia fans look for accountability, Amaro will be the only one to take the fall. 

Unfortunately for the 2009 PSWA (Philadelphia Sports Writers Association) Executive of the Year, job security and legacy are two separate and distinct entities. Due to the dearth of young, ascending talent in the organization, Amaro’s fate may already be sealed. At the end of 2014, his tenure as Phillies GM could end. 

Amaro’s legacy, however, can still be saved. If the GM prioritizes a winter plan that focuses on long-term contention, not a Band-Aid approach for 2014, he can still be remembered as an integral piece in Phillies history.

That’s right, folks. Forget big-game hunting for names like David Price or Giancarlo Stanton. Eschew the notion that Carlos Ruiz is a priority. Eliminate the idea of two or three-year deals for flawed relief pitchers.

It’s time for the Phillies to retool the farm system, prioritize 2015 and 2016 over 2014 and accept this as the inevitable state of the National League East: As of this moment, the Philadelphia Phillies are the least likely team in the National League East to go on a sustained run of success over the next half-decade. Forget catching the Braves and Nationals atop the division, the New York Mets and Miami Marlins have more young talent on their 40-man rosters.

Of course, before any of those goals can be accomplished, Amaro needs to see the writing that is plastered on the wall. If it takes a magnifying glass, so be it. If it requires a monocle, no expense should be spared. If it takes every media personality in the city of Philadelphia to stage a fan intervention, let it happen.

Next week, some of the brightest minds in the sport will convene for the annual GM meetings. Within days, Amaro must shed the thought process that has been permeating out of Philadelphia since September. That thought process centers around the Phillies adding major pieces this winter with an eye on contention in 2014. In other words, the wrong approach.

In September, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News asked Amaro if it would be fair to say this coming winter wouldn’t feature big-name acquisitions in Philadelphia. Amaro’s response was blunt.

“Nope,” said Amaro.

More recently, CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury pieced together a primer on Amaro’s impending offseason direction. Among the many highlights: Prioritizing the re-signing of 35-year-old catcher Carlos Ruiz, adding a right-handed hitter to the outfield mix, possibly Stanton, but more likely signing Nelson Cruz or trading for Mike Trumbo, and adding veteran relief pitchers to the bullpen.

There’s probably not enough Web space to chronicle why all of those ideas have downsides, but let’s start here: Prioritizing any 35-year-old catcher is foolish, chasing an impossible fish to catch (no pun intended) in Stanton is a waste of time due to limited farm system chips, Cruz is an awful defender and comes with questions off a 50-game performance-enhancing drug suspension, Trumbo just posted a .294 on-base percentage for Los Angeles and allocating resources to veteran relievers is one of the biggest wastes of money in professional sports. 

The problem, more than the actual players bantered about, is the ideology. Rebuilding teams don’t prioritize players like Ruiz, attempt to surrender major assets for a superstar like Stanton or look to bring in a flawed power-hitter like Trumbo. Those are moves made by a team on the cusp of contention or with a nucleus in place that can offset the downside (risk, money, prospects lost, player weaknesses) that all those moves, in some capacity, come with. 

As you are probably screaming at your computer or phone while reading this, a rebuild or retooling of the roster is much, much easier said than done. Even if Amaro wants to go that route, ownership, with millions more in their pockets due to Major League Baseball’s new national television contract, per Fangraphs, can’t just cut payroll and expect fans to flock to Citizens Bank Park. While that’s understandable, fans are as well educated in 2013 as any time in the history of sports. If presented with moves that make sense for long-term success, they’ll buy in.

Now that the blueprint is laid out for Amaro, how can a plan actually be implemented? Well, to steal a word from the GM himself, the Phillies need to be creative. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki asked Amaro about what it will take to win big again in Philadelphia.

“We have to try to be creative, maybe a little more creative if we can,” said Amaro. 

It’s likely that Amaro was thinking about ways to creatively get better, not worse, in the short term. Yet the same thought process can be used to set the franchise up for long-term success, possibly even one similar to the run from 2005-2011. Over those seven years, Philadelphia averaged 92.2 wins per season.

In the past, Amaro Jr. has shown the creativity to swing major deals for Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and attempting (and failing) to garner a preemptive strike on a team-friendly Ryan Howard contract extension before the market on power hitters exploded.

Now, that same creativity is needed to put a competitive product on the field within the next few years for the city of Philadelphia. Outside of 29-year-old Cole Hamels and the recently re-signed Chase Utley, no member of the organization should be off-limits. 

If ace Cliff Lee could net a franchise-changing prospect like Texas‘ Jurickson Profar in a trade, it must be explored. If the just hired, via Hardball Talk, “stat-guy” in the front office doesn’t rate prospects like Jesse Biddle, Cody Asche or Maikel Franco as highly as Amaro, trading them for similar prospects can’t be ruled out. If Domonic Brown, Philadelphia’s lone 25-or-under All-Star-caliber hitter, is coveted by a contender, cashing him in for two or three potential future stars is wise.

With those assets, the Phillies sank in 2013. Without them, it’s hard to imagine a .500 season in 2014, but Amaro’s legacy in Philadelphia could be restored if the next group of young Phils become contenders in 2015 and beyond.

If the beleaguered general manger continues to try to extract contention out of a roster that has seen it’s window of contention slammed shut, the short and long-term future won’t be pretty for Phillies fans.

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Ranking Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 Prospects After 2013 Minor League Season

It has been a year of transition for the Philadelphia Phillies. For a franchise that made the postseason every year from 2007 through 2011, the 81-81 finish of 2012 was expected to be aberration, but instead, foreshadowed a difficult 2013.

Ryan Howard had another lost season to injury, legendary skipper Charlie Manuel was let go and Roy Halladay became a shell of the future Hall of Fame pitcher he was during his first two years in Philadelphia.

With a new manager, Ryne Sandberg, auditioning for a full-time role in 2014, the franchise will try to get younger but still stay competitive in the National League East.

If they can continue to get big production out of aging stars like Cliff Lee and Chase Utley, along with the underrated Cole Hamels, the farm system could breathe new life into a franchise likely in the midst of its first losing season since 2002.

When Philadelphia turns things back in the winning direction, many of the following names could play major roles.

Without further ado, a ranking of the Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 prospects.

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7 Reasons to Keep Watching the Phillies with an Eye on 2014

As the 61-73 Phillies head to Chicago for a Labor Day weekend series at Wrigley Field, there won’t be a postseason run to look forward to for a fan base that hasn’t experienced a losing season since 2002.

Instead of trying to get back into the National League playoff race, the Phillies will be looking towards the future. For the first time in a long time, it’s very, very uncertain.

With an interim manager, young players trying to prove their big league worth and major decisions coming on veterans in the offseason, the franchise is at a crossroads.

September might feel like spring training 2014 has come early. Sit back and enjoy watching the path back to contention unfold over the next month.

Here are seven things to watch in September, Phillies fans.

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Defining Charlie Manuel’s Managerial Legacy After Win No. 1,000

Thanks to the backing of a brilliant Cole Hamels performance and flashy, game-ending defensive play from rookie third baseman Cody Asche, the Philadelphia Phillies cooled down the red-hot Atlanta Braves on Monday night.

What would have normally passed for an innocuous August victory for a Phillies club destined for a losing season instead became a celebration of manager Charlie Manuel.

Philadelphia’s 53rd victory of 2013 wasn’t just another notch in the win column for an aging team, but rather the 1,000th career victory for Manuel as a skipper.

After the game, Manuel, speaking to Comcast Sports Net’s Jim Salisbury, was reflective of his career, especially the winning achieved in Philadelphia.

“It’s definitely quite an achievement,” Manuel said. “Like I told my players, they’re the ones that make it happen. They play. The two organizations I’ve been with, they’re the ones that get the players for me. That just goes to show you just how good they are. It’s hard for me to stand there and say I accept all of my accolades because the other people are definitely achieving those for you. That’s kind of how I look at it. I’m sure later on it probably means a lot more to me than right now. We’re still trying to win some games.”

The last sentence of that quote is unfortunately the story in Philadelphia now, as Manuel’s tenure could be coming to a close at the conclusion of the 2013 season.

As the Phillies chug along to a second consecutive season without postseason baseball, the Charlie Manuel Era can’t properly be broken down and evaluated based on the end, but rather must be reflective upon the totality of accomplishments in Philadelphia under his watch.

From the day he arrived until now, the Phillies have been one of the National League’s better teams. Starting in 2007, the team reeled off five consecutive National League East titles, advanced to three National League Championship Series, two World Series, and, of course, brought a World Series championship to Philadelphia in 2008.

When the roster was flush with prime-aged talent (think Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth before age and attrition), Manuel, the former hitting guru in Cleveland, presided over a relentless and punishing offensive attack.

Every night under Manuel’s watch, the Phillies were going to bring two attributes to the paying customers: Hard-hitting and inspired play.

From 2007-2011, the Phillies offense ranked second, seventh, sixth, 11th and 15th, respectively, in all of MLB in team OPS. Considering their place in the National League, without the luxury of a designated hitter, finishing in the top half of the sport in on-base plus slugging for five straight years is quite the accomplishment.

As the roster, specifically the offensive firepower, has taken a downturn over the years, the hard-hitting expectations have fallen precipitously, but the players have always respected and played hard for a manager that earned his keep in a city that can be notoriously tough on coaches.

It’s likely that Manuel’s last days in the Phillies dugout become uncomfortable for both the franchise and fanbase. Despite his accolades as a hitting coach and accountability from his 25-man roster, Manuel’s age (69) and in-game shortcomings make it highly unlikely that a rebuilding team keeps him in the fold to oversee the next era of Phillies baseball.

However, years from now, when the dust settles on the last era of Phillies baseball, Manuel should be recognized alongside the players, executives and coaches that made the 2007-2011 teams so dominant.

Charlie Manuel was the perfect manager for those teams. In a city that has been starved for professional championships, Manuel delivered what so few others couldn’t.

His place on the Phillies Wall of Fame should be secured.

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How the Pittsburgh Pirates Overtook the Phillies as PA’s Baseball Power

Tuesday evening’s battle of the Keystone State in Pittsburgh will pit one of the best teams in the National League against an under-.500 group with questions around the diamond and in the front office.

For years, making the distinction between the franchises described above was remarkably simple, but the tide has shifted in Pennsylvania. In both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the times have changed.

Heading into this week’s series, the Pittsburgh Pirates are pacing the National League, recently becoming the first team to reach 50 wins. Not only is the team on pace to blaze past the .500 mark for the first time in over two decades, but Clint Hurdle’s group is on pace to win 100 games.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ updated playoff odds, the Pirates have a 94.2 percent chance of playing postseason baseball this October:

Meanwhile, things in Philadelphia are a mess. Speculation around the future of Charlie Manuel has encircled the clubhouse, Ruben Amaro Jr. refuses to acknowledge the need to rebuild, and the roster looks inept and unable to compete for much beyond another 81-81 finish.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ updated playoff odds, the Phillies have a 2.1 percent chance of playing postseason baseball this October.

Remarkably, these roles were reversed recently. From 2007-2011, the Phillies were the class of the National League, winning at least 89 games in every season, reeling off five consecutive NL East titles, three trips to the National League Championship Series, two World Series appearances and, of course, a world championship in 2008.

On the opposite side of the state and baseball spectrum were the Pirates. Baseball’s laughingstock hasn’t produced a winning club since Barry Bonds suited up and played left field for the Bucs.

Despite promising starts in 2011 and 2012, the club fizzled in the second half, failing once again to crack the 81-win mark.

While it’s easy to believe that 2013 has been the season where baseball in Pennsylvania was turned upside down, the seeds for the rise of the Pirates and the fall of the Phillies have been in place for years.

Despite playing awful baseball against most of the league, Pittsburgh has actually been able to go toe-to-toe with the big, bad Phillies for years. Since 2007, Philadelphia has won just 21 of the 40 contests with their cross-state rival. That record has dropped to 10-13 since 2010.

Although the Phillies are down now, they haven’t been bad for a long time. Last season, despite failing to live up to expectations, they finished at .500. In 2011, the team set a franchise record for wins with 102 in the regular season. But the tipping point in the Pennsylvania rivalry may have occurred that summer, in spite of the 30 victories that separated the teams in the NL standings.

Over the last three seasons, the respective win totals for each franchise has resembled stocks plummeting and rising simultaneously.

Philadelphia: 102, 81, 39
Pittsburgh: 72, 79, 51

Despite the gigantic discrepancy in 2011 victories, it’s not crazy to think that the Pirates’ three-year win total will match or exceed Philadelphia’s by the end of this season.

The summer of 2011 may feel like ages ago for these respective fans, but it was just two years ago that the tides shifted.

Baseball fans may not have read the writing on the wall, but the Phillies’ window for winning another title was slamming shut. The image of Ryan Howard writhing in pain after rupturing his Achilles tendon was the straw that broke the back of Philadelphia’s dominance.

Despite 102 wins, signs of decline in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Roy Oswalt and the intense workload for Roy Halladay created a perfect storm that would rob the Phillies of their ability heading into 2012.

Meanwhile, the 2011 Pirates endured a disastrous August and September in the wake of a blown call at home plate during an epic late-July affair in Atlanta.

As Pittsburgh fell from first place to 72-90, the baseball world forgot about the Pirates once again when the calender turned to autumn. But that masked the bigger point in Pittsburgh: In Clint Hurdle’s first year at the helm, in which he justly received NL Manager of the Year votes, the team improved by 15 wins from 2010.

The emergence of Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez’s first big league cup of coffee, the drafting of Gerrit Cole with the top overall pick, Philadelphia’s failure to recognize what it had with Jason Grilli in Triple-A and and Hurdle’s attitude engulfed the franchise, setting the team up for another run at .500 in 2012 and for its leap here in 2013.

It’s likely that the Phillies aren’t this bad and the Pirates aren’t this good, but heading into this week’s series in Pittsburgh, one thing is clear for baseball fans in the state of Pennsylvania: The team to watch resides on the west side of the state.

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