Top Candidates to Replace Charlie Manuel If the Phillies Fire Him

Sooner than later, the Charlie Manuel era will end in Philadelphia.

With a contract that expires after the season, a mediocre roster, expectations out of whack in a city clinging to former greatness and the specter of a fire sale between now and July 31, the last few months of the 2013 Phillies season may be ugly.

Of course, that would be the exception for this group in Philadelphia considering how well the team has played in the second half of seasons under Manuel.

Yet, it’s time to accept the exception to the rule coming to fruition for a team that is heading backwards fast.

When Ruben Amaro and the ownership group in Philadelphia decide to move in a different direction, one candidate seems to stand out above the rest, but the interviews and process will be riveting for a franchise trying to replace the most successful manager in their history.

Here are the top candidates for the job to replace Charlie Manuel as the next manager of the Philadelphia Phillies.

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Is it Time for the Charlie Manuel-Philadelphia Phillies Relationship to End?

From the moment Charlie Manuel stepped into the dugout as manager of the Philadelphia Phillies through the end of the 2011 National League Division Series loss at the hands of the eventual world champion St. Louis Cardinals, the franchise was relevant to an extent rarely witnessed in the history of the organization.

The former Indians manager, long-time hitting guru and down-to-earth West Virginian had a style that worked: His players played hard, worked hard, and, most importantly, won baseball games.

From 2006-2011, the Phillies were the class of the National League. Over those six seasons, Manuel guided the team to an average of 93 wins per season, five consecutive NL East crowns, three appearances in the NLCS, two trips to the World Series and a parade down Broad Street in Philadelphia after the 2008 World Series victory.

Of course, that was then.

Now, to put it bluntly, the Phillies, led by the same manager that will one day be inducted into the franchise’s Wall of Fame, are an awful baseball team.

After dropping two of three games at home last weekend to the equally awful Mets, the 2013 Phillies sit at 36-40, but actually are lucky to have that record. With a run differential of minus-58, the only two teams to have been outscored by more runs this season reside in Miami and Houston.

The franchise is desperately in need of a reboot, should consider trading any and all veteran assets at the trade deadline and is teetering on fielding an unwatchable group in the second half of the season.

For all the good that Manuel presided over during the early days of his tenure, it’s turned bad now. In the aftermath of another disappointing series, the manager questioned whether it can be turned around, knowing full well it probably can’t.

The roster is decrepit, farm system is showing little hope of providing help and expectations are out of whack. To expect Manuel to “shake things up” to achieve results, as WIP host/reporter Howard Eskin alluded to after a loss on Friday night, is ridiculous.

Of course, it’s almost as ridiculous as Manuel’s reaction, threat and childish behavior.

Baseball managers are as good as the hands they are dealt. Manuel looked good when his team was crushing the baseball because he had healthy and prime-aged hitters like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth destroying opposing pitchers.

That same manager looks much, much worse when those stars are questioning his tactics, older, hurt, gone or replaced with below-average and fringe major leaguers.

It’s time, whether immediately or in the aftermath of the 2013 campaign, to remove Manuel from the drivers seat in Philadelphia. Not because he can’t manage talented players, but because he’s 69 years old, doesn’t have the patience or time to manage through a rebuilding process and can’t escape the weight of expectations that surround the franchise since the days of his early success.

Ultimately, the team’s play is much more of a reflection on general manager Ruben Amaro than it is on Manuel, but of the two, Amaro is seen as the one who will be around for the long haul.

At some point, the team will have to get younger and infuse cheap, dynamic talent to the everyday roster. The job of guiding that young talent should go to a manger on the upswing, with youth and communication skills playing almost as big of a role as pitching changes and batting orders.

Charlie Manuel was a good manager of an excellent baseball team. He’s the same manager now, albeit with a team that has considerably less talent.

The Manuel-Philadelphia relationship is coming to an end sooner than later. Eventually, both sides will agree that it’s time to turn the page.

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Stock Up, Stock Down for Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 Prospects for Week 10

The Philadelphia Phillies represent a franchise at the crossroads of contention, impending rebuilding and attempting to pry the window for postseason baseball open for one more run this summer.

At 27-30, with a run differential of -49, it’s not looking good for the team that came into the 2012 season with a run of five consecutive National League East crowns.

That’s why their farm system, specifically the crown jewels of their minor league affiliates, must be looked at critically over the next few months.

While Ruben Amaro and the Phils’ brass must decide if the 2013 team can compete for a postseason berth, assessing the roles of the young players in the system for the 2014 and 2015 teams may be even more vital.

Of course, this list could be amended at any time, assuming Philadelphia uses their trade commodities to add talent into the system.

For now, we dive into a stock watch for the Top 10 prospects in the system.

All stats courtesy MiLB.com and valid through the end of play on June 2.

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Mapping out the Path to a Blockbuster Cliff Lee Deadline Trade

The 2013 Phillies are off to a difficult start. At 6-10, on the heels of an injury-plagued, disappointing 81-81 finish in 2012, concern is mounting in Philadelphia.

While the problems of offense, specifically on-base percentage, Roy Halladay’s decline and the future of manager Charlie Manuel will take center stage over the next few months, don’t forget the best player on the 25-man roster: Cliff Lee.

Regardless of how dominant Lee is in 2013, it might not be enough to drag Philadelphia back into the postseason. In reality, it might not be enough to garner a winning record. While the headlines in Atlanta on Wednesday revolved around Braves broadcaster Chip Carey’s “mother’s basement” comments in regard to Baseball Prospectus’ updated playoff odds, the real story should be how meek Philadelphia’s start has their current outlook for October baseball.

On Wednesday afternoon, holding a 6-8 record at the time, Baseball Prospectus gave the Phillies only a 25.1 percent chance of playing October baseball. They’ve lost twice more since that graphic, falling to 6-10. As you can imagine, the odds are rising in their favor.

While general manager Ruben Amaro has delayed the inevitable rebuilding process up to this point, a change in Philadelphia is on the horizon.

At some point, fan support will dwindle, Atlanta and Washington could pull away and moves will need to be made to ensure a more competitive outfit in 2014 and beyond. While putting Cole Hamels, 29, on the trading block would ensure the highest possible return, there’s little chance the franchise would move a player they just committed over $140 million to last season.

Instead, look to Cliff Lee’s dominance, trade rumors from last summer and pitching-hungry teams this July and August for the most likely domino to fall. In order to rebuild a barren farm system, Lee’s durable, strike-throwing arm may be moved.

Considering the prowess of the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals, it looks as though Philadelphia’s most realistic route back to contention and postseason baseball in 2013 is through the second wild-card avenue. It’s only April, but the glut of quality rosters across the National League make it hard to believe that these Phillies, even with Lee and Hamels, can get to the 87-90 wins it will likely take to snag one of those spots. Between Los Angeles, St. Louis and Arizona, the second-tier teams in the NL Central and West are deeper, younger and built for the long haul.

The most intriguing part of potential Cliff Lee trades this summer: value in the eye of the beholder.

If Philadelphia falls out of contention and looks to be proactive with Lee’s value, he can be marketed to many different organizations due to the Phillies’ high payroll structure and their need for high-end prospects.

For example: If, say, the New York Yankees, long-time admirers and chasers of Lee’s left arm, decide to make a run at him, Philadelphia could offset its payroll concerns by paying a large chunk of the $87.5 million he’s guaranteed through 2016. In return, New York could supply Philadelphia with some of the best prospects in its organization.

On the other hand, Philadelphia could rid itself of Lee’s current and future cost by allowing a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers, with a seemingly endless supply of payroll, to take the full brunt of Lee’s deal in return for middling or poor prospects.

While that wouldn’t solve Philadelphia’s issue in the minor league ranks, it would allow them to re-invest that payroll in future free-agent markets, potentially filling multiple positions. It’s the approach the Boston Red Sox took last winter in re-investing the payroll they sent to Los Angeles last August.

The odds against Philadelphia are growing by the day. Due to Lee’s large contract and Philadelphia’s dueling needs and payroll prowess, suitors can come from almost any direction if the lefty hits the market.

Of course, the last step in the puzzle would be Lee’s blessing.

As part of the free agent-contract awarded to Lee in December of 2010, there is a list of 21 teams that Lee can’t be moved to without his consent.

Considering his dramatic return to Philadelphia, multiple moves around the country from Cleveland to Philadelphia to Seattle to Texas—all within a few years—and stories about placing his family near the best hospitals, it won’t be easy to gain the blessing in order to complete a trade.

Yet it won’t be impossible.

Lee is 34 years old. Despite his reputation as a great big-game pitcher, he has yet to hoist a World Series trophy. In theory, the return to Philadelphia prior to the 2011 season was seen as the final stepping stone to achieving that goal. The quarter of Lee-Hamels-Halladay-Roy Oswalt was set to deliver the Phillies their second World Series within five years.

Of course, it hasn’t materialized. Considering the age of the roster, the window is closing fast.

Lee has dazzled fans, won on the biggest stage and brought home a Cy Young award.

If broached with an offer to move to a contender, save Philadelphia payroll and/or bring them back a brighter future and collect his hefty salary, it’s a move all parties would have to consider later this summer.

Are the 2013 Phillies a contender in the National League? Comment below, follow me on Twitter or “Like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball!

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Selecting the Philadelphia Phillies’ All-Time Dream Team

Prior to the current run of sustained success in Philadelphia, putting together an all-time dream team for the Philadelphia Phillies would have likely resulted in a satire piece featuring luminaries such as Robert Person, Steve Jeltz and Rico Brogna.

Of course, times have changed. National League East titles, playoff appearances, NL MVPs, star acquisitions, a new ballpark and, of course, a World Series championship have all contributed to change the perception of the Phillies franchise.

Ironically, it’s also why the fans are struggling in 2013 to come to grips with a window of opportunity that is closing. Not only are the memories of winning fresh, but the contributors from that group are still with the ballclub.

Here is my take on selecting the Philadelphia Phillies’ All-Time Dream Team.

 

Catcher

Carlos Ruiz (2006-present, 106 OPS+, 1x All-Star, 15.2 WAR): Chooch wasn’t the first to come to mind, but his place on a World Series championship team, starting for the 2008 champs, and  improving bat vaulted him above Darren Daulton and Mike Lieberthal. His 15.2 WAR lies below Daulton, but Ruiz has accomplished the feat in just over six big league seasons. It took Daulton well over a decade to give that kind of value to the organization. 

 

First baseman 

Ryan Howard (2004-present, 135 OPS+, 3x All-Star, 2006 NL MVP, 18.1 WAR): While it’s easy to be critical of an aging, declining Howard right now, don’t forget the player he was when emerging from an overextended stay in the minors. From 2006-2009, Howard was one of, if not the, most feared hitters in the game.

Howard ranks second on the all-time Phillies franchise lists for slugging percentage and home runs. Anyone who cranks out nearly 200 home runs in four seasons, including 58 in 2006, deserves a spot on this team. 

 

Second baseman 

Chase Utley (2003-present, 126 OPS+, 5x All-Star, 55.2 WAR): During Howard’s MVP season and home run barrage, Utley’s Cooperstown-caliber play next to the Big Piece on the right side of the infield was lost in the national shuffle. In Philadelphia, they’ve always seemed to understand the privilege of watching Utley play.

Among the all-time Phillies ranks, Utley is fourth in WAR and a good bet to catch and pass Richie Ashburn for third sometime this summer. If his knees and hips hold up, Philadelphia will face an interesting dilemma in deciding on a contract offer for Utley next winter. 

 

Third baseman 

Mike Schmidt (1972-1989, 147 OPS+, 12x All-Star, 3x NL MVP, 106.5 WAR): Michael Jack Schmidt wasn’t just the easy choice for greatest Phillies third baseman in history, he’s arguably the greatest player to man the hot corner in the history of the game.

The 548 home runs and Gold Glove defense equals a player whom Baseball-Reference.com credits with more value than all but 25 players in the history of baseball. Among those with less career WAR than Schmidt: Randy Johnson, Joe Morgan, Cal Ripken and Albert Pujols. 

 

Shortstop 

Jimmy Rollins (2000-present, 97 OPS+, 3x All-Star, 2007 NL MVP, 42.0 WAR): As J-Roll continues to display exemplary durability and athletic ability through the years, his climb up Philadelphia’s all-time lists are inevitable.

The greatest Phillies shortstop in history also will present baseball historians with a more difficult task when his career ends: voting yes or no to induction into Cooperstown. What once seemed like an easy debate, or, in other words, there wasn’t a shot, now has become an interesting topic. Either way, his leadership, durability and all-around game will land him in the Phillies Hall of Fame.

 

Outfield

Richie Ashburn (1948-1959, 111 OPS+, 4x All-Star, 57.2 WAR): The 1995 Hall of Fame inductee should need no introduction to Philadelphia faithful. Ashburn debuted and starred before his time, becoming one of the most disciplined hitters of the ’50s on his way to four different seasons of .400-plus on-base percentage marks and two 100-plus walk seasons.

Despite power numbers that were pedestrian (29 career home runs), Ashburn’s ability to get on base would make him one of the most sought after players in the game today. On this dream team, he’s the natural choice to leadoff.

 

 

Chuck Klein (1928-1933, 1936-1938, 1939, 1940-1944; 139 OPS+, 2x All-Star, 34.9 WAR): Despite four separate stints in Philadelphia, Klein made his mark on the record books. While playing in an offensive era surely boosted his numbers, the five-year run between 1929-1933 (1.050 OPS, 1,982 total bases) are video-game numbers in a pre-video-game world.

 

 

Bobby Abreu (1998-2006, 139 OPS+, 2x All-Star, 47.0 WAR): Before you scoff at the notion of Bob Kelly Abreu as an all-time Phillie and member of this dream team, please drop the narrative that he was a “losing” player and the team won in the years after he left simply because he was traded to New York.

Instead, consider these facts: Abreu posted a .400-plus on-base percentage in eight out of his nine seasons in Philadelphia, posted six 20-20 campaigns and received MVP votes in more than half of his years with the club. Like it or not, the guy was a tremendous all-around talent.

 

Starting pitchers 

1. Steve Carlton (1972-1986, 120 ERA+, 7x All-Star, 4x Cy Young winner, 64.6 WAR): It starts and ends with Lefty at the top of this dream team rotation. Of all the accomplishments in a Phillies uniform, Carlton’s 1972 season stands out. Coming over in a lopsided, to put it mildly, trade for Rick Wise, Carlton’s contract dispute in St. Louis turned out to be Philadelphia’s big gain.

There have been many great individual pitching seasons in baseball history, but Carlton’s 12.1 WAR in 1972 ranks among the greatest performances ever. Considering the team record of 59-97, Carlton’s 27-10 record is eye-opening. If he was given better talent to pitch behind, it’s not crazy to think Lefty could have won 35 games that season. 

 

2. Robin Roberts (1948-1961, 114 ERA+, 7x All-Star, 69.7 WAR): While the philosophy behind voting for individual awards has changed over the years and decades, it’s worth noting that Roberts placed in the Top 10 for NL MVP voting during five of his seasons in Philadelphia. Voters may not have been in tune with wins above replacement in the mid-’50s, but six straight years of 300-plus innings transcends advanced metrics and baseball research. 

 

3. Curt Schilling (1992-2000, 126 ERA+, 3x All-Star, 36.8 WAR): The results of the 2013 Hall of Fame voting aside, Schilling was one of the best pitchers in the history of baseball, let alone the Philadelphia Phillies.

Of course, some in Philadelphia would argue that many of his best seasons came after leaving. That’s true, but don’t discount what he did while there. From 1992-1999, Schilling’s eight full seasons in Philadelphia, he ranked 11th in ERA+, fifth in strikeouts, third in complete games and second in strikeout-to-walk ratio.

 

 

4. Cole Hamels (2006-present, 124 ERA+, 3x All-Star, 2008 World Series MVP, 28.7 WAR): Considering his relative youth and career on the horizon, let’s focus on Hamels among every pitcher in baseball since debuting in 2006. Over that span, the lifetime Phil ranks sixth in strikeouts, 11th in IP, ninth in ERA+ and fourth in K/9. His dominance is only just beginning, folks.

 

 

5. Cliff Lee (2009, 2011-present; 142 ERA+, 1x All-Star, 15.3 WAR): Surprised? If you’ve truly watched Lee evolve into one of the most consistently dominant arms in the game, you shouldn’t be. Throw out the W-L record of 2012. Instead, focus on what he brings to the mound each and every time: otherworldly strike-throwing ability.

In the history of baseball, Lee ranks sixth in career strikeout-to-walk ratio with a mark of 3.68. Ironically, Phillies history is littered throughout the top five. Curt Schilling is the best ever. Roy Halladay, who just missed out on this list, ranks fifth.

 

Closer 

Brad Lidge (2008-2011, 113 ERA+, 1x All-Star, 1.7 WAR): When it comes to Brad Lidge, throw out the middle and the end. When assessing which relief pitcher in Phillies history belongs on their dream team, Lidge’s perfect 2008 season, capped off by striking out Eric Hinkse to seal the World Series, is all the matters. Outside of Mariano Rivera, every closer is violate. Somehow, someway, Lidge found a way to channel his ability into one storybook season.

 

*Advanced stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

 

Agree? Disagree? Who would be on your all-time dream team in Philadelphia? Comment below, follow me on Twitter or “Like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball!

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Early-Season Philadelphia Phillies Story Lines to Follow Most Closely

The landscape of baseball in Philadelphia changed quickly and swiftly when the Phillies began their run of postseason trips, World Series appearances and of course, a parade down Broad Street in November of 2008.

For years, sports talker WIP was filtered with daily calls about the Eagles’ direction, fans lamenting the lack of clock management from Andy Reid and the big-game failures of Donovan McNabb.

Attending a game at Veterans Stadium or the new Citizens Bank Park in the early 2000’s was an open invitation to participate in E-A-G-L-E-S chants rather than breaking down David Bell’s swing.

As the fanbase emerged from a long, cold winter, so did the spotlight. When things are good, the fans will fill the stands and love their Phillies.

When they are bad, as they may be in 2013, the scrutiny will know no bounds.

Here are early-season story lines, both positive and negative, to follow most closely early this season.

 

 

Roy Halladay’s battle with decline

The signs of decline and waning confidence are impossible to miss when assessing Roy Halladay early on in 2013.

If Doc can’t locate his fastball, fix his mental block, make hitters uncomfortable in the box and continue to strike out hitters at a high rate, the Phillies are in trouble every time he takes the mound.

And make no mistake, Halladay will be taking the mound every fifth day (via Todd Zolecki MLBlogs Network). In fact, Charlie Manuel compared his loyalty towards Doc with what the team suffered through with Brad Lidge in 2009.

In other words, unless there is an injury, Halladay will make his scheduled starts throughout the season.

If he rebounds, Philadelphia will be rewarded with their patience. If he doesn’t, the team will suffer.

 

 

Chase Utley’s return to star status

From 2005-2010, Chase Utley put together one of the greatest offensive stretches for a second baseman in baseball history.

His .911 OPS and 133 OPS+ wasn’t just good; it was spectacular.

Second baseman, catchers, shortstops and center fielders are often judged by different offensive criteria. They’re not expected to hit like corner infielders and outfielders.

Isolating Utley’s ranks in comparison to other second baseman would make him look good; doing it against every hitter in baseball makes him look great.

The 133 OPS+ ranked 18th overall during that time frame. The .911 OPS was 12th.

Early on in 2013, after battling knee and hip ailments, Utley’s swing and torque in the box look like they did during his Hall of Fame-caliber seasons.

 

Cliff Lee‘s excellence and potential trade market

As Lee showed once again on Tuesday night, he’s still a tremendous pitcher. Throw out the substandard win-loss record of 2012—really throw out all W-L records out when assessing pitchers—and focus on the strike-throwing machine Lee continues to be for Philadelphia.

The 34-year-old lefty is probably a good bet to remain the best pitcher in Philadelphia through July. At that point, he may have a new address.

It’s no secret that Ruben Amaro Jr. shopped Lee and his hefty future price tag last July and August. If the Phillies are out of the race at that point this summer, it may be easier to make the move and clear future salary off the books.

The better Lee pitches over the next few months, the more leverage Amaro has in a possible deal. The franchise can either eat money and receive top prospects in return, expediting a rebuild, or convince a contender to take on the remainder of his excess contract.

 

Ryan Howard’s impotent bat

If not for Roy Halladay’s struggles, Ryan Howard’s swing would be the main topic of conversation in Philadelphia today. Despite his first long ball of the year on Tuesday night against the Mets, Howard’s early-season numbers are continuing a precipitous down trend that can’t be ignored.

The following are Howard’s year-by-year on-base plus slugging percentages from 2009-present:

2009: .931
2010: .859
2011: .835
2012: .718
2013: .464

Age, defensive shifts and injury have been the excuses over the past few seasons. Small sample size is the current defensive mechanism for the Howard supporters.

As all of Philadelphia will eventually realize, it’s not 2006 or 2007 anymore. That Ryan Howard is likely to never return.

That doesn’t mean he can’t be a decent or good slugger for Charlie Manuel, but he’s likely never going to be worth the $85 million he’s guaranteed to earn from 2014-2016, including a $10 million buyout prior to 2017.

 

Charlie Manuel’s future

Uncomfortable is the only word to describe the Phillies’ current system of managerial apprenticeship. It’s widely assumed that Ryne Sandberg, the one-time Phillie who got away, is the apple of the front office eye and the future manager in Philadelphia.

That’s what makes his inclusion on Charlie Manuel’s coaching staff so strange this season. Factor in Manuel’s desire to continue managing, perturbed attitude this spring and lack of contract beyond 2013, and there’s a situation that bears watching in Philadelphia.

If Philadelphia struggles, would management consider a switch from Manuel to Sandberg in midseason?

Would a big season cause Manuel to ask for, and receive, a contract extension, virtually costing the Phillies organization Sandberg for the second time?

Will the media and fans, vocal in their displeasure of Manuel as an in-game strategist (via charliesmanuel.org), call for his job if the gaffes continue?

Stability has been one of Philadelphia’s biggest attributes since Manuel walked in the door in 2005.

It may soon be one of their biggest question marks.

 

Which Phillies’ story line are you watching most closely?

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4 Things We Have Already Learned About Roy Halladay in 2013

Roy Halladay came into the 2013 season with question marks surrounding his performance as a co-ace in the Philadelphia Phillies rotation.

Through two awful, uncharacteristic starts, Doc is leaving fans and analysts with more questions than answers. His 14.73 ERA isn’t just unsightly; it’s unfathomable.

That is, of course, until you watch and dissect what he’s doing or, more aptly, not doing on the mound.

It’s early, but Doc’s season and career have reached a crossroads. For the Phillies to rebound from the disappointment of an 81-81 campaign in 2012, Halladay’s performance is crucial.

As he searches for answers, trends in his performance and approach can be spotted.

Here are four things we have already learned about Roy Halladay in 2013.

 

1. He doesn’t trust his fastball

Percentage of time Roy Halladay has thrown his fastball since arriving in Philly, 2010-present, year-by-year: 37.4, 22.6, 19.4, 17.9. Yikes.

The main concern around Doc has been velocity, but surviving in the 87-89 mph range can happen for a smart, efficient pitcher if he trusts himself to locate that pitch on the corners and down in the zone.

Those numbers, via the indispensable Baseball Info Solutions, show a pitcher who is more comfortable throwing breaking and off-speed stuff, regardless of the count or batter.

Much of Doc’s greatness stems from getting ahead in the count. That’s something he’s failing to do at an alarming rate early in the season.

Last week, Halladay only threw 57.9 percent of his pitches for strikes in Atlanta. In 378 career starts, he’s only posted a lower percentage in 15 of those starts. On Monday, he got ahead with first-pitch strikes to only 10 of the 22 hitters faced. No matter how good his secondary stuff is, Halladay must get ahead with his fastball to survive.

When he throws the fastball, he lacks command and falls behind. Thus, he’s abandoning the pitch almost entirely, narrowing the options for hitters to focus on.

 

2. Mental, not physical, issues are the problem

That’s the explanation Halladay gave to reporters in Philadelphia on Monday night. If that is the case, the bigger issue might be Doc reverting into the pre-star form he showed in Toronto.

When Halladay lost the strike zone, was unable to retire hitters with any regularity and became mentally lost as a young pitcher, Toronto sent him down to Low-A ball. That’s the story fans have heard over and over.

What’s less publicized is the guidance provided by the late sports psychologist Harvey Dorfman.

Halladay mentioned a quote that Dorfman relayed to him when assessing his mental issues on the mound.

“Harvey used to tell me when you try to catch a bird, if you’re flailing at it, trying to grab for it, you’re never going to catch it,” Halladay said to CSN Philly. “You have to hold your hands out and let it land in your hands. It’s the same way with pitching. You have to stick to your routine, stick to your program and let it come to you.”

It’s clear that one of the smartest and most cerebral pitchers in baseball is over-thinking his approach on the mound.

 

3. Opposing batters are no longer uncomfortable in the box

Usually terms like “uncomfortable” are reserved for power pitchers and hard-throwers. For example, Matt Harvey, the young, ascending Mets right-hander, made the Phillies batters look uncomfortable all night long.

In his prime, despite never possessing an overpowering fastball like Randy Johnson or Justin Verlander, Halladay had the ability to make the box batters enter his domain—intimidating for hitters to step in and never a place to feel comfortable.

Due to his inconsistency, lack of confidence and an even further drop in velocity, that feeling is gone.

In the fourth inning of Monday night’s game with New York, Matt Harvey, the opposing pitcher, worked a nine-pitch at-bat. To put that in perspective, Halladay has twice thrown complete games with less than 90 total pitches. If Matt Harvey can battle and foul pitches off, real hitters can tee-off.

It took 95 pitches for Doc to get through 3.1 IP in Atlanta. Monday night, 99 were needed to retire 12 batters. At this rate, we’ll never see another complete game from Halladay again.

 

4. An encouraging sign: Halladay is still missing bats at a high rate

As with everything else, this should be prefaced with the following words: Small. Sample. Size.

That being said, Halladay does have one thing going for him early on this season: strikeouts.

In fact, his 12 strikeouts in 7.1 IP is good enough for a rate of 14.73 per nine innings. Never known as a strikeout pitcher—career average of 6.94 per nine—Halladay is generating swings and missing with two strikes using his off-speed stuff.

Can this rate continue? It would be highly, highly unlikely. Even if it came down to around eight or nine Ks per nine, Doc will be in a better position to succeed. For all that will be made about his unsightly ERA, his current xFIP (4.04), which factors in K-rate and league average FB/HR percentage, isn’t horrible.

To reclaim success or “re-invent” himself, Halladay might need to strike hitters out at a higher rate. During his first start in Atlanta, 90 percent of his outs were via strikeout. The 10 batters who didn’t post a K went 6-for-7 with two home runs.

While the notion of a declining pitcher striking more batters out as age creeps up and velocity ticks down may seem strange, take a look at what Andy Pettitte did last year for the New York Yankees.

Despite the lowest average fastball velocity (87.8) of his long career, Pettitte struck out more batters per inning (8.24) than in any season since 2004. In fact, that number represented the highest strikeout rate of his entire career.

Halladay is in decline, but it doesn’t mean he can’t generate strikeouts.

What is your level of concern with Roy Halladay?

Comment below, follow me on Twitter @JoeGiglioSports or “Like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Spring Training Grades for Every Top Prospect

In a bit of a spring training twist, the Philadelphia Phillies‘ minor league system has become a major story.

No, their low organizational ranking isn’t the talking point this time.

Instead, their Triple-A affiliate, the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, have introduced an interesting concept to sell tickets.

Meanwhile down in Florida, some of those IronPigs, future IronPigs and one day Phillies are about to complete a full spring training regimen in full sight of Ruben Amaro and Charlie Manuel.

Here are spring training grades for the top Philly prospects.

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Mapping out a Successful Rebuilding Plan for the Philadelphia Phillies

Considering the overwhelming success of the Philadelphia Phillies franchise since 2007, it’s easy to understand why general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and ownership would try to squeeze one more year of contention out of an aging group.

Wrong, but understandable.

Injuries and uneven performances from past stars were to blame for the disappointing 81-81 finish in 2012. If older players bounce back, new additions surprise and Washington isn’t ready for the bull’s eye on their back, it’s possible that Philadelphia can turn back the clock and raise a division championship once again.

It’s more likely that a rebuilding effort will be expedited between now and the start of the 2014 season.

If the former NL East juggernaut intends to reclaim the throne from Washington and Atlanta, they need to embrace change, specifically in the mindset of roster building.

Before suggesting any specific moves, the stale, old mentality of roster building must be removed from the Citizens Bank Park offices.

Sabermetrics aren’t the only way to build a baseball team in 2013, but they must be part of the process in every single roster decision. While the “Tyranny of Acronyms” has turned off some old-school thinkers, making them believe advanced statistics are for nerds, the advanced stats should be viewed as tools used to make better decisions.

As late as May 2012, members of the Phillies brass brushed off the notion of using sabermetrics to evaluate players.

“I honestly can’t tell you the last time WAR or VORP or any of those things were brought up in a conversation,” assistant GM Scott Proefrock told Bob Brookover of The Philadelphia Inquirer. “We’re aware of them, and we understand what they are. It’s just not something we find relevant.”

In a possible sign of softening that stance, Philadelphia reached an agreement with ScoutAdvisor Corporation last November, bringing advance scouting and analytical technology into the fold for the 2013 season.

Of course, that didn’t stop the franchise from acquiring Michael Young, Delmon Young, Mike Adams, Chad Durbin or John Lannan this offseason. All have some level of upside, but all come with red flags in terms of age, health or consistent production.

In short, they were brought in to help squeeze one more year of contention out of an aging roster. At some point, the front office must read the writing on the wall: The offense is trending downward at an alarming rate and the top-heavy pitching staff may no longer be great enough to carry the load. 

The following chart shows Philadelphia’s OPS (on-base plus slugging) and runs scored rankings over the past six year across all of Major League Baseball:

Year	.OPS	Rank	Runs	Rank
2007	.812	Second	892	Second
2008	.770	Seventh	799	T-Eighth
2009	.781	Sixth	820	Fourth
2010	.745	11th	772	Seventh
2011	.717	15th	713	13th
2012	.716	17th	684	19th

Between a declining offense and question marks in the rotation, it’s time for Philadelphia to change the status quo.

Much like moving Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence last July, moves can be made to improve the future of the franchise.

Recognizing the importance of analytics and the ceiling of this current group can open the door to a few moves that could pay dividends in 2014 and beyond. That could mean an openness to moving Chase Utley at the trade deadline, playing Domonic Brown full-time and giving young potential contributors like Tommy Joseph, Cody Asche and Antonio Bastardo bigger roles as the summer moves on.

CBS Sports’ Scott Miller breaks down the 2013 Phillies:

Utley was the heart and soul of the 2008 World Series champions. His .911 OPS from 2004-09 is one of the greatest runs a second baseman has ever seen. Unfortunately, those days are behind him. If he can stay healthy and produce at a valuable level, Amaro should consider moving him to a contender at the deadline, à la the Beltran-for-Wheeler trade executed in New York a few years back.

Domonic Brown has never been a Charlie Manuel favorite, but his stellar spring training—and lack of other outfield options—may lead to his first full season in the big leagues. Will a career .373 minor league OBP translate in the majors? It’s time for Philadelphia to finally find out.

Cody Asche is the “third baseman of the future” in the Philadelphia system. Antonio Bastardo has the ability to be a high-leverage, lockdown reliever. Tommy Joseph brings a power bat from behind the plate. As the summer goes on—barring All-Star-level campaigns from Michael Young. Mike Adams and Carlos Ruiz—both need to be given more opportunity on the big stage.

Asche could hit his way to the bigs and past Michael Young into the lineup. Bastardo‘s numbers and strikeout ability scream “closer of the future” rather than left-handed specialist or seventh-inning man. Joseph’s power bat and future should be put ahead of the aging impending free agent Carlos Ruiz.

If the Phillies go years without competing for another postseason spot, it will be from stubbornness rather than a lack of options.

The past is over for this Phillies group. Fans may not love the idea of building and thinking for the future, but it’s the best way to proceed.

Another era of winning baseball can be around the corner. Forward thinking, shrewd moves and understanding the potential of the current roster are the keys to Phillies fans seeing it in the near future.

Joe Giglio is an MLB Lead Writer covering the NL and AL East. Follow him on Twitter @JoeGiglioSports.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Roy Halladay’s Career Innings Mark Suggests Doom for Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies co-ace Roy Halladay suffered through a rough exhibition outing on Tuesday against Detroit, surrendering home runs to Ramon Santiago and Don Kelly, walking four batters, and barely popping radar guns with 84-85 MPH fastballs.

Coming off arguably the worst season of his career, there is a sense of concern in Philadelphia. While speculating on potential injury has become in vogue, it’s likely that Roy Halladay is simply running out of bullets in his right arm. He may not be done, but former pitchers in his class—starters in baseball history with at least 2,600 IP and spectacular ERA+ marks—have been accustomed to dramatic dips in career performance around the innings mark Halladay has presently reached.

Using Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index and sorting by adjusted ERA, only 159 pitchers since 1901 have reached the 2,600 IP mark. Of course, that doesn’t truly tell the story of Halladay’s dominance. Of those 159, only 10 starters in the history of baseball have a better career ERA+ mark than Halladay. For the purposes of this piece, we’re ruling out those that haven’t debuted in the past 50 years.

Using those parameters, the five pitchers most similar to Halladay in terms of innings pitched and ERA+ are Pedro Martinez (154+), Roger Clemens (143+), Randy Johnson (135+), Greg Maddux (132+), and Curt Schilling (127+).

Heading into the 2013 season, Halladay has thrown 2,687.1 IP over 377 big league starts, including 66 complete games. His career adjusted ERA of 134 places him just below Martinez, Clemens, and Johnson. His mark is slightly better than Maddux and Schilling.

Of course, the final numbers for those future Hall of Famers are finished products. Halladay is still pitching. Unlike win total, his ERA+ is likely to only trend down as his career unfolds. As will his effectiveness.

Those five former stars weren’t necessarily done when they hit the innings mark Halladay sits at heading into 2013, but there’s a direct correlation toward their careers before and after comparable innings. In other words, they hit a wall. The same wall Halladay might have reached.

Through the first 2,513 IP of Pedro Martinez’s career, his ERA+ was 166. Afterwards, it was 94, or in other words, below league average. He pitched to a 4.58 ERA over 314 IP to round out his career.

Through the first 2,776 IP of Roger Clemens’ career, his ERA+ was 114. Afterwards, it was 140. Of all the names listed, he was able to keep his performance the most level through the years.

Through the first 2,748 IP of Randy Johnson’s career, his ERA+ was 141. It was 125 beyond that number, including a 5.00 ERA for the Yankees in 2006.

Through the first 2,849 IP of Greg Maddux’s career, his ERA+ was 146. It was 117 beyond that mark.

Through the first 2,812 IP of Curt Schilling’s career, his ERA+ was 131. He dipped to 110+ for the rest of his career, including a stint as a reliever in Boston.

In 2012, Halladay saw his ERA rise over two runs, and a shoulder injury landed him on the disabled list. His K/9 mark dipped to 7.60, its lowest since 2008. According to FanGraphs, his average fastball velocity fell to 90.6 MPH, the lowest mark of his big league career.

It’s widely assumed that the Phillies are the third best team in the National League East behind Washington and Atlanta. That doesn’t mean they can’t be a postseason threat, though. If you believe in the former National League juggernaut, it’s likely because of stellar starting pitching.

Last year may have been an aberration for Halladay and the Phillies. 

Or it may have been the beginning of the end for a Hall of Fame starter and the best team Philadelphia has ever fielded. The careers of Martinez, Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, and Schilling serve as a wake-up call for Halladay supporters and detractors. Dissecting every Halladay pitch this spring has some merit, but the wear and tear is already done. 

Joe Giglio is a MLB Lead Writer covering the NL and AL East. Follow him on Twitter @JoeGiglioSports.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

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