Is 2010 Jayson Werth’s Swan Song with the Philadelphia Phillies?

Like Carl Crawford, the chances of Jayson Werth re-signing with his current club beyond the 2010 season seem to be slim to none:

The Phillies are coming off an offseason in which they signed Shane Victorino, Roy Halladay, Joe Blanton, Danys Baez, Placido Polanco, Brian Schneider, Carlos Ruiz and Ross Gload to multiyear deals, pushing their 2011 payroll to $130.85 million.

Werth, who arrived yesterday sporting a bushy beard and shaggy hair, will be a 31-year-old free agent after this season.

The Phillies will be less than $10 million away from the $140 million threshold that they targeted this season, with 15 open roster spots. What happens next is anybody’s guess.

“I haven’t really thought about it,” said Werth, who will earn $7 million in the last year of the 2-year contract he signed before last season. “I know that how much they are spending is an issue, and I think it’s always an issue, no matter what the situation is. I definitely think that will play a part of it going forward. But again, that’s something that my agent and the team will work out, and hopefully it will work out and I’ll be in Philadelphia for a long time and continue to play with these guys.”

—-snip—-

The two sides have not engaged in substantive negotiations. Earlier this offseason, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. admitted that money will play a role in the team’s decision-making. The status of top prospect Domonic Brown, a corner outfielder, could also factor in.

“Jayson is under contract through this year,” Amaro said. “We’ve had very, very preliminary discussions about what his future might be like here. There will be some difficult decisions down the road. We’ll have to weigh where we want to fit in all the dollars and how we want to fit the puzzle together. We can not operate with nothing but $15 to $20 million players. And if there’s any indication, how much the Holliday and Bay signings have a direct impact on where Werth may be at the end of this year, we’re going to have to sift through it and figure out what’s best for the organization.”

 

The writing is on the wall for Werth in Philadelphia. With so much money committed already to players in 2011, there is virtually no chance that the Phillies will be able to re-sign Werth without doing something creative or having him take a well below market deal.

And as the article mentioned, if top prospect Domonic Brown is ready to take over the position in 2011, then the Phillies would have a cheap, high upside player who could replace Werth.

And as I mentioned back in January, if Werth puts up big numbers in 2010, then there is plenty of reasons to expect that he will land a huge contract. Sure, maybe the deal won’t be in the Matt Holliday territory, but Werth could position himself as one of the top free agents on the market and demand a multi year commitment with a $13-$16 million annual salary.

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Jayson Werth= Jason Bay?

Jayson Werth will become a free agent after this season and MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki ponders what kind of deal Werth might command. His guess: four years/$64 million (or something similar):

3. Can the Phillies sign Jayson Werth to a contract extension?

Jason Bay could sign a four-year, $64 million contract with the Mets. You’ve got to think Werth will be able to command a similar contract once he becomes a free agent after next season. And I’m not sure if the Phillies can match that. They’ve got a ton of free agents coming after the 2011 season, so they will have to determine who they can keep and for how much. The Phillies also have top prospect Domonic Brown coming through the system, but it is unclear if he will he be ready to play every day at the big league level by 2011. But Werth is a rare talent: he can hit for power, he can run, he plays good defense. He would be tough to replace, which is why it would be good to have him around for a while longer.

To date, Werth has only had one above average season (2008) and one stellar season (2009), but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Werth won’t be able to land a Jason Bay-esque contract. Sure, Bay has far more extensive resume than Werth right now, but as it stands right now, there are plenty of reasons why Werth should be thinking and dreaming big next winter:

1. Age
-When Werth becomes a free agent, he will only be 31 years old, which is the age Jason Bay was this winter.

2. Skill set
-As Zolecki noted, Werth is a phenomenal talent and can do just about everything well on the baseball field. While Bay got stuck with the “defensive liability” label this winter, it’s nearly impossible to think that Werth will be stuck with the same label next winter because he’s been a fantastic defensive player throughout his career.

At the dish, Werth can do just about everything: hit for power, get on base, steal bases, score runs, etc. In short, there is plenty to like about Werth’s game and ability.

3. Market
-This offseason, there were two prominent free agent hitters on the free agent market: Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. Holliday was generally thought of as the better all around player of the two, but their similar offensive ability certainly undercut the market for both players.

The market next winter looks very promising for Werth because there are no other outfielders with his skill set that are still in their prime. Case in point:

• Carl Crawford is a fantastic talent and is still in the prime of his career, but his skill set is totally different than Werth
• Maggilo Ordonez is a right handed power hitter, but he is past his prime and could be declining
• Pat Burrell cannot play defense and might be on the decline offensively
• Other options: Adam Dunn (cannot play defense, 1b?, left handed), Jose Guillen (headcase), Eric Byrnes (is he even a starter at this point?)

4. Economy
-The wild card in this equation. Hopefully for Werth, the economy has picked up by next winter and more teams have money to spend on free agents.

So if Werth is able to put together another monster season for the Phils (.275, 30 HR, 95 RBI, 20 SB, .370 OBP), then I would expect him to command a contract that not only matches the 4 year/$64 million that Jason Bay got from the Mets, but it’s possible that he could get a larger deal (both money and years).

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Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen Options

Now that the Phillies have added Roy Halladay, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has turned his attention to shoring up their shaky bullpen. With Chan Ho Park and Scott Eyre set to leave Philadelphia, Amaro has identified his two main targets: Fernando Rodney and Mike MacDougal. Both guys have experience closing, which is vital for the Phillies given how bad Brad Lidge performed last season.

The going rate for Rodney at this point seems to be somewhere in the 2 years/$12 million dollar range, which seems rather excessive when you consider that Mike Gonzalez, who is a superior pitcher, landed the exact same deal.

And even though Rodney has great stuff and was a decent closer for the Phillies this season, is he a guy that the Phillies should feel confident calling on in a big spot? Lemme put it to you this way, between Rodney and Brad Lidge, it could be a roller coaster season for the Phillies.

As for MacDougal, he had a nice couple months with the Nationals last season, but when it comes down to it, MacDougal is just a guy with great stuff and very poor control.

There’s a reason why the Nationals non-tendered him: even though MacDougal put together a nice season as the Nationals’ closer, his control makes him too much of a risk for the Nationals to pay him $3 million or so that he would have earned via arbitration. MacDougal should be a cheap option on the free agent market, but that doesn’t necessarily make him a good option for the Phillies given his control issues.

Before the Phillies make a final choice on MacDougal or Rodney, I’d suggest that they take a look into Jose Valverde. As I wrote a few days back, the market for Valverde stinks and it’s highly doubtful that he will come close to the 3 year/$30 million dollar contract he wanted this winter. Valverde is the best closer on the market, but because of his type A status, teams a shying away from offering him a contract.

That’s where the Phillis come in. With $118 million in payroll commitments already for 2010, the Phillies have roughly $22 million left to spend ($140 million dollar payroll), but a majority of that will be spent on arbitration raises.

If I’m Ruben Amaro, I would offer Valverde something like a one year deal worth $7.5 million dollars and a decent level of incentives.

Because the Phillies would have to surrender their first round pick to sign Valverde, I doubt they would be willing to pay more than that for a relief pitcher, no matter how good he may be. Valverde would give the Phillies a potentially dominant closer should Brad Lidge fail to return to his 2008 form and has far more upside than either Rodney or MacDougal.

If Valverde declines the offer, which I would expect, then Amaro can move on to options B and C. But there are plenty of reasons for Valverde to accept the deal. He would be placed in a great situation to play on a winning team where he might be able to close on a regular basis. And let’s face it, teams aren’t exactly clamoring to sign him, no matter how good of a closer he may be.

And the Phillies would be significantly upgrading their bullpen for 2010, which in my opinion is worth their first round pick given how minimal the commitment would be to Valverde. If Valverde joins the Phillies, then they would have to be the favorites in the National League.

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Roy Halladay Trade Fallout: Did Philadelphia Phillies Need To Include Cliff Lee?

The inclusion of Cliff Lee in the Roy Halladay trade has to be a hotly debated topic amongst Phillies fans. While I’m sure there are many who are thrilled to have acquired Halladay, the realization that the Phillies gave up their best starting pitcher in the process has to add some sting to the deal.

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Ten MLB Free Agents with Lots of Money to make this Postseason

Back in 2005, the Mets signed Carlos Beltran to a staggering seven year, $119 million dollar contract. Beltran was one of the top players in baseball at the time and could seemingly do it all on the baseball field (hit for power, steal bases, gold glove defense).

There’s no doubt that Beltran was due for a huge contract, but what cemented his huge contract was his absolutely ridiculous performance in the 2004 playoffs.

For three weeks in October, Beltran was the best player in baseball and showcased his immense ability on the biggest stage in baseball. At the same time, Beltran elevated his free agent stock to a price range that exceeded $100 million dollars. Not a bad deal, if you ask me.

So what free agents this season will use their postseason performance as a springboard for free agent riches? Let’s take a look at some possibilities:

10. Jon Garland

9. Vincente Padilla

With Hiroki Kuroda out for the NLDS and possibly longer, the Dodgers will likely be counting on one of these two (or maybe both) to start a game.

Both Garland and Padilla have seen their numbers improve dramatically since joining the National League and a good start in the playoffs could lead to a bigger payoff/commitment down the road.

8. Jason Marquis

For about four months this season, Marquis was one of the top pitchers in the National League. However, his performance has been just terrible. If Marquis can throw together a couple good starts in the playoffs, then teams might feel more comfortable handing him a three year deal.

7. Fernando Rodney* (not officially in the playoffs yet)

Entering this season, Fernando Rodney was an unknown for the Tigers. Everyone knew that he had electric stuff, but no one knew if he could handle being the Tigers’ closer.

Despite his 4.33 ERA, Rodney has 37 saves this season, and without him, the Tigers bullpen would have been atrocious. If Rodney shows that he can be a productive closer in the playoffs, then I’d expect his pay day to increase.

6. Randy Wolf

I’m not sure if there’s much more Wolf could do to showcase himself in the postseason because his regular season stats were so good. But the pressure is on Wolf, for sure.

The Dodgers will be counting on him to be their ace. And who knows? If Wolf throws a couple of very good games in the playoffs, I could see his stock increasing.

5. Brett Myers

Let me preface this by saying that there’s no guarantee that Myers will even be on the Phillies postseason roster.

But nevertheless, if he makes the roster, Myers could be handed a remarkable opportunity. Despite missing lots of time this season because of injuries, Myers could see lots of action in the Phillies mess of a bullpen this postseason.

And you never know. Myers could even see some time as closer for the Phillies.

A solid postseason from Myers could lead to the free agent riches that seem questionable at best right now for Myers.

4. Joel Pineiro

Pineiro has a chance to do something really special this postseason. On one hand, Pineiro has been one of the Cardinals’ top pitchers this season and has earned the right to start the third game of the NLDS.

But he does not have the pressure of being “the ace” for the Cardinals thanks to Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. I can absolutely see a huge postseason cementing Pineiro’s place as the second best starting pitcher on the market.

3. Jason Bay

If Bay can follow up his stellar 2008 postseason and fantastic 2009 regular season with a quality performance this postseason, then he could be setting himself up for a HUGE payday.

Can he earn more than Matt Holliday? Probably not. But can Bay earn a $100 million dollar contract? With a great postseason, I wouldn’t count it out.

2. John Lackey

This is Lackey’s time to shine. The Angels need him to be their ace and dominate for the next three weeks. A performance like that would do more than just state the obvious—that Lackey is the best starting pitcher on the free agent market.

It would prove to teams that when Lackey is healthy, he can dominate on the big stage like every team wants their ace to do.

1. Matt Holliday

Can his market value go any higher after his epic two month stretch with the Cardinals? A Cardinals World Championship can go a long way in securing Holliday a deal that far exceeds a total value of $100 million.

Thoughts?

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The Raul Ibanez Effect: Will Aging Outfielder’s Contract Influence Free Agency?

Last offseason, the Phillies surprised many baseball people by signing Raul Ibanez to a three-year contract worth $31.5 million.

The signing itself was not surprising (unless you were a huge Pat Burrell fan), but the number of years was, with the Phillies willing to give the 36-year-old Ibanez a three-year contract.

So far, the results have been great. The Phillies are back in the playoffs for the third straight season, and Ibanez, at age 37, has put up some of the best numbers of his career (.274, 34 HR, 93 RBI).

As we look forward to the 2009 offseason, I can’t help but wonder if the Ibanez contract will become the standard for aging but still productive hitters. Instead of looking for one or two years when the player is clearly past his prime, will agents start looking to get three-year deals like the one Ibanez got?

This discussion is interesting because there are a number of hitters who will be free agents this offseason that fit the “aging but still productive mold”: Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero and Bobby Abreu.

While all those guys are still productive hitters and pretty bad defensive players (like Ibanez), I can only see one of those guys nabbing a three-year deal— Bobby Abreu.

No, it’s not just because he’s been putting up stellar numbers this season. It’s also because he and Ibanez share a similar quality that I know teams value (and sometimes overvalue): consistency.

Entering last offseason, Raul Ibanez had played in at least 149 games in every season dating back to 2005 and was showing no signs of breaking down anytime soon. Like Ibanez, Abreu is remarkably consistent. Bobby Abreu has not played in fewer than 150 games in ANY SEASON SINCE 1998. That level of consistency is amazing.

I fully expect Abreu to be paid handsomely this summer. Yes, he’s 35 years old and will be 36 in March. But is a three-year deal out of the question? Absolutely not.

Thoughts?

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Pedro Martinez: The Free Agent

After his mastery against the New York Mets last night, Pedro Martinez’s numbers are officially ridiculous.

In seven starts with the Philadelphia Phillies, Martinez is 5-0 with a phenomenal 2.87 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.

Hey Pedro, this isn’t 1999!

But in all honesty, I didn’t think that he had much left in the tank. After watching him gut through the 2008 season with the Mets, where he was nothing more than a bad fifth starter, I believed that the dominant Martinez was long gone, the very good Martinez was no more, and the sometimes OK Martinez was here to stay.

But as they say, that’s why they play the games. I don’t think anyone in their wildest dreams could have imagined that Martinez was going to be this good with the Phillies. For God’s sake, he’s (in an admittedly limited sample size) striking out almost a batter an inning…34 K in 37 innings!

So what does this all mean for Pedro Martinez as we look towards 2010?

Well, I can tell you one thing, he will not have to wait until July to find work. It’s become clear that Martinez still has the ability to be an effective starting pitcher, especially in the National League.

I know it’s easy for us to get ahead of ourselves here because the sample size is so small, but his stuff looks very, very sharp right now.

At this point, would it be naive to think that Martinez could actually get more than a one-year deal on the open market? Probably. But if Pedro finishes out the season strong and has a dynamite postseason, then maybe, just maybe, the idea of giving a 38-year-old Pedro Martinez a two-year deal might not sound so stupid and crazy.

Thoughts? How much can Pedro get on the open market?

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Why Cliff Lee and the Phillies Are a Great Fit

If you’re a Phillies fan, there are plenty of reasons to like the acquisition of Cliff Lee.

1. He’s an ace.

2. The Phillies get to keep Kyle Drabek and Domenick Brown

3. He’s signed through 2010…

4. …at a reasonable rate.

5. Hamels and Lee are a great 1-2 punch.

6. The Phillies are now as good as any team, on paper.

7. Philadelphia gets to keep J.A. Happ.

8. The Phillies get to keep Michael Taylor.

9. Ben Francisco is a solid right-handed bat, even if he’s a weak defender.

10. October.

 

But you know why I like it—because Lee does not give up home runs. In 152 innings this season, Lee has only given up 10 home runs. And in 223 innings last season, Lee only gave up 12 home runs.

In addition, according to fangraphs, Lee’s flyball percentage this season is a very manageable 35 percent, and his home run per flyball rate is only 5.8 percent this season.

Why are home runs and flyballs so important with Lee? Because the Phillies play in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Ballpark, which is a bandbox second to only the new Yankee Stadium. It’s vital that the Phillies have pitchers who are not prone to the longball, because that type of pitcher has a high probability of getting hit hard in Citizens Bank Park.

There is no guarantee that these stats will lead to wins for Lee, but this a great risk for the Phillies, and it gives them a deep rotation to balance out a strong and balanced offense.

Interview with Matthew Tymann (Part 2)

And we’re back! Here is part two of the interview with Matthew Tymann. Enjoy!

Jorge Says No!: In your opinion, are the guys on the Riversharks playing to get back in affiliated ball, or are they playing for the love of the game/money?

Matthew Tymann: It’s two out of those three. First and foremost, they’re playing to get back in affiliated ball. To a man (with the possible exception of Felix Rodriguez, as I referenced earlier), they’ll all tell you that their No. 1 goal is to get signed by a Major League organization.

For guys like Davey, Brazelton, Knott, Leon, and Bryant Nelson, the goal is to get back to the Majors; for others, the goal is to get there for the first time. Not one of the players I’ve talked to on this team has lost sight of that dream, no matter how realistic or unrealistic it may be for some of them.

At the same time, though, they’re definitely playing for the love of the game, too. One thing that strikes me about non-Major League baseball players is how many different teams they play for over the course of their careers. Quite a few of them have played for more teams, in more cities, than the number of seasons in their career.

Brian Burgamy, our starting third baseman, has played for ten different teams in eight seasons…and he’s only been a part of three different Major League organizations.

Bryant Nelson, our shortstop, has played for sixteen different teams over sixteen professional seasons—sixteen teams!

And that’s not uncommon at all in this league. These guys are like mercenaries, and I don’t see how anyone could keep playing for that long, moving around the country that much, if he didn’t have a deep love for baseball. So, I’d say every one of the guys on the ‘sharks roster is playing for the love of the game.

Money would have to be a distant third to these two other reasons, except in the sense that a Major League contract would obviously generate some income. Players are not making a ton of dough in the Atlantic League. They play to get noticed by Major League teams, and they play for fun. Those are definitely the two main reasons.

Jorge Says No!: What do you like best about writing about and working with the Riversharks?

Tymann: Working with the Riversharks is great on a lot of levels. To be perfectly honest, my first priority is the broadcast side of things, not the blog or the other writing I do.

I do play-by-play for about 75 of the 140 games and color commentary for another 40. I’m an aspiring broadcaster, and so getting that much experience is my personal favorite aspect of the job.

But to answer your question in terms of the spirit in which I think it was asked…the best thing about working for the Riversharks is simply that they’re a baseball team and one that plays in such a talented and competitive league. Working for any baseball team, especially in a broadcasting/writing capacity, is bound to be fun, but I honestly didn’t realize before I got here how high the talent level in the Atlantic League is.

I can rattle off a list of guys in the league who were not only Major Leaguers but well-known Major Leaguers: Keith Foulke, Armando Benitez, Carl Everett, Jacque Jones, Junior Spivey, Marlon Anderson, Shawn Chacon…and the list could go on. Then there are notable names like Anthony Manuel [Jerry’s son], Jeff Nettles [Graig’s son], and, of course, P.J. Rose [Pete’s son].

Oh, and lest I forget: The league has some collection of famous managers too. Here’s the full list of eight: Butch Hobson, Chris Hoiles, Joe Ferguson, Von Hayes, Sparky Lyle, Tommy John, Tim Raines, [and] Gary Carter. [It’s] pretty cool to be working with and interviewing those guys.

But it’s not just about the notable names. The best players in the league are guys who aren’t all that well-known: Garcia and James Shanks of Southern Maryland, Miller, Magrane, Josh Pressley and Matt Hagen of Somerset, Brandon Sing of Bridgeport, and our own Tom Davey. And there’s good depth all around as well.

People who haven’t seen an Atlantic League game would almost certainly be impressed with the level of play, the competitiveness of the games, and the high interest of (some of) the fan bases.

Jorge Says No!: What kind of attendance do the Riversharks draw? In your opinion, is the fan base passionate about the team?

Tymann: The Riversharks are currently sixth [out of eight teams in the league] in attendance, averaging 3,483 fans per game. But teams like Long Island, Somerset, Lancaster, and York all regularly draw 5,000+ fans to their games, and the people that come out are generally a passionate bunch.

In Long Island and Somerset especially, the fans really care about the team and provide great energy in the stands.

Unfortunately, we don’t really get that in Camden. We have good fans, but they’re much more interested in having a good time with their families than cheering on the team. If the food is good; and the promotions are good; and the video is good; and the weather is good; and the team loses 10-0, the majority of our fans go home happy.

I’d like to see that not be the case, but it’s the way of life in a market like this. Any fans who want to be die-hards about a baseball team root for the Phillies, who play five to 10 minutes away. There just isn’t the baseball void in Camden that there is in a place like Somerset, Lancaster, or York.

So, the short answer to your question is: No, Riversharks fans are not generally passionate about the team. But, fortunately, there are passionate fans around the league, and that helps to make things more fun.

 

And a huge thanks goes out to Matt for giving us such in-depth responses. This was an eye-opening interview for me, and I hope everyone enjoyed it as well. Feel free to leave your comments in the comments and check out The Deep End!

Baseball Wives

Hey look, a show on E! that actually looks somewhat interesting and baseball related, from the Sun-Sentinel:

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