5 Reasons the Phillies’ Big Four Cannot Compare To The 90’s Braves Staff

The Phillies staff this year—if they play the way sports commentators and analysts predict they will—will be great. I am not knocking on their 2011 pitching rotation. They have Roy Halladay (two Cy Young Awards), Cliff Lee (one Cy Young Award), Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels as their projected 1-2-3-4 starters.

If one of them does not win they Cy Young Award this year, then I will be shocked. They should be able to win many games and help the Phillies make the playoffs. 

However, when people say that this staff will be better than the Atlanta Braves‘ legendary rotations in the 90’s and early 00’s, I disagree. Here are the reasons the Fab Four is not as good as the Braves’ rotation was from 1993-2003:

5. The Division

In my opinion, the NL East is the most underrated division in baseball. The division has produced four World Series champions in the past fifteen years, which is second only to the AL East, the best division in baseball.

This year the division will be interesting with three potential playoff teams: the Braves, the Marlins and of course the Phillies. This competition is rare for the NL East, which usually has only one good team.

The Braves won the division 10 straight times, and the Phillies have won it recently four times in a row. The Mets won it once, sandwiched between the Braves and the Phillies’ reign.

Last year, though, the division was very interesting because three different teams held the top spot. Eventually the Phillies held the lead and won the division and the Braves became the Wild Card winners.

This year should be just as close due to the new players added to the contending teams and the returning players. This should make life a little harder for the Phillies pitchers.

Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, Avery, Neagle and Millwood did not have to face the same competition that the Phillies will, which helped them to achieve more. The division will not be friendly to the Phillies’ rotation.

4. Longevity

What is very impressive about the Braves’ rotation was the length it stayed together. Their fourth starter changed from time to time, but the core three starters stayed together for ten years, something that is unheard of today.

The Braves’ front office was able to keep these amazing pitchers together on the same team for such a long time, and I do not believe the Phillies can replicate that. They signed Lee to a five-year contract, Halladay has two years left on his, and Oswalt and Hamels have only one year left.

Even if the Phillies somehow are able to keep all four or just three I still cannot see them staying for too long. That is another thing that separates the Braves’ rotation from the Phillies’. 

3. Age

One factor that played a part in the longevity of the Braves pitchers was age. Greg Maddux was 27 when he joined the club, John Smoltz was 26 at that time, and Tom Glavine was 27.

They all were able to play for the Braves during their prime. On the other hand, three of the four Phillies pitchers are over 31 years old. Now this does not mean they won’t pitch as well, but it does mean that they will have a lower chance to perform consistently over a long period of time like the Braves pitchers were able to do.

The Braves pitcher were able to stay together for ten years because they were young when they united. The Phillies pitchers are in the middle of their prime right now, which generally means that in five or six years they will begin to decline.

While this sometimes is not true,  it is very likely that it will happen to at least one of them. Just one of them declining would almost erase the need for this entire article. Age is significant in this comparison, and the Braves have the Phillies beat in that aspect. 

2. Skill

Individually, the Braves’ pitchers generally beat the Phillies’ pitchers stat-wise. I will go more in depth in this by doing side by side comparisons for the four starting pitchers of both rotations:

Roy Halladay vs. Greg Maddux

	Roy Halladay	Greg Maddux 1993-2002
Season Pitched	13	10
Games Started/Season	25	33
Career ERA	3.32	2.51
Career WHIP	1.18	1.04
Winnings %	66%	70%
Avg. Wins/Season	13	18
CG/Season	5	6
Innings/Season	177	231
SO/Season	132	170
SO/9	6.7	6.5
BB/9	1.9	1.4
SO/BB	3.53	4.87
SHO/Season	1	2

 Cliff Lee vs. Tom Glavine

	Cliff Lee	Tom Glavine 1993-2002
Season Pitched	9	10
Games Started/Season	24	33
Career ERA	3.85	3.25
Career WHIP	1.27	1.30
Winnings %	63%	67%
Avg. Wins/Season	11	17
CG/Season	2	3
Innings/Season	157	223
SO/Season	121	141
SO/9	6.9	5.7
BB/9	2.2	3.2
SO/BB	3.1	1.79
SHO/Season	1	1

Roy Oswalt vs. John Smoltz

	Roy Oswalt	John Smoltz 1993-1999*
Season Pitched	10	7
Games Started/Season	30	30
Career ERA	3.18	3.24
Career WHIP	1.18	1.16
Winnings %	64%	63%
Avg. Wins/Season	15	14
CG/Season	2	3
Innings/Season	202	205
SO/Season	167	194
SO/9	7.4	8.5
BB/9	2.1	2.6
SO/BB	3.6	3.2
SHO/Season	1	1

*After 1999 he became a relief pitcher

Cole Hamels vs. Fourth Starters

	Cole Hamels	Steve Avery1	Denny Neagle2	Kevin Millwood3
Season Pitched	5	4	2	6
GS/Season	30	28	32	27
Career ERA	3.53	3.92	3.25	3.73
Career WHIP	1.18	1.24	1.15	1.22
Winnings %	57%	56%	69%	62%
Avg. Wins/Season	12	10	18	12
CG/Season	1	2	4	1
Innings/Season	189	170	222	167
SO/Season	179	118	168	140
SO/9	8.5	6.3	6.8	7.5
BB/9	2.4	2.5	2.2	2.7
SO/BB	3.62	2.49	3.09	2.77
SHO/Season	1	0	3	0

¹ 1993-1996  ² 1997-1998  ³ 1997-2002

Although the stats for the Phillies’ pitchers are from their entire career, I wanted to compare their career stats to the numbers made by the Braves’ rotation during their time in Atlanta. As you can see, most of the time the Braves’s pitchers beat out the Phillies’ in most categories.

Oswalt and Smoltz are pretty even, but Maddux is better than Halladay and Glavine is better than Lee. The Braves’ fourth starters were slightly better than Hamels, but only slightly. The Phillies’ pitchers are great, but the Braves’ nineties pitchers are even better.

One of the three Atlanta pitchers took home the NL Cy Young Award five out of the first six years they were together. The three pitchers combined in their careers won seven Cy Young Awards, which beats the three that Halladay and Lee have won combined.

Obviously the pitchers on the Phillies have not finished their career and can still win that prestigious award, but it will be very hard to match what the Braves did. Overall, it will be hard for them to replicate the numbers that Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz made in their career together. 

1. Playing Games

The most obvious reason the Big Four cannot compare with the Braves’ legendary rotations in the 1990’s is they have not even played a single game together in the same uniform. 

It is ridiculous to make comparisons between a team on paper and a team that actually played. Even if the team on paper performed exactly as they are supposed to then the Braves’ staff still is better. But they haven’t yet, so do not make such judgements until the facts are in. The Braves’ rotation played ten seasons together, and the Phillies’ acclaimed rotation has played zero games on the same team.

The Phillies have a great bunch of starters that should help get them deep in the playoffs, but they have not become legendary yet. Comparisons cannot be made between them and any good rotations in history until they have actually played together for a reasonable amount of time. When that day comes, I will reassess, but until then the Braves’ rotations in the nineties are better than the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies’ Big Four. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2011 NL East: The Phillies Will Not Win The Division Easily

Do not take this the wrong way, I still do believe the Phillies will win the NL East. But I also have a feeling it won’t be as easy as everyone thinks. 

Remember last season? In the preseason the Phillies were picked to easily win the division and make it to the World Series. But what actually happened was much different. They were second in the division behind the Braves for most of the season and only took first place in September. 

They then got hot and became the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Halladay then pitched a no-hitter against the Reds and the Phillies went on to beat them down. However, they just could not beat the Giants in the NL Championship Series. 

Was their performance in the playoffs a fluke or a sign of things to come? Their offense is starting to age and even lost some players. Their pitching will improve, but I cannot see it becoming like the old Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz rotation of the 90’s. The Phillies pitchers, especially Halladay and Oswalt, are starting to get past their prime in terms of their age and they have an average bullpen. They are still a great team, but to what extent?

The competition will be tough for the reigning NL East champs with the offseason acquisitions by their rivals. The Braves traded for Dan Uggla, the Marlins got Javier Vasquez and Omar Infante and the Nationals acquired Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche. Most likely the only team that really could have a chance of closely competing with the Phillies would be the Braves, but the Marlins could also be close behind. 

In terms of their “big four”, they are great, but not spectacular. The comparisons made between them and the Brave’s rotations in the two decades ago are absurd. Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz had a combined five NL Cy Young awards in their 10 years together on the same pitching staff. I cannot see the Phillies staff staying together that long and being that successful. It may be in the top 25 best pitching staffs in baseball history, but it is not the best. They haven’t even played a single game together yet! 

The Phillies’ starting pitchers are only a combined 15-12 against the Braves. That is not dominant by any stretch of imagination. Only Halladay and Hamels have a winning record against the Braves, while the rest are .500 or below. In fact, Oswalt is 0-3 against them and Lee is 1-1. For two ‘dominant’ pitchers, that is not that impressive. 

The Phillies do have a team that can achieve its goals, but with their aging offense and the stiff competition from the Braves, it won’t be too easy. Their team is susceptible to injuries that could severely hurt their World Series hopes, especially if the injured player is Halladay or Chase Utley.

The Phillies’ road to becoming the 2011 NL East champions will not be paved with gold.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com