Philadelphia Phillies: Reviewing My 5 Bold Predictions at the Midway Point

You might remember way back on April 2 when I made five “bold” predictions about the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies season.

Well, now that the halfway point of the MLB season has arrived, I find it appropriate to go back and review those predictions to see how well my career as a fortune teller will go.

For those of you who don’t follow the team religiously, the team has been nothing short of a disappointment. Not only are they last in the NL East, but they’re 12 games back and falling quickly out of the second Wild Card race.

Part of the problem has been the pitching staff, one plagued by injuries and underwhelming performances.

From Cliff Lee’s 0-5 start to Roy Halladay’s DL stint to Joe Blanton’s mediocrity, the only bright spot on the staff has been Cole Hamels—and he could be gone with the blink of an eye.

The bullpen, unfortunately, hasn’t been much better (with the exception of closer Jonathan Papelbon)(more on that later).

The offense, while still below the standards of the 2008 World Series club, has re-bounded as of late fueled by the resurgence of Hunter Pence and the consistent bat of Carlos Ruiz.

Without further ado, here are my five bold predictions and their results at the halfway point of the 2012 season! 

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Philadelphia Phillies: GM Amaro Doesn’t Expect Ryan Howard Until July

The Philadelphia Phillies offense, which has been red-hot of late, took another blow Wednesday when it was revealed that GM Ruben Amaro Jr. doesn’t expect slugging first baseman Ryan Howard to return in June.

According to a report by SportingNews.com, Amaro said the following when asked about if he would return by June:

I don’t believe so. I don’t think so…Ryan has improved every day and he continues to improve. The goal is to get him as close to 100 percent as possible. But we can’t control the timing.

When asked about the All-Star break, which is in the second week of July, Amaro said he is hopeful. If Howard returns by that time, he will miss approximately half the season.

This means that the Phillies will have to continue to use a committee at first base, made up of guys like Ty Wigginton (.263 AVG, .346 OBP, .409 SLG), John Mayberry Jr. (.244 AVG, .282 OBP, .350 LSG), and call-up Hector Luna (.350 AVG, .381 OBP, .550 SLG).

If Wigginton and Luna hadn’t been hitting well of late, this news would have been worse. Even so, not having one of your best players for another month or so isn’t exactly what this last-place—even if it’s only by three games and they’re 27-25—team needed.

The timetables for other injuries—which are piling up—are more clear for this team: Roy Halladay will be back a week after the All-Star Break, Vance Worley is expected back soon, and Carlos Ruiz seems better already thanks to yesterday’s two-run home run.

The only question mark aside from Howard seems to be second basemen Chase Utley, who’s degenerative knee issues aren’t making things easy for the long-time Phillie.

While things as a whole don’t look pretty, the Phils need to look at it in perspective: They are two games above .500, and no team in the NL East has the depth or all-around talent to run away with the crown. Philly just needs to keep grinding it out until the stars return.  

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Philadelphia Phillies: Starter Vance Worley Likely to Require Offseason Surgery

According to a report by NBC’s HardballTalk, starting pitcher Vance Worley will require offseason surgery to fix bone chips in his right elbow. Like the Philadelphia Phillies, 21-21 and last in the NL East, needed any more bad news.

Worley was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Wednesday due to what he described as “soreness” in his right elbow. As the report dictates, an MRI revealed bone chips that will require surgery; even so, Worley plans to return as scheduled off of the DL:

“Man up…That’s the only thing I can do. I’ll just grit and grind out there.”

Doesn’t sound too reassuring.

There have been rumors that Worley has already been working to change his delivery in order to compensate for the pain he is feeling. Changing one’s delivery to avoid pain never ends well, and the long-term consequences for Vance’s shoulder could be serious. 

Even thinking completely in baseball terms, a change in delivery could mean a less effective pitcher. Worley has gone 15-6 with a 2.91 ERA thus far in his career with the Phillies, numbers that they can’t afford to lose at this point in time; they are five games behind the division-leading Braves.

The Phillies coaching staff is faced with a tough decision: hope for the best and allow Worley to do his thing, or play it safe, giving Worley surgery now and allowing him to recover, and possibly lose out on a postseason spot.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Players Making Statements in 2012

After starting out 2012 sluggishly, the Philadelphia Phillies have put the pedal to the medal over the last week, winning six straight games and seven out of eight against San Diego, Houston, Chicago, and now Boston.

There have been plenty of disappointments so far—Chad Qualls, John Mayberry Jr, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino—but plenty of Phillies have made inroads in their careers as they soar past expectations.

The offense seems back on track, with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley set to return within the next six weeks, the starting pitching is as solid as ever and the fielding hasn’t dipped since last year with the exception of a few extreme cases. Even though they are four games back and last in the division, this team seems poised to make a run thanks to a handful of players making the most of their playing time. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Players Who Made Statements on Opening Day

Coming into this season, the Philadelphia Phillies had the most question marks surrounding their team. Not only are they decimated by injuries to key players, but there were still juries out on several new—and even some old ones too—players as well. In short, Opening Day was extremely important in setting the tone for the 2012 season.

The 1-0 win over Pittsburgh, albeit a below-average squad, was just what the Philly faithful needed. An 0-2 start by Miami was pretty pleasing as well.

In my mind, there were five players in yesterday’s game who solidified their position on this team, not only playing well, but also sending messages to the fans and the rest of the MLB.

Read more of my work here. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Bold Predictions About the 2012 Season

The Philadelphia Phillies season is ready to open up Thursday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and I feel it appropriate to make five bold, controversial statements about the upcoming season.

I’ve watched five spring training games in person, so I feel like I have a decent grasp on how certain players are feeling and the overall direction the team is headed in. 

Looking back at the offseason, the NL East got much stronger with the acquisitions Miami made and the return of Stephen Strasburg and the addition of Gio Gonzalez to the Nats rotation.

For the first time since 2008, the NL East has more than two teams fully capable of making runs at the division title, which should make this season that much more interesting with the Phillies missing key pieces. 

So, without further ado, here are my five bold predictions about the Philadelphia Phillies‘ 2012 season!

Read more of my work here.

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Phillies Spring Training Report: Pierre or Podsednik?

With the 2012 edition of Spring Training coming to an end, the Phillies‘ final outfield spot is up for grabs. The candidates? Veteran outfielders Scott Podsednik and Juan Pierre. Even though Pierre has already made the 40-man roster, and Podesdnik is still waiting to hear from the club, it could be a decision to be made when rosters need to be cut to 25.

The winner will join an outfield crew featuring everyday starters Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence, John Mayberry Jr., who will split time between 1B and LF, and Laynce Nix, who will do the same. 

Charlie Manuel has a difficult decision to make between the two, but for what it’s worth I’ll take a stab at making a quasi-decision for him.

The two are remarkably similar. They both hit for average, steal bases, provide an above-average glove, and lack power. Here’s a comparison of their career per full season statistics:

	Pierre	Podsednik
AVG	.296	.279
SLG	.363	.381
HR	1.4	5.9
RBI	44	42.9
2B	21.3	24.4
3B	7.8	5.9
SB	50.4	43
CS	17.3	14.6
R	89.1	78.9

 

Their stolen base/caught stealing numbers are similar, their RBI numbers are nearly the same, and their SLG percentages are in the same ballpark. So, how does one make the decision?

The next logical tiebreaker would be to look at their production in the Spring. According to MLB Official Spring Training statistics, they have the same number of at-bats and RBIs, they’re both hitting over .310, and their walk and runs numbers are nearly the same.

However, when a person delves deeper, their statistics seem to differ. Podsednik’s SLG percentage is over .150 higher, he has 4 more doubles, and his stolen base – caught stealing rate is 5-0, while Pierre’s is 3-3. Statistically, he’s having a slightly better Spring.

Charlie has obviously looked at – or been told about – all of these statistical comparisons and differences. However, what he’s seen with his naked eye will in the end be a major contributing factor.

I’ve seen at least five Phillies Spring Training games this year, and I think Scott Podsednik really deserves the job. Pierre had a hit against Tampa recently to go along with a steal, but overall he has not been as consistent as Scott.

Even though he’s two years older, Podsednik looks like he’s in better shape, and his bat seems to be livelier. He’s stealing bases left and right, his glove is as sharp as ever, and he’s the only one of the two to have a home run this Spring.

In short, he looks like the best candidate for the job.

Please comment with your thoughts below.

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Phillies Spring Training: Pence and Victorino Are X-Factors

When you look around Citizens Bank Park, or, since it’s still Spring Training, Brighthouse Networks Field, you don’t see the once potent offense the Phillies had in 2008 when they beat the Tampa Bay Rays to capture the World Series title. You just don’t.

Chase Utley has chronic knee injuries which limit him severely, Jimmy Rollins has lost a step in the hole and on the base paths, Ryan Howard’s power seems to be diminishing with age—an Achilles injury doesn’t help—and the once-powerful bat of Pat Burrell is no longer here. Even Placido Polanco is looking as old as ever, and Tigers fans said that happened in 2006.

Everyone always says, “Pitching wins championships.” And, for the last two years, the Phillies have had the pitching. I mean, what’s better than three dominant aces and a blossoming young righty?

However, the 2008 Phillies were nearly the opposite of the team GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has amassed today. In 2008, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Joe Blanton all made names for themselves by getting hot in the World Series, but the team was really carried by a top-notch offense comprised of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley.

Today, however, that “top-notch” offense is nearly gone. It’s been replaced by the best on paper rotation ever assembled.

Key word? On paper. 

Even though Halladay, Lee, and Hamels have been stellar in the regular season, hiccups like Game 1 of the 2010 NLCS and Game 2 of the 2011 NLDS by Halladay and Lee respectively have shown chinks in the armor. But these are minor setbacks.

The more important thing is, unlike common misconception, a loaded lineup wins championships. The Phillies did in 2008, the Yankees did it 2009, and last year’s champion Cardinals had Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, and Albert Pujols in the lineup.

If you aren’t able to outscore your opponent, you won’t be able to win any big games. And now to get to the point: if Philadelphia needs anyone to step it up, it isn’t Hamels, Halladay, Lee, or even new closer Jonathan Papelbon. It’s their two best hitters, Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino.

These two fellows were fantastic in Phillies uniforms last season, outplaying former MVPs Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins.

In fact, by saber-metric parameters, Victorino and Pence easily outplayed those two. Pence posted a 5.3 WAR, while Victorino had 5.1. Howard only had 2.7, with Rollins coming in at 3.7.

And it was obvious in their statistics as well: Pence and Victorino are now the engines of a completely different Phillies lineup. In only 54 games as a Phillie, Pence hit an unbelievable .324 with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs. Victorino had 17 home runs, 16 triples, and 27 doubles while posting an impressive .491 slugging percentage.

Due to their production, Pence and Victorino will most likely be in the heart of the lineup, hitting fourth and second respectively. This means that they will need to drive in runners as well as get on base themselves, but until Ryan Howard returns in mid-summer, most of the power in the Phillies lineup will come from them. That’s what I call an X-Factor.

Thankfully, both of them are among only a handful of key Phillies who have been injury-free this offseason.

That’s a good thing considering their offensive production could certainly determine how efficient the offense is, and more important, how far the Phillies go in this year’s postseason.

Read more of my work here. 

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