And Then There Were Four: 2010 LCS Preview and Predictions

What an incredible LDS highlighted by Roy Halladay’s no-hitter. We saw the Rangers over the Rays in five, the Yankees sweep the Twins, the Phills sweep the Reds and the Giants top the Braves in four.

I went 3-1 in the LDS, with my blemish coming when I picked the Rays. I wish I had do-overs. This year’s LCS looks amazing. We have a classic David vs. Goliath story in the AL, and a mouth-watering pitching dual in the NL. Let’s run it down:

 

ALCS: New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers

I would absolutely love for the Yankees to get knocked out. It could happen too. The big thing here is that the Rangers will only be able to use LHP Cliff Lee once, since he’s projected to start Game 3. If he starts again, it’ll be on short rest – something he’s never done. Lee has been insane in the playoffs : seven starts, 6-0 record, 1.44 ERA, .185 batting average against and 9:1 K/BB ratio. In five of those starts, he has pitched at least seven innings without a walk.

Lee has four starts in which he struck out 10 and walked none — only four other pitchers in playoff history have done that, with Lee being the only one to repeat said performance. Tuesday night, Lee became the first pitcher to strike out 11 in a winner-take-all postseason game. In the ALDS, he set a postseason series record with 21 strikeouts without a walk.

That said, the Yankees can hit him – he’s 6-4 with a 4.42 ERA lifetime against the Yanks. Keep an eye on Lee throwing inside on righty bats. The Yanks’ rotation is a bit of a mess, but it looks like LHP C.C. Sabathia will go on short rest should the series go seven.

The Bronx Bombers come in as the rested team, but their lackluster starting pitching remains the biggest concern. That said, if LHP Andy Pettitte stays Mr. October, anything is fair game. Call me crazy, but the Rangers are a very similar team build to the Angels of the early 2000’s – they run like crazy.  They’ll make it close, but the Yanks prevail. I pray that I’m wrong, I really do – I’d love to see the Rangers advance given all they’ve been through, but I just don’t see it happening.

Pick: Yankees in 7

 

NLCS: San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies

What a pitching matchup! Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez vs. Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels. Sign me up!

Starting July 31, the Phillies have gone 30-5 in games started by H20. In the LDS sweep over the Reds, the Phils limited Cincy to four runs in three games, and held the highest-scoring team in the NL to a .124 average. Halladay threw the second no-hitter in postseason history, and Hamels threw a shutout in Game 3, making them only the second pair of teammates in the divisional era (from 1969 on) to throw shutouts in the same postseason series.

Starting September 1, H20 is 15-1. But, the Giants hit all three of them this year: Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels combined to throw 45 innings against San Fran, and they allowed 51 hits and 24 earned runs (a 4.80 ERA).

Don’t count of the Giants’ rotation, either – In four games against the Braves in the NLDS, Giants’ starting pitchers posted a 0.93 ERA, the third lowest starters’ ERA by an NL team in any postseason series. Lincecum pitched one of the greatest games in playoff history in Game 1 of the LDS: a two-hit, 14-strikeout gem in a 1-0 win.

Lincecum made one start against the Phillies this season, pitched 8 1/3 innings, allowed three hits, two earned runs, walked one and struck out 11. Cain threw well in Game 2 against the Braves, but the bullpen blew it. Sanchez has an ERA just north of 1.00 in his past eight starts. In two starts against the Phillies this season, he is 2-0. In 13 innings, he has allowed only five hits, two runs, walked seven and struck out 13.

LHP Madison Bumgarner is going to come in under the radar, having a 1.43 ERA in his past seven starts.

Let’s take a look at the closer’s situations. RHP Brian Wilson led the NL in saves with 48 and had a 1.81 ERA, walked 26 and struck out 93 in 74 2/3 innings. He tends to throw heat away to get batters to chase, but if he starts running it on the black, he’s nearly impossible to hit off of. In the LDS, he threw four scoreless innings and struck out five.

RHP Brad Lidge has been here before, both pitching well and terrible. Since August 1, though, he’s been “Lights Out” Lidge again. He’s thrown 24 2/3 innings, allowed 10 hits, two runs and struck out 25.

Could this series come down to middle-relief? The Giants’ pen was great all season, but stumbled against the Braves. The opposite is true for the Phils – a poor season with a strong LDS. On an aside, Buster Posey is epic. He’s accomplished so much in such little time. Not enough credit goes out to him.

If the Phils beat the Giants, they will become the first NL team to reach the World Series three years in a row since the 1942-44 Cardinals. My biggest fear is that the Giants’ bats fall asleep. The Phillis bats are too consistent, and I think that’s the difference-maker here. The Giants are the masters of one-run wins, but are they capable of holding the Phillies to a mere one-run lead? I don’t think so. My season-long prediction of Phils over Yankees in the World Series looks like it’ll be put to the test.

Pick: Phillies in 7

 

Although I’m new to B/R, I’ve been making previews and predictions through my website for each of the big-four sports. You can take a look at my playoff prediction accuracy below:

NHL
2007-08: 12-3 (80%)
2008-09: 10-5 (67%)
2009-10: 9-6 (60%)
Total: 31/45 = 69%

NBA
2007-08: 11-4 (73%)
2008-09: 9-6 (60%)
2009-10: 11-4 (73%)
Total: 20/30 = 67%

MLB
2008: 5-2 (71%)
2009: 4-3 (57%)
Total: 9/14 = 64%

NFL
2008-09: 9-2 (82%)
2009-10: 7-4 (64%)
Total: 16/22 = 73%

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Roy Halladay Makes Playoff Debut Historical

Phillies’ ace RHP Roy Halladay thew a no-hitter in his FIRST ever playoff appearance, in the same season he threw a perfect game.

Doc cruised right through the Cincy lineup, whiffing eight batters and allowing only a fifth-inning walk as the only blemish on an otherwise perfect scorecard on his way to making baseball history.

Erasing the full-count, two-out free pass to Reds’ OF Jay Bruce in the fifth would’ve made Halladay the first pitcher in history to throw two perfect games in one season. He is, however, the first pitcher since Nolan Ryan in 1973 to throw two no-hitters in a season, and only the fifth all-time.

You knew Halladay and battery-mate Carlos Ruiz had something special when Doc shook off just one of Ruiz’ signals all night. Doc faced just one batter above the minimum, and in doing so threw a first-pitch strike to 17 of the first 18 batters, and to 25 of 28 (89.3%) overall, the fifth-highest percentage for any starter this year who faced a minimum of 20 hitters.

Halladay threw 104 pitches, 79 for strikes. This was the first no-hitter against the Reds since 1971, when Philadelphia’s Rick Wise beat them by the same 4-0 score.

“I felt like we got in a groove early. Carlos has been great all year, he helps me get into a rhythm early, throwing strikes.”

The Reds managed just a pair of hard-hit balls all night, and only four left the infield—in truth, they never really came close to recording a hit.

He’s now the first pitcher to toss a shutout in his postseason debut since Bobby Jones’ one-hitter for the Mets in Game 4 of the 2000 NLDS. He’s also the first starting pitcher in the history of postseason baseball to have more hits in a game than he allowed. Halladay was 1-3 with this RBI single.

“It’s surreal, it really is. I just wanted to pitch here, to pitch in the post-season. To go out and have a game like that, it’s a dream come true.”

What makes this more impressive is that it was against the Reds, who lead the NL in runs, average, hits and home runs this season. But for Toronto fans, this is nothing new. Doc has flown under the radar for years, and now that he’s getting some US media attention, everyone is slowly starting to see who this guy is.

Doc joins Don Larsen, who threw a perfect game in the World Series of 1956, as the only pitchers to throw no-no’s in the postseason. It’s also the sixth no-hitter of 2010, a season that is quickly becoming known as the Year of the Pitcher.

Halladay pumped his fist into his glove as Ruiz rushed to the mound. Just like Yogi Berra did with Larsen, Ruiz started to jump into Halladay’s arms. Unlike Berra, the five-foot-eight Ruiz didn’t wrap up his pitcher in a bear hug.

“I think as soon as you try and [focus on a no-hitter] it kind of takes you out of your plan a little bit,” he said, admitting that he knew the he was aware he was pitching a no-hitter “in the fifth or sixth inning.”

Halladay, very quietly, has become the best pitcher of our generation. He’s a three-time 20-game winner, six-time All-Star and has a 2003 Cy Young award, but has yet to play in any meaningful games—until Game 1 of the NLDS.

12 years we’ve waited to see what Doc was capable of in the postseason, and how does he fare? Not bad—just a no-hitter.

Even bullpen coach Mick Billmeyer noticed something different about Halladay during the warmups, saying his fastball had some extra movement as it cut over the plate. “I didn’t know if he could throw a no-hitter, but he was real, real crisp.”

Halladay had everything working—the fastball, curve, sinker, changeup—and he made Reds’ hitters look goofy all night, more so even than in his perfect game outing against the Marlins.

There were five no-hitters in the majors this year, as pitchers dominated—but five no-hit bids got broken up in the ninth inning. Not this time.

As Ruiz slowly fielded a swinging bunt from Brandon Phillips as the final out of the game, the sellout-crowd of 46,411 that filled Citizen’s Bank Park absolutely erupted. “Let’s go Roy!” chants filled the stadium.

Cole Hamels, who watched from the dugout during Doc’s perfect game earlier this season, was amazed once again with what Halladay is capable of.

“You know, this is what he expects to do, and so when he does it he’s just like, ‘yeah that’s me.’”

Roy Halladay, entirely under the radar, has become the most dominating and talented pitcher of our generation. As he looks to be the favorite for the 2010 NL Cy Young, what could be the second on his mantle, he remains a humble, classy human being.

The amount of hours he puts into single games is unprecedented, and he continues to be baseball’s best-kept secret and one of the most underrated players in Major League Baseball. It’s truly a shame that it’s taken him 12 years to finally get to the playoffs, but now that he has, he’s gotten a golden opportunity to win a World Series—the only thing missing from his Hall of Fame resume.

What we just watched was unforgettable baseball history that we’ll be hearing about for the rest of our lives. Amazing.

“This is what you come here for. It’s a good team, they know how to win. … It’s been a great year, a fun year, we obviously have a ways to go.”

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