Philadelphia Phillies 2012: Analyzing Their Current Chances to Make the Playoffs

It is just twelve games into the baseball season, and some people are already prepared to sound the panic alarm when it comes to the Philadelphia Phillies. Currently sitting at 5-7, 4.5 games behind the Nationals for first in the NL East, the Phillies are in an unenviable position—the cellar.

Typically, this early in the season, it is easy to discount the doubters and those ready to give up on the Phils’ season, but this year, the circumstances are different. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley aren’t on the field, and the lineup, which has served as a revolving door, has been anything but consistent.

In Philadelphia, fans don’t want to give up on this team, but when they see what is going on within the division and the offensive futility, it is not that strange to see people starting to worry. It may still be too soon to hit the panic button, but if this offense continues to struggle, even Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels won’t be able to save the Phillies’ season.

 

It All Begins with the Offense

I think it is clear that no one really expected the Phillies to be an offensive juggernaut this year as they have been in the past. Coming into the season, the organization knew Ryan Howard would be out until at least mid-May and then also had to deal with the somewhat surprising news that Chase Utley, too, would not be in the lineup for the foreseeable future.

Obviously, replacing these All-Stars—in addition to replacing the powerful yet sometimes inconsistent bat of Raul Ibanez, who left in free agency—the Phillies knew it wouldn’t be easy.

Making matters worse was the fact that even with Utley and Howard on the DL, the Phillies were still operating close to the salary cap because of the millions of dollars owed to these two players.

So with not much money to work with, Ruben Amaro brought in a handful of second-tier players. Some may have been overpaid, and others seemed to only be brought here for versatility, to fill in at short and third in case the aging Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco could not go.

Needless to say, not only did the team get increasingly older, but it also didn’t really improve in terms of offense.

With the new players, the world of Phillies baseball that fans knew underwent a facelift. Unlike in the past when the team lived or died by the home run ball, this year relying on the long ball would be a mistake.

Unfortunately, having known this method for so long, it isn’t exactly going to be easy to change. The term “small ball” was practically foreign to fans and the team before this year. So far, with runs coming in few and far between, attempts to play this way clearly are not working.

 

Numbers Can Be Deceiving

If you look at the Phillies offensive numbers, some of them aren’t as bad as the record and lack of run scoring indicate they would be.

Where averages are down across the board in major league baseball, the Phillies are hitting right around the NL median of .244. Their .248 offense, which was a few points higher before last night’s quagmire, is good enough for seventh best in the National League.  As far as hits go, the Phillies are also in the middle of the pack, with their 101 hits good enough for eighth best.

The numbers may not jump out at you, but in terms of the rest of the league, they are not that bad. The problem, however, is that numbers don’t tell the whole story. 

In fact, as far as the Phillies average goes, the numbers are somewhat skewed. The .248 mark is only as high as it is because of the boost it receives from the .326 average of Hunter Pence, the .306 average of Carlos Ruiz, the .300 average of Juan Pierre, the .286 average of Jimmy Rollins and the .277 average of Shane Victorino.

Now, I know it is early in the season and averages are still taking shape, but after these five guys, the team average drops off dramatically. The next highest average is Pete Orr, who has only had one at-bat, at .250. After that, the entire rest of the lineup is hitting below .240.

In addition to deceptive averages, another stat which doesn’t tell the whole story is hits. Sitting eighth in the league in hits (101) does not appear to be that bad.

What that number doesn’t tell, however, is how many bases the Phils are accumulating with these hits. Their 16 total doubles ranks them in at 15 of 16 teams. Besides the Mets, they are the only team yet to hit a triple. Their six home runs is tied for second worst.

Doing the math, only 22 of the Phillies’ hits have gone for extra bases, which in terms of percentages is 15th worst. At only 21.7 percent of their hits going for extra bases, it is not surprising that the Phillies have failed to score runs.

Couple that with the amount of runners that they strand on base, and it is clear why they rank near the bottom of the NL in runs (14th) and RBI (14th). They also are not working out that many walks (15th), contributing to an OBP of .284 (14th).

 

The Need to Play Small Ball

There is no simple answer for why the Phillies have struggled so much offensively this year. It could be the inconsistent playing time for some of the guys; it could be the lack of firepower; it could be uncertainty of playing time. Most likely, it is a combination of all three of these things.

Right now it doesn’t look good for the Phillies, but there are signs to indicate things could turn around.

The Phillies likely won’t be scoring five-six runs a game like they did last year, but nevertheless, they still can have a chance to have an average offensive season and to make the playoffs. There are signs of hope, including their top-of-the-league stolen base percentage and their surprisingly low strikeout numbers.

It may not indicate much, but what it does show is that if the Phils can string together more singles, even if they are not hitting that many extra base hits, they can still score runs.

It won’t happen overnight, and it needs to happen soon if they want to win their sixth consecutive NL East crown, but the Phils could be on their way to discovering how to play small ball effectively.

 

Getting By With the Help of Three Aces

Even with only five wins on the season, three of which come from the combination of Roy Halladay’s first through eighth innings and Jonathan Papelbon’s ninth, the Phillies would not be where they are if not for the three aces.

Each start, the pitchers have kept the Phils in the game. In fact, eight of the twelve starts by the starting staff have been considered quality starts (7 IP, 3 ER). There is no reason the Phillies should not win these games, but so far mustering just one run a game has been difficult.

Run support will be at a premium this year, so the aces will have to be nearly perfect to reach 14-plus wins as they all did last season.

So far, Doc Halladay is leading the charge. The 2010 Cy Young Award winner is putting his name in the hat to win it again as his first three starts have been masterful.

Each start Halladay has gone eight innings and hasn’t given up more than two runs. When the Phillies have needed a win, Halladay has been there. Luckily enough for the Phils, Doc doesn’t give up too many runs and, as a result, does not need that much run support.

Both Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee had forgettable first starts, but since then, the two have settled down. Hamels has a record of 1-1 in three starts while Lee is still winless, but really shouldn’t be.

It should worry the Phils and their fans that they could not muster just one run, especially when Lee gave up nothing. The Phillies had their opportunities against Matt Cain, but nothing came of it. As a result, Lee went ten innings, throwing 109 pitches, 83 of which went for strikes. He was barely short of perfect and deserved a better fate than a ND.

 

“Getting By” Won’t Equal Playoff Birth

The aces have been spectacular this year, but with the offensive futility, masterful pitching won’t be enough.

It was evident in Cliff Lee’s gem against the Giants that even if you give up no runs, it won’t equal a win. Even though the great pitching has helped them out this season, in order to make the playoffs and advance in the playoffs, there has to be some sort of consistent contribution on offense.

If the Phillies’ offense does not find a solution soon, then even the aces won’t be able to save the season. The three pitchers whom each team would love to have as the playoff rotation might not even get a chance to throw an October pitch. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Positive Things to Take Away from Opening Day

Spring training is over and the 2012 baseball season in Philadelphia has officially begun.

There has been much talk over the offseason about how the Phillies will fare in 2012. Without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, will they have enough offense to win games? Where will the power come from? How will Hunter Pence and John Mayberry handle the load? What will happen if Jimmy Rollins or Placido Polanco get put on the DL?

Obviously none of these questions have easy answers, and it will take a lot of creativity on the part of Charlie Manuel and his staff to take the team he has to championship glory once again. But nothing is out of the realm of possibility for this team.

Despite some offensive struggles and leftover batting rust, the Phillies still managed a 1-0 win behind Roy Halladay’s stellar pitching and Carlos Ruiz’s inspired offense. It may not be much but a win is a win and for the Phils, pitching will likely be key in 2012 so 1-0 wins could be a bit of a norm.

Even if the offense was a bit lackluster, defense was strong on all ends and pitching was at a premium. Besides the “one” in the win column which is the only number that matters, the Opening Day game yielded some positive signs for the Phils going forward.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Most Intriguing Spring Position Battles

As you watch a Philadelphia Phillies spring training game, there are some things you have probably already taken note of.

Aces, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels only throw a few innings per start, closer Jonathan Papelbon has come in to pitch in the 5^th or 7^th inning, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are nowhere to be found, Jimmy Rollins and Hunter Pence don’t play every game or every inning, veteran Jim Thome is playing as a DH and Domonic Brown is getting playing time with the big league club once again.

It isn’t exactly the scenario you may have expected when the 2011 season came to an end, but hey it is spring training, and any baseball fan knows that the above and other spring oddities are totally normal and expected parts of baseball’s version of a pre-season.

In addition to the line-ups that may have some shaking their heads, spring training is also the time when prospects, non-roster invitees and minor league free agent signings use everything in their power to play inspired baseball and win a spot on the big league club. The games may in and of themselves be a little boring but the position battles certainly are not.

So the next time you tune in to a Phillies Grapefruit League game, don’t pay attention to the fact that Roy Halladay is only pitching four innings before being pulled or that Jimmy Rollins is striking out while working on his bunting. Instead, watch as Freddy Galvis flashes some leather and displays some surprising pop, notice how Domonic Brown’s offensive output is improving, observe how Scott Podsednik has emerged as a candidate to earn a bench spot and pay attention to Phillipe Aumont, Justin DeFratus and Michael Shwimer every time they pitch.

These are just some of the stories that have emerged out of the Phillies camp and ones that will certainly be interesting to follow as Opening Day inches closer.

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Domonic Brown: Reasons to Worry About the Philadelphia Phillies Outfielder

In the past few years, the Phillies have been incredibly aggressive and competitive when it comes to attracting big-name players. In order to do so, however, they had to make some pretty big trades in which they parted with some of their best and most highly touted prospects. 

It is for that reason that Domonic Brown is even more important to the Phillies organization.

In the Halladay trade, Brown was the one Phils prospect that was considered untouchable. Now, he is on his last option with the team and considered possible trade bait. He hasn’t experienced the meteoric rise to the majors that many expected, and he still has a long way to go if he ever hopes to be a great major league player.

That said, Brown is already 24 and is running out of time to prove to teams everywhere that he can be a major league baseball player. He has come into spring training with a new swing, a new attitude and a determination to win a job on the Phillies roster, which according to Ruben Amaro would only happen if he had an outstanding spring training.

If he doesn’t make the team out of spring training then the Phillies will have some decisions to make regarding the young outfielder.

Brown’s maturation and growing process needs to come to an end now if the Phillies ever hope to get a quality player out of him. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Grading GM Ruben Amaro’s Offseason Moves

Phillies fans have recently been accustomed to big offseason moves.

After completing a blockbuster trade for Roy Halladay, and then swooping in and stealing Cliff Lee as a free agent the year after, Ruben Amaro has made it his mission to bring the top names to Philadelphia.

Because this has been Amaro’s claim to fame ever since he took over as GM after the 2008 season, Phillies fans and media have almost expected Amaro to bring a star to the city every single season. It even seems that anything short of that is considered an offseason failure.

In 2012, Amaro did make a blockbuster move but it was in the form of a closer and with guys like Jose Reyes and Prince Fielder leading a very talented and versatile free agent class, Amaro’s signing of Jonathan Papelbon wasn’t exactly the amazing move some may have expected.

With guys like Halladay, Lee, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley occupying a good portion of the team’s current salary, bringing in more superstars wasn’t likely. Despite this however, Amaro did make some minor moves to bolster the Phillies bullpen and bench depth.

As spring training nears, it is time to evaluate some of these moves and hand out Amaro’s 2012 offseason report card.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 50 Most Memorable Moments in Phillie Phanatic History

He’s big, green, furry and lovable.

There is only one creature that can fill this description and subsequently these big shoes. That is the one and only Phillie Phanatic. Ever since he first popped out of the baseball in 1978, making his debut to the world, the Phillie Phanatic has captivated millions of Philadelphia Phillies and baseball fans alike.

His antics are hilarious and humorous. No one—celebrities, players and fans included—is off limits from his practical jokes and entertaining behavior.

A 33-year career of skits and more, there is really nothing the Phanatic hasn’t done. He has made countless public appearances throughout the Philadelphia area and met celebrities. The Phillie Phanatic has even U.S. Presidents, and has also appeared on television programs, including The Late Show with David Letterman and The Simpsons.

Needless to say, the Phanatic is one of, if not the most, entertaining and hilarious mascots in sports. He is part of the Phillies family and as much a part of Philadelphia as Rocky and the famous cheesestakes to which the city lays claim.

So take a few minutes, watch a few videos and look back on 50 of the Phanatic’s most memorable Moments. 

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9 Signs Jimmy Rollins Still Has More Success Left in the Tank

It is hard to believe that it has been over ten years since the Philadelphia Phillies found their starting shortstop in hotshot prospect Jimmy Rollins. From Reading to Scranton and then up to the Phillies in 2000, Rollins has continually shown his worth and his talent with the club that drafted him.

Rollins, now 33, is hoping to continue to wow Phillies fans with his bat and glove. He may not be the all star and MVP he was only five years ago, but he can still play and he can still succeed at the major league level.

In 2012 Rollins will be in the first year of a new three year deal with the Phillies. The vesting option for a fourth year seems achievable if he can stay healthy and it looks that the Phillies and Rollins will look to him having a good season if they hope to reach another World Series. With only three guaranteed years to prove he can still play, Rollins is primed to show the Phillies in 2012 and beyond why signing him was a good investment.

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Philadelphia Phillies 2012: 11 Ways to Regain Their Mental Edge over Opponents

Only a few years ago when the Phillies were fresh off of a World Series Championship, the team possessed one of the more important but sometimes overlooked factors of greatness: intimidation. Loaded with offensive stars who were more than prone to hit the long ball, the Phillies had the ability to go up to the plate already with an edge because of their skill at knowing how to get under the opponent’s skin. Beginning with Jimmy Rollins and his bold 2007 post season declaration, the Phillies combined talent with mastery of the mental game and rode that to a World Series Championship.

As of 2012, the World Series winning season will already be four years in the past and since that time the Phillies have slowly lost the mental edge they possessed. Teams aren’t as intimidated by the Phillies anymore because they have discovered and highlighted their weaknesses. By being successful, the Phillies went from the mostly unnoticed prey to the now chased and hunted predator, with teams constantly game planning to exploit baseball’s former best team.

Although by many it is believed that the pieces are there for the Phillies to repeat, the mental edge they had in 2008 is gone. As the NL East continues to get stronger, regaining this mental edge will be key to the Phillies once again winning the World Series.

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Philadelphia Phillies 2012: Are the Braves or Marlins the Bigger NL East Threat?

As the end of December rolls around and January 2012 approaches, we are only months away from the start of yet another MLB season. It is hard to believe that already over one month ago, the World Series was awarded and that now, teams are already preparing so that they have their shot to win it all in 2012.

With the Phillies having the National League’s highest payroll, the Marlins moving to a new stadium and bringing stars with them, the Braves keeping much of their core in tact and the Nationals slowly working their way into the playoff conversation, the National League East race has the potential to be extremely tight and one of the best in baseball to follow in the coming season.

Let’s start with the Phillies. Obviously, as the five-time defending champion of the NL East crown, they are the ones being chased in 2012. The Phillies had by most fan’s reasoning a very quiet off season. As opposed to the past two years when Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay were acquired, this year GM Ruben Amaro seemed to look more at role players to add. That being said he did bring in top closer Jonathon Papelbon for a five year, $50M deal to replace the exiting Ryan Madson. The contract made Papelbon the highest paid relief pitcher in baseball history.

Without acquiring the marquee free agents such as they did in the past, Amaro managed to on paper improve the bench and the bullpen, two areas of need. He also brought SS Jimmy Rollins back to the team on a three year deal, with a vesting option for a fourth year. Bringing back Rollins was one of the top priorities on the Phillies off season wish list and having him back in the fold is something that both fans and teammates alike hoped to happen.

Amaro also brought in Ty Wigginton, a utility player with the ability to play most infield positions and Laynce Nix to replace Raul Ibanez in right. Amaro also brought back fan favorite Jim Thome to replace Ross Gload on the bench. None of these moves are blockbuster but at the price Amaro paid for these guys, it could be something that pays off in the end.

Next up are the second place Atlanta Braves. Last year the Braves had a strong shot to challenge the Phillies for the NL East crown, but they suffered key injuries down the stretch. As the Phillies pulled away in their best season as a professional baseball team, the Braves struggled. They remained relevant, however, and if not for losing the final series of the regular season to the Phillies would have made the playoffs as the wild card.

There is no reason to suggest that the Braves won’t be competitive again this season. Their young crop of talent featuring Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward looks to continue to be effective this year and their back of the bullpen—with set-up man Jhonny Venters and ROY closer Craig Kimbrel—is one of the best in baseball.

One of the major setbacks this offseason for the Braves has been their relative inactivity. They allowed SS Alex Gonzalez to sign with Brewers, indicating that they might be adding another rookie to their already solid core. They also ate a huge portion of Derek Lowe’s contract as they traded him to Cleveland for pitching prospect Chris Jones.

Getting rid of Lowe could be huge for the Braves. He may not have been the best pitcher last season, but something Lowe has been able to do is beat the Phillies. Although last season his record was 1-4 against the team, his sinker and ground ball style of pitching has given the Phils’ strikeout prone hitters problems in the past. In a division where pitching is front and center, getting rid of Lowe may have not been in the Braves interest when it comes to being able to compete with Philly’s top arms, Miami’s talent and the young guns of Washington in Steven Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez.

The newly named and located Miami Marlins made a big splash this offseason. Not only did they display new uniforms and a new stadium, but they seemed to be overloaded with cash to spend. After bringing in former White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, the Marlins were rumored to have offers out for two of the market’s biggest free agents. The buzz around the baseball world was that the offers were real and that there was a pretty big chance that Miami could have signed both Jose Reyes and Albert Pujols.

Well, luckily for the rest of the league, the Marlins would have to settle—although I think it is hardly settling—for just Jose Reyes. They also brought in Mark Buehrle to add to an already solid rotation featuring Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez. If all of these guys are healthy, Miami has their own big three to compete against the arms of Philadelphia. The Marlins also improved their bullpen by signing closer Heath Bell for a pretty reasonable price.

Just these few moves move the Marlins from pretender to contender in 2012. Their lineup is already stacked with talent in Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton and adding Jose Reyes gives the lineup more speed and swagger. It will be a new Miami offense with him at the helm and expect it to be explosive.

Right now, with all of the moves already made and not including any that might still be made, it is clear that the Marlins and not the Braves will be the bigger threat to Philly in 2012. They improved their offense and will have a formidable pitching staff, permitting Johnson will be back and healthy for 2012. If any team will challenge the Phillies for the NL East next season, it will be the Marlins. In fact if they can convince Hanley Ramirez to stay and play third, there is a good shot they will be at the top of the NL East next season.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies 2012: 5 Notable Prospects Not Protected in Rule 5 Draft

The weather in December may be getting colder, but the MLB offseason is heating up by the minute. With baseball Winter Meetings underway and free agent rumors circling every baseball website, the MLB Hot Stove has never been hotter.

Plus, with a star-studded class of Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and the biggest signing so far in Jonathon Papelbon, the potential for big signings this offseason has many excited.

In addition to free agent signings, December also features the Rule 5 Draft in which Triple and Double A players from each organization are available to be traded to a new team. It has been described as rooting through a clearance rack in hopes to find a player who will help your club but knowing that you are not likely to discover an all-star difference maker.

That is not to say you won’t get a good player such as Michael Martinez who helped the Phillies in 2011, or rarer yet to find a prospect turned future all-star like Josh Hamilton, Shane Victorino or Dan Uggla, all of whom were selected in the draft.

The Rule 5 Draft does have its stipulations however. Not all of the MLB teams have to select a player and the cost is $50,000 to take a player. If the selected player remains active on his big league club for a minimum of 90 days and stays on the 40- man roster for the entire season, the new team can keep him. If not, he has to be offered back to his old team where they have the option to release of keep the player in addition to returning half of the $50,000 that was offered to them.

While any AA or AAA prospect can be taken, each team has the ability to protect a handful of its players by adding them to their 40-man roster.

As of last week the Phillies made their decisions on who to protect. They added RHP Phillipe Aumont, LHP Jacob Diekman, OF Tyson Gilles and C Sebastian Valle. With the 40-man roster filled and prospects like 2B Freddy Galvis, OF Domonic Brown and pitchers JC Ramirez, Justin De Fratus and Joe Savery already on it, here are some notable names the Phillies chose not to protect from the Rule 5 Draft. 

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