Philadelphia Phillies: Playoff Chances with 11 Games Left

Twelve days ago I wrote about what it would take for the Phillies to make the playoffs.  Since writing that article, here is how the NL Wild Card contenders have fared:

1. St Louis Cardinals: 5-6

2. Los Angeles Dodgers: 4-6

3. Milwaukee Brewers: 9-1

4. Philadelphia Phillies: 8-3

5. Arizona Diamondbacks: 6-3

6. Pittsburgh Pirates: 2-9

For the purpose of this exercise, I am eliminating the Pittsburgh Pirates. They are 5.5 games back with just 12 games to play and leapfrogging five teams with so few games left to play is not going to happen. Nor have they shown any sort of hint that they have a 11-1 or 10-2 run in them to even make it close.

So, for the Phillies to make the playoffs, the above teams would have to finish like this from here on out:

1. Philadelphia Phillies: 9-2 to finish 86-76

2. St Louis Cardinals: 5-6 to finish 85-77

3. Los Angeles Dodgers: 6-5 to finish 84-78

3. Milwaukee Brewers: 6-6)to finish 84-78

5. Arizona Diamondbacks: 7-5 to finish 82-80

It is a tall order for Philadelphia. If the Phillies go 9-2 to close out the season, that means they will have gone 17-5 since my original article and 32-11 in their last 43 games.

Their record since the All-Star break would be 49-26. The 49 wins since the All-Star break would not be unprecedented for this core. In the magical five-year run before this season, this is how the Phillies performed post-All Star break:

2007: 45-29 (.608)

2008: 40-26 (.606)

2009: 45-31 (.592)

2010: 50-25 (.667)

2011: 45-26 (.634)

So a 49-26 mark this year would basically be right in line with the previous five years.

Here is a breakdown of how the contending teams need to fare in order for the Phils to make the playoffs:

 

Cardinals

 at Chicago (1-1), at Houston (2-1), vs Washington (1-2), vs Cincinnati (1-2)

 

Dodgers

 at Cincinnati (1-1), at San Diego (2-1), vs Colorado (2-1), at San Francisco (1-2)

 

Brewers

 at Washington (1-2), at Cincinnati (1-2), vs Houston (2-1), vs San Diego (2-1)

 

Phillies

 vs Atlanta (2-0), vs Washington (2-1), at Miami (3-0), at Washington (2-1)

 

Diamondbacks

 at Colorado (2-1), at San Francisco (1-2), vs Chicago (2-1), vs Colorado (2-1)

 

Realistically, the most difficult scenario to imagine is the Phillies going 9-2.  Sweeping Atlanta and Miami is a lot to ask.

Washington still has the No. 1 seed to play for, so they probably will not be mailing in any games. But they have not been playing great baseball recently, winning just six of their last 13 games. It kind of feels like the Stephen Strasburg situation let some wind out of their sails.

This is not an article saying the Phillies will make the playoffs or will win nine of their last 11 games.  It is merely a snap shot of what must happen in order for the Phillies to travel to Atlanta for the wild-card game.

With how wacky this 2012 season has been for the Phillies, at least it is fun to still be able to talk about the slim possibility of a playoff berth with just 11 games to play.

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Philadelphia Phillies: What It Would Take for the Phillies to Win the Wild Card

Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence and Joe Blanton all reside elsewhere.  GM Ruben Amaro Jr basically raised the white flag at the trade deadline and the Phillies started playing for 2013. 

But something happened along the way as they played for the future.  The Phillies started winning while no one else in the National League has been able to distance themselves for the second wild-card spot. 

The following slideshow is a step-by-step, series-by-series view on what it will take for the Phillies to travel to Atlanta for the one-game wild-card playoff on Friday, October 5th.  The final standings for the last wild-card spot could very well look like this:

 

1. Philadelphia Phillies  (85-77)  (16-6 rest of the way)

2. St Louis Cardinals  (84-78)   (9-13)

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (84-78)  (10-11)

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (82-80)   (10-13)

5. Milwaukee Brewers  (80-82)  (11-11)

5. Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82)  (11-10)

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Philadelphia Phillies: The 20 Most Significant July Trades in Franchise History

The Phillies have made plenty of “significant” trades over the course of franchise history.  Arguably the best pitcher to ever put on a Phillies uniform, Steve Carlton was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in a trade.  Also, “significant” isn’t always “good.”  They threw in future Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg to the Chicago Cubs along with Larry Bowa in order to acquire Ivan DeJesus.

Neither of those trades occurred in July.  The trade deadline has become more important than ever for a team’s success for the future and the current season.  The following list are of the 20 most significant July trades in team history.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Top 10 Most Surprising Phillies “All-Stars”

Carlos Ruiz played in his first All-Star game last night.

The 33-year-old is a late bloomer and although his defensive skills have never been questioned, not many saw him blossoming into the type of hitter that he has been this season.  The year that the Phillies won the World Series in 2008, Chooch was a second pitcher in the lineup as he hit .219 with an OPS of .620. 

Yuck.

But due to some lean years and the rule that every team must have an All-Star rep, the Phillies have had a few odd selections over the years.  The next 10 slides will give you the 10 most surprising Phillie All- Stars.

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Philadelphia Phillies: All Star Break Numbers to Chew On

Arguably the most disappointing first half of Phillies baseball in franchise history as mercifully come to an end. The team that won a record 102 games last season is on pace to finish 69-93 this season. 

Two staples of this historic Phillies’ five-year run, center fielder Shane Victorino and starting pitcher Cole Hamels, more than likely will be in different uniforms this time next month—with possibly a few others joining them. 

Incredibly, the Phillies of 2012 are actually scoring more runs per game than last year’s team after 87 games.  This year’s team is averaging 4.23 runs per game while, at the 87 game mark last season, the Phils were averaging 4.14 runs per game. 

Yes, it’s close, but why the huge disparity in games won? 

The Phils were 55-32 after 87 games last season and 18 games worse than that this season. With more runs scored. Unreal.

That brings us to the runs allowed department. This time last season, the Phils had allowed just 3.23 runs per game. This season? 4.55. 

It’s been a combination of injuries to Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Vance Worley, Michael Stutes, David Herndon, and Jose Contreras, in addition to an awful bullpen.  Chad Qualls has already pitched his way out of town while Antonio Bastardo is making 2011 look like a fluke. 

I mean, it’s gotten so bad that retreads like Brian Sanches have had to pitch in big situations this season.

For fun, Let’s cut the 87 games into thirds: 2011 versus 2012.

 

Games 1-29:   

2011 record 20-9, 4.45 runs for and 3.28 runs against.

2012 record 14-15, 3.79 runs for and 3.76 runs against.

Minus sluggers Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, the 2012 squad got off to a slow start at the plate while the pitching was decent enough to keep them afloat. Cliff Lee only made three starts due to an oblique injury, but was sensational. 

However,  the Phillies went 0-3 in those starts scoring a total of three runs combined. In 2011, they were 3-3 in Cliff’s starts in the first 29 games. The offense hit only 24 home runs in the first 29 games while they hit just 21 in 2012.

 

Games 30-58:  

2011 record 14-15, 3.45 runs for and 3.69 runs against.

2012 record 14-15, 4.52 runs for and 4.41 runs against.

 

An identical record for 2011 and 2012 for games 30-58 while the 2012 team started hitting the long ball better with an average of one home run per game with 29.

The 2012 team went 7-9 in games started by Halladay, Lee and Hamels. The 2011 club hit just 23 home runs in the 29 games while they went 12-7 in games started by Halladay, Lee and Hamels.

 

Games 59-87:

2011 record 21-8, 4.41 runs for and 2.72 runs against

2012 record  9-20, 4.38 runs for and 5.48 runs against

 

Huge disparity year over year on the mound. The 2012 staff gave up twice as many runs per game while the offense was basically the same. 

The 2012 bats slugged 34 home runs in the 29 games while the 2011 team could hit just 24. 

The big difference? In 19 of the 29 games, the 2011 team allowed the opposition three runs or less. 

This year? That only happened seven times, and the Phillies won just four of those games. The 2011 team went 18-1 in the 19 games they allowed three runs or less.

 

Through 87 Games:

2008  48-39, 5.08 runs per game  4.10 allowed. Top HR hitters—Utley (24), Howard (22), Burrell (21)  

Interesting stat: the Phils were 13-4 in games started by Kyle Kendrick at the 87 game mark.

2009  49-38, 5.33 runs per game  4.74 allowed. Top HR hitters—Ibanez (24), Howard (23), Utley (21)

Interesting stat: 13 times the Phils had scored in double digits, this season three times.

2010  47-40, 4.71 runs per game  4.16 allowed. Top HR hitters—Howard (17), Victorino (14), Werth (13)

Interesting stat: on his way to the Cy Young award, the Phils were just 11-8 when Halladay started.

2011  55-32,  4.14 runs per game  3.23 allowed.  Top HR hitters—Howard (18), Ibanez (10), Victorino (9)

Interesting stat: the Phillies had won 38 games started by Halladay/Lee/Hamels, more than the entire total of the ’12 team.

2012  37-50, 4.23 runs per game  4.55 allowed.  Top HR hitters—Pence (16), Ruiz (13), Wigginton (9)

Interesting stat: the Phils are 4-9 in games started by Kyle Kendrick and 4-10 in games started by Cliff Lee.

 

So, Ruben Amaro Jr.’s philosophy was to win with pitching. He went out and signed Cliff Lee to the megadeal prior to last season when he already had “three aces” in Halladay, Hamels and Roy Oswalt. 

However, it appears the Phillies won a World Series because they could mash the ball out of the ballpark and had a bullpen to slam the door. Amaro went away from that.

Why? Was he wanting to distinguish his legacy from Pat Gillicks? Could be. 

But, the Phils no longer hit home runs while other teams come into Citizens Bank Park and light the place up.  No team in baseball has lost more home games than the Phillies.

Also, they can no longer hold leads, for their bullpen is full of inexperience and marginal prospects.

When they won it all it was with one ace in Hamels. For his career, the Phillies have won nine of the 13 games Hamels has started in the postseason.

Hamels has a great shot to pitch in the postseason again this season but, unfortunately, it won’t be with the Phillies.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Top 10 Shocking Numbers at the Midway Point

The 2012 Philadelphia Phillies have had an extremely disappointing first half. 

It hasn’t been all that shocking considering the loss of stars Chase Utley & Ryan Howard.  Also, Roy Halladay went down and the team really went south from there. 

They have since welcomed Utley back and celebrated by losing six straight.  Not the type of season most Phillies’ fans or players envisioned.

GM Ruben Amaro has his hands full this month and it might be the last month Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino play as Phillies. 

Here are the top 10 most shocking numbers of the first half of the Phillies’ season.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Is 1979 Repeating Itself in 2012?

The Phillies were coming off three consecutive NL East titles in 1979 and three very disappointing NLCS playoff losses.  They shocked the baseball world by signing Pete Rose to play first base and acquired second basemen Manny Trillo in a trade with the Chicago Cubs.  Not only did they look to be primed for another playoff run, they looked even better than they did in the previous three seasons.

However, after sprinting out of the gate to a 27-16 start, injuries to Greg Luzinski, Manny Trillo, Larry Christenson and Larry Bowa saw them go into a tailspin that dropped their record to 65-67 and as a result, they were buried behind the Pittsburgh Pirates and Montreal Expos.  They were able to right the ship toward the end of the season, winning 13 of their last 20, but it was too little too late, and the Phils finished the 1979 season 84-78 and in fourth place.

When spring training came around in 1980, it was widely known that the nucleus of Mike Schmidt, Bob Boone and Bake McBride, as well as Bowa and Luzinski, could be broken up if they did not win now.  We all know what happened in 1980, as the Phillies won their first-ever World Series championship.

In essence, the team needed to take a step back before it could move forward again.

That brings us to 2012.  The team is coming off two extremely disappointing playoff exits and a World Series defeat in 2009.  Injuries have decimated the team, losing significant amounts of time from stars Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay.  Many others have spent time on the shelf as the season slowly and painfully slips away.

The pessimistic Phillies fan can see this as a possible “beginning of the end” of arguably the best run in Philadelphia Phillies history.  The core has aged and the minor league system doesn’t have capable reinforcements to turn this thing around.  The optimist can point to 1979.  The team needs to be humbled and take a step back to taste failure to bring the hunger back.

2013 should have enough talent to make another run if the team remains healthy.  That’s the key when dealing with an old team.  Halladay will be 36 while Lee will turn 34.  Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley will be 34. Howard will be 33. 

It’s possible Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino will be gone, while Placido Polanco will definitely be gone. There is a ton of uncertainty but at the same time, the ’80 season started the same way. 

Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has his work cut out for him between the 2012 trading deadline and 2013 spring training.  Can he get younger by dealing Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino at the trade deadline?  The ’80 squad was energized with young talent like Lonnie Smith, Keith Moreland, Bob Walk and Marty Bystrom.

Does Amaro have what it takes to make this team relevant again? A lot will be riding on him to make 2012 look like 1979…and 2013 to look like 1980.

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Philadelphia Phillies: More Thoughts on Cliff Lee

In summary…I was roasted.  Readers told me I was a buffoon, ignorant, idiotic and stupid.

And I agree.  My column, “Phillies Fans Should Be Fed Up With Cliff Lee,” was a little harsh and unfair.  Maybe more so to Phillies fans than Lee, but still unfair. Phillies fans have always known when they should or shouldn’t be fed up with a player. 

They’ve booed Schmidt and Bowa, Daulton and Hollins, Howard and Hamels.  They don’t need a buffoon like me to tell them they should be fed up with someone.  I imagine though, the small minority who understood what I was saying now agrees with my initial assessment and have reached the point of being fed up.  Those who blasted me are at least seeing a very microscopic truth to my points.

With that being said, the signing of Lee is not looking good.  It will look even worse if signing Lee means that Cole Hamels’ future is anywhere else but Philadelphia.  One more odd twist, if Lee doesn’t turn around his disastrous ’12 season, the Phillies will not see the postseason, which means Hamels will more likely be dealt before the trade deadline.

For $21 million this season, the Phillies have received an 0-5 record with a 4.13 ERA from Lee.  Has he had some bad luck?  Sure!  Has he received consistent run support?  Absolutely not!  But a guy like Barry Zito has six wins with a better ERA playing for a suspect offense.  The Padres’ Clayton Richard has five wins for the Padres. Both Zito and Richard have better ERAs than Lee as well.

Lee led the majors in shutouts in 2011.  Obviously with zero wins he doesn’t have one this season.  However, Kyle Kendrick and the Astros‘ Lucas Harrell have one.  Former Phillie Kevin Millwood has one in the AL.  Even Ervin Santana, Philip Humber, Luke Hochever and Clay Buchholz have shutouts and carry ERAs over five! 

What’s the point?  A pitcher being paid like Lee—and the caliber of Lee—should take the ball and shove it down the other team’s throat from time to time, like he did with the Phillies in 2009, with the Rangers in 2010 and last year.  Where is that this season?

I’m sure some Lee apologists will put together some fancy videos attempting to prove it’s not Lee’s fault and that’s fine….do what you gotta do to feel better about the guy who snubbed the Yankees and Rangers to come back to Philly.  Sabermetrics’ guys let me hear you again.  I heard you the first time and accept your passion and rationale.

Me?  I’ll be wearing my dunce cap, sitting in the corner and hoping Lee turns things around so the Phils can overcome this 10-game deficit.  If he doesn’t and Hamels is pitching somewhere else in 2013, I personally will be fed up. Justifiably so.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Some Hope in Looking Back at June 17 Standings

The hope for the 2012 season was to stay afloat until stars Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return from the disabled list.  Ace starter Roy Halladay was added to that list when he went down three weeks ago.  The Phillies were doing a pretty good job of hanging around and after 53 games were a season-high three games above .500 and just 2.5 games out of first.

Then, simultaneously, the Phillies went ice cold while the Nationals took off.  The Phils have gone 3-11 in their last 14 games, dropping to 31-36 and nine game back of first.  It hasn’t just been their bats this time either.  Since Roy Halladay was placed on the DL, the Phils have gone 6-12 and have averaged 5.3 runs allowed per game. Before Doc went on the DL, they were allowing 3.9 per game.  Here is some more ugliness since Halladay went to the shelf:

Cliff Lee: four starts, 0-14.72 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Cole Hamels: four starts, 2-2  6.07 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Joe Blanton:  four starts, 2-2  5.74 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Kyle Kendrick: three starts, 1-2  7.80 ERA, 1.80 WHIP

Vance Worley:  three starts, 0-1  2.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

 

Only Worley has been effective during this stretch.  It’s also been 19 games since the Phillies won a game where they scored fewer than six runs.  That’s asking a lot out of an offense that is forced to roll the Hector Luna’s and Mike Fontenot’s of the world out there on a consistent basis.

So the question has been asked many times recently: are the Phillies doomed?

Taking a look at the June 17th standings the previous four years, the answer is no.  Teams that were in first place or would have been the league’s wild card representative if the season ended on June 17 have made the playoffs 68.8 percent of the time.  Naturally that indicates that 31.2 percent of the time a team that is not in the field on June 17 has made the playoffs.

This time last season, the Red Sox, Indians and Giants were all in first place and failed to make the playoffs.  The Braves would have been the wild card team on June 17 and collapsed as well, so the percentage was 50 percent last year. 

Even more drastic, the 2005 Houston Astros went on to win the National League pennant.  Want to know what their record was on June 17, 2005?  How about 27-38. 

Two seasons earlier, the Florida Marlins won the World Series.  Their record on June 17, 2003 was 34-38.  Last year’s World Champs were 38-33 on this date and the AL pennant winners, the Texas Rangers, were 37-34.

The Phillies still have hope, but a number of things need to turn around to go on a run like the ’05 Astros, the ’03 Marlins, the ’07 Rockies or the ’10 Phillies who were 34-30 and in third place.

• Utley and Howard must come back and produce near the all-star level we are accustomed to seeing from them.
• Halladay must return to his Cy Young ways.
• Lee needs to pitch like a $21-million pitcher.
• Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino need to return to their catalyst ways setting the table for the big boppers to drive in.
• Someone, anyone needs to step up in the bullpen besides Jonathan Papelbon.
• Charlie Manuel needs to pitch Papelbon more in tight games.  Eight walk-off losses in which Papelbon didn’t even pitch, is beyond unacceptable.

Yes, things aren’t looking good for the ’12 Philadelphia Phillies but it’s far from over.  A number of teams have “righted the ship” and made their way to the postseason.  It’s a tall order this season, but it can be done.

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Cliff Lee: Why Philadelphia Phillies Fans Should Be Fed Up with Losses

OK, I get it.  Lee hasn’t received much run support this season and wins is an overrated stat in determining the effectiveness of a starting pitcher.  With that being said, the Philadelphia Phillies and their fans should be expecting—and getting—more from Cliff Lee.

After the Phillies’ 5-4 loss Sunday, Lee is now 0-3 with a 3.18 ERA.  He has struck out 74 in 70.2 innings while walking just 13.

This season, Lee is the third-highest-paid pitcher in all of baseball, behind the Mets’ Johan Santana and the Yankees’ CC Sabathia. For $21.5 million, Lee is not getting it done, and at some point, he lost the ability to shut teams down once the Phillies have the lead.

It started in the NLDS last season against the eventual World Champion St. Louis Cardinals. After the Phillies roared back to crush the Cardinals 11-6 in Game 1, they handed Lee a 4-0 lead that should have put the NLDS on ice. 

However, Lee was torched by the likes of Ryan Theriot, Jon Jay and Rafael Furcal to blow the lead, the game, the series and the season.

For some reason, though, Lee gets a free pass from Phillies fans. Why?  I guess because he chose to come back to Philadelphia and spurned the New York Yankees.  But it’s not like he came back as a charity case.  Again, Lee is the third-highest-paid pitcher in all of baseball.

Let’s examine some of Lee’s starts this season:

• Had a 1-0 lead in the sixth vs the Pirates. Lee couldn’t hold it, Phils lose 2-1.
• Next start gave up three in the first to the Mets, Phils lose 5-2.
• Next time facing the Mets, had a 2-1 lead in the sixth, gave up a run and only lasts six innings in a 10-6 loss.
• Against Boston, allowed five runs in first three innings, burying the Phils as they lose 5-1.
• Staked a 2-0 lead early vs. the Cardinals on May 25th, then gives up a solo run in three consecutive innings to fall behind 3-2 only to be bailed out this time by the Phillies’ bats.
• Gave up a two-run double to Elian Herrera in his last start with two outs in the eighth to relinquish a 1-0 lead.
• And, today, given a 4-1 lead, promptly allows a two-out, three-run bomb to Steve Tolleson.

Now, look at these teams and think of how offensively challenged they are:

• Pittsburgh Pirates
• New York Mets
• San Francisco Giants
• New York Mets
• Houston Astros
• Boston Red Sox
• St Louis Cardinals
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers (minus Matt Kemp)
• Baltimore Orioles

That’s who the third-highest-paid pitcher in baseball has been asked to face this season.  The Cardinals and Red Sox have solid lineups.  The rest do not. Yet the Phillies are 3-7 when Lee starts.  A .300 winning percentage—unacceptable.

At some point, a pitcher of Lee’s caliber needs to shut an opponent down when given a lead.  This Phillies team is awful once the other team comes from behind to tie the game up or take the lead.  A definite lack of fight. That’s another story altogether.

The free pass should be up for Lee.  He’s being paid like an ace, it’s time to win like an ace.

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