Where Philadelphia Phillies, Playoff Contenders Would Be If Season Ended Today

One-third of the season has come and gone and the Phillies have spent the majority of it in last place in the NL East. 

It’s not the start that Ruben Amaro or Charlie Manuel envisioned.  There is still plenty of baseball to play, but it’s typically the 40-game mark that determines what kind of team you have. 

If the Phillies do not get anything from Ryan Howard and Chase Utley and if they constantly have a starting pitcher on the DL (first Cliff Lee, Vance Worley and now Roy Halladay), then this team is probably right where it’s going to stay. 

They project to finish the season with a 78-84 record after their 9-6 win over the Baltimore Orioles last night.  Their only hope for the 2012 season are comebacks from Howard, Utley, and Halladay….and they must come back and play at something approaching an All-Star level.

With that being said, here is an updated look at how the postseason would look if the season ended today:

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Philadelphia Phillies: Phillies Lineup on August 1st

After 56 games, the Phillies are a .500 team that have spent the majority of the season in the cellar of the National League East.  One of the reasons the Phillies have underachieved this season is the injuries they suffered even before the season began. Some Phillies have thrived with the opportunities for playing time, mainly Juan Pierre and Freddy Galvis.  Others have not stepped up at all….see John Mayberry.

Word is that Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are not close to returning, however, their return to the lineup is at least closer than where it has been. Howard is probably a month away from the big leagues as he tries to strengthen a calf that has lost muscle, and Utley has just started to play extended Spring Training games in Florida.

The competition in the National League East is pretty tight.  However, there isn’t really a powerhouse team that’s going to leave the rest of the division in the dust.  Trades made between now and the trade deadline could determine who gets the edge in this division and if someone can break the Phillies five-season-long NL East Championship streak? It doesn’t matter what trades are made, though, teams are not going to be able to add players of Howard’s and Utley’s caliber. 

So how does Charlie Manuel pencil in a lineup when he gets all of his horses back?  There are rumors that Utley won’t necessarily come back as a second basemen.  But if he’s not at second, where will he play?  There are three logical choices.

1) Third base-  If Manuel moves Utley to third, this bumps Polanco out of the lineup, along with his stellar glove and a bat that has continuously gotten better as the season has gone on. 

2) First base-  If Howard wasn’t coming back, Utley would be a nice fit at first. However, there is absolutely nowhere else where Howard can play, so the big man stays at first.

3) Left field-  Hmmmm, interesting.  Utley hasn’t played outfield in the major leagues.  A couple of second basemen have made that transition the past few seasons and have done okay.  Martin Prado of the Braves is a solid left fielder, while Alfonso Soriano of the Cubs will never come close to winning a Gold Glove, but he’s good enough to get by.  Like Pat Burrell and Raul Ibanez, Utley could play left and would probably even be an upgrade defensively over those two.  And obviously, they won quite a few games with those subpar defenders in left.

If Utley moves to left, that leaves impressive rookie Galvis at second where his Gold Glove defense and improving stick can continue to develop.  So come August 1st, when the Phillies have played their best ball in recent history, this is how Charlie Manuel should write the lineup:

1. Jimmy Rollins- SS  

2. Chase Utley- LF

3. Hunter Pence- RF

4. Ryan Howard- 1B

5. Carlos Ruiz- C

6. Shane Victorino- CF

7. Placido Polanco- 3B

8. Freddy Galvis- 2B

Rollins needs to get on base more for any of this to work. At this stage in his career, Utley is more suited for the two-hole, and it breaks up him and Howard, who both hit left.  If Ruiz continues his torrid pace, he and Pence could switch between the third and fifth spots, but Pence’s speed makes it better to hit him in front of Howard.  Victorino hit sixth quite a bit when Jayson Werth hit second and Burrell was fifth during the 2008 season so he’s fine there.

The odd man out in all this is Pierre.  He’s been a fine addition to the 2012 Phillies, but when Utley and Howard return, it would be best to have him off the bench late in games to pinch run or pinch hit.

The 2012 season is not a lost cause yet, even with injuries to Howard and Utley, while Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Vance Worley have all been shelved at some point.  But take a look at the last two World Champs: ’11 St Louis Cardinals and ’10 San Francisco Giants.  Both of those teams were hovering around .500 after the All Star break and got hot at the right time to go all the way.  For the Phillies to do the same, the above lineup is the way to go.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Projected Stats at the 1/3 Season Mark

One-third of the season is complete for the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies. They are 28-26, which translates to a full season of 84-78. 84-78 will not get them into the postseason, and frankly, would be quite a disappointing season.

Here’s where the Phils were at the one-third mark the past few seasons and their record the rest of the way:

 

2007: 26-28 (.482) and 63-45 (.583)

2008: 30-24 (.556)  and  62-46 (.574)

2009: 32-22 (.593)  and  61-47 (.565)

2010: 30-24  (.556) and 67-41 (.620)

2011: 34-20 (.630) and  68-40 (.630)

 

2009 was the only season where they didn’t improve, but a 61-47 mark for this season’s team would put them at 89-73, which should be good enough for the postseason this year. The question is, do the Phillies have the horses to get it done?  If Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay return to some sort of form of their former selves, no other team will be able to say they have added that kind of firepower at the trade deadline.

As for the rest of the roster, let’s see how their numbers are projecting over an entire season.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Do the Phillies Know How to Evaluate Their Own Talent?

Dominic Brown: Untouchable.  Jake Diekman: Off the radar.

As the Phillies try for a sixth consecutive NL Eastern Division crown, it’s obvious this season will be more challenging than the previous divisional crowns. Injuries and age are starting to take their toll and the latest blow, a shoulder strain to ace Roy Halladay, might be too much to overcome.

The Phillies aren’t the only team battling injuries this season. Most franchises dip into their minor league system for help. Seeing that some of the bigger surprises this season have been Freddy Galvis and Jake Diekman, it makes you wonder if the brass of the Phillies know what they are doing when evaluating talent.

A couple of outfielders were deemed untouchable midway through the 2009 season when the Phils went shopping for a pitcher. Those two outfielders were Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor.

Taylor, 6’5″ 255 lbs, was a fifth-round draft pick in 2007. He was eventually included in the deal that brought Roy Halladay to the Phillies. The Blue Jays quickly flipped him to the Oakland A’s, where he appears to have turned into a “quadruple-A” type player. He’s flashed plenty of power and speed in the minors, but that hasn’t translated well at the major league level and now he’s just another 26-year old in AAA. 

Brown was the real prize. It was thought that the Phillies wouldn’t include Brown in any deal; Not for Halladay, not for Roy Oswalt, not for Hunter Pence. Brown has done nothing but regress since last season. He’s actually living up to being a 20th-round selection of the 2006 draft and at 25, has the five-tool prospect to a one-dimensional

In 259 AAA at-bats since the start of the 2011 season, Brown has hit .259 with just three home runs.  Yes, it appears injuries have derailed him, but even in his brief call-up in 2010 when he appeared to be on top of his game, Brown looked extremely raw, both at the plate and in right field.

How about Greg Golson, who  was traded straight up for John Mayberry following the 2008 season.  After the 2007 season, Golson was listed as the Phillies minor leaguer with the following attributes: best power, fastest baserunner, best athlete, best defensive outfielder and best outfield arm.

 

Check out the Baseball America 2012 Projected Lineup from an article in early 2009:

C- Lou Marson (dealt to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee trade)

1b- Ryan Howard

2b- Chase Utley

SS- Jimmy Rollins

3b- Jason Donald (dealt to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee trade)

LF- Michael Taylor (dealt to Toronto in the Roy Halladay trade)

CF- Shane Victorino

RF- Domonic Brown

 

SP- Cole Hamels, Carlos Carrasco (Lee), Kyle Drabek (Halladay), Brett Myers, Joe Blanton

CL- Brad Lidge

 

Yes, these are rankings based from a publication, but they’re basically from evaluators within the organization.

Freddy Galvis is arguably making a case for “Rookie of the Year” in the National League.  His defense at second has been spectacular and he has held his own offensively.  Why was there any hesitation this spring in making him the guy?

Lefty Jake Diekman was so far off the Phillies’ radar he didn’t even make the Phillies “Top 10 Prospect” list. That’s after this 6’4″ leftty struck out 83 hitters in AA last season in 65 innings of work while allowing just 47 hits. How is a tall lanky lefty who throws 95 MPH dismissed like that?

The answer is simple. The gang in charge of evaluating young talent within the Phillies’ organization are struggling to evaluate their own, and others for that matter. The jury is still out on the three they received from Seattle in the Cliff Lee deal. JC Ramirez, Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies have not done anything to set the world on fire, and that goes back to the evaluators as well.

Maybe I’m being a little harsh, but the Phillies are nearing a critical stage of the 2012 season. The timetables on Ryan Howard and Chase Utley’s return are still way up in the air, while Halladay is gone until mid to late July. It’s times like these when other parts of the organization need to show their value. Understanding exactly what they have in the minors can’t be blindfolded “wins” like Diekman or blatant fails like Brown.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Can Raul Valdes Turn into JC Romero?

In 2007, the Philadelphia Phillies were desperate to find someone to fill the vital role of left-handed reliever in the bullpen.

Matt Smith and Fabio Castro couldn’t come close to finding the strike zone. After that, they tried rushing 24-year-old Mike Zagurski from Single A to the majors and, in 25 appearances, he posted a 5.91 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. 

For a team to make it to the postseason for the first time in 14 seasons, they had to find someone to stabilize a shaky bullpen. That someone turned out to be JC Romero.

Romero was a situational lefty in Minnesota from 1999-2005. He was traded to the Los Angels Angels for Alexi Casilla after the 2005 season and then signed as a free agent with the Boston Red Sox after the 2006 season. Even though he had a 3.15 ERA in 23 appearances with the Red Sox, they released him in June and the Phillies quickly swooped him up.

Romero’s transition to the National League was outstanding. For the remainder of the 2007 season, he posted a remarkable 1.24 ERA in 51 appearances and was a key part on the Phillies’ first NL East title since 1993.

In 2008, Romero appeared in 81 games, posting a solid 2.75 ERA and he ended up winning two World Series games while not allowing a run in eight postseason games.

The quiet acquisition of Romero was key for the Phillies in winning the division from 2007-10. Last season, Antonio Bastardo surfaced as a left-hander manager Charlie Manuel could depend on to get crucial outs late in ballgames.

Bastardo is still holding up pretty well this season, but a new lefty has arrived basically out of nowhere and is now gaining Manuel’s confidence.

Raul Valdes is no spring chicken. The Cuban defector was signed by the Chicago Cubs as a free agent in 2004 and has subsequently bounced around quite a bit. He reached the majors for the first time with the New York Mets in 2010, going 3-3 with a 4.91 ERA in 58.2 innings.

After the 2010 season, he signed with the St. Louis Cardinals and was pitching fine, but was placed on waivers in August. The New York Yankees claimed him and, in six games with them, he posted a 2.70 ERA.

Once again, he was granted free agency after the season and the Phillies signed him on November 10th.

Valdes was impressive in spring training, appearing in 10 games allowing opponents to hit just 1.89 and a sparking 0.88 WHIP. His 1.32 ERA in the spring was the best on the staff by anyone who pitched 10 or more innings. Raul was one of the final cuts and went down to Lehigh Valley. His most impressive stat at AAA was issuing just one walk in 21 innings of work.

Manuel loves being able to bring a guy in out of the pen who throws strikes. Valdes has been a strike machine.

The Phillies’ 10-9 victory last night was an absolute roller-coaster of a game and even though he only pitched 2/3 of an inning, Valdes calmed things down. He faced two batters, striking out Cards prospect Matt Adams, and became the pitcher of record when the Phillies took the lead for good in the top of the sixth. 

Since Valdes was recalled, he has pitched 5.1 innings, allowed just one hit, hasn’t walked anyone and struck out seven. 

The Phillies have some bullpen arms on the shelf right now, but when they regain their health, it will be extremely hard for GM Ruben Amaro Jr to send Valdes down. So far, he looks like JC Romero reincarnated and with better control.

The Phillies’ 23-23 record can be seen as somewhat of a disappointment so far, but it’s just one game off their World Championship season pace as they were 24-22 at this point in 2008.

To get back to the postseason, Valdes might be a key left-hander to calm the waters. Look for Manuel to call his number more and more as the season progresses.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Quarter-Mark All-NL East Team

As we come up to the 25 percent mark of the season, it’s time to acknowledge the All-NL East team to date.  Just 5.5 games separate first place from last place so there is still so much to be determined. 

Big stars such as Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Mike Morse haven’t even seen the field yet but the following have all performed at a high level making them front-runners for this season’s All-Star Game in Kansas City.

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Philadelphia Phillies: If the Season Ended Today

The Phillies have owned the NL East since the 2007 season and there is still plenty of time for them to turn things around this season. Typically, GMs and ownership use the 40-game mark to evaluate the team.

Well, Ruben Amaro Jr. rumors of kicking the tires on possibly dealing stars such as Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino surfaced this week and if the Phillies do not have plans to sign them after this season, Amaro should deal them. I’m not saying I want that to happen, but it’s better than losing them for nothing.

So while Phillies fans hope Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return and spark the offense and pray the team can improve on its 3-9 record when aces Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee start, let’s see how the season would look if it ended today around the NL and AL.

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Philadelphia Phillies Are 0-8 in the Last 8 Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee Starts

All along, the rally cry was, “Don’t worry, as long as the Phillies have Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels at the top of the rotation, all will be OK.” Pfffffft.

That didn’t last very long, did it? 

Halladay got off to a terrific start, winning his first three starts. But since then, for the first time since he’s been in a Phillies uniform, the team has lost four straight games with Roy on the bump. 

Lee, who hasn’t pitched badly while healthy, is still seeking his first win on the season.

More concerning is that the bats really aren’t killing them like they did in the first three weeks of the season. In the first 20 games, the Phillies went 9-11 while averaging 3.2 runs per game. In the last 12 games, they have gone 5-7 while averaging 4.8 runs per game.

This is not an indictment against the performances of Halladay and Lee. 

Without a doubt, they both have pitched well enough to win ballgames during this combined eight-game skid. Lee carries a very impressive 2.17 ERA, while Doc has a 3.28 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. 

But it’s a major concern when the team’s record is 3-8 when two-thirds of its aces are taking the hill. Take away games started by Halladay/Lee, and the Phillies’ record is 11-10.

While the offense is showing signs of life, the bullpen is in absolute shambles. 

Is there really anyone closing out games that Charlie Manuel should have confidence in besides Jonathan Papelbon? 

Even Antonio Bastardo looks like a different pitcher than what he was in 2011. Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee aren’t putting him into similar pressure spots as they did last season.

Kyle Kendrick has been a beach ball-throwing torch. Journeyman Chad Qualls started off well but has been getting ripped the last week, and he’s probably miscast in the eighth inning, but who else do they have? 

Jose Contreras has a 8.59 ERA, and opponents are hitting .345 off of him.

So, it’s great to have Halladay/Lee at the top of the rotation, but it’s not enough. The Phillies and GM Ruben Amaro Jr. need to figure out Plan B and quickly. 

When Chase Utley and Ryan Howard return, that’s not going to turn Kendrick and Contreras and Co. into Cy Young. At this point last season, Halladay and Lee already had seven wins between them. That’s more than twice the amount of wins the Phillies have this season when those two take the hill. 

That trend needs to stop for this team to sniff .500.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Multiple Concerns with Roy Halladay

There was a lot of talk during spring training about Roy Halladay‘s velocity being down.  That was quickly forgotten when Halladay won his first three starts, compiling an ERA of 1.17 while allowing just three earned runs in 23 innings.

Since then, the Phillies have lost three straight Halladay starts.  How rare is that? It never happened in 2011. As a matter of fact, the Phillies didn’t even lose their third Halladay start until the 54-game mark last season and didn’t lose their fourth until the 95th game.

The last time the Phillies lost three consecutive Halladay starts was 2010 when they lost 2-0 to Florida, 8-3 to the Yankees and 4-1 to Minnesota.  Those were in games numbered 58, 62 and 67. After their first three wins with Halladay this season, the Phillies were an amazing 49-19 (.721) with him on the mound. 

So are there valid reasons to be concerned about Halladay?

Well, first off, Halladay left the Phillies after the game Wednesday night to attend to a personal matter.  While that wouldn’t indicate anything is wrong with him physically, something mentally could be affecting his performance.

Halladay has always been known as a cerebral pitcher who prepares meticulously for every start. Personal issues could be affecting that preparation.

On the physical side, Halladay’s velocity is down. He typically would hit 93-94 mph in 2010 and 2011,  and he’s just not getting there this season.  Over his last three starts, Halladay is 0-2 with a 6.05 ERA. 

In Wednesday night’s game, after being given a generous six-run lead, Halladay started pounding the strike zone. But the Braves were able to bleed a few hits together.  Then Halladay hung a fat cutter in the middle of the plate and Phillies’ killer Brian McCann destroyed it.

Halladay not being able to make it through the sixth inning depleted the bullpen and forced Michael Schwimer and Brian Sanches to pitch in unfamiliar roles.

In summary, yes, the Phillies and their fans do need to be concerned about Halladay.  His mental makeup and physical tools both appear to be trending downward. Ruben Amaro’s master plan of winning another championship based on pitching might be blowing up right in front of his eyes.

Cliff Lee is already on the shelf.  Wouldn’t it be something if when Ryan Howard and Chase Utley finally get healthy, two of the three stud pitchers the Phillies trot out there are unable to perform.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 2012 Struggles at the Plate Are Nothing New

There’s no doubt about it.  The 2012 Philadelphia Phillies are off to a dreadful start at the plate.  If it wasn’t for a terrific pitching staff, there would be no way this team is at .500 after 14 games.  What’s more of a surprise is how fans seem “up in arms” about their sticks as if they haven’t seen anything like this before.  That’s far from the truth.

Through 14 games this season, the Phillies have scored 41 runs for an average of 2.92 runs per game.  Their team batting average is .247 and they have only hit seven home runs.  Even more brutal, they are 0-5 when they give up more than two runs in a game.  They are leaving little margin for error out of the starting rotation.  They probably have the mindset of “If I give up a three-run home run at any point, we will lose.”

This is not a new thing for this franchise, however, as collective slumps and lack of hitting started back in the 2009 season and has had stretches of ineptitude ever since then.  Check this out:

 

Recent 14-Game Stretches

2009: Games 122-135, scored 37 runs (2.6 per game) for a 6-8 record.

2010: Games 39-52, scored 25 runs (1.8 per game) for a 4-10 record. Six home runs in those games.

2010: Games 115-128, scored 44 runs (3.1 per game) for a 7-7 record. Six home runs in those games.

2010: Postseason vs. Cincinnati and San Francisco, scored 33 runs for 3.7 a game and a 5-4 record.

2011: Games 9-22, scored 39 runs (2.8 per game) for a 9-5 record. Nine home runs in those games.

2011: Games 31-44, scored 35 runs (2.5 per game) for a 6-8 record. Eight home runs in those games.

2011: Games 144-157, scored 33 runs (2.4 per game) for a 4-10 record. Seven home runs in those games.

2011: Postseason vs. St Louis, scored just 10 runs in the last four games (2.5 per game).

 

So while this lack of offensive prowess has been frustrating for the Phillies and their fans to open the 2012 season it is also nothing new.  The Phils won 97 games in 2010 and went through a stretch that saw them go to New York to take on the Mets and they didn’t score a single run the entire series.  That was with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the lineup. For disclosure purposes, Jimmy Rollins was missing for that series.

Just last season, early in the season, the Phils’ bats looked a lot like this.  Here is the breakdown of games nine through 22:

Game nine: Win vs. Atlanta, 3-0

Game 10: L at Washington, 4-7

Game 11: W at Washington, 3-2

Game 12: W at Washington, 4-0

Game 13: L vs. Florida, 3-4

Game 14: W vs. Florida, 3-2

Game 15: L vs. Milwaukee, 3-6

Game 16: L vs. Milwaukee, 0-9

Game 17: W vs. Milwaukee, 4-3

Game 18: W at San Diego, 3-0

Game 19: W at San Diego, 2-0

Game 20: W at San Diego, 4-2

Game 21: W at San Diego, 3-1

Game 22: L at Arizona, 0-4

An entire 14-game stretch where the Phillies never scored more than four runs in a game and they still went 9-5.  Mercy!  Now that was without Utley in the lineup and prior to trading for Hunter Pence.  The moral of all of this is to relax. 

Charlie Manuel’s team can be a maddening bunch and when they struggle at the plate it can take some time to bust out.  Their hitters have shown a history of success and they will get hot.  Hopefully Utley and Howard can return with some sort of resemblance of their old selves and the Phillies heat up in September just in time for a playoff run. 

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