Philadelphia Phillies: Giving Ruben Amaro a Failing Grade for the Offseason

It’s April 19, it’s early. The Philadelphia Phillies are 5-7 and 4.5 games behind the first-place Washington Nationals. The offense has been pathetic the majority of the time, while the starting rotation has not won a game if the Phils give up more than two runs.

In the San Francisco series that just wrapped up, the Phillies scored four runs in the first inning of the first game. They only scored three runs in the next 28 innings.

So how did we get here?  First off, we all knew Ryan Howard blew out his Achilles last season and that he would miss the first couple months of the season. Next, Chase Utley’s chronic knee issues flared up again and the timetable for his return is still unknown.

Those are your No. 3 and No. 4 hitters. Any team is going to struggle taking those guys out of their lineup. How would the Detroit Tigers be without Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder? Think the Miami Marlins would survive very long without Hanley Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton? Are the Los Angeles Dodgers off to a great start if Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are on the shelf? 

No way. So we understand the Phillies are basically playing with one hand tied behind their back.

General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. had a full offseason to figure out what he was going to do at first base without Howard. He had versatile John Mayberry coming back from a promising 2011 season.  Amaro signed future Hall of Famer and former Phillie favorite Jim Thome to help out at first and off the bench.

He traded for Ty Wigginton, who can play first, third, outfield and even some second. Then he signed Laynce Nix to a (gulp) two-year contract which probably even surprised Nix. Finally, speedy veteran outfielder Juan Pierre was invited to spring training.

Let’s start with first base. Amaro never signed a first baseman. Thome hasn’t played there in five years.  Without a doubt, Jim is an upgrade over last season’s Ross Gload, but he is not a first baseman anymore.

Wigginton is a versatile player but a defensive liability wherever he plays. His error at third Wednesday night cost the Phillies the game (besides their absent bats, of course). Nix has always been an outfielder who played eight games at first last season. And Mayberry never played first until last season as insurance for Howard. 

Amaro created a lot of options, but none of them seemed smart. Utley has started a couple of games at first in his career and if he’s back before Howard, Chase should play first and leave Freddy Galvis at second. But still, you have a non-first baseman playing first.

With the thought of Mayberry playing first base some more, Pierre was brought in as an option in left field. I was okay with that (or Scott Podsednik), but if you are going to play Pierre in left, Mayberry must play first. Otherwise, you put together a lineup with one threat to hit the ball out of the park—Hunter Pence. 

Sure, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino will hit a few each year, but don’t ever confuse them for being a home run threat in opposing team’s minds. 

Next, there’s the decision to bring in closer Jonathan Papelbon to a record-breaking deal for a relief pitcher. Amaro was bidding against no one, miscalculated the free agency compensation situation, which cost the Phillies a draft pick, and broke the bank. 

Papelbon is an elite closer, but there were so many closers available. Was it really a desperate need?  Not nearly as much as grabbing a bat either in free agency or through a trade. Michael Cuddyer is sure off to a good start.

And to just pile on some to this “F” of a grade: Placido Polanco is done…finished. He should be the highest-paid late-inning defensive replacement for the rest of the season, since he is just another pitcher in the lineup.  Giving him a three-year contract was not necessary.

So far, the Phillies have not won a game this season when they have given up more than two runs. Yes, it’s very early. No, this is not “knee-jerk”.  But can you honestly say at this point that Amaro has done a good job constructing this team? 

The answer is an extremely confident “no”.  Amaro’s offseason grade is a very confident “F”!

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Philadelphia Phillies: All-Phillies Misery Team for the Past 20 Years

Late last week, I created the “All Phillies Team for the Past 20 Years” and it sparked some good debates, primarily about taking 2008 Cole Hamels over 2011 Cliff Lee for LH starter and not including Shane Victorino as at least the runner up to Lenny Dykstra in centerfield (I’ll stand by Aaron Rowand’s 2007 season).

Now, it’s time for the ugly side.  I considered going back another five years, but then the entire team would be dominated by folks from 1988-1990.

So here goes….make sure you haven’t eaten recently because this one might upset your stomach.

Introducing the All-Phillies Misery Team for the Past 20 Years! Proceed with caution.

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Philadelphia Phillies: The Puzzling Case of Cliff Lee vs. Cole Hamels

I have to say, I’m very confused by Phillies fans sometimes. They are always the first to boo, and they always the first to applaud effort and giving 100 percent. 

Take Laynce Nix for instance.  Early in the game against the Mets Sunday, Nix went after a foul ball, dove straight out like a wide receiver trying to catch an overthrown pass, had it for a second and then lost the ball when he hit the ground.  It was a great attempt, and the Phillies fans let Nix know they appreciated the effort.  It didn’t matter he was seeking his first hit on the season. 

A few weeks ago, I mentioned the thought of trading Cole Hamels to bring an elite bat to the Phillies’ lineup and I was absolutely ripped.  Brandon Phillips was the hypothetical I tossed out since he too was knee deep in contract negotiations at the time like Hamels.  Since then, Phillips has been given a long-term, lucrative deal. 

Hamels has not been given one. 

As it stands right now, Cole will pitch for the Phillies this season and probably walk for absolutely nothing after this season.  This current Phillies nucleus would not have a fat diamond championship ring if it wasn’t for Hamels.  That is a fact.  Hamels was the MVP of the NLCS and the World Series.  When he started in the postseason in 2008, the Phillies went 5-0.

Last night, I did some research and wrote about the “All Phillies Team of the Past 20 years” and named the 2008 Cole Hamels as the left-handed starter with the 2011 Cliff Lee as the runner-up.  I am completely stunned at some of the feedback I have received for taking ’08 Hamels over ’11 Lee.

I mentioned that ’08 was not even Hamels’ best season.  Actually, ’07 and ’11 were probably better regular seasons for him personally. But the ’08 postseason was enough to edge out Lee in my opinion.

Why?

Cole has the ring.  He dominated much like Lee did in the ’09 postseason. Lee went 4-0 in the postseason in 2009 with an eye-popping 1.56 ERA vs. Colorado, L.A. Dodgers and N.Y. Yankees. Cole wasn’t the same pitcher in 2009 and made some comments in the World Series, saying he couldn’t wait for the season to be over with.  Yes, it was a selfish comment, but it was probably honest since his 2009 was nothing like 2008.

Lee was dealt after the ’09 season but got back to Philly as soon as he could for the 2011 season.  Phillies fans went wild about Lee choosing to come back to Philly and shunning the Texas Rangers and, more importantly, the New York Yankees. That was super cool, and Lee’s jersey is still in the top three sold in all of baseball.

But I have to ask, that loyalty and love towards Philadelphia that Lee showed in coming back here, does that buy him a free pass with the fans?

Is it forgotten or overlooked that the Phillies had a one-game-to-none lead over the Cardinals last season and a 4-0 lead in Game 2 with Lee on the hill, and Cliff could not close the deal?  He ended up allowing five runs in the game and the Cards evened the series up.  If Lee shuts St. Louis down in Game 2, like he should have and like he is paid to do, another World Series parade could have happened down Broad Street.  But that didn’t happen.

So do the majority of Phillies fans prefer Cliff Lee over Cole Hamels enough to forget about what Hamels did in 2008? Is it Hamels’ California cool personality vs. Lee’s good-ole-boy, workmanlike mentality that makes him more endearing to the hardworking Philadelphians? Could it be that Lee is locked up for many more seasons, so we choose loyalty to him, like he did to Philly, and we are scared to show that type of loyalty to Hamels without the extension?  Is it forgotten which one of these guys was drafted by the Phillies and has only been in this organization?

I’ve got to say, I am baffled, but ultimately, I’d take 2008 Cole Hamels over 2011 Cliff Lee any day.

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Philadelphia Phillies: All-Phillies Team for the Past 20 Years

The Phillies have seen drastic ups and downs for the past 20 seasons. 

They lost as many as 97 games in 2000 and won as many as 102 in 2011.  They have been to three World Series (1993, 2008, 2009) winning one and have won the division six times (1993, 2007-11).

So who had the best seasons, by position during that stretch to make up the All-Phillies team of the past 20 years?  Who’s the manager and best coach?

Let’s find out.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Time to Cut Bait with Placido Polanco

This is not a panic about the rough start to the season for the Philadelphia Phillies’ bats.  Earlier, I mentioned the Phils should move Carlos Ruiz to the No. 2 spot in the lineup and I’ll stand by that until Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return. What I am saying now is that it’s time to say goodbye to Placido Polanco.

Polanco was basically another pitcher in the lineup in the NLDS against the Cardinals last season and the excuse was a bum elbow that had zapped the little amount of power he carries.  This season, Placido reported to Spring Training 100-percent healthy and ready to go.  However, there is one thing that can’t be stopped as far as Placido Polanco is concerned productivity wise—Father Time.

Check out Polanco’s declining slugging percentage in relation to his age:

2007 (31): .458

2008 (32): .417

2009 (33): .396

2010 (34): .386

2011 (35): .339

Slugging percentage directly measures how a player is driving the ball. Polanco can’t do it anymore.  Best case scenarios are now soft liners over the shortstop or second baseman’s head.

Ruben Amaro Jr. replaced Pedro Feliz after the 2009 season by signing Polanco to a surprising three-year, lucrative contract.  It was similar to the three-year contract given to Raul Ibanez after the 2008 season. For both, it appears the third year was one too many.

The Phillies are going to have a difficult time scoring runs this season.  Even when Howard and Utley come back, this offense will be nothing like it was in 2007, ’08 or ’09.  But Polanco is done.  It would be best for the Phillies to play Ty Wiggington at third base and alternate John Mayberry, Laynce Nix and Jim Thome at first, with Mayberry/Nix alternating with Pierre in LF.

Placido is a good guy and put together a fine career with marginal talent.  You can’t argue with a .301 lifetime batting average in over 7,000 plate-appearances.  But for the betterment of the 2012 season, the Phils need more pop and less “pitchers” in the lineup.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Analysis of Freddy Galvis’ Opening Day

Since I am just one man, there can’t be a “Siskel and Ebert” review of Freddy Galvis’ debut yesterday, but some analysis is in order nonetheless. 

Galvis, without a doubt, is ready to play defense at the major league level. The double-play pivot he turned with Jimmy Rollins in the first inning was a thing of beauty as he rifled the relay to first. Galvis has always played shortstop, which is a much more difficult position than second base, except when it comes to the double-play pivot.

Having a cannon like Galvis can make up for a lot of footwork mechanics or troubles around the bag. He definitely has that.

Phillies fans can probably recall former Blue Jays second basemen Robbie Alomar’s range during the 1993 World Series. The guy was all over the place and that’s one of the reasons he is in Cooperstown now. Galvis has plenty of that as well and it will continue to get better as he learns to read the ball off the bat from the right side of the diamond compared to the left side.

If the Phillies were rolling out a lineup comparable to the 2008 team, or the 1993 bunch, or as far back as the 1977 squad, I’d say to Charlie Manuel: “Just pencil Galvis in at 2-bag every day, hit him eighth and let the rest of the bats take care of the run producing.”

Unfortunately, this is the Phillies of 2012. This bunch lacks the thump those other teams possessed, meaning they will need offense any place they can get it. And typically, those well-hitting teams make everyone else in the lineup better hitters.

Let’s go back to 1977. The Phillies had light-hitting Ted Sizemore at second base that season—”light hitting” might be a compliment. Sizemore had 5,648 plate appearances in his career and hit just 23 home runs. However, in ’77 the Phils lineup was stacked and Sizemore, who typically hit eighth, benefited from that and hit .281 that season.

The Phils just needed Sizemore to play solid defense, which is what he did, but he was able to reap the benefits of a powerhouse lineup, too.

Galvis won’t be able to benefit from that and basically needs to be sent back down to Triple-A as soon as Chase Utley is able to play. Galvis is a career .246 hitter in the minor leagues and only had 126 plate appearances above Double-A.

The bottom line: He is not ready to do much offensively at the major league level.

Don’t read too much into the spring training numbers, as he got plenty of at-bats in March against Double- and Triple-A pitching. The Pirates were able to go right after Galvis yesterday and he hit into a couple of double plays, struck out and grounded out another time.

But the Phillies won the game…and that’s good.

I think Galvis is a terrific prospect for the Phillies and their future, but I would hate to see him get screwed up mentally by a rough “fire drill” type of promotion to start the season as the every-day second baseman, only to see him never recover.

Again, if the Phillies had plenty of bats around him, sure, keep him here to where his bat isn’t needed as much. But right now, it’s “all hands on deck” for the Phillies bats and Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee/Cole Hamels/Vance Worley/Joe Blanton can’t be expected to toss shutouts every game. Especially against the likes of Erik Bedard.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Top 10 Opening Days of the Last 40 Seasons

The Philadelphia Phillies have not been a very good team on opening day in recent history.  Since 1972, the Phillies are 13-27 to start the season.  That’s an awful .325 winning percentage that would equate to a full season record of 53-109.

Hall of Famer Steve Carlton was just as bad on opening day.  In his 14 opening day starts, Lefty went 3-9 and the Phils were 4-10 in those games.  He was defeated by a couple other Hall of Famers like Fergie Jenkins and Tom Seaver while also being out dueled by future Phillie Cy Young Award winner John Denny.

Mike Schmidt hit four opening day dingers during that span.

During the last 40 years, the Phillies have opened up the season vs the Mets and Braves the most, at seven times each. Tomorrow will be the fourth time since 1972 the Phillies will open up with the Pirates. 

The following list is the top 10 opening days for the Phillies over the last 40 years.

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2012 Philadelphia Phillies: Predictions for Each April Series

Let’s have some fun, shall we?  The Phillies have seven series in April to start the season, for a total of 23 games.  Here is how the Phils started the last four seasons in their first 23:

2008- 12-11

2009- 13-10

2010- 13-10

2011- 15-8

They’ll open for three on the road, come home for six games, then head out west for a difficult 10-game road trip. Then they’re home for four more to wrap up the month.  More than likely, the Phillies will be without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley for the entire month, so will they be able to match the 15-8 record from last season?

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2012 Philadelphia Phillies: Predicting the Pitching Stats

The Phillies quite possibly will live and die with their pitching staff in 2012.  It carried them quite a bit through the 2011 season.  Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are a year older but aren’t showing any signs of slowing down.  Cole Hamels should be in his prime. We’ll see if Vance Worley can follow up his stellar rookie campaign.  Will Joe Blanton be able to rebound from an injury-riddled 2011?  Are there any surprises or disappointments in the bullpen?  Well, let’s see.

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2012 Philadelphia Phillies: Keep Pierre, Demote Podsednik?

It’s been one of the more fascinating battles to watch down in Clearwater this spring.  Two veterans with similar “games” battling it out for a place on the 2012 roster.

Juan Pierre vs Scott Podsednik

Most fans probably think without looking at the numbers that Juan Pierre is the choice here.  But Podsednik is having the better spring. Pods, who just turned 36, is hitting .362 and just hit a game- winning home run on Tuesday. He’s also stolen five bags without being caught.  Pierre, who is 34, is hitting .289 and in those same five stolen base attempts as Podsednik…has been caught three times.

Pierre was always a Phillies killer. His pesky at-bats while a member of the Florida Marlins from 2003-2005 and then with the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2007-2009 were memorable. He’s been extremely durable playing in every single game from 2003-2007 and just missing six games combined the last two season in Chicago playing for the White Sox.

Pierre is showing signs of wearing down though.  Last season, Pierre only stole 27 bases in 44 attempts.  That’s a terrible 61 percent success rate.  Pierre has never been a “Jimmy Rollins” type of having a high success rate when it comes to stolen bases. Seven times he led the league in being caught stealing but he was stealing 45-65 bags during those seasons so it was okay.  Last season wasn’t the case.

The basic knock on Podsednik is that he didn’t play in the Major Leagues last season. He hasn’t been very durable either. Since playing in 154 games in 2004, Podsednik has played in 129(05), 139(06), 62(07), 93(08), 132(09), 134(10), 0(11) big league games.  2010 was a pretty good season when he split time between the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Dodgers.  In 539 at-bats that season, Pods hit .297 with 35 stolen bases while being caught 15 times. That’s a 70 percent success ratio which is better than Pierre’s but still lacking.

Also, Podsednik has seen the majority of his success in the American League.  In 576 career AL games, Podsednik has a .284 average.  In the NL, Pods has played in 440 games and carries a .272 average. It’s the opposite for Pierre who has a lifetime .301 average in the NL and a .277 average in the AL.

The key here might be contract driven.  Pierre must be on the Major League roster Friday or be granted his release.  Podsednik doesn’t have that option and the Phillies can start him off in AAA as insurance to an injury.

At this point, there is no doubt Podsednik has outperformed Pierre this spring, but the Phillies are an aging group and injuries will happen.  By placing Pierre on the Major League roster May 30th, not only do they get to keep him, they can stash Podsednik in AAA in case of an injury. Everyone knows the Phillies are a veteran team and what happens to aging teams?  They experience injuries.

There is a chance in the not so distant future that Phillies manager Charlie Manuel pencils in a lineup that features both Pierre and Podsednik.  However, for the betterment of the organization, the right call at this time is to keep Pierre and demote Podsednik…even with Podsednik out playing Pierre this spring.

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