Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels: A 2012 Tale of Two Pitchers

Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. On paper, they are two of the best left-handed starters in the National League, perhaps in all of baseball. Cole and Cliff. In this tale of two pitchers, for one, it is almost the best of times; for the other, yes, it is the worst of times.

The first guy is having a season that puts him somewhere within the Cy Young Award discussion. The other “C”? Well, let’s just say that he’s having a season for the ages—for all of the wrong reasons.

Cole and Cliff. The younger lefty is now 14-6 with a 2.94 ERA. Cliff? 2-7, 3.83. It would be a stretch to say that Lee has pitched as well as Cole this year, and I am not making that argument. On the other hand, their performances have not been all that dissimilar, except for those two little columns labeled “wins” and “losses.”  And in keeping with that, the following statement has to be one of the strangest statistical oddities of the 2012 Major League Baseball season. Tonight, Cliff Lee will toe the rubber versus the Cincinnati Reds in search of his first home win, and third overall win, of the season. Yes, Virginia, it is August 22, not April 15. (Talk about a taxing season for Mr. Lee).

Not only is this, arguably, the weirdest stat in all of baseball this year, but it is also one of the craziest things I’ve witnessed in many years of following this wonderful, confounding sport. My main conclusion to all of this is that while Lee has not pitched as well he had in the previous four seasons (His overall numbers from 2008-2011 merited him Top 5 consideration among all MLB pitchers during that span), he has been victimized by some of the worst displays of offense, defense, relief pitching and managing imaginable.

Truly, it’s been almost unimaginable—especially for a team that came into the season as five-time-defending NL East Champs. Yes, this is the same team (more or less) whose pitching led them to an MLB-best  and franchise record 102 wins, despite losing eight straight games during what became garbage time.

Just last year, the Phillies celebrated “Big Three” (It was a Big Four of “R2, C2”, but Roy Oswalt suffered through various injuries) lived up to its hype, all finishing in the top three in NL Cy Young balloting. In a case where the voters seemed to get it just right: Roy (Doc) Halladay finished second behind the LA Dodgers‘ Clayton Kershaw. Lee was third, followed by Arizona’s Ian Kennedy and then Hamels.

This year? The race seems to wide open, with Kershaw and Hamels in consideration with the Reds’ Johnny Cueto, the New York Mets‘ R.A. Dickey, and seemingly, most of the pitchers from the San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals. If you were wondering about Ian Kennedy, the man who arrived last year as an ace, going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, his ERA has ballooned to a mediocre 4.24 this year, almost a half-point worse than Lee’s. His record? A disappointing, but respectable 11-10.

Lee’s rather comically unfair 2-7 record even stands out among Philles hurlers this year. The team’s main six starters numbers in 2012—using only very basic stats—look like this. For Joe Blanton, since traded to LA, I’ve used only his Philly numbers. WHIP, for those not familiar, is walks plus hits per innings pitched.

Pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K/BB
Joe Blanton	8-9	4.59	1.19	115/18
Roy Halladay	7-7	3.95	1.08	95/19
Cole Hamels	2-7	3.83	1.16	168/42
Kyle Kendrick	6-9	4.20	1.37	81/39
Cliff Lee	2-7	3.83	1.16	142/24
Vance Worley	6-8	4.11	1.48	100/45

Clearly, these numbers tell the story of a pitcher who has had terrible support during the year, and if you’ve watched all or most of the games, they barely do justice to the…well…injustice of it all. The above just shows it from a team perspective, but how about from a league perspective. The below charts show Lee’s record compared to the pitchers with the most similar earned run averages.

Pitcher	ERA	W-L
Josh Johnson (Marlins)	3.73	7-10
Trevor Cahill (Diamondbacks)	3.75	9-10
Lucas Harrell (Astros)	3.81	10-8
Lee	3.83	2-7
Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)	3.87	11-10
Bronson Arroyo (Reds)	3.96	9-7
Wandy Rodriguez (mostly with Astros)	4.00	8-12

The chart shows about a .500 record for all of the other pitchers with similar ERAs, with two of them managing respectable records despite toiling for a horrible Astros team. Do you need more ammo to show how poorly Lee has been supported during his nightmare 2012 season? Cliff is superior to all of these hurlers in: WHIP, K/BB and innings per start.

The next chart shows Lee’s record with among those with similar WHIP numbers.

Pitcher	WHIP	W-L
Wade Miley (Diamondbacks)	1.13	13-8
Jonathan Niese (Mets)	1.15	10-6
Gio Gonzalez (Nats)	1.16	16-6
Lee	1.16	2-7
Edwin Jackson (Nats)	1.17	7-8
Paul Maholm (mostly with Cubs)	1.17	11-7
Clayton Richards (Padres)	4.00	8-12

 Per this group, for pitchers not named Cliff Lee, the average record is 11-8. And yes, per this gang of pretty good WHIP-ers, Lee is the best in terms of K/BB ratio and innings pitched per start.

All of these stats and normal baseball logic would suggest that Lee has easily pitched well enough to be about 10-8 in his 21 starts this year, if he had even average support. With good support, perhaps 12-6. No, this is not Cy Young or even Clayton Kershaw territory, but he has hardly stunk the joint out this year. Far from it.

So, how does Hamels play into all this. None of this to detract from Hamels, who has been about the only bright sport for Phillies fans this year. Yes, Chooch Ruiz (until he got injured) and Freddy Galvis’ poise and amazing defense at second base (now, ancient history due to his back and injury and 50-game suspension) were about all the faithful had, and even those turned sour. In Hamels’ present groove, he could even make a run at 20 wins.

And so, the narrative tends to be set, even during the post-game analysis by the local (Comcast Sportsnet) post game crews over the weekend. In what typifies the trajectories of the two southpaw’s seasons the reactions to their most recent starts in Milwaukee was interesting. Hamels was praised for having all his pitches working in a 4-3 win; Lee was questioned for continuing to “pound the strike zone” during what turned out to be a 7-4 loss.He received his 14th “no-decision” in 21 starts. Bullpen help, anyone?

Two things come to mind here:

1. There was an element in truth to the reactions to both pitchers’ performances

2. Lee pitched as well as Hamels. No, check that, he pitched the stronger game.

Here were their stats in Milwaukee, which were strikingly similar, with an edge to Lee.

 

Pitcher	IP	H	R/ER	K/BB	Net Pitches/Strikes
Hamels	7.2	8	3/3	10/1	107/75
Lee	7.2	5	4/3	12/0	111-82

 

The craziness of this game is that both pitchers gave up a homer to Aramis Ramirez and another one to Ryan Braun. Check that, Lee gave up two to Braun; Hamels gave up a second tracer to the red-hot leftfielder that somehow did not clear the wall in left-center, just (apparently) not hitting the yellow line at the top. As fortune would have it, Cole was bailed out by a downright moronic, two-out baserunning gaffe by Jonathan Lucroy on the play. First, he fell asleep; then he went back to second thinking that he missed it. He could have scored easily on the play, and the speedy Braun would have/should have an easy double and possibly more.

Of course, Hamels was also bailed out by closer Jonathan Papelbon who came into the bottom of the eight (after a two-out, two-run homer by Braun) for a rare four-out save. In Lee’s start, he was cruising in the eighth and threw what should have been a 1-2-3 eighth but for a throwing error by third baseman Kevin Frandsen on a fairly routine play. From there, Lee was pulled and all the usual heck broke loose.

The deep frustration for Phillies fans is that watching Cliff Lee this year has suddenly become a horror show for Phillies fans. Like Hamels, Lee is one very few pitchers who average 7 innings per start, and his numbers, as illustrated, have been those of a reliably good pitcher. It’s just that this reliably good pitcher who has always pitched, fielded and run the bases with style, poise, maximum effort and class, has only two wins in 21 starts.

And, so it goes for the still-popular, incredibly unflappable lefty co-ace. The worst of times, indeed, with the hope and expectation that this is a one-year anomaly. It is, right?

 

 

 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Examining Cliff Lee’s Strange Winless Streak

I suppose that there are worst fates in life than the current one that is facing Phillies‘ co-ace Cliff Lee.

A little perspective will reveal that the man seems to have his health, a great family, and those proverbial 21.5 million, and escalating, reasons to be happy. And yes, he seems to be a happy guy who can probably get along on a whole lot less. Add to all this the fact that he is playing where he wants to and where he is adored by his fans, and life is okay.

Did I mention that he seems to always be one of the focal points of his sport come the postseason? That is true of his last few years, and he is playing for a team that could give him more shots at a ring. Well, they could; just a little more on that in a bit.

Putting all of those rather nice considerations aside, one then considers the following. After two months of the 2012 season, one of baseball’s greatest and most competitive hurlers has no wins. Zero. Zip. Nada. And it’s not as if Lee has pitched poorly. No, that’s hardly the case.

So, if we can muster some baseball sympathy for a multi-millionaire who seems to have it all (but a single win in 2012, that is), perhaps, we can do so for Cliff. Well, can’t we?

It must be killing him to have a 3.00 ERA, excellent peripheral numbers and be saddled with an 0-2 record as the calendar flips to June. One usually can’t tell by his calm, team-oriented demeanor, but that has to be the case, right?

Here is a factoid for you and Mr. Lee to ponder. Ten, yes, 10, other Phillies pitchers have at least one win this year.

Jake Diekman (with his somewhat misleading 5.68 ERA) is 1-0. Chad Qualls (who has looked as poor as his 4.68 ERA indicates) has found his way to a 1-1 record. Even Raul Valdes, bless his heart, is 2-0. Cliff Lee? No wins and two losses after eight starts.

By the numbers, Lee has averaged more than seven innings per start (58 innings in eight starts), which is the highest of anyone on the staff, including Cole Hamels, who is enjoying an 8-1 season. He has gone at least six innings in all eight, and six of the outings have been quality starts—three or fewer earned runs in six or more innings. Of course, if there was any baseball justice, he should have been credited with multiple quality starts for the masterpiece he threw in San Francisco on April 18. Ten (yes, 10) innings of seven-hit, no walk, shutout ball earned him a no-decision in a game that the Phillies lost 1-0 in the bottom of the 11th.

Cliff Lee’s WHIP (1.02) is eighth best in the National League, and just a hair higher than Hamels and another pretty fair lefty, reigning Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw. In fact, the combined win-loss record of the pitchers with a better (most only marginally so) WHIP is 40-13, or an average of roughly 6-2.

If ERA is your thing, of all the18 pitchers in the NL with an ERA of 3.00 or lower, only two others (the similarly jinxed Ryan Dempster of the Cubs at 0-3 and the Nats’ Jordan Zimmerman, who somehow is stuck with a 3-5 record) have a losing record.

Do you like strikeout-to-walk ratios? Despite missing three starts, Lee is ranked 26th in the league with 54 Ks, achieved in only 57 innings. He has issued fewer free passes than any of the others, and his 5.4 K/BB ratio is the best in the NL, just ahead of Hamels and the Giants‘ Matt Cain.

Another puzzling thing about Cliff’s winless streak is that Lee does about as much to help himself—he fields, hits (batting .333), runs the bases and works quickly—as any pitcher in the game.

There must be a reason that the Phils have looked like the 1962 Mets when he has been the pitcher of record and the 1927 Yankees once he is removed. Wednesday night’s box score will reflect that the Phillies beat the Mets 10-6, and of course, they did. Some sites will even show that the Phils scored 10 runs for Lee. Of course, nine of those runs came after Lee’s six innings of work.

The good news in all this is that these things should even out over the 162-game campaign. One would think so, anyway.

Ironically, Lee’s numbers are almost identical to Hamels’ in many categories this year; Cole, though is 8-1 to Cliff’s 0-2. Hamels should be able to relate to Lee’s current misery; he suffered through an eight-start winless streak in 2010. As I observed back then, Hamels also threw the heck out of the ball during that skid.

Phillies fans and fans of what I call baseball justice must be hoping that Lee’s streak will end at only eight starts.

…

ONE MORE THING: 

Despite zero wins from Lee, a strangely ineffective (although now we understand why)  Roy Halladay in May, an injury to Vance Worley and the reappearance of the bad Joe Blanton—and I didn’t even mention the absence of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard—the Phillies are only three games out of first place with more than two-thirds of the season to be contested. As the five-time defending NL East champions, that may offer a glimpse of optimism.

 

Matt Goldberg, a Featured Columnist for the Phillies the last two seasons, writes frequently for Bleacher Report as well as for philly2philly.com and jewocity.com.  Please check his site, tipofthegoldberg.com and new fan page for more info.

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Philly’s Horrible Sports Week: Is It Ever Totally Sunny in Philadelphia?

As I write, it’s only Thursday morning, but what did I and numerous other Philadelphia sports fans do to deserve such a hellish week? Please don’t reply; this was designed to be a rhetorical lead. Yes, it’s not lost on me that some of you may invoke the vision of a snow-bombarded Santa Claus…from 1968.

But, I digress. Philly has had some superb players and almost superb teams over the years and once in a rainbow-colored moon, we get to attend parades (1983…2008), but the most passionate sports city in America knows quite well what it’s like to get kicked in the ribs, and lower. Still, experiencing numerous cruel kicks hardly prepared Philly Nation for Black Tuesday—a day in which our hockey team got eliminated, our basketball team couldn’t win an elimination game against a shell of an opponent and our baseball team, to be kind, channeled the worst of the ’62 Mets…without the “lovable” factor.

To fully appreciate Black Tuesday, one must recall the feeling that was in the air just 38 or so hours ago. At 7 p.m., the Phillies were hosting the Mets, who had improbably (well, not all that improbably this season) gotten two runs with two outs in the top of the sixth off ace Roy Halladay to tie the score at two, and then had someone named Jordany Valdespin (for his first career MLB hit) golf a three-run homer off new closer Jonathan Papelbon to take a 5-2 win and snap our one-game winning streak.

More on that winning streak in just a bit. But, there was no doubt that the Phils would get revenge behind Big Joe Blanton, who was coming off the game of his life: a Greg Maddux-like, 88-pitch, three-hit shutout in Atlanta.

In truth, the Phillies game was only a nice appetizer for the Philadelphia Flyers’ 7:30 home game versus the New Jersey Devils. Was it just yesterday—or about three years ago—that the Flyers were the story of the NHL after eliminating their bitter cross-state rival Pittsburgh Penguins in six exhilarating games. These were games that featured all the hitting and scoring, and more, that one could ever hope for.

Not so incidentally, the series had earned center Claude Giroux a prominent place in the discussion of “greatest player in the world.” His first shift of Game 6, which featured an epic open-ice hit that flattened Sidney Crosby followed by a goal-scorer’s goal to stake the orange and black to a 1-0 lead (the only 1-0 lead that they didn’t relinquish in the playoffs), was the stuff of legends.

It should be mentioned that the Flyers were down three game to one against the Devils, but no worries: This was the night when the Bullies would snap out of their post-Penguins funk, start taking the body, tilt the ice and have their riddle of an enigma of a goalie stand on his head. Eh?

At 9:30, the Sixers were about to finish off the Chicago Bulls in the Windy City. To be fair, the Bulls were a depleted, dispirited unit playing without their two best players: 2011 MVP Derrick Rose and that all hyper defense and offensive rebounding machine named Joakim Noah. Still, whether by merit or luck, a franchise that had been mostly irrelevant for a decade was on the verge of winning a playoff series for the first time since 2003.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the suspensions and controversies that had engulfed these parts on Monday. Perhaps, the least of the controversies was the continued fallout over the alleged classlessness of Sixers fans who had appeared to cheer Noah’s injury (twisted left ankle) in the third quarter of last Friday’s Game 3 victory.

Were some fans cheering his injury…for about 10 seconds or so? It sounded like it, and it did not help matters that some (the same?) idiots also booed the energetic, pony-tailed forward as he picked himself off the court. There was finally a story line of sorts to this series that has been devoid of star power or shooting accuracy.

The Flyers had a bigger controversy on their hands. The aforementioned Giroux, a man who had done and said all the right things all season, had gotten penalized in Game 4 for what appeared to be a blow to the head of former Flyer Dainius Zubrus. Yes, Zubie left South Philly 13 years ago, and new NHL Enforcement Czar Brendan Shanahan decreed on Monday that Giroux would not be on the South Philly ice for Game 5. The script was set: The Flyers were going to take it up a couple notches to win a game for their best player, who in turn, would be back for Game 6 with a vengeance.

These incidents barely caused a ripple in the pond of controversy compared to the Sunday-into-Monday whirlpool generated by the Phillies’ 9-3 victory over the host Washington Nationals. Starting pitcher Cole Hamels was in top form, yielding only five hits and one run while fanning eight in his eight innings of work. But only one of Hamels’ 109 pitches was talked about afterward: the first-inning pitch that nailed 19-year-old rookie phenom Bryce Harper in the lower back.

To most observers, this was not a pitch that got away, and the most shocking aspect of it was that the ultra-candid Hamels not only admitted as much but went a step further, essentially saying that it was his “welcome to the league” offering to the mega-hyped Harper. Depending on your perspective, Hamels was either a hero for drilling the cocky kid and bragging about it (to supposedly show those Natitudinal upstarts that the Phillies are still the beasts of the NL East) or as Nats’ GM Mike Rizzo more or less put it, the lanky lefty was clueless, gutless, new school and…baseball’s version of Chris Bosh?

To stay on this incident for another moment or so, this columnist believes all of the following:

• Pitching inside is part of the game; intentionally hitting someone who had done nothing to provoke it was stupid, reckless and arrogant
• Hamels had more than shed his soft label (kind of deserved after his 2009 World Series) prior to this over the last two-plus seasons
• I hope that the Phillies are able to lock up Hamels long term..debatable?
• This diehard Phils fans loved that the Phillies won Sunday night (which is now their only win in their last six), but also thought it was great that Harper, immediately after getting hit, went from first to third and then stole home! Without hitting a single jack in his first 10 games, he has impressed many with his seeming maturity (after a pre-MLB rep as a showboat), to say nothing of his glove, arm and baserunning.
• Candor from players is admirable. Being candid about doing something stupid does not trump stupidity.
• Speaking of which, who exactly is Mike Rizzo to go all Tony Soprano afterward?

 

The Phillies opened Tuesday evening’s action with a Hunter Pence two-run bomb in the first followed by two more in the second for a 4-0 lead. With the new, Slim Joe Blanton on the hill, this win was in the books, giving plenty of time to concentrate on the Flyers who…

…got a jolt of energy from center Zac Rinaldo who, seeing his first action of the series, plastered defenseman Anton Volchenko into the boards with a clean hit that even Shanahan (the suit) would have loved. Rinaldo, known more for his fisticuffs and dumb penalties more than anything else, had welcomed Volchenko to South Philly and before you knew it, Max Talbot put the first biscuit in the basket for the orange and black.

Given the Flyers’ predilection for come-from-ahead losses, one did not know whether to cheer or boo the 1-0 lead. As fate would have it, there was only about two minutes of ice time to ponder this dilemma, the rumination broken by a long deflection off the stick of Devils’ defenseman Bryce Salvador, who scored as many goals as I did in the regular season.

Had enigmatic Flyers goalie Ilya Bryzgalov given up a soft goal here? If so, it was nothing compared to what occurred three minutes later: one of the softest, strangest, most puzzling and aggravating goals ever scored against the Flyers. Aptly described by Philadelphia Daily News hockey writer Frank Seravelli as a Bryzaster, I will utilize his description of this atrocity:

 

KIMMO TIMONEN twirled and dished the puck back, deeper into the Flyers’ zone to try and shake a pressuring attacker.

The puck landed on Ilya Bryzgalov’s tape and by the time he could look up, David Clarkson was bearing down hot and heavy. With panic in his eyes, Bryzgalov tried to saucer the puck out of harm’s way.

It was a Bryzaster.

Ultimately, Clarkson’s series-clinching gift – after Bryzgalov’s pass deflected off his outstretched stick and into the net – will be the forgettable, lasting image of the end of the Flyers’ spring dreams.

 

 

Yes, a full 47 minutes and 15 seconds still remained in the game, but Bryzgalov’s own goal (yes, Clarkson got credit) sapped all life from what is usually one of the loudest buildings in the NHL. The Flyers barely made an average-looking Marty Brodeur sweat the rest of the way, and the Devils went on to win 3-1, sending the Flyers to the golf courses instead of North Jersey with momentum and a revved-up Giroux for a Game 6.

But at least the Phillies had that 4-0 lead. The offense seemed to be back at Citizens Bank Park and the crowd even enjoyed a rare sighting of little-used second baseman Pete Orr driving in underachieving (in 2012) John Mayberry, Jr. The Mets got one back in the fourth, and as it turned out, the Phillies, even with the likes of Mayberry and Orr on their side, scored as much as the post-Bryzaster Flyers did the rest of the way. They were done, and left it to slimmed-down Joe, their bullpen and their defense to hold the 4-1 lead. How did that work out…

The top of the seventh inning started well enough, with Blanton retiring two of the first three hitters before spit hit the fans once again. Please just suffice it to say that the Mets scored four runs with two outs to take the lead, aided and abetted by a botched rundown play by Orr. This boneheaded act almost managed to make the Bryzgalov blunder look like a heads-up play. The Phils’ bats never recovered from the turnaround and the Mets would extend the lead to 7-4.

 

It didn’t help the mood of savvy Phillies fans to note that while the Phillies were losing and getting very little pop from left field, Raul Ibanez launched two homers for the Yankees. The Nationals were also losing in Pittsburgh because of a walk-off homer by former Phil (hardly a favorite here) Rod Barajas.

Well, two games were lost, but Philly still had the rest of a basketball game to watch, one in which the young Sixers would be able to win their first playoff series since…well…a long time ago. And who cares that we were doing it with the Bulls’ two best players out of the lineup? (Note: would you rather have Boozer or Deng than Noah? Not me.)

To cut to the chase, what do you say about a game (a 79-74 loss) in which the winning team shot .415 from the floor and made 4-of-11 from the charity stripe? They were hot compared to Philly’s 25-of-78 from the floor (an incomprehensible .321 field-goal percentage), including 2-of-11 from behind the arc. Yes, team leader and first-time All-Star Andre Iguodala showed the way by shooting 4-of-19, and 1-of-6 from from three-point land. I know he’s playing hurt, but did he also share a pre-game strategy discussion  with Ilya Bryzgalov and Pete Orr?

Black Tuesday had ended with one team eliminated, another with two more chances to throw a few in the ocean (Bulls come to Philly tonight for Game 6) and a third that still had another chance at redemption the next night against the rival Mets.

The good news in all this? Cliff Lee, the people’s choice, would be pitching for the first time since he toed the rubber in San Francisco on April 18—a gem in which he threw 10 innings of shutout ball in a game that his team would end up losing 1-0 in 13 innings.

If you don’t recall this oddity, it’s been an extreme example of this early season in a microcosm. Lee, once again, pitched well enough to win last night (two runs on five hits, while striking out six in six innings) and even drove in the first run of the ballgame, but watched in horror as the bullpen yielded eight runs in the final three innings. Lee’s record is 0-1 despite a 2.17 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and a .375 batting average.

 

Weeks like this test one’s resolve as a sports fans and even as writers. But this is Philly: We don’t always win, but we always go all in and we’ll be back imploring our teams to earn us another championship parade, even if these seem to come along with the frequency of Halley’s Comet sightings.

Yes, we’ll bounce back, even if our ex-favorite right fielder now hates our guts enough to threaten to return early from an injury to deny us a shot at another parade. Or something like that. Do I have to explain, or just wait until he steps in the box again versus Killer Cole Hamels?

As always, thank you for reading. Please check out my site, tipofthegoldberg.com and new fan page for more info.

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MLB Free Agents 2012: Philadelphia Philles Sign Veteran Pitcher Dontrelle Willis

Those of a certain vintage or with access to television reruns may remember the catchphrase, “What’chu talkin’ ’bout, Willis?”

That line, spoken by Arnold (the late Gary Coleman) to his brother Willis (Todd Bridges), became the main reason to tune into a sitcom called Diff’rent Strokes, which ran from 1978 through 1986. Oh yeah, they liked their apostrophes on that show.

This brings us to the news that the Philadelphia Phillies came to terms Tuesday on a one-year deal with veteran left-handed pitcher Dontrelle Willis. Per a piece by Bob Gelb on Philly.com, his base salary will be less than $1 million, assuming he passes his physical.

So, what are we talkin’ ’bout?

At a time when the Phillies and veteran free-agent shortstop Jimmy Rollins have not been able to get together on a new contract, the club signed the former Rookie of the Year and NL Cy Young runner-up to what looks like very favorable terms.

So, is this a deal or a steal? At one time, it would have been grand larceny.

Willis exploded on the baseball landscape in 2003 as a tall, gangly, 21-year-old southpaw hurler for the Marlins. Placed in the starting rotation that May, he went 14-6 with a 3.30 ERA.

He made the All-Star team, won Rookie of the Year, and he was all the rage for his sheer energy and confounding, all-elbows-and-knees delivery. And yes, he pitched quite effectively, ripped the ball at the plate and was a terrific clubhouse presence.

After a bit of a sophomore slump, Willis rebounded brilliantly in 2005 (22-6, 2.63) and came close to wresting the Cy Young Award from the Cardinals‘ Chris Carpenter.

Through his first three seasons, the D-Train was a cumulative 46-27 with an earned run average around 3.30 and a respectable, if not stellar, WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) that averaged around 1.28.

 

The last six years have seen his once-promising career be derailed, if not wrecked. Willis’ won-loss record has been a miserable 26-42, and his inside numbers have shown that he has not out-pitched that mark. His ERA has been high, and his control has been, well, abominable.

So, what role do the Phillies envision for Dontrelle, who won’t turn 30 until next January? He is expected to pitch out of the bullpen, mostly as a lefty-to-lefty specialist.

On paper, given the fact that 202 of Willis’ 205 MLB appearances have been as a starter, the move looks a little suspect. Not as illogical as, say, turning a longtime offensive line coach into a defensive coordinator (ahem, sorry Andy Reid), but a little risky just the same.

But, how big of a risk is it? In this day and age, this contract is pocket change, and Willis has always been regarded as one of baseball’s good guys. Plus, as illustrated, he was a terrific pitcher at one time.

If Ryan Madson departs as expected, and Antonio Bastardo settles into the eighth-inning role, Willis could be quite effective in the type of duty that J.C. Romero once excelled in for the club, especially in that championship year of 2008.

Willis has some numbers that can be cause for optimism, if not wild celebration.

Bob Gelb cited these stats in his aforementioned piece on Philly.com:

His career numbers against lefties are outstanding, holding them to a career .200 average and .562 OPS against. In 2011, those numbers were even better, as lefties hit .127 with a .369 OPS against. Control is what always held Willis back, but in the small sample size of 60 plate appearances against lefties in 2011, he struck out 20 with only two walks.

 

Is this a questionable deal or a steal? That remains to be seen, but the risk-reward appears to be in the Phillies’ favor.

And now, the hot stove league will soon reveal whether Willis’ old Bay Area buddy, Jimmy Rollins, will stay in Philly and be his teammate.

It is certainly somethin’ to talk ’bout.

 

As always, thank you for reading. Please check out my site tipofthegoldberg.com, and new fan page for more info.

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The Deserving Dozen: Ranking Philly’s Top 12 Pro Athletes

So, who would you choose as Philadelphia‘s Top 12 pro athletes? Who is your No. 1?

Indeed, how does one choose the best of the best who represent this sports-crazed town on our fields, rinks and courts? It is not an exact science, but I mostly considered the following three factors:

1) Current performance level

2) Overall contribution here

3) Popularity and/or buzz generated

After mulling it over, I decided on what I will call The Deserving Dozen—12 athletes who combine enough of the above criteria to compete for the title as Philly’s best.

In so doing, I was careful to have at least one representative of each of the four teams. Philadelphia Union fans, please accept my apologies.

As this is not an exact science, I have not shown the “scores” I tabulated for each.

So, feel free to similarly agree or disagree at its conclusion, even if you don’t show your work.

Let us begin.

One note: The pitcher (pictured) above made the list, but how high does Cliff Lee rank?

Begin Slideshow

MLB Awards: Should Phillies’ Roy Halladay Win Another Cy Young?

The Phillies’ ace of aces Roy Halladay has a chance to win his second NL Cy Young Award in as many years tomorrow. Will he—or technically, will the Baseball Writers Association of America—give Phillies Nation a reason to cheer?

In case you have been spending time in an alternate universe since the end of September, many Phillies fans are still in mourning over their 102-win juggernaut’s rude dispatch by the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS.

Yes, there have been glimmers of good news in the offseason. Jim Thome is back in red pinstripes and just seeing this class act back in town feels good. General Manager Ruben Amaro chose to pursue Jonathan Papelbon rather than his own closer, Ryan Madson, and that acquisition figures to be a valuable one.

But those two player additions aside, it’s been tough around here, and if you factor in the Eagles’ hideous 3-6 start along with the NBA lockout, it’s been a cruel stretch for Philly sports fans. And I say that without even mentioning the horrific situation in State College, PA. Oops.

Back to the task at hand: Roy Halladay and the NL Cy Young Award.

Halladay has been nothing short of brilliant in his two years in South Philly, and has a good chance to win back-to-back awards. If he does so, Doc will become only the ninth pitcher in Major League Baseball history to win three or more Cy Young Awards. All of the other eight are, or will be, Hall of Famers. And Doc’s plaque will also hang in Cooperstown one day— whether or not he ever wins another Cy Young Award.

So will he win?  He may, but this column is not written to make a prediction.

Does he deserve to win?  It says here that a decent case can be made for Halladay; it also says here that a much stronger case can be made for Clayton Kershaw, the young ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Saying this takes nothing away from Doc’s brilliance or the splendid work of co-aces Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, who also merit consideration. Lee would rank third on my mythical ballot (just in front of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Ian Kennedy) and Hamels would probably hang in at No. 5.

Picking a deserving winner is as much art as science. And while controversial or even heretical to some, I do tend to put more emphasis on “real stats” than some of the newer stats such as  ERA-plus, FIP, X-FIP and Gladys Knight and the Pips. Having taken shots against the IPs, I do like WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched).

And yes, I also remain more of an opponent than an advocate of WAR and don’t possess a ton of patience for things like BABIP and fly ball ratio when it comes to awards. Why? I’m not a scout or a GM and believe that awards should reward actual performance.

Below are (some of) the stats compiled by my top five candidates in 20111.

 

Pitcher	W/L	ERA	IP	H	K/BB	CG/SHO	BAA	WHIP
Kershaw	21-5	2.26	233.1	174	248/54	5/2	.207	0.98
Halladay	19-6	2.35	233.2	208	220/35	8/1	.239	1.04
Lee	17-8	2.40	232.2	197	238/42	6/6	.229	1.03
Kennedy	21-4	2.88	222	186	198/55	1/1	.227	1.09
Hamels	14-9	2.79	216	169	194/44	3/0	.214	0.99

 

With apologies to Hamels, any of the top four would be worthy selections for the NL Cy Young Award this year. In most pundits’ minds, the choice comes down to Halladay and Kershaw.

Reviewing the numbers, it is hard to see why Halladay (who may well still be MLB’s mythical best starter) would get the nod over Kershaw this year.

Durability: Halladay once again topped his league in complete games, and had an eight to five advantage over Kershaw here. On the other hand, Kershaw had two shutouts to Doc’s one, and they pitched the same amount of innings, give or take one out. Call this a draw.

Control:  Doc had a ratio of 220/35 (6.29 k/bb) compared to Kershaw’s 248/54 (4.59 k/bb). If one is just looking at ratio, Doc runs away with it. But, if you look at it another way, Kershaw’s differential of strikeouts to walks was 194; Halladay’s was 185. Whose line would you take? Call this a wash.

WHIP and Batting Average Against: Kershaw rates a big edge over Halladay in BAA (.207 to .239). Doc’s better control mitigates this slightly, but Kershaw still gives up fewer hits and walks per innings pitched (0.98 to 1.04) than Doc.

Win/Loss and ERA: Again, this goes to Kershaw (21-5, 2.26 to Halladay’s 19-6, 2,35). And while neither stat is the be-all and end-all for pitchers, one would be a fool to discount either completely. To me, this is still the starting point for pitchers before examining other stats. (And yes, I supported Felix Hernandez for the AL CYA last year, despite his pedestrian 13-12 record),

Doc’s supporters—and trust me, I am a huge fan of the guy—may point to the fact that the Phillies were 24-8 in games that he started, and the Dodgers were 23-10 when Kershaw toed the rubber. Point well taken, but consider this.

When Halladay did not start, the Phillies still were 78-52 (.600). When Kershaw did not start, the Dodgers were 59-69 (.460).

Taking everything into consideration, as terrific as Doc was, Kershaw was clearly a notch above.

If Doc wins the award, it will be a chance for Phillies Nation to celebrate and once again salute a great pitcher who is the ultimate stand-up guy.

The Phillies fan in me will applaud the selection; the baseball fan in me will applaud even louder if Kershaw brings home the hardware.

As always, thank you for reading. Please check out my other books, blogs and speaking information…from (the) TipoftheGoldberg.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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World Series 2011 Analysis: What Can the Phillies Learn from Cards’ Triumph?

It would be interesting to know how many members of Phillies Nation watched the World Series (or even the Championship Series, for that matter).

As one of those members, I know that we can be a very provincial town, and not all of our denizens were ready to work through the grieving process by watching more baseball.

Of course, I am way too much of a MLB fan to kiss goodbye to the season just because my team was eliminated. For both of those reasons. I am still grieving about the Phillies’ sudden elimination and the end of the baseball season in general. I am also not sure what an October snowfall is doing to my already miserable mood.

So while I am not quite ready to think about all of the moves that should be made for 2012 and beyond, I am ready to put some thought into what lessons may have been learned by seeing the wrong red-clad team win it all.

 

THE BEST TEAM IN THE REGULAR SEASON DOESN’T ALWAYS WIN IT ALL

It is not sour grapes to point this out—it’s an easy statement to make, especially when we focus on the last 10 years.

From 2002-2011, the team with the best record in MLB only won the Fall Classic twice.

So, here’s to you, the 2009 New York Yankees and the 2007 Boston Red Sox (tied with the Cleveland Indians that year). Only one other team in this stretch even had the best record in its own league—Ozzie Guillen’s 2005 Chicago White Sox.

In the last 10 years, four wild card teams won it all: The 2002 Anaheim Angels, the 2003 Florida Marlins, the 2004 Red Sox and this year’s St. Louis Cardinals.

 

In 2006, the Cardinals won the whole ball of wax with a middling 83-78 record. That was after not hoisting the ultimate trophy in 2004 (a MLB-best 105-57) or 2005 (100-62, best in the sport once again).

As you may know, the Phillies won a MLB-best 102 games this year after leading the free baseball world with 97 in 2010. In neither case did they even return to the World Series, which they last won in 2008 with a 92-70 record, second best in the NL.

 

SO… TEAMS SHOULD TRY NOT TO HAVE THE BEST RECORDS, RIGHT?

Wrong! This ten-year trend aside, my only conclusion is that the best record in the regular season does not guarantee anything but home field advantage. Of course, home field advantage is not a guarantee of anything other than a home game to both start and conclude the series.

Clearly, it would not seem prudent for a team to kill themselves for home field advantage, but should they specifically play so as not to achieve it?  Of course not.

To be specific, there is no logical reason—baseball-wise or otherwise—that the 90-72 Cardinals should have had an advantage playing on the road versus the 102-60 Phillies.

The Phillies had clinched early, went through that disinterested eight-game losing streak and then snapped out of it by winning a getaway game versus the Mets prior to sweeping a free-falling Braves team in Atlanta.

AHA… WE SHOULD HAVE LOST TO ATLANTA

 

It was not only said in hindsight that the Phillies should consider blowing a game or two to the Braves to pave their way into the playoffs and keep the Cardinals out.

I rejected that notion then, and I still do. Why?

For one, if you can recall that amazing last day of the regular season, a lot of scenarios were still in play up till the very end. It resembled the last two weeks of the NFL schedule in that respect. If Atlanta got in, the Phils would not have played them in the NLDS: it would have been either the Diamondbacks or the Brewers.

Secondly, after going through the motions during that eight-game losing streak, the wins were a good sign, or certainly seemed to be.

Thirdly? Should the NL and World Series favorites really be scared of anyone? I don’t think so.

And it takes nothing away from the Cardinals to report this truth.

They were not that hot coming down the stretch, their bullpen had blown several games in the last week and they had to expend their ace, Chris Carpenter, in the season finale.

 

THE PHILLIES WERE CONSTRUCTED POORLY: Huh?

Does anyone really believe that?

Perhaps changes will and should be made this offseason, but the Phillies were set up quite well to win it all. The pitching rotation—especially the troika of Halladay, Lee and Hamels—really was “all that” and Oswalt had looked good in his previous two or three outings. They were also pitching in their proper order with close to their regular amount of rest.

 

The lineup had a lingering injury or two but nothing dramatic… and I don’t say that to minimize what befell slugger Ryan Howard.

As to the lineup’s construction, this lineup (with a huge assist from its rotation) was good enough to have amassed the most wins by a large margin. With the midseason acquisition of Hunter Pence, they were loaded and were thought to be close to a lock to win it all.

Much has been written about the team’s approach at the plate, and I don’t discount all of the analysis.

Of course, when you’re going bad, it will seem as if you’re constantly taking good pitches and swinging at junk. But once again, this very team won 102 games with this approach (and beat most of the good teams and pitchers they faced).

Perhaps a new batting culture should be implemented for the coming years, but I think this deficiency has been overblown.

Before moving on, it might help to take a look at Jimmy Rollins, who has never (other than his speed or penchant for stealing bases and scoring runs when he gets on base) been the prototypical leadoff hitter.

In the five-game NLDS, Jimmy went 9-20 with a slash line of .450/.476/.659 and six runs scored. Maybe it’s just me, but I’d be thrilled to have my leadoff batter score more than a run per game, and post an OPS of 1.126.

Oh yeah—he’s pretty good with the leather, too.

By contrast, shortstop and leadoff hitter Rafael Furcal added some much-needed stability to the Cardinals this year, He was also 4-18 with two runs scored versus the Phillies, and his OPS for the postseason was a putrid .569.

 

This is not to say that the Phillies should issue a blank check to Rollins this offseason. This is to say that Rollins more than did his job in the postseason.

 

SO, WHAT HAPPENED?

How do I say this with any measure of elegance? Spit happens, that’s what.

The Cardinals happened, and they were not your typical 90-72. Or maybe they were, judging by all the wild cards (lower case) who have won it all.

Game 2 happened, and the Phillies could not win a 4-0 game at home with Cliff Lee on the hill versus a thought-to-be-inept Cardinals bullpen.

This is not to blame Cliff Lee. I’d consider doing so if he walked the stadium, pitched with fear or showed anything but complete class afterward. A desperate Cards’ team—a team that obviously would go on to show its collective mettle—was able to handle a few pitches, and the Phillies’ offense went cold.

I would still take Lee in that situation every single time. Three recent losses in postseason games (after winning his first seven postseason contests with Koufax-like brilliance) would not keep me from gladly handing him the ball in a must-win game.

How about that rally squirrel… ah, give me a break.

Sometimes, you just tip your cap to a team that was just that iota better in the big moments.

 

 

WHY ISN’T THE DIVISION SERIES A BEST OF 7?

Even if it would not have changed the results (and we’ll never know, for sure), I would welcome a best-of-seven. You can always sign me up for more baseball, and presumably the longer format is more upset-proof.

Would the Phillies have beaten the Cardinals in a best-of-seven this year? They may have, but who really knows?

 

ONE MORE POST-MORTEM

I had heard at least one sports talk jock expressing the opinion that a team that had won more than 10 games more than its first-round opponent should get more than just one extra home game. Did you even follow that half-baked proposal?

Now, I am all for making regular seasons more meaningful, but I think MLB has it right when it comes to the postseason. I would extend the first round to best-of-seven (and see no compelling reason not to) but coming up with a formula to give a team four out of five, or five out of seven, home games does not seem fair. It also seems rather unwieldy.

And who is to say that if the Phillies would have won this series even if they had played four out of five at home. The Cards came in to South Philly and won two out of three, versus Lee, Halladay and an offense they were able to solve.

 

 

THERE’S ALWAYS 2012

Much as I can use a hot stove, I’m not ready to focus much energy on 2012 yet.

I do see no reason that the Phillies should not be in line for another playoff berth next year, and then we’ll see what happens from there.

As for the Cardinals, picturing them with a re-energized (and re-signed) Pujols, a healthy Adam Wainwright and emerging stars in David Freese and Allen Craig is kind of scary.

Then again, they could win 105 games next year and lose in the NLCS to a Philies team that only wins 89.

Stuff happens, whether one calls it karma, destiny, the laws of baseball—or “spit.”

 

As always, thank you for reading. Please check out my other books, blogs and speaking information…from (the) TipoftheGoldberg.com

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Phillies 2011: End of Season and Grief Counseling Advice

Good grief!

Yeah, what’s so good about it?

Hopefully, at least some of you recognize this rather quaint expression popularized by good ol’ Charlie Brown—that lovable loser from Charles Schulz’s Peanuts strip.

We all know Master Brown, who pitched for a baseball team that never won a game. They were the kiddie, amateur version of the Chicago Cubs, but much more lovable—and without any of the excessive payroll.

So, what does this have to do with the Philadelphia Phillies—“my” Phillies—who lost 1-0 to the St. Louis Cardinals last Friday night to be eliminated from the MLB playoffs?

a) Nothing

b) Anything

c) Everything

d) You decide

To dispense with some word play, the Phillies, baseball’s best team in the regular season with a record of 102-60, were not playing for peanuts.

They had the second-highest player payroll in MLB (at $173 million, behind the New York Yankees) and Phillies Nation (as rabid a fan base as exists) shelled out a lot of money for tickets, concessions, parking and merchandise this year.

 

 

Good grief!

So, do I really need to explain or analyze the grief experienced by Phillies fans who suffered through that cruel loss that ended our baseball season and our dream-goal of another world championship?

The team lost, and we fans experienced an almost palpable, tangible loss.

So, what did we lose? That all depends on what our perceived stake was, and that’s something that is very hard to define.

How about all of these—in no particular order:

1. Collective sense of self-esteem
2. Bragging rights
3. A psychic victory for our city, and for ourselves
4. Money (for those who bet)
5. Vindication of a sort
6. The chance to watch our team play more games
7. A true sense of loss for a group of players we’ve really come to…watch it now…love.
8. A chance to get drunk—on suds and/or life—at the championship parade.

In truth, it’s hard to do justice to everything we may have lost last Friday night. There’s an element of exaggeration to this essay, but there’s also one of understatement.

To be a sports fan is to experience both invigorating triumphs and dispiriting losses. It’s all about being elevated by breathtaking plays, surreal performances and laudable accomplishments, but also being deflated and humiliated by crushing plays and stinging defeats.

 

As a Philly sports fan, it’s sometimes about being slapped in the face and being kicked in the nuts at the same time. Hard to manage, and hard to endure, yet we manage to endure.

 

When it comes to the Phillies and the end of the baseball season, there is also an element of being left in the cold. Baseball ends right as the weather is turning colder.

Please consider this quote from A. Bartlett Giamatti, poet supreme and former commissioner of MLB:

“[Baseball] breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall all alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.”
― A. Bartlett Giamatti, Take Time for Paradise: Americans and Their Games

So, add to my list what he said, and you almost don’t have to be a sports fan to identify with what Phillies Nation (and other fan bases) are going through.

Where do we turn to give voice to our baseball-related grief? How about the writings of a recently deceased Swiss psychiatrist named Elisabeth Kubler-Ross. Why, of course.

In her 1969 (the year of the Amazin’ Mets, but I digress) book, On Death and Dying, Kubler-Ross identified five stages of grief, which are:

 

Denial

Anger

Begging

Depression

Acceptance

To simplify Kubler-Ross’ groundbreaking, seminal work, she noted that individuals who are trying to recover from such a loss may not all go through these exact five stages in this exact order.

So, what about those losses experienced by sports fans? They seem kind of inconsequential compared to death and dying in the real world.

Yet, the grief is still palpable, and many sports fans also feel more control over this kind of loss. We certainly need a way to process our grief.

 

Kubler-Ross gave us DABDA; Goldberg offers you SPORTS.

Check out the following guideline, and feel free to move through it at your own pace. It’s only been six days since the unceremonious end to the Phillies’ season, and I’m not sure where I am in this whole process, either.

 

 

SHOCK 

Immediately, Phillies fans went into a sense of shock as their once-potent offense could not find a way to score a single run in their bandbox of a field when it mattered most.

 “This can’t be happening again” is likely to be voiced in this stage, if we truly can find our voices in these moments. Most of us had no words for the site of slugger Ryan Howard grounding out to second to make the last out of the season two years in a row, and then crumbling to the ground halfway down the first baseline.

 

Sometimes words are not needed to express these moments of exasperation. Good grief may have been an option for a kid…in the 1960s…in Minnesota. Not now, not yet.

 

PRAYER (PERSPECTIVE)

Immediately after the event, many fans offered up a prayer that their team would get a mulligan and earn another shot at Game 5. Right now!

“This didn’t just happen…what the ___?!”

You get the idea. Some of us were more philosophical shortly after the disaster, and sought refuge and comfort in statistics that prove that the best team usually does not win in baseball’s postseason, especially in a best-of-five format.

Yeah, like that helps us ease the pain.

 

OBLIVION

Some of us are so oblivious to the loss that we are still matching up the Phillies and the Milwaukee Brewers in our mind—and on paper. Who would do such a thing? By the way, I have the Phillies winning in six.

Many of us are not exactly oblivious to the loss, but may be oblivious to everything else in life. All that real stuff we’re just not ready to face yet. I’d make a list if I could think straight.

 

RAGE

This is Philly. We get pissed off when our cereal’s too soggy.

Many were the chairs I’ve broken and holes I’ve punched in walls after my teams lost crucial games. But that was then.

Now, I just go ballistic verbally; well, I usually do. But there’s just one problem this year: I don’t know who to get pissed off at.

There’s always the umpires.

Heck, Philly sports fan of a certain vintage still get enraged at the very mention of a certain hockey official named Leon Stickle. Stickle refused to make an easy offside call in a Flyers-Islanders NHL championship game 31 years ago! Take a look if you wish to; sorry about the quality of the video feed.

 

Well, there wasn’t a Leon Stickle this year to vilify, although home plate umpire Jerry Meals absolutely reeked in our crushing Game 2 loss. The less said the better, but…

Meals’ absolute clueless interpretation of the strike zone did pitcher Cliff Lee no favors as he ended up blowing a 4-0 lead in the 5-4 loss that gave the Cardinals life.

So, let’s kill Cliff Lee, as some are. Well, it’s not as if the guy stunk out there or walked the whole ballpark. It wasn’t his best game, but the guy always pitches his heart out, pitched pretty well that night (freakin’ Meals!), tried his best to find the postage-stamp of a strike zone (and managed to strike out nine and only walk two) and also took the blame afterward.

Lee remains as likable an elite athlete as has played in this town in decades.

How about Charlie Manuel? He doesn’t always make the best moves, but to know Uncle Cholly is to love him.

Ryan Howard? Yes, he’s about to make 25 million big ones per year, and he came up tiny again, especially his final fruitless 15 at-bats. But he did hit a three-run bomb to win Game 1, and he’s one of the nicest, coolest guys around. Plus, there’s that Achilles tendon he ruptured on the last play.

In truth, the Phillies are an incredibly admirable, lovable bunch of guys. I can’t really vent my rage at anyone, even the front office. Now that ticks me off.

 

TV OR NOT TV

 

Some of us try to seek solace in watching lots of television.

The more provincial baseball fans among Phillies Nation really want nothing more to do with the sport until next spring and try to get by watching sitcoms, videos and the like.

I’m way too much of a baseball lover to go this route, and I still get excited watching the ALCS and NLCS. Having said that, and even while watching my favorite player in the game, Albert Pujols, do his thing for the Cardinals, it’s just not the same. He’s not playing for my team.

 

SPRING

The last stage in the grieving process is to simply wait for the spring.

I’m not even ready to focus on the 2012 season yet, even though I’ll eventually re-assume the role of pundit and unofficial general manager while considering which players should be re-signed, cast aside and pursued.

I’m just not there yet, even if some of my fellow grievers may be well into this process.

I expect to face a long, cold, icy winter, and I don’t expect the Philadelphia Eagles to provide much shelter and warmth.

Let the spring come in its due course and when we really need it to boost our morale and regenerate all that positive energy and optimism that we Phillies fans need.

So, there it is: an unspecified period of SHOCK, PRAYER, OBLIVION, RAGE and TV prior to SPRING.

I’m willing to go through these four or so months of grieving; I also won’t complain if the next four months go by relatively quickly.

Good grief, I don’t ask for much.

 

As always, thank you for reading. Please check out my other books, blogs and speaking information…from (the) TipoftheGoldberg.com

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NLCS 2011: 5 Key Aspects of Phillies-Cardinals Series Heading into Game 5

While Phillies Nation (but hopefully, not the players) nervously await Friday night’s NLCS rubber game versus the Cardinals, MLB and more neutral fans must be celebrating the good fortune of three of the four division series heading to winner-take-all games.

Can baseball have drawn it up much better? It almost matches the insane drama of the last night of the regular season, featuring four climactic games being played almost simultaneously.

The drama and tension of the Phillies-Cardinals series is palpable. It’s hard to make complete sense of what has happened in the first four games (surprises have abounded, without even analyzing the baserunning skills of a certain, notorious squirrel), but is a Game 5 all that surprising?

I admit that I am a little surprised: I predicted the Phillies to win in four.  

What follows is my take on Five Key Aspects of the Phillies-Cardinals NLCS.

Begin Slideshow

2011 NLDS: Yes, the Cards Can Upset the Phillies…It Says Here They Won’t

The Philadelphia Phillies, the best team in MLB during the regular season, host the hottest team in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals, in a best-of-five series starting Saturday evening. There are many reasons for all of Phillies Nation to be quite cautious.

My colleague, Kelly Scaletta—a fine writer who often covers his favorite baseball team—outlined five reasons that the Cards (90-72, and a wild card from the NL Central) can upset the Phillies (102-60, the NL East champions). He offered me a chance to produce a counterpoint, and here it is. His points (paraphrased) are in bold.

 

1. The Cardinals’ starting pitchers have pitched great against the Phillies this year

The Cards’ ace, Chris Carpenter (announced as the Game 2 starter, who may pitch again on short rest if there were a Game 5), gave up only one run in 15 innings vs. the Phils.this year. Kyle Lohse, the Game 1 hurler, pitched to a 1.76 ERA in 15.1. Jaime Garcia has bedeviled the Phillies the last two years, and he has matched Carpenter’s stinginess this year.

At this time, we don’t know if mid-season acquisition Edwin Jackson or veteran Jake Westbrook will get the ball in a fourth game, but even so, those numbers are impressive.

Impressive? Yes. Concerning? Oh, a little.

Former Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter has logged a ton of innings and seems to be peaking, judging from his masterpiece shutout of the Astros on Wednesday night. Will he be as impressive on three days’ rest? That’s an unknown.

 

Lohse has pitched well vs. the Phillies, but even the Cards must admit that it would be a bonus if he hangs with Roy Halladay in the opener.

Garcia is a little more troubling, but he has never pitched in the postseason before. He may shine in the spotlight; he may shrink from it.

Yes, the Cardinals were 6-3 head-to-head vs. the Phillies, but five of those games were played before Hunter Pence added balance and pop to the lineup. The Cardinals did take three out of four in Philly a couple weeks ago, but their incentive to win was much greater than their host’s. Give them credit, but not too much.

 

2. The Cardinals had the best offense in the NL this year

Yes they did, and objectively, the Cards’ offense was a little better than the Phillies’ this year.

The Cardinals hit for a higher batting average (.274 to .253), hit a few more homers (162-153) and had the better OPS (.766 to .718). As a result, the Cards scored the most runs in the NL (766, an average of 4.7 per game) compared to the Phillies (713, 4.4 per game).

One might assert that if the Phillies had Pence for more than 54 games, they would have been closer to their NLDS opponents in all those areas. I would agree.

Yes, the Cards—especially if Matt Holliday is in the lineup—may still be a little better on paper offensively, but I think that the edge is tiny,

Of course, the edge the Cards may hold in hitting is dwarfed by the edge the Phillies have in pitching. The Phillies’ staff had an ERA of 3.02 (tops in the majors), much better than the Cardinals’ 3.74.

 

In the final analysis, should the Phils respect, if not fear, any lineup that can feature Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman as their 3-4-5? Yes. But last year, the Phillies shut down another team that led the NL in runs scored in the NLDS—the Cincinnati Reds.

 

3. The Cards are especially motivated to win for Pujols

As a full disclosure, I admit that I am about as big a Pujols fan as there is on the planet. It’s been that way since he broke into the bigs in 2001, and he has assaulted MLB pitchers ever since. I’m a fan and something of a Pujolsologist.

Even in an off-year (by his immense standards) due to injuries and contract uncertainty, Pujols still posted numbers that all but a few players in the NL would have liked to have matched this year.

As far as extra motivation, that is hard to gauge. Give the Cards credit for winning 22 of their final 31; that and an epic Atlanta Braves collapse got them here.

On the other hand, the Cards had that same motivation, and only won 68 of their previous 131. Even in their last seven games (against the lowly Mets, Cubs and Astros), they were only 4-3, and one was a total gift by a wild Cubs reliever named Carlos Marmol.

They’re not that hot, and I would surmise that both teams have huge motivation.

 

4. The Tony La Russa factor

Like him or not, most baseball fans respect what TLR brings to a team.

Two world championships, 59 postseason wins and a 9-3 career record in the first round.

In the other dugout is Charlie Manuel, who in a much shorter career as a manager, has won one championship, compiled a career 27-19 postseason record and has won three out of four first-round matchups with the Phillies.

La Russa may rate a slim edge overall, but Charlie has always known the correct buttons to push to motivate his team.

 

5. The Cardinals won the season series 6-3

Kudos to the Redbirds for doing so. Baseball, like most sports (except for stroke-play golf) is all about matchups; do they have the Phillies’ number?

Nine games is a very small sample size in baseball, and some of the effects of those games could be rationalized by a couple factors: a) the Phils did not have Pence for five games; and b) the Cardinals were desperate to win the last time in Philly, whereas the home team had little motivation.

I don’t subscribe to the theory that the Cardinals own the matchups, even if three of their starters have had terrific numbers in their starts this season.

I would put stock in these three factors—elemental as they are.

Team Records

Quite simply, the Phillies won a MLB-best 102 games; the Cards were victors 90 times.

Cardinals fans are in good position to counter this fact, as the best team over 162 games does not always win it all. In 2004, the Redbirds went 105-57 and got swept by the Red Sox.

The 2005 team won 100, but lost to Houston in the NLCS despite that epic blast by Pujols over Brad (once Lights-Out) Lidge.

Ironically, their 2006 team (only 83-78) won it all.

Having recognized that, I’ll still take the team that won 12 more times in the regular season.

 

Bullpens

Mariano Rivera is not coming out of either team’s pen, but on the whole, the Phillies have the more reliable closer in Ryan Madson (32 out of 34 saves).  While this has been his first year as the team’s main closer, he has lots of postseason experience. Antonio Bastardo has converted eight of his nine chances.

For the Cards, Fernando Salas and Jason Motte both had pretty good ERAs, but they blew 10 of 43 save opportunities between them. Only Motte has seen postseason duty—one inning in 2009.

 

Experience of the Starting Rotation

Almost any sane baseball pundit will concede that the Phillies have the better starting rotation, and the best one in baseball. Of course, that will all go out the window if Lohse bests Halladay in the opener or Carpenter gets the better of Cliff Lee in Game 2.

If you count Jake Westbrook (1-2, 5.60 postseason) as the No. 4 starter, the Cards’ rotation has a combined record of 6-6. Carpenter is a solid 5-2, 2.93; Lohse is 0-2, 3.38; Garcia has yet to toe the rubber in October and Westbrook is 1-2, 5.06. Jackson has never started in the postseason.

The Phillies counter with Halladay (2-1, 2.45); Lee (7-2, 2.13); Hamels (6-4, 3.33) and Oswalt (5-1, 3,.39)—a combined won-loss record of 21-8.

 

Final Analysis and Prediction

I would like to think that I have much more than a pittance of baseball knowledge, even if one should not bet the farm on my projections. Would you like some evidence?

The Cardinals are a worthy opponent with a terrific manager and for my money, (still) the best hitter in the game.

All that said, the Phillies offer a much better starting rotation, a slightly better bullpen and an experienced lineup that should be able to hit with St. Louis.

Part of me thinks the Cards will split the first two in Philly and take it to five. The other part of me is feeling a sweep.

So, I’ll split the difference: Phillies in a very entertaining four-game series..

 

Matt Goldberg, a featured columnist for the Philadelphia Phillies and all-around baseball fanatic, is also a noted humor author and speaker. For more information, please visit www.tipofthegoldberg.com

 

 

 

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