Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels and the Top 5 Phillies in May

The Philadelphia Phillies started and ended the month of May in first place in the NL East, and technically increased their lead over the Florida Marlins from one-and-a-half games to two.

For the month, the red-pinstriped gang played to a fairly good 16-13 record, which was a step down from their excellent 18-8 April. Still, their overall 34-21 record projects to 100 wins, which would be a three-game improvement over their MLB-best 97 win campaign of 2010.

As in April, injuries dominated a lot of the May headlines. Many players including catchers Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider, centerfielder Shane Victorino and starter Joe Blanton spent significant time on the Disabled List. All but Ruiz are still there, as is incumbent closer Brad Lidge.

On a more positive note, the Phillies heartily welcomed back second baseman Chase Utley, rightfielder Domonic Brown, starter Roy Oswalt and reliever Jose Contreras from the DL this month.

With so many moving parts on the MASH unit known as their 2011 active roster, it was not an easy task to choose and rank the top 5 Phillies of the month.

But even though I feel as if I am playing hurt, the (slide) show must go on. Please consider these players our Top 5 Phillies in May.

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies: Are Halladay, Howard and Gang Over or Under Expectations?

On a cold, February morning, I proposed 33 over-under proposition bets to keep the Philadelphia Phillies season interesting.

Truth be told, for baseball lifers like yours truly, baseball is always fascinating, and the Florida Marlins, the Atlanta Braves and the ever-busy Disabled List have all kept things quite interesting so far.

How interesting? With their 5-4 Memorial Day matinee win over the Nationals, the Phils stand at 34-20, which is the best record in baseball. They have done so despite a rash of injuries that may have buried a lesser team.

With 54 games in the books, exactly two-thirds of the season remains to be played. This seems like a fun time to re-examine  those 33 over-and-unders I proposed while awaiting Spring Training.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/605820-phillies-2011-preview-33-over-unders-to-keep-the-season-interesting

 

PITCHERS AND CATCHERS

 

1. Combined wins by R2C2 (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels):  71

With Halladay’s win over the Nats, R2C2 now has combined for 21 wins against 11 losses. That puts them on pace for 63 wins. This should come down to the wire, as an injury to Oswalt and very poor run support for—especially—Lee, have deflated this number a bit.

2. Combined innings by R2C2: 850

Halladay (a National League-leading 91.1), Lee (74.2) and Hamels (74.2) all rank in the top six in this category. Injuries have reduced Oswalt’s workload to 45 innings. Collectively, they have pitched 285.2 innings, which puts them on pace for 855.6. They’re just over the pace needed.

3. Combined strikeouts for R2C2: 800

The three healthy pitchers are all in contention for the strikeout crown; Oswalt has some catching up to do. Collectively, they have fanned 284 hitters, which projects to a most impressive 852. They’re striking out a man per inning, while yielding very few walks.

4. Combined complete games for R2C2: 20

Halladay looks like he’s going to lead the majors in this category again, and is setting a great pace with four. Lee and Hamels have one apiece, which puts R2C2 on pace for 18.

5. Wins by Joe Blanton in a Phils uniform: 6

I proposed this more as a nod to trade rumors than to concerns over Big Joe’s injuries and ineffectiveness. Blanton his the one-third pole with one victory in his six starts. This, of course, puts him on target for three wins.

6. Saves for Brad Lidge: 33

Ouch. Injuries have kept the—erstwhile?—closer on the DL all season; you do the math. However, Ryan Madson is on pace for 36.

7. Batting average for Carlos Ruiz: .285

Coming off a .302 season, this seemed like a compromise projection for the career .259 hitter. Ruiz is only batting .250 so far, but don’t count him out just yet.

8. Homers for Chooch: 11

Chooch is only on pace for six, but has missed a bunch of games. I still like this number.

 

THE REST OF THE LINEUP

9. Home runs for Ryan Howard:  44

Howard’s 12 homers—he’s already pushed Ruiz’s prop bet—has him on pace for 36.

10. RBI for Howard: 136

The Big Piece is vying for the league lead with 42, which projects to 126. He has done so despite being surrounded by an erratic, ever-changing lineup.

11. Whiffs for Howard:  180

Howard’s 65 whiffs—projects to 195—make 200 a possibility.

12. Games played for Chase Utley: 145

Oh well, this one’s down the drain. Utley has now played in seven of 54 games, Would you believe 100?

13. Homers for Chase: 28

Chase has launched one so far, but if he gets really, really hot…

14. HBP for Chase: 23

Utley led the league each year from 2007 thru 2009. He’s been plunked once already, and Phillies fans hope he does not even approach this number.

15. Games played for Jimmy Rollins: 145

Jimmy’s been healthy so far, only missing one game. I don’t think he’ll keep up this (159 game) pace, but he has a very good chance of hitting the over here.

16. Runs scored for Jimmy: 105

His 30 runs project to 90. If he stays healthy, and patient, he can do it. He is on pace for 69 walks, which would set a career high.

17.  Stolen bases for Rollins: 32

This looks like a good number. Rollins has swiped 12 bases, which projects to 36.

18. Placido Polanco’s batting average: .300

Polly has cooled off from his torrid start, but still stands at a very nice .317.

19. Will Polanco reach 2,000 career hits before or after September 15?

Placido has 66 hits and 1902 total. This one should be very close to the pin.

20. Games played for Wilson Valdez: 55

I think Valdez has this one cinched. His 45 games project to 135, and even if Utley and Rollins never sit out, he may get 11 more appearances as a reliever.

21. Will Raul Ibanez finish the season in a Phillies uniform?

At first glance, Ibanez’ detractors would ask “Who needs him?” On second glance, the Philies do, at least for 2011.

22. RBI for Raul: 90

Don’t laugh just yet. On May 1, Ibanez was batting .154. Now, he’s at a respectable .246, and on pace to knock in 87 runs. it’s been a great battle back for the for true professional.

23. Batting average for Shane Victorino:  .285

Yet another Phillie on the DL, Shane is hitting .284. 

24. Homers for Shane: 13

Although he’s already missed 15 games, the Flyin’ Hawaiian has popped six, which projects to his tying his career mark of 18, set last year.

25. At-bats for Domonic Brown: 250

That infamous Hook of Hamate injury has limited Brown to 29 MLB at-bats so far.

26. Homers for D-Brown: 14

He has not launched any so far.

27. Games played for Ben Francisco: 115

This one will be interesting. His 48 games project to 144, but will he play well enough to stay in the everyday lineup?

28. Ben’s batting average: .270

Francisco hit .268 last season, but carries a .229 BA thus far.

29. Homers for Ross Gload: 8

In limited duty, Gload has not put any in the seats so far. In fairness to him, I’m not counting foul balls, or homers rocketed in BP.

 

TEAM NUMBERS

30. Total Wins in 2011: 100

Somewhat amazingly, this collection of the walking wounded is now on pace to win 102 games.

31. Games ahead at the All-Star break: 4

The Phils are two-and-a-half games ahead of the Marlins (in action Monday night; this one also figures to be close.

32. Games the Phils will win the NL East by: 7

With that two-and-a-half game lead, they are on pace to win by seven-and-a-half games.

33. Games the Phils will finish ahead of the New York Mets: 13

In February, I wrote: It was a margin of 18 last year, but can the Mets be that bad again?

Well, the Phillies are on pace to win 102, and the Mets project to win about 75. So, I guess they can be that bad.

 

To summarize, other than the projections that were destroyed by injuries, a majority of these propositions will come right down to the wire. Would you have it any other way?

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Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard Snap Slumps, Lead Phillies to 2-0 Win over Rangers

Philadelphia Phillies fans knew that Cliff Lee would eventually get his third win—wouldn’t he?

Ryan Howard was due to bust out of a career-worst slump that saw him go hitless in 23 consecutive at-bats. Would this be the night?

And the Phillies offense was bound to get seven or more hits in a game for the first time, seemingly, since the Nixon Administration. Could all three happen in one fell swoop?

Yes, yes, and remarkably, yes.

Playing before their 160th straight sellout crowd, the National League-leading Phillies rode the superb pitching of Cliff Lee and the home-run power of first baseman Ryan Howard to notch a 2-0 inter-league victory over the visiting Texas Rangers.

For Lee, it was his first win since April 14, snapping his own career-worst (tying) skid of six consecutive starts without a win.

The unfortunate streak was more of a monument to the ineptitude of the Phillies offense than a statement on Lee’s pitching, but the 37 days without a win had to have caused a large gorilla to be perched on Lee’s back.

How is this stat for you? In his previous six starts, the Phillies had managed to score exactly one run for Lee while he was still pitching. Lee had pitched anywhere from six to seven innings in each of those starts, only giving up more than three earned runs one time.

In those six games, Lee was 0-3, and the Phils were 2-4 as a team. For the season, he entered the start against Texas with seven quality starts—three or fewer earned runs yielded while pitching at least six innings—out of nine, but only had a 2-4 record to show for his good work.

For only the second time in Lee’s last seven starts, the Phillies managed to actually scored a run for him before the sixth inning, thanks to Ryan Howard, who put an end to his own recent miseries at the plate.

Leading off the bottom of the second, the slugger drove a low-inside fastball from Lee’s ex-teammate Colby Lewis into the right field bleachers.

As it turned out, it would be the only run the smooth lefty from Arkansas would need—or receive from his teammates until John Mayberry Jr. singled in a run with two outs in the seventh.

Lee, who really started finding a beautiful rhythm in the fifth inning—when he struck out the side—made that one run look like six or seven, His biggest scare of the night may have come from the unlikely bat of Lewis.

Lewis lined a ball off of Lee’s back to start the top of the third. The ball, fortuitously, missed doing serious damage to Lee, and also caromed to an alert shortstop, Jimmy Rollins, who threw to Howard to nip the pitcher at first.

Cliff Lee, who also looks at home with a bat in his hand, did his best to try to spark his offense, singling with two outs in the fifth to send Wilson Valdez to third.

Taking advantage of an indifferent Rangers defense, Lee easily stole second base, putting two runners in scoring position for Rollins.

In a strange sequence, Valdez took home plate on a wild pitch. After a discussion, Valdez was summoned out of the dugout to return to third and Rollins was awarded first (correctly) as the pitch was ruled to have grazed the shortstop’s foot.

The crowd would have exploded if rightfielder Domonic Brown, just called up to the parent club, had delivered with a big, bases-loaded hit, but the top prospect only was able to hit a can of corn to right to end the inning.

Perhaps, the baseball gods, in some sort of Faustian bargain with Lee, had decreed that he could pitch for the team and the fans that he wanted to, but that he would never do so with any real run support.

Lee, still with only a 1-0 lead to work with, pitched out of what constituted trouble in the seventh. Lee yielded a one-out single to Mike Napoli, before getting David Murphy to fly out to left.

Fellow Arkansas Razorback Gary Gentry stepped in, and did battle with Lee, drawing a 3-2 payoff pitch. On pitch No. 100 for the game, Lee struck the centerfielder out for his ninth “K” of the contest.

The man with the No. 33 jersey would go on to fan his 10th and final batter; the start was the fifth this season in which Lee had struck out at least 10.  

Skipper Charlie Manuel gave Lee a rest after his 122-pitch, eight-inning masterpiece, and turned it over to Ryan Madson, who is looking every bit the part of an All-Star closer.

First baseman Michael Young greeted Madson with a leadoff single to right, but Placido Polanco turned a bullet by Adrian Beltre into a 5-4-3 double play.

A fly ball off the bat of Mike Napoli found John Mayberry’s glove in deep center, and with that, Cliff Lee, and all of his fans, were able to celebrate a win for the lefty ace for the first time in 37 days.

Just another pitcher’s duel in that little bandbox called Citizens Bank Park.

 

GOLD NOTES

Prior to tonight, the Phillies had not connected for more than six hits in a game in seven consecutive contests. They exploded for a total of eight against the Rangers.

Philly fans in general, and Phillies fans in particular, can get a bad rap, but there was a nice moment in the seventh where they showed their knowledge of the game and appreciation for a good effort.

With one out in the seventh, Lee slapped a slow roller to shortstop, and busted it down the line, but Wilson Andrus’ throw just beat him to the bag. Phillies fans, astutely, gave him a very warm ovation as he trotted back to the dugout.

Lee also authored his own odd moment in the top of the sixth. Ian Kinsler singled with two outs and nobody on.

Lee, pitching from a windup instead of the stretch, allowed Kinsler to waltz into second with the tying run. Lee pitched out of it, throwing one of his better pitches of the night to get Young (3-4 on the night) looking.

……

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books (Wordapodia, Volume One and All That Twitters is Not Goldberg), as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Awarding the Top Phillie of the Week (in a so-so Week)

In This Past Week in Phillies Baseball, the men in red traveled to the southern reaches of the NL East, visiting the Florida Marlins and the Atlanta Braves.

The Phils completed the week (defined as Monday through Sunday) with a 3-3 record, taking two from the Marlins and dropping the final two to the Braves. It was good enough to keep them two games ahead of the Marlins in the NL East, and they retained their best record in the league status.

It was a week that Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel went with a four-man pitching rotation of Joe Blanton, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels; the first pair getting two starts apiece.

It was a week that also saw almost as much Major League talent suit up for the Single-A Clearwater Threshers—last Thursday night’s contest saw pitcher Roy Oswalt, catcher Carlos Ruiz and second baseman Chase Utley all start for the Floridian minor leaguers—as performed for the parent club.

While these three All-Star caliber players were rehabbing in A-ball, and outfielder Domonic Brown was also playing himself back into MLB shape, the Phillies were giving lots of playing time to the likes of Pete Orr, Ross Gload, Wilson Valdez and John Mayberry, Jr.

The week saw ace of aces Halladay pitch two strong games but come away with two losses. Second banana Cliff Lee pitched pretty well on Wednesday evening, but got pulled early (in the top of the seventh). Manuel was desperate to get any offense going for Lee, who could sue his offense for non-support and win more millions for his family.

With no wins to show for his last five starts, I’m sure Lee would give back tons of loot to pick up a win or two. It got so interesting for Lee that even when he scorched a single off Omar Infante’s glove (or leg) with two outs in the top of the fifth to apparently knot the game at 1-1, backup catcher Brain Schneider (a fill-in himself for the then-injured Carlos Ruiz) strained a left hamstring rounding third. The wounded catcher retreated to first base before being pulled from the game.

To the Phillies’ credit, they would fight back to win 5-3, but they scored no runs in six innings while Lee was still hurling.

Curiosities like this, and a very erratic offense, make it hard for me to award my Top Phillie of the Week Award, but here goes, from No. 6 to No.1.

6. John Mayberry, Jr. played in five games, but had a grand total of six at-bats this week. He did what he could with them, going 2-for-6 with a homer, two RBI and two stolen bases.

Mayberry was the Phillies’ offense in the 3-2 loss to the Marlins yesterday, launching a two-run homer in the top of the sixth. He also drew two walks and stole a base, but the rest of the offense did not deliver. For the season, he is slashing .295/.415/.500.

5. Ryan Howard only went 5-for-23 (.217), but he slugged his ninth homer, drove in five and scored four. He leads the league with 35 RBI and is fifth in home runs with nine. Just wait ’till the perennial All-Star really heats up.

4. This may, in fact, be a sympathy vote for Cliff Lee. The people’s choice only threw six innings and gave up three earned runs on seven hits (while striking out four against no walks), but the man is pitching with absolutely no margin for error these days. (And he did stroke what should have been a game-tying hit with two outs in the fifth.)

Lee will have a chance to break that five-game skid against Jake Westbrook and the St. Louis Cardinals. Is this the night he gets rewarded again?

3. Roy Halladay: Maybe the Phillies’ offense is starting to give Doc Halladay the Cliff Lee treatment. Phillies fans, pray not!

Doc pitched 16 innings and two more complete games this past week, but only had two losses to show for it. He yielded 13 hits, walked four and fanned 16. The four earned runs made his ERA 2.25 for the week and 2.21 for the season.

2. Vance Worley, after two terrific starts, was brought back to the bullpen with Big Joe back in the starting rotation. He was not perfect in the two games, but only yielded three hits and one run in his four innings. Worley did earn holds in both starts, and his record for the season is now 2-0 with a 1.24 ERA.

My co-runner-up this week is Antonio Bastardo, who continues to impress. AB threw just 1.1 innings without a run, struck out two and walked one. He has replaced J.C. Romero as the go-to lefty (for now, anyway) and his 2-0 record with the 1.26 ERA—to say nothing of his 21 Ks, seven walks and only seven hits in 14.1 innings—is quite encouraging.

1. This week’s winner of the TPW Award is…Ryan Madson. The former king of the eighth has shown that he can also own the ninth inning this year.

For the week, R-Mad earned three saves in as many appearances and surrendered only one hit and one walk while striking out four batters.

He has excelled all year and is now six-for-six in save opportunities, while compiling a 2-0 record with an 0.56 ERA, a WHIP of 0.94 and an opponents’ batting average of .161.

Not only is Madson our Top Phillie of the Week, but he is also on a short list of Team MVP candidates for this young season.

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books (Wordapodia, Volume One and All That Twitters is Not Goldberg), as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Who Was This Week’s Top Phillie?

The Philadelphia Phillies hosted two division rivals this week, and almost did what they had to do.

The good news: They scored 18 runs while sweeping Jayson Werth and the Washington Nationals. This was more than enough offense, given the fine pitching performances of Cole Hamels, Vance Worley and Roy Halladay.

Now, for the bad news: They ran into a hot Atlanta Braves team this past weekend, and only eked out five total runs in dropping two of the three showdowns.

The week’s action saw the Phils hang on to first place in the NL East with a terrific 22-11 record. But, Florida is only two back and those Braves—with their plethora of potent pitchers— lurk at only three-and-half back.

For the week, the Phillies scored 23 runs while yielding only 18. If you have been watching, that’s not too surprising. On the young season, their team ERA is 3.06, and they average 4.36 runs per contest.

So, in yet another pitching-rich (with mediocre offense) week, who are the leading candidates for my Top Phillie of the Week Award?

Let’s count down from No. 7 to this year’s proud (we hope) winner.

7. Jimmy Rollins: J-Roll looked more comfortable in his familiar leadoff position, and responded by batting .348 (8-for-23) with four runs and two RBI in the six games. Most importantly, he resembled a leadoff man this week, drawing five walks and only striking out once.

As such, he just edges out center fielder Shane Victorino, who hit safely in all six games. Victorino went 8-for-24 (.333) with three runs, five RBI and two stolen bases.

Sorry, Shane, but we need room for our pitching staff and another outfielder who came out of his coma this week.

6. Cole Hamels: Hamels started the week with a win and closed it with a loss, but pitched well enough to win both.

He yielded only one run on five hits in a complete game, 4-1 win over the Nats. Yesterday, Cole was charged with three runs on five hits in seven innings of service.

For the week, Hamels pitched 16 innings, giving up 10 hits and four earned runs (good for a 2.25 ERA). Even more impressively, he struck out 15 while only walking two batters.

5. Cliff Lee: This may seem like a sentimental pick, as Lee lost the only game he started, 5-0 to the Braves on Friday night. Sentimental? Let’s examine the numbers.

Lee gave up three earned runs on nine hits in seven innings—his fifth quality start in seven outings.

Against the Braves, Cliff struck out a remarkable 16 batters, nine of them looking. Some so-so defense did him in the third, an inning where he gave up those three runs. Interestingly, he struck out the side—all looking—that same inning!

For the season, the prize free agent is 2-3 with a 3.69 ERA. He has also fanned a MLB-best 60 batters against only seven walks. Tough luck and lack of support would be an understatement.

4. Kyle Kendrick: Kendrick got the start on Saturday night, matched up with Braves 20-year-old phenom Julio Teheran. One would not blame KK if he were not up to the task, as his previous eight appearances this year have been out of the pen (and none longer than three innings).

Kendrick picked up the win, pitching five innings of two-hit, shutout ball. He limited his walks to one, while striking out three.

3. Raul Ibanez: The veteran outfielder snapped out of his 0-for-438 (or whatever it was) slumber, and exploded against the Nationals. Raul went 10-for-22 (.455) with two homers, five RBI and four runs.

At .212, he still needs to remain hot (or go on a diet) to hit his weight, but the left fielder was batting a measly .154 prior to this week’s tear.

2. Roy Halladay: Is there any other Phillies player (and one can go back 20 years or so) of whom we take his excellence for granted?

Doc got the best of the Nats again, pitching seven innings of two-run ball in the 7-3 win. Big Roy struck out 10 while not issuing a free pass.

One of the beauties of the Phillies vaunted rotation is their amazing k/bb ratio. Doc and Lee may be the top two in MLB in that regard, and Hamels and Oswalt (who, hopefully, will return to the mound in a couple weeks) are also stingy when it comes to handing out free passes.

1. Our No. 1 spot this week goes to 23-year-old righty Vance Worley. Worley only threw six innings against the Nats, but earned the win while yielding only one run on four hits.

The Long Beach State product fanned seven and walked none. For his superb work, the man with an 0.75 ERA in two starts earns an uncertain immediate future with the team.

But, Vance, look on the bright side: In just six innings of work, you walked away with our fourth Top Phillie of the Week Award.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Alone in First, but Entering Atlanta Braves’ New World

The Phillies stand at 21-9, two games ahead of the Marlins, and four-and-a-half games clear of the Atlanta Braves—who come to South Philly tonight for the start of a three-game series.

Starting with tonight’s contest, the Phils will play 20 games in 21 days exclusively against teams with winning records.

It will be interesting to see what the standings will look like at the end of this 20-game stretch. As of today, the NL East looks like this:

Philadelphia Phillies    21-9

Florida Marlins            19-11

Atlanta Braves            18-15

Washington Nats        14-17

New York Mets           13-18

To most pundits, the biggest surprise of the division is the Florida Marlins. who are doing it mostly with great starting pitching (led by Josh Johnson, who is still 3-1, 1.68 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, even after getting hit around a little by the Cardinals yesterday). To their credit, the Marlins are also doing so despite a very slow start from superb shortstop Hanley Ramirez (.200, 1 HR and an OPS of .582).

Right behind them are, of course, the Braves—the team that many predicted would be the biggest obstacle to the Phillies capturing their fifth straight NL East title. For the first few weeks, Atlanta only got in their own way, but they are starting to jell and arrive at Citizens Bank Park riding the confidence of a five-game win streak.

The Braves are waiting for former Marlins all-star second baseman Dan Uggla (.211/.268/.383) to produce, and second-year star Jason Heyward has yet to explode, but they have a stockpile of great young arms that has carried them to a league-best 2.96 ERA.

In assessing the Braves’ pitching staff, you may wish to consider this: Opening Day starter Derek Lowe, who has always pitched well versus the Phillies (7-5, 3.17 ERA in 15 career starts) has the worst ERA of their top five starters at a respectable 3.71.

The other four Braves starters all have sub-3.00 ERAs in the early going, led by Jair Jurrjens, just 25, with a 3-0 record, 1.52 ERA and a WHIP of 1.01. He is every bit as hard to hit as his name is hard to pronounce and spell.

Tommy Hanson, 24, has gotten off to a 4-3 start, but has pitched even better than his record (2.63 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) indicates. Veteran Tim Hudson, coming off a one-hit shutout of the Brewers, is 4-2 with a 2.86 ERA and an 0.95 WHIP and Brandon Beachy, 25, is 1-1 / 2.98 / 0.97.

The Braves’ rotation, while not as celebrated as the Phillies’ own R2C2 (or their own Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz-led groups of the ’90s), has the stuff to keep them in almost every game they play.

The Phillies, certainly, have gotten terrific pitching from their vaunted rotation this year, despite Joe Blanton’s ineffectiveness (and assignment to the Disabled List) and Roy Oswalt missing a turn for personal reasons.

Tonight’s starter, Cliff Lee, is winless in his last three starts, but has looked anywhere from good to dominating in four of his six starts this year. The veteran lefty is stuck on two wins (2-2) but his stats have been good:  a 3.66 ERA, a WHIP of 1,12 and his typically wonderful K/BB ratio of 44/6 in 39.1 innings.

Lee’s only poor outing of 2011 took place in Atlanta on April 8. He was shelled for 10 hits and six earned runs in a short 3.1 innings of work. In four career starts versus the Braves, Lee has yet to really solve them, carrying a 1-2 mark with a 6.98 ERA.

It would be an overstatement for me to write that a loss to the Braves tonight would signal a crisis for either Lee or the team. On the other hand, four straight starts without a win for their co-ace would be cause for at least minor concern.

Indeed, a win tonight (preferably, one earned by Lee) would get what appears to be a very difficult 20-game stretch off to an auspicious start.

In the next three weeks, the Phillies will do battle six times with the Braves, three times apiece with the Marlins and Cincinnati Reds, two apiece with the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies and three more with the AL West’s Texas Rangers.

These next six opponents—four of whom can make the postseason—have a combined record of 106-81, good for a .567 winning percentage, which is much better than they have faced in their first 30 games (a combined .464 percentage).

On the other hand, the Phillies have streaked to a MLB-best .700 winning percentage, despite missing Chase Utley, Brad Lidge and Domonic Brown for all 30 games, and seeing several other important players—including Carlos Ruiz, Jose Contreras and Joe Blanton—currently disabled.

To put all of this in perspective, I offer you baseball cliché No. 753: Baseball seasons are marathons, not sprints. Indeed, even after this 20-game stretch is in the books, there will be 112 more games to play in the regular season.

Even so, a win by Cliff Lee and an early lead of five-and-one-half games over the Braves, will look terrific tonight.

And then we can ponder what the standings, the starting lineup and the pitching rotation will (and should) look like on May 26.

 

Gold Notes – Update:

The first game of the twenty did not go well for Phillies Nation.

Derek Lowe gave up only two hits in six innings, which is all the Phillies got for the game.

Cliff Lee struck out 16 Braves, and only issued one free pass, but had one bad inning (three runs on three hits) which were sandwiched around striking out three batters looking. Wow!

The bottom of the seventh told the tale. Victorino singled to start things, followed by a long double by Placido Polanco that took an unfortunate hop over the fence, or it would have been a run-scoring double or triple. It should not have mattered, but reliever Ed O’Flaherty came in and looked like a prime Randy Johnson, whiffing Ryan Howard, Ben Francisco and Raul Ibanez back-to-back-to-back.

Is Cliff Lee this year’s hard-luck pitcher?

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Is Jayson “Werth” Fans’ Praise or Derision?

To boo, or not to boo, that is the question

Whether ’tis nobler in the park to cheer

A player who left for such outrageous fortune

Or to vent lungs against a former hero

To boo, or perchance to applaud—ay, there’s the rub

When Jayson Werth steps into the batter’s box this evening—in his first appearance at Citizens Bank Park in a Washington Nationals uniform—what will the reaction be?

Will there be rousing cheers for a former fan favorite (if one of many here) who contributed greatly to the success of the 2007-10 Philadelphia Phillies?

Will Philly fans boo a player who left for huge money ($126 million over seven years) offered by a division rival?

Will the South Philly faithful have a dilemma of Shakespearean proportions (Hamlet, to be exact) and end up sitting on their hands while ruminating over it?

Not knowing what to do, will fans play it safe and break into another chorus of U-S-A, U-S-A?

Taking off my journalist’s hat for a moment—and this is at least a form of journalism, right?—I am now wearing my red cap with the oversized P while pondering what I would do at the ballpark as a longtime Philly fan. 

Do I cheer a fine player who enabled my team to make the postseason in each of his four years in red pinstripes? Of course—those four years included two World Series appearances and one championship. 

Do I do my part to preserve this town’s fine tradition of venting displeasure by booing a player who left my team to grab more money elsewhere?

 

THE CASE FOR BOOING JAYSON WERTH

I’ve been known to occasionally jeer an opponent or two, but I don’t consider myself a major boo-bird. There are players that do arouse such primal compulsions; is JW is one of them?

Let me re-frame the question:

Do fans boo a guy who left for a bigger paycheck, as many of us would have done in similar circumstances?

Simply put, Jayson Werth had every right to take the bigger payday, and fans have every right to boo him for not choosing team loyalty over his own financial aspirations.

It would be easy to say that I would have taken less cash to play for a rabid fanbase and with a team considered to be the National League front runners again. It would also be easy to say that I would have taken the most money. I may have done either.

Of course, Werth went with the cash, and one of the consequences of doing so is (potentially) being subject to a chorus of boos from fans who used to cheer his every move. That is fair, in a sense.

While the bearded right fielder was certainly a popular player here, he was never the most warm-and-fuzzy guy with the media or the fans. Well, his face may have looked warm and fuzzy, but…

Some may recall his allegedly throwing an F-bomb at a fan (who was in the stands with his young son) who did not move out of Werth’s way when he reached into the stands for a foul ball. It certainly was not a Hallmark moment—and one wonders what Jayson might have spewed to the fan if he truly pulled a Steve Bartman—but should there still be any negative carryover from one moment of boorishness?

As a Phillie, Werth never went out of his way to endear himself to the fans, and perhaps that was a part of his rakish charm. He seemed to be even surlier last year with the added pressure of playing for a huge payday (somewhere).

One wished he had given the fans and media more than he did, but it is also hard to find fault with how hard or how well he played.

Since leaving town, he has not lobbed any explosive grenades or flowery bouquets at the team or its fans. Hmmm…

 

THE CASE FOR CHEERING JAYSON WERTH

Let us get the negatives out of the way.

In 2010, Werth struggled mightily batting with runners in scoring position (RISP). He hit just .186 and plummeted to an unsightly .139 with RISP and two outs.

Despite those struggles, he was still able to bat .296 (second on the team) with 27 homers (second), 85 RBI (second) and 106 runs (tied for fourth in the NL).

At his best, Werth gave Philly fans most of the elements of a five-tool player who could do everything well. Indeed, he was probably the best pure jock on the team, if not quite as productive as Ryan Howard or Chase Utley.

Werth never became an everyday player until his age-29 season in 2008, which culminated in a major parade on Broad Street.

It would be a distortion to say that he was the major reason for the championship; it would also be an understatement to say that he was a minor contributor.

Only Werth can say whether he would have been happier staying in Philly for big money or playing in the nation’s capital for enormous coin. Perhaps even he is not sure if he made the right choice.

It would be nice to see Jayson find a way to literally or figuratively tip his cap to the Philly fans who supported him during the four best years (by far) of his baseball career. They, and the franchise, enabled him to have a choice between playing for the best team (on paper) or the most money.

Werth made his choice, and Philly fans can make theirs tonight.

To boo, or not to boo—that is the question.

 

GOLD NOTES

Cole Hamels is scheduled to face Werth (who will man the No. 3 hole with the absence of franchise third baseman Ryan Zimmerman) and the pesky Nats this evening.

Since April 2, 2008, Hamels is 5-0 with a 3.04 ERA in eight starts versus the division rival.

Opposing Hamels is the ageless, 36-year-old veteran Livan Hernandez (3-2, 3.23), who seems to be in his forties.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Phillies: Roy Halladay and the Top 7 Phillies of the Month, Who’s No. 1?

Before revealing my first Top Phillie of the Month Award—can you bear the suspense?—let’s take a look at how the month of April played out for the Philadelphia Phillies.

To put it another way, one has to wonder if other teams will copy the Phillies’ recipe for success, which included these ingredients:

No contribution, due to injuries, from their best all-around player (Chase Utley), their No. 1 closer (Brad Lidge) and their top prospect (Domonic Brown).

Early season trips to the Disabled List for starting pitcher Joe Blanton, and relievers Jose Contreras and J. C. Romero.

A lusty .161 batting average from their starting left fielder, Raul Ibanez, a player who hit .275 with 83 RBI last season.

Five, count ‘em, five RBI from their new No. 3 hitter, Jimmy Rollins.

A 14-game stretch in which the Phillies scored a total of 39 runs, never exceeding four in any contest.

If you think that this sounds more like a prescription for disaster than a recipe for success, you would be correct. But the recipe must be a tasty one, as the Phillies (18-8) hold the best record in the National League and are tied with the most surprising Cleveland Indians for the best mark in the bigs.

Skipper Charlie Manuel must be doing something right.

April ended the same way it started, at Citizens Bank Park with Ace of Aces Roy Halladay on the hill pitching terrific ball. The 2-1 win over the Mets, among other things, featured another key hit from John Mayberry, Jr, who started the month with a walk-off hit.

Enough for the team recap. Let’s get to my inaugural Top Phillie of the Month Award, a most prestigious honor that is accompanied with no promise of cash or prizes to be donated by a wealthy benefactor. It’s all about the honor, anyway, as these seven Phillies—in ascending order of merit—would likely agree.

Please Note: I did not wish to rank more than seven Phillies players, but I did cagily sneak in an extra couple. I still apologize to Shane Victorino (.290, four homers, 12 RBI, 19 runs and three SB) for just missing out. The Flyin’ Hawaiian may find solace in winning the second-ever Top Phillie of the Week two weeks ago.

 

7) Cliff Lee

 The Ace of Hearts only sports a 2-2 record with a 4.18 ERA, but he has pitched better than those middling numbers would indicate. In 32.1 innings, Cliff has fanned 39 batters against only four walks, contributing to his excellent WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched) of 1.05.

Lee has pitched quite well in three of his five starts (Phils are 3-2) and threw the best game of the season: a 4-0 (complete game) three-hit shutout at Washington. Amazingly, he struck out 12 batters and only walked one, while only throwing 99 pitches.

 

6) Roy Oswalt

 The Ace of Clubs (3-1, 3.33) was putting up remarkable numbers (3-0, 1.88) prior to his April 25 start against Arizona. It would be understandable if he came to the round preoccupied with the horrible tornadoes that have devastated areas surrounding his Mississippi home. Sometimes life intervenes, and all of Phillies Nation wishes Roy, his family and community the best.

Back to the mound. In 27 innings, Little Roy has yielded only 21 hits and seven walks (a 1.04 WHIP) while striking out 21. The Phillies are 3-2 in games he has started.

 

5) Antonio Bastardo, Jose Contreras and Ryan Madson

 Despite all the well-placed preseason concern, the back-end of the bullpen has really gotten it done in April, earning eight saves in as many opportunities with a very low collective ERA.

Bastardo may be the most impressive, striking out 16 batters and walking four in 10.1 quality innings. He is 1-0 with an 0.87 ERA and a microscopic 0.77 WHIP. Oh yes, he earned one save in as many pitches.

Contreras made good on all five of his save chances, before hitting the DL after his April 21 appearance. In eight innings, he has yielded four hits and four walks (a 1.00 WHIP) while fanning nine. His ERA sits, with him, at 0.00.

Madson leaves April with a 2-0 record, an 0.90 ERA and two saves in as many chances. The lanky, 6’6” righty has given up seven hits and three walks (a 1.00 WHIP) while striking out 12. And he usually pitches even better late in the season.

 

4) Cole Hamels

 The Ace of Diamonds has sparkled brilliantly after a highly flawed season debut at home versus the Mets.

Even with that one bad outing, Hamels is 3-1 with a 3.15 ERA and a WHIP of 1.11. Cole has fanned 34, walked nine and yielded 26 hits in 31.2 innings. The team is 4-1 on his starts.

 

3) Ryan Howard

 The Big Piece enters May leading the NL with 27 RBI in 26 games and a very strong .290/.361/.560 slash, with six home runs.

Will you bet against him topping 40 homers and 125 RBI against this year? I should add that he has played very strong defense thus far, including Saturday’s wonderful game-ending dive-and-backhand flip to…

 

2) Roy Halladay

 The Ace of Spades threw another complete game yesterday, his second of the month, raising his record to 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA.

Doc has dominated in five of his six starts (the Phillies won his only no-decision) and has let up only 39 hits and seven walks (good for a 1.02 WHIP) in 46.1 innings of yeoman work. Forty-seven would-be hitters have walked back dejectedly to the dugout after swinging or looking at strike three versus Halladay.

The defending, unanimous Cy Young Award winner should have cruised to the Top Phillie of the Month Award, but for…

 

1) Placido Polanco

 Does it seem like a couple years ago when there was lots of concern over Polly’s (hyper-extended) elbow?

The deluxe No. 2 hitter is batting a white-hot .398 (third in the NL) with two homers, 19 RBI and 18 runs. Polanco has even stolen three bases in as many attempts.

Polly leaves April with an amazing 41 hits, and he has had very few poor at-bats this young season. He had the game-winning RBI yesterday on a sacrifice fly to right.

One has to have had an amazing month to beat out Roy Halladay for the TPM award, and Placido Polanco made it almost impossible for me to pick against him.

 

Gold Notes

One runs out of superlatives to praise Roy Halladay, so we’ll just let this stat speak for itself.

Doc opened the game with 18 straight strikes (the first pitcher to do so in 20 years, per STATS, LLC); on the day, 80 of his 107 pitches were strikes.

Although he was already hovering around the 100-pitch plateau, did anybody expect Manuel to pull him when he started the top of the ninth with a walk to David Wright and two balls to Carlos Beltran?

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Offense Putting Up Great Numbers (for a Round of Golf)

The game of baseball produces numbers that beget more numbers that are enough to keep any stat-head (sabermetrician or otherwise) in numerical heaven.

Yours truly is not a sabermetrician, per se, but I enjoy the occasional number crunch inspired by my hometown Philadelphia Phillies.

And yes, the early days of the 2011 season have already inspired some good, old-old fashioned number crunching. So crunch these and try to make sense of them.

The Phillies are tied with the Colorado Rockies for the best record in Major League Baseball at 15-7—good for a terrific .682 percentage.

Last night’s 4-0 defeat at the hands of the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks marked the 14th straight game in which the Phillies offense exploded for four runs or fewer.

So how does one square these two sets of numbers? Easily—kind of. They’ve had timely hitting, excellent pitching and had a break or two go their way.

Let’s take a look at those last 14 games from a run-producing (and results) standpoint:

1. April 10: three runs (3-0 win)
2. April 12: four runs (7-4 loss)
3. April 13: three runs (3-2 win)
4. April 14: four runs (4-0 win)
5. April 15: three runs (4-3 loss)
6. April 17: three runs (3-2 win)
7. April 18: three runs (6-3 loss)
8. April 19: zero runs (9-0 loss)
9. April 20: four runs (4-3 win)
10. April 21: three runs (3-0 win)
11. April 22: two runs (2-0 win)
12. April 23: four runs (4-2 win)
13. April 24: three runs (3-1 win)
14. April 25: zero runs (4-0 loss)

A couple quick observations come to mind.

If you strip away the dates and results, the Phillies have a pretty terrific round of golf going. A 39 after 14 holes to be exact, which is about 17 under par. Of course, a Major League Baseball offense is trying to shoot above par—and they’ve already survived Amen Corner, to use Masters parlance.

The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Gelb reported today that the streak of 14 games without once scoring five or more runs is tied for their second longest since 1968. When it last occurred (1984), the Phillies only managed to win one of those games.

Of course, the excellent starting pitching has been enough to produce nine wins (and a remarkable four shutouts) during this power outage. So fans and pundits can think of this in one of two ways.

The Phillies’ R2C2/Four Aces/Mound Rushmore—with occasional Blanton-ian assistance—is so great that they can still play .682 ball with a subpar offense. Let’s call this the bases-are-full approach.

The Phillies have to make a major change, and soon. Did I mention that Jimmy Rollins is on the decline, Raul Ibanez is done and three members of our bullpen are injured? Let’s call this the bases-are-empty approach.

Both approaches are equally valid, I suppose. Or they are both flawed. That analysis depends on one’s philosophy.

But leaving philosophy and semantics aside, let’s try to revisit some very basic numbers from the last two-plus seasons.

The numbers will validate that the Phillies have transitioned from a team that clubbed you to death with occasional clutch pitching to a club that outpitches you with an assist from its offense.

In 2009, the Phillies only hit .258 (tied for ninth in the NL), but they bombed 224 homers (about 1.39 per game) and led the league with 820 runs (5.06 per game).

The Phillies’ pitching was sixth in the NL with a 4.16 ERA. If one recalls, by season’s end, the staff was led by Cliff Lee, with occasional strong support from J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton and occasionally Pedro Martinez. Cole Hamels had his one off year that season.

Last year, the Phillies hit for a slightly higher percentage (.260) but with less pop (166 homers, or roughly one per game). They were still second in the league with 772 runs scored but no longer averaged five runs per game (4.77).

By season’s end, the Phillies had a great starting threesome (H2O) of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Hamels, who led the team to a fifth-best ERA of 3.67.

After 22 games, this year’s edition is hitting .255 (eighth out of 16 teams) with a total of 95 runs (ninth-best), good for 4.3 per game. They occasionally go deep (or inside-the-park): 16 times so far for an average of .73 per game.

On the bright side, the team ERA is a low 3.06, just behind the league-leading San Diego Padres (who make the Phillies’ offense look like the 1927 Yankees) and the Florida Marlins.

 

So, Now What?

Many fans and pundits projected this to be a pitching-first squad that may not hit much, but it’s a little different saying it than seeing it in action at its worst.

It seems prudent for the Phillies to sit tight trade-wise. When all is said and done, it’s hard to know whether they may need to trade for more offense or for bullpen help (with Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero and Jose Contreras all out).

Per the bullpen, it will be exciting to see how young Mike Stutes will perform (his first inning looked good) and if Antonio Bastardo can continue to pitch lights-out with good control, or close to it.

Ryan Madson, always great in the eighth—if not in the ninth—will have another audition as the team’s closer.

As for the offense, short of praying for Chase Utley’s return and eventual help from Domonic Brown, it’s hard to know exactly what to do,

Placido Polanco has been the team’s best hitter this year, but I would hesitate to remove him from the No. 2 hole that he fills so professionally. But what about Utley’s No. 3 spot, which Jimmy Rollins has not replaced adequately?

I would send Rollins down in the order (sixth) and play Ibanez  (he had a very solid second half last year, and I’m not ready to give up on him yet) as part of a platoon. Play Ibanez in the No. 3 hole against righties only, and give John Mayberry a shot there against lefties.

What does the team have to lose? If one of them heats it up and/or the other stinks it up over time, the Phillies can feature one or the other.

In Jayson Werth’s old No. 5 hole, Ben Francisco has not been producing since the first week of the season, but I’m not ready to give up on him in that role. One can always flip-flop him and Rollins (and don’t even think about removing Jimmy’s glove from the team).

At second base, in addition to pining away for Chase, it would make sense to platoon Wilson Valdez and Pete Orr. I love Valdez’s glove and how he was the unsung hero of 2010, but it would be nice to occasionally see a second baseman hit one to the outfield. Give Orr a shot. Is his defense that inferior?

Since Carlos Ruiz was arguably the best No. 8 hitter in baseball last year, keep him there and let Valdez/Orr try to get something going from the seven-hole.

The worst thing the Phillies could do right now is to panic, but some shake-up of the lineup is in order.

Amazingly, the NL favorites are 15-7 and in first place. Even though most of their batters seem to be playing golf, the sky is not yet falling.

 

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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MLB Projections: What If the 2011 Season Plays out Like It Started?

The 2011 MLB regular season is nearing the conclusion of its first month—what if the season unfolded just as it started?

Please permit me a not-so-insignificant disclaimer here. I realize that all teams have only played (roughly) 20 games, and that the full season is 162. I’ve known all the clichés for longer than I care to admit. It is a marathon, not a sprint.

On the other hand, a game in April is worth the same as in October, right?

When it comes to player stats, one has to think that Hanley Ramirez (.182 / .299/ .247), the Florida Marlins‘ best player, will start to heat up, even if his team can’t keep up their pace. Carl Crawford can’t continue to be the highest paid player to ever hit .171 / .218 / .244, can he?  Can Vernon Wells (.169/ .213/ .258) have declined to this degree?

Even if MLB teams have only played the equivalent of two NFL games (which, come to think of it, may be more than NFL teams will play this year), let’s do a little math and see what the numbers project to for the full marathon.

 

AL East

The New York Yankees (12-6), led by the slugging exploits of Curtis Granderson (63 home runs…Roger Who?), will cruise to the division title with a record of 108-54. They will do this, despite their ace CC Sabathia winning only eight games and all-world closer Mariano Rivera blowing 16 saves.

 

AL Central

The Cleveland Indians (13-8) take the division with 100 wins. If their best player of the last few years, Chin-Soo Choo (batting .207) gets going, look out.

 

AL West

Those Texas Rangers (14-7) cruise to the title with 108 wins. Cliff Who?

 

AL Wild Card

Kansas City, Detroit and LA (led of course by Vernon Wells, er, Jered Weaver) will finish with 88 wins apiece. Maybe Bud Selig will let them all in, or use All-Star Game stats to determine the finish.

 

NL East

The Philadelphia Phillies (15-6), to nobody’s surprise, will out-pitch those pesky Marlins on the way to 116 wins. They will do so without their best all-around player, Chase Utley, seeing any action. They may also do so scoring only three runs per game.

 

NL Central

The St. Louis Cardinals will win a tight division with 88 victories—Adam Wainwright will miss the whole year, Chris Carpenter may never win a game and Albert Pujols may only hit .250 (albeit with 52 homers), but they’ll find a way. Hey, the modest Tony LaRussa would be the first to tell you that he’s a genius.

 

NL West

Those Colorado Rockies (14-7) will also notch 108 wins. 23 year-old righty Jhoulys Chacin will go 24-8 with a 2.67 ERA to join Tulo and Car-go as a household name (baseball-wise) from the mountain state.

 

NL Wild Card

The Florida Marlins, behind the superb Josh Johnson (19-0, 1.06 ERA and a WHIP of 0.65), will earn a spot with a 105-57 record. (With Johnson’s nasty stuff, he may approximate those stats, if healthy.)

 

A Disclaimer?

If you were expecting postseason projections, you have come to the wrong place. Sorry.

But for what it’s worth, who said that the .400 hitter is dead?

In the NL alone, there are two guys named Matt who will hit .400 this year—the Dodgers‘ Kemp will bat .402, and the Cardinals’ Holliday will hit .400 even.

In the coming days, this Matt will take a look at some individual’s projections. If he does not fall into a slump.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, as well as writing, speaking and interview requests, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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