MLB Preview: Just How Important Is It To Finish With the Best Record?

MLB Countdown: 17 Days Until Pitchers and Catchers Report

If you live in the Northeast corridor, this may very well mean that there are still 17 more shoveling days until Spring Training, but at least there’s some end in sight to this misery.

I was pondering the following question: What is the correlation between earning the best record in your league (and in MLB) and: a) getting to the World Series and b) winning it all?

Hopefully, this question has some relevance to me and my fellow Phillies fans, as expectations for the 2011 season are gloriously high. With the most highly-touted starting rotation seen in quite some time—at least their potentially untouchable front four of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt have drawn comparisons with the best in MLB history—the projections for regular season wins have been astronomical.

While it’s hard to measure something so intangible, it’s also hard to remember any offseason generating buzz comparable to that of the 2011 Phillies.

I was pondering the correlation between regular season wins and World Championships as I went outside to attack the avalanche that covered my driveway and buried both of the family cars. And yes, my two-and-a-half year old boy enjoyed playing in the snow with Mommy as I did battle with the elements, but I would rather be inside working.

Question No. 1: At what age does snow become more of a pain-in-the-tush than a pleasure?

The answer is largely rhetorical. I still find a fresh snowfall beautiful to regard, but I have shoveled more white crap in the last one-and-a-half seasons than in the previous 15 combined. Unless I view it from the perspective of my inner child or my actual child,  I have clearly had enough of it.

Question No. 2: Just when will we get the good side of the greenhouse effect and global warming?

These last two winters have been brutal.

While my wife and little one were building a snowman, I waged war with an old-fashioned, heavy, inefficient shovel and a broom that had seen better years. Shoveling with such anachronisms was the winter equivalent of stepping up to the plate in my slow pitch softball league with a wooden bat. Or maybe a wiffle ball bat.

With each heavy load, I pretended that I was swinging the bat as one of the Phillies— perhaps Ryan Howard versus Brain Wilson in the bottom of the ninth in Game 6…nah, too late for that. I did get hundreds of swings in, and absent any trips to the batting cages, shoveling will probably be my best and only offseason workout.

So what of the real question at hand? Among playoff teams, does finishing with the best record in the league mean anything?

Returning from the cold, I examined the last 16 World Series winners and league champs (starting in 1995 with the expanded playoff format) and found the following to be true:

The team with the best record (or tied for the best) in MLB only won the World Series three times: The Yankees did it in 1998 and 2009, and the Red Sox did so in 2007.

The team with the best record in baseball only made it to the Fall Classic four other times. This group is comprised of: the Indians in 1995, the Braves in 1999, the Yankees in 2003 and the Cardinals in 2004.

Out of 16 seasons with the expanded format, having the best record in baseball during the regular season only got teams to the World Series seven times, and only resulted in a championship three times. To me, that’s a surprisingly low number.

How about teams that had the best record in their league (I will call them the No. 1 Seeds), regardless of how they compared to their counterparts in the other league? The No. 1 Seed in the AL advanced to the Series seven times (winning the three that I cited); the NL’s No. 1 seed advanced to the Fall Classic only three times, winning just once.

A sobering thought: The last No. 1 seed in the NL to make it to the World Series was the Cardinals in 2004. The Redbirds took their MLB-best 105-57 record to the show versus the 98-64 Red Sox (the AL wild card team) and proceeded to get swept.

Just two years later, the Cardinals returned to the show with a mediocre 83-78 (they won their division with only the fifth best record in their league) mark, but defeated the 95-67 Tigers (a wild card team with the third best record in the AL) in five games.

How have wild card teams fared in the last 16 postseasons? Three AL wild cards advanced to the World Series, with two of them taking it all—the 2002 Angels and the 2004 Red Sox.

The National League has been even more wild and crazy. Six wild cards have made it to the World Series, winning it all twice: the Marlins in both 1997 and 2003.

By my calculation, that means that in the last 16 seasons, Wild card teams have won as many world championships (four apiece) as No. 1 seeds. Together, they have won half of the 16 titles, with the other half going to the remaining two division winners.

Amazingly enough, since MLB has expanded the playoffs, there is more or less an even probability of any of the playoff teams winning it all.

Perhaps your head is spinning from all of the data crunching, to say nothing of the snow if it has hit your area as well. So what is the lesson learned for this Phillies columnist and unabashed fan?

I would love to see the Phillies’ four-headed monster (or R2C2, if you prefer) rack up a ton of victories and lead the Phillies to the best record in baseball, compiling 100-plus wins in the process.

It would be wonderful, but as for title hopes, it appears that it is only important to get into the playoffs. Once there, anything can happen—with much of it defying expectations.

I’m not sure why having home cooking, boisterous fans, “last licks” in more games and a better regular season record has not seemed to mean much of anything once the postseason starts.

Despite these very surprising trends, the Phillies fan in me still wants my team to have the best overall record in baseball this year. Thanks to the recent provision that the league winning the All-Star Game gets home field advantage in the World Series, this achievement is mostly for pride.

If the Phillies do amass the best record in baseball, and win the World Series, they will be the first NL team to do so since the Atlanta Braves finally won it all in the strike-shortened season of 1995.

It’s not too much to ask for 2011, is it?

And just one more request, okay?

No more freakin’ snow beyond Feb. 13.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com 

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MLB Predictions: Picking Cliff Lee and the 2011 NL East Preseason All-Stars

When the Phillies, to the surprise of many, re-acquired Cliff Lee last December, many pundits conceded the NL East (and beyond) to Philadelphia.

But where would Cliff Lee rank on an all-NL East team?

Which other pitchers would join him in the five-man rotation, and indeed, who would be flashing him signals from behind the dish?

Brain McCann of the Braves, his own catcher, Carlos Ruiz, or the future surefire Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez of the Nationals?

My goal for this presentation was to pick the mythical All-NL East team. Unlike the real All-Star Game, I view this as more of a seven game series, with this squad battling stars from the other divisions.

Call it east coast bias, but I’d probably give the Al East and the NL East byes if there were to be an actual clash of the six division all-star teams. One could also make a case for the NL West getting a bye, but let’s leave that discussion for another time.

So, here we go starting with our catcher.

Let the games and the debates begin!

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies: Just 29 Days Till Pitchers and Catchers Report

Don’t despair Phillies fans. What has all of the makings of a long, frigid, snowy winter will soon be interrupted with this announcement: “Pitchers and catchers report today!”

Okay, Phillies’ pitchers and catchers don’t report to Clearwater, Florida, until February 13, which is still 29 days away. But consider this: It has now been 83 long, cold, unforgiving days since Ryan Howard infamously struck out looking against Brian Wilson to end the National League Championship Series, and with it the hopes of another world championship.

Phillies fans have now weathered almost 75 percent of their annual baseball vigil, and what a season this promises to be.

This past fall got a little darker when Jayson Werth defected to D.C. for oodles of cash, and then got immeasurably brighter when Cliff Lee returned to the fold.

Although hot stoves have been firing—mostly with optimism—in anticipation of an amazing 2011 season, there are days and evenings when such heat cannot mitigate the realities of winter in the Northeast. There have already been a few cruel days when the number of inches of snow was greater than the number of degrees in the wind chill reading.

The late A Bartlett (Bart) Giammati, once commissioner of Major League Baseball, and former president of Yale University, probably best captured the eternal promise and heartbreak of baseball when writing the following for his Yale Alumni Magazine.

“It [baseball] breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone.”

To paraphrase Giammati, the heartbreak is almost over, and presumably there are less than 30 shoveling days till baseball.

Others may prefer Groundhog Day as their personal harbinger of spring, and they long to see what those little rodents (the most famous one being Punxsutawney Phil) will do when the bright lights descend upon their winter burrows on February 2 each year.

“Groundhog Day,” of course, was also the title of a 1993 comedy starring incurable Cubs fan Bill Murray. Ever since that movie, Groundhog Day has entered our pop-cultural lexicon as the epitome of doing the same thing over and over and over and over again.

It was not that long ago that the Philadelphia Phillies staged their annual version of Groundhog Day each season from the end of 1993 until the watershed 2007 season. After the strike of 1994, the Phillies—whether or not they used the same formula each year—never qualified for the postseason. At the same time, the Atlanta Braves were winning the pennant, if not the World Series, every year.

A little known fact is that on every February 2 between 1994 and 2006, a suburban woodchuck named Paunchatiny Phillie would emerge from his burrow just long enough to read that season’s baseball forecast. Once he read the prognostications, he would crawl back into his hole after proclaiming that six long months of baseball were in the offing for Phillies fans.

Indeed, was the heartbreak of the offseason that much worse than the disappointment of the actual baseball played by the Phillies during those drought years? I would still contend that a bad day at the ballpark still beats a day without baseball, but those Phillies squads, run by the likes of John Felske and Lee Elia, were no match for skipper Charlie Manuel’s men.

Indeed, Phillies fans should appreciate the rarified near-dynasty (by modern standards anyway) of the new type of Groundhog Day that has unfolded the last four year and counting:

2007: 89 wins, NL East Champions

2008: 92 wins, World Champions of Baseball (in the words of the immortal Harry Kalas)

2009: 93 wins: NL Champs, runner-up to Yanks

2010: 97 wins; best record in baseball, lost in NLCS

2011: ?

 

Many Phillies fans and non-partisan baseball pundits alike accept as a foregone conclusion that the team in red pinstripes will return to the postseason in 2011, and barring crippling injuries, will be the favorite to return to the World Series.

Such projections make the chilly temperatures, icy roads (and perhaps, even an Eagles playoff loss) a little easier to take. The chatter from the hot stove has a certain warmth, even as we pose some of the following questions:

• Who is the fifth starter?
• What about our corner outfielders?
• Will Jimmy Rollins be, well, Jimmy Rolllins again?
• What about the bullpen?

The suspicion is that with the four-headed R2C2 monster of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt leading us, the Phillies will sprint to the division title, even if these questions aren’t answered definitively.

There will be time to examine these developments and more, and this columnist will try to do his part to add to the conversation. But for now, I am encouraged that in only four weeks, I can say “Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow.”

That five-word sentence—especially when “tomorrow” truly means only 24 hours away—is one of my favorite sentences in the English language.

It is a declaration so life-affirming that it must be warming the hearts of all true baseball fans. One suspects that even the late A Bartlett Giamatti (to say nothing of Paunchatiny Phillie) is starting to crack a warm smile.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Phillies Reportedly Sign Cliff Lee: Happi-Lee, Remarkab-Lee, Shocking-Lee

Sports Irreverence and More from The Other Tip of the Goldberg

This will teach me to go to bed early and avoid the news from 9:00 PM on.

Hey, I was spending some quality time with my two year-old son. We can joyously read and play together until midnight, and my boy will still want more Q-time from my wife and me.

But that’s a whole other story; back to the task at hand. Besides, as much as I love him and there’s no close runner-up there, I can only read and play-act The Three Little Pigs and The Big, Bad Wolf so many times.

On the way back from an evening meeting, I heard one of the local (Philly) sports talk radio hosts conjecture that the Phillies might be in the running for Cliff Lee, who pitched so memorably in his very short tenure with Philadelphia in 2009.

But of course, they were just trying to make Phillies Nation feel better after letting Jayson Werth go to the Nationals.

Surely, this was just idle chatter, or was it? No! There is some fire behind this smoke, and the Phillies and GM Ruben Amaro are on fire.

In case you have not heard the news, it has been reported from multiple sources that coveted free agent left-handed pitcher Cliff Lee has signed with the Phillies for five years, with a vesting option for a sixth year.

According to MLB.com, the five-year deal is in the $120 million range.

There has been talk that Lee left some money on the table in spurning longer-term offers with the Yankees and possibly the Rangers, who had him for a few months.

But let’s not laud Lee like he’s giving up huge money to work anonymously in the slums of Calcutta.

Three things here:

He is getting $24 million per year until age 37; so what if he turned down a sixth year for another $18 million or so.

When I leave money on the table, it’s a ratty one-dollar bill  and a couple quarters from my pocket.

I’m not bashing Lee at all; truth be told, I’m a lifelong Phillies fan who was in mourning when “we” let him go last year on the same day that we signed Roy “Doc” Halladay (who incidentally may be the best starting pitcher in the sport).

So, I am receiving this news happi-Lee, ecstatic-Lee, shocking-Lee…but enough of the Lee rejoinders and onto something more important.

 

THE GREAT ROTATION

In the coming days and weeks (and even now, if not in this very space), there will be a ton of analysis about what this deal means for:

• The Phillies – I guess they are the prohibitive favorites to get to, and win, the Fall Classic next year.
• Ruben Amaro – Can anyone question him now, as he has now signed Lee, Halladay, Oswalt and Lee again in less than two year’s time.
• Philadelphia – Is this convincing proof that big-time athletes do want to play here, and we’re a second class city (perception-wise) no more?
• Joe Blanton – Frankly, who cares?
• The Yankees – I guess that they don’t always get what/who they want.
• The rest of baseball – The Phillies won’t be viewed like the 2010-11 Miami Heat, unless Lee says that “I’m taking my talents to South Philly.” But yes, the rest of baseball’s true contenders must be sweating about how they can try to match up with Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels.
• Cole Hamels -“Wait, I’m now the No. 4 starter?”

R2-C2:

Just a few months ago, I proposed the nickname H20 for the Phillies amazing three-headed monster of Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt. 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/459880-roy-squared-and-cole-and-who-takes-the-ball-pondering-the-phillies-rotation

I swear on my beloved two year-old’s future that I had never seen or heard that nickname before my column-produced brainstorm, and I’m okay with “H2O” going viral and lots of t-shirts being sold without a nod to my little column on Bleacher Report, or royalties to my son’s college fund.

Well, I’m kind of okay with that, so here goes, and tell me if you heard it here first:

We now need a new nickname for (on paper) the most potent four-man rotation in modern baseball history. They are a rotation of all-world and even inter-galactic proportions and even though I am not a major sci-fi-guy, I am a nickname-meister of sorts.

So, of course, we now have two Roys (or two R’s) and a Cliff and a Cole (or two C’s). The Phillies have now upgraded the powerful H20 to an other-worldly…

                                                      R2-C2

It’s crisp, it’s clean, it’s powerful and let the rest of the baseball world and civilization as we know it deal with it. 

All I know is that Cliff Lee is back in Philly.

Well, I’ll know it when I see the press conference. 

That’ll teach me to stop watching the news at 9 PM.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com.

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Roy Halladay Celebration: Doc Is Unanimous NL Cy Young Award Winner

The man they call Doc Halladay had a mighty impressive first season in the National League, and the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) certainly took notice.

Roy Halladay, the ace of aces for the Philadelphia Phillies, won the National League Cy Young Award unanimously, taking home all 32 first place votes. He easily outdistanced Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals and the Colorado Rockies’ Ubaldo Jimenez— who seemed like a lock to win it when he arrived at the All-Star Game with a 15-1 record.

Tim Hudson, of the Atlanta Braves, and the Florida Marlins’ Josh Johnson (the NL’s ERA leader) rounded out the top five.

Halladay made his first NL campaign a most memorable one, as he led the senior circuit in wins (with a 21-10 record), complete games (nine), shutouts (four) and innings pitched (250.2). He anchored a terrific starting rotation that led the Phillies to the best record in all of baseball during the regular season.

The Phillies’ ace was both spectacular and steady. His most spectacular outing, of course, was his May 29 perfect game at Florida, in a game where the Phillies could only manage one unearned run against Josh Johnson.

Other highlights included Halladay’s 4-0 record with an 0.82 ERA and two complete games in his first four starts of the season, and his last regular season start of the season which may have clinched the “Cy.”  Pitching in Washington against the pesky Nationals, he hurled a two-hit shutout without yielding a single walk.

His spectacular performances in 2010 included his first-ever postseason action, even if the postseason does not figure into the balloting. Facing a potent Cincinnati Reds lineup in Game 1 of the NLDS, all Doc did was throw the second no-hitter in MLB postseason history. He was one walk away from a perfecto.

Doc also kept the season alive by winning Game 5 of the NLCS versus Tim Lincecum and the eventual world champion San Francisco Giants. That he did so pitching on one good leg only added to his legend.

Halladay was steady as well as spectacular. In his 33 starts, he failed to pitch at least seven innings only four times. His shortest outing was 5.2 innings in an 8-3 loss to the Boston Red Sox. His next outing:  the perfecto versus the Marlins.

The 6’6” future Hall of Famer, one of the most obscure superstars in the game entering the 2010 season, posted spectacular stats, and continued to do so in a way that furthered his reputation as the ultimate competitor, a workout fiend, and a terrific teammate.

The 33 year-old, still looking to add a World Series title to his trophy case that now boasts two Cy Young Awards (his first was achieved in 2003 while pitching in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform) would appear to have a few prime seasons left and it would surprise nobody in baseball if he authors another Cy-worthy campaign in 2011.

Every now and then, the baseball writers get it right, even if Halladay made it eminently easy for them to do the right thing.

 

GOLD NOTES:

Halladay is just the fourth Phils pitcher to be honored with this award, along with Steve Bedrosian (1987), John Denny (1983) and Steve Carlton (a four-time winner in 1972, 1977, 1980 and 1982).

Doc is now the fifth pitcher in MLB history to win a Cy in both leagues, joining Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson and Gaylord Perry.

Halladay went seven years between Cys, tying the Braves’ Tom Glavine for the longest gap between awards.

New teammate Roy Oswalt finished sixth in the balloting.

 

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

World Series 2010: Cliff Lee and the Trade That Just Won’t Go Away

After his red-pinstriped heroics of last season, Phillies fans were hoping that Clifton Phifer (Cliff) Lee would be back pitching Game 1 in the 2010 World Series.  After all, didn’t the new Phillies pitcher dazzle the baseball world—and endear himself to Phillies Nation—with his performance in Yankees Stadium in last year’s Fall Classic?

Well, we got our wish.  Sort of.

In case you may have forgotten, here are the “Cliff Notes” for the 2009 World Series.   

Game 1 opened at Yankee Stadium, and our new ace pitched a complete game in our 6-1 win (the one run being unearned in the ninth).  He scattered six hits, struck out 10 and walked nobody.  But it was the way he did it that truly impressed.

Do you remember him catching pop outs as if he were playing wiffle ball at a backyard barbecue?  Lee was the coolest guy on the field, seemingly impervious to pressure and oblivious to the fact that he was ho-humming his way to a historic victory against the most storied team in sports before their intimidating fans.

Lee went on to win Game 5 at home (well, it was home then) and score the 2009 World Series: Yankees 4, Lee 2.

For the 2009 postseason as a whole, Lee’s record was 4-0 in five starts (all wins), 40.1 IP, 33 strikeouts and three walks with an ERA of 1.56. The only reason his ERA was that high was because he was charged with 5 (mostly garbage-time) earned runs in the 8-6 Game 5 win.

The Phils came just short in 2009 and many fans were feeling and craving a rematch in 2010. 

So what happened to prevent the rematch of the two teams considered to be the best teams in baseball?  Two words: Cliff Lee.  Okay, these may be Cliff Notes again, but consider this.

The Phillies did have great pitching in 2010, probably their best staff in recent history, but would you have liked your chances even more with a postseason rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Happ?  (More on this later.)

The Yankees—I guess Lola does not get everybody and everything Lola wants…forgive the musical reference—lost out to Texas in its attempt to acquire you-know-who at the trade deadline.  You may have seen that Lee dominated Tampa twice at (ugly) Tropicana Field, earning an ALCS showdown with the Yankees, who he made look like incompetent little leaguers in the pivotal Game 3 of the ALCS.

If it was humanly possible to do so, Lee has had an even better postseason this year than last and is now widely heralded as the best big game pitcher on the planet and one of the best—if not the best—of all-time.  All this after only two seasons on the biggest of stages.

And who could argue with these postseason numbers?

In eight starts, Lee is now 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA.  He has 67 strikeouts and seven walks in 64.1 innings pitched.  Oh yes, he has averaged eight (masterful) innings per postseason start.

 

SO…WHAT HAPPENED?

What happened on that winter morning when Phillies GM Ruben Amaro outdid himself and made it a blockbuster day.  None of us were privy to whatever negotiations took place between the Phillies and Lee, but we well know the result.

On the day that the Phillies acquired the great Roy Halladay—probably the best overall starting pitcher in the game—they also traded Cliff Lee to Seattle for a bunch of minor league suspects.

The dream 1-2 punch of Halladay and Lee (and who would be able to match that?) was dissolved before it even materialized.  It then transformed itself into “H20,” and if I butcher any more chemical equations, please stop me.

It is hard to beat up on Amaro, who has acquired Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt within a year’s time.  And anyone who even starts to complain about either Roy wasn’t really watching.

But, but, but…we are still left to question what really happened in those negotiations, and why could we not have had Halladay and Lee together for just one season, and then let 2011 and beyond take care of itself?

Would the law firm of Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Happ have gotten us by the Giants?  I, and many other Phillies fans, would say yes, even as I realize that Oswalt pitched great for us.  He just wasn’t October Cliff Lee-great, but who is?

 

CLIFFHANGER

It may be that Cody Ross and the Giants come out and shell Lee, and Lee could become human again or pitch like he did during some lackluster August outings with Texas when he was suffering through some back ailments.  I guess there are smarter things to do than to bet against Bruce Bochy, Tim Lincecum and those San Francisco misfits.

There are also few, if any, dumber things to do in life than to bet against Cliff Lee in a big game, and the baseball fan (and Cliff Lee fan) in me would love to see him add to his instant-legend status in the 2010 World Series.

In a surprisingly candid media session yesterday, Lee still seemed to be more than a little miffed, and very surprised, that he was traded by the Phillies.  When asked if he watched the Phillies-Giants NLCS, and what his emotions were, he replied:

“Kind of mixed emotions, to be honest with you. I pulled for a lot of those guys (Phillies players), but it’s weird, when a team gets rid of you, you kind of like seeing them lose a little bit.”

Lee has had only good things to say about his former Phillies teammates and about the fans, and indeed, hasn’t really taken any potshots at management.  Indeed, at the time of the trade, he praised them for picking up Halladay, who he referred to as the best pitcher in the game.

And one has to wonder about the mindset of a pitcher who won the AL Cy Young Award for a mediocre Cleveland team in 2008 and has now been traded three more times, despite one of the very best pitching resumes the last three years.  One senses that he will sign a long-term contract this offseason with either the Yankees, or maybe he’ll actually stay with the Rangers, if they can pony up enough cash.

As for Lee’s thoughts if he were to face Halladay and the Phillies, the best big game pitcher on the planet remarked, “I know that’s weird, but part of me wanted them to win where I could face them in the World Series, too. It would have been a lot of fun.”

Yes, it would have been a lot of fun for us to watch as well. And as much as I admire and respect Halladay, if Phils-Rangers had materialized, I would have rooted for the Phillies and for Cliff Lee.  Make that Phillies 4, Lee 2.

But we’ll never know what would have happened, and Phillies fans will have to settle for watching a World Series in which their team is not participating for the first time in three years.

It would have been nice to have been able to root for Cliff Lee as a Phillies ace, or co-ace, one more time on the biggest of stages.  But, as that wise philosopher Michael Phillip (Mick) Jagger once rocked, “You can’t always get what you want.”

What we do get is Cliff Lee in Game 1 of the Fall Classic trying to beat the team that beat his former team—our beloved Phillies.

And what we still have is the trade that—even after the brilliance of H20—just won’t evaporate.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

NLCS 2010: Juan Uribe, Bullpen Lead SF Giants to 3-2 Win Over Phils; Advance to Series

Juan Uribe‘s solo homer with two outs in the eighth inning and seven innings of shutout relief by their bullpen led the San Francisco Giants to a 3-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies, advancing the Cinderella team to the World Series.

The box score will reflect that Ryan Howard, the RBI machine of so many past big games, looked at a 3-2 offering by Giants closer Brian Wilson with two men on and two outs in the ninth to close the 2010 NLCS.  As Howard looked on in stunned disbelief, so did the sellout crowd, all of Phillies Nation and most of the baseball world.

The Giants were not supposed to be in the playoffs; they did not get the memo.

They certainly were not supposed to advance to the NLCS; they never got around to reading that memo.

Once in the NLCS, they were not supposed to take a 3-1 lead over the prohibitively favored Phillies; they chose to ignore that as well.

And when the Phillies forced a Game 6 and presumably a Game 7 in front of their raucous hometown fans, the Giants were supposed to roll over.  The “Left Coast” upstarts also disregarded that nugget of conventional wisdom.

When history reviews the 2010 NLCS, they may see the Bay Area bunch as one of destiny’s darlings.  Or, history may see the series as a case of the Phillies team being overconfident. 

Perhaps in hindsight, manager Bruce Bochy will get credit for leading a team of has-beens, retreads and  (supposedly) not quite ready-for-prime-time players (including a great young catcher in the making in Buster Posey) past a Phillies team that was well positioned to win it all.

Indeed Bochy, in the jubilant visitors’ clubhouse, was quoted as saying, “We had such a diversity of contributions from everybody. Not bad for a bunch of castoffs and misfits.”

One of those castoffs was shortstop/third baseman Juan Uribe, who compiled only a .214 batting average in the series but hit the walkoff sacrifice fly to win Game 4.  Uribe ambled to the plate in the top of the eight with two outs, facing Phils reliever Ryan Madson, who had been absolutely dominant in the postseason.

Uribe promptly took an outside pitch to the opposite field, driving it just over the right field fence.  The drive broke the 2-2 deadlock and stood up as the final margin of victory.

The Uribe homer would send a team featuring players such as Cody “Babe” Ross (awarded the NLCS MVP), and Brian Wilson, a reliever who dyes his beard black and makes quirky seem uptight, into the World Series to face the Yankees.  Actually, make that the Texas Rangers, who will be making their first appearance in the Fall Classic.  The Giants?  They’ll be trying to win their first title since 1954, when they played in the Polo Grounds of New York City.

There will be plenty of time to preview a World Series matchup that Fox-TV did not want to see.  And there will be plenty of time in the days and weeks to come for the Phillies to analyze what went wrong, and what to do about certain roster spots (and salary decisions) that they will soon be facing.

As for the game itself, it appeared to all that the Phillies might be ready to put a whooping on the Giants, who brought a talented but shaky lefty Jonathan Sanchez to the mound.  The Phillies promptly rode a walk, three hits and a sacrifice fly to take a 2-0 lead in the first. In retrospect, it could have been more, but a 2-0 lead with Roy Oswalt on the mound and a crazed crowd imploring it to the finish line seemed like it would be enough at the time.

After SF tied the game in the top of the third, the Phillies had ample opportunity to take the lead back in the bottom of the inning.  Sanchez gave Placido Polanco a free pass before plunking Utley in the upper back to put the first two runners on.  What followed immediately after was a mixture of the bizarre and the all-too-familiar for Phillies fans.

Utley, on his way to first, scooped up the offending baseball that had bounced off his back, and gave it an underhand lob in the general vicinity of a frustrated Sanchez, who was nearing an implosion.  Words were exchanged by the two, and sooner or later there was a bench-clearing something or other that featured the usual posturing.

When order was restored, Bochy turned to his bullpen, which turned out to be a masterful move.  In came lefty reliever Jeremy Affeldt who promptly fanned Ryan Howard, induced Jayson Werth to hit a can of corn to center, and  retired Victorino on a weak grounder to first. Momentum shift back to the Giants.

On the other side of the hill, starter Roy Oswalt was not as dynamic as he had been in Game 2, but yielded only two runs (just one was earned) on nine hits and no walks in his six innings of solid work.  Usually, that would be enough to earn a victory with his new team, a team that boasted one of the best offenses in baseball the last several years.

For those who have been watching the Phillies all year, they observed that their team, despite scoring the second most runs in the league, had an erratic lineup that left lots of runners in scoring position.a single run at all after the first inning, despite:

• runners on first and second, no outs in the third
• bases loaded, two outs in the fifth
• man on third, one out in the sixth
• first and second, one out in the eighth

A lot of the focus for the loss will naturally be trained on Howard, who is literally and figuratively a big target.  Howard, the top RBI in baseball the last five years, somehow did not drive in a single run in his nine-game postseason and only scored one.

Some of this was bad luck as Howard hit a team-high .318 in the series.  The counter point to that was that the Big Piece struck out 12 times in the six game series. Ouch!

Game 6 was a microcosm of Howard’s postseason.  He singled with the speedy Utley on second in the first, although with one out, Utley could not get a good jump on the ball (not his fault) that fell just in front of left fielder Pat Burrell.

In the fifth, Howard doubled to the left-center gap, with Rollins on first and two outs.  A fortuitous carom to center fielder Andres Torres, who played it perfectly with a quick relay throw to shortstop Edgar Renteria, kept the normally speedy Rollins chained to third base.

After whiffing again in the seventh, Howard had a chance to redeem himself in the bottom of the ninth with two men on and his team down by just one run.  The same man who had uttered the famous “Just get me to the plate, boys” just last year before delivering a huge extra-base hit to carry the Phils to a come-from-behind Game 4 win in Colorado did not have the same magic this evening.

Working the count to 3-2, the still-imposing slugger looked at the 3-2 low-and-away cut fastball from Wilson and pleaded to the baseball gods (and home plate umpire Tom Hallion) for it to be ball four. It appeared to catch the corner, and no such magic or luck was rendered.

As a stunned Citizens Bank Park crowd along with millions of other Phillies fans can now attest, Howard’s plea (and with it, the Fightins entry to its third consecutive World Series) was denied.

Silence, just stunned silence strangled Phillies Nation, as that mostly no-name underdog team from the Left Coast started a wild party on their home turf of South Philly.

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NLCS 2010: 10 Ways the Philadelphia Phillies Can Turn Around Things

What are the 10 ways the Phillies can turn the NLCS around and become the first NL team since the 1940s to reach three straight World Series?

Thank you for asking.

After doing nothing against Matt Cain and Co. in Game 3, how do the prohibitive National League favorites right the ship? 

Can they afford to lose Game 4, pinning their hopes on H20 to carry them the next three games?

How can they revive their offense? It has been somewhat erratic in the regular season, yet it is still one of the best lineups in baseball and much better (on paper) than the Giants.

Does their ever-faithful skipper Charlie Manuel need to make any changes?

Check out my 10-point prescription for how the Phillies can turn around this series. Some points may be obvious, one or two may be satirical, and a few may even be insightful.

Begin Slideshow

NLCS Game 3: Praising Cain? Giants Starter Stymies Phills’ Bats in 3-0 Win

San Francisco Giants starter Matt Cain got the better of his matchup with the Phillies  Cole Hamels, spearheading his team to a 3-0 victory.  The Giants rode Cain’s terrific effort and more clutch hitting from the red-hot Cody “Babe” Ross to grab a 2-1 lead in the NLCS.

After the NLCS pairing was set, there was much punditry about how the Giants were the only team in the National League—and perhaps all of baseball—who could match up with the Phillies’ Big Three. 

After three games, these three points are clearly taking shape:

The Giants’ Big Three have matched up well with the Phillies’ vaunted H20 and most importantly have overmatched the Phillies supposedly high-powered offense.

While the top three starters are a close match for one another, this series may well be decided on the matchup of the #4 starters in Game Four tomorrow night—veteran Joe Blanton of the Phils versus rookie phenom Madison Bumgarner of the Giants.

The Phillies need to either cool off Cody Ross or have a hitter or two resemble the batting stroke of the amazing Babe Ross.

Matt Cain seemed to have the Phillies off-balance all game as he yielded just two hits in seven innings of work.  The big right-hander did walk three and plunk two others but the Phillies never seemed to have him on the ropes.

The Phillies offense—which showed some signs of life in Game Two—did not manage to connect for any extra base hits.  In the four innings that the Phillies did advance a runner into scoring position, Cain was able to get the needed strikeout (Raul Ibanez in the fourth) or groundouts (Chase Utley in the third and fifth; Shane Victorino in the seventh) to end the inning.

Meanwhile, Cole Hamels was pitching well but without any offensive support, or much defense for that matter.  Hamels was perfect through three innings, but had the misfortune of facing Ross with runners on first and third and two outs in the fourth.

Ross put the Giants on the board with a sharp single to leftfield that scored Renteria, who had led off the inning with a single.  Aubrey Huff then hit a grounder that just eluded second baseman Utley’s outstretched mitt to plate Pat Burrell.  It was clearly a hit, but a play that Utley often makes.

The Giants scored an insurance run in the fifth, although their 2-0 lead must have looked like 12-0 the way the Phillies were laboring at the plate.  Erstwhile Phillie, Aaron Rowand—seeing his first action of the NLCS—laced a double to lead off the inning.  After striking out Cain and retiring Renteria, Hamels induced Freddy Sanchez to hit a one-hopper that somehow fooled the normally reliable Utley.  The ball bounced off Chase’s right arm and into rightfield, allowing Rowand to score.

 

If 2-0 seemed like 12-0, 3-0 must have resembled a three touchdown lead.  The Phillies were sent down 1-2-3 by reliever Javier Lopez in the eighth, and Jimmy Rollins almost took closer Brian Wilson over the wall in the ninth but had to settle for a long single.  To typify the futility of the two-time defending NL champions on an otherwise beautiful day in San Francisco, Raul Ibanez followed Rollins’ near-homer with a game-ending 4-6-3 double play ball.

So what does all of this mean?  The Giants, to borrow tennis parlance, held serve in a game that was probably more important to them than to the Phils.  Now, skipper Charlie Manuel will apparently take Joe Blanton (9-6, 4.82) out of storage to oppose the 21 year-old Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00), who won the NLDS clincher in Atlanta.

 

If the Phillies win Game Four, they tie the series at 2-2, and have their ace Roy Halladay for one more game in San Francisco before heading back home.

 

If the Giants win, they take a 3-1 lead with their ace Tim Lincecum pitching at home with a chance to shock the baseball world and win the series in five.

No matter what Blanton gives them in Game Four, Phillies Nation is praying that their offense–whether carried by Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth  or their own version of Babe Ross–finally shows up.

 

GOLD NOTES

Two notes on Matt Cain.  Although he just turned 26, he is the longest-tenured Giant.  He also entered the game with an 0-3 career record, and a high ERA versus the Phillies. So much for that precursor.

Barry Bonds got a huge ovation when he was introduced (in uniform) before the game.  AT&T Park may be the only ballpark in America that Bonds would not have been booed off the field.

The last time the Phils were blanked in a postseason game was Game 5 of the 1983 World Series when Scott McGregor started for the Orioles.

For my money, the singing of both the national anthem and God Bless America (seventh inning stretch) were as lame and ineffective as the Fightins’ bats.

Despite a great flyover and a majestic U.S. flag, someone named Ben Gibbard, from some indie band called Death Cab For Cutie, sleepsang his way through the national anthem, while Zooey Deschanel gave us a flaccid, brutal God Bless America.

A tough night for Phillies and music fans. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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NLCS 2010: Oswalt, Rollins Lead Phillies To 6-1 Win Over Giants, Series Tied

A masterful outing by “Little Roy” Oswalt and a two-hit, four RBI night by shortstop Jimmy Rollins carried the Philadelphia Phillies to a 6-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants, evening their NLCS at one game apiece.

 

To the delight of their hometown fans, the Phillies more resembled the team that was the hottest in baseball over the final two months of the regular season.  While their offense was not electric, they did come alive for eight hits, while drawing five walks and stealing three bases.

 

The key to the game was the dominance of Oswalt, who also more resembled the co-ace that was unbeatable at Citizens Bank Park the last two-plus months, save his sub-par performance in Game Two of the NLDS versus Cincinnati.  Oswalt would yield only three hits, while fanning nine and walking three in eight sharp innings.

 

Oswalt even took a no-hitter and a 1-0 lead to the fifth inning before he left a pitch where the volcano-hot Cody Ross could handle it.  Babe Ross deposited the inside fastball deep into the left-center seats to tie the game at 1-1.  The encouraging sign?  While Ross also drove one deep to center that Shane Victorino hauled in, the Phils did limit Ross to only one homer.

 

The Phillies did not exactly hammer Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez, who struck out seven and yielded five hits in his six innings.  They did take advantage of Sanchez’ early lack of control to manufacture a run in the bottom of the first. 

 

After Victorino struck out looking, Chase Utley—who switched spots in the batting order with Placido Polanco—coaxed a walk, and stole second.  Polanco followed with a soft bouncer to third baseman Mike (don’t call me Brooks) Fontenot whose slightly errant throw eluded first baseman Aubrey Huff.  With runners on first and third, Ryan Howard drew a walk from a full count.

 

Home plate umpire Dan Iassogna seemed to figure in the fortunes of the next two batters.  Jayson Werth was called out looking on a pitch that appeared to be around Werth’s shoulders.  In stepped Jimmy Rollins with two outs and the bases still jammed.  It appeared that Sanchez’ fourth ball to Rollins (“driving in” the game’s first run) got a little of the plate, but perhaps Iassogna owed them one.  The Giants’ lefty did come back to strike out Raul Ibanez, limiting the damage to just one run.

 

The Phillies responded to Ross’ blast with a run of their own to recapture the lead at 2-1 after five.  Victorino led off the bottom of the fifth with a rope down the left field line for a double, and advanced to third on Utley’s fly ball to Ross.  Polanco lofted a fly to medium center to score the man known as The Flyin’ Hawaiian.

 

The two-time defending NL champs gave their pleasantly surprised fans a bigger dose of small ball in the seventh to put the game out of reach.  Oswalt led off with a solid hit up the middle that served to take Sanchez out of the game.  Victorino bunted the pitcher over, and Utley was intentionally walked (curiously?) with the base open.

 

Polanco, liking the three-hole, singled cleanly up the middle. Oswalt, ignoring the stop sign flashed by third base coach Sam Perlozzo, came around to score to put the Phils up by two.  After a double steal by Utley and Polanco, and an intentional walk to Werth to load the bases, the stage was set for Rollins in the type of big spot he usually covets.

 

Although Rollins had registered a hit earlier in the game, it was only because third baseman Fontenot forgot to put his glove under a pop-up that any half-decent Little Leaguer would have camped under.  With a 2-0 count, Rollins attacked a borderline low pitch and drilled it to deep center, one-hopping the wall, and scoring all three runners.  6- 1, Phillies, and with the way Oswalt was dealing, the game was effectively over.

 

In the final analysis, the return to form from Rollins and the little ball displayed by an offense that often seems to wait for the three-run homer have to be good signs for the Phillies, as they still have to figure out ways to score against a great Giants pitching staff. 

 

Factor in the terrific outing by Oswalt—with Cole Hamels set to pitch Game Three— and it’s now a whole new series with the action resuming Tuesday afternoon in San Francisco.

 

 

GOLD NOTES:

 

Placido Polanco’s RBI single in the bottom of the seventh was the Phillies first hit in 11 at-bats with runners in scoring position.

 

 

Babe Ruth, Rusty Staub, Willie Stargell, and…Cody Ross?  With his solo shot in the fifth, Babe Ross became only the fourth player to hit his team’s first three homers in a postseason series. 

 

Polanco may have been out of the baseline on the play in the first inning where Fontenot was charged with a throwing error.  The Giants did not appear to protest the non-call.

 

One of the biggest cheers of the night was for both manager Charlie Manuel and Oswalt in the top of the eighth.  With runners on first and second and two outs, left-handed first baseman Aubrey Huff stepped into the batter’s box.  Manuel came out to the mound to talk to Oswalt, who apparently talked Manuel into staying in the game.  He did, Manuel returned to the dugout to a nice ovation, and Oswalt retired Huff to end the inning.

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