2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 79: Has Phillies’ Roy Oswalt Returned To Ace Form?
March 10, 2011 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
The 2008 and 2009 seasons suggested Roy Oswalt’s ace status had been stripped after proving to be the best pitcher in baseball not named Pedro or Johan from 2002 to 2007, posting a 7.26 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, 3.11 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 212 innings per year.
That being said, Oswalt did dominate the first half of 2010 in Houston, to the tune of a 3.42 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.
He was traded to the Phillies in late July and stepped his game up even further while continuing to show why he’s the best second-half pitcher in baseball. In 12 starts (82 2/3 innings) with Philadelphia, Oswalt posted a ridiculous 1.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 7.95 K/9 and 2.29 BB/9.
So, is that it? Should Oswalt be drafted as an elite starter in 2011?
Not quite.
Oswalt’s FIP (3.27) and xFIP (3.45) were slightly elevated in comparison to his season ERA of 2.76, but not enough to suggest he’ll implode in 2011; his career-low .253 BABIP, however, likely aided his performance.
A slight regression is likely on the cards for Oswalt this season, though his 2009 campaign (4.12 ERA, 3.13 career) was clearly an outlier.
Oswalt’s four-pitch arsenal was as good as it’s ever been last season, likely benefiting from the presence of teammates Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee:
- Fastball: 55.4 percent, 17.6 runs above average
- Slider: 14.8 percent, 5.7 runs above average
- Curveball: 14.7 percent, 7.3 runs above average
- Changeup: 15.1 percent, 7.1 runs above average
Don’t expect a strikeout rate above eight again, but his exceptional walk rate should help keep his WHIP under 1.20, while his ERA should settle in around 3.35.
| IP | W | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | WHIP | |
| 2010 stats | 211.2 | 13 | 8.21 | 2.34 | 2.76 | 1.03 |
| 3-year average | 200.2 | 13 | 7.42 | 2.15 | 3.44 | 1.18 |
| 2011 FBI Forecast | 208 | 15 | 7.50 | 2.20 | 3.35 | 1.17 |
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
- Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
- Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
- No. 71: Francisco Liriano
- No. 72: Tommy Hanson
- No. 73: Brian Roberts
- No. 74: Shane Victorino
- No. 75: Michael Young
- No. 76: Casey McGehee
- No. 77: Aramis Ramirez
- No. 78: Matt Cain
Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training Injury Report
- Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
- Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?
30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:
- Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
- Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
- Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com
2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 74: Will Phillies’ Shane Victorino Bounce Back?
March 9, 2011 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Shane Victorino posted a career-high 18 HRs in 2010, but his career-low .259 batting average is what’s scaring away fantasy managers this season. His current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 138, a far cry from where his three-year averages (see below) indicate he should be.
Victorino’s .273 BABIP last season suggests some poor luck, though his career-high fly-ball percentage (37.6 percent, career 35.1 percent) may indicate a slight change in his swing, not his luck. Fortunately, his batted ball rates weren’t too far off the norm, so a bounce-back performance in 2011 is within reason.
The Flyin’ Hawaiian’s 2011 value will rely heavily on his spot in the Phillies’ lineup. While over half his 2010 at-bats came in the leadoff spot, the switch-hitter is currently slated to bat fifth behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.
Of course, if Utley’s knee injury shelves him for any significant amount of time, that could change. If not, Jimmy Rollins’ struggles in recent seasons are likely to keep the Phillies’ lineup a fluid situation.
For now, I’ll project Victorino as the No. 5 hitter. This will limit his run-scoring opportunities but should lead to a small spike in RBI. He’s likely to steal 25 to 35 steals, either way.
Victorino leads the third-tier of outfielders with unique 20/30 potential and won’t hurt your team’s batting average.
| PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | |
| 2010 stats | 648 | 84 | 18 | 69 | 34 | .259 |
| 3-year average | 656 | 96 | 14 | 63 | 32 | .281 |
| 2011 FBI Forecast | 650 | 85 | 15 | 80 | 30 | .280 |
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
- Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
- Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
- No. 71: Francisco Liriano
- No. 72: Tommy Hanson
- No. 73: Brian Roberts
Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training Injury Report
- Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
- Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?
30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:
- Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
- Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
- Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com
2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 50: Jimmy Rollins Doesn’t Need a High Batting AVG
February 20, 2011 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Jimmy Rollins is an enigma.
In 2007, his 139/30/94/41/.296 line was one of the greatest fantasy baseball seasons in recent memory. In 2008, Rollins’ power (11 HRs) and batting average (.277) dropped drastically while he battled a lingering ankle injury.
His 2009 line included the rare power/speed combo (21 HRs, 31 SBs) that fantasy managers wanted to see, but it came with an unusually low .250 batting average. Most people (myself included), chalked this up to a lowly .251 BABIP, and predicted a 2010 batting average closer to his career mark in the .270 range.
Unfortunately for Rollins’ fantasy managers, not only did his batting average bottom out again (.243) but his BABIP (.246) appeared to hold him back while he battled through calf and hamstring injuries that limited him to just 88 games. He also underwent surgery in December to remove cysts from his wrist.
Assuming 100 percent health in 2011, Rollins is the fourth best player at a thin shortstop position, even with a low batting average.
Although he’s entering his age-32 season, Rollins has maintained exceptional stolen base percentages in recent years:
- 2008: 94 percent (47-of-50)
- 2009: 79 percent (31-of-39)
- 2010: 94 percent (17-of-18)
It’s possible that the .251 and .246 BABIP totals over the last two seasons aren’t entirely the fault of bad luck injuries, but they’ve definitely factored in. If we’re assuming only 130-140 games this season and an average amount of luck, the Phillies’ leadoff man will trump the likes of Jeter, Ramirez, Drew and Andrus at the shortstop position.
| PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | |
| 2010 Sats | 394 | 48 | 8 | 41 | 17 | .243 |
| Three-Year Average | 581 | 75 | 13 | 59 | 32 | .258 |
| 2011 FBI Forecast | 600 | 90 | 15 | 60 | 25 | .267 |
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
- Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
- Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
- Nos. 31-40: Heyward, Upton or McCutchen?
- No. 41: Clayton Kershaw
- No. 42: Alex Rios
- No. 43: Brian McCann
- No. 44: Drew Stubbs
- No. 45: Ichiro Suzuki
- No. 46: Andre Ethier
- No. 47: Martin Prado
- No. 48: Cole Hamels
- No. 49: Zack Greinke
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:
- Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
- Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
- Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
- Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
- The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
- 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
- 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com
2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 48: Why Cole Hamels Is the Most Underrated Pitcher
February 19, 2011 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Since 2007, only eight pitchers with at least 800 innings have an ERA lower than Cole Hamels’ mark of 3.44. Of those eight pitchers, only Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren have a strikeout rate higher than Hamels’ 8.32 K/9. Further, only Halladay and Haren have a walk rate lower than Hamels’ 2.21 BB/9.
Hamels’ 2009 campaign (4.32 ERA) apparently erased the memories of his sparkling 3.39 and 3.09 ERAs in the two years before, not to mention his World Series MVP performance in 2008.
After reminding fantasy managers of his brilliance with a 3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.10 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9 in 2010, observers have still been slow to notice.
Yahoo! composite ranks Hamels as the 14th best pitcher in 2011, while he’s being drafted as the 15th best pitcher according to Mock Draft Central’s ADP. In all reality, Hamels makes a strong case as a top-10 pitcher.
Last year, Hamels ranked among the league’s best in pitching statistics that indicate true swing-and-miss stuff:
- Contact rate: 74.8 percent (second)
- Swinging strike rate: 11.9 percent (second)
- Strikeout rate: 9.10 (10th)
If that’s not enough to convince you of his dominance, consider this: Hamels posted a ridiculous 2.23 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.69 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9 in the second half last year.
Entering his age-27 season, Hamels is clearly the best No. 4 starter in the majors. Matchups against the likes of Jair Jurrjens, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Young and Jason Marquis will favor Hamels, allowing him the opportunity to post a career-high in wins this season.
| IP | W | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | WHIP | |
| 2010 Stats | 208.2 | 12 | 9.10 | 2.63 | 3.06 | 1.18 |
| Three-Year Average | 210 | 12 | 8.22 | 2.24 | 3.46 | 1.18 |
| 2011 FBI Forecast | 214 | 17 | 8.60 | 2.30 | 3.20 | 1.18 |
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
- Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
- Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
- Nos. 31-40: Heyward, Upton or McCutchen?
- No. 41: Clayton Kershaw
- No. 42: Alex Rios
- No. 43: Brian McCann
- No. 44: Drew Stubbs
- No. 45: Ichiro Suzuki
- No. 46: Andre Ethier
- No. 47: Martin Prado
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:
- Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
- Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
- Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
- Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
- The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
- 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
- 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com
2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 33: Why Cliff Lee’s Move To the NL Isn’t a Factor
February 8, 2011 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Less than four years ago, Cliff Lee was sent down to Single-A in an attempt to resurrect his career. In three seasons since, the crafty southpaw has averaged 222 innings, 16 wins, 7.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9, 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP per season with four different MLB teams.
In 2010, Lee posted a minuscule walk rate of 0.76, the lowest since Carlos Silva (0.43 BB/9) in 2005. Lee also led the league in first-pitch strike rate last year, firing the first pitch across the plate 69.8 percent of the time (MLB average 58.8 percent).
His contact rate (84.1 percent in 2010, 83.5 percent career, 80.7 percent MLB average) has always been high and his strikeout totals aren’t overwhelming. Luckily, Lee doesn’t have to have dominant stuff given the Phillies’ defense.
Although Lee’s shift back to the N.L. might appear beneficial, his N.L./A.L. splits since 2008 are very similar:
- N.L.: 181.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.50 K/9, 1.29 BB/9
- A.L.: 486 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.13 K/9, 1.35 BB/9
It is important to note, however, that Lee has fared very well in limited action at Citizens Bank Park:
- 35.2 IP, 2.52 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.11 K/9, 1.26 BB/9
Given a fourth-consecutive season of 210-plus innings, there’s every reason to believe Lee will perform as a top-five fantasy pitcher. Draft the 32-year-old with confidence.
| IP | W | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | WHIP | |
| 2010 stats | 212.1 | 12 | 7.84 | 0.76 | 3.18 | 1.00 |
| 3-year average | 222.1 | 16 | 7.23 | 1.28 | 2.98 | 1.12 |
| 2011 FBI Forecast | 224 | 17 | 7.20 | 1.30 | 3.20 | 1.12 |
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
- Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
- Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
- No. 31: Joe Mauer
- No. 32: Victor Martinez
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:
- Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
- Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
- Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
- Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
- 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
- 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com
2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 22: Why Chase Utley Is Not The Top Second Baseman
January 31, 2011 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
During a five-year period from 2005 to 2009, Chase Utley was one of the most valuable assets in fantasy baseball, averaging 151 games, 111 runs, 29 HRs, 101 RBI, 15 steals and a .301 batting average per season as a second baseman.
A thumb injury which required surgery forced him to miss seven weeks last season, ending his five-year streak of awesomeness. Although Utley did return in time to post an impressive September line, Utley’s time as the top fantasy second baseman has likely ended.
This isn’t to say Utley isn’t still capable of 25 HRs, 15 steals and a .290 average. Rather, Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia have finally caught up to Utley as they both enter their prime years. Utley, on the other hand, is now 32 years old.
While Utley’s plate discipline stats don’t suggest much regression, a trend in his batting average over the last few years is somewhat peculiar:
- 2007: .332
- 2008: .292
- 2009: .282
- 2010: .275
While a bounceback season is fully expected, this downward pattern is worth mentioning.
Surprisingly, one area of Utley’s game that hasn’t declined is his base stealing efficiency:
- 2008: 88 percent (14 out of 16)
- 2009: 100 percent (23 out of 23)
- 2010: 87 percent (13 out of 15)
- Career: 88 percent (96 out of 109)
Given a full season of health as the Phillies’ No. 3 hitter, Utley can still be one of the most productive players at his position.
| PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | |
| 2010 stats | 511 | 75 | 16 | 65 | 13 | .275 |
| 3-year average | 635 | 100 | 27 | 87 | 17 | .284 |
| 2011 FBI Forecast | 650 | 95 | 26 | 100 | 15 | .288 |
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Nos. 1-10 Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
- Nos. 11-20 Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
- No. 21: Dustin Pedroia
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:
- Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
- Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
- Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
- Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
- 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
- 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com
2011 Projections, No. 19: Why Phillies’ Roy Halladay Is the Top Fantasy Pitcher
January 25, 2011 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Fantasy managers generally avoid starting pitchers entering their age-34 season, but when you’ve tallied no less than 220 innings for five consecutive seasons with a 2.96 ERA over that time frame, exceptions can be made. That’s just the case with Roy Halladay.
During the aforementioned five-year span (2006-2010), Halladay has averaged a whopping 18 wins per season and posted a minuscule 1.51 walk rate.
But wait, there’s more.
Still speaking in terms of the last five seasons, Halladay has posted by far the best first-pitch strike rate (65.2 percent) and top O-Swing rate (30.7 percent) among qualified starters.
In 2010, Halladay boasted the best cutter in the majors to go along with an extremely effective fastball/change-up/curveball repertoire. The Phillies’ ace hasn’t lost any velocity on his fastball (92.6 average MPH in 2010, 92.1 career), and is among the league leaders in ground ball rate.
His slightly above-average strikeout rate (7.86 in 2010) is somewhat negated by the fact that he piles up so many innings, as he’s posted 200-plus strikeouts in three consecutive seasons.
A tiny regression to the mean may be in Halladay’s future, though not enough to keep him from being the No. 1 fantasy pitcher in 2011. Draft him with confidence.
| IP | W | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | WHIP | |
| 2010 stats | 250.2 | 21 | 7.86 | 1.08 | 2.44 | 1.04 |
| 3-year average | 245 | 19 | 7.74 | 1.27 | 2.67 | 1.07 |
| 2011 FBI Forecast | 240 | 19 | 7.60 | 1.30 | 2.80 | 1.10 |
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
- No. 11: Joey Votto
- No. 12: Robinson Cano
- No. 13: Ryan Howard
- No. 14: Alex Rodriguez
- No. 15: Prince Fielder
- No. 16: Matt Holliday
- No. 17: Mark Teixeira
- No. 18: Matt Kemp
Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
- The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
- 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
- 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options
Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com
2011 Fantasy Projections No. 13: Why Phillies’ Ryan Howard Remains a Top-5 1B
January 22, 2011 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Ryan Howard missed three weeks last August with a sprained ankle, effectively ending his four-year streak of at least 45 HRs and 136 RBI per season. That ankle is now 90 to 95 percent according to the Phillies’ website.
“It feels good,” Howard said. “It’s a lot better than it was. I got a lot of work done to it. I got a lot of the swelling out. Like I said, every once in a while, I get a little bit of stiffness or soreness, but I’ve been working out, and so far, so good.”
Howard averaged a home run every 12.1 at-bats from 2005 to 2009, before dropping to 17.7 at-bats per HR last season. Given a clean bill of health, his ridonkulous at-bat per HR rates are impossible to ignore when projecting his 2011 season.
Although Howard isn’t likely to post the 30.0 percent-plus HR/FB rates that supported his near-50 long ball totals from 2005 to 2008, the 31-year-old remains fully capable of blasting 40 bombs in 2011.
While Howard’s power may be declining slightly, his strikeout and contact rates have been trending in the right direction for the last few seasons:
K percentage
- 2007: 37.6 percent
- 2008: 32.6 percent
- 2009: 30.2 percent
- 2010: 28.5 percent
Contact Rate
- 2007: 64.7 percent
- 2008: 66.5 percent
- 2009: 67.3 percent
- 2010: 68.2 percent
Although both his strikeout and contact rates remain on the wrong side of the league average, it’s important to note that Howard’s plate discipline is—slowly but surely—improving.
Further, his career batting average (.279) is probably higher than most realize, and is identical to that of Prince Fielder, who has been wildly inconsistent over the last four seasons. Expect the more predictable Howard to blast 40 HRs and be among the league-leaders in RBI in 2011.
| PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | |
| 2010 stats | 626 | 87 | 31 | 108 | 1 | .276 |
| 3-year average | 674 | 99 | 41 | 132 | 3 | .269 |
| 2011 FBI Forecast | 680 | 100 | 39 | 130 | 1 | .277 |
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
- The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
- 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
- 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options
Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com
Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia Phillies from Houston Astros: Fantasy Impact
July 30, 2010 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
In one of the most anticipated deals of the summer, the Houston Astros traded pitcher Roy Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday in exchange for J.A. Happ and two minor league prospects.
Oswalt will make his Phillies debut Friday night against the Nationals.
From a fantasy perspective, Roy Oswalt ’s value should receive a slight boost. Despite a 3.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 129 innings with Houston this season, Oswalt owns a 6-12 record. With the NL’s third best offense in terms of runs scored (as opposed to the Astros’ 15th best) behind him, Oswalt has a great chance to double his win total in the last two months of the season with Philly.
On the surface, it may seem as though Oswalt’s new home ballpark may hinder his fantasy value. A closer look, however, says otherwise.
In four career starts at Citizens Bank Park, Oswalt is 4-0 with a 2.60 ERA. In 77.1 innings (12 starts) this year at Minute Maid Park, he’s just 2-9 with a 3.96 ERA (2.61 ERA on road this season).
If that’s not enough to sell you on Oswalt in Philly, consider this: The 32-year-old is one of the best second-half pitchers in baseball, sporting a career ERA of 3.08 following the All-Star break.
Oswalt’s fastball remains in the low to mid 90s, and his hammer curve has been very effective this season. Though his strikeout rate has been uncharacteristically high (8.37 per nine innings this year, 7.42 career), his walk rate remains low (2.37 per nine), and his xFIP (3.45) suggests similar success in the near future.
J.A. Happ breezed through the Philadelphia farm system, posting a 3.52 ERA and 9.2 K/9 in 565.2 innings (six seasons).
His 89 mph fastball has been no match for big league hitters, however, as Happ’s K/9 fell to 6.45 during his 2009 rookie campaign. While his 3.11 ERA in 217 major league innings tells one story, his career 4.65 xFIP suggests another.
Happ is an extreme fly ball southpaw, a combo that screams disaster in Houston. The 27-year-old may be a key piece in the eyes of Astros management, but his fantasy value is very limited.
Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar are the two minor league players heading from Philadelphia to Houston.
Gose is a 19-year-old outfielder who grades as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale for his arm, his defense in center field, and his speed. Baseball America ranked Gose as the Phillies’ sixth-best prospect before the season, noting that some scouts compare his offensive upside to that of Carl Crawford. His bat pales in comparison to his other tools, however, suggesting Michael Bourn is a more realistic comparison.
In a separate deal, the Astros traded Gose to the Blue Jays in exchange for 23-year-old Brett Wallace. The former St. Louis, Oakland, and Toronto farmhand is batting .301/359/.509 with 18 homer runs and 61 RBI in 385 at-bats with Triple-A Las Vegas this season. His arrival opens the door for a possible Lance Berkman trade, meaning Wallace could be playing first base with the Astros by this weekend.
Villar is a 19-year-old infield prospect with good upside. His natural position is shortstop, though some scouts believe he’ll eventually end up at second base. The switch hitter has good speed (38 steals at High-A this season), though his power potential is limited. Villar is likely three years away from the majors.
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
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More from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- A Dinger Dilemma: Will Ortiz’s Home Run Derby Success Lead to a Second-Half Slump?
- Mariners Trade Cliff Lee to Rangers for Justin Smoak: Fantasy Impact
- Why You Should Sell High on Brandon Phillips
- Giants Trade Bengie Molina to Rangers: Fantasy Impact
- Why Josh Johnson Is Better Than Ubaldo Jimenez
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Prospect Report:
- 2010 MLB Draft: When Will Bryce Harper Become Fantasy-Relevant?
- Mike Stanton’s 2010 Fantasy Value
- Does Rangers’ Justin Smoak Have Fantasy Value in 2010?
- Does Mets’ Ike Davis Have Fantasy Value in 2010?
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com
Waiver Wire Fliers: Replacing Phillies’ Second Baseman Chase Utley
June 29, 2010 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
The Phillies placed Chase Utley on the 15-day disabled list with a sprained ligament in his right thumb on Tuesday, making him the fourth player in recent weeks (Aramis Ramirez, Victor Martinez and Jason Heyward being the others) to be shelved due to a thumb injury.
It’s unclear how long the Phillies (and more importantly, your fantasy squad) will be without Utley’s services. Through 72 games this season, the 31-year-old was batting .277 with 49 runs, 11 homers, 37 RBI and five steals.
In his absence, Utley owners will be forced to ponder these waiver wire fliers as short-term replacements at second base:
• Jose Lopez struggled through the first two months of the season, but appears to have found his stroke in June. Through 102 at-bats this month, the 26-year-old is batting .265 with three homers and 12 RBI for a run-hungry Mariners lineup.
Lopez is Seattle’s third baseman, but remains eligible at second after starting 139 games at the position in 2009. He will carry an 11-game hitting streak with him into Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. He’s currently owned in 48 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
• Freddy Sanchez missed the first six weeks of the season with a shoulder injury, but has posted respectable totals since, batting .300 with 18 runs and 18 RBI in 130 at-bats. The former N.L. batting champion should get plenty of run scoring opportunities batting second for the Giants. He’s currently owned in just 21 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
• Like Sanchez, Carlos Guillen has missed time due to injury this season. That hasn’t stopped him, however, from being a productive fantasy contributor. In 158 at-bats this year, Guillen has five homers, 21 RBI, and a .291 batting average.
Guillen’s bat has been especially hot of late, as he’s hit .305 with three homers and 12 RBI in 23 games this month. The 34-year-old hit .296 with 21 homers and 102 RBI and had 13 steals as recently as 2007, and clearly has something left in the tank.
Batting behind Magglio Ordonez , Miguel Cabrera, and Brennan Boesch in the Tigers’ lineup, Guillen will see several RBI opportunities. Surprisingly, he remains available in 89 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
• Jonathan Herrera is a relatively unknown name, but the switch-hitting 25-year-old has done nothing but hit since being called up on June 1. Through 19 games this season, Herrera is batting .305 (18-for-59) and takes a 10-game hitting streak with him into Tuesday night’s game against the Padres.
The undrafted shortstop (who’s currently playing second base) has little power, as he hit just 24 homers with a .715 OPS in seven minor league seasons. However, Herrera does have some speed (131 career minor league steals), though he has yet to display it at the highest level.
His long-term outlook is bleak, but his hot streak is worth riding in deeper formats while it lasts. He’s currently owned in just one percent of Yahoo! leagues.
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