Phillies’ Closer Brad Lidge To Visit Team Doctor, Who Will Replace Him?
May 12, 2010 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
Knee and elbow surgeries during the off season delayed Brad Lidge’s 2010 debut. After recording his first save of the season on Monday, it appeared as though the Phillies’ closer was finally back.
Following a light game of catch at Coors Field on Tuesday, however, Lidge is heading back to Philadelphia to visit the team doctor.
“It really didn’t go as well as I would have liked,” Lidge said, speaking of Tuesday’s throwing session.
Lidge will be unavailable for the next few days as he’s being examined by team doctors in Philly. It’s not yet known if another DL stint is in Lidge’s immediate future.
Ryan Madson would normally fill in as the team’s closer in Lidge’s absence. A broken toe, however, will keep Madson on the shelf for the next two months.
Jose Contreras has been the Phillies’ most impressive reliever thus far, making him the favorite for saves. In 11 2/3 innings this season, the 38-year-old has a 0.77 ERA and 0.60 WHIP with 15 strikeouts and one walk. He may be unavailable for Wednesday’s doubleheader, however, as he pitched on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Phillies management hinted on Tuesday that Danys Baez may get a chance to close as well. Baez is 1-1 with 6.43 ERA and 1.36 through 14 innings thus far, but has the most closing experience with 114 career saves to his name.
Chad Durbin’s performances makes him a candidate to close as well, but Contreras is the guy to add for now. Keep an eye on this situation as more information surfaces. If Lidge is forced to the DL again, Contreras becomes a must add in all leagues.
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- 4/28: Who The Heck is Luis Atilano?
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More 2010 Fantasy Baseball Insiders Player Projections:
- Cole Hamels
- Livan Hernandez
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- Delmon Young
- Drew Stubbs
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- Jay Bruce
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- B.J. Upton
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2010 Projections: Why You Should Buy Low on Phillies’ Cole Hamels
May 5, 2010 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
After Tuesday night’s gem against St. Louis, Phillies’ starter Cole Hamels lowered his season ERA to a less than desirable 4.42. His stellar 44/12 K/BB ratio and 2.79 BB/9, however, suggests more success is on the horizon.
Through 38 2/3 innings thus far, Hamels has fallen victim to a .356 BABIP, which explains his sky-high 1.42 WHIP. A similiarly high BABIP (.325) plagued Hamels in 2009 as well, as the 2002 first-rounder posted a career-high 4.32 ERA.
Despite this, Hamels’ 2009 peripherals (7.81 K/9, 2.00 BB/9) were in line with his career totals of 8.47 and 2.31.
One major difference from 2008 to 2009 was Hamels’ o-swing rate-the percentage of pitches an opposing batter swings at outside the strike zone. In 2008, Hamels coaxed whiffs on pitches outside the zone a whopping 30.8 percent of the time (the league average that year was 25.4 percent). In 2009, that number dropped to 26.8 percent.
This could mean one of two things. Either Hamels’ stuff wasn’t quite as nasty last year, or perhaps he was pitching too well. Through six starts in 2010, his o-swing rate is back up to 31.6 percent, leading this Insider to believe the 2008 version of Hamels will emerge this season.
Hamels’ 2009 FIP (3.72) also suggests a bounce-back season is likely. Don’t forget that Hamels posted ace-like ERAs of 3.39 and 3.09 in 2007 and 2008, respectively, as well as WHIPs of 1.12 and 1.08 to go along with the aforementioned strikeout and walk rates.
Given his fourth straight season with no less than 180 innings, Hamels is capable of approaching 200 strikeouts and a 3.50 ERA, making him an excellent buy-low candidate.
FBI Forecast: 200 IP, 14 W, 185 K (8.3 K/9), 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
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More 2010 Fantasy Baseball Insiders Player Projections:
- Livan Hernandez
- Mike Pelfrey
- Delmon Young
- Drew Stubbs
- Nolan Reimold
- Jay Bruce
- Geovany Soto
- B.J. Upton
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Matt Wieters
Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight updates:
- 5/4: Is Yankees’ Pitcher A.J. Burnett Really This Good?
- 5/3: Red Sox’s Mike Lowell Turns Back the Clock
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Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: What’s Wrong with Jimmy Rollins?
May 18, 2009 by Nick Kappel
Filed under Fan News
Several top sluggers have struggled through the first month and a half of the season.
Grady Sizemore is batting .220 but has seven bombs and six steals. Mark Teixeira is batting a paltry .238 in Yankee pinstripes but remains on pace for 39 HRs. Lance Berkman has battled just to stay above the Mendoza line despite blasting eight dingers thus far.
Jimmy Rollins, on the other hand, is batting just .216 with only two long balls and three steals, putting many fantasy managers in a tough position.
What do you do if you own Philadelphia’s second round pick in 1996?
There are two sides to this story.
The first side, which we’ll call the pessimistic side, would make the argument that Rollins’ 2006 and 2007 campaigns were a fluke, based on his previous career averages from 2001 to 2005.
| R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | |
| 2006 | 127 | 25 | 83 | 36 | .277 |
| 2007 | 139 | 30 | 94 | 41 | .296 |
| ‘01-’05 AVG | 100 | 12 | 61 | 34 | .273 |
Teammate Ryan Howard’s first full season in the majors did not come until 2006, the year Rollins found his power stroke. Furthermore, J-Roll’s career .331 OBP suggests he is not a true power hitter.
Still not convinced?
Baseball statistician Bill James suggests a player’s best years come between the ages of 25 and 29. Rollins’ 2006 and 2007 seasons came at the ages of 27 and 28, respectively. He turned 30 last November.
So is it all downhill from here?
The optimistic side would argue against it.
Rollins’ breakout season actually came in 2004, when he hit .289 (opposed to his .261 batting clip in his previous three seasons). The Phillies’ shortstop also cut his strikeout per at-bat rate of 17 percent in his previous three seasons to just 11 percent in 2004, further proving his progression as a young hitter.
Rollins’ keen eye prevailed again in 2005, when he cut his strikeout rate to 10 percent.
Where am I going with this?
My point is that it’s more difficult to argue that four seasons are a fluke, compared to just two. Based on Rollins’ 2004 and 2005 numbers, 2006 and 2007 were no fluke.
Rollins’ slow start this season can be attributed to his current .236 BABIP. Based on his career mark of .299, it’s safe to say his average will go up.
Furthermore, Rollins’ career stats by month show that he gets progressively better over the course of the season:
- April: .265
- May: .267
- June: .273
- July: .276
- August: .277
- September: .293
September has been his best month historically. During the last month of the regular season, Rollins has set career monthly highs in runs, doubles, triples, home runs, runs batted in, steals, average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
This is important, because it shows that Rollins peaks during the fantasy baseball playoffs, when you need your star players the most.
If you own Rollins, hold on to him. Another 30/30 season might be too much to expect, but keep this in mind: Over the last four seasons (including his injury-shortened 2008 campaign), Rollins has averaged 114 runs, 20 HRs, 41 steals, and a .285 batting average, a stat line that was topped by only one player in 2008: Hanley Ramirez.
PACE represents the player’s 162-game pace based on their current stats. PROJ represents what I project the player’s stat line will be at the end of the season. These numbers are based on games played before Sunday, May 17.
| R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | |
| PACE | 100 | 10 | 57 | 14 | .216 |
| PROJ | 115 | 18 | 75 | 40 | .280 |
Original Article: Baseball Reflections