10 Bold Predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2014

Nowadays, Terrell Owens is more welcome in Philadelphia than Ruben Amaro Jr. The Philadelphia Phillies general manager is abhorred to the point where a parody Twitter account has been established under the name Ruin Tomorrow Jr. The ensuing hilarity is not comedic but tragic.

The Phillies have nosedived so bad they are now the laughingstock of Major League Baseball. Since winning 102 games in 2011, they have bottomed out to the point where David Schoenfield of ESPN.com predicts they will only win 66 games in 2014.

Lacking foresight, Amaro has made things worse by doubling down on a roster chock full of overpaid and over-the-hill 30-something-year-olds. 

Still, hope persists every spring. Philadelphia fans know this best. After all, this is the same organization that was the first in sports history to lose 10,000 games. Despite that, Phillies nation persistently comes out and provides one of the best ballpark atmospheres in MLB.

And while some things are easy to predict, like Cliff Lee pitching on a near-Cy Young level, others are not. Without further ado, let’s delve into the ten bold predictions for the upcoming season.

 

1. At best, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez will be a marginal reliever

Something doesn’t smell right with this guy. After a groundbreaking six-year contract worth $60 million fell through due to physical concerns, the Cuban defector would settle for a mere $12 million deal over the course of three years.

Why? Red flags were raised concerning his elbow. 

It appears those red flags were legit. Early on in spring training, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez is not impressing bystanders. According to David Murphy of Philly.com, “Gonzalez’s velocity looked down compared with many of the other pitchers around him who are supposed to have similar arm strength.”

Little is known about Gonzalez. He hadn’t pitched in a game for two years because of a suspension levied on him by Cuba for trying to defect numerous times.

Therefore, if anyone has an ounce of enthusiasm for what Gonzalez could bring to the club, they are likely blinded by rose-colored goggles. That is, until Gonzalez proves otherwise.

 

2. Maikel Franco will hit at least 20 HR in the majors

Obviously, projected third baseman Cody Asche will not suffice, and Maikel Franco will get the call to the big league’s in 2014. 

While Asche proved to hold a steady bat in the minors, his .235 batting average and 24 percent strikeout rate are not going to prevent Franco from supplanting him in the Phillies lineup. Franco is coming off of a year in which he hit 31 HR, 103 RBI and had an average of .319. He also strikes out less than half as much as Asche.

A top prospect in all of MLB, Franco has also flashed a good glove at the hot corner. The culmination of everything he provides will prove to be much better than what Asche can. If anything, consider Asche a speed bump to Franco’s arrival in the majors this upcoming season.

 

3. A.J. Burnett will not be traded

If, or better yet, when the Phillies wheels begin to fall off and this season becomes more and more lost, the Phillies are expected to hold a fire sale—or one would think. While a plethora of likely trade candidates exist on the Phillies roster, don’t expect A.J. Burnett to be one of them.

He was considering retirement for a reason. He wanted to pitch somewhere close to home and, at the end of the day, Philadelphia worked out best. In addition, Burnett is associated with assistant GM Scott Proefrock. The two live in the same area, and their sons are close friends, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.

While he does hold a limited no-trade clause, don’t expect Burnett to exercise an option to land anywhere else. The Phillies bring proximity and stability to Burnett’s home life—something the righty was eager for—or else he was likely to retire.

 

4. Jonathan Papelbon will be dealt

Let’s be honest, Jonathan Papelbon’s tenure in Philly has been nothing but tumultuous. He has exercised dismay at the performance of the club while struggling himself for long periods of time. Additionally, his rich contract leaves many fans desiring more.

The Phillies pressed hard to trade Papelbon in the offseason—they found no suitors. Reality will smack Amaro across the face and he will have to eat some of Papelbon’s luxurious contract in order to move him out of Philly. If not, the Phillies will continue to rely on a closer with diminishing velocity and less-than-elite stuff.

 

5. Cole Hamels will be traded

At 30 years old, Cole Hamels has been nothing but great with the Phillies. He was the World Series MVP in 2008 and, following that, he has been a staple of consistency while placing himself among the best left-handed pitchers in the National League.

Unfortunately, the prevailing losses will continue to mount, and Philadelphia will be stuck dumping him. Aside from Lee, Hamels is the Phillies’ best asset to trade.

He still has another four or five years of quality, top-of-the-rotation pitching in him. Any candidate with the financial flexibility to take on his $22.5 million annual salary would be pressed to do so.

Lee will also be traded, but that isn’t a bold prediction now is it?

 

6. Jimmy Rollins will be traded too

As I quipped, the Phillies will have to hold a fire sale in order to further replenish their farm system. They aren’t realistic World Series contenders and, in order for them to be such, an extraordinary amount of things must sway in their favor.

That is unlikely to occur.

While Jimmy Rollins has been the face of this franchise since Larry Bowa was the skipper, he isn’t immune to being dealt. 

His production is beginning to trend in the wrong direction. For the first time since 2002, Rollins finished with a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) under 2.0 in 2013. With the Phillies not expected to contend, he would fit in better with a club that is ready to contend.

Rollins is no longer a bat worthy of having in the top three of the lineup. The makeup of the Phillies lineup requires him to do so and that further hinders his potential to produce, regardless of his age. He is a better fit elsewhere.

 

7. Jesse Biddle will provide some hope

The 2014 season will finally give the fans of the Phillies hope for the future. A transition will occur as we begin to see the stars of the Charlie Manuel era fade and new faces show promise for the future. Lefty Jesse Biddle will be one of those projecting promise.

He will finally get the call to the majors.

Despite some setbacks last season, Biddle actually didn’t pitch as bad as his numbers suggest. He had some rough outings, but he improved on his strikeout rate. Additionally, opposing hitters Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) dropped to .278 from .308 the year before.

Control is still an issue with him, though. Without an extensive array of metrics to further enhance his projections, Biddle should be considered for what he is: a workhorse-type arm with a high ceiling.

He will get innings in the majors this year. While the Phillies may look bad in the standings department, Biddle will show everyone why the future is brighter than the dark clouds of today.

 

8. Ryan Howard will hit 30 or more HR

Often the butt of jokes in Philadelphia, Ryan Howard is no longer the hefty bat we have known since 2006. Still, he has enough pop in his bat to hit for a strong number of home runs. While his average is expected to hover around .250, Howard will provide fans with plenty of reasons to cheer.

Howard’s defense, however, may hurt the team. Overall, his batting may not be enough to turn the tide in Philly, either. Phillies fans are stuck with him as Howard has a contract that breaks the bank.

Just take the home runs he will provide and be happy. It could be worse.

 

9. Ben Revere will steal 50 bases

Ben Revere will not hit a single home run, but he does provide blazing speed on the base paths. After a dismal start to last season, Revere turned things around before seeing his season end with a broken ankle. Revere finished with an average of .305 and an OBP of .338. 

It’s not near-sighted to suggest he’ll finish with better numbers in 2014. With an increase in average and OBP, Revere will tally even more stolen bases. His career high came in 2012 with the Minnesota Twins when he stole 40 bases. Even more can be expected in 2014.

Why?

The Phillies will lean on Revere to get into scoring position via his speed. The Phillies lineup will struggle driving in runs, as they have each of the last two seasons.

Revere’s speed gives the lineup a comparative advantage in this regard. Therefore, skipper Ryne Sandberg is expected to lean on Revere’s speed as much as he can.

 

10. The Phillies will finish last in the NL East

Even those who think the Phillies are fading fast don’t believe they’ll finish behind the New York Mets and Miami Marlins.

Think again.

Even with the current roster, the Phillies will struggle to touch 75 wins. What do you think will happen if or when Hamels, Lee, Rollins and Papelbon are dealt?

They will be worse, and that is why they need to deal those chips in order to restock the farm. 

Don’t forget, the Phillies finished fourth in the NL East behind the Mets last year. The Marlins have a young squad, but it is somewhat more respectable than the Phillies.

With Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Jose Fernandez, the Marlins are primed to win more games than expected. While it will not be many more than the Phillies, it still will be more.

The one positive to take away from such a disastrous finish is the likelihood that Amaro will be replaced. His decision-making has been atrocious. He is out of touch with the metric-based reality of baseball today, and 2014 will be the final nail in the coffin for Amaro‘s tenure as general manager.

Like Ed Wade, he will not be missed.

 

All statistics provided courtesy of Fangraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com.

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A.J. Burnett Deal Doesn’t Make Philadelphia Phillies Contenders

Hype. Anticipation. Fear.

The unknowns of spring training are what will define the 2014 season for the Philadelphia Phillies. Bum shoulders, aging veterans, overpriced contracts and an out-of-touch front office are contributing to the lower expectations on Pattison Ave.

One more noun could be added into the equation though: Manipulation.

Once again, the delirious general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies, Ruben Amaro Jr., is pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes. Or so he thinks.

According to Matt Gelb of “Philly.com,” the Phillies have inked veteran starting pitcher A.J. Burnett to a one-year deal worth $16 million. At 37 years old, Burnett is coming off of arguably his best all-around season in Pittsburgh. He posted great numbers in the National League while quarterbacking the Pittsburgh Pirates to their first playoff appearance in two decades.

The past two seasons in the Steel City are likely to confuse individuals with nearsightedness. While Burnett was stellar, his posture in the only major media market he has ever played, New York, leaves much to be desired. Simply put, Burnett did his best George Costanza impression: “It was an inferno in there! An inferno!”

Burnett couldn’t wait to get out of New York.

The heat emanating from the pressure cooker of the South Bronx was too much for the righty. In his three years with the New York Yankees, Burnett posted a 4.82 ERA to go along with his record of 34-35. In six postseason starts, he had two wins and two losses to coincide with an ERA of 4.79. Quite frankly, Burnett never lived up to the five-year, $82.5 million contract given to him by the Yankees. After three seasons in the Bronx, he was dealt to the reeling Pirates.

Burnett did resuscitate his career with the Pirates. However, his performance in the Big Apple does lend credence to the notion that the righty struggles to perform when the big lights are on him. And in South Philly, the lights will be bright.

The Phillies are apparently in transition but the front office doesn’t want you to think so. According to Jim Salisbury of “CSN Philly,” Amaro declared “We are built to contend.”

Now that’s some comedic insight.

The 2014 season does hinge on an extraction of play reminiscent of what the core of the Phillies were able to do three or four years ago. Naturally, the health of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins matter. But so does reality. In reality, we see a team which has a backbone of nothing but old and bulging discs, pinching the nerves of the very fan base which helped carry the Phillies financially since Ed Wade was chased out of town.

According to David Schoenfield of “ESPN.com,” the Phillies are projected to win 66 games in 2014. Put that in perspective. The Phillies haven’t lost that many games since 2000 when Terry Francona got the axe. 

The Phillies should certainly win more than 66 games and Burnett should help them do so. How about 80 wins? That might be asking for too much, pal.

The profane monetary figure of the Burnett contract flies in the face of anything sane. While team’s who seek veterans for one-year deals often accommodate the player by paying a premium, Burnett is not filet mignon. No, he is cube steak. There is a reason he considered hanging up the cleats for good. But instead, Amaro and company gave Burnett 16 million reasons to think otherwise.

Maybe the recent issue concerning Cole Hamels forced Amaro‘s hand. According to Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Hamels is set to miss Opening Day due to “discomfort in his shoulder and biceps.” Then again, that is just one start. 

It will be easier to trust Burnett in the rotation. After all, he immediately hurdles Kyle Kendrick, Roberto Hernandez, Jonathan Pettibone and Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. And if the Phillies do not overachieve and fail to keep things interesting into the summer, they will have a valuable trade piece in Burnett. That is, if he performs on par with what many are expecting (or close to it).

For some reason, the word “if” is being used a lot in Philly.

At the end of the day, signing Burnett is reasonable. While the price tag doesn’t match the product, it can be understood as a sign of desperation or attempted manipulation. GM Amaro has been manipulating the fan base into believing the Phillies can contend. Not everyone is buying it. The doom and gloom is real.

And while the Burnett signing does improve the rotation, let’s not go crazy. The Phillies aren’t suddenly contenders. We shouldn’t be setting off fireworks or releasing balloons into the night sky.  No, we should continue to be hypercritical. After all, everyone’s book has a final chapter and we are one day closer to Amaro‘s as GM in Philadelphia.

All statistics provided courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless stated otherwise.

 

 

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Philadelphia Phillies: How Real Is the Interest in A.J. Burnett?

If Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. were to hop out of a DeLorean DMC-12 with a freshly minted contract for Doug Glanville, would anybody be surprised?

The apparent mantra for the Phillies this offseason is to dig in with older veterans who only have to prove they can still leg it out to first base without pulling their groin. Therefore, it should be no surprise that the Phillies are interested in pitcher A.J. Burnett should he play in 2014.

According to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com, the Phillies “would still have interest” in the 37-year-old righty should he decide not to hang up his cleats. If Stark is tweeting such, it is legitimate.

One only has to peek at what the Phillies have in store for their rotation to understand where the team is probably coming from.

After Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee, the Phillies are going to have to select from Kyle Kendrick, Jonathan Pettibone, Roberto Hernandez, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and possibly Chad Gaudin to round out the rotation. While Gaudin seems the unlikeliest of the latter due to signing a minor league deal with the Phillies, the competition for the back end of the Phillies is rotting with mediocrity.

And just think, Amaro wants you to believe the Phillies can compete for a pennant in 2014.

I’m not suggesting the acquisition of Burnett would put the Phillies over the top in a bulky National League East. After all, the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves are currently composed of players that would blow the doors off Amaro‘s DeLorean. 

What I am saying is an acquisition of Burnett would make the Phillies a much more formidable foe. They would need everyone to remain healthy and play at a caliber they haven’t played at since 2011. Even then, mystical forces would have to be at work for the Nationals and Braves to falter below Philadelphia’s demarcation.

Over the past two seasons, Burnett was one of the better arms in the National League. As ace of the Pittsburgh Pirates, the righty posted a 26-21 record with an ERA of 3.41. By helping the fans of the Steel City get re-accustomed to raising the Jolly Roger, Burnett will forever be memorialized among the legends of Pirates baseball, even if his tenure was only two seasons.

All things considered, no one should be surprised if the Phillies pursue Burnett. Amaro and the organization were quick to hitch their wagon to 36-year-old Marlon Byrd. In order to fortify their 2003 reunion, they landed Bobby Abreu via a minor league contract. Contrary to the aforementioned veterans, Burnett could be more of a difference-maker in Philadelphia’s pinstripes.

With a crowded back end of the rotation, uncertainty is abound. Without any evident direction, Amaro could pull off a deal with Burnett so long as he intends to continue his career. But then again, it could be another demonstration in baseball transaction-making where the Phillies’ GM whiffs harder than Pedro Cerrano.

Needless to say, the Phillies’ interest in Burnett is real. If it weren’t, longtime baseball writer, and author of Phillies’ books, Jayson Stark wouldn’t put his neck on the line saying so.

 

All statistics provided courtesy of FanGraphs.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Breaking Down Bobby Abreu and Chad Gaudin

What do the Philadelphia Phillies, a medical gurney and a year absence from baseball have in common? They are all intertwined via two recent acquisitions for an organization on the fritz.

A pair of veteran big leaguers just recently came to terms with the Phillies. While the contracts are both minor league deals with invitations to spring training, the signings reek of what’s to come for the Phillies organization in 2014.

Recently acquired right-handed pitcher Chad Gaudin, a veteran who has donned the uniform of 10 teams since 2003, will earn $750,000 if he makes the roster in 2014. As a ground-ball pitcher, Gaudin was overly effective in San Francisco last season after fluttering each season since 2006 with Oakland.

On the plus side, Gaudin’s 2013 ERA of 3.06 was far from lucky as his Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) indicates. In 2013, Gaudin lauded a 3.34 FIP, a career-best and improvement from his previous summum bonum a year earlier.

Being far from lucky in one aspect doesn’t mean luck didn’t strike for the righty elsewhere. He posted an abnormally high 77.7 percent strand rate. Among qualifying pitchers, this would have nestled Gaudin right in front of Matt Harvey (77.4) and behind Anibal Sanchez (78.2). Simply put, Gaudin is not that good.

As a versatile arm, the Phillies could potentially benefit from what the soon-to-be 31-year-old presents though. He appears to be a viable option from the bullpen, with the ability to swing to the rotation on an as-needed basis. Last season’s 12 starts for the Giants were the first since 2009 though. However, the heavy-handed question marks within Philadelphia leave a lot to be desired and Gaudin’s repertoire doesn’t blow the doors off of any clubhouse.

Noted for being a ground-ball pitcher, Gaudin’s 38.4 percent ground-ball rate in ’13 isn’t very impressive. Comparatively speaking, Justin Masterson led the majors with a 58 percent ground-ball rate.

What makes this deal bad for Philadelphia is Gaudin’s recent run-in with the law a year ago. According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

According to police, Gaudin was drunk about 4:30 a.m. when he approached a 23-year-old woman on a gurney at Desert Springs Hospital, three miles east of the Las Vegas Strip.

The woman told police she was lying on a gurney in the emergency room lobby when Gaudin appeared, told her “she was gorgeous” and touched her face and breast, she said.

A witness heard Gaudin say, “I will take care of you, don’t worry about them,” to the woman and then saw him touch her face, leg and breast, according to a police report.

The other acquisition, outfielder Bobby Abreu, sat out the 2013 Major League Baseball season after a diminished attempt to prolong his career the year before. If the former Phillies star can “break camp with the club,” he will earn $800,000 in 2014. 

Set to turn 40 in March, Abreu fits the mold of what the Phillies have been doing roster-wise. He is an aging player, hits left and last saw a morsel of success in 2010. For a team that has struggled with too much left-handed hitting, one has to wonder where Abreu fits within the Phillies lineup should he crack the roster after spring training.

The upside to Abreu is his patience at the plate. He typically posts respectable walk rates even though his strikeout rate has incrementally increased since 2009. Despite age catching up to the former Phillies hero, he could be an upgrade on the bench over John Mayberry Jr. 

Aside from that sad fact, Abreu did have some glorious days in Philadelphia. Despite Jayson Stark’s claim that the Abreu-led Phillies were a leaderless clubhouse from 1997 through 2005, Abreu’s Home Run Derby win in the 2005 MLB All-Star Game festivities will never be forgotten. However, after a record-breaking performance in that derby, Abreu would go homerless in the 19 games following the All-Star break.

Undeterred by the minor league contracts Gaudin and Abreu received, the signings themselves are reminiscent of the pre-Charlie Manuel skipper days. They are a step in the wrong direction. Sure, neither player is guaranteed a spot on the big league roster for Opening Day, but they are symbolic of the direction Philadelphia is going.

 

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

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Comcast Transformation of Philadelphia Phillies Could Leave Amaro on the Mend

The recent news of Chris “Wheels” Wheeler and Gary “Sarge” Matthews being reassigned from the booth to other roles within the Philadelphia Phillies assembly is symbolic of what is ahead for the wavering organization.

In the days immediately following a new television contract with the Phillies, media conglomerate Comcast decided to shake things up in the booth. With a forecast predicting fledgling attendance in the near-future, one has to wonder if general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is on thin ice.

Sam Donnellon of the Philadelphia Daily News recently pondered if the Wheels and Sarge shake-up was a sign of things to come for the Phillies and whether Amaro should be worried.

As Donnellon sees it:

“Comcast, to this point a rather quiet, little, multibillion-dollar entity, has decided to become more overt in the day-to-day operations of its sports entities.”

Comcast‘s 25-year investment worth $2.5 billion and the Phillies $119 million stake in equity is nothing to sneeze at. The recent news and change in media direction would behoove the team to give in to more sweeping changes in how the organization is handled.

In fact, the Wheels and Sarge reassignments show how far the Phillies are willing to go to adhere to the Comcast enterprise. Are we entering an era where the Phillies will be pushed around by Comcast as if they were a shopping cart?

To be precise, no one knows for sure. 

If anything, one has to suspect the anticipated shortcomings of 2014 will lead to a signatory decision by Comcast in pressuring owner and president David Montgomery to make Amaro‘s seat hotter. If the team implodes and lands fourth or last in the National League East for a second consecutive season, one can only hope Comcast forces the hand of Montgomery and Amaro is dislodged from his position of general manager. 

Too much money is involved for Comcast not to act on behalf of its interests. With a farm system more barren than the factories that used to run in North Philly, Comcast could also use its apparently newfound leverage to reinvigorate the scouting department. 

The takeaways from the new television deal are uncertain though. Most speculation may be rendered extraneous. However, one thing is for sure. The suits at Comcast are going to play a heavier hand within the operation of the Phillies organization. How heavy? No one can be sure. Comcast forces will be at work though.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels Will Be a Cy Young Favorite in 2014

If fans of the Philadelphia Phillies have anything to look forward to in 2014, it will be watching their left-handed ace take to the mound. Cole Hamels, not Cliff Lee, is setting himself up for a season those in Philly haven’t seen since Roy Halladay in 2010 and Steve Bedrosian in 1987.

Despite pitching well in 2013, Hamels finished with an 8-14 record as the Phillies failed to cross home plate at a rate that ranked among the worst in Major League Baseball. To say Hamels was unlucky is putting it nicely.

For the first time in his career, Hamels failed to reach nine wins. In addition to being on the wrong side of decisions, Hamels saw his Earned Run Average (ERA) jump to its highest since 2009. His strikeout rate declined but it remains in line with his trends since 2010.

On the other hand, the 2013 data on Hamels looks promising for the upcoming season.

Several numbers stand out as positive indicators for Hamels. First, his BB/9 and HR/9 decreased to a level comparable to that of Felix Hernandez and Jordan Zimmermann. Despite his Left on Base Percentage (LOB%) dropping to its lowest rate since 2009, Hamels’ ground-ball and fly-ball percentages declined as well.

As compared to previous seasons, Hamels was not as lucky in 2013. This lack of grace could be attributed to the fact the defense behind him continues to worsen. Regardless, Hamels pitched at a level which could arguably be considered the best of his career as he adjusted to the uncontrollable variables surrounding him.

In addition to surpassing 220 innings pitched for the first time since 2008, the lefty’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 4.2 put him on par with his two previous seasons. For comparison’s sake, rookie phenom Jose Fernandez finished with a WAR of 4.2 while Washington‘s Zimmermann finished at 3.6. 

As good as teammate Cliff Lee is, Hamels is entering the prime of his career. Since 2008, the now 30-year-old has been a model of consistency. Over the last six seasons, he has averaged 33 games started, 198 strikeouts and 4.12 WAR.

Although, Hamels will have to muster up even better numbers in 2014 if he wants to finish on a plane similar to recent National League Cy Young Award winners.

Since Brandon Webb won the 2006 NL Cy Young, the ensuing NL winners averaged 19 wins, 242 strikeouts and an ERA of 2.41. Hamels career bests are as follows: 17 wins (2012), 216 strikeouts (2012) and 2.79 ERA (2011).

History and recent trends aren’t on the side of Hamels though.

Of the five NL Cy Young recipients following 2006, only Roy Halladay (33) and R.A. Dickey (37) are older than what Hamels is now. Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw were the average age of 25 when they won their Cy Youngs.

When looking at the numbers, one could make the case that Hamels has not been a top-tier pitcher. At most, naysayers could suggest he has been a second-tier pitcher. They may be right. A quick look at the peripherals suggest so when comparing them to the 2013 version of Kershaw and Adam Wainwright. 

As I pointed out, though, the peripherals aren’t everything. The lefty’s career bests aren’t in line with recent NL Cy Young winners, but to suggest he can’t attain similar numbers is foolish. As he walks into the prime of his career, with the zenith in sight, Hamels’ trends suggest that he will only get better.

With that in mind, don’t overlook him as a Cy Young candidate in 2014. While nobody, including Las Vegas, believes the Phillies are a contender in ’14, nobody can doubt the prowess Hamels possesses on the mound.

 

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MLB: Could the Philadelphia Phillies Be a Potential Player for Masahiro Tanaka?

General manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. is now backpedalling from his recent days of wheeling and dealing, where he threw Ryan Howard a bag of money valued at $125 million and another $50 million for Jonathan Papelbon.

However, the Phillies GM insists the team can compete, but to do so the organization must spend their money more “wisely” and “intelligently.”

All indicators point to the Phillies being finished spending money other than adding a cost-effective piece here or there.

Even with a new television deal that could potentially fetch the organization $150 million or more annually, Amaro Jr. seems certain to lay low with the posting of Japanese superstar pitcher Masahiro Tanaka.

With Philadelphia’s projected 2014 payroll, the team is set to be “$25 million to $30 million under the luxury-tax threshold.” Therefore, the Phillies are forecast to have a payroll hovering around the same $168 million range as last season.

One thing Amaro Jr. does get right is when he declares:

“Why would you spend money that you think is going to be money not well-spent? That’s the important part. With the way the market is set up right now, I’m not real comfortable with going the extra mile with some of the guys that are out there still that may improve us a little bit, but in the long run may be detrimental to us.”

Unfortunately, he should have thought about that several years ago. 

Contracts such as Howard’s and Papelbon’s are nothing but detrimental to the Phillies. Without digressing too much, Amaro hit the nail on the head with his statement, but hindsight is always 20/20.

Tanaka is a different story though.

At 24 years old, the Japanese righty posted a 24-0 record with the Rakuten Golden Eagles. He pitched 212 innings in 28 games, which is comparable to Cole Hamels (220 IP in 33 games).

Since the age of 18, Tanaka has averaged 188 IP per season.

Similarly, Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez debuted at age 19, but his first full season didn’t come until the next season. In his first full seven seasons, he averaged 219 IP annually.

Of course, Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in the modern era.

Attributing comparisons between he and Tanaka is unfair, but to suggest Tanaka may be overworked is sensationalism at best. As evident in this crude comparison, Tanaka has seen less innings pitched annually between the ages of 18 through 24 than Hernandez between the ages of 20 through 26.

No one knows if Tanaka is as special as King Felix though.

On the flip side, Tanaka has some red flags.

Of course, the number of innings pitched since turning 18 is of concern, but the red flag itself could be over-assessed. More importantly, Tanaka‘s strikeout rate per nine innings pitched has declined each of the last two seasons since peaking at 9.6 SO/9 in 2011. 

Tanaka‘s SO/9 rate of 7.8 in 2013 is very good, but it places him in the same range as C.J. Wilson (7.97) and Felix Doubrount (7.71). That isn’t impressive for someone pegged to earn more than $100 million.

The $20 million posting fee which must be paid before any Major League club can negotiate with the righty isn’t anything compared to what he will earn contract-wise. However, the high risk and high reward with Tanaka is something that shouldn’t be taken lightly.

If Amaro Jr. is serious about spending the team’s money more prudently, one must think he is not waging a battle plan to land Tanaka. Truth be told, the Phillies have yet to be seriously linked to the righty.

On the other hand, the plan for the rotation does not look very promising either.

Jonathan Pettibone is a near lock to get a rotation spot after pitching decently last season. This leaves two spots for Roberto Hernandez, Kyle Kendrick and the virtually unknown Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez.

Without much wiggle room to add another arm to the starting rotation, it’s more likely than not that Amaro Jr. watches the Tanaka race from the sidelines.

This will be the second consecutive offseason where the Phillies GM has failed to make a splash.

It’s possible Amaro is snake-bitten from his most recent mistake of signing Papelbon. His reluctance to aggressively pursue the top free agent arms this winter is another indicator of what to expect with the Phillies and Tanaka.

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Christmas Wishlist: More Scrooge Than Santa This Year

Oh, the yuletide spirit is among us. As families and friends gather over the holiday season, unwrapping gifts and perusing old photo albums, let us not forget what the Philadelphia Phillies should be wishing for this Christmas season.

Anyone wishing for Ruben Amaro Jr. (and his bad contracts) to take a hike out of the city via the Schuylkill Expressway will be out of luck. You might as well cross that off your wishlist. A more reasonable approach to drafting a wishlist is necessary. This season is not about erasing bad memories but forging stronger bonds for the coming year. 

While they may not deserve it, the Phillies are in need of several gifts. 2013 wasn’t very kind to the organization. It’s time to recollect and move forward with a realistic wishlist. Not a scroll of paper asking for a new Mercedes, in-ground swimming pool or a new spouse, but a pragmatic list that is realistically attainable.

 

Wish No. 1: A healthy Ryan Howard

The truth is that the Phillies are a better team when Ryan Howard sees at least 620 at-bats per season. Unfortunately, a concrete causal relationship between Howard and Phillies’ wins doesn’t exist because of so many other variables. However, when Howard missed the majority of the last two seasons, the Phillies suffered. The last time he was fully healthy, the Phillies played in October.

Howard’s days of producing a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 4 or 5 are likely over, but the Phillies have missed his presence in the heart of the lineup. In his last two seasons at full strength, the big lefty averaged 32 home runs and 112 RBI. 

His strikeout percentage climbed to nearly one in every three AB over the last two injury-plagued seasons. No one can tell for certain if his injury problems are behind him, but if they are, the Phillies will be a better team with him in the lineup. Even if he does strike out 190 times in 2014.

 

Wish No. 2: Jonathan Pettibone’s emergence as a viable starter

Apparently cash-strapped, the Phillies are not going to sign Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana after all. With one of the top one-two punches in Major League Baseball (Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee), the Phillies need the back end of their rotation to show up and be productive for 200 or more innings.

The onus is on Jonathan Pettibone. The righty saw 100.1 innings last year and finished with a semi-respectable 4.04 ERA. His win-loss record of 5-4 is forgettable though. With a low strikeout rate, Pettibone relies on his control and command. 

He didn’t appear to be too hit-or-miss last season though. His worst stretch came between Memorial Day and June 15th. Of the 45 earned runs he allowed last season, 33 percent of them came between the aforementioned span. Needless to say, Pettibone is crucial to the Phillies’ success moving forward. A few more steps in the right direction will satisfy everyone in Phillies Nation.

 

Wish No. 3: A Jesse Biddle promotion

A 5-14 record in Double-A Reading is nothing to write home about, but the organization’s top prospect is gearing himself for a MLB debut in 2014. As for the pros, Biddle has heat, and his 10-plus K/9 rate is recognized as something he could come close to retaining when he reaches the majors. 

The cons are his inconsistency and 5.33 walk percentage. If the local product can fine-tune his command and control more appropriately, the Phillies could see him in July. After all, no one is confident in Kyle Kendrick or Roberto Hernandez.

 

Wish No. 4: No Jonathan Papelbon Jerseys

Let’s get it over with. Even if the Phillies have to eat $8 million of his remaining salary per annum, they should do it. Papelbon acts as if he hates Philadelphia and, because of his attitude, Philadelphia is growing to hate him.

Aside from Amaro Jr., if anyone will be getting booed on Opening Day, it will be the closer. No one trusts Papelbon. His age and contract make him nearly untradeable. The Phillies are essentially stuck with him unless they give him away, eat the majority of his contract and accept pebbles in return. Dump the guy already.

 

Wish No. 5: A dinger for Ben Revere

After 342 MLB games and 1,400 plate appearances, Revere still has warning track power. Nothing more. Imagine if Revere was standing in the box, staring down Stephen Strasburg. Upon Strasburg’s leg lift and delivery, Revere squares on the ball and boom, it goes flying into the left field bleachers? Citizens Bank Park would go nuts.

I know most people are still unsure of what to think about the center fielder. He was traded for a fan favorite, Vance Worley, and was abysmal to start in 2013. Revere did bounce back, but an injury ended his season. Nothing more than a wallop over the fence would get fans more energized for Revere.

But then again, who am I kidding? Former Phillies center fielder and Hall of Famer Richie Ashburn had just 29 career HRs. Ashburn is the guy the organization chose to name the center field concourse after, as if he could hit a ball there.

Regardless, a homer from Revere would be nice to see. 

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Jesse Biddle, Other Prospects Who Could Help the Philadelphia Phillies in 2014

A headline declaring “Phillies Grab Whatever Roberto Hernandez is”, per Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs, reaffirms the sad state of affairs at 1 Citizens Bank Way. With a roster in flux and a determination to disappoint in 2014, the Philadelphia Phillies will have to rely on some prospects at some point in the upcoming season.

Naturally, the estimated time of arrival for the following prospects is hard to predict. Philadelphia’s front office is obstinate in making the roster work with its current configuration. No matter how humdrum the lineup appears, David Montgomery, Bill Giles and Ruben Amaro, Jr. will trot a band of 30-something’s out onto the diamond under the illusion that the team is built to be a contender now.

Most folks don’t have the wool pulled over their eyes though. 

The fact is the Phillies are not on the same level as the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals. Outside of their own division, other squads, such as the Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds appear much more viable as National League Wild Card contenders than the Phillies.

Still, hope remains in Philadelphia. The hope which engulfs Phillies Nation is banking on some of the up-and-coming prospects overachieving and proving the analysts at Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs wrong. 

If any of the following prospects emerge as efficient and productive Major League Baseball players, then the Phillies will be able to counter their apparent dismal roster construction with younger talent. However, finding space on the 25-man active roster for the following prospects will be tough with how it is projected to be assembled.

Let’s take a look at who could possibly help the Phils in 2014.

 

LHP Jesse Biddle

Widely regarded as the organization’s best pitcher, Biddle projects to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter. A local product born in Philly who attended Germantown Friends School, Biddle was drafted in the first round of the 2010 draft. 

With a four-pitch repertoire, the lefty has the savvy to be a force on the mound. His fastball and curveball grade out the best, but overall, his command has been iffy. Regarding his mechanics, many suggest Biddle still has some work to do. At 22 though, he still has some room to grow, especially since the Phillies added the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona.

Expectations for Biddle will likely be as high as they once were for Cole Hamels. While Biddle isn’t necessarily the prospect that Hamels was, the fact that Biddle is a local product from Mount Airy won’t suppress the excitement of his arrival.

 

RHP Ethan Martin

Martin landed in Philadelphia via the Shane Victorino-to-Los Angeles Dodgers trade in 2012. He was the first high school pitcher selected in the 2008 MLB draft. Martin appeared in 15 MLB games this past season where he proved his command was fallible. While putting up an earned run average of over six, Martin still managed to average more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

With a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, Martin can cruise through an at-bat so long as his pitch count remains low. The longer he is on the mound, the dicier he gets. The late break in his curveball shows promise, but Martin’s best secondary pitch is his changeup. 

Martin is likely to see the majors before Biddle this year. GM Amaro Jr. recently stated that Martin is expected to be “stretched out” during the spring, per Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, implying the Phillies are planning to use Martin as a starting pitcher. At the same time, Martin is likely to make his money as a reliever in the majors. 

 

3B Maikel Franco

The Phillies will give Cody Asche every opportunity to win the third base job this spring. While Asche could be considered a prospect, the fact he had 179 plate appearances last season removes the title from before his name. Still, as promising as Asche has looked at times, it is Franco who could be the better player. Only time will tell though.

As a right-handed hitter, Franco mashed 31 home runs in the minor leagues last year. The highest level of development he reached was Double-A though. With a strikeout percentage that is less than half of what Ryan Howard’s is, Franco does show some promise at the plate. Ironically enough though, Franco only walks 3.4 percent of the time.

For an organization short on right-handed hitting talent, Franco is a lock to get an opportunity to shine in spring training. However, he is expected to begin the year with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. If Asche fails to present himself as a viable everyday third baseman, Franco’s chances of being promoted increase drastically, so long as Franco himself continues to display power. 

 

Conclusion

At the end of the day, the Phillies farm system isn’t awash with talent. Roman Quinn, a speedy shortstop who showed tons of promise at the lower levels, ruptured his Achilles tendon early last month. One of the better prospects for Philadelphia, Quinn will take a major step back as he could miss all of 2014.

J.P. Crawford, the Philllies’ first overall pick of the 2013 MLB draft, is still a couple years away from the big leagues. He did win the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League batting crown, showing promise for the future.

Catcher Tommy Joseph is a virtual unknown as this point. While he appeared to be a strong candidate to open 2014 with the big league team, a concussion last May set him back considerably. 

Lefty Adam Morgan has an incredible slider, but that appears to be it. He was expected to be rushed along but with his faulty command and control, could see the entire 2014 season in the minors.

Carlos Tocci is another prospect who is much closer to Single-A than he is to the majors. Despite considerable upside in his bat and defense, the talk of him being a five-tool player is a bit premature. Signed when he was 16, he still has a long way to go.

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Philadelphia Phillies: A Closer Look at Domonic Brown’s Numbers Last Year

Much is being made of the Philadelphia Phillies‘ desire to trade left fielder Domonic Brown, as reported by Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan. A line in the sand has been drawn, and there are those who feel as if Brown is the keystone for the Phillies’ future while others are screaming sell, sell, sell!

Independent of where one stands on this issue, the fact remains that Brown burst out of a disappointing start to his career to have a breakout, All-Star season in 2013. In 540 at-bats, Brown smashed 27 home runs and drove in 83 runs.

His dinger tally put him alongside the likes of Mike Trout, Robinson Cano and Justin Upton for 17th most in Major League Baseball. He finished 34th in the big leagues, alongside Victor Martinez, with his 83 RBI. While Brown’s .272 AVG is nothing to write home about, it did place him at second among the Phillies’ qualifying hitters.

On the surface, Brown’s numbers don’t look all that bad. Sure, nearly half (12) of Brown’s HR total came in the month of May and they all landed in right field, but that doesn’t necessarily negate his production for the Phillies.

What does negate his production is when we look at what he did (or didn’t do) beyond the box score.

Among qualifying left fielders, Brown finished 2013 with the third-worst Wins Above Replacement (WAR). His 1.6 WAR ranked ahead of only Eric Young and Chris Carter. It compared to that of Daniel Nava (1.8) and Michael Brantley (1.6).

Brown’s on-base percentage (OBP) ranked 11th among the same group of qualifying left fielders. A walk rate of just 7.2 percent can be attributed to this. Walking in just about seven percent of his at-bats, Brown was slightly better than just four other qualifying left fielders. The worst was Starling Marte who tallied a 4.4 percent walk rate.

To make matters worse, Brown’s Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was second worst among this group. With a .287 BABIP, Brown finished 32 percentage points less than Chris Denorfia. 

In terms of Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), the Phillies’ lefty slugger finished with 123. Since the MLB average is 100, Brown finished slightly above average in this regard but 20 fewer than Matt Holliday and five fewer than Nava. Brown was closer to Marte in this measurement. 

Finally, Brown’s defensive WAR comes in at minus-15.9. Only four other left fielders come in worse, including Upton. However, there is a 26-defensive WAR difference between Brown and Gregor Blanco. Needless to say, Brown has his issues in left field.

The finer details to Brown’s production show us that he compares more favorably to the likes of Nava, Carter, Young and Marte than he does Holliday or Upton.

With such a small sample though, some outliers do emerge. Brown does look more favorably than Alex Gordon is some measurements. He even bests Yoenis Cespedes in others. However, it is his future projections that look more alarming. 

In just his first full season of MLB play, Brown looks to have already reached his ceiling. Projections for Brown’s traditional statistics look weaker than what he accumulated this past season. In addition to his decline, the descent elsewhere is likely the reason for the Phillies shopping him.

The upside to Brown is that he is under team control. This will make a deal for him look more likely but at the same time, the Phillies should not expect a top-of-the-farm pitching prospect in return. Brown’s statistical anomalies should be corrected as he gains more experience as an everyday piece of the lineup, be it in Philadelphia or elsewhere.

No one should fault Ruben Amaro Jr. for trying to sell Brown high. All indications point to Brown hitting his peak in 2013. If this is the case, the descent will be a long one for the 26-year-old. The fact that Brown may not be as good as Chris Young, a comparable player, was in 2007 through 2011 with the Arizona Diamondbacks is a telling sign.

Young has reached the point where he will likely be piggy-backing one-year deals throughout the next couple of years. What will Brown end up accomplishing production-wise? For whichever team he plays moving forward, production similar to Young’s aforementioned four-year span is the most desirable, even if it won’t necessarily be pretty.

The question for those looking at Brown as a possible piece in a trade with the Phillies is: What can Brown do for you?

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