Carlos Beltran’s Deal Makes Nelson Cruz to Philadelphia Phillies Possible

Jonathan Papelbon and Kyle Kendrick are on the trading block for a reason, and that reason’s name is Nelson Cruz. The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to find wiggle room financially so they can land another high-priced free agent or two.

Early speculation has the Phillies in on Matt Garza, Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez. With up to $26 million already available to be spent, deals involving Papelbon ($13 million) and Kendrick (projected $7 million) could free up another $20 million so long as the Phillies don’t have to consume any portion of Papelbon’s remaining deal.

The notion of having close to $46 million available to spend while we head into Major League Baseball’s winter meetings is appetizing for Phillies nation. With none of the aforementioned trio of pitchers expected to land a deal worth more than $15 million annually, a $31 million void remains.

Let’s suppose the Phillies do end up dealing Papelbon while swallowing $5 million of his annual salary. This would leave the Phillies with $26 million remaining before they encroach upon the luxury tax (after signing one of Garza, Santana or Jimenez, of course).

One major hypothetical question remains. Do the Phillies pursue Nelson Cruz?

Cruz’s asking price rests at $25 million per season. He is looking for a four-year deal. Lofty expectations aside, Cruz is also backed into a corner because he rejected a qualifying offer. This means that nearly two-thirds of MLB‘s organizations will be reluctant to sign Cruz to any deal because they would then lose their first-round selection in the 2014 MLB Draft.

One team that wouldn’t lose a pick is the Phillies.

Drafting seventh overall in next year’s draft, the Phillies can’t lose their first round pick by signing someone who was extended a qualifying offer because it is protected. This gives them a relative advantage over other organizations.

First, the Phillies have the capital to splurge on a riskier free agent like Cruz. Second, the Phillies don’t have to worry about losing their pick in next year’s draft. Finally, the Phillies are an organization that matches well with Cruz’s skill set.

Thanks to declining power from Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, the Phillies are in need of some extra muscle at the plate. They signed Marlon Byrd to a two-year deal worth $16 million (plus a third-year option) but Byrd can’t reasonably be expected to repeat his numbers from last year. 

Domonic Brown emerged as a power threat at the plate, but he is a left-handed hitter. As every fan knows, the Phillies need some might from the right side of the plate. 

With Carlos Beltran inking a deal with the New York Yankees for $15 million annually, one has to suspect that Cruz’s asking price will come down as we tread further into the winter. No organization can logically sign Cruz for $10 million more per season than Beltran received, even if Cruz will be three years younger than Beltran.

While Beltran’s deal makes Cruz more signable, many parts must move accordingly for it to work. With the organization tendering John Mayberry, the Phillies will have outfielders tripping over themselves.

Brown, Byrd, Ben Revere and Mayberry plus the addition of Cruz makes for a crowded outfield. Now let’s not fool ourselves, we know what the pecking order would be. 

Would the Phillies be willing to swallow their pride and realize the acquisition of Revere last winter was a mistake and move him? A lefty with no power in a lineup loaded with power deficient lefties makes no sense. Coming off of an injury makes Revere nearly untradeable though.

Domonic Brown simply cannot be traded. Despite some suggesting his 2013 emergence was a fluke, at 26-years-old, Brown is the only source of power the Phillies have under the age of 30, even if his production slows down moving forward.

The Phillies could look at moving Revere into a bench role and trading Mayberry for whatever they can get. This could open right field for Cruz. This is contingent on the Phillies trusting Byrd in center field. Byrd hasn’t started more than 100 games in center since 2011 with the Chicago Cubs though.

Despite sounding like such, Cruz-to-Philadelphia is not blind speculation. The Phillies have been linked to Cruz for some time. The odds of landing him remain pretty slim though. Too many pieces have to be moved in order for a Cruz deal to work.

However, Beltran’s deal does make Cruz’s $25 million asking price look salty. If one thing is certain, it is that Cruz’s asking price will come down somewhat. One thing that is not certain is whether or not the Phillies will dish out the juice to get him.

If the Phillies do sign Cruz, things will have to already have occurred or major changes will loom. First, Papelbon and/or Kendrick will have to have been dealt. Second, the Phillies would have moved or are planning to move Brown, Revere or Mayberry. Finally, the front office has to realize its lack of right-handed hitting power will not suffice in the near-term.

Switch-hitting Rollins, Byrd and Carlos Ruiz are the only projected 2014 starters who hit from the right side of the plate. Howard, Brown, Utley, Revere and Cody Asche all stand in the left batter’s box. Something has to change. One change that could boost the Phillies offense would be the signing of Cruz.

As friendly as his asking price might be in the aftermath of the Beltran-to-New York deal, don’t expect it to happen. There are too many moving parts involved.

 

 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Possible Landing Destinations for Jonathan Papelbon

A pivotal change could be looming for the Philadelphia Phillies and for once, it isn’t all bad.

Ken Rosenthal reported earlier that the Phillies are trying to trade closer Jonathan Papelbon in order to get out from under his contract. Handcuffed to a pricey contract that would make Nelson Rockefeller blush, Papelbon is owed $26 million over the next two seasons with a $13 million vesting option for 2016. 

Aside from the rich contract a team would inherit if they were to deal for Papelbon, things are made much more complicated due to the contentious atmosphere Papelbon is partly credited to bringing into the Phillies clubhouse.

So who would be interested in an overpriced reliever who is beyond his prime and known to bring a party pooper’s attitude into a clubhouse?

Realistically speaking, only time will tell.

It is true that many clubs are looking to bolster their bullpen but as we see with the Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves, teams have found a more cost-effective way to do so.

Therefore it is highly unlikely that Papelbon is dealt without the Phillies swallowing a major portion of his contract. 

Papelbon’s velocity has declined for two years in a row. At 33-years old, he is no longer the young pup with the ferocious competitiveness that we once saw in Fenway Park. From 2006-09, Papelbon averaged 38 saves per season on top of a 1.74 ERA and 10.73 K/9 rate.

From 2010 through 2012, Papelbon’s numbers slowly trended downward. In those three seasons, he averaged a 3.09 ERA to go along with 35 saves per year.

Things appeared to hit rock bottom in 2013. For the first time in his career as a closer, Papelbon failed to reach 30 saves. He managed to finish with a respectable 2.92 ERA, but a meager K/9 rate of 8.32. 2013 was the first year the righty failed to strike out at least nine batters per nine innings.

Needless to say, Papelbon is trending in the wrong direction.

On the other hand, the remainder of his contract is comparable to that of Joe Nathan—who recently signed with the Detroit Tigers.

So once again, who would take on the challenge of reforming Papelbon into one of Major League Baseball’s elite closers?

First and foremost, the New York Yankees should be considered as potential trade partners. For starters, the Yankees’ farm system is nothing to write home about, but they would be doing the Phillies a favor by helping take Papelbon off of their books.

Mariano Rivera has retired and the Yankees still are floundering with regard to who will handle the closing duties. While it appears that David Robertson is primed to take over the ninth inning for the Bronx Bombers, nothing is yet written in stone.

Robertson will turn 29 this April. He has just 8 career saves under his belt. While he has turned into one of baseball’s most prolific relievers, nobody can be certain he has the guts it takes to lock down the final three outs of a ballgame.

Another possible destination for Papelbon is the Texas Rangers. With Nathan moving on to Motown, the Rangers are stuck in a tough situation. They are likely to lean on oft-injured Neftali Feliz to be their closer, but Tanner Scheppers is another in-house possibility.

Making a deal work between the Rangers and Phillies would be a daunting task. The Rangers are likely unwilling to be left on the hook for all of Papelbon’s remaining contract. Therefore, the Phillies would have to be willing to eat a majority of the remaining deal and possibly the entirety of Papelbon’s vesting option should it kick in for 2016. Such a scenario doesn’t make much financial sense for Philadelphia.

Finally, the Seattle Mariners appear to be all hands on deck. After signing Robinson Cano and apparently being in the mix for David Price, the M’s could use a solid option to solidify their bullpen.

Seattle blew the seventh most saves in 2013 (23), so the bullpen is in flux. The conundrum plaguing Seattle is an attempt to become relevant for the first time since Lou Piniella was the manager.

Speculation aside, it is going to be difficult for the Phillies to move Papelbon. The deal he was signed to a couple of winters ago is decimating the Phillies’ potential to move forward. 

If anything, it is another indictment on the front office in Philadelphia. The contracts given to Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Mike Adams look bad, but so does Papelbon’s. It will take a lot to move Papelbon this offseason. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Pursuing a Top-of-the-Market Starting Pitcher Is Wrong

The Philadelphia Phillies are a wet paper bag getting punched with a fistful of scissors.

If the direction of the organization is to field a veteran team with aging souls while rebuilding a bankrupt farm system, then it would behoove the Phillies to continue their stride towards the basement of the National League. 

If that is not the intent of the front office, then by any means, spend more money on a starting pitcher who will not give lasting production equivalent to his price tag.

On the other hand, stinking up the joint for a few years while building something comparable to what the Phillies had between 2006-11 would be well worth it. It wouldn’t be cost efficient to splurge on another pitcher earning $10 to $16 million per annum, so long as the realistic ceiling of the Phillies is placing third in the division behind the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals.

However, Philadelphia Daily News staff writer David Murphy, one of the gems of Philadelphia’s media, is speculating that “indications” exist for the Phillies to consider “a bid” for Ervin Santana, Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez. 

While the Phillies have yet to splurge on any free agent, Murphy concludes the Phillies have “roughly $26 million to spend before reaching the $189 million luxury tax threshold.” Admittedly, Murphy isn’t so sure the Phillies want to tip-toe towards the threshold. 

With up to $26 million to spend, the Phillies could more than reasonably afford Santana, Garza or Jimenez. According to MLB Trade Rumors, contract expectations for the aforementioned three are as follows: 

• Ervin Santana: five years/$75 million ($15 million annually)
• Matt Garza: four years/$60 million ($15 million annually)
• Ubaldo Jimenez: four years/$52 million ($13 million annually)

On the surface, contracts such as those aren’t exactly appetizing for the Phillies. Signing one of the three would bring some level of excitement to the fanbase, but at the end of the day, either one of the trio could prove to be what we thought they were to begin with.

Santana is nearing his 31st birthday. He had three incredible seasons where he pitched lights out for the Los Angeles Angels. In 2006 the righty finished 16-8 with a 4.28 ERA and 4.29 FIP.

Two years later, Santana would re-emerge after a dismal 2007 to finish with a 16-7 record. This same year would be the pinnacle of Santana’s career as a strikeout artist. He finished with a K/9 of 8.79. 2008 is still the only instance in his nine-year career that Santana has finished with a K/9 above 7.57.

In 2010, Santana finished a 3.92 ERA and 17-10 record. 

Other than the three previously mentioned seasons, Santana has finished with an average win-loss record of 9-11 and 4.53 ERA. FIP, which is a stronger indicator of how well Santana has pitched due to its fielding and defensive variables, has been less friendlier than Santana’s ERA. For the right-handed pitcher’s career, he has a 4.36 FIP.

Matt Garza’s recent string of injuries seem to have no impact on his current market value. Garza has appeared in just 259 innings over the last two seasons. Historically speaking, Garza does provide stability on the mound, so long as he doesn’t reignite the health concerns that have plagued him lately. 

Since his first full season in the majors, Garza has yet to finish with a 4.00 ERA or greater. His career K/9 of 7.62 is down below his average K/9 over the last three seasons (8.38 K/9). The bottom line is that the righty continues to strike out batters at a higher-than-average clip. On the other hand, Garza has pitched more than 200 innings just twice in his MLB career (2009 and 2010). 

At 30 years of age, Garza is a high-risk, high-reward signing. The Phillies have the financial ability to deliver on a $15 million per year contract, but for a right-handed pitcher with durability issues, it may not be a wise decision.

Finally, Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off of a 2013 campaign that was reminiscent of his 2010 NL Cy Young-worthy season. Unfortunately, the track record is not there for the soon-to-be 30-year old righty. He is a year removed from a 9-17 campaign where he finished with a 5.40 ERA. His FIP for 2012 sat at 5.06 so bad luck really didn’t play a part in his atrocious season. The year prior, Jimenez was almost as bad, finishing with a 4.68 ERA though bad luck did play a role in his high ERA (3.67 ERA).

Still, Jimenez has sparkled just once since his 19-win season in 2010 with Colorado. His strikeout rate jumped to nearly 10 Ks per nine innings pitched in 2013, a career high. A cloud of excitement can’t pervade everybody when discussing whether or not Jimenez is back to the level of pitching he exercised in 2008 through 2010. 

Regardless, the overall outlook for the Phillies looks dim. Sure, signing one of the three pitchers mentioned would arouse more interest for an organization with declining attendance rates. Aside from less fans filling out Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies still remain a heavily backed financial player in Major League Baseball. The question is whether or not one of these arms can help put the Phillies over the top.

Speaking in the short term, there is no doubt that the Phillies would be better with Santana, Garza or Jimenez. For the long haul though, an eventual decline will lead to hindsight provocation. After all, it’s not like the Phillies are paying for an ace in either of these three. Rather, they are paying for a middle of the rotation guy, and the contract is likely to expand into his waning years as a pitcher.

It is a conundrum the Phillies face and must tackle head on. If they are poised to begin developing their farm system, it might behoove the Phillies to compete with what they have now and hope for some over-achievement on the field of play. If not, then the Phillies should pursue one of these three arms and hope they aren’t regretting the decision to do so three years from now.

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Philadelphia Phillies: A Revolution Manifesto Against Ruben Amaro Jr.

As time continues to tick by, the present, unchanging, never-ending tenure of Ruben Amaro Jr. as general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies will plague the organization well into the latter half of this decade.

Overpriced contracts, comical vesting options and other various head scratching decisions from Amaro have negated the feel that many Phillies fans had in 2006 when they knew their team was on the verge of something great. A feeling that shouldn’t have subsided so quick, since the Phillies have been awash in Benjamin Franklin’s, but a feeling that has turned numb due to complacent idiocy with no regard towards tomorrow.

Today, Phillies fans know their team is on the verge of something awful.

Phillies nation is inundated with fans that know their baseball. They know about conventional numbers and advanced metrics. These folk understand what it takes to build a winner from the ground up because for so long, they have been looking up from under the soles of the Atlanta Braves. 

There is one thing fans in baseball hate—knowing that their franchise has no shot to win over the course of a multi-year time span. Understanding the payroll, farm system and front office are in shambles is what brings fans to the stadium with paper bags over their heads. 

Another thing fans of baseball hate is when they are being lied to. That is exactly what Amaro continues to do to the Phillies fan base.

His comments, whether in print or on air, about having a team that can compete for an N.L. pennant in 2014 are blatant lies. They are laughable. Everybody knows that the Phillies are designed to be abysmal in 2014.

First off, the production on the field will not match the price tag that accompanies the roster.

As I noted several weeks ago, the defensive production (or lack thereof) is reminiscent of something I would find in The Exorcist. 

Secondly, the anemic offense will continue to allow fans to flock to the gates by the turn of the seventh inning. As FanGraphs notes, the Phillies offense combined for a 6.2 Wins Above Replacement in 2013. Only the Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros and Miami Marlins were worse.

So how did Philadelphia get to the point of having a bottom-feeding defense and offense?

It begins with the apathetic regard towards Amaro. The general manager needs to take blame for preserving a cast of has-been’s. However, the fans must take blame too. The boisterous minority who continue to drum beat for the Phillies, who place blind faith in Amaro‘s decision making, need to take blame for the maintenance of the status quo. 

These same fans who rail against anyone who dares to speak the truth about the sad state of affairs at Citizen’s Bank Park need a gut check. Unfortunately, their opaque blinders disallow them to see the crisis in South Philly. These homers are virtually running towards the front line with zero ammo and no regard for the land mines under their feet.

At least they are outfitted with the newest Phillies hat and Marlon Byrd jersey.

The majority of us have already prepared. We have our bunkers outfitted with stashes of bottled water, MREs and Shane Victorino bobbleheads. We knew what the signal was from the get-go. We understand that we will be hunkered down below the terrain for the next several years while the zombies continue to feast on whoever buys the hype of the Amaro gravy train.

We will not trade in our love for the Phillies. Rather, we will be armed for the takeover once the walls of Amaro come tumbling down. We will patiently wait for the arrival of J.P. Crawford, for the healing of Roman Quinn and cross our fingers to score the next Kris Bryant or Mark Appel in a couple years.

Until then, we will be sitting with our arms crossed, staring belligerently into the eyes of the Phillie Phanatic as we wait for baseball’s greatest mascot to pelt Amaro with his Hatfield Hot Dog gun until Amaro has realized he is no longer welcome in Philadelphia.

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Phillies: How Ruben Amaro Jr. Assembled a Collection of Defensive Misfits

Baseball fans in Philadelphia would like to see general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. exiled to the same lonely island as Pete Rose. If anything, a one-for-one swap of Rose for Amaro Jr. would be more encouraging. After all, the doom-and-gloomers of Phillies baseball lore were right—things are bad for Philly, and it’s only going to get worse.

Months ago I wrote that it’s “time to change course” with Amaro Jr. and the Phillies organization. The personnel decisions have become highly questionable. This past season, the Phillies were second in declining attendance. While revenue jumped by $30 million from 2012, its operating income settled in at $600,000 for 2013, down from $14.5 million in 2010. Simply put, the Phillies are heading in the wrong direction financially and on the field.

Much has been ballyhooed about the lack of offensive production in the Phillies lineup. Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard have become shells of their former selves. Ben Revere has never had a Major League home run. The now departed Carlos Ruiz had one bombastic season, but he was using performance enhancing drugs.

While Chase Utley continues to stay the course, many are wondering how much longer he can perform at his current rate.

Domonic Brown emerged as an offensive threat, but some are wondering if he can match or exceed his 2013 numbers in 2014. Additionally, fans in Philly are inflamed with Brown over his actions off the field, including when he tweeted “Philly doesn’t love me.”

The question marks on offense are not the most important factors in the demise of the Phillies though. On defense, they are one of the worst units in baseball.

In 2013, the Phillies were dead last in defensive runs saved with -103. To put this in perspective, the Kansas City Royals were tops with 92. The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants split the median with 10 and 6, respectively. The next worse after the Phillies were the Seattle Mariners with -97. After that a huge drop-off occurs. The Detroit Tigers ranked 28th in Major League Baseball with -63.

How is it that the Phillies, ranked 30th in MLB, were 40 defensive runs saved worse than the 28th worst in baseball? Let’s take a look at each position individually.

Since he only started 74 games due to injury, first baseman Ryan Howard doesn’t qualify as a regular first baseman in the final tally for runs saved. However, his statistics indicate that he would have fallen below the median set by Royals’ 1B Eric Hosmer (3). Howard sat at -1 in defensive runs saved. This was worse than Mark Trumbo and Todd Helton. Only four qualifying 1B regulars fared worse than Howard.

Chase Utley finished with -4 in defensive runs saved. This tally puts him at sixth worst among regular second basemen. Marco Scutaro, Rickie Weeks and Dan Uggla were all worse than Utley while Gordon Beckham, Howie Kendrick and Brian Dozier finished better.

While he only played with the Phillies for 126 games before being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Michael Young accumulated the worst defensive runs saved mark among all third basemen in MLB. At -20, a 55 run difference existed between him and 3B leader Manny Machado. Even Todd Frazier, who is not known to be a phenom defensively, finished with a rating of 25 points better than Young.

At shortstop, Jimmy Rollins was third worst in all of baseball with -15. Only better than Asdrubal Cabrera and Jed Lowrie, Rollins was seven points worse than the player in front of him (Omar Quintanilla). Starlin Castro, who made headlines with his horrifying defense, scored seven points better than Rollins as well.

In left field, Domonic Brown finished with -7. This was 23 points worse than the leader Starling Marte. Only three qualifying left fielders finished worse than the breakout star of the Phillies. Known as “the Tank” for his size and lack of speed, Dayan Viciedo finished two runs better than Brown in defensive runs saved for ’13.

Known for having only warning track power and a little league arm, Ben Revere finished with a -5 in center field. Revere didn’t qualify as a regular in CF due to a season-ending injury, but if he had, Revere would have better than just five qualifying regulars at the position. Dexter Fowler, Adam Jones and B.J. Upton all performed better.

Among right fielders, Delmon Young was tied for third worst in defensive runs saved (-19). That is a 58 run swing from the MLB leader Gerardo Parra. We all know how Young’s season ended in Philadelphia but that isn’t the point. The point is that he was brought in and everyone knew what to expect—everyone but Amaro Jr.

Essentially, Amaro Jr. put together a collection of defensive misfits. There is no sure-fire way to assume what an improved win total would look like had the Phillies not tallied a -103 defensive runs saved mark. One can assume though, had the Phillies cut that total in half, the likelihood of finishing with more than 73 wins increases dramatically.

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Forecasting the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies: Domonic Brown, Youth Solidify Lineup

The shock emanating from the disastrous last year-and-a-half have many Phillies fans scratching their heads wondering what the future holds.

Unless traded at some point this summer, Chase Utley, Michael Young, Carlos Ruiz and Delmon Young are among the everyday Philadelphia players set to hit free agency in 2014.

As the non-waiver trade season heats up, Utley and Michael Young are among the cast of players in demand. The market is thin for catcher Ruiz, but Zach Links of MLB Trade Rumors.com believes the New York Yankees could be a possible destination for the 34-year-old backstop.

Meanwhile, absolutely no market exists for Delmon Young. Reserve player Laynce Nix is set to part ways with Philadelphia following the season as well.

Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. recently declared his intention of keeping Utley “in our uniform for the rest of his career, if possible.” However, Utley would be 35 years old in 2014, far from the ripe spring chicken he was when the Phillies brought home the Commissioner’s Trophy in 2008.

According to FanGraphs, Utley’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) has drastically fell from his peak seasons of 2008-09, going from 8.0 to 2.5 in 2013. The annual reduction in WAR is attributed to the multitude of injuries which run concurrent to his rapid aging on the diamond. 

Needless to say, Utley is no longer as indispensable as he once was. Rather, he should be auctioned off to the highest bidder in order to net the most profitable return in terms of prospects. The same can be said of the fluttering Young and Ruiz.

With the aforementioned changes considered, what does the future hold for Philadelphia?

There are four things we do know. First, Ryan Howard is not going anywhere. Second, Jimmy Rollins will be back to man shortstop. Third, Domonic Brown is the best thing going for the Phillies moving forward. Finally, Ben Revere is here to stay at center field.

In a perfect world, Cody Asche would be ready to man the hot corner next April with Tommy Joseph making plays behind the plate. Cesar Hernandez appears to be the near-term heir apparent to Utley.

After being named to the International League all-star squad, both Asche and Hernandez are expected to see “a bit more development time” in the minors before they are expected to reach the majors. 

On the other hand, Joseph continues to have setbacks with tje concussion he suffered on May 4, landing back on the disabled list. If the Joseph’s concussion proves to be as detrimental as the concussion suffered by Justin Morneau and Brian Roberts, Joseph may have a long way to go in returning to the potential he showed when he came to Philadelphia in the Hunter Pence trade last year.

Without a plethora of special talent expected to be available in free agency, the Phillies may have to look inward in order to round out their lineup next season. 

Without further ado, here is the projected lineup for the Phillies in 2014. 

1. CF Ben Revere (L)
2. 2B Cesar Hernandez (S)*
3. SS Jimmy Rollins (S)
4. 1B Ryan Howard (L)
5. LF Domonic Brown (L)
6. RF John Mayberry (R)*
7. 3B Cody Asche (L)
8. C John Buck (R)**

Obviously, the Phillies would have a serious power problem at the top of their lineup. Hernandez has already seen 28 plate appearances with the Phillies, but he is more useful defensively. If he can develop a better bat, he is a seamless fit for the No. 2 hole in 2014. 

Of course, the Phillies could pursue a second baseman in free agency if they choose to let Utley walk (or he is traded). However, the group of potential free agent second basemen is less than thrilling. Why offer Alexi Casilla a contract when Hernandez can provide the same projected numbers at a much more inexpensive and efficient cost?

Let’s not forget that Freddy Galvis remains a candidate for second base as well. Owning an outstanding glove, Galvis could be useful at certain points, but his .217 batting average is putrid. 

Meanwhile, Mayberry can be projected to platoon in right field. His position in the lineup can be attributed to the fact that the Phillies lack right-handed hitters. Minor leaguer Darin Ruf is an option here, but his defense remains suspect. 

The Phillies are expected to pursue an outfielder in the offseason, and lefty Ryan Sweeney could be a possibility to fill a void in situational hitting.

For projection purposes, the Phillies are likely to pursue catching help via free agency. With Ruiz’s contract set to expire, the only immediate internal options are Erik Kratz and Humberto Quintero. Joseph is highly unlikely to open 2014 as the Phillies’ starting catcher and the combination of Kratz and Quintero is negligible at best.

The options to make a big splash in free agency are simply not there for the Phillies. While Robinson Cano is expected to remain with the Yankees, Carlos Beltran and Nelson Cruz could be pursued, but they are likely to demand more money than the Phillies will be willing to shell out. Both sluggers are on the wrong side of 30 and come with potential injury issues.

If anything, Phillies fans can look forward to 2014 as being another stage in the rebuilding process in Philadelphia while lingering reminders of the franchise’s recent glorious past continue to take the field.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Blame for the Woes Must Be Placed on Ruben Amaro Jr.

In recent days, much has been ballyhooed about the Philadelphia Phillies standing in the National League East division. At five games below .500 and nine-and-a-half games from the division leading Atlanta Braves, fans are clamoring for the Phillies to sell their most esteemed pieces in order to gain in the future with highly regarded prospects.

However, the Phillies are right where they were expected to be. Only those with blinders on would have expected more. With Ruben Amaro Jr. at the helm of arranging this roster, only more of the same can be expected so long as he’s the general manager.

For instance, the starting rotation leads Major League Baseball with 55 quality starts (QS). For comparison’s sake, the Washington Nationals have 46 QS while the Pittsburgh Pirates have tallied 38 QS. 

The Earned Run Average (ERA) of the starting pitchers for Philadelphia is 4.03. Compared to the rest of MLB, this is average. However, the Phillies’ starters Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.75 is near the top in MLB. According to FanGraphs, FIP “measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average.”

FIP suggests we should take a look at the Revised Zone Rating (RZR) which measures “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out.” A strong indicator of defensive performance beyond the pitching, RZR is indicative of the woes that can plague a good pitching staff backed by inadequate defense in the field.

Philadelphia ranks 24th in MLB in RZR (.826). Aside from the New York Yankees (ranked 25th), the other five teams worse in this category sit with sub-.500 win-loss records. They include the Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers.

Defense hasn’t been the only liability for the Phillies.

The relievers bode a 4.60 ERA, slotted in as the second worst in all of MLB. Unlike the Phillies starting rotation though, this high ERA cannot be hitched to poor defense. After all, the bullpen’s FIP is third worst in baseball at 4.39. They also have the third worst Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at -0.8.

The Phillies hitting has been abysmal as well. Despite a power surge from Domonic Brown, the lineup ranks 22nd in WAR (7.2). Comparatively speaking, the Chicago Cubs (8.8), Kansas City Royals (9.5) and San Diego Padres (13.0) all fare better in this metric.

The team’s batting average of .255 is near the league median and their strikeout rate is average. However, the Phillies sluggers have showed little patience at the plate, boasting one of the league’s worst walk rates (6.9 percent).

Simply put, the current makeup of the roster is not working out. Chase Utley, Michael Young and Carlos Ruiz are all set to be free agents following the season. It would make sense for Amaro Jr. to deal these players. Since they are not helping place the Phillies in serious contention, why not give the likes of Cesar Hernandez, Cody Asche and Tommy Joseph extended looks as we crawl through the summer?

On top of that, it would behoove the Phillies to unload the contract of closer Jonathan Papelbon. The 32-year-old is set to earn $13 million per annum through 2015 with a vesting option for 2016. At the same time, Pirates closer Jason Grilli will earn $2.5 million this year and $4 million next. Yes, the same Grilli that Amaro Jr. cut in 2011 has gone on to become one of the best closers in baseball.

For now, it would seem that any team willing to take Papelbon off of the Phillies would be reluctant to do so unless the Phils are willing to eat some of the salary owed to the closer. This might be a significant hurdler to overcome.

In regard to ace Cliff Lee, it would be foolish to deal him now. Despite the $25 million per year he will be owed through 2015 (with a club option for 2016), Lee is more valuable to the Phillies than he would be should they attain prospects via trade. 

Why?

In reality, the Phillies are still not stuck between a rock and a hard place. Sure, they have no hope of winning the World Series in 2013 but a looming television deal could increase their potential to bring in better talent in the very near future.

The trust factor is nonexistent with general manager Amaro Jr., though. Remember, he was the same GM that thought bringing Jim Thome into a NL ballpark was a good idea (skipper Charlie Manuel signed off on that, too).

Amaro Jr. is also the one who orchestrated the $50 million contract for Papelbon. In regard to this, the average 2013 salary of the top eight closers (aside from Mariano Rivera) in terms of saves is $3.98 million. The list includes Grilli, Craig Kimbrel, Edward Mujica, Ernesto Frieri and Addison Reed.

Quite frankly, paying a reliever not named Mo Rivera is asinine since the Grillis and Mujicas of the baseball world continue to prove over and over again inflated valuation of the closer role is nonsensical.

Speaking of sense, the only way to make any of the Phillies 2013 campaign is to point the finger at Amaro Jr. He engineered the roster his way and it has simply not worked. As many have been saying since last season, it is time to change course–not only with the roster but with the management as well.

Statistics and metrics sourced from Fangraphs.

Salary information sourced from SpoTrac.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Mismanagement Has Rendered the Club Insignificant

Such a Herculean task it is to dissect the Philadelphia Phillies nowadays. 

Nearly two months into the season, the Phillies continue to hug a sub-.500 record. Meanwhile, the front office continues to debate on whether or not their supposed plan is being implemented appropriately. 

Whatever plan general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has for this club is not working. Simply put, he is at the forefront of the blame while skipper Charlie Manuel should be ousted for his debilitated decision-making.

A perfect example of the adverse decision-making on behalf of the Phillies skipper can be seen Tuesday night, when the Fightins square off against the Miami Marlins.

In 13 innings versus the Phils, Marlins pitcher Jose Fernandez has yet to allow a run scored while giving up just three hits. Of those three hits Fernandez has permitted, two came off the bat of the switch-hitting utility man Freddy Galvis. 

Despite the small sample size, it is evident that Galvis has had the most success any Phillie has had against Fernandez to date. However, he will be on the bench in this affair.

Instead, outfielder Delmon Young will get the nod.

Young is baseball’s version of Napoleon Dynamite when it comes to defense. He is also struggling to stay above the Mendoza Line, batting-wise. 

It’s not like Amaro Jr. and Manuel have to be committed to Young. After all, Young is on a one-year contract worth a thrifty $750,000. 

So what gives? 

At the end of the day, the Phillies’ decision to sit Galvis against Fernandez in favor of D. Young is representative of the porous decision-making the club has made over the course of the last two seasons.

Naysayer’s with pie-in-the-sky attitudes will point out that the Phillies are a good series or two away from overtaking first place in the National League East.

Never mind their record against sub-.500 clubs as opposed to clubs with winning records.

Never mind the fact they have yet to take on the Washington Nationals.

Let’s get one thing clear: The Phillies are in decline. Anybody who says otherwise is likely to still believe in the Tooth Fairy.

The window of opportunity to repeat the feat from 2008 closed in 2011. The door slammed shut when the Phillies gave up a 2-1 series lead over the St. Louis Cardinals. The nails were hammered in the coffin when the Phillies surged late last year only to have their postseason hopes dashed in a series sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros.

In-game mismanagement by Manuel coupled with questionable personnel decisions from Amaro Jr. have rendered the Phillies insignificant. 

The sad reality is that the organization continues to string its fanbase along in similar fashion to the Philadelphia 76ers. After trading for center Andrew Bynum (and his two bad knees), Sixers ownership led fans down a path, all season long, to think that Bynum could play at some point.

As everyone knows, Bynum never debuted. 

The Phillies will not make the playoffs, either.

The point is that the Phillies organization has made terrible decision after terrible decision. Sure, hindsight is always 20/20. Unfortunately, some of the moves the Phillies have made were called into question at the time they occurred.

For instance, the decision to trade Vance Worley and prospect Trevor May to Minnesota has turned out to be atrocious. Sure, Worley has been horrible for the Twins, but nobody could have forecast that at the time. So long as May develops into a serviceable No. 4 or 5 pitcher in the majors, the Twins soundly defeated the Phillies in this trade.

One has to wonder: Whose bright idea was it to trade arms for Major League Baseball’s leader in ground-ball rate?

Regardless, the doom and gloom in South Philly is real. Fans oblivious to the mismanagement of this club can continue to think the Phillies have a shot to contend. Those who understand reality will just sit back, elbows crossed, and watch everything unfold for the worst.

Prior to the start of the season, many with realistic expectations believed the Phillies were an above-.500 club with a decent chance at cracking the postseason, even in the NL East.

Those expectations have now been altered. More likely than not, one can expect the Phillies to finish with a losing record for the first time since 2002. That was the year when Nelly’s “Hot in Herre“ could be heard on every radio station in America, George W. Bush was still in his first term as president and the United States had not yet invaded Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

As Charlie Chapman once said: “In the end, everything is a gag.” Words couldn’t speak truer for the current state of the Phillies.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Potential Trade Partners for Chase Utley

The Philadelphia Phillies have been somewhat of a pleasant surprise thus far. Despite sitting two games below .500, the Fightin‘ Phils are only three-and-a-half games out of first place in the National League East.

To some, suggesting the Phillies should be sellers at this point in the season may seem asinine. However, their current standing is more illusory than anything as they have struggled mightily against teams with winning records. Don’t forget they have yet to face the Washington Nationals.

One of their largest chips is second baseman Chase Utley. In the final year of his deal, Utley is hitting .289 with a team-high 24 RBI. His seven home runs are tied with Domonic Brown for most on the club.

For many, the prospect of seeing Utley in another uniform is surreal. He was at the core of the 2008 World Series championship team. A few years prior, he was the reason why Placido Polanco was dealt to the Detroit Tigers. Needless to say, if anyone has been the face of this franchise, it’s been Utley.

It wasn’t too long ago when many women were walking around Citizens Bank Park wearing pink shirts stating they are Utley’s “girlfriend.” Everyone remembers when the late, great Harry Kalas declared, “Chase Utley, you are the man!”

Utley is to the Phillies what cheesesteaks are to Philadelphia. 

On the other hand, nothing lasts forever. 

2013 is the first season since 2010 where the 34-year-old appears to be at full health. Prior to this season, Utley’s numbers were on a serious decline. Such facts makes one wonder as to whether this is a contract-year surge. Regardless, the increased production is the primary motivator to move Utley while the organization can attain as much in return as possible.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at Utley’s potential suitors. 

 

Baltimore Orioles

Sure, the Orioles may be more inclined to pursue rotational depth that is more on par with that of the other top-flight teams in the American League. However, the production they have received from second base has been abysmal. 

Ryan Flaherty is hitting a putrid .140 in 98 plate appearances. His two HR and six RBI don’t make up for his 23.5 percent strikeout rate. While Flaherty usually faces right-handed pitching, his current Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 0.0 highlights the fact that he is doing nothing for the O’s. Absolutely nothing.

The other option Baltimore has at second base is Alexi Casilla. The soon-to-be 29-year-old has never proven to be much of a hitter. His career year came in 2008 with the Minnesota Twins, but his production then was rather unflattering. 

What would the Phillies receive in return? Stud prospects Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman are out of the question. With a top-heavy farm system, the optimal return would include righty Branden Kline and outfielder Glynn Davis. 

 

Kansas City Royals

If this organization is serious about making a run into late October, it would behoove them to consider Utley. Put simply, their second base situation is ugly. 

They are platooning Elliot Johnson and Chris Getz. Johnson is striking out one in nearly every three at bats, while Getz is hitting an appalling .193. Between the two, they have two HR, 10 RBI and 21 runs scored in 46 games.

There isn’t much to look forward to within the farm system either. The Royals are currently 19-17 and one-and-a-half games behind the first place Detroit Tigers. The overall lineup has underachieved. Utley would give the squad more prowess at the plate.

The Royals made headlines by dealing super prospect Wil Myers to Tampa Bay prior to the start of the season. Stud prospects Kyle Zimmer and Bubba Starling can’t be seriously considered in an exchange for Utley. However, the Phillies would be pleased if they received lefty John Lamb or shortstop Orlando Calixte in return.

 

Oakland Athletics

Even though they are one game below .500, the A’s are in prime position to compete for the AL West or a wild-card berth. Unfortunately, Eric Sogard is not the answer at second base.

Next week Sogard will turn 27. Since 2010, he has had several brief stints in the majors. While he makes decent contact, his .233 batting average is far from stellar. He has very little power to speak of as well.

For the second consecutive year, Scott Sizemore has torn the ACL in his left knee. Oakland can’t look inward since they have very little hope in terms of finding a replacement for Sogard in the minors. Therefore, Utley would be a solid fit for a franchise looking to make its first consecutive trip to the playoffs since 2000-03.

In a deal for Utley, the Phillies could expect to receive the likes of righty Nolan Sanburn, lefty Pedro Figueroa or outfielder Michael Taylor. Neither of these three prospects has tremendous upside but they would foot the bill in exchange for Utley.

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Philadelphia Phillies Need to Let the Fire Sale Begin, Starting with Cliff Lee

From 1994 through 2001, nobody really wanted to play in Philadelphia.

The organization was a mess.

The clubhouse was not very enlightening.

The team couldn’t win ballgames.

Sure, the likes of Scott Rolen were there. But every Philadelphia Phillies fan knows how that turned out.

As Jayson Stark noted in his book Worth the Wait, the detrimental nature of the inner workings of the Phillies during that span created an apathetic atmosphere toward baseball. Losing was accepted and nobody took credit for the blame.

Not the free-swinging Bobby Abreu. Not Larry Bowa. Not the young Jimmy Rollins.

It wouldn’t be until several years later when the culture would change and the road to a World Series victory parade would be paved. 

Fast forward to 2013. The Phillies are no longer a World Series threat, let alone contenders in their own division. The sky hasn’t quite fallen, but multiple blunders are driving the perception that the Charlie Manuel era is coming to an end. Fans are still seeking out hope that a break here or there will propel the Phillies back into legitimacy. 

But the sad reality is that no breaks are coming for the Phillies. The climb will only get steeper and the hurdles will only get taller. 

Following Wednesday night’s blowout loss to the Cleveland Indians, Phillies hurler Cliff Lee said the team needs “to have a little more pride.” At 12-16, the Phillies are five-and-a-half games out of first place in the National League East division.

I am not sure if pride will win the Phillies more games or not.

Seven of the 12 Phillies wins came against the New York Mets and Miami Marlins. Of the 16 losses, the Phillies fell to the Atlanta Braves (twice), Kansas City Royals (twice), Cincinnati Reds (three-game sweep), St. Louis Cardinals (twice), Pittsburgh Pirates (three times) and Cleveland Indians (two-game sweep). The other two losses came against the Mets and Marlins.

Put simply, the Phillies can’t beat good baseball teams. The Mets and Marlins have a combined winning percentage of .432. The other six clubs the Phillies faced and lost 14 games to boast a combined winning percentage of .565. 

It is just May, though. No one can seriously consider selling the team off at such an early juncture in the season, right?

Wrong.

With a minor league system that has consistently failed to get prospects ranked in the top-50 lists of Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus over the course of the last two seasons, something needs to change. 

The Phillies must begin with lefty Lee. Aside from the admiration Phillies fans have for Lee, his $25 million per annum contract through 2015 (with a club option or buyout for ’16) is no longer commensurate with the club’s current situation. Of current players on the roster, Lee will fetch the largest return.

Everyone can see which way the wind is blowing in Philadelphia, whether they admit it or not. The month of May is the perfect time to start working out prospective deals for the left-handed pitcher. By June, he should no longer be in a Phillies uniform.

The Phillies are a better team with Lee, but they are not a good enough team with him, either.

The run the Phillies had since 2007 was fascinating, but the club needs a makeover. It’s unfortunate that Lee never got to hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy on Broad Street. But at the end of the day, it’s time for reality to set in. A new direction must be undertaken in order for Phillies fans to feel the way they did in 2008.

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