10 More Steps for Philadelphia Phillies to Reclaim MLB Throne

The temptation to take an unlikely premise for success and sarcastically run with it—”throw Chase Utley in the Wayback Machine and set it to 2006″ or “throw Ryan Howard 1,000,000 left-handed sliders until he is immune from their hypnotic effects”—is great.

For that matter, there is also “petition Bud Selig to move the Phillies from the National League Eastern Division, where they are third-best, to a more hospitable division like the National League Central.”

But we deal in reality here.

So if the Phillies are going to take this semi-broken-down, paying-too-much-money-to-almost-shot-players team to the promised land, extreme measures are not just in play—they are the only way home.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Free Agents Phils Must Jump on Before They’re Gone Too

The Philadelphia Phillies still have holes to fill and the number of useful free agents is dwindling. Quality free agents are coming off the board in rapid succession.

Further, there is the unshakeable feeling that if the Phillies were positioned to spend a lot of money on a big-ticket free agent, it would have happened by now. That it has not happened suggests strongly that it will not happen.

Center field was long thought to be where the Phillies would spend free-agent dollars this offseason. With the recent acquisition of Ben Revere, though, center field figures to be covered for a few years.

Revere should help defensively, but he adds another left-handed bat to a predominantly left-handed lineup. Additionally, Revere has never hit a major league home run, so he figures to do nothing to address the Phillies’ power shortage.

More and more, it seems that the Phillies will have to make the best of an imperfect situation by settling for free-agent talent that does not exactly fit their needs.

The premier power-hitting outfielder left on the board is Nick Swisher.

He is a switch-hitter, but most of his power comes from the left side. And while he may not end up getting the type of money Jayson Werth got, he was talking about cash like that as recently as August.

The Phillies may be better served reaching down for the likes of Delmon Young, who hit .267 with 18 home runs and 74 runs batted in for the Detroit Tigers in 2012. Young is a right-handed hitter; he is only 27 years old and he’s coming off ankle surgery. He could be signed for short years and/or short money.

Plus, signing Young would presumably keep the Phillies from settling on Cody Ross.

Phillies fans might have a hard time warming to Ross after his two home runs off Roy Halladay in Game 1 of the 2010 National League Championship Series started the Phillies on the course to disaster.

Besides, Ross’ slash line of .267/22/81 is not much different from Young’s .267/18/74. And Ross is four years older.

As for pitching, following the recent signings of Mike Adams and John Lannan, it is possible that the Phillies are finished looking to shore up their pitching staff.

But as last season proved, no one ever has enough quality pitching. Halladay and Cliff Lee both missed a number of turns in the rotation in 2012, and the starts from the likes of Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley could fairly be called “underwhelming.”

The Phillies are exceptionally unlikely to commit significant money on a fourth starter to back up Halladay, Lee and Cole Hamels (each of whom will earn over $20 million in 2012.) That probably rules out acquiring the likes of Edwin Jackson or even Shaun Marcum.

If the Phillies have any faith at all in Kendrick, Lannan and Tyler Cloyd, they might be better served trying to patch the last two rotation spots with those pitchers.

Signing a stopgap veteran like Freddy Garcia or Kevin Millwood (both ex-Phillies, incidentally) would probably do more to stunt the development of the players already in place than add value to the team.  

An intriguing name is Francisco Liriano. Granted, his split season with the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox in 2012 was pretty ugly: 6-12, 5.34 earned run average and a WHIP of 1.47.

But he is only 29, and is reportedly receptive to a one-year deal. Liriano is only two years removed from a 14-10 campaign in 2010 where he struck out 201 batters. If he is willing to sign with the Twins for one season, might he consider coming to Philadelphia under a similar arrangement?

One more good bullpen arm would not hurt. Kyle Farnsworth, Francisco Rodriguez and Matt Capps are all available, and they all have histories as closers and other relevant late-inning experience.

As the foregoing illustrates, the remaining free agents all have shortcomings, and none of them are perfect fits for what the Phillies need.

Then again, many of the free agents already snapped up (B.J. Upton, Josh Hamilton) were not perfect candidates, either, and they cost the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim very serious money.

There is also the possibility that the Phillies are finished making moves this offseason.

If they have a bullet or two left to fire, though, the options are getting more limited by the day.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Things Charlie Manuel Should Do to Save His Job

Charlie Manuel‘s Baseball Reference managerial page tells you a lot more about him than his career wins and losses at the helm of the Cleveland Indians and the Philadelphia Phillies.

He has 947 major-league managerial wins. Barring a midseason firing in 2013, he will get to 1,000 in a Phillies uniform.

In seven prior seasons as the Phillies’ manager, he had never won fewer than 85 games in a season. That is, until the 2012 Phillies staggered to 81-81.

He enters the 2013 season as a lame duck whose most recent contract extension will run out at the end of the season. Seeing this, the Phillies already seem to have his heir apparent, Ryne Sandberg, training on the job in the coming year.

Given that Manuel left the Indians in 2002 under strained contractual circumstances, that may not bode well for his job prospects in Philadelphia beyond 2013.

But what jumps off the page of statistics depicting Charlie Manuel’s managerial career is his birthdate. Manuel will turn 69 on January 4, 2013. Does he even really need this aggravation any more?

The Phillies’ 2013 results will almost certainly dictate whether the club gives Manuel another contract extension or decides to change course.

If Manuel wants to stay, though, there are some things he really needs to do as soon as possible.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Which Prospects Could Make the 2013 Roster?

It is often more exciting to discuss and project results for prospects than for established players.

Ask a Philadelphia Eagles fan if you doubt this. Nick Foles had an intriguing preseason while the Eagles effectively swathed Michael Vick in Bubble Wrap, trying to stave off what turned out to be the inevitable–a disabling Vick injury.

As the Eagles’ season started to unravel and Vick became more and more banged up, what started as whispers to “give the kid a chance” developed into conversation and finally ended in a full-throated insistence that Foles take over the starting job as the Eagles’ quarterback.

That said, had Vick not been concussed against the Dallas Cowboys, Foles would probably have never seen the field. Three weeks later, Eagles fans realize that maybe that result was preferable.

The Eagles still have not won a game since Vick went down. Foles finished his most recent game against the Carolina Panthers with 119 passing yards and no touchdowns.

In other words, whether you are looking at the National Football League, Major League Baseball or, really, any major professional sports league, the most popular guy is very often the new, exciting prospect who has no track record of failure.

The problem, of course, is that that same new, exciting prospect has no track record of success either.

While we are on the subject, it is normally only teams in the middle of the pack or worse that obsess over prospects. Neither the Washington Nationals nor the Atlanta Braves, both of them 2012 playoff participants, are too hung up this offseason trying to figure out how to squeeze major-league production out of untested players.

Nationals’ general manager Mike Rizzo recently took the unusual step of announcing as much, saying “We don’t have any pressing needs,” according to the Washington Post.

That stings if you are a Phillies fan, particularly since the Phillies’ GM used to say that sort of thing.

Neither Ruben Amaro Jr. nor Pat Gillick before him had that much to fix. They began with a young, productive nucleus of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels and built from there.

Sadly, those days are over. Oh, sure, all of those guys are back, and there are other high-profile players under contract too (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, et al). But none of them are young anymore, and the piles of money it took to sign them all have left the Phillies employing a “stars-and-scrubs” strategy to field a complete team.

As such, even with well over $100 million in 2013 payroll committed to players, the Phillies still have serious holes in the outfield and at third base. Plus, they will begin the season without their starting catcher as Carlos Ruiz serves his 25-game suspension for violating MLB‘s policy on banned substances, per ESPN.com.

Because of the expensive free-agent signings and prospect-depleting trades for the likes of Halladay, Lee and Pence, the Phillies can neither spend recklessly nor part with promising minor-league talent to fill their roster gaps.

Further complicating the analysis of which Phillies prospects might make the 2013 roster is the question of whether some of the players that would have been considered “prospects” in the summer of 2012 can still be referred to as such.

For example, last summer, Darin Ruf was teeing off on Eastern League pitching at AA Reading. The Phillies have a need for a right-handed power-hitting left fielder. In the minors, that is what Ruf was. He only played 12 major-league games last year.

So is he still a “prospect”? If so, you can almost guarantee he will make the 2013 roster given the Phillies’ outfield needs.

Similarly, Phillippe Aumont went from laboring at AA Reading to making 18 somewhat unexpected appearances with the big club toward the end of the 2012 season. Is Aumont still a “prospect”? Either way, he is very likely to make the team out of spring training. 

Domonic Brown has been wearing the “prospect” tag for what seems like half a decade. He is 25 years old now. He only played 56 games for the Phillies last season. Is he still a “prospect”? Because he should make the team, too.

Then there is the bizarre case of Freddy Galvis, who unexpectedly served as the starting second baseman for an injured Utley only to sustain a brutal injury of his own. Galvis‘ injury was coupled with insult when he was hit with a 50-game drug suspension by MLB in June while he was already on the disabled list, per ESPN.com.

So how do you classify Galvis? But for Utley’s injury, Galvis would probably never have seen any major-league time in 2012. He hit .226 in the 58 games he played. Is he still a “prospect”? And did he do enough to deserve a look in 2013, or is he better served finding a competent offensive game at AAA Lehigh Valley? 

Aside from these prospects, well, forgive a Phillies fan for not being too sanguine about the other prospects’ chances of making the Opening Day roster.

Tommy Joseph and Sebastian Valle are the two top catching prospects in the Phillies’ organization. But that does not mean either Joseph or Valle starts the season in Philadelphia while Ruiz serves out his punishment. They may be better off getting regular work in the minor leagues rather than caddying for the likes of Erik Kratz.

Jonathan Pettibone split his 2012 time between Reading and Lehigh Valley and pitched quite well, but when the Phillies had to replace Vance Worley, it was Tyler Cloyd who got the call.

With Hamels, Halladay, Lee and Worley more or less guaranteed rotation places, and Kyle Kendrick and Cloyd there to vie for the fifth rotation spot, Pettibone‘s odds of making the 2013 roster (absent an injury) are slim.

Beyond that, the prospects one might hold out the most hope for–Larry Greene Jr. and Carlos Tocci come to mind–are only still beginning their professional careers in earnest.

Ultimately, then, the “prospects” most likely to make the 2013 Phillies roster out of spring training are, if not familiar faces, then certainly not unknown ones.

And the only way most of the Phillies’ prospects will find their way to Philadelphia this season would be if the Phillies are once again out of playoff contention in June. Because at that point, the Phillies will start selling off veterans like Halladay and Utley for whatever they will return in trade, and someone will have to finish the season out.

Maybe hoping to see the Phillies’ prospects in 2013 is not such a great idea after all.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Upton Signing, Hanson Trade Show How Far Ahead Braves Are

Hot-stove banter can be fun. If you are an Atlanta Braves fan this week, you have a lot to talk about.

Your team made a big splash in free agency, landing B.J. Upton to play center field for the next five seasons and paying $75 million for the privilege, according to Yahoo.com and the Associated Press.

Then the Braves turned around and moved downward, trading right-handed starter Tommy Hanson to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for erstwhile Angels closer Jordan Walden, per the Los Angeles Times.

These are the sorts of moves that keep baseball fans interested through the desolate winter months.

If you are Phillies fan, though, suffice it to say that this past week was not quite so thrilling.

The two big developments in Hot Stove Land this week for the Fightin‘ Phils were a trade that did not happen and a drug suspension to a key cog in the Big Red Phillie Machine.

Wilton Lopez was going to be a Phillie, came to town for a physical examination and suddenly he wasn’t going to be a Phillie any more, per hardballtalk.com.

Phillies fans got their hopes up briefly. Lopez looked to be a credible answer to the question of what to do about the eighth inning, what with his earned run average just over 2.00 in 2012 and his penchant for throwing strikes.

Lopez’ acquisition was going to take some of the sting out of Carlos Ruiz’ 25-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program rules by taking a banned amphetamine, per ESPN.com and the Associated Press.

These developments of the past week underscore what every Phillies fan already knows, even if the die-hard nature of most Phillies fans precludes admitting even a shard of weakness.

Sad to say, but the Phillies are now the mediocre also-ran that they reduced their rivals to during their five-year reign in the National League East from 2007-2011.

Think about it. This week the Braves spent $75 million on a career .255 hitter with a career OPS of .758 and no All-Star Appearances. In seven full seasons in Tampa, the only category B.J. Upton led the American League in was times caught stealing.

Upton is 28 years old. The Braves are not paying Upton all this money based on his potential. Upton is a finished product. They’re are paying him generational cash figuring that what they see is what they will get.

And here’s the thing. When you have Jason Heyward in right field, Freddie Freeman at first base, Dan Uggla at second base and Martin Prado in left field, you do not need your marquee free agent to overachieve. You just need him to do what he has done before.

This is especially so given Atlanta’s pitching staff. The Braves will roll out Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor and Paul Maholm. Some combination of Randall Delgado, Julio Teheran and Brandon Beachy will combine to fill the fifth-starter role. Those are seven credible major league arms.

Atlanta’s starting pitching was so deep that they traded 26-year-old Tommy Hanson, he of the 45-32 career record, to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for their former closer, Jordan Walden.

That the Braves could trade a viable major league starter with some upside for a relief pitcher who will not close for them (not with Craig Kimbrel still drawing breath) tells you just how much pitching the Braves have.

The foregoing analysis relates to the Phillies in three ways, and none of them are good if you are a Phillies fan.

First, the Braves have plenty of money to throw around if they choose to. Upton instantly became their most expensive player at $15 million per season. Uggla will make $13 million this year. McCann will make $12 million and Hudson will earn $9 million. Those are the Braves’ big earners in 2013.

Contrast that with the Phillies, who have well over $100 million tied up in six players next season (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon.) Even Jimmy Rollins is set to make $11 million in 2013, and he is way down on the list of high-priced Phillies.

And despite spending all that money, the Phillies are still not quite sure who will be playing center field, left field or third base on Opening Day.

Second, the Braves have pitching to burn. Their rotation is deep enough that they could afford to part with Hanson for what is essentially a spare part in Walden. The Braves’ bullpen already had three of the most intimidating arms in baseball with Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty. Adding Walden is the equivalent of putting a sun room on a 35,000 square-foot vacation home.

By comparison, the Phillies had no one they could much rely on to get the ball to Jonathan Papelbon in 2012. They sent out the likes of B.J. Rosenberg, Joe Savery and Jakob Diekman in high-leverage situations in 2012, with predictably sorry results.

Finally, this week’s goings-on illustrate what is possible when a team like the Braves has affordable talent at several spots on the diamond.

Freeman and Heyward, two of the most promising young hitters in the National League East not named Bryce Harper, both made less than $600,000 in 2012.

Going into 2012, would you rather have had Freeman and Heyward at those prices, or Howard and Hunter Pence at $20 million and $10.4 million, respectively?

The bottom line for Phillies fans is this, and it is not pretty: since the Phillies are not going to catch the Washington Nationals in 2013, passing the Braves for a wild-card spot is probably the best the Phillies can hope for.

But this week’s hot-stove action illustrates just how far the gulf between the Braves and the Phillies really is.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Cheating Carlos Ruiz Is Overrated and Replaceable

Carlos Ruiz‘ recent 25-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program rules by taking a banned amphetamine, per CBSSports.com, is more than just discouraging news.

It is inexcusable, and it identifies Ruiz as a replaceable piece on the Phillies‘ roster. 

That statement will likely elicit cries of anguish and/or outrage from the guy in Section 433 at Citizens’ Bank Park sporting his “CHOOCH” t-shirt.

That sentiment, though, is another lingering, rotting remnant of the affection Phillies fans have fostered too long for the players involved with the Phillies’ World Series championship in 2008 and their National League pennant in 2009.

That same sentiment has caused the team’s fans to overrate and overstate the relative merits of the players they like. Ruiz is one of those players.

Ruiz’ avid supporters will point to his 2012 All-Star appearance and his having received National League Most Valuable Player votes in each of the past three seasons as proof of his value. (Statistics per baseball-reference.com.)

Given his recent suspension, though, it is regrettable that Ruiz had—by far—his best statistical season in 2012. He was often called on to bat much higher in the order than in past seasons due the injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Ruiz came through, posting a slash line of 16/68/.325 in only 114 games.

As it was happening, the fervent hope was that Ruiz was a player with a career average that had hovered around .270 “putting it all together.” Given the suspension, though, the sad truth is that Ruiz’ amphetamine use almost certainly enhanced his on-field performance. His 2012 line is thus tainted.

More importantly, though, the suspension raises the question of what Ruiz will do if compelled to play “clean” going forward. Ruiz will turn 34 in January; catchers especially are not known to age gracefully given the grueling physical demands of the position they play.

And while Ruiz will be eligible to participate in spring training, he will be suspended for the first month of the 2013 season. For a team that free-fell from playoff contention in late June in 2012, a fast start in 2013 will be essential. Ruiz will not be around to help.

Meanwhile, despite the generally-depleted state of the Phillies’ farm system in the wake of the trades that yielded Roy Halladay, Hunter Pence and others, the one position the Phillies seem to have covered at the minor league level is catcher.

Per the Philadelphia Inquirer, touted prospects Sebastian Valle and Tommy Joseph will begin the season at AAA Lehigh Valley. As such, while Erik Kratz will likely fill in for Ruiz at the beginning of the season, Valle and Joseph will have a month to perform at the AAA level and make a case for promotion to the big club.

The Inquirer report indicates that prior to the announcement of the suspension, it was believed that the Phillies and Ruiz would negotiate a contract extension beyond 2013. That is probably not a prudent course now.

Perhaps the wisest move for the Phillies in this situation would be to examine the trade market for Ruiz. Granted, the suspension does not do much for his trade value. 

But given the dearth of quality catching in Major League Baseball—per espn.go.com, the New York Yankees are being held hostage by Russell Martin, who hit .211 last season—some team is likely to see Ruiz as an upgrade over what they have behind the plate.

Perhaps this is not the best time to cite to the way the Philadelphia Eagles manage their personnel as an example to be followed. One thing the Eagles do well, though, is ignore fan loyalty when it is time to cut ties with a beloved player.

Brian Dawkins, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and Jeremiah Trotter are just a handful of the players the Eagles traded or waived whose careers, while not over, were headed that way quickly. Ruiz may well fit into that category now.

Regardless, Carlos Ruiz is a replaceable part now, and the time to replace him may be sooner than anyone thought a week ago.

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10 Reasons Philadelphia Phillies Must Go All-in in 2013

Candidly, it is tough to conceive of a metaphor more expletive-d out than the poker-based conceit of going all-in.

Ever since Chris Moneymaker won the 2003 World Series of Poker, and Texas Hold’em became a game that everyone and his wife thought they could play, “I’m all in!” has become something of an all-purpose American tag line.

Now everyone says it. Church bake sale? “We’re all in—our brownies are going to be the best we have ever made!” Johnny is failing in his seventh-grade math class? The teacher says he has not committed himself to the material and needs to go “all-in.”

The real trouble with all this, of course, is that these ham-handed allusions to the concept of going all-in, of really gambling everything in front of you with no guarantee that it will work out, cheapen the significant gravitas of the expression.

Of all the teams in Major League Baseball looking at 2013, the Philadelphia Phillies are definitely the team that has no choice but to go “all-in.” 

And that is not hyperbole or exaggeration.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Jonathan Papelbon Signing a Mistake on Many Levels

Phillies fans breathlessly await this offseason’s big-name acquisition.

After the 2009 season, the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay, committing $60 million to him, per MLB.com.

After the 2010 season, recognizing how foolish they had been in trading Cliff Lee away in the first place, the Phillies brought Lee back for $120 million, per sbnation.com.

Those moves made sense and, for the most part, Halladay and Lee have delivered on their contracts.

Unfortunately, as wise as the Halladay and Lee acquisitions were, the Phillies lost the plot during the 2011 offseason.

The signing of Jonathan Papelbon for $50 million (per ESPN.com) was only marginally defensible when it happened. Now, with three years left on the deal, that decision has turned out to be a serious error in judgment.

Mind you, this is in no way an indictment of Papelbon or his performance. 

Unlike many of the players to whom the Phillies paid eight-figure salaries in 2012, Papelbon did more or less what the Phillies expected him to do.

Papelbon saved 38 games. His earned run average of 2.44 was sterling, as was his 1.06 WHIP. Striking out 92 batters in 70 games was also in line with what the Phillies expected to get from Papelbon when they gave him all that money.

And when you look around the National League, it is hard to identify many closers you would rather have than Papelbon.

Craig Kimbrel is one.

Kimbrel shared the league lead in saves, posted absurdly low numbers for earned run average (1.01) and WHIP (.654) and he is only 24 years of age.

 

Aroldis Chapman, also 24, saved 38 games, but with much better peripheral statistics than Papelbon (1.51 earned run average, .809 WHIP, 122 strikeouts in 71.2 innings pitched).

But Chapman is only a year removed from his predominantly lost 2011 season, when the Reds could not figure out what to do with him and he struggled with injury.

After Kimbrel and Chapman, Papelbon compares favorably with the premier closers in the rest of the National League.

Jason Motte saved 42 games, but 2012 marked the first time in his career that he had ever saved more than nine games, and he is 30 years old. 

Beyond Motte, you see a number of journeymen and league-average types: Joel Hanrahan, John Axford, J.J. Putz, et al.

Given Papelbon’s track record and his solid production in 2012, the Phillies would likely prefer him to any of those closers.

So why is the Papelbon signing such a mistake?

If the San Francisco Giants proved anything in their recent World Series run, it is that Billy Beane’s famous theory that just about anyone can close games is true.

When the Giants won the 2010 World Series, Brian Wilson made a name for himself as a quirky, lights-out closer with a funky beard. 

This season, however, Wilson pitched in two games before needing reconstructive elbow surgery. The Giants’ regular-season saves leader was Santiago Casilla.

But Sergio Romo saved all four games in the 2012 World Series. 

 

Beyond that, the eight figures that Papelbon commanded meant that the Phillies entered 2012 with plans to have inexpensive pitchers bridge games from the pricey starting staff to him.

Jose Contreras, Antonio Bastardo, David Herndon and Michael Stutes were all projected to pitch in the seventh and eighth innings of close games.

Of that group, all but Bastardo got hurt, and Bastardo‘s performance was so poor that by the end of the season he was primarily used in low-leverage situations.

Further, because manager Charlie Manuel was exceptionally loath to use Papelbon for more than one inning, the Phillies were eventually compelled to entrust late inning leads to the likes of B.J. Rosenberg, Jeremy Horst and Joe Savery, with predictable results.

At this point, the Phillies are probably stuck with Papelbon, at least in 2013.

His trade value with $39 million more due over the next three seasons is not going to be great. As such, the Phillies are best served hoping that he will churn out another healthy season of 30-plus saves.

If they had it to do over again, though, the Phillies would probably have Papelbon make his generational money somewhere else.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Reasons They Can Compete—and Win—in 2013

The Phillies continue to be linked to numerous prominent free agent center fielders (per mlbtraderumors.com) as the hot stove begins to take on that familiar orange glow.

It would be wonderful if the Phillies’ problems were so easy to solve that one big-money free agent signing would catapult them back into playoff contention. Sadly, the Phillies have many more holes to fill than just center field. 

They need another outfielder, a third baseman, bullpen arms to ferry games from Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee to Jonathan Papelbon and, depending on Freddy Galvis’ health, possibly a utility infielder. Also, it would help if any of the hitters they sign could hit from the right side.

On a happier note, Darin Ruf hit .258 with 10 home runs and 27 RBI through 32 Venezualan Fall League games. Perhaps left field is not as great a concern as previously believed.

The better news is that the Phillies will not need Ruf to hit 40-plus home runs in 2013 to contend. What follows are the reasons why.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton on Fightins’ Wish List

The Philadelphia Phillies are apparently serious about not just landing a premium free agent like Josh Hamilton or B.J. Upton this offseason—they are looking at stars under contract too.

This is the sort of aggressive thinking that happens when a team follows up five division titles with a season its fans would have been happy to see end in July.

Couple that with the gaping holes the Phillies have in the outfield and at third base (apologies to Kevin Frandsen) and you can see why the team with the second-highest payroll in 2012 may be getting ready to write a few more huge checks. (Via USA Today.)

And it is probably the only way to explain why the Phillies would be linked to the possibility of signing Josh Hamilton (per Buster Olney).

The arguments against Josh Hamilton as a big-money free agent are plentiful. Can you remember an established superstar hitting free agency with more questions surrounding him than Hamilton?

In the past four seasons with the Texas Rangers, Hamilton has missed an astonishing 157 games. Then you see his underwhelming postseason numbers (.227 batting average, .424 slugging percentage) and the thought of guaranteeing Hamilton generational money looks as dubious as some of his life choices. (Via baseball-reference.com.)

In the past five seasons, though, Hamilton has made five All-Star teams, won two Silver Slugger awards and a Most Valuable Player award. His team went to two World Series.

The considerable fretting about his age (he will turn 32 in May) and the missed games ignores what he would bring to Philadelphia for the shorter term, something they do not have right now.

Hamilton would give the Phillies a hitter opposing pitchers fear.

Up to now, the prevailing speculation was that B.J. Upton was the preferred candidate to man center field for the next few years (per CSN Philly). It is easy to see why.

Upton is a legitimate power/speed threat at a premium position. At 28 years of age, Upton is coming into his prime right now, and his 28 home runs and 31 steals in 2012 prove that point.

The holes in the Phillies’ outfield can be addressed in free agency, particularly if Darin Ruf and Domonic Brown can be counted on to play significant roles in 2013 and beyond.

Third base, though, is looking like a position that would best be addressed via trade.

In July, the Phillies reportedly inquired of the San Diego Padres what it would take to pry Chase Headley loose, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.

Headley emerged from a series of solid but unspectacular seasons to post a slash line of .286/31/115 in 2012. At 28 years of age, Headley‘s trade value is never ever going to be higher. Will the Padres trade him? Will they sign him to an extension?

The Padres are kidding themselves if they think they can contend in the near future for the National League West title with the recent two-time world champion San Francisco Giants and the big-dollar, big-expectation Los Angeles Dodgers in the division.

So it will be interesting to learn whether the Phillies are willing to overpay the Padres for Headley. He would fill a huge hole in the field and in the lineup.

The shocker, though, is the emergence of news of another superstar third baseman who may be on the move.

Wall Street Journal writer and self-described sports analyst Michael Salfino tweeted Sunday that a source told him that “Wilpon/Mets are broke, can’t extend R.A. or Wright and have maybe two years left before they lose team.” (Via hardballtalk.nbcsports.com.) 

Could the Phillies make a play for Wright?

The Mets certainly would be chagrined to see Wright wander down I-95 to show up in the Phillies’ lineup against them almost 20 times a season.

But if the Phillies are willing to part with value for Wright in a trade, or if the Mets feel like there may be better uses for the $16 million Wright will get in 2013 plus whatever amount it will take to sign him to an extension, the idea of Wright in red pinstripes becomes less far-fetched.

The sad truth for the Mets is that by the time the team fully recovers from its financial difficulties and gets competitive again, Wright will be past his prime. (Via New York Post.) If the Mets are going to rebuild, parting with Wright is the best way to get started.

The Phillies need a third baseman and Wright is among the best in baseball.

A deal sending Wright to Philadelphia is unlikely. But given the recent rumblings from New York, it is certainly not impossible.

Securing the services of even one of these huge names would almost certainly convince a newly-skeptical fanbase that the Phillies are once again ready to challenge for a championship in 2013.

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