B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher Head Class of Free Agents Who Make Sense for Phillies

Ruben Amaro Jr. had best already be thinking about how to improve the Phillies through free agency.

Despite what was an entertaining September flurry of wins, the Phillies are about to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006.  The trades of Shane Victorino (soon to be a free agent) and Hunter Pence (arbitration eligible this offseason) brought the Phillies modest returns in terms of prospects and bench depth at the major league level.

What those trades really did, though, was save the Phillies from committing another eight figures to Pence and from a possible fan push to re-sign Victorino for too many years and too much money.

Make no mistake: the Phillies cannot dive head-first into the free agent pool this offseason.  Ryan Howard, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay are on the books for nearly $100 million in 2013.  Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Jonathan Papelbon will get just shy of $38 million more among them.

The Phillies will pay more to those seven players than all but four clubs this season (New York Yankees, Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) paid to their entire teams.

Still, the Phillies’ payroll was $174 million entering 2012.  There should be room for at least one marquee signing.

Looking at the team, they may need to dig even deeper than that.  Here are five players the Phillies should consider signing this winter.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Would Fans Turn on the Team If 2013 Is a Repeat of 2012?

Ruben Amaro Jr. can look to the recent Mitt Romney video leak to illustrate what he is dealing with relative to the expectations of Phillies fans in 2013.

Romney (now famously) said that 47 percent of Americans pay no Federal income taxes.

He did not stop there. Romney went on to describe what he sees as the significant portion of the voting public “who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it. That that’s an entitlement.”

However you feel about Romney’s words, and whatever your political persuasion, it is not a stretch to say that Romney’s words can easily be tweaked to describe the current relationship between the Philadelphia Phillies and their fanbase.

Substitute “Phillies” for “government” and “Phillies fans” for the people Romney was talking about as a starting point. Substitute wins, division titles and world championships for health care, food and housing, and you see where you end up.

Phillies fans, after five years, five division titles, two pennants and a World Series ring, are feeling entitled.

Like the wide swath of the population that Romney threw a belittling net over, the entitled Phillies fans can be found just about anywhere you look, or listen.

They are waiting in line at the Dunkin’ Donuts, griping about how Ryan Howard’s recent grand slam came with the team already up 12-1—typically empty production from him. They are calling into Philadelphia sports talk radio, trying to talk themselves into Chase Utley as a third baseman and John Mayberry Jr. as an everyday major league outfielder.

And, for now, they are still showing up to the ballpark. Of course they are. 2012’s tickets have already been sold. If you responded to the recent playoff invoice the team sent out, well, hopefully you did not make plans around October baseball at Citizens Bank Park.

In about six weeks, Romney will find out what the electorate thinks of words that he has since admitted were not “elegant.” It is difficult to imagine that he will not pay some price at the polls.

In about six months, RAJ will find out what the ticket-buying public in Philadelphia thinks of the team he created, a team that did not deliver on its promise in 2012. It is difficult to imagine that he will not see fewer season ticket renewals, fewer games sold out before the season even begins…in sum, fewer people willing to buy the 2013 Phillies on faith.

Using the team’s attendance history as a guide, it may not be 2013 that sees the fanbase turn on the Phillies. Even in abbreviated seasons following the 1993 pennant, the Phillies drew over 2 million fans in 1994 and 1995.

But by 1996, the fans had had enough, and the team did not draw over 2 million again until 2003.

So will the fans turn on the team in 2013 if it is another disappointing year?

If not in 2013, then soon enough thereafter.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Fantasy, Reality and Magic Take Phils over .500

Rule No. 1: never root for your fantasy team over your real team.

Particularly when your real team has a magic carpet under it.

I have never finished better than eighth out of 14 teams in my mixed keeper fantasy baseball league.  I am running third this season with three weeks left.  The guy right behind me (who won the league last year) sent Cliff Lee to the hill against my Josh Johnson today.

Johnson cruised through five innings today without giving up a hit.  Lee gave up an unearned run in the sixth inning aided by an error from Jimmy Rollins and one of Lee’s own.  Johnson was nicked for a run when the suddenly-resurgent John Mayberry Jr. drove Rollins in with a solid two-out single.

From a fantasy perspective?  Fine.  One run in six innings on two hits is pretty good for Johnson.

The Marlins went down quietly in the top of the seventh, and Johnson went back out for the bottom of the frame.  He would face Erik Kratz, Michael Martinez and a pinch-hitter for Lee.  7-8-9.  It sure looked manageable, particularly after Kratz struck out and Martinez grounded weakly to Jose Reyes.

And then it happened.  The magic that the Phillies suddenly have, that they have lacked all season long, showed up again.

Pete Orr came up to hit for Lee.  From a fantasy perspective (and of course in reality too,) this meant that Lee could not win the game unless Orr kept the inning going.

Let me be clear about this: Pete Orr is not a good major-league baseball player.  If Freddy Galvis had not broken his back, Orr might not have seen time today.

Orr quickly went down 1-2 in the count, and then Johnson went to put him away with a 95-miles-per-hour fastball, a pitch that ordinarily would be more than good enough to retire a pop-gun hitter like Orr.

Except Orr shanked a ten-hopper past the second baseman, bringing Jimmy Rollins to the plate with one on and two out.

Maybe a minute later, Rollins golfed a low fastball into the right field bleachers.  The score was 3-1, Phillies, which became final after Jonathan Papelbon pumped another fastball past another hapless Marlin to close it out in the ninth.

Again, for fantasy purposes, this was sort of an apocalypse for me.  Johnson was one pitch away from a final line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H.  A great outing, at worst a no-decision.

Three pitches later he was on the hook for the loss he eventually was tagged with.

Here is the thing though: ultimately, I don’t care about Josh Johnson or my admittedly silly fantasy team.

My son (pretty adroitly for a 6-year-old) told me in the eighth inning that I needed the Marlins to tie the game so Johnson would not take the loss.

“No,” I said, “I am not telling you how to live your life, but I never root for my fantasy team over my real team.  I want the Phillies to win.”  And they did.

That makes it seven in a row for the Phillies, now over .500 for the first time since June 3.  Dead and buried as recently as two weeks ago, they are 3.5 games out of the final wild card spot.

The fantasy may be dying, but the reality is that this Phillies team is suddenly magic. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Ruben Amaro Jr.’s Job May Be in Limbo This Offseason

Ruben Amaro Jr. may have his job on the line this offseason because of people like me. 

And, maybe, you.

In the few months that I have written in this space, I have intentionally avoided writing in the first person.  I have a very clear understanding of my place in the world of sports journalism, and while I always have an opinion I know that putting my name and my personal feelings behind it does not really move the needle.

In this instance, though, first person is the way to go. 

Impartial, heavily-researched, stat-laden takes on why the Phillies‘ general manager might get fired if 2013 is not better than this year are available all over the Web, including this site you’re on right now.

So if you want to read about the nine figures’ worth of contracts sunk in six players for next season (Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, Chase Utley,) or the depleted farm system, or all the holes the team has to fill (third base, the entire outfield, middle relief) suffice it to say you have options.

Not to go all Gary Matthews on you, but for me, Ruben Amaro Jr. is in trouble because of how I feel about the Sunday season tickets I still have for 2012 and for the tickets he wants me to buy again for 2013.

On Sunday I took my son and my daughter to the afternoon game against the Colorado Rockies.  We did luck into getting a Hamels start after Saturday night’s rainout, but neither lineup was what you could call high-wattage.  The Rockies, especially, looked like a AAAA team: not minor league, but not major league, either.

While that was going on, the Philadelphia Eagles were playing the Cleveland Browns in their season opener. 

Ostensibly, both the Phillies game and the Eagles game “counted,” but let’s be honest: 90% of the crowd at the Phillies game spent the day looking for Eagles score updates on their PDAs, and the other 10% were trying not to hear the score because the Eagles game was recording at home.

Think I’m overstating it? While my children and I were waiting for the family restroom, a stadium maintenance worker saw the phone in my hand and asked what the Eagles score was.

Essentially, then, I spent a couple hundred dollars (tickets, parking, food/drink) on an entertainment experience that was not particularly entertaining when I had a more enticing option available (for free!) at home.

And that is why Ruben Amaro Jr.’s tenure as the Phillies’ general manager may be in jeopardy.

The season ticket invoices will come out like always this winter. Probably by then, the Phillies will have made some moves in free agency or in trade to address some of the needs listed above. 

They do this every year now, it seems: Papelbon last year, Lee the year before that, Halladay the year before that, and so on—bold-type, splashy move to re-energize the fan base and, without question, to get the ticket-buying fence-sitters to sign up for one more year.

But it gets harder with each season removed from the 2008 World Championship season to write that check to the Phillies to save a place at the park.

Not so long ago, I was more than happy to give the Phillies my money and my time.  I made it a priority to get the invoice paid on time—even early—to make sure my seats didn’t go to somebody else.

I am not going to feel like that in January. I am going to stare at that invoice. I am going to remember how I felt at the stadium this particular Sunday (and really, all the Sundays since June). And I am going to make a decision.

That I have to think about it at all is why Ruben Amaro Jr. could be looking for work in 2013.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Ways to Keep Chase Utley, Ryan Howard Healthy in 2013

Chase Utley’s first game of the 2012 season came on June 27, 2012.  

Just shy of two weeks later, on July 6, 2012, Ryan Howard made his long-anticipated return from the Achilles tendon tear that so strangely occurred on the last play of the Phillies‘ 2011 season.

By the time Howard returned to live action this year, the Phillies were 37-47 and buried in the National League East basement, 13 games behind the Washington Nationals.

Today, the Phillies are five games better from a win-loss standpoint.  Considering that they have played the last two months without Hunter Pence or Shane Victorino, this improvement is encouraging.

And it proves how critical it is to the Phillies for Utley and Howard to stay in the lineup.

How can they maximize these assets in 2013?  Here are some ideas.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins’ 2,000 Hits Part of His Enigmatic Equation

The newest member of the Philadelphia Phillies‘ 2,000-hit club is a very hard player to define.  Jimmy Rollins is, and is not, a lot of things.

“J-Roll” has been the Phillies’ undisputed leadoff man for the significant majority of the past 12 seasons, the last five of which saw his team make the playoffs and included a pennant and a World Series title.

He is not, though, a “leadoff” hitter.  His career batting average is .270, which would not be such a problem except that his career on-base percentage is .328. 

In a career where he more often than not got 700-plus plate appearances per season, he has never drawn more than 58 walks in a year.

Leadoff hitters get on base any way they can.  Even despite 2011 and 2012 statistical lines that have dulled his brilliance, Ichiro Suzuki’s career on-base percentage is .365.  Yes, his career average is .322, and yes, that certainly explains some of the difference.  But then, Ichiro put the ball on the ground and exploited his speed, something Rollins only seems to do when he feels like it.

Rollins has speed.  He has 398 stolen bases against just 83 times caught stealing, a success rate of just below 80 percent.

But Rollins is not a “basestealer.”  He has led the National League in stolen bases only once, in his first full season in 2001.  He has never been the type who could steal 60-plus bases for three consecutive years like Jose Reyes (2005-2007) or for that matter lead the league in steals for years in a row (Reyes and Michael Bourn).

Rollins has pop.  He has hit 30 home runs in a season (during his glorious 2007 Most Valuable Player campaign) and has 10 double-digit home-run years in the record books.

But he is not a “power hitter,” much as he would like to be.  Tallying 187 home runs in 7,395 career at-bats is a home run every 39.5 at-bats.  As an example, Troy Tulowitzki has 130 home runs—in 2,813 at-bats.

Rollins is a very good defensive shortstop.  He has three Gold Gloves to his credit (2007-2009) and a career fielding percentage of .983.  Probably his defense had as much to do with the Phillies’ willingness to sign him to his current three-year contract extension as did his marginally declining offensive skills.

But he is not an elite defensive player, in the manner of Ozzie Smith or Omar Vizquel.  Or even Derek Jeter, who has five Gold Gloves despite playing short left field for the past few years.

And while Jeter is being mentioned, it has to be said: Rollins is the leader of the Phillies, but to call him a “leader” is probably stretching the meaning of the word.

Rollins leads the Phillies because when he plays well, they play well.  His 2007 MVP season was not coincidentally the team’s first playoff appearance in 14 years.  In 2009, Rollins led the league in plate appearances and at-bats and scored 100 runs while also collecting that third Gold Glove.

But “leaders” do not have multiple incidents of failing to run out ground balls and pop-ups.  “Leaders” do not show up late to the stadium without a reason.  Basically, leaders do not put their managers in no-win situations (bench the player and hurt the team, or excuse the offense and look weak.)

For that matter, leaders do not put their teammates in the awkward position of having to answer questions about their own poor choices.

The enigma that is Rollins extends into the stands.  He famously chided Phillies’ fans for being “too quiet” during Game 2 of the 2011 National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals.  But when fans booed him for not running out a pop-up last week, well, he had a lot less to say.  “Hell no,” Rollins replied to interrogating reporters. “(Manuel) already told you what happened. There you go.”

That’s not “I made a mistake and I will do better going forward,” is it?

Even if Rollins only plays the next two seasons guaranteed on his current contract, he projects easily to pass Mike Schmidt (2,234) for the all-time Phillies lead in hits.  If he can play five more seasons, 2,500 hits and a ticket to the Hall of Fame become real possibilities.

Perhaps only then will Phillies fans finally know what sort of player Jimmy Rollins really was. 

Because, even at this late date, it is still pretty hard to know.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Ways Ruben Amaro Jr. Can Fix the Phillies for 2013

True to form, your 2012 Philadelphia Phillies followed up its spirited sweep of the division-leading Washington Nationals by promptly dropping another series to the New York Mets.

Vance Worley is finished for the season. The better question is why Worley was not shut down long before now. In his last five starts, Worley got out of the sixth inning just once. He went 0-3 in those turns. Something clearly was not right; Now, he’s finally going to have the surgery he should have had a month ago.

With the 2012 season rotting slowly like tomato left out in the August sun, a fan’s attention turns to 2013. If you were Ruben Amaro Jr., how would you fix this team? 

Let us count the ways.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Will Ryan Howard Make Another All-Star Team?

The fairest way to decide whether Ryan Howard can ever make another All-Star team is to assess all the ways players make All-Star teams and see if any of those doors ever figure to open for Howard again.

 

1.  The fans could vote him in as a starter.

Not likely.  Howard has appeared in three All-Star games, but despite putting up gaudy numbers for a few seasons, he has never started one in the field. 

In 2006, Howard was a reserve along with the Houston Astros‘ Lance Berkman behind the starter, Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Here is a fantastic bar bet: Did Ryan Howard make the National League All-Star team in 2007 or 2008? The answer, remarkably, is no.

One year after his 2006 season in which he hit 58 home runs, drove in 149 runs, scored 104 runs, batted .313—and won the National League Most Valuable Player award(!)—Howard was passed over in favor of the starter, the Milwaukee Brewers‘ Prince Fielder, and reserves Pujols, Derrek Lee of the Chicago Cubs and the immortal Dmitri Young of the Washington Nationals. You guessed it: Young was the Nationals’ lone representative in the 2007 All-Star Game.

Adding insult to insult, Howard was not selected to the 2008 All-Star team, either, despite having posted a slash line of 47/136/.268 and finishing fifth in the voting for MVP in defense of his title.

Howard was a reserve in both 2009 and 2010, playing behind Pujols both times.

He has not been back since. For the fans to vote Howard in as a starter, he will probably need to move to another baseball market, where the fans vote early and often.  St. Louis would be a good choice, or San Francisco.

With his contract, though, that is not about to happen.

 

2.  His own manager could select him.

That is what happened in 2010, when Charlie Manuel used his prerogative as the All-Star team’s manager (earned after the Phillies won the 2009 pennant) to take Howard over Joey Votto. It worked out for both players when Votto won the fan vote for the final roster spot on that All-Star team.

For history to repeat itself in this manner, the Phillies will have to win at least another pennant AND Howard will need to have numbers that give his manager a reasonable basis to choose him.  Howard hit .253 in 2011 and he is hitting .254 in limited action this season.

If his batting average continues to languish below .260, there is not likely to ever be a reasonable basis for his manager to take him along over an arguably more deserving player.

 

3.  Another team’s manager could select him, i.e., he could play his way onto the team.

This is his best chance.

Howard has three things going for him where this possible berth is concerned: his name, the need to only put up numbers for about two months (those first two months of the season) and the relative lack of dominant first-base talent in the National League.

As things stand, after Votto, first base in the National League is pretty thin. This season, Bryan LaHair of the Chicago Cubs was the backup to Votto on the All-Star team. Do you think LaHair can do that again? You might be the only one. In 2010, Gaby Sanchez made the All-Star team as a Florida Marlin; Sanchez spent part of this season in the minor leagues. It is just not a deep position in the NL. 

Then again, if Howard’s numbers continue to decline, the thought of, say, Davey Johnson or Dusty Baker taking him over Adam LaRoche or Joey Votto—to say nothing of comers like Freddie Freeman or Anthony Rizzo—stretches the premise beyond believability.

 

4.  He could be an injury replacement.

Apply all of the facts set forth in No. 3. above, then add in the possibility that one or two players ahead of Howard are either: a. legitimately hurt, or b. are just dinged enough not to want to travel to play two innings in an exhibition.

That said, getting in as an injury replacement is always a crap shoot—it helps to be either the sentimental favorite (like Chipper Jones) or the shiny toy (like Bryce Harper.) You can probably figure out where Howard, now 32, will fit on that spectrum in coming seasons.

You can say this for Howard, though: If he gets asked again, you can be reasonably sure he will go.

 

5.  He could win the fan vote for the final spot on the team.

For the same reasons as No. 1. above, Howard is unlikely to sneak onto an All-Star team through the popular vote. Shane Victorino did win the final vote in 2011, though, so the possibility cannot be ruled out.

 

6.  He could be the Phillies’ only representative.

You just threw up in your mouth a little, didn’t you?

Per the above, luck and timing play as much of a role in making an All-Star team as dominant or just excellent play does. Arguably, Howard’s two best seasons saw him miss All-Star teams in favor of stars who had better numbers and/or more votes.

Maybe, just maybe, Howard is due to sneak onto an All-Star team one of these years when objectively he does not “deserve” it.

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10 Reasons Why the Phillies Must Reload, Not Rebuild, in the Offseason

The Philadelphia Phillies were supposed to be leaving questions like “rebuild or reload” for franchises well-versed in that dilemma: your Pittsburgh Pirates, your Milwaukee Brewers.

This is generally the province of the middle-market team, with payrolls south of $100 million and often records south of .500.

But the Phillies spent over $173 million this season only to see all of their careful plans laid to waste by the upstart Washington Nationals, the stalwart Atlanta Braves and, at various times, the rest of the National League. 

With 45 games left to play, the Phillies still have 10.5 games to make up and five teams to pass just to secure the second wild card.  Even if you are not good at math, you know the numbers say it is not going to happen.

Here are 10 reasons why Ruben Amaro Jr.’s answer to the question at hand has to be “reload.”

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Philadelphia Phillies: Old Guys Got Hurt; Also, Water Is Wet, Sun Is Hot

Ask someone who does not know much about baseball why the Phillies’ season is in the hopper and you generally hear some variation of “they had a lot of injuries.” The only sane response to that is, “of course they did.”

There was a time in baseball when players got better as they got older. It wasn’t that long ago, actually. 

Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs—after never having hit even 50 before—at the age of 36. Roger Clemens went 20-3 at the age of 38. Luis Gonzalez hit 57 home runs—after never having hit even 32 before—at the age of 33. 

Yes, 2001 (the year all that happened) was awesome, if that was your sort of thing.

Draw your own conclusions as to whether all of those feats were nature, coincidence or something else.

But as far as the 2012 Phillies are concerned, all you need to know is that it is not 2001 any more. In 2012, players in their 30s and 40s do not get bigger, stronger, faster and better. Instead, they get smaller, weaker, slower and worse.

And they get hurt. Boy, do they get hurt.

Somehow, the Phillies’ front office never saw any of this coming. As an object lesson then, here is a quick look back at the “unforeseeable” injuries that in retrospect aren’t quite so shocking.

Jim Thome, 41 years of age, was going to be a stopgap at first base until the incumbent came back from his own horrific injury. Quickly, though, it became apparent that Thome’s body could no longer handle the rigors of first base, even sporadically. The Phillies traded Thome to the Baltimore Orioles, putatively so he would be in a position to DH some and prolong his career. 

As of this writing, Thome is on the disabled list with a neck issue.

Jose Contreras, 40, was going to serve as a valuable linchpin at the back end of the bullpen. His earned run average was over five when his right elbow more or less exploded. He will not pitch again this season and the jury is very much out on whether he will ever pitch again.

Roy Halladay, 35, was supposed to make another 34 or 35 starts, win another 15-20 games, post an ERA under 3.50 and lead the pitching staff. But he couldn’t do that once he came up with a lat injury that knocked him out for almost two months. Again, it’s not as if Halladay was making a Cy Young case before hitting the disabled list, not at 4-5 with a 3.98 ERA.

Cliff Lee, 33, was also thought to be an “every fifth day” pitcher. But when his manager, Charlie Manuel, inexplicably decided to have him pitch ten innings, in San Francisco, in April, Lee missed three turns.  Is the left oblique strain Lee complained of soon after that game the reason he is presently 2-7?  Maybe not. You doubt it helped much, though.

Carlos Ruiz, 33, was slotted as the everyday catcher. He would get appropriate breathers from Brian Schneider, 35, but Chooch was the man on whom the plan largely depended. Ruiz, after all, was entrusted with handling more than $50M worth of starting pitching and an eight-figure closer. 

That Ruiz hit .335 with 14 home runs was just icing on the cake…right up to the point where he came up with Plantar fasciitis and landed on the disabled list. He will remain there for the foreseeable future. 

Schneider would have helped out, but he missed the entire month of July with his own injury.

You are almost 600 words into this article and you still have not read the names Chase Utley, 33, or Ryan Howard, 32. You may have heard that they missed some time, too.

Well, at least Jimmy Rollins, 33, stayed healthy.

Then again, the calendar still says “August.”

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