Philadelphia Phillies: Unprecedented Expensive Failure a Mystery to Fans

It is always about the money.

In fact, the minute someone ever says to you, “it’s not about the money,” you know that person is lying.

For the Phillies in 2012, who must now be asking themselves why the fanbase is teetering toward forsaking them, the answer is in the dollars.

This season, the Phillies have the highest payroll in the National League, but are languishing in the bottom half of the league standings.

The reason this is such a problem for the Phillies is that this result is the worst of the four possible results you can have as a professional sports franchise with reference to the relationship between cost and results.

Boiling it down to its essence, a pro sports team’s season can be characterized in one of four ways: an inexpensive success, an expensive success, an inexpensive failure, or an expensive failure.

Having spent over $173M for a team that projects to win fewer than 80 games, it is pretty clear that this Phillies team is an expensive failure.  Compounding the problem for the Phillies is that, for the fans, the concept of expensive failure is nearly impossible to grasp and even tougher to accept.

Phillies fans have long been conditioned to dealing with inexpensive failures.

The 1990 Phillies had only three players making more than $1M that season.  That those three players were Von Hayes, Roger McDowell and Dickie Thon probably goes a long way toward explaining how the 1990 Phillies finished 77-85, fourth place in the National League East.

The 1995 Phillies were 20th in payroll in all of Major League Baseball, and a top-heavy payroll at that.  Big deals were given to Darren Daulton and Lenny Dykstra in the hangover from the 1993 pennant-winning team.  They finished 69-75 in a truncated 1995 season following the 1994 players’ strike that cost the sport a World Series.

In 2000, the Phillies were—again—20th in payroll in MLB.  They finished 65-97, dead last in the National League East.

In each of those instances, while the team’s performance was fairly dismal, it could not have been deemed unexpected. 

In 1990, the team was seven years removed from its last playoff appearance with little hope on the horizon.  In 1995, the 1993 National League Championship team had already begun proving that its surprising run was more miracle than explicable result; the 1994 Phillies were 54-61 when the strike ended the season.  In 2000, as in 1990, the team was seven years on from playoff baseball, again with little-to-no hope of quick improvement.

Those seasons were, comparatively speaking, inexpensive failures.

Inexpensive successes are, understandably, rare.  The closest you can come to that for the Phillies in the past two decades was the 1993 team, which was a collection of spare parts that somehow became a greater whole.  The temptation is to look at the 2007 team the same way, but that would be inaccurate: the 2007 team had eight players making more than $5M, including the ungodly $10M paid to Freddy Garcia. 

From that point forward, the past four teams would have to be considered expensive successes.  While the team’s playoff performances ultimately disappointed after 2008, four consecutive defenses of the National League East title cannot be seen as failure.  They came at a cost, though: $98M in 2008, $113M in 2009, $141M in 2010 and $172M in 2011.

And now this.  For a franchise that had, before the middle of the past decade, traditionally thrown nickels around like they were manhole covers, the 2012 team represented an even further extension of capital toward reclaiming the pennant, or even perhaps the world championship.

Perhaps it is not the franchise’s first expensive failure, but in terms of degree it is certainly the most drastic.

That is why the fanbase does not know what to do.  Phillies fans can understand the franchise not spending money and losing a lot of games.  They have experienced the thrill of a “cheap” team unexpectedly overachieving.  Surely, anyone could identify the correlation between the piles of money spent for the past five years and the team’s success.

The question the fans have now is, if the Phillies spent $173M on this team and got this result, could it happen again?  Will they continue to throw money into the team at this rate?

If it were your money, would you?

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Mix of Stars and Scrubs Are an Optical Illusion

Most nights, for an inning or so, it all still makes sense—the Philadelphia Phillies still look like the Phillies.

Friday night’s game, for example, saw Roy Halladay take the ball.  He gave up a solo home run to Carlos Beltran in the first inning, but after that he was really excellent and never in any serious trouble.

Just how you remember it. 

The Phillies’ first four batters in the game were Jimmy Rollins, Juan Pierre, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.  Four legitimate major league baseball players, two former National League Most Valuable Players. 

Or to put it another way, an aggregate of over $47 million in salary to four hitters.

Save for the occasions when Jonathan Papelbon ($11 million) comes in at the end of the game (as he did Friday night), that is where the similarities to the Phillies you remember ends.

After Howard on Friday night, the next four hitters in the Phillies’ lineup—the team that led the National League in run differential going away in 2011—were Domonic Brown, Nate Schierholtz, Erik Kratz and Kevin Frandsen.

Or to put it another way, an aggregate of far, far less than $47 million in salary to four hitters.  Actually, far less than $4.7 million, as only Schierholtz is making more than $1 million this season.

Three games out of five, you still get to watch Halladay, Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels pitch.  You are no doubt well aware of their significant contracts.  Hamels is getting by on $15 million this season before his lucrative extension kicks in.  Halladay and Lee are being paid $20 million and $21.5 million, respectively, this season.

Trouble is, once they stop pitching and before (if) Papelbon pitches, the pitching staff, like the back half of the lineup, gets tough to recognize.

Antonio Bastardo is still there, but after him, so many of the names and faces are so hard to place.  Could you pick Josh Lindblom, B.J. Rosenberg or Jeremy Horst out of a lineup?  You might be the only one.

Going back to Friday night, the last four position players in the lineup combined to go 3-for-12, all of the hits singles, with one run batted in (Brown) and no runs scored.

Utley bailed the offense out with a mammoth home run to deep right center field in the bottom of the eighth inning.  Rollins, standing on third base when Utley struck it, simply smiled and pointed skyward.  And again, it felt like old times, if only for a moment.

All the while, an announced crowd of 43,122 (98.8 percent capacity, if you care) did what it has done for the past five successful seasons.  It sat idly when things were going poorly, it roused when the Phillies threatened, it willed some big outs from Halladay.  Then it erupted when Utley played the hero.

This, then, is how the remainder of your 2012 Phillies season is likely to play out.

Even though the team’s playoff hopes are all but dead, the park is going to be plenty full for many of the remaining home dates…because the money is already spent on the tickets.  That money is not coming back, either, at least not on StubHub or eBay.  The tickets have been devalued by the team’s poor play.

In the past, the choice was often just to stay home and eat the tickets.  But when the cheapest seat in the stadium costs $20 (and with so many seats already bought for so much more) it is much harder to justify watching the game on television or, for that matter, going out and doing something else. 

That would mean burning entertainment dollars twice on the same night.

So on the surface, then, the 2012 Phillies continue to look sort of like the Phillies teams of the recent past: plenty of people in the seats, big names in the lineup and for most games, big names on the mound.

Looking closer, though, it does not take long to notice that these Phillies are not the genuine article.

You usually know by the middle of the second inning.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Jonathan Papelbon Should Be Next on Trading Block

It is Jonathan Papelbon, not Cliff Lee, whom the Phillies should be trying to move via waiver trade this month.

All indications now are that Lee is not going anywhere in 2012.  ESPN has reported that waivers on Lee expired over the weekend, and CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman tweeted today that the Los Angeles Dodgers were one of the teams that Lee could block a trade to.

But the Phillies are still eleven games under .500 and on a slow boat to nowhere with a little more than a month and a half to go.  This is not a time for the front office to idly count days passing.  This is a time for creativity, and action. 

The “trade deadline” has passed, but teams are still able to make deals.  The complication for the Phillies in trading Papelbon now (and for any trading partner) would be that Papelbon must clear waivers.  Explanations of the waiver trade process are abundant—a good one was provided recently by FoxSports.com.

Why trade Papelbon?  It is not his fault that his team has not had as many wins to save as anyone expected.  His numbers—3-4, 3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 24 saves, three blown saves—are in line with expectations given career marks of 26-23, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 243 saves and 32 blown saves.

Which is exactly why the Phillies should try to move Papelbon, now.

It is patently obvious that the forces that convinced the Phillies to sign Papelbon to a four-year, $50M contract this past offseason have proven ephemeral.

Papelbon’s signing, while costly, was justifiable under the assumption that the pitching-rich, hitting-challenged Phillies would be playing a lot of close games and would have many slim leads to protect.

Unfortunately, the hitting turned out to be not just challenged, but largely non-existent—as of this writing, the Phillies are 19th in Major League Baseball in both runs scored and slugging percentage, and they are 21st in on-base percentage.  That kind of production will not normally keep a closer busy…

…unless he is being asked to pitch in non-save situations, which Papelbon has done seventeen times so far in 2012.

The Phillies will need to be open to the idea of paying at least some of Papelbon’s contract if they hope to move him.  But while the idea of paying someone not to pitch for you is never appealing, the truth is that the Phillies as presently constituted are simply not the sort of team that can justify holding onto an eight-figure closer.  The sellout streak is over, you know.

Fortunately for the Phillies, there are some teams with serious postseason hopes, deep pockets…and iffy closer situations.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have settled on Ernesto Frieri as their closer, whose performance thus far has been spectacular.  But he got the job on May 23.  He was in San Diego to start the season.  Is that who the Angels want to take the ball with a playoff series on the line?

The Los Angeles Dodgers have tabbed Kenley Jansen to close their games.  But he has six blown saves so far, compared to 21 games saved.  The Dodgers have made it clear that they will be aggressive and will spend money.  They could decide that Papelbon is the last piece of the puzzle in 2012.

And the Detroit Tigers have walked the high wire with Jose Valverde closing games.  He has 21 saves against four blown saves…but his ERA is 3.63, and he has only 33 strikeouts against 20 walks.  Surely the Tigers would feel more confident giving the ball to Papelbon in a big spot.

At some level, it almost seems unfair to be targeting Papelbon as a player to move.  Like Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino before him, Papelbon would thus be punished for the shortcomings of his teammates, despite having a representative season in his own right.

But if the Phillies are serious about freeing up money to build around Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay in 2013, the time to slip out of the knot that is Papelbon’s contract is now.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Could Cliff Lee Clear Waivers, Be Traded by August 31?

Just because Cliff Lee is a Phillie today does not mean he will still be in Philadelphia when the season is over.

Even a week ago, the narrative was “the Phillies will try to win a bunch of games in a row and climb back in this thing.”

Then they got swept out of Atlanta, and the narrative became “Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence got traded for a bunch of guys you never heard of.”  So even though Lee did not go at the trade deadline, he should probably keep a panic bag packed just in case.

The “trade deadline” has passed, but teams are still able to make deals.  The complication for the Phillies in trading Lee now (and for any trading partner) would be that Lee must clear waivers.  Explanations of the waiver trade process are abundant—a good one was provided recently by FoxSports.com.

Analyzing where Lee might go after the trade deadline means presuming that he would clear waivers.  That is not a wild hypothesis, since Lee is still owed a ton of money and the Phillies have shown scant enthusiasm about eating much of it.

This exercise also means suspending disbelief as to whether Lee would block a proposed deal with his no-trade clause.  Information about this is incomplete—Lee’s contract says he can block trades to 21 teams, but we do not know which 21 they are. 

It may not matter, though, since Lee’s no-trade clause is his to waive.  Presented with a chance to win now rather than risk a rebuild (or at least a retool) with the Phillies, Lee may well choose to go.

The following teams would figure to have no interest in Lee, for financial or competitive reasons (in a lot of cases, both, actually):

• National League East:  Miami Marlins, New York Mets
• National League Central:  Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers
• National League West:  Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres
• American League East:  Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
• American League Central:  Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins
• American League West:  Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (nowhere to put him!), Oakland A’s, Seattle Mariners

So where might he go?

Lee is highly unlikely to end up in the National League East via trade. 

The Washington Nationals, it can be argued, do not really need him, as strong as their pitching has been. 

The Atlanta Braves could use Lee, especially after Brandon Beachy was lost for the year.  But the Phillies probably would not trade Lee to a division rival unless the rival overpaid significantly.

The National League Central is an intriguing potential destination, as the Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals all have postseason aspirations. 

Of the three, the Reds have the greatest need for pitching, but after committing to Joey Votto for a decade, the middle-market Reds may not be able to afford him. 

The Pirates have the same problem, though they would certainly prefer starting Lee over, say, James McDonald in a must-win game. 

The Cardinals are the least likely of the three to make this move, particularly if they fall much further back in the wild-card chase (four games out as of August 1).

Lee might actually favor a trade to the National League West, as both the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants play in pitchers’ parks and are poised to contend for a few seasons yet to come. 

But it probably will not happen.  Both the Dodgers (Shane Victorino) and Giants (Hunter Pence) just dealt with the Phillies and presumably could have added value to either deal to acquire Lee, but they did not do so.

Only one team in the American League East makes sense as a suitor for Cliff Lee. 

The New York Yankees were in the bidding for Lee when he signed the mega-deal with the Phillies.  The Yankees no doubt still remember how Lee stifled them in both the 2009 and 2010 postseasons.  And the Yankees have dealt with a series of starting pitching setbacks this season. 

The Yankees have the money and, as always, the need to win right now.  If a waiver trade deal is to happen, the Yankees are at or near the top of the list.

The American League Central has the Chicago White Sox and the Detroit Tigers battling for the division lead. Both teams have solid wild-card chances as well. 

Lee is probably not going to this division, for different monetary reasons: The White Sox probably cannot afford Lee because they traditionally do not spend that kind of money, whereas the Tigers have it but have already spent it on the likes of Justin Verlander, Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera.

That leaves one more team to consider. 

The Texas Rangers are going to have all they can handle from the Angels in the race for the division crown, and certainly the Rangers could see the Angels again in the postseason.  Could the Rangers open their heart (and their wallet) to Lee again?  Do not rule it out.

The Yankees and the Rangers are probably the favorites to acquire Lee if he is moved before August 31.  But if you have to bet on anything, bet on Lee being a Phillie in 2013. 

At least until July 31.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: How Long Can Ruben Amaro Jr. Keep Granting Fans’ Wishes?

Ruben Amaro Jr. is listening.

No matter how much GM-speak he rolls out, no matter how often he says that every decision he makes is tied to giving the Phillies the best chance to win, he hears those sounds.

Cole Hamels sat at his press conference on Wednesday, the announcement of his six-year, $144 million contract extension, and talked about the various factors (you know, besides all that jingle) that convinced him to stay in Philadelphia instead of taking his chances in free agency.

One of the things he referenced was unexpected.

Hamels talked about the response he received walking off the mound at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday, July 21.  He had just made a yard sale of the eighth inning, giving up a game-tying home run to Melky Cabrera, then allowing three more baserunners before surrendering the ball after 7.2 innings, five earned runs and 10 hits. 

You imagine that if, say, Joe Blanton had just done that, the fans would either boo or be nervously silent.

But Hamels was still as likely to leave Philadelphia as he was to stay in that moment, and the fans knew it.  And they stood and cheered in appreciation for all he had given them in past seasons, and in this one.

“Words can’t really describe the emotions that you get, and the way the fans were standing and cheering, that was ultimately the deciding point to be here,” Hamels said.

You have to believe Ruben Amaro Jr. also saw those people standing and heard them cheering.

You wonder, though, whether he hears—and listens—to too much of that sort of thing.

Since he took the reins of the franchise in 2009, Ruben Amaro Jr.’s most prominent moves have read like this:

July 2009:  Traded four minor leaguers to the Cleveland Indians for Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco

December 2009:  Traded three minor leaguers to the Toronto Blue Jays for Roy Halladay; traded Lee to the Seattle Mariners for three minor leaguers, granting Halladay a three-year, $60 million contract extension in the process

April 2010:  Signed Ryan Howard to a five-year, $125 million contract extension

December 2010:  Signed Cliff Lee to a five-year, $120 million contract

July 2011:  Traded four minor leaguers to the Houston Astros for Hunter Pence

November 2011:  Signed Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year, $50 million contract

December 2011:  Signed Jimmy Rollins to a three-year, $33 million contract

July 2012:  Signed Cole Hamels to a six-year, $144 million contract

Eight prominent moves, and you will notice that the only truly unpopular piece of any of it was the trade of Lee to Seattle.  Which, you will also notice, Ruben Amaro Jr. promptly fixed by signing Lee as a free agent a year later.

The problem with all of this is not the money.  Unless you own a piece of the Phillies (I’m guessing you don’t) you have no reason to care how much money the team spends on any player. 

Besides, do you think the Phillies are that worried about things like the luxury tax?  Parking at the games is $15 now; soon enough it will be $20.  Beer at the games is $7.75; soon enough it will be $9.50.  Those issues tend to take care of themselves.

No, the problem is the unshakable feeling that Ruben Amaro Jr. is running the Phillies the way an impetuous rotisserie team owner manages his roster.  Except it is not his whim that prompts the trades and the signings…it is stuff like the emotion pouring from the seats when Hamels leaves the mound for what looks like the last time.

The Hamels signing, while an expensive one, was probably the right decision for the franchise.  After splashing cash at so many other players to sign them, retain them or extend them, and watching those players age and decline precipitously this season, letting a 28-year-old ace walk away was never going to fly.

This season, this trade deadline, though, is where we will find out whether he can do some unpopular things like trading the likes of Lee (again), Pence and Shane Victorino for the ultimate betterment of the franchise. We will see whether Ruben Amaro Jr. can avoid becoming another object lesson of the old baseball adage that says if you listen to the fans too much, pretty soon you’ll be sitting with them.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Cole Hamels Can Look at Cliff Lee and See His Future

Cole Hamels is apparently considering a long-term, long dollars offer from the Philadelphia Phillies. 

If the fan base’s treatment of Cliff Lee is a barometer, Hamels might want to think on it some more.

When the Phillies signed Cliff Lee to his five-year, $120 million deal two offseasons ago, the prevailing narrative was that the fans never wanted Lee to leave Philadelphia in the first place.  It was also pretty apparent that Lee never wanted to leave Philadelphia, either, as he moped publicly about being traded away from Philadelphia.

Prominent athletes almost never do that.

But there Lee was, when the Texas Rangers landed him in the World Series in October 2010, and the Phillies were facing the San Francisco Giants in the other semifinal. Lee made it known he would love to pitch against the Phillies and beat them.  It still bothered him.  It was like hearing a buddy grouse just a little too much about his ex-girlfriend—if he was really over her, she would never come up again.

At Lee’s December 2010 press conference announcing his return to Philadelphia, Lee said things that Phillies fans always wanted to hear. 

“I don’t know what the fans do to create that much more volume and excitement in the stadium, but it’s definitely something extra here,” Lee said. “They’re passionate fans. They understand what’s going on. They don’t need a teleprompter to tell them to get up and cheer.”

Smash cut to July 2012, though, and look at Phillies fans now.  Lee is 1-6 with an earned run average of 3.72. 

Granted, his WHIP is 1.16 and he has 106 strikeouts in 111.1 innings pitched. Comparing those numbers against his career to date, he is more or less in line: career ERA of 3.65, WHIP of 1.22, 1429 strikeouts in 1753 innings pitched.  

And, it’s not enough.

Lee is one of the first names mentioned these days when the fans call “WIP” or “The Fanatic” to propose trades as they bail out on this season. Trade Lee back to Texas, he was there before. Trade Lee to the Yankees, they wanted him when he was a free agent and they can afford his contract. 

Just get rid of him for whatever you can get, they say.

That didn’t take long.

So, here is Cole Hamels, 2008 World Series Most Valuable Player, a Phillie right from the start whose time has come to take the Phillies’ offer to stay, or to finish out the season and wait for the rest of the league to back up armored trucks to his front door.

Of all the ridiculous things that fans say about players in Hamels’ situation, No. 1 on the list is the idea of the “hometown discount.”  And, No. 2 on the list is the idea that a player should want to stay with “his team.”

Cole Hamels cannot be thinking about giving anyone a discount. Cole Hamels has one chance to sign this deal—and by “this deal” it must be understood as the contract that sets him up for life (unless he goes all Curt Schilling on us.)  Leaving even $5 million on the table in this circumstance is just silly.  Make the Phillies, or whoever, pay every cent they can.

As for staying in Philadelphia because he began here, well, so what? Steve Carlton was the greatest Phillie pitcher of the modern era. Where did he pitch for the first seven seasons of his career? 

St. Louis, that’s where.

This is Cole Hamels’ seventh season in Philadelphia.

The Phillies fans’ hue and cry to retain Hamels today is real and constant. But, he should not hear any of it.

Because, if he starts 2015 off 1-6 with an ERA of 3.72, a WHIP of 1.16 and 106 strikeouts in 111.1 innings pitched, the response will be “do you think the Dodgers are still interested?”

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Ryan Howard or Alex Rodriguez: Which Is MLB’s Worst Contract?

You cannot decide which of these contracts is a more abject disaster without knowing the numbers.  (All data for this article was taken from www.baseball-reference.com.)

Ryan Howard’s contract with the Philadelphia Phillies runs through 2016.  He will make $20 million in 2013, then $25M per year for the 2014-2016 seasons.  At that point, he will have made $95M for those four seasons, and the Phillies will then have the choice of paying him $23M more for 2017 or (more likely it seems) buying that year out for another $10M.  So Howard is guaranteed $105M through 2016.

Alex Rodriguez‘s contract with the New York Yankees runs through 2017.  His salaries for the next five seasons: $28M, $25M, $21M, $20M, $20M.  He will also receive a $1M bonus in 2013 and a $3M bonus in 2014.  By the end of the 2017 season, Rodriguez will have made $118M for those five seasons and the contract will be over. 

There is a kicker: Rodriguez will receive $6M for each of the following home runs he hits, if he ever does: #660 (ties Willie Mays), #714 (ties Babe Ruth), #755 (ties Hank Aaron) and #s 762 and 763 (ties and breaks Barry Bonds’s record).

Rodriguez has 643 home runs now, so the Mays mark is definitely within reach.  Ruth’s total is also in play, even if his skills continue to erode. Rodriguez has five-and-a-half seasons from now to hit 71 more home runs.  That’s less than 14 per year.  That’s doable. 

As such, Rodriguez is likely into the Yankees for $130M by the time his deal expires.

Armed with the figures, you can now assess each of these contracts in context.

Rodriguez will be 42 years old in October of 2017.  He has not played 140 games in a season since 2007. Last year right knee and left thumb injuries contributed to limit him to 99 games.  He has played 88 of the Yankees’ 91 games so far this year, but that has not kept his numbers from continuing a gradual and seemingly unstoppable slide:

2007: 54 HR, 156 RBI, .314 BA, 1.067 OPS (his last Most Valuable Player campaign)

2008: 35 HR, 103 RBI, .302 BA, .965 OPS

2009: 30 HR, 100 RBI, .286 BA, .933 OPS

2010: 30 HR, 125 RBI, .270 BA, .847 OPS

2011: 16 HR, 62 RBI, .276 BA, .823 OPS

Rodriguez’s OPS has thus decreased for four straight years. To date in 2012 it is .788.

Perhaps more troubling for the Yankees is that, as Rodriguez has become older and more injury-prone, his ability to credibly play third base has just about disappeared.  “So what,” you might say, “they’ll just DH him.” 

That would work, except the Yankees also have Mark Teixeira under contract through 2016 at $22.5M per season, and you have to believe he will be ready for some days off sooner than later as he approaches his mid-30s. 

For that matter, Derek Jeter cannot play shortstop forever. A way to keep The Captain around would be to stash him at DH.  Tough to do with Rodriguez and Teixeira in the way.

Howard will be 36 years old in October of 2016.  Until this season, following a freak Achilles tendon injury on the last play of the 2011 National League Division Series, Howard had played no fewer than 143 games since becoming the Phillies’ full-time starter at first base in 2006 with seasons of 159, 160 and 162 games to his credit.  Howard’s numbers have also slipped some:

2007: 47 HR, 136 RBI, .268 BA, .976 OPS

2008: 48 HR, 146 RBI, .251 BA, .881 OPS

2009: 45 HR, 141 RBI, .279 BA, .931 OPS

2010: 31 HR, 108 RBI, .276 BA, .859 OPS

2011: 33 HR, 116 RBI, .253 BA, .835 OPS

The eye-opener for Phillies fans is the significant drop-offs in batting average and OPS in 2011 before the current five-year contract extension even began. 

Howard also suffers from the plague that most one-dimensional sluggers carry: For his career, he has more strikeouts (1,214) than hits of any type (1,047).  Watching Howard every day means seeing a lot of futile waves over sliders from left-handed relief specialists.

And where the Yankees at least have the option of hiding Rodriguez at DH sometimes, no one who has watched Howard play the field believes he can do anything in the National League but play first base—a pretty mediocre first base at that.

So which of these contracts is worse?

It has to be A-Rod’s.

Much of the value of Rodriguez’s contract, and much of its length, was tied to the thought that he would some day break Bonds’s record, returning the title of “all-time home run king” to the Bronx.  When he was still hitting 30 bombs a year, Yankee fans (and executives, no doubt) were talking about 800 career home runs as Rodriguez’s ceiling. 

As seen above, though, Rodriguez’s home run pace is much more suggestive of a player whose probable endpoint is more like 750 home runs. 

Unbelievably great…but if he finishes third behind Aaron and Bonds—I order them that way intentionally—it is just not the return on investment the Yankees got into this for.  And the Yankees will almost certainly struggle to find places in the field where he can play without hurting the team…or himself.

Comparatively, while Howard’s contract may ultimately prove unwise, he has the following factors in his favor at least when discussing him against Rodriguez:  He is younger and nobody has tied his contract value to catching Barry Bonds. 

Would the Phillies like to see Howard hit 500 home runs in their uniform?  Of course.  But he only has 287 home runs now.  Do you see four 50+ home run seasons in Howard’s future?  If so, you are the only one.  Ironically then, Howard benefits from what must necessarily now be tempered expectations.

At this point, if Howard just resumes his more recent paces of 30/100/.255/.850 for a few more years, the Phillies will have to be pretty satisfied.  If that happens, Howard’s contract still will not be considered a great deal for anyone but Howard.

But at least it won’t be the dud firework that A-Rod’s will almost certainly turn out to be.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

How the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies Compare to MLB’s 10 Latest ‘Bust’ Teams

It will take more than three wins against the terrible Colorado Rockies and the very injured Los Angeles Dodgers to save the Phillies‘ season from being a bust.

Five straight National League East titles, three megastar aces returning—the Phillies were ticketed everywhere to get back to the postseason.  No, they probably were not going to win 102 games again, but with a second wild card in play, it seemed nearly impossible that a team of this pedigree could lose its way.

Well, their recent three-game win streak brought them all the way back to…40-51, 13 games out of the division lead and four games out of fourth place in the division.  That tempting second wild card?  Ten games away.

You can call this season anything you like.  I am calling it a bust.

The Phillies have a lot of company in decimating the hopes of fanbases.  Meet the devastating bust teams of the past decade.

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Reasons Not to Quit on This Season

The only thing keeping the Phillies‘ faint hopes of making the postseason alive is the relative mediocrity of the teams in front of them. Admittedly, when your team is 37-50 and looking bad doing it, you have to look hard for reasons to keep hoping. In this case, that means finding the flaws in the National League teams presently ahead of the Phillies. 

You can be sure of this: It is a very, very good thing that the Phillies are not in the American League, because they could never leapfrog enough of those teams to get home. In the National League, though?  Stranger things have happened…though not as strange as the Phillies catching the Nationals to win the division. That is not going to happen.

As for these next ten teams? Do you feel lucky?

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies: Golden Age Ended Faster Than Anyone Hoped

The end of this dominant era of Phillies baseball got here much sooner than anyone thought possible.

In 2008, when this Phillies team was young, they had the best young slugging first baseman in baseball, the best second baseman in baseball, the best young left-handed starter in baseball and a closer who had just concluded a 47-for-47 season finishing off wins. 

In that moment, it was not “can you believe they won?”  It was “how many do you think they’ll get?”

2009 was as special as 2008 had been, right up to the point where the Big Engine That Could met the Bigger Engine That Did. It was not as though Phillies fans could complain, anyway.  You will never forget it if you were in the building to see Jimmy Rollins’ base-clearing triple in the bottom of the ninth off Jonathan Broxton that won Game 4 and essentially finished off that NLCS. 

And there was no shame in losing to a $200 million-plus baseball monolith, the New York Yankees, a team whose best player in the Series (Hideki Matsui) was a platoon designated-hitting luxury who would shame the Kardashians, right? 

Sure, maybe the Phillies traded away their best pitcher from that World Series (Cliff Lee) for a bunch of guys who would soon be selling insurance, but still—this was the Golden Age of Phillies baseball. 

The 2010 season was spectacular. A relative waltz to the postseason and, when they got there, uber-stud Roy Halladay tossed a no-hitter in the divisional series against the Cincinnati Reds. 

Everything was going great. Right up to the point when Halladay gave up two bombs to journeyman slob Cody Ross on his way to losing Game 1 of the NLCS at home to the San Francisco Giants. 

The Phillies lost that series in six games.

Okay, but upsets like Giants-over-Phillies in the 2010 NLCS are once in a lifetime, right?.  The season ticket invoices came out for 2011, and guess what? 

Phillies fans got their woobie Lee back. He never should have left. 

What a rotation: Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt. Phillies fans had never seen a 120-win team in person, but they were fairly confident that they were about to. 

They came close, too. Only an eight-game losing streak after the division and home field throughout the playoffs had been sealed up tight kept the 2011 Phillies from winning 110 games. All there really was to worry about was whether the Milwaukee Brewers could out-slug the Phillies in a seven-game series. 

You know, once they quickly dispatched with the wild-card St. Louis Cardinals.

Walking out of Citizens Bank Park after the artist formerly known as Chris Carpenter had completely stifled the Phillies in Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS—with the Cardinals dog-piling on each other as Ryan Howard lay clutching his heel in the fetal position on the ground—Phillies fans were overcome with the sensation of what closing time felt like in college. 

The night, like so many nights before it, had been imbued with rich possibility, and informed by so many of the potent nights that had come before. 

Then, in the span of but a few hours it had come crashing down on their heads, like the rejection of would-be partners who had found better offers or just spurned theirs on principle.  All that was left was the walk of shame back to the car, for the drive home with their tails tucked away and a winter of more questions than answers. Again.

And now this.

Here are some grisly numbers from the 2012 Phillies: 37-50, 17-27 at home, 14 games out of first place in the National League East, 10 games out of the second wild-card, six teams ahead of them for that second wild-card. 

Here are some grislier numbers: $95 million and four more seasons on Ryan Howard’s deal, $72 million and three more seasons on Cliff Lee’s deal and $35 million still coming to Chase Utley ($15 million) and Roy Halladay ($20 million) in 2013. 

Of course, they do not owe Cole Hamels any more money. That is only because, as you may have heard, his contract is up at the end of this season, and he is going to get paid.  Ironically, trading Hamels for at least one blue chip bat is probably the best move the team can make now.

Even if you may have seen this coming, you still have to be stunned by how fast it all ended.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

« Previous Page — Next Page »