What Is Ryan Howard’s Impact on the Phillies If Fully Healthy in 2014?

What would a fully healthy Ryan Howard mean to the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies?

Not as much as you might think.

There are two statistics that Phillies fans and Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. point to as proof that a healthy Howard could change the team’s fortunes. As reported by Dennis Deitch of the Delaware County Daily Times:

• Phillies record in 2012-13 with Howard in the starting lineup: 77-63
• Phillies record in 2012-13 without Howard in the starting lineup: 77-107

A simple calculation shows that 77 wins out of 140 games played yields a .550 winning percentage, which over a 162-game season would yield 89 wins.

In 2013, 89 wins would have left the Phillies one win shy of the playoffs, but such a season would have been a lot more fun to watch than the 73 wins they actually posted.

Unfortunately, the simple statistics above are pretty much undone by the more complicated statistics that follow.

Dan Szymborski of ESPN.com set forth at length the reasons why Howard’s five-year, $125 million contract extension was the worst contract in baseball history.

And Szymborski‘s analysis portends dark days for Howard and the Phillies.

For starters, Szymborski noted that “Howard’s top comps are not a pretty group—Carlos Pena, Richie Sexson, Greg Luzinski, Jim Gentile, Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder—and these are all players who aged poorly.”

Then Szymborski ran the numbers with his proprietary ZiPS system to project Howard’s batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage lines. Here is what came out:

In a 2013 Philadelphia environment, ZiPS projected Howard’s 2013 season at .243/.333/.487 when his deal was signed. Before the 2011 season, the 2013 projection had dropped to .241/.325/.472; fast-forward another year and his 2013 projection was .246/.328/.476; and before this season, he was projected to hit .242/.325/.463.

As Szymborski harshly but fairly put it, Howard’s actual performance in 2013 (a slash line of .266/.319/.465) was “exactly what you would expect from a one-dimensional slugger in his early 30s in the middle of a normal decline phase for a player of his type.”

Probably the most alarming part of Howard’s drop-off is the plummeting power numbers. The following players slugged .465 or better in 2013: Torii Hunter, Nate Schierholtz and Pedro Alvarez. Only Alvarez qualifies as a power hitter of those three, and he hit .233 in 2013.

Fangraphs.com has the Phillies winning 74 games in 2014. Their projection is of course silent as to Howard’s health or lack thereof in 2014.

But the idea that Howard has a healthy, productive season in him that could improve the Phillies by 15 games trends beyond statistical improbability and into practical impossibility.

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Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report: Latest Updates Heading into Spring Training

The Philadelphia Phillies are noticeably and understandably excited about the start of spring training in Clearwater, Fla.:

Given the painfully dull and disappointing offseason, it is no wonder the Phillies want to talk about something else. 

With pitchers and catchers set to report on Feb. 13, baseball is set to make its annual re-emergence as the days steadily lengthen and spring gets ever nearer.

The Phillies are an old team who, more than most, will need to run very lucky with health to compete for a playoff berth in 2014. That starts with their overall condition going into spring training.

You will recall that a number of prominent Phillies ended the 2013 season on the shelf.

Ryan Howard is the biggest name of the sometimes walking wounded. The Phillies have $85 million more left to pay Howard on his abominable contract extension. They would love to see him do something to earn that money in 2014.

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is optimistic that Howard can bounce back. “Ryan Howard is at one hundred percent, finally. It’s the first time he’s actually felt normal. He’s down there at Clearwater hitting and working out,” Amaro Jr. recently told Angelo Cataldi on the WIP-FM 94 morning show (h/t CBS.com).

In that same interview, Amaro Jr. indicated that setup man Mike Adams is “throwing well” and that he had received “very good news” about the right-hander from Phillies coaches who watched Adams work.

Center fielder Ben Revere did not play again in 2013 after breaking his his right foot on July 13. The best news on Revere’s injury is no news—there has been no recent indication from any news outlets that Revere will not be ready for spring training or anything less than 100 percent when the season starts.

Likewise, right-handed starting pitcher Kyle Kendrick ended the season on the disabled list. But the Phillies just gave him a one-year contract for almost $7.7 million to avoid an arbitration hearing, so presumably he is fit to pitch.

Finally, fellow right-hander Jonathan Pettibone is coming back from a shoulder strain that ended his 2013 season in late July. Pettibone recently told Jim Salisbury of csnphilly.com that “I feel good now. Going into a season, it’s the best I’ve felt in a while. I’m ready to go.”

Without a medical degree, it is nearly impossible to know just how healthy any of these players really are. The good news is that, as of right now, none of them are disabled and none of them are complaining of pain.

The Phillies need those good feelings to last all summer long.

 

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2014 Predictions for Philadelphia Phillies’ Offseason Acquisitions

As Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com aptly put it, the Phillies are “giving off a bit of an ‘all good things must come to an end’ vibe this winter.”

Crasnick noted that a significant reason for the unsettling feeling is “the team’s roster moves have been less compelling” than either the announcement of its new television contract or the dispatching of Chris Wheeler and Gary Matthews from the broadcast booth.

It is almost never a good thing when the off-the-field issues are more interesting—exciting?—than the team that will take the field. But look at these acquisitions and judge for yourself whether they were interesting or exciting.

Assuming there are no further acquisitions, Marlon Byrd was the big prize of the offseason.

Yeah, that Marlon Byrd.

The 36-year-old went from being nearly out of baseball entirely in 2012 to a comeback in 2013 and now a two-year, $16 million contract from the Phillies.

Byrd’s slash line (home runs/runs batted in/batting average) in 2013 was 24/88/.291. The Phillies would take another season like that right now and never look back.

Unfortunately, Byrd’s slash lines in 2011 and 2012 were 9/35/.276 and 1/9/.210.

Because Byrd is almost guaranteed a ton of at-bats this season, his counting numbers should be decent. There is no safe projection of his batting average, though. A line of 18/75/.267 in 140 games feels about right.

Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona) got a one-year deal worth $4.5 million after having an unspectacular 2013 for Tampa Bay. 

Hernandez is going to eat innings as the Phillies’ fourth starter. If you disregard his disastrous 2012 season, Hernandez has taken the ball a lot since 2010. Unfortunately for the Phillies, he often ends up taking a new ball from the umpire after the one he just threw left the yard.

The right-hander surrendered 24 home runs in 151 innings, pitching half his games in pitcher-friendly Tampa last season. Hernandez will now throw in the not-so-friendly confines—for pitchers, anyway—of Citizens Bank Park for half of 2014.

Hernandez was 6-13 with an earned run average just under five and 113 strikeouts in 2013 for a good Rays team. In Philadelphia, to hope for much better than that record with a lower ERA and a few more strikeouts is probably asking too much.

There are other names on the Phillies’ transaction list—Wil Nieves, Brad Lincoln, Sean O’Sullivan—but only Nieves seems likely to come north from Clearwater and will do so only as a backup to Carlos Ruiz.

The most interesting story in spring training is likely to be Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. Since Marc Normandin of SBNation noted that Gonzalez’s “physical cost him tens of millions of dollars,” projecting the 27-year-old’s performance would be rank guesswork.

Even more so than predicting what Byrd or Hernandez will do, of course.

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Predicting How Each Philadelphia Phillies Arbitration Situation Will Play out

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ arbitration list was underwhelming even before Kyle Kendrick and John Mayberry Jr. reached terms with the club on one-year deals.

Kendrick will get $7.675 million, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post, after going 10-13 with a 4.70 earned run average on a 73-win team. Mayberry Jr. signed for $1,587,500 after 353 at-bats where he hit .227, according to Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News.

Both of these cases remind of the quote attributed to legendary (for the wrong reasons) baseball general manager Branch Rickey, who told Hall of Fame slugger Ralph Kiner that “we finished in last place with you; we can finish in last place without you.”

That the Phillies feel compelled to pay Kendrick and Mayberry Jr. these wages speaks audibly of the trouble the franchise is in.

Two arbitration candidates remain—center fielder Ben Revere and left-handed relief pitcher Antonio Bastardo. Both are hoping to become as overpaid as Kendrick and Mayberry Jr.

Per Baseball Prospectus, Revere made $515,000.00 in 2013 and is seeking a raise to $2.425 million in 2014. The Phillies contend Revere should make $1.4 million this season.

Looking over the MLB Trade Rumors 2013 Arbitration Tracker, one-dimensional speed players like Emilio Bonifacio ($2.6 million) and Everth Cabrera ($1.275 million) are not darlings of the arbitration process. After missing half a season with a foot injury, Revere is unlikely to get to $2 million for a 2014 salary. $1.8 million would be a reasonable result for Revere.

Bastardo settled for $1.4 million before arbitration last season. His additional year of service time has upped the range on his potential earnings between the $1.675 million the Phillies want to pay him and the $2.5 million he is asking for.

That Bastardo is asking for such a significant raise after missing 50 games due to suspension redefines hubris. Bastardo is another guy for whom $2 million is just too much. This feels like a $1.9 million outcome.

Ideally the Phillies would avoid arbitration with Revere by extending his contract and let the cards fall where they will with Bastardo, who is probably not in the team’s long-term plans.

Regardless, neither player will break Philadelphia’s bank in 2014. Not like its aging core will.

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5 Things the Phillies Still Need to Do Before the Start of Spring Training

The Philadelphia Phillies have been busy this offseason—just not in the way that most fans might have wanted.

Shopping in a free-agent market featuring great hitters like Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran and Curtis Granderson, the Phillies came away with Marlon Byrd.

Top-tier starting pitchers Matt Garza, Ervin Santana and A.J. Burnett remain unsigned, but the Phillies appear unlikely to go back into the piggy bank after signing lesser-light Roberto Hernandez.

To be fair, the Phillies probably did not save enough money to land any of those big-name players by whacking Chris Wheeler and Gary Matthews.

So what is left for the Phillies to accomplish before the buses leave Citizens Bank Park for Clearwater, Fla., and spring training? Let’s take a look.

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Philadelphia Phillies Send Polarizing Pundit Chris Wheeler to Eternal Offseason

The Philadelphia Phillies announced recently that Chris Wheeler would no longer be a part of their television broadcast team.

When word broke that the Phillies had sold their broadcast rights to Comcast SportsNet, it put even long-term employees like Wheeler in the cross-hairs. Old employees and new bosses rarely mix, and Wheeler’s 37 years of service did not save him an ungainly end.

Wheeler’s tendency to inspire either sincere respect and admiration, or genuine aggravation and disgust in his audience members probably did not help him when the corporate masters started to sharpen the ax.

Wheeler’s sins in the booth were legion, but some of the prevalent ones (to this writer) were: 

• consistently overstating the obvious, like how a ground out to the shortstop with a man on second and nobody out is a bad baseball play  
• attesting that all hitters want is for the umpire to call a consistent strike zone, even if it means that some “balls” will be strikes and vice versa that night (which is a ridiculous argument by the way—if an umpire calls a pitch three inches off the outside corner a strike forty times in a given game, he made forty mistakes in that game, not one or none)
• asserting that the relief pitcher who just came into a two-on, two-out jam in a tie game “needs to throw strikes”
• breathlessly intoning after a Major League Baseball player made a just-above-average play look easy that, “man, these guys are just so good”

Wheeler had so many of these verbal tics and crutches that a dozen or so were beautifully memorialized on a bingo card that is the epitome of excellence in so many ways.

Even after his firing, the indignities keep being heaped on Wheeler.

94 WIP radio host Angelo Cataldi recently remarked that Wheeler’s greatest moment as a Phillies broadcaster was the last out of the 2008 World Series because Wheeler pumped his fists quietly and stayed out of Harry Kalas’ way.

And based on the fact that former Phillies closer Brad Lidge (who got that last out Kalas described) has already turned the job down according to Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, it appears that Wheeler was fired without a replacement ready to go.

Ouch.

You know things are bad when ESPN’s Keith Olbermann is the one who rides to your defense.

Olbermann’s biggest gaffe in chiding the Phillies for firing Wheeler was referring to him as “the link to the glory days of Rich Ashburn and Harry Kalas.” Speaking Wheeler’s name in the same breath with Kalas and Ashburn is sacrilege. As Wheeler proved, being around greatness a lot does not make it rub off.

Additionally, it was actually the network that let Wheeler go, according to Rob Maaddi of the Associated Press. Olbermann knows a thing or two about that.

Despite all this, it is sad to see Wheeler dumped so unceremoniously. Did he occasionally make the Phillies broadcast his baseball pulpit? Yes he did. Was he sometimes annoying? Also yes.

But the names being tossed around as Wheeler’s possible replacement, occasional broadcasters like former Phillies, Ricky Bottalico and Chris Coste per Brian Howard of Philadelphia Magazine, really are just guys who used to play baseball.

There may be some initial expressions of relief and satisfaction from seeing Wheeler’s run in the booth end.

It will be interesting, though, to see whether those same Phillies fans still feel that way next spring as a new voice tries to find his way, while the team tries to wring one more season from an aging core.

The same “one more season” Wheeler will never get.

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Projecting the Philadelphia Phillies’ 5-Man Starting Rotation for 2014

There are two possible five-man starting-pitching rotations for the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies—the one they should have and the one they probably will have.

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. all but conclusively answered the question of which five pitchers will be in the rotation when the Phillies leave Clearwater in March in remarks he made recently, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Nobody needs Amaro Jr. to confirm that Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Kyle Kendrick are the first three pitchers in the rotation. They held those positions in 2013, and no one in the organization has the stuff or the track record to take any of their slots entering 2014.

It is with reference to the last two spots in the rotation as the Phillies are currently constructed that guidance is needed. Amaro provided it in the context of the signing of Roberto Hernandez in the Gelb piece: “This is not someone who is going to slide into the top of the rotation. He’s in the bottom of the rotation. But we need some depth.”

Where is the rest of that depth going to come from? 

“We’ve talked a lot internally about some of our options,” Amaro Jr. continued. “(Jonathan) Pettibone and Ethan Martin will be stretched out in spring training. Hopefully that will create enough depth for us. We’re going to try to continue to look for more depth there.”

The wild card (in every sense of that term) is Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. D.J. Short of Hardball Talk laid out the caveats on Gonzalez concisely in October: “While Gonzalez was originally expected to sign a six-year, $48 million contract with the Phillies, the deal was reworked amid concerns about the health of his throwing elbow.” Gonzalez signed for $12 million over three years.

The Phillies would be thrilled to see Gonzalez go to spring training and dominate. More likely, though, he will start the season in Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Based on the arms the Phillies have on hand, the rotation is almost certainly going to be Hamels/Lee/Kendrick/Hernandez followed by Pettibone, if he is healthy, or Martin if Pettibone is still unable to go.

The rotation should be Hamels/Lee/free-agent signing/Kendrick/Hernandez. Matt Garza, Ervin Santana or A.J. Burnett would slot really nicely into the No. 3 role, and any of those right-handers could be used to split up left-handers Hamels and Lee.

But don’t count on such a signing. Amaro Jr. said: “(W)e’re trying to get the best bang for our buck. In this marketplace, it’s tough because the prices have soared pretty significantly.”

Oh well.

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Missing Pieces the Philadelphia Phillies Could Still Land

Ladbrokes has the Philadelphia Phillies at 33-1 odds to win the 2014 World Series.

Let that sink in for a minute.

Those are the same odds as the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago White Sox. Those odds put the Phillies well behind the following teams, all 25-1: Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants and Baltimore Orioles. Only the Pirates even made the 2013 Major League Baseball playoffs from that group.

Even more disconcerting is the wood the Phillies apparently need to chop within the National League East. The Washington Nationals are the second choice in the whole field at 9-1 (behind the Los Angeles Dodgers). The Atlanta Braves are 16-1.

Since the Phillies will not take the field until March 31, 2014 in Arlington, Texas, the only way they can improve their odds now is in free agency.

Unfortunately for the Phillies, the free-agent market looks like the sale racks at the mall on Christmas Eve. Even if they have what you are looking for, they probably do not have it in your size or at your price.

Nelson Cruz is still out there, primarily because his contract demands appear to ignore his recent 50-game suspension for violating MLB‘s substance-abuse policy. Cruz wants to be paid as if every number he posted for the past few seasons is untainted and repeatable. But there is taint, and there is doubt.

After Cruz, the pickings are even thinner. Do Kendrys Morales or Nate McLouth excite you? Probably not. Barring some unforeseen trade, the Phillies are probably all set in the everyday eight.

That may be all right, as long as the Phillies do the smart thing and land one of the free-agent starting pitchers still looking for work.

CBSSports.com’s free-agent list ranks them in this order: Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, A.J. Burnett and Bronson Arroyo. Yes, Masahiro Tanaka is ahead of all those guys. But the Phillies are not about to pay Tanaka‘s posting fee plus whatever his contract will eventually call for.

Because the Phillies have committed to winning in 2014 despite all evidence pointing to a needed rebuild, they really have to fire one more bullet and land another above-average starting pitcher.

Any rotation headed by Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee is going to be competitive. But backing them up with Kyle Kendrick and a string of unknowns won the Phillies 73 games in 2013.

Specific to the Phillies, an added bonus to the starters still available in free agency is that they are all right-handed. Adding a Santana or a Garza to the rotation would enable the Phillies to slot the new man in between southpaws Hamels and Lee.

It is not my money, nor is it yours.

So let the Phillies dip into the piggy bank for one more starting pitcher to deepen the rotation and, just maybe, enhance those World Series odds in the process.

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Philadelphia Phillies Big Offseason Questions That Still Need to Be Answered

The only legitimate questions that need answers where the Philadelphia Phillies are concerned involve their pitching.

Not that that is necessarily a good thing.

Saying there are no questions to be answered on the offensive side of the club does not mean that the Phillies have their hitting all figured out.

It just means that, barring some shocking development like a multiplayer trade or a big-money free-agent signing like Nelson Cruz, the everyday eight are basically set.

The Opening Day lineup is likely to look something like this:

• Ben Revere, CF
• Jimmy Rollins, SS
• Chase Utley, 2B
• Ryan Howard, 1B
• Marlon Byrd, RF
• Domonic Brown, LF
• Carlos Ruiz, C
• Cody Asche, 3B

It almost certainly will not last, of course. With five regulars in their mid-to-late 30s, injuries and ineffectiveness are sure to compel manager Ryne Sandberg to shuffle the deck frequently. But that looks like the lineup for now.

The two questions that still must be answered are therefore:

1. Who will be Philadelphia’s fifth starter?
2. Will Jonathan Papelbon still be a Phillie on Opening Day?

The Phillies rotation starts out hot with Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee in the first two positions. The roller-coaster ride that is Kyle Kendrick will be the third starter, and the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona will be the fourth starter.

After that, well, it does not look all that promising.

John Lannan is probably not coming back, though he is still unsigned. Jonathan Pettibone pitched well enough during his time in the rotation to deserve a look, but little has been heard from him since he was shut down in August.

According to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, that fifth rotation spot might go to a wholly unknown commodity. The Phillies committed $12 million to Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez in August, and they may just close their eyes and take their chances with him.

“(J)ust this week, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said Gonzalez would be competing with Jonathan Pettibone and others for the fifth spot in the rotation,” Zolecki recently wrote.

Regrettably for the Phillies, the question surrounding their closer position is somewhat the inverse of their fifth starter issue. The Phillies are not sure they have a competent fifth starting pitcher and very much want one. The Phillies know they have a capable closer—and they seem to want him gone.

There are barriers to moving Papelbon; specifically, his lost velocity and the $26 million he is still guaranteed for the next two seasons.

But stranger things have happened. As Justin Klugh of Philly.com recently reported, the Baltimore Orioles “have recently gone through a mess of a closer situation.”

First they lost incumbent closer Jim Johnson. Then they had Grant Balfour signed but backed out of the deal after his physical scared them off, per Matt Snyder of CBSSports.com.

Could the Phillies seize on the Orioles‘ desperation and rid themselves of Papelbon? Probably not without eating most of his contract—which means Papelbon is probably staying.

So, you know, happy holidays and all that.

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Grading Philadelphia Phillies’ Moves so Far This Offseason

Philadelphia Phillies fans have been reduced to being thankful for potentially disastrous moves the team did not make.

Specifically, the Phillies did not trade Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee or Domonic Brown at the Major League Baseball winter meetings last week.

The three signings the Phillies have made this offseason—Carlos Ruiz, Marlon Byrd and Roberto Hernandez—addressed specific needs for a catcher, a right-handed power bat in the outfield and a right-handed starting pitcher in the rotation.

That is the best you can say for those three signings—that they addressed specific needs. Because no one is buying tickets to Citizens Bank Park to watch Carlos Ruiz catch or to watch Marlon Byrd play the outfield.

And you would have to predict that Roberto Hernandez, he of the 6-13 record with a 4.89 earned run average for a 92-win team, is not going to be much of a draw.

So the best moves the Phillies have made this offseason are the ones they have (so far) refrained from.

Phillies fans love Chase Utley. He is still a player people want to see.

They used to love Ryan Howard, and if we’re being honest it would only take a torrid April or May with a dozen or so bombs to bring that feeling back.

The same is true for Jimmy Rollins—a hot start for J-Roll in 2014 will bring fans to their feet for him again.

Jonathan Papelbon’s act still plays when the Phillies are winning. Not so much when they’re not.

On recent form, though, none of those players really moves the needle from a ticket-buying perspective.

Hamels, Lee and Brown are the three best reasons to come to Citizens Bank Park. Lee and Brown were All-Stars in 2013; Hamels might have been one if the team had ever hit for him.

Regardless, a ticket to watch Hamels or Lee pitch is still the Phillies fans’ best bet for a return on investment; a well-pitched game that the Phillies will have a better-than-average chance to win.

As for Brown, Phillies fans have to be intrigued to learn which player Brown really is.

Is Brown the young, dynamic slugger who hit 27 home runs in 2013? Or is he the guy who hit 12 home runs (total) in three previous seasons, never raising his batting average over .245 in the process?

The Phillies’ moves this offseason, then, are a paradox of action and inaction.

The three signings are a C, maybe a C-. Giving Ruiz three years and Byrd two feels excessive.

Holding onto the Phillies’ three marquee names, though? That is an A.

Hamels, Lee and Brown are still the best reasons to pay attention to the Phillies at all.

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