5 Bold Predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies’ 2nd Half of the Season

Five predictions likely to come true for this Phillies team would be pretty easy to make. 

According to online betting site Bovada (which we purposely do not link to), the Phillies’ odds to win the World Series have plummeted from the preseason level of 16-1 to 66-1.

To put that in perspective, Bovada considers the following underwhelming teams more likely than the Phillies to win it all: the San Diego Padres, the Colorado Rockies and the Kansas City Royals.

With the writing so clearly scrawled on so many walls, the Phillies are almost certainly going to move some veterans at the trade deadline and bring some kids up for the last couple months of the season.

Those are not bold predictions.

Personally, predictions are not my favorite assignment anyway, since if predictions were a strength for me my living could just come from gambling instead of, you know, work.

As such, the following predictions are, admittedly, quite unlikely to happen as written.

But there is just enough truth in each of them to make them viable, at least for the purposes of discussion.

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels Responsible for Phils’ Coming Roster Purge

Cole Hamels is getting a pass from Philadelphia Phillies fans—and the city’s media—for his horrible pitching this season.

That stops now.

The Phillies are exactly halfway through their season after a 16-1 thrashing of the Los Angeles Dodgers. They won 39 of their first 81 games are 6.5 games out of a wild-card playoff spot.

For his part, Cole Hamels is 2-11 with an earned run average over 4.50 and a 1.30 WHIP.

Those numbers actually flatter Hamels if you take into consideration what the Phillies are paying him to throw the ball every five days, not to mention how the 2013 team’s fate was placed to a large degree on his left arm.

Think about the team’s outlook back in spring training.

Everyone knew Roy Halladay was, at best, a big question mark and at worst damaged goods. We know now how that turned out. Regardless, counting on Halladay to win double-digit games after the spotty 2012 season he posted was never going to work.

Other than losing Halladay, though, the “back of the baseball card” premise has largely borne out for the Phillies—with the glaring exception of Hamels. That is, most of the Phillies have done more or less what could have been expected of them.

Ben Revere, after a pretty wretched start, is now hitting .280 with 20 stolen bases. Michael Young is hitting .289 after pulling himself out of a terrible slump.

Ryan Howard has hit 10 home runs and driven in 41 while fighting through nagging injuries. Chase Utley missed almost a month, but in his 52 games played, he has hit .281 with an .844 OPS and nine home runs.

And those are just the dossiers of the Phillies who have performed about as expected. 

Some Phils have overachieved wildly.

So the Phillies are no longer the offensive juggernaut that terrorized the National League from 2007-2011. They are below average, ninth out of 15 teams in the National League. 

You know who’s in 10th place in offense in the National League? The 49-30 Pittsburgh Pirates, that’s who.

While the Pirates are patching a capable pitching staff together with the likes of Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon and Jeff Locke, the Phillies are paying Hamels almost $20 million to go 3-14 in games he starts.

On a few occasions, the Phillies’ bats let Hamels down, but that happens to every starting pitcher.

The position players have had little to do with Hamels’ nondescript June, when he went 1-2 against a punchless slate that included the New York Mets, Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins—all below-average offenses in their own rights.

And if you reach back to May 31, you can drag in Hamels’ stink bomb against the Milwaukee Brewers, when Hamels gave up 12 hits and six earned runs in five innings to fall to 1-9.

The saddest part of all of this is that many of Hamels’ teammates are exceedingly likely to pay for his sins.

CBS Sports’ Peter Gammons and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal are just two of the prominent pundits suggesting that the likes of Utley, Young, Jonathan Papelbon and even ace Cliff Lee may go at or before the trade deadline as the Phillies fall further out of contention.

Hamels, of course, is going nowhere. It is hard to get a great return on a 2-11 pitcher with five years and $112.5 million left on his contract.

Think of it this way: Had Hamels just been around .500 in the first half, say, 6-7 instead of 2-11, the Phillies would be 43-38 and in serious contention for a wild-card spot.

Instead, the team appears headed for a fire sale.

Maybe it is harsh to put all the blame on Hamels for the train wreck that has been the Phillies’ 2013 season.

But he’s a really good place to start. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Reasons for Keeping Cliff Lee Past 2013 Trade Deadline

The Philadelphia Phillies probably need to sell, for real this time, as the 2013 version of the club bobs aimlessly around the .500 buoy.

But Cliff Lee should stay.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has Lee at the top of the list of trade candidates in Philadelphia.

That makes some sense. Lee is the Phillies’ best pitcher by any measure, and their best player outright (with apologies to Domonic Brown.)

And for a contending team, Lee’s stellar postseason numbers (7-3, 2.52 earned run average, .927 WHIP and a strikeout ratio of almost 9/1) will make him very attractive to any team that thinks it can win the World Series this season.

So there will be a market for Lee at the trade deadline.

If the Phillies are smart, though, they will resist the urge to rid themselves of all vestiges of their glory years and keep Lee in Philadelphia to start 2014.

Here come five reasons why.

Begin Slideshow

A Very Early Look at Potential Philadelphia Phillies 2014 Free Agent Targets

Phillies fans do not know whether this year’s team has one final playoff push in it, but one thing is absolutely certain: This core group of players will largely be gone after 2013.

Of course, Ryan Howard and his enormous contract are not going anywhere. Neither probably is Cole Hamels, as long as he is getting paid over $20 million a year to lose five games for every one he wins.

After those two, though, there is uncertainty for the Phillies around the diamond.

Jimmy Rollins has one year left on his present contract, but he could be a useful piece for a contender if the Phillies fall out of the race this summer.

Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon have longer deals in place, but then they are still premium players at their respective positions and they could be moved.

The contracts of Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Carlos Ruiz and Michael Young are all up after 2013. It is tough to foresee any of them, even franchise poster boy Utley, coming back next season.

This sort of upheaval can be terrifying for fans, but the undeniable benefit to the likely departures of so many expensive, over-the-hill players is the free agent money that their absence from the payroll will free up.

So, without meaning to bury the 2013 Phillies before the coroner does the autopsy, here is a look at potential free agents the Phillies may have interest in this winter.

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies: June Slate of Underperforming Opponents Gives Phils Hope

The Phillies have 21 games left to play in June, having won five in a row to climb over .500. As it stands, only one of the teams they will play (the Colorado Rockies) is over .500 itself.

The Phillies have three more games against the Milwaukee Brewers, presently in last place in the National League Central.

From Milwaukee, they travel to Minnesota to play the Twins, who are currently four games under .500 and thus will be under .500 when the Phillies arrive.

The current 10-game road trip ends in Denver, where the Phillies will play the Rockies, who right now are a scant four games over .500.

The schedule for the rest of the month appeared to be pretty daunting before the season started, but for various reasons the last four series of June just do not seem all that scary right now.

The Phillies will come home to play the Washington Nationals for the first time in Philadelphia this season. You may recall that the Nationals were the consensus preseason favorite (on ESPN.com anyway) to win the National League East and perhaps the World Series.

As with the Phillies, though, the Nationals’ best-laid plans have been undercut by injuries and poor production from key members of their division-winning team of 2012.

Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg were supposed to become household names this season. Instead, they’re both hurt. Danny Espinosa is hitting .158. Ryan Zimmerman seems to have a case of throwing yips. Dan Haren is 4-7 with an earned run average of almost 5.50.

Suddenly, the faceoff with the Nationals is not nearly as terrifying as it might have been.

The Nationals series will be followed by three games against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. The Mets are currently 10 games under .500 and going nowhere fast. They are currently 29th (out of 30 MLB teams) in batting average, 27th in on-base percentage and 26th in slugging percentage.

June ends with the Phillies playing seven games on the West Coast, three against the underwhelming San Diego Padres (second-to-last in National League West right now) and then four against the stunningly bad Los Angeles Dodgers.

Look…down is up and white is black for this 2013 Phillies team. Their best hitter, Domonic Brown, was hitting .206 with two home runs on April 23. Roy Halladay just had shoulder surgery. Cole Hamels is 2-9. Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz are injured.

And yet, there are the Phillies, hanging around, not doing too much to get noticed but not doing too much to get buried, either.

If the Phillies are a good team, beating up on some of the bad teams they are slated to play would be an excellent way to prove it.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2013 MLB Draft: Latest Expert Predictions for Philadelphia Phillies’ 1st Pick

After years of being “one player away,” the Philadelphia Phillies are now much further than that from contending for a championship.

Since the 2008 World Series, each successive playoff failure has left Phillies fans with the feeling that if the Phillies only had one more difference-maker, they would have won another title.

In 2009, the Phillies returned to the World Series where they had 37-year-old Pedro Martinez start (and lose) two games, including the Series clincher against the New York Yankees. They were clearly a pitcher short.

In 2010, the Phillies wheezed out in the National League Championship Series against the San Francisco Giants. The pitching was much better, but the Phillies hit .216 as a team. That team was definitely a hitter (or three) short.

In 2011, Hunter Pence was brought in at the deadline to address Philadelphia’s offensive woes. It was not enough, though, as the Phillies were shut out in a home elimination game by the St. Louis Cardinals.

Then in 2012, everybody got hurt.

This season, the Phillies appear to be on a slow boat to nowhere. Unlike past seasons, there is no credible way to suggest that the team is “one player away” from getting back to the top of the mountain.

The Phillies have the 16th pick in the upcoming 2013 Major League Baseball Draft. Who might the Phillies grab?

Bleacher Report’s Mike Rosenbaum and Adam Wells recently posted a dual/dueling mock draft. Rosenbaum had the Phillies taking high school shortstop J.P. Crawford. Wells went with junior college shortstop Tim Anderson at No. 16.

ESPN.com’s Keith Law posted his mock draft that had the Phillies taking Crawford. That pick was co-signed (indirectly) by John Sickels of minorleagueball.com

Law also linked the Phillies to being interested in right-handed high school pitcher Devin Williams, high school shortstop Travis Demeritte and the aforementioned Anderson.

Chris Crawford’s most recent mock for MLB.com has the Phillies taking left-handed hitting high school first baseman Dominic Smith. Bleacher Report’s Rosenbaum had Smith ranked 16th in his recent top 100 pre-draft rankings.

SI.com’s Dave Perkin likes towering high school lefty Trey Ball as the Phillies “will need to rebuild” their “once vaunted starting staff.”

The fact that so many experts have the Phillies drafting a shortstop or a pitcher reflects the franchise’s reality.

While the Phillies have those positions covered now, they are manned by aging, expensive stars who probably will not be playing for the Phillies beyond 2016 when these prospects figure to be ready for the major league level.

Check back with Bleacher Report regularly for the latest 2013 MLB draft updates.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: As Ryan Howard’s Fade Continues, Darin Ruf Must Play Now

Ryan Howard is day-to-day with inflammation in his left knee, per Ryan Lawrence of Philadelphia’s Daily News.

That isn’t all. The magnetic resonance imaging test of Howard’s knee identified “changes” in his meniscus.

Since my training is in law and not medicine, maybe it would be best to hear it from Phillies‘ trainer Scott Sheridan: “He’s got some changes in his meniscus and his knee. And he’s also got some inflammation in the knee that concerns us.”

Maybe Howard will be back in a few days. Maybe he will need a disabled list stint.

Either way, it does not really matter. Ryan Howard is a player with egregiously diminishing skills who now cannot much stay on the field.

And Howard’s at-bats against decent left-handed pitching are the stuff of nightmares. As of this writing, Howard’s on-base percentage against lefties is .213.

At this point in his career, Howard would be a solid platoon player. And that’s about it.

If the Phillies could commit to playing Howard only against right-handed pitching, the production the Phillies would get from a half season from Howard and the rest from the likes of John Mayberry Jr. and Michael Young might equate to the output of a decent full-time first baseman.

Or maybe Darin Ruf should be splitting time with Howard at first base. More on Ruf in a minute.

It all sounds crazy, of course, because of Howard’s contract.

The common refrain any time the idea of sitting Howard crops up is that the Phillies owe Howard too much money.

Here’s the thing, though: One thing should have nothing to do with the other where that issue is concerned.

Howard is going to get the whole of his $20 million this year and $25 million in each of the next three seasons no matter what his playing status is.

Playing Howard only because of the money he is making, then, is quite possibly sacrificing enhanced chances to win future games because of a past blunder.

Not only does that decision-making run counter to the basic ethic of professional sports, which is to win above all else, but it sends the absolute wrong message to the other 24 guys on the team who might have a better chance to win if Howard sits against left-handed pitching.

Because Howard got off to a decent start in 2013, and because Darin Ruf‘s season began poorly at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Ruf fell off most Phillies fans’ radar after he was the darling of spring training.

And it is not like Ruf is now the second coming of Miguel Cabrera at Lehigh Valley now.

But Ruf‘s batting average is up to .267, and he has hit five home runs in 40 games.

In limited major league action last season, Ruf hit three home runs in 12 games.

Maybe Ruf cannot hit right-handed pitching well enough to keep a job at the major league level. That’s okay, because Howard can still do that just fine.

Ruf can almost certainly hit left-handed pitching at a better clip than .196.

If the Phillies are serious about trying to steal a playoff spot this season, the first order of business must be the beginning of cutting their losses with Ryan Howard.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

An Early Look at 10 Realistic Moves Phillies Could Make at the Deadline

Call it a reverse black cat. Call it anything you want. But this Phillies team, which is four games out of first place, is not only not making the playoffs.

They are not going to finish .500.

So many things had to go right for the Phillies to contend this year. For the most part, it is just not happening.

True, Chase Utley has had a bit of a resurgence, still leading the team in both home runs and runs batted in. But he never had a ton of range at second base. Now, his knees just don’t let him go where he wants to go. With five errors and a .972 fielding percentage, he had better hit.

All the other “must haves” for this team are little more than wishes unfulfilled.

Roy Halladay needed to be an elite pitcher again. You can forget about that.

Carlos Ruiz needed to come back from suspension and be a .300 hitter again. So far, he is hitting .200.

Ben Revere needed to be a table-setter and a run-scoring machine. All he has done is proven the age-old adage that you cannot steal first base.

Michael Young needed to be a run-producing right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup. Somehow, despite hitting .310 thus far, Young has nine runs batted in. Slugging .395 as a third baseman is pretty sorry.

It would be great to have this piece be Exhibit “A” when the Phillies are leading the National League East by five games in late September.

Failing that, though, these are the moves the Phillies will need to make at or before the trade deadline.

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Most Intense Moments in the Phillies-Dodgers Rivalry

The Phillies are in San Francisco as this article posts, and as you may have heard the Giants are the defending world champions.

Little did anyone know at the time, but it was the Giants’ first of their two World Series runs of the last four seasons that started the Phillies’ downward spiral to relative irrelevance.

Cody Ross hitting two home runs off Roy Halladay, and all that followed, was the canary in the coal mine.

While it is easy to envy and dislike the Giants, you would be hard-pressed to call the Giants a rival of the Phillies. The teams play in different divisions three time zones apart.

Of course, that is true for the Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers, too. But the Phillies and Dodgers have been rivals for a long time.

And in a week where Roy Halladay was placed on the disabled list, a week where Phillies fans are once again coming to grips with the likelihood that this recent golden era of Phillies baseball is over, it serves to revisit some happier memories.

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies: Roy Halladay’s Crashing End Hard on All Concerned

The final curtain may be coming down on Roy Halladay‘s once-dazzling run as a starting pitcher in Philadelphia.

Whether the show can reopen in another city some other day is, well, some other day’s question. 

The here and now is pretty awful. When the Triple-A All-Star team that goes by the name of the Miami Marlins hits you with more earned runs (nine) than you get outs (seven), something is clearly wrong.

Halladay’s earned run average stands at 8.65. He is probably going to land on the disabled list (per ESPN.com) with what has loosely been described as “shoulder soreness” but might more accurately be called “he lost it.”

Whether Dr. Lewis Yocum declares Halladay fit for duty or not is beside the point now.

Halladay has taken the ball seven times this season. Four of those times, his team has been irretrievably behind by the fourth inning. 

What the Phillies are paying Halladay to pitch this season (an even $20 million) is no longer important, either.

Halladay’s results would be unacceptable from a pitcher earning the league minimum. Halladay’s price tag does not make resigning the Phillies to more lopsided losses any more justifiable.

In a perverse way, placing Halladay on the disabled list—maybe even finding out he cannot pitch at all—will be a sort of relief.

Consider all the agita the Phillies and their fans have been exposed to by Halladay just in 2013:

• Spring training was consumed by “is he or isn’t he healthy” stories amid bad outings.
• After two outings, with his ERA over 14, the alarm bells were piercing.
• In search of an explanation (scapegoat?) career backup catcher Erik Kratz saw his name dragged down for Halladay’s sins, like it was his fault Halladay had lost velocity and couldn’t locate any more.
• Just this week, Halladay felt compelled to defend his pitching coach, Rich Dubee, from criticism from noted mechanics expert Mitch Williams. Talk about a low point.
• Now this, an early Mother’s Day massacre at Citizens Bank Park where half the 45,276 announced were wandering to the parking lot like mugging victims by the sixth inning.
• Followed by the coup de grace: Halladay’s concession that he has been pitching hurt for two weeks.

Ugly, irresponsible things leak out of situations like Halladay’s unraveling, including but not limited to radio talk show hosts questioning Halladay’s integrity:

You didn’t ask me, but in my opinion there is no chance that Halladay is saying he is injured to excuse his inability to do his job, or to engender sympathy.

The Phillies have had more than their share of high-priced talent who signed the contract and then jaked it at every opportunity. Lance Parrish, Gregg Jefferies, Travis Lee, Kevin Millwood: Phillies fans have had their share of mutts. Roy Halladay is not a mutt.

But neither Halladay’s valor nor his standing among the game’s active greats is doing anything for him when Adeiny Hechavarria is halfway to the cycle with seven runs batted in off Halladay in the third inning.

Halladay’s quick spiral into uselessness is putting everyone around him in difficult spots, per CSNPhilly.com’s John Gonzalez.

Charlie Manuel: “I have a hard time watching him struggle.”

“Until we do any diagnostic work, we won’t know exactly what’s going on with him,” Ruben Amaro Jr. said. “But, clearly, it doesn’t seem like he’s healthy. It’s pretty apparent with his performance, unfortunately.”

Everything ends badly, or it would not end.

For Roy Halladay and the Phillies, their time together appears to be ending far more rapidly and sadly than either party could ever have imagined.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

« Previous Page — Next Page »