Philadelphia Phillies: Grades for Every Fightin’ Phils Player in April

When you were a young child in school, you probably had a favorite teacher. Someone who cared about you, who inspired you to reach beyond your pedestrian abilities and exceed even your most immodest intellectual goals.

Or maybe it was just a soft grader you were most fond of, i.e. someone who would take a paper you knew deserved a B- and give it a B+ just because she liked you.

In the moment, that indulgence feels good. But deep down, you know that that sort of coddling is far more likely to encourage backsliding than it is to inspire a better effort next time around.

That is why the following grades are going to trend toward ruler-wielding and belittling. Through 27 games, this Phillies team is more “juvenile delinquent” than “summa cum laude.”

This team needs to shape up fast.

 

Domonic Brown: Here we have a career .236 hitter who is hitting all of .241 at the end of April. He is loafing on defense—never mind David Murphy’s excuse-making, as yours truly was in the building for that debacle and Brown embarrassed himself with that display. 

Brown has no stolen bases. If his name was “Jack Smith,” he would already be at AAA Lehigh Valley. Here is hoping Delmon Young’s defense is not as bad as advertised. D.

 

Ryan Howard: The Big Piece’s start has been altogether adequate. Howard is on pace for about 20 home runs, 90 runs batted in and a .280 average. Is that worth $25 million? Of course not. But if he can play 155 games or so and produce at that clip, you would have to take it. B.

 

Ben Revere: Uh oh. Maybe the Minnesota Twins knew something the Phillies didn’t. A .200 average with one extra-base hit in 23 games is just not good enough. Revere hit ninth in the Phillies’ first interleague game against the Cleveland Indians. That was only because Charlie Manuel was not allowed to hit him tenth. F.

 

Chase Utley: Hard to ask for much more from No. 26 thus far. Utley leads the team in home runs, runs batted in, slugging percentage and OPS. The five errors are a bit disconcerting, but few will notice the stray fielding miscues as long as Utley hits like this. A-.

 

Jimmy Rollins: For a guy who has played every day, Rollins’ opening month was quiet enough to drive a fan to distraction. May and June will go a long way toward deciding whether Rollins is still an elite shortstop or just another guy. C+. 

 

Erik Kratz: Tasked with holding down the fort until Carlos Ruiz returned from suspension, Kratz instead made a horrible turkey bacon commercial, had trouble handling the pitching staff and hit .191. If only Tommy Joseph or Sebastian Valle was showing anything in the minor leagues. D-.

 

Michael Young: If not for Utley’s fine play, Michael Young would be the only Phillies regular worth a damn. Which reminds me of one of the infamous backhanded compliment Dean Wormer laid on Robert Hoover in “Animal House”: “Mr. Hoover, president of Delta house? 1.6; four C’s and an F. A fine example you set!” A+.

 

Kevin Frandsen: Michael Young has been so good that Frandsen‘s opportunities have been severely limited. If the Phillies are telling the truth, that is just fine with them. Still, Frandsen has been ready when called upon, with a number of key pinch hits including a possible season-saver against the Kansas City Royals. B+.

 

Freddy Galvis: You know how everyone loves the backup quarterback in football? That is how Phillies fans feel about Galvis. “Give him a chance! He can really play!” Well, Galvis is out of the gate blazing hot as always, hitting .222 in limited action. Wake me up when he does something notable. C.

 

Laynce Nix and John Mayberry, Jr.: These two are graded together because (channeling Gary Matthews here) for me, they are basically the same player. Mayberry started off hot, then predictably cooled to his present .242 average. Nix is pinch-hitting like a world-beater…but that is all he does. If either or both of them were waived tomorrow, it would be okay. These guys are everywhere in Major League Baseball. C.

 

Cole Hamels: Your new consensus staff ace followed up his beguiling spring with a series of horror show starts. He got his first win this past week, but even in that game he walked six batters. Hamels needs to get his head out of and north of his posterior, like, right now. D.

 

Cliff Lee: Like the man himself, Lee has been almost entirely unnoticed thus far this season. His numbers (2-1, 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) are all better than average, but he’s certainly no Matt Harvey. On this staff, though, he is the ace so far. B+.

 

Kyle Kendrick: Then again, maybe calling Lee the staff ace thus far is a touch unfair to KK. Kendrick will always be overlooked because he does not really strike anyone out. He relies on soft contact—when the contact is hard, he gets crushed. But a 2-1 record with a 2.41 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP is no joke, son. A-.

 

John Lannan: Two quality starts, one shelling and a disabled list stint. Sounds like a future valedictorian! Incomplete.

 

Roy Halladay: After so much hand-wringing through the spring, Halladay’s April has conclusively shown him to be exactly what he is at this point in his career. He has three quality starts out of six trips to the hill. He is 2-3. His ERA is presently almost seven.

As with Domonic Brown, if Halladay’s jersey said “Smith” on the back, he would be in the minor leagues. But the jersey says “Roy Halladay,” so he will get the ball until he proves he cannot compete in at least every other start. C-.

 

Jonathan Papelbon: For a 12-15 team, an eight-figure salaried closer is like a Maybach in the driveway of a double-wide. But Papelbon has been that Maybach, at least. A.

 

Mike Adams: On this team that cannot run away and hide in many games, Adams leads in appearances. He is called on so frequently because he either needs to hold a slim lead or keep the team in it late. Adams arrived with a big reputation, but he has only been decent.

He is better than what the Phillies had in setup roles last season. Talk about damning with faint praise. B.

 

Antonio Bastardo: Is he back to being an elite bullpen option? Is he just a left-handed one-out guy? It is too soon to tell. Bastardo has been quite effective thus far, though, allowing just one earned run in 10 appearances. That will do. A-.

 

Phillippe Aumont: For relief pitchers, won/lost records are often poor measures of their effectiveness. In Aumont‘s case, though, he is 1-3 on merit. Buy in to the decent ERA (3.52) if you like. For me (channeling Sarge again…sorry) it’s all about the WHIP over two and the 1/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Here is another guy who is not a competent major league player up at this level because the Phillies have no other answers. D+.

 

Jeremy Horst, Chad Durbin, Raul Valdes: None of these guys can pitch at this level, either. If at least one of them does not find something fast, this team is not going to finish above .500. F.

 

Jonathan Pettibone: Yes, the two starts have been sort of promising. But the major leagues are full of fifth starters who top out at five innings. Pettibone has been little more than that thus far. Incomplete.

 

Humberto Quintero and Ezeqiel Carrera: Neither had a single memorable moment. Incomplete.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Phundamentally-Challenged Phigtins Are Cheating Phans

In the immortal words of Casey Stengel, “Can’t anybody here play this game?”

Judging by the results of the Phillies‘ recently-completed 3-5 homestand that left them at a desolate 9-14 overall, at least in Philadelphia the answer seems to be “not so much.”

Entering the season, the big question marks were, in no particular order:

• Roy Halladay’s diminishing velocity and effectiveness
• Ryan Howard and his ability to bounce back from an injury-plagued 2012 
• Chase Utley’s ability to stay healthy and produce
• Michael Young and the challenge of playing third base every day after spending last season as a designated hitter
• Mike Adams and the rest of the bullpen’s ability to handle the eighth inning

Amazingly, all of those question marks have, in the main, turned out all right so far.

After a very shaky couple of outings, Halladay has turned in three outings that have ranged from above-average to really good.

Howard is hitting over .280 and playing every day.

Utley is hitting over .300 and his power has returned. He leads the team in runs batted in thus far.

Young is also hitting well over .300 and his defense at third base has been more than adequate.

And Adams, but for a violent hiccup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, has been the steadying late-inning presence he was advertised to be.

Recent troubles have focused on the sixth and seventh innings, but then everyone figured that the bullpen leading up to Adams and Jonathan Papelbon would be a cover-your-eyes proposition.

Despite all of the favorable harbingers, the Phillies are in 4th place in the National League East and sinking like a stone.

Why? To a significant extent, it is because the Phillies play terrible fundamental baseball.

Consider:

• In a 6-4 loss to the Pirates, Cliff Lee was picked off second base, and in the same game Utley ran into an out at home plate with first-and-third and nobody out; dishonorable mentions go to Cliff Lee giving up the game-tying single on an 0-2 pitch and Phillippe Aumont putting a .148 hitter on by hitting him with a pitch.
• The night before in a 5-3 loss to the Pirates, Rollins negligently ran into an out at home plate with (wait for it) first-and-third and nobody out, and Utley played a semi-difficult Starling Marte pop-up to short right field into an RBI triple.
• The night before that in a 2-0 loss to the Pirates, John Mayberry Jr. ran into an out at home plate with (hard to believe, really) first-and-third and nobody out.
• Two nights earlier, in a 7-3 win over the St. Louis Cardinals, Utley was doubled off second base on a routine fly ball by Young because he apparently lost track of the outs, and Domonic Brown loafed a Matt Adams short fly ball into a single.

Note to the reader: Not one of the examples above is criticizing a player for grounding into an inopportune double play, or committing an error in the normal course of play. No team and no player is above human frailty.

But the displays of baseball from the Phillies lately, in legal parlance, range beyond the simply negligent and eke into the careless or reckless.

The Phillies’ slow start has been minimized by other facts out of their control, including but not limited to the fact that the presumptive division favorites, the Washington Nationals, are still languishing around .500. “Small sample size,” you might hear.

Unfortunately, unwavering effort and a rudimentary understanding of the fundamentals of baseball are not things that tend to correct themselves over a 162-game schedule. If anything, these flaws just multiply and become magnified as the weather warms and the season drags on.

Phillies fans keep talking about how the returns of Carlos Ruiz (from suspension) and Delmon Young (from injury) should right the ship.

They might be better off calling on Fred McGriff and Tom Emanski.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Old, Brittle, Overpaid Team’s Flaws Already Being Exposed

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ preseason was best summed up with Andy Dufresne’s words to Red in The Shawshank Redemption: “hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.”

Three weeks into the season, though, the Phillies’ reality of greatness lost is more like Red’s summation of his reckless youth to the parole board: “that kid’s long gone and this old man is all that’s left.”

Tremendous energy has been poured into analyzing the troubles Roy Halladay has encountered through four starts in 2013. Most of that heated conjecture is wasted.

The plain truth is that Halladay has lost velocity on all his pitches (not just his fastball), and thus has to learn to compete with what he has left, per NESN.com. While it is true that his last two starts were much better than his first two, it all adds up to 2-2 record and a 6.04 earned run average.

Given the prevailing wisdom that Halladay needs to be special for the Phillies to compete in 2013, early returns are not all that convincing.

Compared to Ryan Howard’s situation, though, Halladay’s first three weeks look positively promising.

The Phillies would certainly take a .274 batting average from Howard this season. But that is where the good news ends.

Howard is slugging .384. His OPS is .678. Those power numbers sync with the expectations a team might have for a decent middle infielder or a speedy outfielder.

But Howard is being paid $25 million this season to hit home runs and knock runners in. Currently, he is on pace for eight home runs and 48 RBI. 

That’s not all. Howard’s Achilles injury of October 2011 is still not fully a memory, per the Philadelphia Daily News. As a result, manager Charlie Manuel has taken to pinch-running for Howard late in close games, favoring the chance to score with a faster runner over keeping his franchise first baseman in the game.

Digest that for a minute.

The diminished production from two aging players each making more than $20 million per season is only somewhat masking more subtle problems around the diamond.

The Phillies’ hitters are in the bottom third in Major League Baseball in both on-base percentage and OPS. They’re also in the top quarter in strikeouts and trail traditionally power-starved teams like the Oakland A’s, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners in home runs.

The big offseason acquisition, Ben Revere, is learning that no matter how fast you are, you cannot steal first base. His .205 batting average and .241 on-base percentage have utterly blunted his effectiveness.

The only other regular starter younger than 30 years of age, Domonic Brown, is lolloping along at .206 and playing what can charitably be called an unconvincing left field. One wonders at this point if Brown’s name was, say, Steve Smith, whether he would already be at AAA Lehigh Valley.

Maybe the most troubling news for Philadelphia is this: Chase Utley and Michael Young are both healthy and hitting over .300, Antonio Bastardo and Phillippe Aumont have yet to give up an earned run, Jonathan Papelbon is perfect in save chances this season…and the Phillies are still below .500.

Yes, Cole Hamels is almost certainly not going to post an earned run average over five and go winless for a whole season. That problem will right itself.

Ultimately, though, while fans might argue that proven players like Halladay and Howard can turn it around, and that Revere won’t hit .205 all season, and that Brown is better than he has been, the likelihood is that as those players’ performances trend up to the mean, the performances of Utley, Young, Bastardo and Papelbon will regress to it.

The sort of good news for the Phillies is that the consensus division favorite, the Washington Nationals, are out of the gates slowly themselves.

Still, these first three weeks might have Phillies’ fans—who hoped that 2012 was a temporary setback—reflecting on Dufresne’s realization on how wrong things could yet go.

“I was in the path of the tornado. I just didn’t expect the storm would last as long as it has.”

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Philadelphia Phillies: What Position Should First-Round Draft Pick Be Spent On?

Ordinarily, you could answer a question like this via simple process of elimination. What do you already have? Once you know that, you know what you need.

Except, with this Phillies team, the answer to the primary question is a bit troubling.

The Phillies have a young, dynamic center fielder in Ben Revere. After that? You tell me.

Maybe you can say they have a young left fielder with some upside left in Domonic Brown. But after tearing it up at spring training, Brown is back to his old underwhelming self, hitting .240 in the early going, or just a few ticks above his career average.

Beyond Revere and Brown, the Phillies do not have an everyday player younger than 30 years of age.

If the Phillies were a dynasty league fantasy team, its owner would making three-for-one and four-for-one trades for keepers and playing for next year.

Good luck to the Phillies there, though. Only in fantasyland would Ryan Howard be tradeable with three seasons and $85 million left on his deal while hitting .245 and slugging .377 thus far this season.

Perhaps the only really good news for the Phillies as far as the upcoming Major League Baseball draft is concerned is that, with so many players (Roy Halladay, Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Michael Young) reaching the end of their contracts, major league spots will become available for some of the talent in the system.

When that happens, minor league spots open up for the Phillies’ new draftees—one of whom figures to be the 16th overall pick.

As such, it bears considering what the Phillies already have in the minor leagues by way of players that might be ready to play for the big club sooner than later.

From a raw-skills perspective, catcher Tommy Joseph and shortstop Roman Quinn may be the most ready to make the leap in the short term.

Quinn is blocked next season by incumbent Jimmy Rollins…in theory. In fact, Rollins might be willing to accept a trade to a contender rather than sit through a rebuild.

Quinn has six errors in 11 games at Single-A Lakewood thus far in 2013, though, so it would probably behoove both the Phillies and Quinn for Rollins to play out his contract in Philadelphia. Regardless, the Phillies do not need to spend this first-round pick on a shortstop.

Joseph is off to his own slow start at AAA Lehigh Valley, but with Ruiz likely to be gone after this season the 2014 job seems like it is Joseph’s to lose. And Sebastian Valle is in the wings behind Joseph. Catcher is another position where this pick makes no sense.

Third base prospects Cody Asche (Lehigh Valley) and Maikel Franco (Single-A Clearwater) look to be the future at that position. Asche, particularly, is really struggling at Lehigh Valley—he is hitting under .200 in the early going—but he will have all year to sort things out while Michael Young plays for a new contract.

With Utley likely leaving after his deal expires, second base will be open. But Freddy Galvis could slot quickly and cheaply there, and he is still a very young player.

We already addressed the ugly logjam at first base.

At least for a couple of seasons, the Phillies’ starting pitching situation seems largely settled. Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee will be anchoring the staff for the next two seasons (at least).

Help is on the way from the minors, as highly regarded prospects Jonathan Pettibone, Ethan Martin and Adam Morgan have all risen to Lehigh Valley.

And the best arm in the system, Jesse Biddle, is already at AA Reading.

So with all of that said, it seems process of elimination will work just fine after all. The Phillies have reasonable plans for every position on the diamond except for the corners in the outfield.

The Darin Ruf left field experiment failed miserably in Clearwater, and as of this writing, he is hitting .279 at Lehigh Valley. With no home runs.

The Phillies should spend their first-round pick in the upcoming draft on a corner outfielder. Preferably one who can hit for power and average.

Whether one of those players will still be on the board at No. 16 remains to be seen.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Stock Up, Stock Down for Top 10 Prospects in Week 1

For the Phillies‘ top 10 prospects (per Baseball America), the first handful of games of their respective seasons have yielded divergent results.

This is admittedly the ultimate “small sample size” analysis—none of these players is even a full week into the season.

But the analysis has to start somewhere, and these games count as much as any others this season.

 

STOCK UP

Jesse Biddle: The best young arm in the organization is off quite well, with six strong innings (one earned run on two hits) in a win over the New Hampshire Rock Cats for Double-A Reading.

Roman Quinn: Jimmy Rollins’ likely heir apparent is hitting .333 at Class-A Lakewood with three stolen bases in four games.

Adam Morgan: In the rotation for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Morgan took a no-decision against the Syracuse Chiefs in his first start of the season, but the numbers (six innings, six hits, two earned runs, five strikeouts) were the sort of numbers that win games.

Darin Ruf: Good stuff from Ruf, who is shaking off what had to be a disappointing spring by hitting .294 with a couple of doubles in 17 at-bats at Lehigh Valley thus far.

Carlos Tocci: The 17-year-old phenom is going to be eased in some at Lakewood, but through two games he is hitting .286.

 

STOCK DOWN

Tommy Joseph: The possible replacement for Carlos Ruiz (Chooch’s contract is up after 2013), Joseph is scuffling at Lehigh Valley with a .167 batting average and no extra-base hits in three games.

Jonathan Pettibone: Another highly regarded starter in the system, Pettibone was cuffed around by the Syracuse Chiefs in his initial start—six earned runs on eight hits and three walks in 5.1 innings.

Ethan Martin: The young right-handed starter lasted only 4.1 innings, yielding four earned runs on three hits and four walks against the Syracuse Chiefs.

Cody Asche: With Michael Young tending third base on a one-year deal, the Phillies are hoping Asche can develop quickly enough to take over sooner than later. But Asche‘s .125 average, .188 slugging percentage and .222 on-base percentage through four games will not do it.

Maikel Franco: Speaking of third base, the 20-year-old Franco is off to a slow start at Class-A Advanced Clearwater, hitting .143 and slugging .214.

 

QUICK READ

Ruf remains the most likely call-up of these 10 players. He probably will not make it up before Memorial Day, particularly if Delmon Young gets back from his injury on the expected timetable.

And none of the starting pitchers is likely to see Philadelphia unless the Phillies fall out of the race early and start unloading the likes of Roy Halladay and (sad to say) Cliff Lee for whatever they can get.

Still, with the Phillies stumbling out of the gate (again), an occasional look to the future this season will probably be worthwhile.

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One Prediction for Every Philadelphia Phillies Player on the Opening Day Roster

Predictions are fun, but that is all they are. If you have the gift of seeing the future, use it for good after you are satisfied that you have made enough money in the stock market.

So these are predictions on Phillies players for 2013. Some will be lighthearted, some will be serious, but all of them should be taken as exercises in fun and nothing more.

As readers here often point out, my knowledge of Phillies baseball is pretty limited, anyway.

Mike Adams: 30 holds. A huge improvement over Philly’s eighth innings in 2012.

Phillippe Aumont: Continued problems with strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Antonio Bastardo: To be trusted with and to lose the eighth-inning situational lefty job again.

Domonic Brown: A 20-20-20 season: 20 home runs, 20 stolen bases, 20 errors.

Chad Durbin: Five different occasions this season where Chris Wheeler, Larry Andersen or Tom McCarthy refers to him as “Chad Qualls.”

Kevin Frandsen: A borderline shocking number of late-inning appearances in place of Michael Young for defensive purposes.

Freddy Galvis: A borderline shocking number of late-inning appearances in place of Chase Utley for defensive purposes.

Roy Halladay: Only 140 innings and an earned run average over five. But I hope I’m wrong.

Cole Hamels: A 20-win season that leads the Phillies to a one-game playoff to get into the one-game National League Wild Card playoff.

Jeremy Horst: By September, Horst and not Bastardo will be sharing eighth-inning duties with Adams.

Ryan Howard: A rich man’s Adam Dunn: 40 home runs, 110 runs batted in, .225 average.

Ender Inciarte: A ticket to Lehigh Valley as soon as Delmon Young is healthy enough to play.

Kyle Kendrick: A career high in wins (he only needs 12 to get there.)

Erik Kratz: By late April, the cries for Carlos Ruiz will be deafening.

John Lannan: A surprisingly effective season with double-digit wins and single-digit losses.

Cliff Lee: A 23-win season in which Hamels and Lee never lose back-to-back starts.

John Mayberry, Jr.: Hitting .197, traded at midseason for a player to be named later.

Laynce Nix: Hitting .198, traded at midseason for a player to be named later.

Jonathan Papelbon: 40-plus saves and an earned run average under three.

Humberto Quintero: A ticket to Lehigh Valley as soon as Carlos Ruiz’s suspension is over.

Ben Revere: The Phillies’ offensive most valuable player with 175 hits, 110 runs and 50 steals.

Jimmy Rollins: Quiet, stable leadership with double digits in doubles, home runs and steals.

Chase Utley: A somehow-now-he’s-healthy Utley (in a contract year) hits 20 home runs and drives in 75 with 15 steals.

Raul Valdes: Twenty appearances in which he faces only one left-handed batter; 18 of those batters will be retired.

Michael Young: By September, Young will be hitting better than .300, but he will have twice as many errors as home runs.

Somehow, this is all going to add up to 87 wins.

You would take that, right?

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Grading Every Phillie’s Spring Training

Phillies baseball is wrapping up in Clearwater, and while there is still one very significant starting pitching assignment to come (per the Delaware County Daily Times), final grades for everyone else can be issued.

As with every classroom setting, within the Phillies we find teacher’s pets and class clowns, valedictorians and delinquents.

All statistics, per philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com, through games played March 24, 2013.

Domonic Brown: It is too bad A+ is the highest grade possible. If these grades were given on a 1-100 scale, Brown’s spring training performance would merit him a 110. He led the team in hits and runs scored, hit .368 and tied with Ryan Howard for the team lead in home runs. That’ll do. A+.

Ryan Howard: If not for Brown’s spring, the main story in Phillies’ camp would be Howard’s resurgence at training camp. Howard hit .329 with seven home runs and 16 runs batted in. He will not hit .329 this year, but the power numbers suggest that reports of the Big Piece’s demise are premature. A+.

Ben Revere: Everyone loves the long ball, and that is not Revere’s specialty. But he hit .324 with six stolen bases, and his defense has been as excellent as advertised. Shane who? A.

Chase Utley: Following a slow start, Utley’s movement and bat speed have improved as camp wore on. He hit .291 with four home runs and drove in 14. Even 130 games at that clip would put Utley back in the discussion of the elite second basemen in the National League. Here’s hoping. A-.

Jimmy Rollins: It is tempting to give JRoll an incomplete since he spent most of camp with Team USA at the World Baseball Classic. But Rollins hit .321 for the national team and .286 for the Phillies. He looks like a very good shortstop again. A-.

Erik Kratz: Even if Carlos Ruiz was eligible to come north before the end of April, Kratz was going to make the team. Kratz‘s .273 average in 12 games is not a headline-grabbing statistic, though it does ease fears that the eighth spot in the lineup could be a black hole until Ruiz returns. B.

Michael Young: The new third baseman does not have to do much to be an improvement over last season’s Placido Polanco/Ty Wigginton/Kevin Frandsen platoon. Young’s one home run, .273 average and .683 OPS over 22 games suggests that better than those other three is all he’ll be. B-.

Kevin Frandsen: Speaking of Frandsen, he will stick because of his defense, and because he hits from the right side. His .269 spring training average was right there with his career .267 in the major leagues. Frandsen‘s relief on seeing Yuniesky Betancourt’s release was likely palpable. B-.

Ender Inciarte: From Rule 5 pickup to overachieving Grapefruit Leaguer, Inciarte appears to have an inside track on making the team. He can thank Darin Ruf and Ruf‘s inability to catch a fly ball for that. C.

Freddy Galvis: Like Inciarte, Galvis came to camp and earned a job. Galvis still strikes out far too much for an infielder that should be a contact hitter, but his infield defense could be invaluable in late-inning situations where Charlie Manuel is concerned about the range of Young or Utley. C.

Carlos Ruiz: Everyone seems to love Carlos Ruiz. It’s easy to cheer him in spring training when he’s hitting .227. We’ll see how much they love him when he’s hitting .240 in July. Nothing Ruiz did in Clearwater did anything to dispel doubts that last season’s breakout campaign was anything but (perhaps) Adderall-aided. C-.

Laynce Nix and John Mayberry, Jr.: These two are graded together because throughout spring training they were mentioned in the same breath all the time, i.e., “there is a competition for outfield jobs and Laynce Nix and John Mayberry, Jr. are in it.” Either one of them could have nailed down a starting job with a good spring, but at press time it is hard to say which one of them wanted it less with Nix hitting .212 and Mayberry, Jr. hitting .206. What a mess. D-.

Darin Ruf: Every Phillies fan hoped Ruf would go to Clearwater, play left field adequately, hit very well and grab the left field job. Ruf did exactly the opposite: He couldn’t catch the ball, he hit .246 and he got optioned to Triple-A. Sigh. F.

Cole Hamels: Your new consensus staff ace and Opening Day starter posted 16 innings with a 1.13 earned run average and a WHIP of 0.81. Hamels is right where he needs to be. A+.

Cliff Lee: It is unwise to read too much into spring training statistics where a pitcher like Lee is concerned. Opponents are not going to hit .324 against him in the regular season, and he is still posting better than a strikeout per inning. The 5.94 ERA is alarming, but Lee has earned the right to call it an anomaly. B.

Kyle Kendrick: Conversely, when Kendrick’s spring ERA is over five, that is disconcerting. But the opponents’ batting average of .259 suggests a bit of bad luck, and he only walked two batters in 14 innings. B-.

John Lannan: The probable fifth starter was clipping along quietly and effectively until posting this line against the Toronto Blue Jays: 4 innings pitched, 14 hits and 12 runs (all earned). Mercy. C.

Roy Halladay: Thousands and thousands of words have been written about Halladay’s spring (both links per ESPN.com). Many of them were mine, so if you have read any of those columns this grade is going to come as no surprise. D-.

Jonathan Papelbon: Honestly, it never appeared like Papelbon was particularly paying attention this spring. He has (sort of) earned that right. Still, an ERA over 11? He had better wake up when the show comes back to Philadelphia. D.

Mike Adams: As it was with Revere, Adams performed in spring training consistent with or even above expectations. Adams gave up one lonely earned run in six innings, and opponents only hit .182 against him. Very promising stuff. A-.

Aaron Cook: Like Lannan, Cook has been around awhile. Like Lannan, Cook is in competition for the fifth starter position. Unlike Lannan, Cook’s performance has been consistently solid (3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP.) Cook will either beat Lannan for the contested rotation slot or step in for Halladay if (when?) he is pulled from the rotation due to injury or the inability to get anyone out. B.

Antonio Bastardo, Chad Durbin, Jeremy Horst, Raul Valdes: Meh. C as in “collective,” or “could be worse.”

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Fate Pulls Roy Halladay, Phillies and Blue Jays into Spotlight Together Again

Roy Halladay‘s 2013 spring training performance has been just shy of disastrous.

Halladay was knocked around again in his most recent trip to the mound, a four-inning, 81-pitch, seven-hit slog against a lineup comprised of Triple-A hitters, per Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.

How bad was it? He retired only seven of 18 batters. One of the innings was halted by Philadelphia Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee with the bases loaded and two out—presumably because the Phillies did not want Halladay rearing back to get out of the exhibition jam only to hurt himself for real.

Take a minute and think about how desolate things have become for Halladay when his corner man has to temporarily stop the fight against a Triple-A lineup.

This was hardly the step forward Halladay or the Phillies were hoping for, following consecutive appearances that saw Halladay touched up by the Detroit Tigers and then removed after one inning against the Baltimore Orioles because of a stomach virus.

Spring training statistics are meaningless, but spring training radar-gun readings? They do not lie.

Halladay himself conceded Saturday, for the first time meaningfully and honestly, that he will have to pitch for the foreseeable future (perhaps until he is done) with a diminished arsenal.

Halladay’s candor is admirable, though there probably was no point in denying the obvious.

Per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, Halladay rarely touched 90 mph with any of his pitches. Perhaps the most disconcerting part of that reality is that Halladay said after the game that he feels great.

“My goal today going in was to feel good, be strong all the way through, to feel like my arm slot was repeating, and I felt like that was there,” Halladay said.

The Phillies would probably rather have heard that Halladay was “still building arm strength” or even that he “is still not 100 percent back.” At least that would have given some hope that the Cy Young version of Halladay is in there somewhere.

But if Halladay feels great and cannot hit 90 on the gun with his fastball, what next?

Stark’s blog piece (even more cautionary than the overview story he filed) included some four-alarm-bell quotes from Halladay.

“I don’t know of any guys throwing harder as they got older,” Halladay said. “A lot of the guys I’ve played with, I’ve watched…I’ve watched (other older pitchers) evolve and do different things. I’ve never seen a guy that threw harder as he got older.”

So Halladay is going to become Greg Maddux now?

The curious part of Saturday’s debacle and Thursday’s upcoming “final tuneup” for Halladay before he faces the Atlanta Braves in a game that counts is the opponent.

The Triple-A outfit that handed Halladay his head Saturday belonged to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Halladay will face the Blue Jays’ major leaguers (some of them, anyway) Thursday.

Baseball is a funny game. Half a generation ago, Halladay was throwing seeds and BBs for the Blue Jays, winning a Cy Young Award with them in 12 years but never sniffing postseason play.

Halladay accepted a trade to the Phillies for the 2010 season and signed a contract extension with them because he figured it was an E-ZPass lane to the playoffs.

“It was an easy decision for me. Once the opportunity came up for me to be part of this, it was something I couldn’t pass up,” Halladay said at the time (per ESPN.com).

Look at the picture three scant years later.

The Phillies are coming off an 81-81 season and are solid favorites in the National League East…for third place.

Halladay is struggling mightily.

Conversely, the Blue Jays are favored to win the American League East and maybe even the World Series (per Bovada).

And in a few days, in an otherwise mundane preseason game, the Blue Jays have a chance to put another blemish on Halladay’s hope of finding what he has lost.

When Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos traded Halladay, he might have been thinking that by the time his team would be ready to contend, Halladay would probably not be “that pitcher” anymore.

Quickly, the Phillies and the Blue Jays are finding out how prescient the move turned out to be.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Could Cliff Lee Live to Regret His Long-Term Phils Deal?

If it became a movie, Cliff Lee‘s Philadelphia story would be a romantic comedy with scenes of brilliant light and unbearable darkness.

The first time the Phillies dealt for Lee, in 2009, the deal was viewed as “adding another top starter to join Cole Hamels,” per ESPN.com.

No one could have known, though, that it would be Lee and not Hamels who would be the unhittable one in the 2009 playoffs.

In five postseason starts, Lee went 4-0 in 40.1 innings pitched. He gave up seven earned runs in that entire postseason.

So, naturally, the Phillies did what any sensible club would do with a pitcher who had done what Lee just did.

They traded him to Seattle.

History has proven this trade to be as dumb as it seemed at the time. None of the pieces the Phillies received in return (right-hander Phillippe Aumont, outfielder Tyson Gillies and right-hander Juan Ramirez) have the look of big-time major league contributors.

In fact, only Aumont seems to have a future in the big leagues at all.

The Phillies righted the wrong by signing Lee to a long-term contract in December 2010.

When the Phillies signed Cliff Lee to that five-year, $120 million deal, the prevailing narrative was that the fans never wanted Lee to leave Philadelphia in the first place. 

At Lee’s December 2010 press conference announcing his return to Philadelphia, Lee said things that Phillies fans always wanted to hear. 

“I don’t know what the fans do to create that much more volume and excitement in the stadium, but it’s definitely something extra here,” Lee said. “They’re passionate fans. They understand what’s going on. They don’t need a teleprompter to tell them to get up and cheer.”

It was a feel-good story and a feel-good time for both Lee and the Phillies.

Since that day, though, the good times have been fewer and further between.

Lee’s fingerprints were all over the Phillies’ loss in the 2011 National League Division Series to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Staked to a four-run lead in Game 2 with his team already leading the best-of-five series 1-0, Lee gave it all back and the Phillies’ stranglehold on the series was gone.

It never returned.

And then last season, Lee posted his first losing record (6-9) since going 5-8 in 20 starts for the 2007 Cleveland Indians.

All of the peripheral numbers were fine. Lee’s earned run average of 3.16 was easily among the top 10 in the National League. He struck out 207 hitters in 211 innings. His WHIP was 1.11.

Which leads, ultimately, to the moral of the story.

One way or another, Lee accepted a discounted rate to sign his one-time-only mega-free-agent deal with the Phillies.

Only two years of the five guaranteed are gone, and in that short time, the Phillies have gone from perennial favorite in the National League East to the division’s consensus third-place team behind the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves.

And if the 2013 Phillies cannot improve on last season’s 81-81 and get back to the postseason, significant personnel changes are very likely.

In fact, even if the Phillies do find their way back into the October championship tournament, the likes of Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Michael Young (all on expiring contracts) are probably going to leave.

Which brings us to the big question.

If Cliff Lee knew in December 2010 what he knows now, would he have come back to Philadelphia?

And if he had the chance to leave now, would he?

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Philadelphia Phillies Players Set to Outplay Their Contracts in 2013

All the offseason buzz around the Philadelphia Phillies seemed to be around Darin Ruf.

But Ruf is hitting .205 this spring and pretty clearly cannot play left field at a major league level. So that’s the last you’ll hear about him in this article.

Instead, the biggest focus here has to be on the Phillies’ Forgotten Man, the ultimate post-hype sleeper.

Domonic Brown‘s production so far this spring has the Phillies believing that the “answer” they have been looking for in the outfield has been right there all along.

Assuming Brown makes the major league club and sticks all season, Brown will make $490,000 in 2013. That is the Major League Baseball minimum salary.

In a season where Alex Rodriguez is primed to “earn” $28 million to play maybe half-a-season for the New York Yankees, it will not take much for Brown to outplay his contract.

Early returns, though, are exceptionally encouraging.

Thus far at Clearwater, Brown leads the team in hits and runs scored. He is also tied with a resurgent Ryan Howard for the team lead in home runs.

This is an abrupt about-face for a player with Brown’s spotty statistics to this point in his career.

Domonic Brown has been wearing the “prospect” label now for what seems like half a decade. He is 25 years old. He only played 56 games for the Phillies last season.

But for Brown’s prior status as an up-and-coming player, his .236 lifetime batting average in 147 games would probably have earned his release.

To his credit, though, Brown’s 2013 spring training indicates that he is serious about not just making the team, but (per the Philadelphia Inquirer) earning a starting job and keeping it.

The other two big return-on-investment guys are new faces in Philadelphia.

Ben Revere was brought in to man center field after the departure of Shane Victorino last August.

The Phillies gave up Vance Worley and highly regarded pitching prospect Trevor May to pry Revere from the Minnesota Twins. 

Charlie Manuel needs to figure out what to do with a player like Revere—74 career stolen bases, zero career home runs—in a lineup already a bit starved for the long ball.

But so far, Revere is doing exactly what the Phillies hope he will do all season. He is second on the team in both hits and runs scored.

Like Brown, Revere is slated to make the MLB minimum in 2013. He should outperform that by plenty.

And while it may seem strange to put a player set to make $16 million in 2013 on this list, Michael Young fits here.

Considering that the Phillies are only paying $6 million of what Young is due, his spring statistics so far (.294 batting average, tied for second in runs batted in with nine) suggest that Young will be a comparative bargain at third base in 2013.

For a Phillies team stuck with a number of contracts unlikely to fully pay off (Chase Utley, Roy Halladay and Howard come to mind), some good news from the hot starters of spring training is really welcome.

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