Philadelphia Phillies: What Would Return to Ace Form by Roy Halladay Give Phils?

During Roy Halladay‘s time in Philadelphia, as he has gone so has his club.

Halladay joined the Phillies in 2010. He won 21 games, with nine complete games and four shutouts. He threw 250.2 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was 7.3.

All of these numbers led the National League, and Halladay won the 2010 National League Cy Young Award. In a related story, the Phillies won 97 games that year.

And there was that little matter of the no-hitter he threw at the Cincinnati Reds in their 2010 National League Division Series.

Sure, the San Francisco Giants touched him up some (most notably Cody Ross) in the National League Championship Series. But the entire Phillies team had to answer for that series loss.

A year later, Halladay was again very special. Nineteen wins, eight complete games and 233.2 more strong innings. His team won a franchise-record 102 games.

And while he took the loss in Game 5 of the 2011 National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals, he went eight innings in that game and gave up one run. Again, his team lost, but he could hardly be blamed.

Even after earning $15.7 million in 2010 and $20 million in 2011, Halladay outperformed his contract in both of those seasons.

2012, of course, was another matter entirely.

Halladay came crashing down to earth last season.

Fresh off that 2010 National League Cy Young Award and finishing runner-up in that voting the next season, Doc posted this line: 11-8, 4.49 ERA, a half-dozen starts missed and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.67, his worst since 2007.

Not surprisingly, with their most-accomplished pitcher struggling so mightily, the Phillies won as many as they lost in 2012.

The simplest answer to the question of what a return to form by Halladay would mean for the Phillies is expressed in one word: everything.

If Halladay can muster one more season where he makes (and goes deep into) most of his starts, the Phillies’ plan of having three legitimate stoppers at the top of the rotation as they did in 2011 can be deployed again to devastating effect.

How important is Halladay to the 2013 Phillies? When he got cuffed around by the Detroit Tigers this week, it made not just local but also national news.

Only Halladay knows if his reduced velocity this spring is truly a case of him needing to build arm strength or, sadly, arm speed forever lost.

But the Phillies’ records with Halladay at the top of the rotation have followed pretty closely with his successes and failures.

There is no compelling reason to believe 2013 will be any different.

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Philadelphia Phillies Again City’s Only Serious Hope for Postseason Glory

For too many years now, the Phillies have been Philadelphia’s only legitimate championship contender.

Because of that, the city’s sporting attention has turned hypercritically toward a team that until very recently was a consistent producer of postseason moments.

Unfortunately, 2013 looks to be more of the same, as the wreckage of the seasons of the other major Philadelphia sports teams smolders in the frigid winds of March.

Not that long ago, you could count on the Philadelphia Eagles to contend year in and year out.

Andy Reid’s perennial playoff teams with Donovan McNabb, Brian Dawkins, Brian Westbrook and the rest knocked on the door many times but never quite got in.

Today, to quote Buck Weaver at the end of Eight Men Out, “those guys are all gone now.”

In their place? Chip Kelly and remnants of a team that finished a 4-12 season by laying down in the Meadowlands and losing 42-7 to the New York Giants.

The Philadelphia 76ers entered this season with all sorts of hope. In August, the team had a press conference at the Constitution Center to welcome center (and centerpiece) Andrew Bynum to the club.

Almost seven months later, Bynum has not played one minute for the Sixers and it looks like he never will (per USA Today). The Sixers have fallen out of the playoff hunt and, save for Jrue Holiday, the future is bleak.

As for the Philadelphia Flyers, the names on the backs of the jerseys change but the story never does.

The Flyers still have goaltending problems. They still have a shortage of quality defensemen. They have a ton of big-name, expensive talent, but the whole is less than the sum of the parts.

In other words, it’s the same Flyers team you’ve been watching for 30 years.

Because of the foibles of the other three franchises—below .500 this year, all of them, including the 4-12 Eagles—the Phillies are once again burdened with the hopes of a million or more fans who just want to see a team win.

Before their .500 campaign in 2012, the Phillies had won five straight division titles, two pennants and a World Series in five years.

Their last losing season came in 2002—when they were 80-81.

This, and the aforementioned failures of all the other teams in town, at least partially explains why Phillies fans were so sour about 2012, and why ticket sales are down.

This reaction from Phillies fans is like punishing your reliable A student for getting a B- while your other three kids have dropped out of school entirely.

In 2013, the Phillies figure to have plenty of difficulty chasing down the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves as they try to squeeze one more playoff run from the core of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins.

The climb will be all the more arduous with the weight of expectation added from the other Philadelphia teams’ repeated disappointments.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Halladay’s Pitch Behind Tyler Moore Not Tough, Just Dumb

Philadelphia Phillies’ ace Roy Halladay threw a fastball behind Washington National reserve outfielder Tyler Moore in a spring training game today, an act so pointless that it defies description.

Per Matt Gelb‘s Philadelphia Inquirer blog post: “Roy Halladay wants to make things clear: The pitch that sailed behind Tyler Moore’s back ‘slipped’ from his hand Wednesday. It was a cold and windy day, the kind of day when it is difficult to grip a baseball. Then, Halladay smiled.”

Gelb then stated what was pretty apparent to anyone who saw Halladay’s wild pitch: “The half inning before, Chase Utley was drilled on the knee with a Stephen Strasburg fastball. It did not appear to be intentional. Halladay’s action was, without him saying it.”

Halladay’s action was thus perceived to be intentional. If so, it was also absurd, given the context.

“Message pitches” like the one Halladay threw are part of baseball’s “code,” the unwritten rules that baseball players live by. You throw at one of our guys, we’ll throw at one of yours.

It’s right up there with “don’t steal a base up six runs” and “don’t bunt to break up a no-hitter.” Logic does not generally come into the analysis.

Even accepting, though, that the occasional message pitch (as long as it’s not at someone’s head) is no big deal, today’s gesture from Halladay was baseless and ridiculous.

It might have been justifiable in the regular season. It probably would have made more sense in the playoffs (though you would not want Halladay risking ejection in a playoff game.)

In spring training, three weeks before Opening Day? It was just pointless.

Yes, the Phillies and Nationals have a history of this sort of nonsense. Most recently, Cole Hamels threw at Bryce Harper in 2012, stupidly admitted to doing it on purpose and got himself suspended.

And yes, Utley has been hit by numerous pitches over the years. Actually, he has led the National League in being hit by pitches three times, and it has happened to him 151 times in 10 years.

They could not all have been purpose pitches. Utley crowds the plate, as is his right. Pitchers throw inside, as is their right. Sometimes Utley gets hit. No problem.

The most prominent pitch to hit Utley thrown by a Washington National, of course, was thrown by John Lannan in 2007. You know, the John Lannan the Phillies just signed to compete for their fifth spot in the starting rotation.

So before Moore stepped in against Halladay, what we had was this:

1. The Phillies and the Nationals had engaged in some light “message pitch” exchanges over the last few years, but not so far in 2013.
2. Utley, who gets hit all the time anyway, got grazed on the foot by a Strasburg fastball—it bears noting here that Strasburg has no history of throwing at anyone—on a pitch that at least one observer (Gelb) thought legitimately got away from Strasburg.
3. Halladay was cruising through an outing that eventually saw him yield two hits and no runs in four innings; not inconsequential, given his troubled 2012.

And with all that, rather than just staying focused on the job at hand, Halladay had his only “control lapse” of the day against a backup outfielder—not even a regular—Tyler Moore!

Totally needless.

One last thing: Do not point to a “rivalry” between the Phillies and the Nationals as grounds for this.

From the time the Phillies started winning the National League East for five consecutive years to last year when the Nationals won the division, the closest the teams have been in the final standings is sixteen games apart (2007).

Last year, the Phillies finished seventeen games behind the Nationals.

This is not a rivalry. These are two teams who play in the same division that have little else in common.

And again, it’s spring training.

Ironically, young Strasburg had the most accurate take on his elder’s wild pitch: “It’s spring training. If you’re going to throw at somebody or give a message in spring training, go ahead.”

Roy Halladay should pick other battles.

Like throwing more strikes and winning more games in 2013.

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Predicting Philadelphia Phillies’ Regular-Season Record in 2013

Few predictive models are as well-financed, well-researched and successful as sports books.

Sure, where betting is legal, the books have that little matter of the 10% they collect on losing wagers to ensure their success. But they still get it right more often than not.

The San Francisco 49ers were favored by three or three-and-a-half (depending on where you looked) over the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl in Super Bowl XLVII.

With less than a minute left, the 49ers were inside the Ravens’ 10-yard line, down 34-29. Had they scored a touchdown, the 49ers would have gone for two points (to keep a field goal from beating them).

And the difference in the final score would very possibly have been three points. 

Of course, the Ravens’ defense held, and the final score of 34-31 Ravens made the sharps look dull.

That is the sort of book-breaking magic the Phillies are trying to conjure in 2013.

A quick look at the Ladbrokes World Series odds table tells you what you probably already knew: The Philadelphia Phillies are no longer the front-runners entering 2013.

Per Ladbrokes, the Phillies at 16/1 have an equal chance to win the World Series as the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants.

Unfortunately for Phillies fans, per Ladbrokes, there are nine teams with better odds to win the title—and four of them are in the National League.

The British oddsmakers presently project the Washington Nationals as the National League East’s most likely World Series winners at 8/1. The Cincinnati Reds (9/1), Los Angeles Dodgers (10/1) and Atlanta Braves (14/1) are also preferred to the Phillies.

These odds cannot be disregarded when projecting a win total for the 2013 Phillies. It is apparent that at least one casino in Las Vegas took these odds into account.

Per sbnation.com, when the Atlantis Casino in Las Vegas released their MLB over-unders last month, the house’s projections fell in line with the Ladbrokes odds.

The Nationals’ over-under was 90 wins. Atlanta’s over-under was 86 wins. And the Phillies’ over-under was 81.5.

One-half game better than they had in an injury-plagued, severely-underachieving 2012 season? Even a hardened, cynical Phillies fan has to question the validity of that sort of pessimism.

Any team would struggle without healthy, effective play from its three- and four-hole hitters in the lineup and without its ace.

Without Utley, Howard and Halladay, that is essentially what the Phillies were dealing with. So far this spring, all three have looked healthy and capable of returning to a high level of play.

Further, the Phillies’ 13 blown eighth-inning leads (per the New York Times) should be a problem left behind following the acquisitions of Mike Adams and Chad Durbin.

Those two figure to do a better job of getting the ball to Jonathan Papelbon with a lead than did, say, Jeremy Horst.

So my prediction for the Phillies in 2013 is full health (or close to it) for Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay. Those last two, along with Michael Young and Carlos Ruiz, are all in contract years—so whatever they have left, you’ll see it.

Putting it all together, I see 87 wins for the Phillies and a race for the final wild-card berth that goes to the final day of the regular season.

In fact, based on the odds, I’d sign up for 87 wins right now.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 2013 Phils Will Put ‘Contract Year’ Effect to Stern Test

“Of course he’s playing hard; he’s in a contract year.”

This is the sort of thing you hear every season when a young player about to hit free agency for the first time, or a veteran player on the last year of his current deal, raises his game noticeably.

For the 2013 Phillies, the “contract year” effect could pay huge dividends.

Chase Utley is in the final year of a seven-year, $85 million contract.

From 2007-2010 (the first four years of the contract), Utley made the All-Star team every season. 

When Utley missed 47 games in 2010, it was the team’s first real indication that injuries were going to be a problem for their cornerstone second baseman.

Utley missed 59 more games in 2011; in concert with the end of the the Phillies‘ five-year playoff run in 2012, Utley played only four more games (83) than he missed (79).

Along with all the missed games came declines in Utley’s production. From 2005 through 2008, Utley drove in more than 100 runs every year, hit no fewer than 22 home runs, hit no worse than .291 and scored more than 100 runs three times, including a league-leading 131 runs scored in 2006.

But in the past two seasons, Utley has 44 and 45 runs batted in and batting averages of .259 and .256, respectively. These are not the sorts of numbers that will inspire the Phillies or anyone else to give Utley one final “big” contract.

Utley’s motivation for 2013 is evident in his mere presence on the field in Clearwater—2013 marks the first time Utley has played a spring training game since 2010.

The 2013 Phillies could benefit from Utley’s desire to re-establish his value in advance of free agency.

Roy Halladay is in the final year of the three-year contract extension he signed in December of 2009. He will make $20 million this season.

If he pitches 258.2 innings in 2013, his $20 million option for 2014 will vest. Because his career high in innings pitched is 266 (in 2003), it seems patently unlikely that Halladay can make that happen.

So Halladay is essentially pitching for another contract. Halladay has to prove that his 2012 drop-off (11-8, 4.49 ERA) was a one-off and that he can still pitch at or near the top of a rotation to bolster his value in free agency.

To lesser extents, the “contract year” effect will be tested in other areas of the Phillies’ projected lineup.

Carlos Ruiz is in the last year of his current contract, which calls for him to make $5 million this season. Coming off a 2012 campaign that saw him post career bests in the Triple Crown categories, Ruiz figured to be setting himself up for a windfall in free agency.

Then he was hit with a 25-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s performance-enhancing drug policy. When he comes back, then, Ruiz will be playing to prove not only that he can produce while clean, but that time (he recently turned 34 years of age) has not caught up to him.

Michael Young will make just over $16 million this season and, at age 36, is unsigned thereafter. He hit .277 last year. Michael Young also needs to put up numbers to earn another deal; by “numbers,” read that as home runs and runs batted in, as he will play a power position (third base) in a hitter-friendly environment.

Delmon Young signed a one-year contract for $750,000. Coming off ankle surgery, he must get fully healthy and demonstrate that he can play right field without seeing his hitting suffer to boost his value next offseason.

That makes five players who figure to be prominently involved in the success or failure of the 2013 Phillies who are, to varying degrees, playing for their professional lives.

Is the “contract year” phenomenon reality or myth?

The 2013 Phillies hope it’s the real thing.

 

All contract data in this article per www.baseball-reference.com.

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Philadelphia Phillies Prospects Destined to Have a Great Spring

For an established (sounds better than “old and expensive”) team like the Philadelphia Phillies, there is no time to think about tomorrow.

If the Phillies start slow, or if the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves are just too good to be caught, wholesale changes in the team are very likely.

Actually, the only way most of the Phillies’ youngest prospects will find their way to Philadelphia in 2013 would be if the Phillies are once again out of playoff contention in June.

Because at that point, the Phillies will start selling off veterans like Roy Halladay and Chase Utley for whatever they can get in return via trade, and someone will have to finish the season out.

Still, the Phillies do have some young players who can seize the opportunity that spring training presents to cement themselves as key players on the Phillies’ 2013 major league squad.

For many reasons, the analysis begins with Darin Ruf.

The Phillies have a desperate need for a right-handed, power-hitting left fielder. Ruf, the reigning Eastern League (AA) Most Valuable Player, is no one’s idea of a polished defensive outfielder.

But the Phillies will live with substandard defense from Ruf if he can hit. In spring training, Ruf figures to see much the same caliber of pitching he saw at AA in 2012 and during his September call-up—fringe major leaguers and middle relievers.

Ruf should be able to drive some mistakes against that level of pitching and solidify his spot on the 25-man roster. 

Domonic Brown has been wearing the “prospect” tag for what seems like half a decade. He is 25 years old now, and this spring training is shaping up to be his last real chance to show that he is more than the .236 career hitter he has been at the major league level.

Brown will get plenty of spring at-bats as Delmon Young continues to rehabilitate from ankle surgery, per the Philadelphia Inquirer. Plainly, with Young not projected to be ready anytime soon, the starting right-field job is Brown’s to lose.

Brown’s mammoth game-tying home run against the Detroit Tigers Sunday is certainly not going to hurt his cause.

Then, there is the bizarre case of Freddy Galvis, who unexpectedly served as the starting second baseman for an injured Utley only to sustain a brutal injury of his own.

Galvis‘ injury was coupled with insult when he was hit with a 50-game drug suspension by MLB in June while he was already on the disabled list, per ESPN.com (via The AP).

So how do you classify Galvis? But for Utley’s injury, Galvis would probably never have seen any major-league time in 2012. He hit .226 in the 58 games he played. Is he still a “prospect?”

Did he do enough to deserve a look in 2013, or is he better served finding a competent offensive game at AAA Lehigh Valley? 

Working in Galvis‘ favor will be the time Jimmy Rollins will spend away from Phillies’ camp at the World Baseball Classic. Galvis should get valuable spring training playing time in Rollins’ absence, per the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Again, prospects are not the focus of the 2013 Phillies. If Halladay, Utley, Ryan Howard and the other big-money veterans play poorly, the team is going nowhere.

But the action at Clearwater is still worth a watch where Ruf, Brown and Galvis are concerned.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Spring Training Debut Suggests Past Ills Not Behind Phils

Straight up front, please save your “it’s only one game!” remonstrations. Of course it’s only one game, and of course it’s only the preseason.

Know how you know that preseason results are meaningless? The Philadelphia Eagles went 4-0 in the preseason in 2012. And you know how that turned out.

So, yeah, right, it’s ridiculous to take anything away from a preseason game in February (even one against the terrible Houston Astros) where Jimmy Rollins sat and Cole Hamels left after two strong innings. You’re right.

Yeah, but still.

If you wanted to look for concerns following the ugly 8-3 loss to the Astros, the box score is rife with them.

Consider:

—Golden boy prospect Darin Ruf went 0-for-3, but his error on a routine single that put runners on second and third (rather than first and second) was more troubling than his inability to get a hit.

The double play was no longer in order, two runners were in scoring position, and perhaps predictably the chorus of concerned citizens who think Ruf might not be able to play left field in the major leagues now have an early warning sign to point to.

—The Phillies had eight hits, and only two were for extra bases. Pete Orr’s home run was nice, but like so many Phillie home runs in 2012, it was a solo shot. Ruf, Michael Young and Ryan Howard went 0-for-9. Howard, in midseason form, struck out twice.

So, um, about that power surge in 2013…

—The Phillies had four errors. Michael Martinez’s gaffe is a non-concern since he has little-to-no shot to make the team. But Ruf‘s error is not an encouraging development.

And the other two errors were made by Ben Revere, a supposed defensive upgrade in center field, and Erik Kratz, who is supposed to be the starter at catcher for most of April while Carlos Ruiz serves out his 25-game suspension.

—The Phillies’ middle relievers got slapped around again. B.J. Rosenberg, Jeremy Horst and Justin De Fratus surrendered five earned runs on 10 hits and three walks in five innings against a pretty lousy offensive team.

Mike Adams had better be really good.

Again, right, it’s just one game. The Phillies have over a month in Florida to sort it all out.

From the looks of things, though, they’ll need to use all of it.

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Scouting the Highest-Upside Phillies Pitching Prospects at Spring Training

Pitching prospects will not decide the Philadelphia Phillies‘ fate in 2013.

If Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon do not perform as expected, the Phillies have virtually no chance to contend.

But the emergence of a young arm or three could mean the difference between just contending and a return to the playoffs.

Antonio Bastardo was a question mark coming into the 2011 season. He made 64 appearances, posted a gaudy 6-1 record with a WHIP under one and an ERA of 2.54. Bastardo‘s performance was a huge factor in the Phillies’ fifth consecutive National League East crown that year.

So while you have likely heard of the following pitchers, none is as of yet an established member of the Phillies’ staff for 2013.

By the season’s end, though, any one of them might become a key contributor.

As indicated above, the first three slots in the starting rotation are locked down, and Kyle Kendrick would basically have to implode in Clearwater, Fla. not to be the fourth starter. The fifth spot in the rotation, though, is an open position.

Pressed into service due to Cole Hamels’ sudden illness last season, Tyler Cloyd ended up making six starts, winning twice and losing twice.

Cloyd‘s sample size at the major league level is thus limited, but the 30 strikeouts against just seven walks were certainly encouraging.

Cloyd and former Washington National John Lannan are likely to battle for the fifth spot in the rotation and may end up sharing it in 2013.

As per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, there is just not much room for young players in the Phillies’ bullpen. 

“Papelbon, Mike Adams, Antonio Bastardo and Chad Durbin are locks, which leaves a good group of talented pitchers fighting for three spots,” Zolecki correctly noted.

Zolecki‘s piece profiles Jake Diekman, who is definitely one to watch in camp. 

Diekman combined two very good months with two bad months, leading to pedestrian numbers for 2012.

Here were Diekman‘s earned run averages per month for May, June, July and September (he did not pitch in August): 5.68, 2.08, 7.11, 1.80.

Diekman will need to show the Phillies much more consistency to make the team out of spring training given the addition of Adams and the presumed health of Bastardo.

Another young left-handed reliever worth a look is Jeremy Horst.

Horst’s 2012 was a revelation for the Phillies, who can use all the good left-handed relief pitching they can find.

Horst’s numbers in 2012 were high-quality, though the sample size was limited. In 31.1 innings, Horst struck out 40 batters. His earned run average (1.15) and walks and hits per innings pitched (1.12) were outstanding.

From the right side, the relief pitcher who most bears monitoring is Philippe Aumont.

Aumont made 18 appearances for the Phillies in 2012, even saving two games along the way. His 3.68 earned run average and his 1.295 walks and hits per innings pitched were reasonably competent.

Unfortunately, Aumont also walked nine batters in his 14.2 innings, muting some of the effect of his 14 strikeouts in that same amount of work.

Again, the Phillies’ chances to return to the playoffs hinge in the main on the performances of Hamels, Lee, Halladay and Papelbon. Those four pitchers will earn over $77 million in 2013.

But some cheap, young help would be welcomed enthusiastically.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Hope Springs Eternal in Face of Heavy Odds Against Phils

Eighty-one and a half.

That is the over/under win projection by the Atlantis Casino Resort sports book for the 2013 Philadelphia Phillies, per yardbarker.com.

With the Phillies in Clearwater, and Opening Day more than a month away, optimism for a bounce-back season from the Phillies after an 81-81 disappointment in 2012 is rampant.

Over here is Ryan Howard admonishing the media and the fans to stop dwelling on the imminently-shutting window of opportunity for his team. 

“For us, the window closes when the window closes, but right now the window is still open, so we have to go out and take advantage of this nice breeze while we can,” breezed Howard last week, per csnphilly.com.

Next we hear Chase Utley doing his “expletives for emphasis” thing (recalling his f-bomb-laden address to the assembled fans at the 2008 World Series parade.)

“I feel pretty damn good right now,” Utley said last week, as though simply saying that his knees are OK would not convince you (per nbcsports.com).

Then we have Roy Halladay, whose 11-8 record in 2012 masked an earned run average that was just shy of 4.5 runs per nine innings.

Halladay is so bullish on his health and his team’s fortunes that he wants to pitch 320 innings if that is what it takes to get the Phillies back to the top of the mountain, per the Philadelphia Daily News.

Much was made last season of how any team would struggle without healthy, effective play from its three- and four-hole hitters in the lineup and without its ace. Without Utley, Howard and Halladay, that is essentially what the Phillies were.

All three of them are back and if you listen to them talk, they are all healthy. Further, the Phillies’ 13 blown eighth-inning leads (per the New York Times) should be a problem left behind following the acquisitions of Mike Adams and Chad Durbin. Those two figure to do a better job of getting the ball to Jonathan Papelbon than did, say, Joe Savery.

And yet, despite all of the foregoing, at least one sports book has set the Phillies’ over/under win total at 81.5.

One-half game better than they had in an injury-plagued, severely-underachieving 2012 season.

Apparently, the sharps think Father Time is going to have yet another undefeated season, and that the Phillies will suffer as a result.

Only the aging core of the Phillies can say (and do) otherwise.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Ryan Howard’s Breezy Optimism Won’t Blow Doubts Away

“I understand the window talk. Yeah, there is a window of opportunity, but if you focus on the window closing, then you never let that cool breeze come in.”

Wow.

This was the happy spin that Ryan Howard put on what he perceived to be media negativity about the Phillies‘ 2013 prospects for another championship run, per Jim Salisbury of Comcast Sportsnet Philadelphia.

Howard did not stop there. In his opinion, the Phillies’ window of opportunity remains agape.

“For us, the window closes when the window closes, but right now the window is still open, so we have to go out and take advantage of this nice breeze while we can.”

Howard is entitled to his opinion, even if it is dead wrong.

The Phillies’ window was closing in Clearwater this time last year. The 2012 Phillies were defending their fifth straight National League East title.

They had Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels coming off strong seasons—those three won a total of 50 games in 2011.

Howard and Chase Utley were never deemed likely to begin the season in Philadelphia, not with Howard’s wrecked Achilles and Utley’s degenerative knees. But as long as they got back in the lineup before Memorial Day, the logic went, it would be all right.

Then they didn’t, and it wasn’t.

Utley’s first game of the 2012 season came on June 27; Howard’s was on July 6. By the time Howard returned to live action last year, the Phillies were 37-47 and buried in the National League East basement, 13 games behind the eventual division winners, the Washington Nationals.

So despite Howard’s breezy optimism, the Phillies’ window is not open anymore. It closed when they went 81-81 and finished third in the division in 2012.

And sure, Howard and the Phillies will try like hell to jack the shut window back up. Even Howard acknowledges, though, that the group applying the elbow grease looks familiar but not the same.

“People keep talking about older, and older and older,” Howard noted. “I don’t buy into the whole old thing. It’s about how young you feel inside. It’s all about how well you take care of yourself.”

Maybe. But Howard’s Achilles, Utley’s knees and Halladay’s right shoulder did not betray them because they failed to take care of themselves. Older players get hurt, and the Phillies have a lot of older players.

So the next time Howard wants to blow some sunshine up everyone’s apertures, he would do well to remember that he is not paid to talk.

Except by Subway—and they tell him what to say. 

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