6 Keys for the Philadelphia Phillies to Be a Contender Next Season

81-81.

The definition of average.

The 2012 Phillies underachieved. Bad defense, poor situational hitting, injury, bad luck and poor relief pitching all contributed to the team’s demise.

Can they bounce back in 2013? Can they contend with young teams like the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves in their own division?

They can, but there are six key areas where things must go right for the Phillies in order for the team to make this season just a blip on the radar and return to the playoffs once again.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Will Ryan Howard and Chase Utley Reemerge in 2013?

Ryan Howard and Chase Utley’s best days are behind them. That much we know for certain.

Age and injury have turned the pair of former MVP candidates into players who are good, but no longer great.

Their absence from the lineup for nearly half of the 2012 season and subsequent subpar production is as good an excuse as any for the Phillies‘ disappointing 77-74 record.

The first and second basemen have anchored the lineup for years. Can we expect them to bounce back in 2013? Will Utley’s knees hold up over the long haul? Can Howard cut down on the strikeouts and reestablish himself as a feared cleanup hitter?

The trends for both players don’t look great. Even before Howard ruptured his Achilles tendon on the final play of the Phillies’ 2011 season, he was headed in the wrong direction.

Howard hasn’t hit more than 33 home runs in a season since 2009. His average has dropped each year as well. While he’s still working himself back from the Achilles injury, he’s struck out nearly one out of every three plate appearances this season. His career OPS against left-handed pitching is .740, and he’s hit .176 against lefties this year.

And that’s just his offense. Defensively, Howard is a well-below-average first baseman who lacks range, a quick glove and even an adequate throwing arm.

He’s on the books for $95 million through 2016, so he’s certainly not going anywhere.

I’d expect Howard to work hard in the offseason and come back on a mission. Unfortunately, he simply doesn’t have the physical tools he once possessed. There’s no way all of that bat speed is coming back.

Look for Howard to hit 35 home runs next year and drive in 100 runs. If he can improve his plate discipline and figure out a way to deal with lefties, he could exceed expectations.

The analysis of Utley is trickier, as the production is still there. But can he stay on the field? Will he be ready for the start of 2013?

Despite knee issues that have sapped some of his pop, he is still a premier second baseman. He is far ahead of last year’s offensive pace and is back to hitting the ball with authority. He’s reaching base with regularity as well, and his .382 OBP is right in line with his career .377 mark.

While the Phillies have kicked around the idea of moving Utley to third base next year to make room for Freddy Galvis, the defensive metrics show he is still covering plenty of ground at second.

Utley will earn $15 million in 2013, the final year of his contract. It will be interesting to see whether the Phillies try to extend him soon or wait until after next season and they are assured of his health. 

Utley has stolen nine bases this year, which is an excellent sign after some thought his career could be over. Gone are the days of 30 home runs and 40 doubles, but I have a feeling he could bounce back big in 2013 based on his play of late. Whether he does that next to Howard or at the opposite corner will be the question.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Is It Time to Make Drastic Changes for Phils in 2013?

The 2012 Phillies haven’t lived up to their recent lofty standards.

At four games back with just twelve remaining, the Phils must leapfrog three teams to secure a wild-card spot and a sixth straight trip to the postseason.

The odds are stacked against them.

So let’s take a look ahead at the game plan for 2013. What needs to change? And, more importantly, can the Phillies change?

It’s easy to say the Phillies must get younger, that they must add a power bat or two, and that they must add reliable late-inning relievers. 

But this offseason will be anything but easy for Amaro.

For one, some of the pieces on his team simply can’t be moved. Ryan Howard will return at first base next year. Chase Utley will play second base, or potentially third, if he proves he can handle the hot corner.

Jimmy Rollins, who has enjoyed a renaissance of late, just signed a contract extension this past offseason and will be back at shortstop. Carlos Ruiz will catch, and Domonic Brown will be given the opportunity to start in one of the outfield corners.

That leaves three everyday spots up for grabs—third base, center field and either left or right field.

If Utley successfully converts to third base—and I have my doubts that will happen—Freddy Galvis would presumably take over at second, filling out the infield.

The rotation is set, as long as Amaro decides to hang on to Cliff Lee, though the potential for a trade that would free up additional money remains.

Expect Lee to stay, particularly after the left-hander has returned to dominant form of late. Ace starting pitchers don’t grow on trees.

Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick should also start every five days.

The Phillies boast considerable depth in their untested bullpen, though that’s a story for another day.

For better or worse, the Phillies 2012 core will remain the same in 2013. So, how do they add punch with limited flexibility?

Amaro has moves to make and they have to be the right moves. He can’t afford to make a big mistake this offseason. 

A free agent outfield group that includes Josh Hamilton, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and B.J. Upton will be the general manager’s focus. 

If the Phillies swing and miss on those big names, look for them to pursue players like Cody Ross, Angel Pagan or Melky Cabrera—who could come at a steep discount after his breakout year was interrupted by a failed drug test.

Current Phillies John Mayberry, Nate Schierholtz, Juan Pierre and Laynce Nix aren’t everyday outfielders. Each one has their limitations, and while a platoon of Mayberry and one of the three left-handed bats could work, the Phillies must add an impact outfielder.

Mayberry has done a serviceable job in center field, but the Phillies could use an upgrade, which leaves Bourn and Upton as the prime candidates.

An interesting under-the-radar move could be to bring Shane Victorino back in the mix, but this would necessitate adding a big bat like Hamilton or Swisher. 

The third base market is extremely weak, and Amaro has said as much. If the Utley Experiment doesn’t come to fruition, a trade may be the only way to bring in a third baseman.

Expect the Phillies to ask about Mike Olt and Chase Headley, though both players would cost the Phillies valuable prospects from a shallow farm system.

Kevin Youkilis could be a cheap boom-or-bust option, but his rapid decline and consistent injury concerns will give the Phillies reason to pause.

With over $133 million locked in for next season’s roster, Amaro must carefully balance how he uses the team’s money.

It won’t be easy, and Amaro won’t have the means to overhaul his roster, but a few carefully calculated moves, the Phillies should be back in contention in 2013.

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Philadelphia Phillies: How Will 2012 Late Bloomers Impact 2013?

On July 31^st, the Philadelphia Phillies sold rather than bought at the trade deadline for the first time since 2006. Ruben Amaro essentially raised the white flag on the 2012 season.

In a pair of moves designed to save cash both this year and next, as well as add depth to their depleted farm system, the team traded Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence on the same day.

Coming off a disappointing 3-game sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, Amaro cut bait. At 45-57, the Phils were out of contention.

Since the trades, the team has gone 29-17, somehow clawing its way back to within four games of the second wild card spot.

It’s likely too little too late as they remain a long shot to make the playoffs (Coolstandings.com currently gives the Phillies a 1.2% chance of playing postseason ball) with four teams that must collapse in front of them, but clearly they’ve turned things around and now sit at .500 with a record of 74-74.

While the team should end up watching October baseball from home for the first time since ‘06, the Phillies may have found some quality pieces that could help the team next year. Erik Kratz, Kevin Frandsen, John Mayberry, Jr., Kyle Kendrick, and Domonic Brown have each played a major role in the team’s recent surge.

Let’s take a look at how they could fit in on the 2013 Phillies.

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Cliff Lee’s Return to Philadelphia: Why It Makes Sense

Around 4 pm EST today, I noticed a tweet from Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman that there was a third team in the Cliff Lee Sweepstakes.

“Word is offer much lower than NYY’s, but it’s also a place Lee loves,” Tweeth Heyman.

Right then and there I knew the Phillies were still in the running. 

Who else could it realistically have been?

Lee was upset when he was traded to the Mariners for three prospects, disappointed that he was not given the opportunity to pitch with Roy Halladay for a winning team.

With Lee back in the fold, that winning should continue.

The Phillies starting rotation featured three premiere pitchers and Lee won’t be a shabby fourth. 

By all accounts, Lee loved his time in Philadelphia and clearly, he must feel a bond with his former teammates, Charlie Manuel, Citizens Bank Park, the city, cheese steaks or something.

After all, the Phillies simply didn’t approach the dollars the Yankees were willing to pay—reported by Buster Olney at six years, $138 million with a player option for a seventh year at $16 million. 

That’s a total of $154,000,000 guaranteed dollars.

And get this: Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reported the Rangers actually put $161 million on the table over seven years, though the seventh year was based on a vesting option. 

Lee turned that down, too.

Early reports have the deal with the Phillies at around $115 million over five years with a vesting option for a sixth year.

He’s certainly not going to be hurting for cash anytime soon, but for a guy everyone assumed would chase the almighty dollar to wherever that took him, the news was shocking.

But let’s look at a few reasons why it makes sense, if not $en$e:

• Lee, in joining the Phillies, could help form arguably the greatest starting pitching rotation of all time. Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee alongside Kyle Kendrick, Vance Worley or even a right-handed throwing Jamie Moyer will simply be dominant as long as they stay healthy.

• This is a good team. They’ve continued to show that they will do anything possible to continue to be a good team. While it’s not difficult to second guess several moves made by GM Ruben Amaro, the organization has proven it will spend money and make deals to make an impact now (unless of course, they are busy trading Lee, which of course, is done with an eye on the future). If I were a Major Leaguer (and I’m not… yet), that would appeal to me.

• I never read a story about Phillies fans harassing Cliff Lee’s wife.

Cliff Lee is a straight shooter. I expect we’ll hear all about why he chose the Phillies over any other team pursuing him. 

I also can’t imagine Lee coming to Philadelphia for any reason other than the opportunity to form one of the greatest rotations of all time.

The Phillies laid the groundwork for this signing last year. When Amaro traded for and extended Roy Halladay and then flipped Lee for prospects, we should have known he’d be back.

It would have saved quite a bit of angst.

And I’m guessing Lee’s agent, Darek Braunecker, negotiated a no-trade clause into this contract so we won’t have to go through this again.

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MLB Free-Agent Hitters: A Top 14 List From Jim Thome To Carl Crawford

I printed out a list of the 2010 MLB free agents (via Cot’s Baseball Contracts) and got to work highlighting the available upper tier players that caught my eye.

As usual, there is an abundance of available pitching help, and specifically, relief depth on the market and because I haven’t seen them all (and to be honest I don’t google “Chad Gaudin highlights” very often) I decided to stick with everyday players for my list.

The list is based solely on who I think the best available free agents are. It does not factor in status (Type A/Type B) that could affect who signs where and whether or not a team loses a draft pick for signing a particular player. In addition, my list obviously does not account for how much each player will earn at their next stop. For example, I’d rather have Orlando Hudson for one year at $4 million than Derek Jeter at five years and $80 million.

I may work on starting pitcher rankings later (*SPOILER ALERT* I’d have Cliff Lee No. 1) but for now, without further ado, here’s my list of the top 13 free agent hitters (player age in in parantheses).

14. Jim Thome (40): The likable Paul Bunyan character is 40 years old but still managed to smash 25 home runs this year in just 276 at-bats! Thome no longer provides any value in the field, but for a measly $1.5 million the Twins got a lot of pop out of the slugger. Don’t expect anything but another one year contract for Thome and don’t be surprised when he outperforms it.

13. Manny Ramirez (39): Is Manny Ramirez the Randy Moss of Major League Baseball? Or is Randy Moss the Manny Ramirez of the NFL? Anyway, Manny is Manny is Manny and this means that he is still feared among Major League pitchers. After the White Sox claimed him off of waivers, however, Manuel slugged just a single home run and a single double in 88 at-bats.

As with Thome, I’d be shocked to see anyone offer him more than just a one-year contract. Just two years ago Manny was looking to cash in on a huge payday. The Dodgers gave him a two-year, $45 million contract and should be thankful they didn’t give into Scott Boras’ demands of a four-year contract for the quickly eroding star.

12. Johnny Damon (37): Despite his terrible arm, Damon has, by the numbers, managed to maintain himself as a league average outfielder due to his speed and instincts. He also continues to find his way on base and can still swipe a bag when needed. Damon’s power dropped quickly (from 24 home runs to 8) after his move to Detroit, but the veteran seems to have gas left in the tank for his next stop.

11. Magglio Ordonez (37): Magglio was putting up some big time numbers last year until a broken ankle sidelined him for the season. Unlike the previous two on this list, Ordonez can at least play a serviceable outfield, though of course it remains to be seen if the injury will affect him.

Another guy who, like Manny, will have to get used to making less money fast, Ordonez nonetheless could be an excellent option for a team in need of a power right-handed bat. I still see him playing best in the American League where he can be used as both a DH and an outfielder.

10. Orlando Hudson (32): The O-Dog just keeps chugging along and will most likely play for his third team in three years in 2011. Hudson continues to play solid, if unspectacular defense and has a good bat for a second baseman. Don’t expect much pop, but do expect another consistent year from a player I believe went from being over-rated to under-rated.

9. Vladimir Guerrero (36): Yes, Vladdy looked terrible in the World Series. It was sad to see him in right field in Game 1 kicking the ball around. Vlad is, of course, no longer an outfielder and should not be treated as such under any circumstances.

The DH Vlad did contribute almost 200 runs to one of the best offenses in baseball and despite his refusal to take many walks, he still managed to hit .300 due to his low strikeout rate. It was a renaissance year for Vlad, one few could have predicted, and despite his poor finish, you can bet an AL team will give him another shot to replicate his regular season in 2011.

8. Carlos Pena (33): It looked as though Pena had it all figured it out until he laid a stink-bomb of a season in 2010 for the Rays. The first baseman failed to crack the Mendoza line with an alarming .196 batting average and has saw his OPS drop 305 points since its height of 1.037 in 2007. All that said, Pena still flashed some power and could benefit from another change of scenery.

7. Paul Konerko (35): Paul Henry Konerko has a special place in my heart as without fail, I find him available in the 15th round of my fantasy baseball draft and without fail, he delivers.

Konerko added 11 home runs to last year’s total and continued to get on base at a high clip. Age and injury concerns regarding his back should keep Konerko in the AL, but he’s an example of another veteran who is still getting it done at the plate well into his 30s.

6. Derek Jeter (37): A slightly better fielder than the No. 5 player on the list (I kid, I kid), Jeter is one of the most thoroughly discussed free agents of the year. Much has been made of his sub-standard year at the plate, but I would not be shocked to see The Captain come back with a vengeance in 2011.

Is he worth $20 million a year over four or five years? Absolutely not, and unless he has a complete lack of self-awareness he knows this.

Yes, he has done great things for the Yankees, but with both his offense and defense in decline, and questions about his future at the shortstop position, he must come to terms with earning tens and not twenties of millions of dollars a year. He ain’t leaving the Yankees, but it will be fascinating to watch the negotiations unfold.

5. Adam Dunn (31): Despite being one of the worst defenders in baseball, Adam Dunn still maintains plenty of value. According to FanGraph’s UZR rating, Dunn picked up his defense at first base this year and while he walked 39 less times than he did in 2009 he continued to display consistent power with 38 dingers to match his output from last year.

The Nationals made a mistake by not trading him for prospects before the deadline this year and it will be interesting to see just how much Dunn commands on the open market. Will National League teams have much interest in him?

4. Victor Martinez (32): ESPN’s Keith Law made this observation on Twitter last night: “If your team needs a catcher who absolutely will not get on base, this is the free agent class of your dreams.” Law was dead on, and V-Mart is the only catcher who is noticeably different compared to his free agent peers (this begs the question: can’t we just roll all the other free agent catcher’s into a hybrid named Jarosedit Pieritanajas?).

Of course, Martinez has his flaws defensively, throwing out a paltry 21 percent of basestealers in 2010. But with his bat, the ability to play catcher, first base and DH, there should be a strong market for the switch-hitter.

3. Adrian Beltre (32): The Red Sox $9 million investment in a year of Beltre turned into a steal when the third baseman OPS’d .919 for the club in 2010. Beltre doesn’t like to walk to first base and probably won’t replicate his .331 batting average on balls in play (his career BAbip is .294) but he remains a premium defender at third base.

The red flag? Beltre has produced his best numbers in contract years when he’s had something to prove. That said, the free swinger showed he can produce at a high level and played in all but eight games. He will get his money.

2. Jayson Werth (32): You probably know Werth’s story by now. High draft pick. Took a while to get to the Show. Had injury issues that were misdiagnosed. Went to the Mayo Clinic and got his wrist right. Signed with the Phillies and his career belatedly took off.

The right-fielder (who can also capably man center) is finally in position to cash in on his first big payday. How much will teams pay for a streaky hitter who has played just three full seasons? He and Beltre are the only (relatively) young right-handed impact bat on the market and my guess is that someone will pay plenty.

1. Carl Crawford (29): The crown jewel of this class, Crawford, like Werth, is a well-rounded outfielder who does a little bit of everything. A workout fiend, Crawford uses his speed to swipe an average of 54 bases per 162 games and play a terrific left field. And he’s not just your run-of-the-mill slap-happy basestealer, either.

The outfielder hit 19 home runs, 30 doubles and 13 triples to prove he’s got some pop in his bat. Look for Crawford to earn the highest contract of any hitter on the market as several teams battle for his services. He deserves it.

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NLCS Heads Back To Philadelphia: Giants Allow Phillies Up Off the Mat in Game 5

A terrific NLCS between the Phillies and Giants will continue Saturday in Philadelphia. Notes from Game 5 are below:

• Buster Posey was a vacuum behind the plate. He wouldn’t allow a pitch to get away from him no matter the location, giving Tim Lincecum the confidence to consistently bury his changeup low. 
• The Phillies clearly had a different approach against Posey, consistently attacking him on the inner half of the plate. The strategy worked as the young star catcher went hitless a night after dominating the Phils’ pitching staff with four hits.
• Ryan Howard has given the Phillies nothing so far this series.
• If Charlie Manuel doesn’t want to hit Placido Polanco between Chase Utley and Ryan Howard consistently, why not use Jayson Werth to break up the left-handed combination? Is there a downside to this?
• Howard made a nice play on a sharp liner by Aubrey Huff in the first inning with two on and no outs. After that however, The Big Piece (probably my least favorite nickname for an athlete ever) misplayed two ground balls. One was ruled an error while the other, incorrectly, was not.
• Freddy Sanchez scares me. The guy is a perfect No. 2 hitter and the hit and run Bochy called for in the first inning was executed perfectly.
• Chase Utley continues to look shaky in the field as well as at the plate. Every time he slips into a slump, local media is quick to play the ‘injury card’ but hey, maybe the guy isn’t otherworldly anymore and falls into rough patches like the rest of the Major League population.
• While Jimmy Rollins has continued his poor approach at the plate, his defense has been sparkling. 
• Despite the Phillies mini-rally in the top of the *third inning, they continue to lack the ability to sustain innings without help from poor pitching or poor defense. The team isn’t maximizing its chances and while home runs are often referred to as “rally killers” what better way to maximize a big inning than a two- or three-run blast? Jayson Werth stroked an opposite-field home run to right field in the top of the ninth for an insurance run, but aside from his Game 1 two-run bomb against Lincecum, the Phillies’ vaunted power has been shut down by the Giants.
• Cody Ross isn’t as good as he’s playing right now. Hitting is such a mental aspect of baseball and Ross simply believes he’s better than he is, if that makes sense. And I’m not taking a shot at the guy; his confidence is off the charts as he continues to lock in on each and every at-bat. Ross is locked in and reacting to, not guessing at pitches.
• As good as Ross has been, it was beautiful to watch Werth hose him in the bottom of the fourth. Ross committed the cardinal sin of baseball: making the third out at third base and it took a perfect strike by Starfox to get the job done.
• I find it strange that there are benches on the playing field in San Francisco. I can only assume this is an old-school style tradition? Either way, it’s a bit odd to me.
• The Giants really made Halladay work forcing him to go deep in counts batter after batter. Even when Doc got ahead of the Giants, he often lacked the ability to put them away immediately, most likely due to his injured groin.
• My wife found it funny that several Giants players were “itching their armpits with their bats” during the bottom of the sixth. I kindly explained that this tactic was used to keep their bats dry in the rain.
• Posey led off with a walk in the bottom of the sixth after two close pitches called for balls on 2-2 and 3-2 counts. As a Phillies fan I wanted those pitches, but I was impressed by Home Plate umpire Jeff Nelson. A lesser man would have been easily intimidated by Roy Halladay, but Nelson stuck to his guns.
• It was a great sign to see Rollins steal both second and third base in the top of the seventh inning. A great at-bat by Chooch put runners on first and third and I thought Bruce Bochy made a huge mistake leaving Lincecum in to pitch to pinch-hitter Ross Gload. Gload smashed the first pitch he saw, which was caught by Huff and turned into a double play.
• I’ve never been to San Francisco, but I can’t imagine a better representation of the difference between the two cities than the lady who came out to sing ‘God Bless America’ during the seventh inning stretch.
• I’d like a few less closeups from Fox of those hideous black playoff beards sported by Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson. I think I dislike Romo’s more, but it’s a tough call. 
• I did enjoy the shots of the San Fran crowd. They were into the game from the first pitch and showed an excited, expectant attitude throughout. They believe in their bunch, and now it’s time for Philadelphians to help fuel their team.
• The Phillies bullpen came up huge. JC Romero hadn’t pitched since Game 2 of the NLDS but got an important out, and Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge dominated. Lidge relied heavily on throwing his slider as a strike, not to get hitters to chase, which is often his plan. The Big Truck, Jose Contreras, came up big yet again as well.
• Madson mowed down the most dangerous section of the Giants lineup, striking out the trio of Posey, Burrell and Ross in the eighth.
• Jayson Werth, like Ryan Howard, is at his best when he’s going the opposite way. Maybe Howard took notes on Werth’s opposite-field insurance bomb and will keep his front shoulder from flying out in Game 6, a key, particularly against the left-handed Jonathan Sanchez.
• I thought Bochy made another bad call when he brought in the left-handed Jeremy Affeldt to pitch to Shane Victorino. Vic looked bad at the plate and hit nearly 90 points higher from the right side on the year. Like the Lincecum vs. Gload move, this one didn’t backfire, but why turn a struggling lefty around?
• White towels > Orange Pom-poms

*The top of the third inning turned the tide. The Phillies looked helpless and harmless against Lincecum through the first two frames. Raul Ibanez’s punched a leadoff single into no-man’s land and after the Giants ace hit Carlos Ruiz in the arm, the inning got strange.

Roy Halladay is a very poor bunter. I’d be surprised if there were five other starting pitchers in the National League who failed more consistently at laying down a solid bunt than Doc. (Maybe the MLB should organize an off-season “Bunt Off” competition between pitchers similar to the Home-Run Derby? I’d watch!)

But anyway, Halladay had a chance to advance two runners into scoring position with just one out. And somehow, someway, he got the job done. It was a crazy play and Pablo Sandoval certainly handed the Phillies a break when he failed to be in position to get the force at third.

After Halladay’s fair/foul bunt The Struggling Shane Victorino stepped to the plate. Victorino hit the ball hard, but right at Aubrey Huff. It wasn’t a difficult play for the first baseman, but he managed to make it look so as he booted the ball into shallow right field. Two runs scored and Victorino, in contrast to Game 4, alertly moved into scoring position.

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Phillies Fail To Do ‘The Little Things’ in NLCS Game 4 and It Costs Them

There’s no doubt about it. That was a heart breaker. And while the Phillies have their Big 3 lined up to attempt to climb out of the hole they find themselves in, they’ll be facing a Big 3 every bit as formidable—at least in these playoffs—of the Giants.

So what went wrong in Game 4? Well, the Phillies finally scored some runs. Five of them in fact. But they had chances to score more.

Every bit as important (and fatal) was poor run prevention. Here’s what I saw happen in Game 5:

THE BIG PICTURE

• I feel like every game has featured an inconsistent strike zone. It was, however, consistently poor for both teams.

• Madison Bumgarner, despite striking out five batters his first time through the Phillies order, didn’t scare me. His fastball was straight and his offspeed pitches were not overly impressive. The Phillies could have and probably should have put more runs on him before getting into the Giants’ bullpen.

• Joe Blanton pitched OK, recovering from early command issues. However, his inability to pitch deep into the game exposed the Phillies’ lack of bullpen depth. The assumption is that our bullpen is fine—and it is when Doc, Oswalt or Hamels go seven, but outside of Madson, Contreras and Lidge, the teams lacks power relievers. While it’s tough to be hard on a guy who pitched just one-third of an inning against the Reds in the postseason, Chad Durbin did not get the job done tonight. His fastball was lifeless and he was lucky to survive the sixth inning allowing just two runs.

 

THE LITTLE THINGS

• I know what a balk is and so does Mitch Williams. First base umpire Jeff Nelson apparently does not.

• Tim McCarver is the worst.

• After prodding from Fox, I considered purchasing stock in Giants Starting Pitching on E-Trade…searched and searched, but couldn’t find it.

• That was the best bunt of Joe Blanton’s life in the fifth inning. He really shocked me there as outside of Halladay, he has to be the worst bunter on the starting pitchers.

• Third base coach Sam Perlozzo cost the Phillies a run when he windmilled Carlos Ruiz home on a Shane Victorino single in the top of the fifth. The team would have had runners on the corners with one out for Chase Utley who singled in his at-bat.

• Shane Victorino showed inattention to detail when he failed to move up to second base on the play at the plate on Ruiz. This did not end up hurting the Phils as Placido Polanco came up with a huge two-out double, but when the offense is struggling, you need to take advantage of every opportunity.

• Jimmy Rollins went 0-3 with RISP and had a particularly horrendous at-bat in the top of the eighth. After Howard and Werth started the inning with back-to-back doubles, Rollins lofted a weak pop-up to shallow left field, failing in his duty to advance Werth to third.

• Second guessing Charlie: Why not bring in a lefty to pitch to Huff in the bottom of the fifth? Why not pinch-hit for Ben Francisco with Ross Gload or Raul Ibanez against Sergio Romo in the top of the eighth? Yes, Francisco can hit a fastball from either a lefty or a righty, but Romo had no intention of giving in and threw him three straight sliders.

• Leadoff walks to Andres Torres in the fifth and Pat Burrell in the sixth turned into two runs for the Giants. YOU CAN’T WALK THE LEADOFF MAN. Especially, when those leadoff men are Torres and Burrell.

• Placido Polanco misplayed a potential double play ball in the bottom of the fifth that would eventually allow Torres to score. Combining a leadoff walk with a misplay with a bad matchup of Blanton vs. Huff for a run was a frustrating result.

• I think it may have been a mistake to include Domonic Brown on the playoff roster. He’s basically useless as a pinch-hitter, going 3-for-17 on the year as a substitute. As terrible as Greg Dobbs was on the year, I’d prefer his experience to seeing Brown look simply overmatched in his two postseason trips to the plate.

• Juan Uribe made the play of the game robbing Ross Gload of a hit to lead off the ninth. Of course, Gload could easily have been called safe (tie goes to the runner, si?).

• Brian Wilson is either a lot better than I thought he was or he’s simply pitching right now a lot better than he actually is. As Buck and McCarver correctly pointed out, he hasn’t given the Phillies a chance to do much damage against him. He’s stayed on the outer half of the plate and thrown strikes. I do not fear his beard.

• I still don’t know what to think about tossing Oswalt out there. Obviously the move didn’t work, as Roy was charged with the loss and apparently he had already thrown his bullpen session in preparation for Saturday’s (hopeful) start. Seems a bit risky to me, but then of course, Charlie’s alternatives were Kyle Kendrick and JC Romero. Desperate times call for desperate measures I guess.

• Just in case he reads this, Dan Lauletta correctly pointed out on Facebook that Carlos Ruiz has to be questioned a bit for some of his calls behind the plate. First and foremost was the offspeed pitch he called against Juan Uribe that turned into the game winning sacrifice fly. I’m guessing his thought process was to surprise Uribe after four straight fastballs but the move backfired. In addition, the high fastball he called for in Pablo Sandoval’s at-bat wasn’t my cup of tea. 89 MPH fastballs at the belt can get smashed in the big leagues, and the Panda smashed Durbin’s offering.

• Cody Ross. What a pain in the neck. I’m not going to blame Chooch for the ongoing Cody issues. I can’t remember a pitch he’s hit well where Chooch wasn’t moving his glove. I’m pretty sure he’s not calling low inside fastballs, but that everyone keeps missing their spots. I think whoever is facing him is just psyched out by his present aura of invincibility and is trying to be too perfect. As a reminder to Phillies pitchers everywhere: He’s still Cody Ross.

• The Phillies had kept Buster Posey under control in the series so far. Until tonight. It didn’t look like anything they threw him would get him out. Each and every at-bat was very impressive. Oswalt had him down 0-2 in the bottom of the ninth and after just missing a double down the line and spoiling a tough two strike pitch, he poked a single down the line that setup the game-winning sac fly.

There is still light at the end of the tunnel. The offense showed a pulse in Game 4 and I’d say contrary to popular belief, Lincecum didn’t exactly dominate the Phillies in Game 1. They can hit him, but as Wee Willie Keeler would say, the key is “to hit it where they ain’t.”

I don’t see Halladay making the same mistakes he made in Game 1. The key is to bring the series back home and get the crowd involved. The friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park should produce a few home runs and for an offense struggling to sustain more than one (if that) rally per game, the long ball can be a cure-all.

It’ll be difficult, but this remains a winnable series for the Phillies. I still believe…a little.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2010 MLB Playoffs: Time to Grow an Ugly Beard…And Preview Phillies-Reds Game 1

Yes, it’s that time of year again. The time of year when I grow yet another hideous playoff beard.

My wife hates it. It’s itchy. It’s ugly. It’s embarrassing. It has no redeeming qualities. And to make matters worse I have to shave my mustache which is incredibly patchy and unbalanced. This results in an Amishesque look which is none too becoming. That said, it has to be done and that’s all there is to it.

Sorry wifey.

While I realize that the vast majority of you are here for my playoff beard analysis and predictions, we will instead take a look at game 1 of the National League Divisional Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cincinnati Reds.

Here goes.

PHILLIES

The matchup is intriguing. Philadelphia is coming off two straight trips to the World Series and yet they continue to show a hunger to reach the pinnacle of baseball once again.  The injury-riddled 2010 version of the team often showed no resemblance to the one that torched the National League in 2008 and 2009.

And yet here they are again, anointed the favorite to once again lay claim to the National League Championship.  They are the team to beat and they know it.

An unparalleled starting rotation fronted by Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels form an intimidating top three. The drop off to Joe Blanton is precipitous, but as the Yankees proved last year, a dominant trio can get the job done. And this Phillies threesome trumps the Yankees.

Much was made of the Phillies offensive struggles this year, though the team hit its stride when it mattered most. While the greatest strength of this team is its starting pitching, its offense isn’t far behind.

And while the stars didn’t shine as bright as they have in years past, the depth of this lineup is what truly separates it from the rest. There are no easy outs.

The loss of Placido Polanco could hurt the Phillies though I believe him to be their most replaceable starter.  Wilson Valdez should fill in nicely at third base equaling Polly’s sure-handedness while providing a stronger arm and perhaps a bit more range.

At the plate, Valdez is a downgrade but he did manage to hit .313 in the months of September and October.  He is also faster than Polanco which should not be overlooked.

I believe the absence of Polanco hurts the team more in terms of depth as I do not see a significant downgrade in their starting lineup. Danger could present itself if Jimmy Rollins re-injures himself and Polanco’s back does not allow him to return to the field quickly. The Phillies do not want to have to play Greg Dobbs regularly, if at all.

REDS

There is a soft spot in my heart for Cincinnati as I once played alongside (OK, OK, mostly watched from the bench) Chris Heisey, a reserve outfielder on the team. I wish him the best, but sadly I cannot say the same for the rest of the Reds.

Cincinnati has two very scary hitters: Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. Votto’s crushed the ball all year long, but it took until the final two months of the season for Bruce to come on. The former #1 prospect in baseball is still just 23 years old and he mashed 15 of his 25 home runs in his final 33 games.

In addition to their left-handed stars, the Reds have a nice mix of veterans and to fill out their lineup. Scott Rolen provides playoff experience and leadership as well as a solid bat and a great glove. Brandon Phillips can be a sparkplug, though he has struggled of late, possibly due to injury. Jonny Gomes, though streaky, once again provided great production.

Perhaps the biggest offensive key for the team could be the play of Drew Stubbs who has provided more pop in the Major Leagues than he did in any of his Minor League stops.

Pitching wise the Reds boast a solid bullpen but cannot matchup with the Phillies starting pitchers. Of course, no other team in baseball can do that right now.

Edinson Volquez pitched well in his final four starts of the year, but these starts came against Pittsburgh, Arizona, Milwaukee and Houston. With 62 2/3 innings pitched on the year, throwing Volquez in Game 1 is a roll of the dice, but I don’t think Dusty Baker has a great alternative. When healthy Volquez was an ace, and if he is back to that form, he will give the Phillies trouble.

 

Wrapup/Today’s Game:

We’ve got about an hour to go before today’s game so I’d better get this wrapped up, incomplete as it may be.

Roy Halladay takes the mound against Volquez. This is a mismatch, but Volquez does have the raw stuff to come up big for the Reds.

If Halladay can prevent Votto and Bruce from hurting him I don’t see the rest of the lineup doing much damage. The Doctor will be pumped and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an erratic first inning by him. I’d be shocked however if he doesn’t provide his typical 7 or 8 strong innings.

Volquez might cruise through the lineup his first time through, but this Phillies team is patient. Volquez walked 35 batters in his 62 2/3 innings this year (Halladay walked just 30 in 250 2/3 innings!) and walks turn solo home runs into two and three run bombs. Not good!

That’s it, have to go shave now for the last time in hopefully about a month.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

The List You’ve Been Waiting For: My 10 Favorite Phillies

It’s easy to root for a winning team, but what makes it even easier is when that winning team is made up of a bunch of likable guys.

The Phillies have a roster full of character players who truly enjoy the game. They play hard and they like each other. And as proven by their appearance in the previous two World Series, this team is good.

Here’s a look at my 10 favorite Phillies on a squad with a lot of guys to like.

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