Cliff Lee Press Conference: 5 Questions On Lee’s Return To Philadelphia

Cliff Lee is officially a member of the Philadelphia Phillies. The papers have been signed and sealed. Now it’s up to Lee to deliver.

The organization is counting on him to do just that, to the tune of a cool $120 million.

No pressure though, Mr. Lee. Vegas and baseball enthusiasts everywhere only expect you and Phillies to turn the National League into your own personal playground en route to a World Series appearance.

And if you don’t win a title, don’t sweat it. There will be plenty of blame to travel up and down the payroll, which, as of this moment, exceeds $170 million.

But never mind the Series. Before you or any other of the New Four Horsemen hurls a ball plateward this season, there are some questions to answer.

 

 

Do the Phillies Now Own One of the Best Rotations of All Time?

 

If you believe in the power of sabremetrics, then yes.

According Sports Illustrated’s Cliff Corcoran, who accumulated 2011 statistics for each of Philadelphia’s Big Four using Baseball Prospectus’ Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Above Replacement (SNLVAR) — geez, what a mouthful — the quartet of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt compares favorably with some of history’s best pitching foursomes.

Corcoran’s projections predict that in 2011, the Big Four will be worth 26.6 wins above replacement, a figure that compares favorably to what the numbers indicate are the two best pitching rotations since 1954: the 1966 Dodgers and 1997 Braves.

[Side note: For those not up-to-date on their scientific baseball lexicon, the WAR formula assesses how many wins a player is worth over the course of a season.]

That Dodger rotation, which included three future Hall of Famers among the foursome of Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, Claude Osteen, and Don Sutton, registered 32.5 wins above replacement. The Braves rotation, with the unforgettable trio of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine, was fraction behind at 32.4.

You make the call. Does the Phillies rotation deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as some of the best of all time?

My answer is no, at least until they prove the numbers are accurate.

 

 

How Many Runs Will Lee and Co. Require?

 

You would think not many. None of the Big Four has a career ERA over 3.85. In fact, in 37 combined years of major league service, there have been only five instances in which any of them recorded an ERA higher than 4.32 in a given season.

The next logical question is, can the explosive Philadelphia offense, which finished 2009 ranked seventh in runs scored, get the job done more often than not?

When you average together the career ERAs of Lee, Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt, the result is 3.47. In other words, all the Phillies have to do is score four runs a game and they’ll win 130 games in 2011, right?

Easier said than done.

I went into minor detail yesterday about the possible pitfalls that may await the Philadelphia lineup in the absence of Jayson Werth, who was either first or second on the team in nearly every major statistical category last season.

Who picks up the slack? Maybe Domonic Brown, but the 23-year-old only has 62 career at-bats and may not be ready to provide the Phillies with a legitimate threat either in front of or behind Ryan Howard.

Another thing to keep in mind: assuming Brown becomes a mainstay in the place of Werth, the average age of the Phillies lineup this season is nearly 32 years of age. As many teams are trending younger to save cash, Philadelphia will be one of baseball’s older teams. Can they support the pitching staff on a consistent basis over a 162-game season?

 

 

Is the Contract Too Long?

 

Lee signed a deal that guarantees him $120 million over the next five seasons. It also includes a vesting option worth an additional $27.5 million for 2016. Of the three teams lobbying for Lee, Philadelphia was the only one whose offer didn’t include guaranteed money for six seasons; the Yankees offered two deals, one of which guaranteed seven years, while Rangers offered a seventh year as a vesting option.

Lee took the shortest deal. Still, is his new contract too lengthy? Assuming Lee pitches either 200 innings in 2010 or 400 innings over the course of the 2014-15 seasons, and his option vests, he’ll be pitching during the back end of his final season at age 38.

True, left handers generally last longer than right handers, but what kind of production justifies paying that sort of money to a 38 year old Lee, who would be in his 15^th season in 2016?

I suppose that’s why the deal also includes a buyout, valued at a slightly smaller $12.5 million.

Also consider that of the 52 free agent pitchers that have signed deals of four years or more since 1990, only five have averaged 30-plus starts and posted an ERA 20 percent better than the league average, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

 

 

If Not No. 1, Then Where?

 

There’s more than one numbers game involving Lee in Philadelphia, the first of which has to do with the terms of his contract. The other is which slot of the rotation he fills: No. 1 or No. 2?

In all fairness to Roy Halladay and his recent historical heroics last season, he should be the undisputed ace of the staff. He has proven more consistently over the course of his career that he is deserving of that role. But disregarding the whole right-left-right-left setup, wouldn’t Oswalt, whose career ERA of 3.18 trumps Lee’s 3.85, have just as much a right to that second spot? And what about Hamels, whose 3.53 career ERA would fit nicely in the No. 3 hole?

I suppose in the grand scheme of things it really doesn’t matter, but isn’t $20 million just a tad too much to be paying a pitcher that, statistically, is only your rotation’s fourth-best performer?

 

 

Does Lee Really Make the Phillies Better?

 

There’s something to be said for team chemistry. It doesn’t necessarily come in the form of dollars and cents or home runs and on-base percentage. And some managers will tell you they’d rather have a second-tier player who meshes well with the remainder of the locker room than a superstar whose antics threaten to tear at the fabric of the team.

Often times, camaraderie trumps talent. Just ask the 2008 Yankees, who finished third in the AL East and missed the playoffs despite a payroll that neared $210 million.

I’m not insinuating that Lee has been or will be a destructive force. He clearly made the Phillies better in 2009, and there’s no reason to believe his likeable character won’t gel with his teammates this time around.

But there are no promises. Perhaps more in baseball than in any other professional sport, teams have to coalesce into a single, cohesive unit from season to season in order to be successful.

The Phillies had that make up each of the past three seasons. It was one of the biggest driving forces behind their success, and maybe the main reason why they came so close to becoming the first NL team to win three consecutive pennants since the St. Louis Cardinals of the 1940s.

The Phillies may ultimately win 100-plus games with Lee on the roster for a full season. But as the dog days of August give way to playoff races in September, will the Phillies—who welcome back roughly the same cast of characters as in recent seasons—have the right chemistry to propel them into October?

Or will the addition of one single player, even one of Lee’s modesty, be enough to derail what has been the most successful run in team history?  

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Joe Blanton Trade Rumors: Updates on Latest Trade Talk

Joe Blanton may as well be invisible.

Because when your rotation is as deep and talented as that of the Phillies, the person responsible for taking the ball last is of minimal concern.

A somewhat forgotten byproduct at the back end of the Philadelphia staff, Blanton was already obscured by the shadows cast by Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt.

Then came the signing of Cliff Lee, which has led to reports that the 30-year-old will be one of the first to go in what could be a series of cost-cutting moves designed to make ample room for the staff’s newest gem.

Needless to say, with the Phillies investing more than $60 million in the “Fearsome Foursome” for 2011, it was only a matter of time before reservations at the chopping block were made for Blanton, who is owed $17 million over the next two seasons—an extraordinary amount of money designated for a player expected to be no more than a fifth starter.

Maybe that’s why Philadelphia is inquiring about the much older but significantly cheaper Pedro Martinez, who was a surprise contributor to the Phillies’ World Series run in 2009 and could be offered a risk-free contract laden with incentives.

Must Read: Power Ranking the Top Players Who’ll Change Teams Before 2011

 

Acquiring a bargain option like Martinez would make trading Blanton, who won nine games and posted a 4.82 ERA in 28 starts a season ago, an absolute no-brainer.

But making the decision to part ways with Blanton may be the easy part for Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. Teams have reportedly stipulated that any deal involving Blanton would require Amaro Jr. and the Phillies eating some of Blanton’s salary, so the pitcher’s presence would still linger on the books.

If you’re paying a portion of his salary anyway, wouldn’t it be easier just to retain Blanton, who has started at least 30 games and pitched at least 190 innings in a season five times?

Then again, Amaro Jr. made it clear at the Winter Meetings that the Phillies need to begin developing young players, and a Blanton deal would likely provide the farm system with some mid-level prospects.

Under that scenario, any number of teams would presumably show interest in striking a deal for Blanton, allowing Philadelphia to purse the cost-effective Martinez, insert a player such as Kyle Kendrick into the rotation, or option someone from the Triple A level to replace Blanton.

Boston was reported to be one of the first teams to inquire about Blanton, but that amounted to nothing more than a rumor after the Red Sox indicated that no deal was in place. Next up seems to be the Brewers, which, like all other teams eyeing Blanton, want the Phillies to foot a good portion of the bill.

Several other teams that, according to the Web site MLBTradeRumors.com, could be a fit for Blanton include: Washington, Minnesota, Seattle, Baltimore, Kansas City and Oakland. Even Texas and the Yankees could be interested, seemingly in search of a cheap alternative after missing out on Lee.

With pitching at a premium across baseball, the Phillies will field plenty of interest regarding Blanton between now and Spring Training. For now, the team appears to be in a holding pattern, fully content on letting the offers play out so they can choose the best plan of action.

Which, if teams are going to demand the Phillies eat Blanton’s paychecks for the next two seasons, oddly enough could be not trading him at all.

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Cliff Lee and the Philadelphia Phillies: Why They’re Doomed To Disappoint

Cliff Lee is a happy man.

Forget the fact he swindled himself out of more than $30 million to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies. Okay, maybe not swindled, because Lee voluntarily left that money on the table.

He knew what he was doing. He knew he’d be the most at peace in Philadelphia. His trial run there in 2009 — despite the fact the Phillies failed to sign him that time around — was nothing short of magical.

So, it is with shallower pockets but a lighter heart that Lee comes to Philadelphia, providing an already intimidating gang of starters with an additional bully.

Watch out, National League East: Lee’s signing may have been the ultimate kill shot. Sorry, Atlanta Braves: the division was previously a table for two, and you’ve just been asked to leave.

Not only are the Phillies unanimous favorites to win the East, odds makers in Vegas have been influenced by the Lee deal, adjusting Philadelphia’s chances of winning it all from 5-1 to 5-2 overnight — the best in baseball ahead of the Yankees.

The quartet of Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt is unrivaled in baseball: Thirteen All-Star appearances. A combined record of 481-275 and an aggregate ERA of 3.47. Two World Series titles. One perfect game. One no-hitter.

All that and at an average age of 30 — not exactly youthful in baseball years, but not yet geriatric.

The Phillies should be dominant on the mound, just as they should be proficient at the plate — even sans Jayson Werth. Though, it appears, they won’t have to score very much.

On paper, Philadelphia has the look of a 100-win team — easy. By locking up Lee, the Phillies have made the unrealistic prospect of winning four out of every five games somewhat realistic. Based on preseason projections and expectations alone, their backs will be fitted for targets before a pitch is even thrown.

Maybe that’s why the Phillies will disappoint in 2011.

Suppose they win 106 games during the regular season, breeze through the NLDS and NLCS, but come one run short of a world title. Is that, then, considered a disappointment? Some would say yes.

What if Halladay doesn’t even sniff either a perfect game or a no-hitter in 2011, and both Hamels and Oswalt, who has the best career ERA (3.18) of the four, perform like your average third and fourth starters? Does that constitute an underachieving staff?

And assume Lee finishes a hair below his numbers from a season ago (12-9, 3.18), or even those from his first go-around in Philly (3.39 in 12 starts). Will the Phillies’ shrewdness and $120 million sneak attack against the Yankees and Rangers be for naught?

No, but the goals that were set the moment Lee signed on the dotted line say otherwise.

The Phillies now have upwards of $170 million dedicated to the 2011 payroll, including more than $60 million tied up in the Big Four of Lee, Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt. Even if starter Joe Blanton, as rumors suggest, is dealt to create space, they would still leapfrog the Red Sox for the second-highest payroll in the majors.

With that sort of cash flying around, isn’t it only reasonable to expect big, big things from Philadelphia this season, much like we do annually from the Yankees, who hand out the game’s most exorbitant paychecks?

Again, most people would say yes.

And what of the offense? There’s a good chance the lineup won’t operate on auto-pilot as often as it did with Werth, who at times was like Robin to Ryan Howard’s Batman, leading the team in games played, runs, walks, doubles, and on-base percentage, and finishing second in home runs, RBI, and hits.

Already under the microscope, much like the pitching staff, how much pressure will be applied to the Phillies’ hitters if they fail to perform consistently? After all, you can’t hold down the opposition’s offense every night.

Philadelphia has the ingredients available for a dream season. But if things don’t go exactly according to plan, which will likely be nothing less than a World Series title, the 2011 campaign may be a recipe for disaster.

How will Lee feel then?

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