Will the Philadelphia Phillies Need to Rebuild After the 2013 Season?

Spring training is quickly approaching with many of the big-name free agents off the market.  The Philadelphia Phillies failed to make a major splash this offseason, as they have been known to do in previous offseasons under general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.

The Phillies had several holes that they wanted to address this offseason, many of which were successfully done by Christmas.  The biggest free-agent signing the Phillies made this year was eighth-inning relief pitcher Mike Adams, to address the major weakness of the bullpen.

The Phillies also acquired a center fielder in Ben Revere and a third baseman in Michael Young, both via trade.  The Revere trade required the Phillies to deal starter Vance Worley, so they addressed that hole by signing John Lannan.

The Phillies certainly have addressed the holes they needed to fill except for the corner outfield position, as they are preparing to enter spring training with a number of unproven major league players there.

However, the bulk of the question marks surrounding the Phillies are not with the corner outfielders, but with several of the core players. 

The Phillies suffered an extremely disappointing season in 2012.  This was largely due to injuries of several players, three of which leave the Phillies questioning their status and ability to return to form with the 2013 season approaching.

Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley were injured for a major portion of last season, and if they are not recovered for 2013 we may be in stock for another disappointing year.

Utley missed the beginning of a large chunk of the season due to a knee injury, for the second season in a row (albeit the other knee).  Utley batted .256 with 11 home runs and 45 RBI in 83 games played.  If Utley is healthy this year, he will be a key cog in a previously stagnant offense.

Utley’s numbers improved as he played through the season, excepting the 0-for-11 he hit in October.  He did hit his high point last season in September, hitting .299 with a .405 OBP.  If Utley can remain healthy, he should contribute strong numbers to the Phillies offense. 

If he is not healthy, will we get an opportunity to see the defensive guru Freddy Galvis, who has yet to completely develop offensively.

Halladay suffered a Grade 2 strain of his labrum last season, causing him to suffer his worst season since 2004.  He had a 4.49 ERA through 156.1 innings pitched.  Some think that he is on a downward trend, whereas others believe that he suffered through a shoulder injury from spring training that caused his performance to suffer all season. 

If Halladay recovers, the pitching staff will be much stronger than in 2012.

Ryan Howard also missed a great deal of time in 2012 due to his torn Achilles tendon.  Howard was never expected to return to 100 percent last season, and if he continues to recover, he will be the great offensive power threat the Phillies expect him to be. 

In 71 games played, he hit .219 with 14 home runs and 56 RBI.  Howard needs to return to being the “big piece.”  He is the only one of these three players that is a guaranteed Phillie after 2013.

So, the question becomes, do the Phillies rebound this year, or do they use 2013 as a transition year to rebuild?

The Phillies have five players that they could lose after this season due to free agency.  Those players include Utley, Halladay, Laynce Nix, Michael Young and John Lannan.

Halladay is eligible for a $20 million vesting option for the 2014 season, but it is unlikely that he will meet its requirements.  To be eligible, Halladay needs to have pitched 415 or more innings between the 2012 and 2013 seasons.  With Halladay having only pitched 156.1 innings in 2012, he would have to pitch a career-high 258.2 innings in 2013.

That is not to say that Halladay will not return in 2014, but it will likely not be via the vesting option.  Of course, if Halladay really is on the decline or suffers further injuries this year, it may be time to part ways and rebuild after this season anyway.

Utley will have to play the majority of the season in order for the Phillies to tender him a contract.  If he does suffer with injuries again this season, it may be time for Galvis to step up into the second baseman role in 2014.

Young will likely only play this season in Philadelphia.  The Phillies have Cody Asche, who has been progressing through the minors quickly at third base and could be major league-ready in 2014. 

So, with Jimmy Rollins at shortstop, Howard at first, Utley or Galvis at second and perhaps Asche at third for the 2014 season, the Phillies infield is set and would be an average of 5.5 years younger, assuming the Phillies have Galvis and not Utley.

Revere will be manning center field for quite some time in Philadelphia, but if the Phillies rebuild after 2013, the corner outfield positions and starting pitchers may be the holes that the Phillies will need to fill to be competitive, especially if they are using internal options for the infield.

Fortunately for the Phillies, if they do need to rebuild after 2013, the free-agent market is currently well-stocked with starting pitchers and outfielders set to hit the market after this season.  The Phillies could look at Josh Johnson, James Shields, Phil Hughes, Matt Garza or many other options to fill any hole or holes in the rotation.

In the outfield, the Phillies would have the option to reunite with Hunter Pence, who is due to hit the market after 2013.  They could also look at Curtis Granderson or Jacoby Ellsbury and shift the outfield positioning around.  There are many more options for the outfield if the Phillies find holes there after this season.

At this point, it is best to hope that the key players the Phillies have rebound to meet their potential.  If Utley, Howard and Halladay return to their normal form and Young puts up numbers similar to his 2012 numbers, or even more like his 2011 performance, the Phillies are in for a good season. 

However, if after 2013, the Phillies need to rebuild, there will be many options on the free-agent market and many pieces internally to help create a younger and more competitive team.

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Philadelphia Phillies: The Interesting Case of John Mayberry Jr.

I have been a fan of John Mayberry Jr. since being brought back up from the AAA Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs in the summer of 2011. 

I was pushing for him to become an everyday starter for the 2012 season.  He should a great deal of promise and potential in late 2011.

From July through September of 2011, Mayberry hit .301 with 12 homeruns and 37 RBI.  If he could maintain that production over the course of a season, he may have been one of the most cost-effective producers on the team for the 2012 season.

There was speculation as to whether or not he could be an everyday starter come spring training.  During the course of spring training, he suffered dismally at the plate, but Charlie Manuel still penciled him in for left field and first base as an everyday starter.

Mayberry was in a peculiar position when the season started, because the Phillies did not have an everyday first baseman with Ryan Howard on the disabled list for an undefined period of time. 

The Phillies would use a number of different options between first base and left field, having Mayberry, Laynce Nix, Ty Wiggington and even Jim Thome trying their hands at first base.  Left field was also seeing a few players circulate it, including Mayberry, Juan Pierre, Nix, Hector Luna and even Wigginton.

With the Phillies offense suffering approaching the trade deadline, the Phillies decided to deal a few players to help prepare for the following season. This allowed some of the young players to try to prove themselves able to play every day. 

With Howard and Chase Utley back in the lineup, the offense was somewhat more stable.

The team saw many young and still undefined players try to earn their way into guaranteed starting positions. 

With Shane Victorino having been dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Mayberry became the starter in center field for the bulk of the end of the season.  Mayberry proved himself to be a better player during the summer than he was during the spring again.

That brings up the question as to whether he is a warm-weather hitter or if he is better with consistent play. 

For some time, I thought he was proving himself to be a warm weather hitter, a statement that would be supported by looking at his numbers for the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

In 2011 before the all star break he hit .244 with a .326 on-base percentage, a .439 slugging and a .765 OPS.  For the same season after the all star break he hit .299 with a .354 OBP, .576 SLG and .930 OPS.

In the 2012 season before the All Star break he hit for .232 with a .269 OBP, .377 SLG and .646 OPS.  After the all star break he hit .256 with a .327 OBP, .410 SLG and .737 OPS.

During both of these seasons, the only two seasons where he has had a fair major league sampling, he has received substantially more play time after the All Star break. 

So what do these numbers prove? 

What has been answered after he spent the entire year in the majors for the first time and got several opportunities to prove himself?

We cannot be sure if he can be an everyday starter. 

He certainly has a history of performing better when he is playing every day, but he also has a history of being a very streaky hitter.  We cannot say that he is just a warm weather hitter, because he hit above average during the month of May in 2012 but was in the basement in April and June.

Judging him by his numbers, he hit .245 with 14 homeruns and 46 RBI across the entire season, which is slightly lower than the .263, 20 homerun, 57 RBI season that Scott Hairston had, a player with whom the Phillies have been linked this offseason.

Mayberry did hit better with a guarantee to play every day, there is no question about that. 

Of course, there is a correlation to this and the return of both Ryan Howard and Chase Utley to the lineup.  Perhaps the lessening of the pressure on him about playing every day and being one of the key producers helped him to feel more comfortable and perform better overall.

One thing is for sure: 2013 will be different than 2012. 

Mayberry is a solid defensive player, particularly in the corner outfield positions, and, as of right now, there are no guarantees for either corner outfield position.  Mayberry is in an interesting position because he may have a second season to try to prove himself, and maybe this time he will live up to the expectations that were once placed upon him.

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Should the Philadelphia Phillies Trade Their Starting Pitchers Before They Age?

In an offseason where the Philadelphia Phillies have had to focus on filling several holes after a disappointing regular season, there have been many rumors and transactions proposed to the Phillies by teams seeking one of their aces. 

Before the July 31 trade deadline, Cole Hamels was one such target by teams seeking to improve their pitching staff.  The Texas Rangers were rumored to be in on a trade that would send Hamels to Arlington.  The same rumors circulated involving sending Cliff Lee back to Arlington.

After the trade deadline had passed, the Los Angeles Dodgers had claimed Lee off of waivers before the Phillies had removed him from the trade waivers.  The Phillies are largely built around their strong pitching staff.  Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. had said that trading Lee would be a bad move after having given Hamels the lucrative extension on July 25.  Amaro has built a team around having a strong pitching rotation, and dealing one of the three aces would be counterproductive.

That has not stopped teams from approaching the Phillies about a possible trade for Lee, however.  During the offseason, the Phillies have needed to fill a hole at third base, the back end of the bullpen and essentially all outfield positions, particularly center field.  The Phillies essentially could have filled all three outfield positions this offseason, which did not guarantee players for any of those positions.

The Phillies did acquire Ben Revere in early December, filling their hole at center field, but creating a hole in the pitching rotation, as the trade cost the Phillies pitcher Vance Worley.  The Phillies also traded for Michael Young, who will fill the team’s need at third base.  Shortly before Christmas, the team also signed relief pitcher Mike Adams to fill the hole in the bullpen and John Lannan to fill the hole that Worley left.

Throughout the offseason, there have been rumors of teams offering deals for Lee that would certainly fill a need for the Phillies in the outfield.  One such trade was from the Arizona Diamondbacks, who proposed a trade sending right fielder Justin Upton to Philadelphia and Lee to Arizona. 

The Phillies are lacking right-handed power hitters and a guaranteed right fielder.  The team is also lacking young players, and Upton, at 25 years old, would fill all of those needs.  The Phillies did not bite on that deal, however, even though they would love to acquire Upton, just not for Lee.

The Boston Red Sox likewise offered a deal for Lee that would send Jacoby Ellsbury to Philadelphia.  That would also fill the same needs for Philadelphia, excepting that Ellsbury is a left-handed hitter.  That deal, too, was never one the Phillies seriously considered.

In the recent years, the run-scoring ability of the Phillies has lessened.  The runs scored each season by the Phillies have gone down since the 2009 season.  In 2009, the Phillies scored 820 runs.  That total was down to 684 runs with the 2012 season.  This also happened to be the same season where the Phillies pitching had suffered. 

Usually, teams who score less can still win ball games if they can keep the other team from scoring.  The Phillies had been able to do that, as their team has gradually been built around their rotation.  However, if the rotation is failing to do its job as effectively as it once did, that poses a serious question the team needs to face: Should the Phillies trade their pitchers while they still have value enough to bring a player or players back who can provide offense?

All of the deals that have been proposed seem to focus on Cliff Lee.  That is largely due to him having less years due on his contract than Hamels and being more of a guarantee than Roy Halladay after Halladay suffered his worst season since 2007.  Halladay is coming off of an injury-plagued season, and he will soon be 36 years old.  Many fear that we are seeing his decline after having a 2012 season where he went 11-8 with a 4.49 ERA, 36 BB, 132 K and a 1.222 WHIP.

Halladay has apparently changed his offseason approach, which he claims will make the difference.  A lot of teams are probably fearful that he has started to decline or that his injuries will effect his 2013 season.  That may be why he is not the subject of much trade speculation. 

There are a few things to keep in mind about Halladay however.  He is a competitor, and he will do everything in his power to not only return to where he was in 2011, but go beyond that.  If there is anybody who believes that Roy Halladay is not on the decline, it is Halladay himself.  We should keep in mind that we are only one bad, injury-plagued season away from the best season in his career, where he went 19-6 with a 2.35 ERA, 35 BB, 220 K and a 1.04 WHIP and eight complete games.

Halladay did have a terrible 2012 season.  The injuries could be seen to have effected him even in the spring.  Some people noticed how many breaking balls he had thrown in the early season, which caused some concern for his shoulder before the injury was made apparent in late May.  Halladay at this point will not carry as much trade value as he once did, and probably still deserves, until he starts throwing in spring training. 

In 2012, we only saw one month where Halladay was pitching like the Halladay we all know and expect.  The Phillies remain optimistic about his return to his normal pitching ability, but ultimately, time will tell with that. 

Halladay did appear to be somewhat himself again in August, when he pitched to the tune of a 3.32 ERA and when hitters batted .238 against him.  One thing we should all keep in mind is that nobody works as hard as Halladay does.  He will be focused on returning to ace form this offseason.  The Phillies cannot afford for anything else with a team built pitchers, and Halladay would not allow himself to become a sub-par pitcher.

Despite coming off of the 2010 season where he threw a perfect game and a postseason no-hitter, Halladay’s 2011 season was perhaps the best of his career.  Halladay very well could have won the 2011 Cy Young award had Clayton Kershaw not had the pitching triple crown that year.  The 2011 pitching staff for the Phillies is the best pitching staff in all of baseball since 1990, but we will come back to that shortly.

Cliff Lee suffered a fate that was usually suffered by Cole Hamels, where he received no run support.  Lee was perhaps the unluckiest pitcher this year, having only had a 6-9 record with a 3.16 ERA, 28 BB, 207 K and a 1.114 WHIP.  Lee also suffered some from injuries after he took a shutout through 10 innings against the San Francisco Giants. 

His record this season does not do justice to how well he played.  Lee was basically lights-out through the month of September, where he posted a 1.05 ERA in six starts and allowed five earned runs and had 44 K in 43.1 innings pitched.  We should expect nothing less than that from Lee in the next season as well.

Cole Hamels was the ace of the staff in 2012 with a 17-6 record and a 3.05 ERA, 2 CG, 2 SHO, 52 BB, 216 K and a 1.124 WHIP.  This was the best season of Hamels’ career thus far.  He was also the recipient of an extension, keeping him in the peppermint pinstripes for many years to come.  Hamels was steady throughout the season, which says something, because he was perhaps the only player who was, other than Carlos Ruiz.

Overall, these three pitchers should not be going anywhere.  Amaro has built the team around these aces.  They collectively are only one year away from their 2011 season where they were the best team since 1990 in things that they can control.  This is referring to a specific statistic: FIP.  FIP measures things directly within the pitcher’s control, which are strikeouts, walks and home runs and removes the variables of the quality of defense and the luck of the batter. 

In the 2011 season, the Phillies had a 2.98 ERA, which is better than any other team in the time period of 1990-2011.  The closest team to them within that time period is the 1997 Atlanta Braves, who posted a 3.30 ERA in this category.

There are several factors as to why the Phillies were only 81-81 this season, and starting pitching is not the leading cause to why they finished the season this poorly.  During this season, the Phillies lost 13 games after the seventh inning, which was due to a poor and inconsistent bullpen.  The Phillies finished tied for last in the majors in that category this year. 

Even if the Phillies had been able to hold onto 10 of those 13 games, we may be talking about a different season where they ended up finishing 91-71 and making the playoffs.  The Phillies hope to have plugged that hole with Mike Adams, who has been one of the most consistent bullpen arms since 2007.

The Phillies also suffered from a lack of offense this year, with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard having missed substantial time due to injuries.  The Phillies did not have both of these players back until July, and Howard was never back to 100 percent during any point of the season.  The Phillies traded away two major offensive players this July, which allowed for the young players to step up and prove themselves.  The Phillies finished the season 36-24, which was the best in baseball.

The Phillies finished strong this year and have filled some glaring holes this offseason, particularly at third base and in the bullpen.  If the Phillies can hold onto more of their late leads and get more production out of third base and the now healthy Utley and Howard, they should have no reason to trade the players the team is built around. 

Michael Young will bring a great deal to the team, both as a leader and as a producer.  Young drove in more runs than anybody on the Phillies in 2012, except Carlos Ruiz and Jimmy Rollins.  2012 was an off year for Young, but even if he brings the same production that he did in 2012 or returns to the 106 RBI 2011 season he had, the Phillies stand in a much better position.

The Phillies do not need to trade their starting rotation pieces.  The Phillies do not have the players who are ready to step up and fill the starting pitching rotation.  The Phillies pitchers suffered a bit of a hiccup this year due to injuries and increased pressure.  The team was built around the strength of its rotation, and the rotation is still and will remain the strength of the team.  

The Phillies need their players return to their normal form, which they can do.  The Phillies need to be in a position where Jimmy Rollins does not have to be the leader in home runs and RBIs.  The pitchers need to focus on returning to their normal ability, and the core players need to focus on remaining injury free and producing runs. 

The pitchers had a lot of weight on their shoulders in 2012 while they were missing the major pieces of Utley and Howard and should be able to return to their 2011 form with the glaring holes now filled and the injuries now healed.

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Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks Possible Trade Partners

It was reported Saturday that the Arizona Diamondbacks had agreed to terms with free-agent outfielder Cody Ross.  This signing narrows an already thin free-agent outfielder market.

Throughout the offseason, D-back outfielders Justin Upton and Jason Kubel have been discussed as possible trade bait. With the signing of Ross, the Diamonbacks now have an excess of outfielders, which reopens that possibility.

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, it looks more likely that Kubel will be traded.  However, Upton’s name has been mentioned in several trade possibilities.

Kubel would not be a fit for the Philadelphia Phillies, as he is a left-handed bat and primarily a left fielder.  It is assumed that Darin Ruf will be taking most of the playing time in left field for the Phillies.

Upton, on the other hand, would be a great fit.  He is a right-handed right fielder with the ability to hit for power.  He is an excellent defender with a great deal of speed.  He is also only 25 years old. His addition would make the aging Phillies younger.

The biggest question is what the D-backs would be looking for in return.  Upton is a proven All-Star-caliber player, and the Phillies have traded away most of their most attractive trade targets already this offseason.

A few of the players the Phillies could include in a trade are Domonic Brown, Tyler Cloyd and Michael Schwimer.  The Phillies could also include a prospect package in the deal, which would likely include catcher Sebastian Valle. 

The Phillies have not been actively looking to trade any of their other prospects, but they may see the possibility of acquiring Upton as a proper time to make such a deal.

Brown has been an extremely inconsistent player in his three stints in the majors.  He does not carry the trade value that he once did, which means he alone would not be enough to get Upton. 

For a long time, the Phillies refused to include Brown in any deal, but they been frustrated with his performance.  If the Phillies were able to acquire Upton in a deal that included Brown, it would certainly be worth doing.

In 2012, Upton hit .280 with 17 home runs and 67 RBI.  He also had 63 walks and 18 stolen bases.  The Phillies park is much more hitter-riendly than Chase Field in Arizona.  Upton would also be under team control through the 2015 season and would be making just over $9 million this season.

The price for the Phillies to acquire Upton would probably be high, but the rewards would be worth the price.  It just depends on whether the D-backs would like what the Phillies have to offer.

If they like acquiring Brown as a fourth or fifth outfielder, along with a bullpen arm (Schwimer) and a catching prospect (Valle), the Phillies would have themselves a good deal.

The D-backs have sought on several occasions to deal Upton, and it would behoove the Phillies to acquire him at this time.  It would help the D-backs remove a player they have been looking to deal, while also filling a hole in the Phillies’ lineup that has been a cause of great concern.

The Phillies should make this deal. Upton could be the answer the Phillies have been seeking in right field, ever since it was vacated by Jayson Werth.

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Philadelphia Phillies: ‘Ruffing’ It in Left Field?

The Philadelphia Phillies have several holes that they needed to fill in the 2012 offseason. This is partially due to the subpar performance of the 2012 where they decided to trade away two outfielders and a starting pitcher. Those players are Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, and Joe Blanton, respectively.

Since the offseason has started, Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has sought to fill those holes along with the hole at the back end of the inconsistent bullpen.

So far, Amaro has filled three of those holes: first by trading for Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins to play centerfield and then for Michael Young from the Texas Rangers to third base, as that was a position of inconsistent performance in 2012 as well and one that saw eight different players cover during throughout the year. Last week, Amaro also filled the bullpen hole by signing free agent Mike Adams.

Amaro has been looking for a corner outfielder that can provide consistent offense and play strong defense. The free agent market has been unflattering, except Josh Hamilton who has already signed with the Los Angeles Angels. The price of any outfielder seems higher than Amaro wants to pay and probably higher than those players would receive if there were better talent on the market.

With the free agent market drying up and trade agents seemingly shutting down, Amaro has looked at internal options for the outfield.

Three options that he has are the frustratingly inconsistent Domonic Brown, who has yet to live up to the potential stamped on him when he was regarded as a top prospect, John Mayberry Jr. who has also been inconsistent, but shown flashes of how well he can play given an everyday starter job (see more in a forthcoming story) and Darin Ruf, who seemed to come out of nowhere after blowing up in AA Reading this past season.

The general consensus is that Ruf will have a fair shot at earning an everyday or platoon spot on the Phillies roster in left field. People have compared him to Pat Burrell in his prime.  The 26-year-old has a lot of pop from the right side of the plate, which was one major vacancy in the Phillies roster all of last year with the exception of Carlos Ruiz. Now, Ruf has an extremely limited amount of major league experience, but all signs point to the fact that he can contribute on a daily basis.

No matter where he played in 2012, all he did was drive in runs.  In AA Reading he hit 38 home runs and drove in 104 runs.  When he finally got a chance to play in nine Phillies games last year, he managed to hit three home runs and drive in 10 runs.  He then played in the Venezuelan Winter League where he broke the record for home runs with 10 and drove in 27 runs. Through all the leagues he played in, he has averaged at least one hit per game.

Overall, in the minors this year, across 489 at bats, Ruf hit for .317 average, with a .620 slugging percentage, and a 1.028 OPS.  In those at bats, he hit 38 home runs, 32 doubles, and had 104 RBIs.  He also had a 120:65 strikeout to walk ratio.  When he made his debut in the majors, he continued with his natural slugging ability by hitting for a .333 average, with 3 home runs, 2 doubles and 10 RBIs across 33 at bats.  Then in Winter League he hit for an average of .258 with 10 home runs, 27 RBIs, and 8 doubles across 120 at bats in 33 games.

He is also a substantial defender at left field or first base.  He is not going to be the best defender in the game, but he brings an above average ability to play his zone and brings a great deal to the plate overall.  So, regardless of the fact that he is a first baseman and not a true outfielder, would the Phillies be risking it by “Ruffing it in left field,” or would he be the answer for power that was missing from the right side of the plate and left field in all of 2012?

He is an average defender, but he has been hitting the ball like an all-star all season. If he can perform like he has shown he can, the Phillies are much better with him in left field than any option they would find on the market. For example, he drove in the last eight runs against the Nationals that the Phillies had in 2012 across four games. Ruf has shown enough to be the Phillies left fielder for 2013.

The question for left field has been answered. The only question should be is what will be done in right field.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Ben Francisco Is the Answer to Replacing Jayson Werth

Former Philadelphia Phillie Jayson Werth signed with his former division rival Washington Nationals for $126 MM over seven years, which allowed Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. to offer a contract to the much-coveted Cliff Lee.

In a deal that shocked baseball where Lee left millions of dollars on the table, he decided to return to a team where he enjoyed the city, the team and the fans.

Lee decided that his comfort and the chance for history and a championship was more important than the money the Yankees offered him.

As a Phillies fan, I am extremely excited to have Lee back on the team, especially since I spent 12 months criticizing Amaro for getting rid of Lee to begin with. Werth, unlike Lee, decided that he would rather have the money than an immediate chance to become a world champion yet again.

With Werth missing from the roster, there has been a great deal of discussion as to who will replace him. Werth was the second best hitter on the Phillies who ranked towards the top in home runs and RBI. He was also a smart baserunner and a great defensive player.

Werth was certainly a productive player and helped the Phillies earn their four consecutive NL East championships and the 2008 World Series victory. Werth was a key asset to these accomplishments, but he did not solely earn these accomplishments, as baseball is, after all, a team sport.

Werth will be 39 years old at the end of his contract. He may still be a productive player, but it is unlikely that he will be as productive in the latter years of the contract as he has been in the past few years, especially if he is injured again or as he becomes slower with age.

With Werth gone, however, who will be his replacement in right field and as a right-handed hitter? Discussions have surfaced about a platoon in right field consisting of Ben Francisco and Ross Gload or Domonic Brown. However, I think that splitting right field with either Gload or Brown leaves much to be desired since they both are left-handed hitters, and Brown also had very disappointing numbers at the plate in the winter league.

Why not just use Ben Francisco as the starter? He may not have as much power as Jayson Werth, but he can produce offensive numbers that are very comparable to what Werth did in 2010. Francisco was largely used as a pinch hitter and not a starter. If he had chances to start every day, he could find a rhythm and become more productive than an off-the-bench player.

Comparing Francisco’s stats to Werth’s stats for 2010, we can see there is not a big difference in the ratio of their stats between these two players.

In 554 at-bats for 2010, Werth batted for an average of .296 with 27 home runs and 85 RBI. Werth’s on-base percentage was .388 with a slugging average of .532. Werth did lead the league in doubles with 46 and had 13 stolen bases, but he had 147 strikeouts. Doing the math, that means that almost 27 percent of the time that Werth was batting, he struck out.

Francisco had 179 at-bats in 2010, which is just shy of a third of the at-bats that Werth had. During those 179 at-bats, Francisco batted .268 with six home runs and 28 RBI. Francisco had an on-base percentage of .327 with a slugging average of .441, which is not much less than Werth’s relative numbers. He also had 13 doubles and eight stolen bases.

If we were to adjust Francisco’s numbers to make it comparative to having played a full season, his numbers would be equivalent to 18 home runs, 84 RBI, 39 doubles and 24 stolen bases, assuming that Francisco’s numbers were directly proportionate through the season.

	At-bats	Avg.	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG%	SO
Werth	554	.296	27	85	.388	.532	147
Francisco	179	.268	6	28	.327	.441	35
Francisco (Adjusted to assume full-season stats)	554	.268	19	87	.327	.441	108

 

If Francisco’s adjusted numbers proved to be his true production over the whole season, he would be a perfect replacement for Werth.

Francisco is a better player than he often gets credit for. He has not played full-time since before he came to the Phillies with Cliff Lee the first time Lee became a Phillie. Francisco batted one-third of the number of times that Werth did and produced exactly one-third of the RBI. That means that over the course of a full season, both of these players will have the same run-producing ability.

The one thing to mention about Francisco is that his home-run-producing ability is less than Werth’s, but as already mentioned, his RBI-producing ability is exactly the same. How can there be this paradox in numbers? The answer to that question is that Werth struck out about 27 percent of the time he batted, whereas Francisco only struck out 19 percent of the time he batted. Therefore, it is clear that Francisco strikes out eight percent less frequently than Werth.

Another answer to this question is that Werth bats for a much lower average when runners are in scoring position than Francisco does. Werth’s batting average with runners in scoring position was only .186, whereas Francisco’s average with runners in scoring position was .306. It can be seen here that Francisco is much better at producing runs when runners are on base than Werth is.

Francisco is a favorite to win Werth’s spot this spring because he will have a chance to shine and prove that he is better than many people expect him to be. Many people beyond myself claim that he is underestimated, including Werth himself and Brad Lidge.

Werth in an interview spoke of Francisco, saying, “I think Ben Francisco is a better player than people realize.” Werth does believe that the Phillies should have Francisco be the man that fills the hole he left. Charlie Manuel also claimed that Francisco is a primary candidate and said, “I think it’s time we give Ben a chance.”

Lidge also spoke of Francisco, claiming that he thinks Francisco is the Phillies’ best option to fill in for the loss of Werth. He said, “In my opinion, if Ben Francisco plays the way I think he can, if he delivers like a lot of guys on our team think he can, the blow of losing Jayson won’t be as big as it appears on paper.

“We’ll need Domonic Brown at some point and Ross Gload could be an everyday player. But to me, Ben is the key. He’s a right-handed hitter with 20-plus home run potential and he can play good D. You look at last year and guys like Ryan [Howard] and Chase [Utley] and Jimmy [Rollins] were hurt. I think we’ll be healthier and that will make up a lot for the loss of Jayson.”

Francisco should be the favorite to earn the starting right field spot this year. He can replace the defense that Werth once added to right field, and Francisco can also make up for Werth’s run-producing ability in the fifth spot in the lineup. Francisco is the answer to how the Phillies can replace Werth in all ways.

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Jimmy Rollins or Shane Victorino: Who Leads Off for the 2011 Phillies?

The 2010 season was certainly a down season for Jimmy Rollins.  This was almost predominately due to the fact Rollins suffered an injury plagued season that kept him on the bench for nearly half the season.  Even when he was not on the disabled list, he was not playing at his peak performance, which caused him to have his career low batting average of .243.

Rollins has career numbers showing a batting average of .272, with a .328 on base percentage and a .435 slugging percentage.  However, his 2010 numbers were .243, .320, and .374, respectively.

Rollins has been the leadoff hitter for the Phillies for basically the past decade but seemed to fade away from that role last year.  When he was injured, he obviously was not leading off, but even when he came back to playing full time, he was not a lock to leadoff the lineup.

The Phillies were still able to have the best regular season in 2010, having a record of 97-65.  It had often be said the Phillies win games when Rollins is hitting, and I do not want to take anything away from that or Rollins, but they had to and were able to win many games without the help of Rollins on the field or in the lineup.

Shane Victorino was able to fill the role as the leadoff hitter for a large portion of the 2010 season and was the best one at doing so last year.  Victorino for the 2010 season as a whole batted for an average of .259 with an on-base percentage of .327 and a slugging percentage of .429, but at leadoff, those numbers were .276, .345, and .466, respectively.

Now, Victorino’s numbers at leadoff were not much more impressive than his overall numbers, but his numbers at leadoff were easily the best of the rest of the team at leadoff. 

Of course, the real contest for leadoff is only between Rollins and Victorino, although for the 2010 season, Rollins was third best in the spot, trailing Placido Polanco as well as Victorino.

Rollins in 2010 batted for an average of .241 with an on-base percentage of .322 and a slugging percentage of .378 at leadoff.  Overall for the 2010 season, Rollins batted best at the fifth spot in the lineup, where he hit for an average of .400 with an on-base percentage of .417 and a slugging percentage of .700.

Now that happened to be with only 10 at-bats, but if that trend were to continue, Rollins batting fifth would be a good strategy.  He did bat at the sixth spot 14 times in 2010 for an average of .357 with an on-base percentage of .400 and a slugging percentage of .429, so perhaps it is best that Rollins no longer bats leadoff and finds himself in the middle of the lineup.

during an interview this week, Rollins spoke of this issue claiming he would bat fifth if he wanted to but wants to be the leadoff hitter and that’s where he feels he belongs.

He said, “I’m a leadoff hitter.  In the five-hole, I can’t be all that I am.  I can’t get out there and steal bases and run wild like I want to… I’m not going to have the impact on the team that I want to in the five-hole.”

His numbers at leadoff have steadily declined since his 2007 MVP season, but he could very well return to that form this coming season.  Rollins has put himself through new training to help himself avoid injury for this season and has the desire to be the leadoff hitter. 

If he can return to his former leadoff ability, he will likely be the man to fill that hole in the lineup, especially since Charlie Manuel is backing him for that position.

Perhaps Victorino will be the best man for the five-hole, as he batted for an average of .313 with an on-base percentage of .353 and a slugging percentage of .438 in the 2010. The fifth spot was the best spot that Victorino batted in 2010, so he may be the best option to bat there, as it is likely that Rollins will win the leadoff race.

It should be safe to assume Rollins will be leading off for this season, but if he shows signs of slipping, Victorino will be there to pick up the slack.  Victorino can easily be a great leadoff hitter, but for 2010, the Phillies will have the rejuvenated Rollins leading off their lineup.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Prospects Not Named Domonic Brown Who Could See MLB

With spring training having begun, some of the prospects will be trying to earn their spot on the starting lineup, or at least their spot in the 25-man roster.

Yesterday we saw the Cole Hamels is due to start the spring training game against the Yankees in Tampa, FL, and Vance Worley is to be the long reliever for that game. With the rotation and bullpen stocked the way that it is, how likely is it that Worley will see major league play time during the regular season?

Besides Dominic Brown, how likely is it that any of these young prospects will see major league playing time in the 2011 season?

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Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies: What to Expect for the 2011 Season

For the first time in the past few offseasons, the closing pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, Brad Lidge, is ending his season at 100 percent health, which has allowed him to have an extremely rigorous offseason of training.

Lidge has not had productive offseasons for the past few years due to an injury to his throwing elbow. The 2010-2011 offseason is different for Lidge.

Lidge has often been the target of criticism ever since he failed to match the numbers he had in 2008, where he had 41 saves in 41 opportunities, including the offseason. To be honest, after the first half of the season that Lidge had in 2010, it is somewhat justified.

Preceding the 2010 All-Star break, Lidge had a 4.60 ERA with only six saves in nine opportunities. In the 15.2 innings pitched before the break, he allowed 15 hits, eight earned runs and three home runs.

However, after the All-Star break, Lidge’s numbers shot up drastically. In 30 innings pitched following the break, Lidge had 21 saves out of 23 save opportunities. During that course of time, he only allowed seven earned runs and two home runs, both of which were one less than those respective stats for the first half of the season, where he pitched half the number of innings. This allowed Lidge’s ERA for the second half of the season to be as good as 2.10.

It should also be noted that the batting average against Lidge for the first half of the season was .250, whereas it was .192 for the second half of the season. After the conclusion of July through the postseason, Lidge had 19 saves out of 20 opportunities.

Overall for 2010, Lidge had an ERA of 2.96 with 27 saves, 52 strikeouts, 24 walks and a WHIP of 1.23. Obviously, the numbers from the first half of the season drove his overall numbers up.

Lidge, and the Phillies in general, hope that Lidge can replicate the numbers he had for the second half of the 2010 season for the entirety of the 2011 season. His chances of starting strong in 2011 are much greater than they have been in doing so because he is not nursing an injury through the offseason.

Lidge has been training hard this offseason and will be starting spring training (on Monday) in a better situation than he has in the previous few seasons.

The chances he has to produce like he did after the 2010 All-Star break are greater because of his training this offseason being in place of the rehabilitation that he has gone through in the previous years. Lidge will be working hard to perfect his training and performance during spring training, and his chances at perfection have not been this good in quite some time.

Lidge has been throwing regularly and at the rate that he needs to pitch at to be effective. Lidge has not only been healthy, he has also been able to maintain his top-notch ability through the offseason thus far. He has made the proper moves to make sure that he has not lost the effectiveness he had for the second half of last season. This is all paired with his hunger to be the world champion again.

Expect Lidge to be hungry, healthy and performing at the ability level that he performed at from August through October in 2010. With Lidge’s offseason health being 100 percent, and with his participating in a great offseason training program, expect him to improve upon his 2010 season’s numbers and have a season closer to his 2008 season, where he had an ERA of 1.95 with 41 saves.

Lidge will greatly improve upon his 2010 season based on his great offseason health and training, in addition to having the honor of pitching behind Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, plus the quality setup relief of Ryan Madson.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Batting Order Projection and Where Each Player Fits Best

With pitchers and catchers reporting Monday and the full team beginning spring training shortly after, the only major change for the Philadelphia Phillies among the starting position players will be the absence of Jayson Werth. 

There has been a lot of debate over who will replace Werth in the outfield and in the lineup.  There has been talk about platooning right field with either Ben Francisco and Dominic Brown or Francisco and Ross Gload.

Looking at the depth chart provided by ESPN.com, Brown is the first player listed for right field. 

Personally, Francisco is my favorite for winning the full-time starting position, as I believe that he can replace the run production of Werth completely, just doing so with less home runs. 

Francisco can produce runs because he can drive in as many RBI, since he is a better contact hitter than Werth.  The numbers of Francisco and Werth are directly proportionate to one another once playing time of each respective player is accounted for. 

The Phillies website differs from ESPN, because it has Francisco listed first for right field and Brown listed third, which strengthened my favor towards Francisco even further.

Another conversation that has hit the surface regarded what the batting order will be for the team this year. 

Based on split statistics, I believe that the best batting order for the Phillies will be, in order, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Ben Francisco or Dominic Brown (depending on which of the two are playing that day), Carlos Ruiz, and Placido Polanco. 

This is based off of each of these players’ batting history at different spots in the order.  If you do not feel comfortable having slots two, three and four being left-handed batters, you could switch Polanco and Utley, but I feel much more comfortable with Polanco being at the end of the lineup than I do with Utley being there.

Of the nine different Phillies that I analyzed for this, I ranked them for each spot in the order with regards to how each player batted in that spot.  Not everyone batted in each spot in the order, so not each player will be ranked in every spot.

Victorino was easily the best hitter in the leadoff spot, followed by Polanco then Rollins. 

Victorino batted .276 at leadoff, whereas Polanco batted .273 and Rollins .241.  The difference between Victorino and Polanco is the on-base percentage, which was .345 for Victorino and .304 for Polanco at leadoff. 

Leadoff was Victorino’s second-best batting position, the fifth spot being his best.  In the fifth spot he batted for .313 with an on-base percentage of .353.  However, Victorino should leadoff, not only because he was the best, but because although his batting average was better fifth, his on-base percentage was only less than one percent better in that spot.

The second spot in the batting order was ranked, in order, Polanco, Utley, Victorino, and Ibanez. 

Although there are four names mentioned here, the competition is really only between Polanco and Utley.  Polanco batted for .303 with on-base percentage of .346, whereas Utley batted for an average of .257 with an on-base percentage of .350.  So, although Utley batted for a worse average than Polanco, his on-base percentage was a little better. 

Part of the reason that Utley should be batting second is because of the improvements offensively of the person that should be batting third, which is actually Utley’s best place in the order.

For the third spot in the order, Utley batted for an average of .282 with an on-base percentage of .395, but his offensive performance in the second spot is very comparable to his performance in the third spot. 

The overall ranking for the third spot in the batting order is Ibanez, Polanco, Utley and Rollins, but Rollins is not really in contention with this spot. 

Ibanez is an easy favorite for the third spot in the batting order.  His numbers there were a batting average of .350 and an on-base percentage of .430.  Ibanez is the best fit for batting third, because his batting average improved by .080 and his on-base percentage by .088 from where he usually batted.  If Ibanez can maintain a .430 on-base percentage at third, he is the best option to hit there.

Ibanez is technically the best fit for batting fourth when it comes to average and on-base percentage, but I do not think that there is any chance that Howard will bat anywhere else in the lineup.  Howard also has much more power than Ibanez, so Howard will be batting fourth, and everyone else will fit around him.

The fifth spot in the batting order is easily favored by Rollins. 

The other contenders for that spot are Victorino and Francisco.  As previously mentioned, Victorino’s best spot in the lineup was fifth, but Rollins is still easily the favorite for that spot.  Rollins batted for an average of .400 with an on-base percentage of .417 and a slugging average of .700 while batting fifth, which are very impressive numbers.  Rollins would easily be best fit to follow Howard in the batting order.

Rollins was also the best batter for the sixth spot in the lineup, but he is easily favored to bat fifth in the batting order. 

That allows the Phillies to place Francisco in the sixth spot in the lineup.  Francisco was second best in the sixth spot, batting with an average of .306 and an on-base percentage of .370. 

Sixth is also where Brown batted best as well, with an average of .256 and an on-base percentage of .273.  Whichever of these two players wins—the favorite according to these numbers is Francisco—will be best fit to bat sixth in the lineup.  Brown was actually ranked fifth for the sixth spot, but the two players between Francisco and Brown are easy fits in other spots in the lineup.

With the seventh spot in the batting order, there really is no competition.  Ruiz is easily the favorite to bat seventh. 

Ruiz usually batted eighth, where his numbers were a batting average of .263 with an on-base percentage of .398 and a slugging average of .351.  When Ruiz batted seventh in the lineup, he batted for an average of .337 with an on-base percentage of .407 and a slugging average of .524.  His numbers are much better, except for the small improvement with on-base percentage, at the seventh spot, making him an easy favorite to bat there.

Another way that the batting order could be arranged, from first to last, is Polanco Utley, Ibanez, Howard, Victorino, Rollins, Ruiz, and Francisco or Brown, although I am not that comfortable having a potentially big run producer like Francisco or Brown at the bottom of the order. 

I would feel much more comfortable with having a contact hitter with minimal power at the bottom of the lineup.  It is a given that Francisco or Brown have much more power than Polanco, which is why Polanco is the best fit at the bottom of the order, keeping the order as Victorino, Utley, Ibanez, Howard, Rollins, Francisco or Brown, Ruiz and Polanco.

That is my projection for the 2011 batting order. 

The players I placed in the first, third, fifth and seventh spots in the batting order were the players who batted the best in those spots in the batting order in 2010. 

The players that I placed in the second, fourth and sixth spots in the batting order were those who finished second best in those spots in the rotation in 2010, and the ones who finished best in those respective spots were best fits in one of the other spots in the lineup. 

The only legitimate way that I could see the lineup being better would be to have the pitcher bat eighth and have Polanco bat ninth to have him start the wrap-around of the lineup.

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