Philadelphia Phillies: Winter Meetings Review, According to Total Player Rating

The Phillies had their share of issues even before the offseason officially began. Ryan Howard went down with a torn Achilles on the last day of the NLDS. He will likely miss the entire 2012 season to recuperate. So, the Phillies had an immediate hole to fill there. Then, they had Jimmy Rollins’ impending free agency to deal with.

Before the meetings, the Phillies signed Jim Thome and acquired Ty Wigginton to cover that hole. Someone like Michael Cuddyer makes sense for them, but it will difficult to pay for him and Jimmy Rollins at the same time.

 

Infield

The Jim Thome acquisition is still a head scratcher. He hasn’t even played full time as a DH the past few seasons, much less played in the field. He hasn’t played any first base since the last time he was in Philadelphia. That was two managers and two general managers ago. Some depth charts have him penciled in at first. That seems patently ridiculous, but what is the alternative?

Chase Utley and Placido Polanco seem entrenched in their spots, and they are two of the best fielders at their position in baseball. Ruben Amaro, Jr. is playing a waiting game on Rollins to get him to come down on his demands. In particular, Rollins wants a three or four year deal. Considering the decline he has had in recent seasons, that would not be a smart venture. Luckily, the waiting seems to be working.

Thome will not be the regular first baseman. The smart money would be on Wigginton or John Mayberry, Jr. for the time being. After spending a ton of money on Jonathan Papelbon and the money they will spend on Rollins, it seems unlikely that there will be enough to attract a regular first baseman.

 

Outfield

The Phillies surrendered a ton to get Hunter Pence from the Astros last season, but he may have well been worth it. He is a crowd favorite there, and for good reason. He is one of those 100 percent effort guys that always seems to have a smile on his face. Pence isn’t a star, but on this team, he doesn’t have to be. All he needs is continue to hit .280 and 20-plus home runs and play good right field defense.

Shane Victorino might be one of my favorite players in all of baseball. He was a Rule V pick years ago by the Phillies, and he has worked himself into one of the best centerfielders in baseball. You’ll look at his hitting numbers and defense and wonder what all the fuss is about. He is the perfect example of the cumulative effect of solid performance. He is above average or good at every facet of the game. Add it all up, and you get a very good player.

Left field is a hole after the Phillies let Raul Ibanez go. Mayberry could go there or Domonic Brown could fit in there. Ibanez was a defensive liability, and his hitting also slipped last season. It is likely that they will somehow get better production overall from that spot no matter who goes out there.

 

Starting Rotation

In this “what have you done for me lately” society, it will be fashionable to call the Angels top three of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and C.J. Wilson the top three-man starting group in baseball. That’s a nice group, but the combination of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels is better. Really, it isn’t even particularly close.

It would have been a foursome, but the departed Roy Oswalt struggled through with his back. Vance Worley took over midseason and put up the numbers Oswalt normally would have. It won’t last. Worley is similar to J.A. Happ (now with the Astros) in that his rookie numbers are a mirage. For a fourth or fifth starter, he will do.

The Phillies are hoping that either Joe Blanton or Kyle Kendrick step up to solidify the fifth starter’s slot. The Phillies would like Blanton to be that guy because Kendrick has shown the ability to pitch in relief. Having Kendrick in the bullpen makes it that much deeper, and Blanton also makes a pretty penny. It’s high time he earns it.

 

Bullpen

The Phillies shocked everyone when they traded up at the closer’s spot. There were false rumors out there that they had agreed to bring Ryan Madson back, but they turned those on their ear when they agreed with Papelbon. According to TPR, Papelbon was the second best closer in baseball last season. Furthermore, he is used to pressure-packed pitching coming from Boston.

Antonio Bastardo is the only other pitcher in the bullpen that was significantly above average. This is the main reason why having Kendrick in the bullpen is so important. He was also above average. Mike Sturtes was exactly average, so they have a few solid relievers. If Jose Contreras can come back healthy they will be okay in the pen. Yet, this might be an area that Amaro Jr. addresses before they break for spring training.

 

Rest of the Offseason

The Phillies have a few questions they need to answer, but many of the answers are already in house. They will need to decide on a first baseman and left fielder. They also must answer the Jimmy Rollins question fairly soon. If he returns, they should easily hold off the Marlins for another division title. Once they get to the playoffs, it is anyone’s ball game, as Phillies fans learned this October.

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Philadelphia Phillies and Ruben Amaro Jr. in the Final Analysis

When rating a team’s analysis score, we need to keep two key things in mind. First, the object of baseball is to win games. As “Peter Brand” said in Moneyball, “Instead of buying players, you should be looking to buy wins.” Of course, the second thing to keep in mind is how economically one can buy wins. With the Philadelphia Phillies, that is a bit of pickle.

Ruben Amaro Jr. knew going into the season he would likely make the playoffs as either the division winner or the wild card. When he went into the July deadline, he knew it as well. Yet, since 2008, they made the playoffs and came up short. They did the same in the seasons before 2008. This is a team that wants the whole thing, and there is no telling how much is too much in that situation.

Key Statistics

Team Payroll: 173.0 million (2nd)

Lineup: 10.0

Rotation: 4.4

Bullpen: 14.8

Composite Ranking: 9.8

Analysis Score: -7.8

 

Lineup

For that grand sum of money, this team still has a few holes to fill. Hunter Pence filled one of them at the deadline. They still have another one in left field where Raul Ibanez has lost both bat-speed and a step in the field. He could afford to lose neither. Yet, with this pitching staff, they don’t have to be the Big Red Machine. They just have to be good and good they are.

There are some storm clouds on the horizon. Jimmy Rollins contract is coming up. Chase Utley will have to be paid someday, and the same is true of Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. Raul Ibanez will clear off the books, but that won’t be nearly enough to cover all of the new money that will have to go out.

Rotation

No, they didn’t have four starters that won 20 games like the 1970 Baltimore Orioles. However, I would argue they have a better foursome than that group and almost any other in history. Both Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay could easily be the Cy Young winner this year, and both of them deserve to be the game one playoff starter.

Cole Hamels has come back from a couple of marginal seasons to be the third starter everyone thought he could be. Having Roy Oswalt for a fourth starter almost seems embarrassing. He has battled back trouble this year, but has been his old self when healthy. Throw in the emergence of Vance Worley, and it is almost enough to make you blush. Listening to Phillies fans argue over who the four-man playoff rotation should be is enough to make most fans dry heave.

Bullpen

Brad Lidge is another contract that is thankfully expiring this season. Ryan Madson has been brilliant as the closer, but this bullpen has major depth issues. Thankfully, the strength of the rotation has kept the Phillies from having to explore that depth. The blueprint to beating the Phillies in the postseason will involve getting those starters out before the end of the seventh inning.

Analysis Score: -7.8 (28th)

Final Analysis

Keep in mind that Ruben Amaro Jr. is trying to buy a championship, so he felt he had to have Cliff Lee and Hunter Pence. Take away a couple of dead contracts like Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge, and suddenly he looks a little better. In terms of reality, who knows how long they can sustain this kind of payroll. If ownership is comfortable doing that, they could easily let those two players go and spend the savings making sure the core remains intact.

This is where we move away from pure analysis and more into economic analysis. How much is another World Series championship worth? How much are two World Series championships worth? The Phillies have sold out every game for several years. Television and radio rights are bound to be as good as they can be. Only ownership knows what it can spend and how much more they think they can take in.

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