2010 MLB Playoff Predictions: Why the Philadelphia Phillies Will Beat the Reds

As the Atlanta Braves fought for the right to play into the second phase of the season on Sunday, the Philadelphia Phillies started Cole Hamels against Atlanta’s Tim Hudson.

And then after Hamels came Roy Oswalt.

And then after Oswalt came …

And so it was for the Phillies on the final day of the regular season, their National League East title wrapped up long ago.

No Philadelphia pitcher worked longer than Hamels’ two innings, with manager Charlie Manuel using Game 162 as a “staff” day to get eight different pitchers some work.

For Atlanta, this game was all about survival.

The Braves knew their only hope to give manager Bobby Cox one more postseason before he rides off into retirement was to outlast the San Diego Padres and, potentially, the San Francisco Giants for the Wild Card.

But the Braves beat the Phillies 8-7 behind a four-out save from Billy Wagner, and the Giants beat the Padres out west to claim the division and give Atlanta the Wild Card.

There would be no Game 163, or Game 164 for that matter, something that’s never happened in history but would have happened had the Padres won.

As all the little guys sweated it out, the Goliath in Philly gave Chase Utley and Ryan Howard three at-bats apiece and then pulled them, winning not necessary.

The day was more about preparation and, when needed, rest to get ready for this week’s showdown with the Cincinnati Reds in the NLDS.

In fact, it’s felt that way with these Phillies for a while now. Not only do the Phillies look like a tough team to beat, they also look like the early favorite to represent the National League in the World Series for a third consecutive year.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at how the Phillies just may be able to win the NL pennant, beginning with their matchup against the Reds.

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2010 MLB Playoffs: Six Phillies Who Will Determine World Series

With the Atlanta Braves coming into Philadelphia this week for a three-game series, the Phillies couldn’t have it set up any better.

On Monday evening the Phillies had a three-game lead over the Braves in the National League East and still had three games at Atlanta remaining on the schedule.

If Philadelphia wanted to lock up the N.L. East crown, this series would go a long way towards popping the champagne.

And that’s precisely why manager Charlie Manuel had his best three guys ready to take the mound.

Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt were all scheduled to face the Braves.

One quick sweep later and the Phillies can breathe easy with a six-game lead. Meanwhile, the Braves cling to a half-game lead over the San Francisco Giants in the Wild Card race.

A month ago Atlanta looked like they were in control of the division. A Hollywood ending was unfolding: a division title and playoff run in Bobby Cox’s final season as the manager of the Braves.

Except too many people discounted the ability and experience of the Phillies, if that’s even possible to do with a team that has represented the N.L. in the last two World Series, winning one of them.

Fast-forward and the Phillies have run off 10 straight wins and sit days away from clinching a playoff berth.

With Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt all doing their part to anchor a rotation that has quickly become the best in baseball, the Phillies have become favorite picks to reach the World Series again this fall and perhaps win their second title in three years.

As a preview to October and a hat tip to those predicting the Phillies will win it all, we look at six of the most important Phillies who will determine whether or not the city is crowned champions in 2010.

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Philadelphia Phillies Stalking Another World Series Berth

When Chase Utley slid into second base at Cincinnati on June 28 and thrashed his right thumb in the process, you could hear the big groan let out of Philly.

With Shane Victorino not being the typical menace to opposing pitchers that he usually is,  Jayson Werth being tossed around in weekly trade rumors, and Brad Lidge sauntering in from the bullpen to close games and looking less and less like his old dominating self, it just didn’t look good for the Phillies.

Maybe this just wasn’t going to be a great year. It happens. After back-to-back World Series appearances and one title to brag about, maybe the dealer just got tired of hooking the Phillies up with ace, king suited. You need some luck to win.

The Phillies played .500 ball in June, Utley went down, and within three-and-a-half weeks they trailed the Braves by seven games.

Atlanta had been rejuvenated by Jason Heyward’s emergence—although he closed out the first half on the DL, too—and had enjoyed a strong year from Troy Glaus. Tim Hudson teamed up with Tommy Hanson to anchor the rotation, and Billy Wagner brought some stability to the bullpen.

The New York Mets were hanging around. The Florida Marlins had some guy named Josh Johnson starting the All-Star Game for the National League. Word is, he is pretty good.

So that seemed to be it for the 2010 Phillies, and who could complain that much if they caught a little bad luck this year?

But then Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. fixed up a package of players that got Roy Oswalt from the Houston Astros. No, getting Oswalt couldn’t compare to dealing for Cliff Lee the year before, but it was quite a move. Oswalt is a difference maker.

Philadelphia managed to hang on and play two games better than .500 in July, enjoying a little burst of energy when top prospect Dominic Brown came up to make his debut in place for Victorino. Brown had a couple hits on his first night in the big leagues, and it was a lift that the Phillies needed.

And now here we are, almost halfway through August, and the Phillies sit 2.5 games behind the Braves and continue to put the pressure on a young Atlanta team that is now being tested like the Phillies have been all season.

After dealing with his own thumb issues earlier on in the summer, Heyward had to be scratched prior to a game on Tuesday night because of a sore knee. He said he hurt it in Monday’s game. Welcome to the long grind of a big league season, rookie.

We forget that he’s a young man who would be entering his senior year of college this fall if he decided to go to school. He’s getting what many old timers would call experience.

Chipper Jones also went down in a heap Tuesday evening, injuring his knee trying to make a play in the field. Some within the Braves organization don’t think it’s a day-to-day thing.

“Chip’s going to be out a while probably,” Braves manager Bobby Cox said. “Chip doesn’t think it’s bad, but that’s him. I don’t know.”

If Heyward continued to stay healthy and produce, Matt Diaz hit better than .240, and Troy Glaus duplicated his first half where he hit 14 home runs, maybe there would be enough offense to piece around Brian McCann and keep the ship afloat.

But Glaus went 39 games without going deep until he belted a homer Tuesday night. There just simply hasn’t been a lot of help, and the onus to keep the Phillies fighting for air has fallen on an unproven pitching staff, save for Hudson and Wagner.

Like a good veteran team would, it appears that the Phillies are beginning to smell blood in the water. The New York Mets fooled us for a little while and then became the Mets again, and the Florida Marlins traded Jorge Cantu to the Texas Rangers and look comfortable with accepting another mediocre year.

That leaves only two teams at the top of the National League East, and the Phillies are trying to prove that they have guile to go with ability.

On Wednesday evening, when word came that Utley has been cleared to begin hitting again, Roy Oswalt went out and spun seven shutout innings against the woeful Los Angeles Dodgers. Lidge struck out two in the ninth inning, and now all of a sudden the Phillies have won seven of their last 10, and 15 of their last 19.

The club will not rush Utley, however. He had surgery on July 1, and the Phillies predicted he would miss eight weeks. They absolutely will not force him to return until he’s ready. They can afford to wait for Utley until September, but they can’t afford to lose him again when he returns.

The Phillies hope to get Victorino back soon. Brown will be sent back down, it appears, as he has struggled since his debut, hitting only .237. The Phillies are also waiting on Ryan Howard, who went on the DL with a sprained ankle after hurting it August 1.

Howard had 23 homers before he got hurt and kept the lineup revolving around him in the absence of Utley. Somehow, someway the Phillies have used Werth’s .395 OBP and a lot of spare parts to keep the wheels turning towards another October.

Nobody is talking about Roy Halladay this year—possibly because Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, and Stephen Strasburg have gotten all the hype among N.L. arms—but he has quietly posted a 2.34 ERA in 185 innings. He’ll likely win 20 games again, exceed 230 innings, and lead the Phillies back to October.

Halladay, Oswalt and Cole Hamels—who has enjoyed a nice rebound year—are still the best one-two-three the N.L. has to offer.

We will see if the Braves can hold on. If they indeed with the division, they will have earned it.

At a time when we like to point to the next big thing in baseball, the Phillies know more than any other club that the last seven weeks of the season are the longest seven weeks of the season.

Veteran teams hang on and ride it out, while young teams feel the pressure and wilt.

If you closed the book on the 2010 Phillies a few weeks ago, it’s time to pick it up and start reading again.

The two-time defending N.L. champs are still here, and they are only going to get better.

 

Follow Teddy Mitrosilis on Twitter. You can reach him at tm4000@yahoo.com.

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Now That Cliff Lee Has Joined the Phillies, Rest of NL Heads for the Hills

There won’t be any Roy Halladay parade in the streets of Philadelphia, as it turns out, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be a World Series parade in the coming months.

The Phillies’ hopes for defending their crown are alive and well after the team agreed in principle to a trade that would send Cleveland left-hander Cliff Lee to the Phillies, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports.

The deal is still pending physicals, but it looks like a four-for-two swap, with the Phillies getting Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco in exchange for pitchers Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, infielder Jason Donald, and catcher Lou Marson.

With the deal, the Indians sell on a sinking season and get out from under Lee’s 2010 contract, while continuing to stockpile their farm system with high-end prospects. This gives the Indians tremendous value for the short and long term.

For the Phillies, this deal is obviously all about winning now, which is the right move. Lee isn’t Roy Halladay, but let’s face it, nobody is. Lee is still darn good, though, and is the power arm that the Phils desperately needed at the front of their rotation heading into October.

Some people may think Lee is only a one-year wonder with his remarkable ’08 Cy Young campaign, but he is actually pitching quite well this season despite his 7-9 record with the morbid Indians. Lee has a 3.14 ERA in 152 innings and 107 strikeouts to only 33 walks.

Francisco is a fourth outfielder in Philadelphia and only a side note in this blockbuster deal, but he has a little bit of pop and can be an adequate bench player.

I was in the camp that thought Phillies GM Ruben Amaro should have offered whatever it would take to the Blue Jays to bring in Halladay because their window to win championships is clearly now. But if we size up both prospective deals, this one may be a better all-around fit for the Phillies in terms of impact on their big league club now and on their farm system in the future.

In acquiring Lee, the Phillies did not have to give up prize pitcher Kyle Drabek, the guy that almost had to be included in any Halladay deal; they didn’t have to give up their top hitting prospect in outfielder Dominic Brown; and they didn’t have to ship off any parts of their big league club, namely rookie pitcher J.A. Happ, who has garnered interest by going 7-1 with a 2.97 ERA in 12 starts.

But more importantly than saving a couple pieces of their farm system, this trade now swings the balance of power in the National League back over to the Phillies, in my opinion. I thought the Dodgers were the strongest team for October due to their depth in pitching relative to the Phillies’ thin batch of arms.

But now that Lee is in Philly to take some pressure off of Cole Hamels, all bets are off.

No, Hamels hasn’t pitched like the Hamels of ’08, but he has been pitching in uncharted territory for most of the season. He experienced the heaviest workload of his career last season as the Phillies won it all, and he has also had the pressures of upholding a rotation this season that hasn’t had much from Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer.

Joe Blanton has been the only other regular guy to take the ball, and that simply isn’t enough.

But now that Happ has surfaced and is thriving in the big leagues, the Phillies have three arms that they would be comfortable rolling out come October. You may notice that the three aforementioned starting pitchers are all left-handed, but I wouldn’t be too concerned about that because Hamels and Lee aren’t your typical southpaws.

It’s great to match up well against your opponent, but I’ve always stuck to the philosophy that superior talent wins out—and that’s exactly what the Phillies are now equipped with.

They are going to face a strong Dodgers team in the postseason, in all likelihood, but the Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda/Randy Wolf trio doesn’t seem much better than what the Phillies have to offer. In fact, it’s not anymore with the addition of Lee.

Kershaw has taken huge strides towards being considered one of the top starters in all of baseball, and he has been the true rock of a Dodgers pitching staff that hasn’t gotten by so easily now that we are in the thick of summer. Billingsley has had more than his share of struggles recently, and of course there are still plenty of doubts about whether or not he can step up to answer the bell and spotlight of October.

I don’t have those same doubts about Billingsley because I think his one poor showing last fall isn’t enough to completely judge the mental fortitude of a 24-year-old kid, but hey, the ball is now in the Dodgers’ dugout in terms of improving their roster.

They are going to ride easily to a National League West crown, but that is no longer enough for the fans in Los Angeles. They want to see a winner, something that hasn’t graced Chavez Ravine since ’88, and there will be a much tougher road ahead once they can’t feast on the likes of the Diamondbacks and Padres.

Maybe the Dodgers now make a play for Seattle’s Jarrod Washburn. Are they in the Halladay sweepstakes or out? Tough to tell, but I would say out as long as Kershaw or Billingsley is being asked for.

Whatever it is, there will be more moves made, because the Phillies have now knocked over that first big domino on their way to playoff power, and they have made it clear that they want a second consecutive crack at a World Series title.

Halladay won’t be throwing their first pitch of October, but Lee will, and that’s not a bad alternative at all.

You can reach Teddy Mitrosilis at tm4000@yahoo.com.

The Right Rollins Could Get Phillies Rollin’ to October

Who would have thought that at the beginning of July the baseball world would be applauding three teams from the National League West, while remaining vexed with four teams from the National League East?

But here we are, and the Los Angeles Dodgers look strong and deep; the Colorado Rockies have been the hottest team in baseball for the last month; and the San Francisco Giants have pitched their way to the top of the N.L. Wild Card race.

On a different coast, the Philadelphia Phillies lead the East merely by default; the Mets are spending more time in the doctor’s office than the clubhouse; the Marlins aren’t doing anything more than treading water by playing .500 ball in a sinking division; and the Braves are underachieving with one starter hitting over .300.

It’s a baseball paradox of Philly cheese steak proportions, and with so many questions involved, who knows how it will shake out?

We don’t really, but there is one guy in the division who could change all of that, and his name is Jimmy Rollins.

Who?

Yeah, Philly fans haven’t seen him this year, either.

But that’s exactly why Rollins holds the key to such an unstable division. The Phillies haven’t had “Jimmy Rollins” in their lineup once this season; they have had some Fathead portrait of the guy who once captivated the entire city at shortstop.

After hitting .211 with six home runs and a .254 OBP through 68 games this season, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel decided it was best to sit his relentless shortstop last week. Currently, Rollins is set to return to the Phillies’ lineup when they open a three-game series in Atlanta on Tuesday.

The strategy’s aim was to give Rollins time to clear his head and get back to being the player he ought to be. During his four games off, Manuel didn’t want Rollins taking batting practice or anything.  In fact, the less thinking about baseball, the better.

“I want him to sit down. I want him to kind of get away,” Manuel told the Philadelphia Daily News last week. “I told him if he didn’t want to, he doesn’t have to take BP. I want him to just get away for a couple of days and sit and watch and hopefully just relax and try to get his thinking back and the way he feels and everything.”

Which is smart, because Manuel knows that the division is there for the taking. Another deep October run could be theirs when they aren’t playing their best ball and are surviving with smoke and mirrors on the mound.

Remember, it was only two seasons ago that Rollins became one of four men since 1871 to join the 20-20-20-20 Club by accumulating 20 or more doubles, triples, home runs, and stolen bases in a single season.

Who are the other men?

Curtis Granderson did it the same year as Rollins with the Detroit Tigers. Then we have to go back to Willie Mays in 1957 with the New York Giants, and Frank Schulte in 1911 with the Chicago Cubs. That’s it.

So we know what type of dynamic player Rollins is and can be, and the Phillies are just waiting for that same guy to come back. This is already a club that ranks 1st in the N.L. in home runs and 2nd in the league in runs scored.

With a normal Rollins batting leadoff in Philadelphia and a healthy Raul Ibanez in the middle of the order, the Phillies lineup is one of the meanest gauntlets in baseball when you add Shane Victorino, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley to the aforementioned two. Even Jayson Werth is better than most other outfielders the Phillies will see come August and September.

If Rollins doesn’t bounce back to his career levels at least, then it becomes a wide-open division again if only because Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a larger crack than the Liberty Bell.

The Phils rank 15th in the N.L. in earned runs, so we can fairly assume that it can’t get much worse. But where is the improvement going to come from?

Cole Hamels must pitch better than his 4.44 ERA, Jamie Moyer isn’t fooling anybody with his ERA hovering above 6.00, and Joe Blanton hasn’t had the type of success in the N.L. that the Phillies thought he would have when they got him from Oakland last summer.

Sure, Citizens Bank Park is a hitter’s park, but a sinker ball pitcher shouldn’t be getting knocked around like Blanton is.

Brad Lidge spent some time on the DL with a sprained knee in early June and hasn’t been close to the same guy he was in ’08 when he converted every save opportunity for the entire season.

What’s been Lidge’s problem? You could make a number of cases, but I would look at the 5.6 walks per nine innings he is averaging. With stuff that good, Lidge just needs to let it fly in the zone and see what happens.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. will be one of the most active men on the trading front for starting pitching as the deadline approaches, but with so many teams looking for arms and so few quality arms available, there just aren’t many upgrades to be had.

“We have interest in a lot of guys and we have talked to several teams about pitching across the board,” Amaro Jr. told MLB.com. “But a lot of it just depends on which pitching becomes available. And if they do become available, if we have the right fits for them.”

“When you have this many teams in the race it’s very thin,” Amaro said. “It’s always thin. Again, there were three teams who got pitching last year. Three teams out of 30. That’s 10 percent.”

And, in reality, that may be the tipping point for the Phillies. The lack of pitching available via trade combined with the thin pitching staffs within the division could make the N.L. East a summer slugfest. If that’s the case, Philadelphia already is the team to beat and will be even more so when Rollins joins the party.

None of the N.L. East teams look real pretty in comparison with the Dodgers, Cardinals, or Brewers. But in the end it doesn’t matter because none of those teams are in the division.

What matters is that the Philadelphia Phillies are the only team in the N.L. East with a positive run differential (i.e. have scored more runs than allowed), and that certainly isn’t because they are carving teams up on the mound.

Thus far, Rollins has merely been a caricature of himself sans the flesh, blood, and heart.

We won’t know for a few games which Rollins has emerged from his mini-vacation.

But if the old chatty and swaggering J-Roll rides into the batter’s box to lead off the ballgame down South, we will know one thing:

The golden key to the East will be dangling from his neck.

You can reach Teddy Mitrosilis at tm4000@yahoo.com.