Ryan Howard: What to Expect from Slugger Upon Return

Ryan Howard added injury to insult when he tore his Achilles on the final groundout of Philadelphia’s failed NLDS battle with St. Louis. The latest projections (from Sports Radio 94 WIP via Twitter) have Howard out of action until at least May or June of next season.

There’s little doubt that the Phillies’ offense is going to be hurting until the big man returns. Even after he’s back in the lineup, though, Philadelphia may not get the kind of year they’d like out of their high-priced first baseman.

Howard’s production was already dipping even before the injury. Between 2009 and this year, his OPS dropped from a daunting .931 to a more ordinary .835 (which didn’t even beat out Shane Victorino’s figure for this season).

And, while Howard certainly isn’t going to be worried about stealing bases on his tender ankle, he needs a solid base to create the power in his home-run swing. His timing will almost certainly be off when he first gets back on the diamond, even if he waits until the ankle is 100 percent.

Worse, if he comes back too early and starts favoring the ankle, his production could take a nosedive.

The rehab effort also won’t be helped by Howard’s bulk. His 6-foot-4 240-pound build isn’t excessive for a power hitter, but it will mean more weight to put on the ankle and more potential to aggravate it during the recovery process.

Assuming Howard is back by June 1, he’ll have missed roughly a third of the season. Chop a third off his home run totals from the last couple of years, and you’re looking at something like 20 homers contributed to the Phils’ cause.

Adjust that figure for having to get up to speed midseason and for the difficulty of swinging for the fences on a rebuilt ankle, and Philadelphia will be lucky to get 15 dingers out of its best power hitter in 2012.

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Ryan Howard: What Phillies Offense Will Look Like in 2012 Without Howard

As Philadelphia fans are already sick of hearing, Ryan Howard tore his Achilles tendon running out the ground ball that ended the Phillies’ NLDS defeat. According to Sports Radio 94 WIP via Twitter, the latest word is that Howard will be out until at least May or June of next season.

Facing the prospect of two months or more without its best hitter, the Philadelphia offense can’t be feeling too optimistic. After all, this is a group that followed up its 11-run outburst in Game 1 of the LDS with a total of 11 in the next four games.

Making life even more difficult for the Phillies is the $125 million tied up in Howard’s contract. With minimal financial wiggle room, they won’t have much chance to sign an impact replacement.

Sorry, Phillies fans, but Albert Pujols isn’t coming to the rescue.

With Howard excised from the middle of the batting order, the likeliest scenario is that this year’s No. 5 hitter, Shane Victorino, will take over the cleanup duties. Considering that Victorino’s .847 OPS actually topped Howard’s .835 this year, that move won’t necessarily be much of a sacrifice for the Phils.

Finding a replacement for Howard at first base will be more problematic. John Mayberry Jr., who hit well in a platoon role, may have to play against lefties while another backup outfielder (say, youngster Domonic Brown?) starts against right-handers.

Ben Francisco could also be in the mix, but like Brown, he has minimal power—especially for a corner infielder.

The upshot will be that the Phils sacrifice a substantial number of home runs from an aging lineup that was starting to show cracks even with Howard. Add in the safely-assumed decline of soon-to-be 40-year-old Raul Ibañez and a team that scored an unremarkable 713 runs (worst among N.L. playoff teams) will have a rough time scoring even enough for its formidable pitching staff in 2012.

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