Why Darin Ruf Won’t Start the 2013 Season in Philadelphia

Many fans are intrigued by the possibilities of what Darin Ruf could bring to the 2013 Phillies. 

Virtually an unknown prior to his breakout 2012 season, Ruf took the Eastern League by storm, bashing 38 home runs and driving in 105 runs.  With the Phillies lacking for a right-handed power bat ever since Jayson Werth left for D.C. millions, Ruf’s presence could change the entire dynamic of their lineup

In a brief September audition with the Phillies, he did not disappoint.  Despite getting only 33 at-bats Ruf showed the type of power and poise he demonstrated in Reading, and gave fans something to be excited about after a lackluster season.

With Ryan Howard and his massive contract entrenched at first base for the foreseeable future, Ruf is spending his offseason learning to play the outfield  If he’s successful, the Phillies may have found their left fielder for the next several seasons.

However, regardless of how well he learns to play the outfield or what type of potential Ruf brings, the chances of the Phillies making him their opening day left fielder next season are miniscule.  It might not be the right choice—he’s already 26 years old and has shown he can dominate minor league pitching—but it’s unlikely he will be anywhere other than Lehigh Valley next April.

Here’s why.

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Analyzing the Philadelphia Phillies Outfield Options

The Phillies just put on one of their worst offensive performances in years.  In fact, they scored fewer runs in 2012 than any Phillies team since 1997—Scott Rolen’s rookie year.  If not for a starting rotation led by two of the best pitchers in baseball, they may have finished much worse than 81-81.

Heading into the winter it’s no secret what the Phillies’ needs are offensively—outfield help and a third baseman—and which players are on the market.  The only thing we don’t know for sure is which player, if any, will join the Phillies when all is said and done.

Ahead I will look at the top five outfielders on the market, what each one brings to the club and analyze whether or not it’s worth the effort and cost.

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5 Things the Philadelphia Phillies Need to Fix

With free agency upon us, rumors have begun circulating everywhere, speculation about which player ended up where have been rampant.  Phillies fans know what their club needs: an outfielder (maybe two), a third baseman and dependable relief help.

Every one of those needs can be found and addressed on the free-agent market.  Theoretically, at least the Phillies can go out and sign Josh Hamilton, Kevin Youkilis and Jeremy Affeldt.  They should have the money (whether they want to spend it and cross the tax threshold remains to be seen) if that is their desire.

And yet doing so might not solve all of the Phillies problems, nor return them to playoff contention.  That’s because most of what plagued the Phillies in 2012 (and in a way, both in 2010 and 2011 playoffs) were internal problems.  

Going forward, if the Phillies are going to reclaim their level of prominence atop the National League, they are going to have to deal with these issues first.  No matter which free agents they sign or players they bring in through trades, the Phillies will not be legitimate World Series contenders until they solve these five issues.

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Philadelphia Phillies: B.J. Upton Is Not Worth the Cost of First-Round Pick

Now that the Tampa Bay Rays have extended a qualifying offer to B.J. Upton, is it any less likely the Philadelphia Phillies pursue him?

Probably not. But it should be.

If there is a silver lining to the terrible season that was 2012, it is that the Phillies will once again draft outside the bottom of baseball.  With an 81-81 finish, their worst record in a decade, the Phillies qualified for the 16th pick in baseball’s annual draft next summer—the highest they’ve selected since 2001.  (Cole Hamels was the 17th pick in 2002.)

In the four drafts that proceeded their fall (or climb, depending on how you look at it) from the top half of the draft, the Phillies selected Gavin Floyd (’01, picked fourth), Chase Utley (’00, picked 15th), Brett Myers (’99, picked 12th) and Pat Burrell (’98, picked first overall).  Each of these players, outside of Floyd, were major components of the club that won the 2008 World Series.

No player the Phillies have drafted since Cole Hamels has had as much impact as Cole or the three of the four first-round picks preceding him (mentioned above). 

Could that be a direct correlation to where in the draft they are selecting, or is it simply luck of the draw?

Vance Worley was chosen with the 102nd overall selection in 2008, and while he has been a nice find, his future is anything but set in stone.  He could develop into the next Cole Hamels or simply be a flash in the pan.  Most likely, Worley will end up somewhere in between the two extremes.

 

The probability of finding impact talent outside the first round of the draft is too rare for the Phillies to pass up on their highest draft pick in a decade in order to sign a player with so many question marks.

I’m well versed on what the Phillies need going forward.  (While the team’s biggest fault in 2012 was the lack of a true eighth-inning shutdown reliever, it’s hard to believe it’s going to be an issue going forward.  Either the Phillies will sign a veteran setup reliever or one of their young arms, many of whom gained valuable experience in 2012, will step up and fill the void.)  They need a center fielder.  They need a right-handed power bat in the lineup.  And they need to get younger.

B.J. Upton fits all of those things and more: He can steal bases, plays good defense and despite his nearly seven full seasons in the major leagues, still has enormous upside.  I have no doubt that if the Phillies were to sign Upton, he would thrive in Philadelphia.  His power numbers would probably skyrocket playing in Citizens Bank Park, and until he gave them a reason not to, the fans would adore him.

But Upton is also a player who has struck out almost one out of every three at-bats in the major leagues, is a career .255 hitter and has never slugged over .500 in a season in which he’s gotten 500 at-bats.  

Is spending $75 million (which is what it will likely take to sign Upton) and losing a first-round draft pick worth the cost?  Upton has a career WAR (although it’s the stat I hate the most, because its premise is flawed and makes absolutely no sense) average of just 2.4 per season.

To me, it isn’t, and there are far better uses for both their money and draft pick.  The Phillies would be better served, both in 2013 and going forward, in bringing back Shane Victorino and signing a veteran right-handed bat like Torii Hunter to play right field. 

B.J. Upton would look great in center field next April.  However, the cost would be too great.  Paying the man is one thing, but doing so and giving up the opportunity to find the next Mike Trout is something else. 

Now that Tampa Bay has attached draft-pick compensation to B.J. Upton, please move on and find someone else.

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Philadelphia Phillies: The Top 5 Players They Should Avoid This Winter

The Phillies have a number of holes on their team and a lot of money to spend this offseason.  They can upgrade through free agency or trades and add multiple players if they choose.  However, in recent seasons they have been pressed tightly against their self-imposed salary cap (the luxury tax threshold) and that’s not likely to change in the near future.

While every significant move they make has long-term ramifications, the ones they make this offseason will likely shape the next few years of Phillies baseball and determine whether or not they return to playoff contention.

The Phillies need an outfielder (or two, or three), a third baseman and bullpen help.  There have already been a lot of names mentioned.  

Here is my take on the top five players the Phillies should avoid at all costs.

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Darin Ruf or Domonic Brown—For the Philadelphia Phillies, That Is the Question

Domonic Brown or Darin Ruf.

It seems obvious that at least one of them, and most likely only one, will be in the Phillies starting lineup in Atlanta come April.  The only question remaining is: which one?

Brown has been the Phillies’ highest rated, most untouchable prospect (at least in their eyes) since the day Mike Schmidt retired.  Okay, it hasn’t been that long, but sometimes it feels like it.  

In recent seasons the Phillies have traded away several minor leaguers to acquire the game’s top talent—Cliff Lee, Roys Halladay and Oswalt, Hunter Pence—and in every instance they have held on to Brown, believing he is the one “can’t miss” prospect.

However, Brown has done nothing at the major league level to warrant those beliefs.  In parts of three seasons, Brown’s performances across the board have been underwhelming to say the least.  He has shown absolutely no ability to be an impact hitter at the major league level, and looks defensively inept.

Which brings us to Darin Ruf, the Phillies’ minor league phenom of 2012.

Before this summer, hardly anyone in Philly had ever heard his named mentioned.  That’s the way of life for a 25-year-old beginning his first season in Double A.  

However, after breaking Ryan Howard’s single-season home run record at Reading, and then putting on a show for the big league club during the last week of the season, Darin Ruf is now a name everyone knows.  

He’s being talked about by fans everywhere, and is spending his offseason attempting to learn a new position.  With Howard—and his massive contract—firmly entrenched at first base, the only way Ruf cracks the Phillies lineup is in the outfield.  

Unfortunately for Ruf (and Brown), if the Phillies are going to spend any big free-agent dollars this winter it will likely be in the outfield.  And with several other major league outfielders either under contract or club control through at least 2013, there will be numerous bodies to fill positions on the field.

With three front-line starting pitchers, the highest paid reliever in the history of the game, and an aging roster, it’s doubtful the Phillies will enter next season with essentially two rookies in their outfield (Brown is not a rookie per se, but he’s as close to an unknown as one can get).  

One will play, one won’t.  It’s as simple as that.  And the choice between the two will logically come down to Domonic Brown playing and Darin Ruf heading to Lehigh Valley.

Based on what the two players have shown—both in the minor leagues and in brief auditions with the Phillies—some might argue that Ruf is the better player.  And he may very well be.  Ruf could turn into an adequate outfielder who slugs enough home runs to make up for any defensive laps, and Brown could be a complete major league bust.  

(Although a 20th round draft pick even reaching the major leagues should eliminate “complete bust” from his description; he’s already accomplished more than could realistically have been expected.)

However, if the Phillies are intent on starting one—and that seems to be the way they’re heading—giving Domonic Brown the opportunity makes the most sense.  He might not be the better player—not now, not ever—but the Phillies have a lot more invested in Brown than they do Ruf, and have reached the point of no return.

Brown is (or should be) out of minor league options.  Returning him to Triple A once more would require exposing him to waivers and risk losing him for nothing.  That is not the case with Darin Ruf, who can be optioned to the minor leagues without fear in both 2013 and 2014.

Even if the rules didn’t prevent the Phillies from sending Brown back to the minor leagues, doing so would make little sense.  His value—good or bad—will only be realized at the major league level.  The Phillies gain nothing from sending him to Triple A, and Brown would undoubtedly lose value with yet another minor league season.

Sending Darin Ruf to Lehigh Valley does not diminish his value.  In fact, going to Triple A and proving he can handle advanced pitching and playing the outfield might increase his worth within the organization and as a potential trade chip.  If Ruf continues his assault on minor league pitching he’ll be on his way to the majors soon enough.

Many fans—and possibly team officials—may be tired of waiting for Brown’s talent to emerge, and may be enamored with Darin Ruf’s potential, but for the long-term health of the franchise Domonic Brown needs one more chance.  It’s now or never for Brown.  Ruf will have another opportunity down the line—possibly as early as June or July.

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Philadephia Phillies: 5 Less Outside-the-Box Trade Ideas

Earlier this week I wrote an article suggesting some very outside-the-box, crazy trade ideas.  Most centered around well-known players with expensive contracts, and I understood that all were unlikely to occur.  However, after the backlash I received—more than one person questioned what I was smoking—I’ve decided to attempt again, and this time give five possible trades that are not so outside-the-box.

In a couple of the trades I proposed in my earlier piece I suggested moving Ryan Howard.  The only way Howard gets moved, at this point in his career and with his contract, is for another bad contract.  That was the idea behind packaging him in a deal for Joe Mauer (his contract is even worse).  

Other than taking back an equally bad, or worse, contract, the Phillies are not going to move Ryan Howard.  And they probably shouldn’t.

The Phillies’ two best trade pieces, on their major league club, are pitchers Cliff Lee and Vance Worley.  While their minor league system has been gutted in recent years in an attempt to continue winning division titles, it is not completely barren.  

However, if they were to attempt to deal for a player like Chase Headley or Jacoby Ellsbury, it would probably rob them of what talent they have left in their minor league system.  

All that being said, the Phillies do have the pieces necessary to upgrade their team.  They may not make a franchise-altering move, but they have a chance to get someone who can help them.

Without anymore babbling, here are a few deals the Phillies could possibly make this winter.

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Philadelphia Phillies: The Best and Worst Things They Can Do This Offseason

No one knows for sure what the Phillies will do this offseason.  Will they be aggressive and make big, splashy moves?  Or will they play it conservative and attempt to both better the team now, but also maintain flexibility for the future?  After perhaps the most frustrating season in Phillies history, it’s hard to predict.

General manager Ruben Amaro has never been shy about making deals.  When he sets his sights on a player—either in free agency or the trade market—he gets him more often than not.  

When the Phillies traded Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino at the trading deadline, they did so with the intention to free up payroll space for the 2013 team.  While only upper management knows for sure how much the Phillies will budget for next season, any moves that are made need to be the right ones.

This winter, Amaro once again has the opportunity to show whether he’s a confident major league GM or if he’s, as some fans like to call him, “Clueless Rube.” 

With all due respect to the baseball lifer, here’s some advice: the three best and worst moves the Phillies could make this winter.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Unlikely Trades to Alter Baseball in South Philly

The Philadelphia Phillies have a payroll bordering on the obscene:  They owe tens of millions of dollars in guaranteed contracts to players who are unlikely to ever live up to them, have a rapidly aging roster and a rabid fanbase thirsty for another parade.

With all that going on—and a front office determined to continue filling seats at Citizens Bank Park—will the Phillies be able to significantly overhaul their roster while not missing a beat on the field?  

The odds say no, but if the events of the 2012 baseball season are any indication, nothing is impossible. Would anyone have believed the Red Sox could have moved as much payroll as they did?  

In this piece, I will examine a few outside-the-box trade ideas that will probably never occur, but that could dramatically reshape the Phillies’ roster for years to come.

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A Realistic Look at the 2013 Philadelphia Phillies

After finishing the 2012 season with a disappointing 81-81 record, the Phillies enter perhaps their most chaotic offseason in recent memory. 

Are wholesale changes in order? Should they blow up the team and start over? Would pursing trades for Cliff Lee or any of their other high-priced veterans make sense?

Or should they write 2012 off as an aberration, a season lost to injuries and inconsistencies from those same high-priced veterans.

Logic tells us that blowing up the roster and starting over is impossible. 

With a roster filled with nearly untradable contracts—Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jonathan Papelbon—there’s no reasonable way the Phillies can completely alter the course they’re on. The only thing they can do is try to tweak the roster, to make subtle changes that result in enough improvements to offset any failings of its older stars.

Unlike last winter, heading into this offseason the Phillies are fairly certain of what they are. With the exception of Roy Halladay and Domonic Brown, there aren’t many questions regarding what to expect from most players on the roster. 

Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, cornerstones of the franchise, are unlikely to either play a full season or produce like they have in the past—ever again.

The Phillies need outfield help in a big way, and could use a miracle to solve the issue at third base.

Their starting rotation will continue to be a strength of the team. Catcher Carlos Ruiz is the one of the best in the business, and the team’s young bullpen got a lot of experience down the stretch last season.

All that being said, this is how I realistically envision the 2013 Phillies team panning out.

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