Offseason Advice to Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro: Stand Pat

This offseason, Ruben Amaro needs to do something he’s never done before: proceed with caution.  Since taking over as Phillies GM following the 2008 World Series championship, Amaro has been known more for the bold, splashy moves than the under-the-radar ones.  He’s jumped in and set the market, signing big-money free agents like Raul Ibanez and Jonathan Papelbon and trading for Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Hunter Pence among others.

None of it has worked so far.  

Even with a seemingly endless budget from ownership, Amaro has not gotten the Phillies over the plateau again.  While the big-money, big-name players have produced some of the best summers ever remembered by Phillies fans, they have repeatedly come up short in October.  While the blame for the postseason failures does not fall squarely on Amaro’s shoulders (Charlie Manuel can be more influential to the team, good or bad, in a short series), he is not without blame.

The 2012 disaster deserves equal blame among the two men—both for the construction of the roster (too top-heavy, not enough emphasis on specific aspects of the game—bullpen, bench, defense) and the game plan throughout the season (the asinine non-usage of Papelbon in tie games, the failure to adapt the lineup, the mismanagement of the bullpen).  However, this is still a good team at its core.  It does not need a big splash, something done with an eye both on immediately improving the team and selling tickets.

In other words, the Phillies do not need to break the bank to sign Josh Hamilton.  Doing so might make them more formidable in 2013, but would set the franchise back several years.  A good comparison is the Hunter Pence trade; the Phillies did not need Hunter Pence in 2011, and as it turned out they weren’t much better because he was in the lineup.  However, the Phillies saw an opportunity to improve the team and re-energize the fan-base, and jumped on it.  All it cost them were a few of their better prospects, who could now be offered in exchange for a player like Chase Headley without completely bankrupting the system.

Amaro needs to operate with restraint this offseason; he needs to look at the big, long-term picture (and not just in terms of staying under the luxury tax threshold, or as they love to say: “cost certainty”.)  

The Phillies do need help.  They need an outfielder or two, more veteran presence in the bullpen, and perhaps even another starting pitcher.  They need to figure out what to do at third base, whether or not Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will ever be the players the Phillies built their team around, and to finally realize that they are not the team of 2008/2009, when they could out-slug everyone.  

The Phillies need to stay away from the big-name players, the ones who are going to sign enormous contracts that can’t be moved if the player doesn’t live up to expectations.  Hamilton, BJ Upton or Michael Bourn patrolling center-field would be a mistake.  Amaro should concentrate his efforts on bringing in players like Shane Victorino or Angel Pagan, players whose lower production levels won’t be enough to justify the difference in potential contracts of the top three.  They need to sign a couple of veteran relievers—Ryan Madson, Jonathan Broxton, Mike Adams come to mind—and perhaps add an innings-eating starter.

But what the Phillies do not need is Amaro to be Amaro.  They do not need him to make a big splash, to shock the baseball world with a big signing or trade.  They need him to take a page out of his predecessor’s book and stand pat.  This Phillies team is good enough to win the World Series with a few minor tweaks.  And if Amaro manages to control himself this offseason, the Phillies will be better off long-term.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Philly WILL Target Free Agent BJ Upton

While Ruben Amaro has been coy about his offseason plans, even telling Todd Zolecki of MLB.com that he has no clear “number one priority” for the offseason, the Phillies GM has made no secret about his desire to upgrade the club.

After trading away several veteran players—most prominently Hunter Pence—the Phillies have both avoided paying the luxury tax this season and freed up salary space for 2013. With a payroll already slated to approach (and perhaps exceed) $160 million to begin the offseason, the Phillies have under $20 million to spend before crossing the luxury tax threshold.

With several holes on the team—the outfield, the bullpen, third-base and someone to fill in for Chase Utley for a month or two—they obviously will be unable to fix everything through free agency. Both their budget and the scarcity of available players at those positions make that impossible.  With a number of cheap(er) options for relief help, and the lack of any free agent third-baseman of value on the market, the odds are that the majority of free-agent dollars the Phillies spend this offseason will be spent to address the outfield situation.  

However, that does not mean, nor should it mean, that the Phillies will exhaust their entire budget to land the biggest target on the market.  Even though their recent history shows they tend to go after the biggest and boldest name on the market—Roy Halladay in 2009, Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee in 2010, Pence in 2011—it’s doubtful they will be going after Josh Hamilton.

It may not make perfect sense, and probably will end up causing more issues than it solves, but the player the Phillies will target this offseason is BJ Upton.

Here’s why.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Predicting Their Offseason

Regardless of how the Phillies’ season ends—whether they finish off this miraculous run or they go home when the regular season ends—Ruben Amaro and company have a lot of work to do.  

They need to find solutions for the outfield, at third base and in the bullpen.  

The Phillies currently have almost $134 million in guaranteed contracts to nine players (or at least their average annual value, the only number that matters when calculating the luxury tax) for 2013. 

With only a few arbitration-eligible candidates—Nate Schierholtz being the most significant—the total cost of payroll for players currently on their roster should not exceed $150 million.  Factoring in the Phillies’ share of MLB’s medical and benefits plan of around $10-$12 million, their starting budget becomes about $162 million. 

With the luxury tax threshold remaining steady at $178 million, the Phillies will likely have less than $20 million to spend in the free-agent market if they are to avoid paying it once again.  However, with the tax increasing to $189 million for the 2014 season, the Phillies ownership group may decide to spend extra money in 2013 with the knowledge they’ll get back under the tax threshold in 2014. 

That is not something any of us fans, nor reporters, have a true grasp on, and until it happens one way or the other it is pure speculation.  If the Phillies decide to exceed the tax threshold in 2013 it could give them the flexibility of spending upwards of $30 million in the free-agent marketplace.  

Considering all options, this is what I see the Phillies doing in their offseason to rebuild the club for the 2013 season.

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The Philadelphia Phillies Can’t Possibly Pull off Another Playoff Run

Once again this Philadelphia Phillies team has come through and put together yet another amazing late-reason run when it mattered most.  Fans have suddenly gotten back into the game and there is a rekindled electricity at Citizens Bank Park these days.  However, will their effort be enough to launch the Phillies to their sixth consecutive post-season appearance?  Odds say no, that the hole they dug themselves is far too deep to climb out of, and whatever last-ditch run they make will be for naught when the final curtain closes on the 2012 regular season. 

 The top five reasons the Phillies will fail to rebound this season.

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Fixing the Philadelphia Phillies: 4 Steps Back to Dominance

Despite being one of the few remaining fools refusing to give up on the 2012 season until the door is actually slammed shut, I also realize this this Phillies team has glaring holes that need correcting this winter. 

Their fall from the pinnacle of baseball—102 wins and an all-but-certain trip to the World Series—has been sudden and epic, but their return to the top of the mount can be just as quick and dramatic. 

With a few tweaks, instead of a major overhaul, the Phillies can easily continue contending for World Championships.  

A lot of what went wrong in Philadelphia this year—Ryan Howard missing the first half of the season; Roy Halladay injuring his shoulder and struggling to find his grove; Cliff Lee’s absolutely astonishing season—are unlikely to repeat themselves in 2013. 

(Please note there was no mention of Chase Utley, who I fully expect to be ready to go until the last moment, when it’s decided he needs two to three months of rehab in order to play the game at half the player he once was.)  And most of the other issues the Phillies faced this year are easily fixed, especially for a club with money to spend in free agency.

In recent seasons a lot has been made of the Phillies’ ownership group’s apparent refusal to exceed the luxury tax threshold (not that it has stopped them from adding payroll when needed).  With the trades of Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence and Joe Blanton this summer, the team will avoid paying the fine once again this year. 

However, they have almost no chance of doing so again in 2013, and with the tax threshold raised for the 2014 season to $189 million (from $178 million), that gives the Phillies an extra $11 million in “cap” space. 

Without any big-name arbitration-eligible players (i.e., Cole Hamels, Hunter Pence), the Phillies theoretically could add two or three impact players without exceeding their budget.  However, not all that ills this club can be corrected in free agency. 

Without any further adieu, here are the four steps I believe the Phillies must take in order to return them to the National League powerhouse they were only a year ago.  

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MLB Trade Deadline: After Landing Hunter Pence, Whom Will Ruben Amaro Target?

Do you have any friends who you absolutely adore, but hate talking to? I know I do. Whenever they call, I can’t seem to get off the phone fast enough.

That’s what it must be like for Ruben Amaro’s fellow general managers around Major League Baseball. 

Amaro has been in baseball his entire life and knows everyone.  However, when other GMs see his caller ID on their phones, they must cringe.

“Oh no, what does that man want now?” they all must say.

Whatever it is that Amaro does say to them must make them want to get off the phone quickly; they must be willing to give up practically anything to just shut him up. 

There’s no other explanation for how he continually gets the players he wants from the teams he wants by giving up the scraps he no longer needs.

For the second time in as many Julys, Amaro has “stolen” a player from the Houston Astros.

Reports were that he’d offered Jonathan Singleton and Jarred Cosart for the 28-year-old Hunter Pence a while back, but was flatly rejected. Then rumors started surfacing that Domonic Brown’s name was being floated around in trade talks for Pence, and many Phillies fans panicked. Why give up the future that is currently learning at the major league level, a player that is projected to be better than the one you’re acquiring?

Instead of parting with the one player he’d refused to in dealing for aces Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt, Amaro re-offered the package, included a couple of “players to be named later” (one of whom is rumored to be Double-A pitcher Josh Zeid), and wouldn’t let Astros GM Ed Wade off the phone until he accepted. 

Thus, the Phillies acquired Hunter Pence, who will be starting in Philadelphia’s right field beginning Saturday night.

Ruben Amaro has struck again! 

Once again he has gotten the player he targeted and only given up what he felt was expendable.

Now that he has done so, two questions have arisen: Do the Phillies have enough? If not, who will Amaro go after next?

As constructed, the Phillies have enough to potentially win the World Series. 

But before they dealt for Hunter Pence, the same could have been said. He’s an extra piece for a team that could have won the World Series without him. 

But he’s nice to have.

Now that the right-handed hitter they lacked is in the fold, what other piece or pieces do they go after? 

With Roy Oswalt seemingly on his way back to the rotation (and if history tells us anything, Oswalt is going to be dominant down the stretch and into the postseason), Vance Worley impersonating Roy Halladay, and the other aces performing well, the rotation is stacked for another deep run into October.

Once Placido Polanco returns from his injury, the Phillies will have nine everyday players for eight spots.  (The bet here is that Domonic Brown’s playing time gets cut down, as he has not produced as well expected and has actually cost the Phillies some games this year.)  

The only two places at which the Phillies really could use an upgrade are on the bench and in the bullpen. 

The bullpen has been strong all year, and with Brad Lidge back and showing his best stuff since 2008, it could get stronger. 

But it’s difficult to imagine the Phillies having 100-percent confidence in the abilities of Antonio Bastardo and Michael Stutes to get the biggest outs of the season under the hot lights of October. 

A veteran arm would be a tremendous addition, and with the market flooded with them, an acquisition shouldn’t be too hard to imagine.

Heath Bell and the like are probably out of the question, given payroll constraints and a dearth of prospects in the minor leagues.

But the Phillies could add a midlevel piece such as Tyler Clippard or Mike Gonzales. Some rumors put Octavio Dotel on the market as well, but nothing to tie the Phillies to him.

The Phillies definitely need some help on the bench. 

The only rumor floating around the internet is that Ruben Amaro has contacted the Minnesota Twins about the possibility of reacquiring Jim Thome.  The 40-year-old slugger is closing in on 600 home runs and would fit in with the Phillies much the way Matt Stairs did in 2008. Nothing would be sweeter than watching Thome launch a Brian Wilson fastball into McCovey Cove in the NLCS.

The Phillies are going to win the 2011 World Series.

I’ve believed that from the start of the season, and nothing I’ve seen has change my mind.

Ruben Amaro has his faults as a general manager, but he is aggressive and makes bold moves.  

With only hours left before the 2011 trading deadline, it will be interesting to see what other rabbit Amaro can pull out of his hat.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Demote Closer of the Future Bastardo?

Ryan Madson has finally returned from the disabled list, and will resume his role as the Phillies closer in the near future.  That could be today, or perhaps later in the week.  Either way Antonio Bastardo is going back to his role as the eighth inning man.  Or maybe even the seventh inning and situational lefty role when Brad Lidge returns, which is seeming closer and closer every day.

 It’s a nice problem to have for a contending team heading into August, trying to figure out which role to pitch your most effective reliever will pitch in.  It says something about the quality of the other guys in the bullpen.  However, does it make sense to move Bastardo around?  Should the Phillies leave him in the closer’s role?

Charlie Manuel is set in his ways as a manager.  Ryan Madson is his closer and will remain so, just as Brad Lidge did in 2009.  With four division championships and a World Series trophy under his belt it’s difficult to question his judgment, but in this case he might be wrong.  

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The Atlanta Braves Head to Philadelphia with a Chance to Take First Place

The Atlanta Braves, hot off a four-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies and winners of 14 of their last 17 games, head to Philadelphia with a chance to take over first-place in the National League East heading into the All-Star break. 

Lately, nearly everything has been going right for Atlanta.  Their pitching is top-notch and has shown it can compete with the best, even with Philly’s celebrated foursome—one of whom is relegated to the disabled list (Roy Oswalt) most of the summer.  Their offense has picked things up lately as well.  

Dan Uggla, the slugger the Braves acquired in the offseason, and then rewarded with a 5-year contract extension, has been absolutely dreadful most of the season.  However, it was never a matter if he would hit, but when.  Uggla’s batting average is still far below the Mendoza line, but his production has increased in recent weeks and he’s tied for the team lead in homers with 14.

Franchise player Chipper Jones may not be what he was even a few years ago, but there is still some life left in his bat and the veteran leadership he provides is unquestioned.  Brian McCann might be baseball’s best offensive catcher; he doesn’t generate the buzz that Joe Mauer’s name does, but McCann has steadily been one of the best hitting backstops in baseball for several years now.

Atlanta could definitely use another bat—and it would be surprising if Frank Wren doesn’t address that before the July 31 trading deadline—but their biggest asset is on the mound.  Jair Jurrjens is having a season for the ages and he might not even be the team’s best pitcher. Tommy Hanson is also having a fine season and Tim Hudson has been the ace of every staff he’s pitched on for many years now.

With most teams with great starting pitching, the goal is to work their pitch counts in hopes of getting into the bullpen for a chance to win.  That’s not the case with Atlanta, where they have perhaps the game’s best relievers.  Craig Kimbrel has been dominant, Brad Lidge—2004 dominant.  He’s among the league leaders in nearly every statistical category for relievers and, at times, has been downright un-hittable.  And Johnny Venters  is as good—if not better–from the left-side.  The rest of the pen is proven, durable and can come at an opponent for both sides with dominating stuff.

In any case, Atlanta is a scary competitor for most teams.  In the major leagues, Philadelphia has more wins and they have holes of their own.  This weekend series could help determine supremacy not only in the National League East but in baseball as well. 

But it’s still only July, with a lot of baseball left on the calendar.  Come September, hardly anyone will remember this series as pivotal, regardless of which team wins it.  The Braves could sweep and head into break with a half game lead in the division, or they could fall five and a half games back.  

Odds are neither team sweeps and Philadelphia holds its lead heading into the All-Star break.  And while the Braves are younger, they may not have the fortitude to hold on all year and catch the Phillies.  As good as Jurrjens, Hanson and Brandon Beachy have been this year—and will be in coming years—they also lack the experience of what pitching deep into October means for their young arms.  

The Phillies trio—Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels—have the experience of knowing exactly what it takes to get their team to late October and no doubt they will do it again.  

The Phillies have lined up their rotation perfectly for this series and should dominate it.  The Braves have gotten within 2.5 games of the division lead and despite all the good things happening in Atlanta that is as close as they will get.  The Phillies will take the series and division lead to the All-Star break and never relinquish it.  They will cruise to a fifth straight division title and probably meet the Wild-Card champion Atlanta Braves in the National League Championship Series.  

The Braves have built a phenomenal team and are as good as anybody.  But they’re the Phillies.  I wish them luck the remainder of the season, and look forward to seeing them in October.

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Phillies: Worley to the Minor Leagues and Mayberry Recalled– What’s Going On?

On the surface, it makes no sense.  

After pitching a career-high seven innings in back-to-back starts, winning both and participating in a 1-0 shutout win over the Florida Marlins, young starter Vance Worley has once again been optioned to Triple A Lehigh Valley.  He is an Iron-Pig again, and prospect (is he still one of those??) John Mayberry Jr. has been recalled to the big-league club.

However with the All-Star break next week, the Phillies off-day Thursday, and no true need for a fifth starter until sometime late next week—at the earliest—the move makes sense.  Worley would not have been making his regular starts over the next two weeks or so, and that lack of consistency was shown to hurt the hurler earlier in the season.  

With Shane Victorino nursing a sore hand/wrist (how he didn’t hurt his ankle on that play still baffles most), it makes sense to bring up an extra outfielder who can play center-field, and play it well.  Mayberry may not move around the way Victorino does when he’s chasing fly-balls in the outfield, but the 27 year old covers a lot of ground with his big, graceful steps.  

At some point, the Phillies are going to have to make a decision about Mayberry and his future in the organization.  He’s either going to be a part of the team—perhaps as a fourth outfielder who rides the bench or part of the solution to replace Raul Ibanez in 2012—or he’s going to have to seek employment elsewhere.  

This season, Mayberry has gotten more of an opportunity than he ever had before and showed improvements in some areas.  As of yet, he has not lived up to the expectations that come from his physical specimen and genetic line in his career—being the son of a man with 255 major league home runs and a couple of top-ten MVP finishes—but there is still time. 

Perhaps Mayberry may never be an everyday outfielder or even a steady major league player.  Or maybe he’s the next Jayson Werth: a player who’d been given up on by at least one organization only to show somewhere else that his talent wasn’t wasted.

If Mayberry ends up becoming a player like Werth, I think I speak for most Phillies fans when I say I hope it happens in Philadelphia and not somewhere else.

So in essence the move makes sense.  The Phillies have two young players they’ll need to make long-term decisions on over the next couple of months or even years.  Vance Worley may not be happy returning to the minor leagues, but at 23 years old, he needs the consistent work being in Triple-A will provide him to hopefully make his next return trip to Philadelphia the last one.

However, despite the excellent start to his major league career, the poise and confidence he has shown early on, the Phillies organization cannot be completely sold on him being a long-term piece to their rotation just yet. 

He hasn’t been around the league enough times for pitching coaches and teams to build up a substantial video catalog of his games, deliveries and tendencies.  Only once they do and we see how Worley reacts and adjusts will we know whether or not he has what it takes to succeed over the long haul in major league baseball.

Kyle Kendrick came up and won ten games in 2007, nearly single-handedly saving the Phillies’ season.  Since then he has been a serviceable pitcher, but nothing special and not the phenom he was right from the start.  

Worley could be another Kendrick, or he could turn into Greg Maddux.  Only time will tell.

The Phillies will have a lot of decisions to make in the next few weeks.  Do they need another offensive player?  Do they need any bullpen help?  What about the lackluster bench? 

The team must be hoping that optioning Vance Worley to Triple-A and bringing up John Mayberry Jr. helps to answer at least some of those questions and it moves forward in its quest for another World Series Championship.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Reasons They Will Cruise to Another NL East Crown

The 2011 edition of the Philadelphia Phillies is one of the deepest teams ever assembled in the City of Brotherly Love.  

However, not all has gone right for the team. They have lost players to injury, watched others fail to live up to expectations, and seen one of their Fab Four hurt his back and lose some zip on his fastball. Their offense has also struggled mightily at times, making the fans and front office scratch their heads in astonishment.  

The team that once struck fear into opponents now struggles to score more than three runs a game.

However it is a long season, things happen, and everyone—even the mighty Phillies— loses some swagger.  

But the Phillies will not lose their division lead again.

Here are five reasons why, when the calendar turns to the end of the season, the Phillies will be left standing as five-time defending NL East Champions.

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