Blowing the Lid off of Lidge

It is painful to think of what could have been this weekend.

Tonight the Phillies could be going for their 10th straight win.  They could be going for a four-game sweep of the team with the best record in baseball on the road.

Instead, the Phillies have watched closer Brad Lidge blow two games in a row.  They come into their Sunday night match-up looking to end a two-game losing streak and with a three-game lead over the Mets instead of a five-game lead.  Questions now are popping up about whether or not the Phillies should make a change in the bullpen and let Ryan Madson close instead.

In Brad’s defense, Friday night’s game wasn’t entirely his fault.  Pedro Feliz booted a ball that he should not have.  If Feliz made that play, it’s game over.  On the other hand, last year, even after Feliz makes that error, Lidge finds a way to still get the save.  This season Lidge has had no room for error.

Six blown saves in 18 chances so far this season after a 41 for 41 regular season in 2008.

Is it time for a change?  Probably not a permanent one.  I think it wouldn’t hurt to let Madson close for a couple of weeks and let Lidge figure things out though.

Come playoff time, the Phillies need Romero, Madson, and Lidge at the end of the night shortening games like they did last year.  Two of the three is not good enough.

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Philadelphia Phillies on the Market for Pitching Help

Overshadowed by their recent seven-game winning streak is the fact that the Philadelphia Phillies are on the market for a desperately needed starting pitcher.  The recent injury and possible season-ending surgery to starter Brett Myers has left a hole in the rotation that the Phillies need to fill if they are going to successfully defend their World Series title.

Lots of speculation has been running rampant about who the Phillies are interested in acquiring.  There is Jake Peavy, who the Padres have been trying to unload since the offseason, Erik Bedard, and, more recently, rumors of Roy Oswalt have popped up.

I think most Phillies fans would be excited if they woke up one morning to hear on Sportscenter that the Phillies had acquired Jake Peavy.  I am not one of those fans.  Peavy has no desire to go to a big market team. 

I’m not sure if that is because he prefers to stay away from the constant rush of a town like New York, Chicago, or Philadelphia or because he is worried about dealing with the added pressure and constant media attention of playing in a town that expects to win.  It is worrisome that it could be the latter.

Peavy is pitching in quite possibly the most pitcher-friendly park and worst offensive division in all of Major League Baseball.  Yet, his ERA for the 2009 season is 4.10.  Move him to the NL East and Citizens Bank Park and we may see his ERA jump close to 5.00 or higher.

Erik Bedard might be made available by Seattle if the Mariners continue to fall out of contention.  Currently, they are only 5.5 games out of first place.  They could find themselves to be sellers by the end of June.

However, it has been documented by others that Bedard can be a cancer in the clubhouse.  Although, I think the Phillies have enough strong personalities in the locker room to keep him in check, there is no need to take the risk on Bedard.  Not to mention, they would also probably have to give up quite a bit for a lefty of his potential.

I have always been a big fan of Roy Oswalt.  I think he is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, but is he really available?  It seems unlikely to me.  Houston owner Drayton McLane is a big fan of Oswalt.  Most speculate that there is about a zero chance of McLane agreeing to deal Oswalt.

The Phillies could look internally for help.  In AAA, they have Kyle Kendrick and Carlos Carrasco as possible options.

Kendrick is 4-4 with a 4.05 ERA in 11 starts for Lehigh Valley.  He has pitched pretty well at times this season, but the organization would like him to remain in AAA and continue to develop his offspeed pitches.

Carrasco is considered to be the Phillies top minor league pitching prospect.  His transition to AAA in 2009 has been a shaky road so far.  He has posted a 5.14 ERA in 11 starts.  Although he has struggled, he also has struck out 63 batters in 61 innings, demonstrating some of his electric stuff.  All signs say that he is not ready for the big show just yet.

Rookie Anthony Bastardo was pulled up from AA to make his Major League debut earlier this week and pitched a great game, admittedly against the offensively challenged San Diego Padres.  In AA, he was converted from the bullpen to a starter and made 5 starts.  He posted a 1.82 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 34.2 innings of work.

The Phillies could choose to roll the dice with Bastardo and hope they catch lighting in a bottle for the rest of the season, similar to what Kyle Kendrick gave them in 2007 when he went 10-4 in 20 starts for Philly.  Most likely, the Phillies will give Bastardo a couple of starts and see what he gives them.

If Bastardo proves not to be the answer, the Phillies are going to need to make a trade.  The question is, with who?

There is one potential trading partner that nobody is talking about yet that could be a very viable option, the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles have some good young arms in their system, but there is a veteran on their team that could make a lot more sense for the Phillies.  That player is Jeremy Guthrie.  This season he has posted a 4.86 ERA in 11 starts.  Last season he finished 10-12 with a 3.63 ERA.  The O’s are playing in possibly the best offensive division in baseball.  Move Guthrie to the National League and he might thrive.

The Orioles have a future need at third base with Melvin Mora nearing the end of his career.  The Phillies could offer a deal involving Jason Donald.  The deal makes sense for both teams.  Donald is blocked for at least one more year in the Phillies organization, and if Pedro Feliz continues to hit, possibly longer.

A deal involving Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Donald as the centerpieces would give the Phillies a solid starter in their rotation to replace Myers and wouldn’t cost as many prospects as Peavy, Bedard, or Oswalt would.

Raul Ibanez vs. Pat… Pat… What Was That Guy’s Name Again?

I was wrong.  I was so very wrong.  I want to apologize for my mistake.

When word started to spread that the Phillies had acquired Raul Ibanez I read all the on-line debates that started on message boards everywhere. Many fans were not happy with the signing of Ibanez, and the subsequent departure of fan-favorite Pat Burrell that the signing signaled.  Some said that the lineup was too lefty heavy now. 

Others said that Pat Burrell was a better left fielder than Ibanez.  Fans argued that Pat was slow, but so was Raul. Many also argued that Raul would never match Pat’s power numbers.

My take on this?  During the offseason I argued that it was a good signing and would give the Phillies lineup a slight upgrade and a little more consistency.

And I was wrong.

It was not a good signing. It was a fantastic signing! Ibanez has far exceeded my expectations.

All the complaints that fans had in the offseason have faded away.

The lineup is not too lefty heavy. Phillie faithful were worried that Charlie Manuel would bat Utley, Howard, and Ibanez one right after the other. This would give opposing teams the chance to match up lefties easily against the heart of the lineup in the late innings.  Manuel only made that mistake in the opening series of the season.

Since then most games have seen Werth batting fifth and Ibanez hitting sixth. Ibanez has also batted third on days Utley had off.

I almost laughed out loud when I heard people trying to argue the merits of Pat Burrell in left field versus Raul Ibanez. They were quick to point out Pat’s fielding percentage of .991 in 2008.  Raul sported a .984 fielding percentage last season.

Just comparing the fielding percentage was a case of finding a statistic that superficially supports your argument. When you look closer at the fielding statistics you will also notice that Ibanez had 302 put outs compared to Burrell’s 204 in 2008. That points out two things. 

First, Ibanez was in the field more than Burrell. 

Burrell was consistently pulled out of games in the late innings in favor of a better defensive player. Second, did the Mariners just have a lot more balls hit to left field than the Phillies or was Ibanez simply getting to more balls than Burrell?  I would say the latter.

This thought has played out already early in the year.  Time and time again we have seen Ibanez make some great plays in the field and get to balls that we could only have dreamt of Burrell reaching. 

While it’s true that Pat didn’t make many errors in the field, with his concrete-embedded feet he also didn’t get to many balls outside of a 15-foot radius from his position.

As far as on the basebaths, Ibanez earns the check here, too. Burrell had zero stolen bases in ‘05, ‘06, ‘07, and ‘08. Ibanez has four already this year. Stolen bases do not tell the whole story.  Ibanez is by no means a speedster on the base paths. 

However, there is one thing he does really well that will never show up in a boxscore.  He can go from first to third on a single. Burrell’s only hope of making it from first to third was during a home-run trot.

One place that Burrell enthusiasts thought for sure they had the argument in the bag was in the power department.  Burrell hit 33 home-runs in 2007 and 30 in 2008.  Ibanez had only ever topped 30 one time in his career. That came back in 2006.

Ibanez never had the opportunity to play in a home-run friendly field like Citizen’s Bank Park. He has hit 13 out of the park already this season. Eight of those have come at home. It seems likely that he will equal Pat’s 30 from last season and maybe even surpass that number. 

He is also batting .357, has a .425 on base percentage, and has a ridiculous .714 slugging percentage.

The numbers don’t say it all though. This season Ibanez has been the clutch hitter the Phillies were missing in some of their long offensive droughts last season. As I watch the Phillies this year, there is nobody on the team I would rather see coming to the plate with runners on base in the late innings than Raul Ibanez.

Not only that, but when the Phillies are behind, he consistently seems to get on base late in games when the Phillies most need base runners. He just seems to always come through when the Phillies need him the most.

None of us fans wanted to see Pat Burrell leave Philadelphia.  He will always have a special place with fans for all the time he spent here and for being a part of the magical 2008 World Series Champions. 

However, the performance of Raul Ibanez on the field is making the slight pain many fans felt when Burrell was let go fade away a little more with each passing game.

 

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Phillies Starters Struggling. Is It Time For A Change?

 

On Friday night against the New York Mets, Chan Ho Park continued his struggles in the 2009 season.  As I watched Park give up yet another home-run, something that has become a trademark of this staff, it got me thinking.  When was the last time a starting pitcher was acquired by the Phillies and actually got better while with the team or even maintained their level of play?

In 2005, Jon Lieber signed a free agent contract with the Phillies.  He spent three seasons with the Phillies compiling a record of 29-30 with an ERA north of 4.50.

There was the signing of Adam Eaton.  For Phillie fans I don’t think I need to elaborate much on this one.  At $24 million it was easily the worst signing of Pat Gillick’s time as the GM.  In fact, the Phillies paid Adam Eaton nearly eight million dollars this year to just go away.

What about the trade for Freddy Garcia?  In 2006, the Phillies gave up prospects Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez for Garcia.  While fans were excited about the Phillies finally acquiring a proven ace, he never did live up to expectations.  Garcia made only 11 starts before being placed on the DL in June of 2007.  He picked up only one win in those 11 starts, a win commonly known as “the ten million dollar win” in reference to his ten million dollar salary.

In 2008, Joe Blanton came to the Phillies midseason.  He was 4-0 in 13 starts with a 4.20 ERA with the Phillies.  Now in 2009, after a full offseason in the Phillies program, he has started 0-2 with an 8.41 ERA and will be making his fifth start today.

During the offseason, the Phillies signed free agent Chan Ho Park.  Park has amassed an 8.57 ERA through his first four starts with the Phillies.

What is the one constant amongst these starters?  Pitching coach Rich Dubee.  Dubee is in his 5th season as the pitching coach of the Phillies.  The only starter who has come to Philly and had any degree of success during his time here has been Jamie Moyer.  I wouldn’t really credit Dubee with any of Jamie’s success.  Moyer has been in the game so long, what is any pitching coach in the league going to tell him that he doesn’t already know?

I am not about to lay all the blame at the feet of Rich Dubee.  However, maybe it is time to make a change in an attempt to alter the fortune of the starting pitching in Philadelphia.

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Phillies-Mets: Let the Fireworks Begin

I can feel the excitement already.  This weekend the New York Mets come to town to renew what has become a heated rivalry in the past few years with the Philadelphia Phillies.  The rivalry may not have the storied past of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry yet, but in recent years you can find fans just as passionate about it. 

It really got started a few years ago with Jimmy Rollins calling the Phillies “the team to beat.”  Last season he predicted the Phillies would win 100 games (including the postseason, they won 103).  This offseason, Cole Hamels was caught on radio referring to the Mets as “choke artists.”  I’m sure his comment will be brought up over and over again this year each time the two teams square off.

We all know the story of the past two years.  It is an enjoyable little tale about a team choking away what seemed to be insurmountable leads the past two Septembers.

This offseason, the Mets went about rebuilding their bullpen.  They added J.J. Putz as their setup man and signed K-Rod to be the new closer.

After remaking their bullpen, the Mets became the trendy pick in preseason to win the NL East.  Many “experts” have even picked the Mets to win the World Series.

Although neither team is currently in first place, most expect both teams to be battling it out for the division title at the end of the year.  Both teams has had their share of struggles throughout the early going.

Philly starters haven’t been at their best.  Cole Hamels has been hurt three different times already this season.  Brad Lidge blew a save.  The offense struggled at the beginning of the year, but has since been more consistent.

The Mets’ bats have struggled.  They have blown a few games because of shoddy defense. Starters not named Johan Santana have a 6.64 ERA so far this year.

The weekend series will not feature the staff aces. 

Friday night is Pelfrey versus Park. 

Saturday will be Jamie Moyer taking the mound for the Phillies against Oliver Perez, who with his 9.31 ERA, may be on his final chance with the Major League squad. 

Hopefully Philly fans will come loud and proud on Saturday.  The series wraps up on Sunday with John Maine facing off against Joe Blanton.

Between the two, at this point in the season, the Phillies are looking more like a champion.  They have had nine come-from-behind victories already this year, showing their grit once again.  Last weekend, the Phillies went into Florida and swept the first-place Marlins with two comeback wins and a Sunday thumping.

I will be glued to the action all weekend.  Hopefully the Phillies make a statement for the second weekend in a row and remind the Mets who the defending World Series Champions are.  One thing is for sure: the Phillies and Mets rarely leave viewers disappointed.

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