Ben Revere Now the Center of Attention for Philadelphia Phillies

Ben Revere’s energy and enthusiasm has sparkled since the day the Phillies traded for their new center fielder back in December.

His Twitter account soon became a hit amongst fans, gaining a whole set of new followers from Philadelphia. He always seems to have an opinion about something.

Some are already saying that the addition of Revere makes it feel like the high-speed and exuberant personality of Shane Victorino never really left.

That may be true, but Phillies fans will soon see that on the field, the story will be a lot different.

After the trade of Victorino last July, the Phillies knew they would need a replacement for 2013.

The rest of 2012 saw John Mayberry, Jr. playing a lot in center, which the team knew wouldn’t be a viable option moving forward.

Enter Revere.

The Phillies acquired Revere on December 6, dealing pitchers Vance Worley and Trevor May to Minnesota to get their new center fielder.

If Revere feels like a third or fourth option, it’s because he probably was.

The Phillies were certainly interested in B.J. Upton, who ended up in Atlanta. They were interested in Angel Pagan, who ended up staying in the bay as a San Francisco Giant.  Michael Bourn waited the entire off-season out before signing with Cleveland.

 

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. knew he had to concoct a trade by some point in November.

Some will say the Phillies overpaid to get Revere.

Worley was a valuable option in the Phillies’ rotation, but he probably would have been a tad costly with regards to arbitration numbers coming up over the next few years. May was a highly touted prospect that flamed out in 2012 but still has some promise.

The general consensus seems to be that the Phillies might have overpaid a bit, but that the price was the going rate for a young center fielder, one that will be under team control through the 2017 season.

So what exactly can the Phillies expect from Revere?

Well, for starters, he won’t be a home-run hitter like Victorino was. In fact, Revere has yet to hit a homer in 989 career at-bats.

That said, the Phillies are not paying Revere to hit homers.

They’re paying him to be an above-average defensive player (something they couldn’t get with anybody on the roster before), a high-contact hitter and a base stealer.

 

Revere finished 2012 with a .294 average, .333 on-base percentage and a .342 slugging percentage. What jumps out there is the high-average and low on-base combination. Revere does not walk often, clocking in at 5.2 percent of the time, among the bottom of the barrel for qualified outfielders last year. On the flip side, Revere’s strikeout rate was fourth best amongst qualified outfielders. When Revere swings the bat, he makes contact 92.6 percent of the time, which was third highest amongst all players in 2012.

 

This was not a fluke, as he posted a very similar number in 2011.

When the Phillies acquired Revere, the debate obviously began about whether or not he would be the team’s leadoff hitter.

For now, that does not appear to be an option.

Jimmy Rollins is firmly cemented as the team’s leadoff man. Rollins saw 3.72 pitches per plate appearance last year, while Revere saw 3.61. Neither is really a heart-stopping number for a leadoff hitter, but Rollins has been there for pretty much all of his career, and a change does not seem to be coming any time soon.

What Revere also brings to the Phillies is youth.

That should not be a lost factor here.

Revere will turn 25 in May, and on a team with an aging core, that will help, since the Phillies are low on MLB-ready position prospects. Tommy Joseph and Roman Quinn come to mind, but neither would is likely to crack the starting lineup until 2015. The acquisition of Revere gives the Phillies a young guy that they can count on.

The Phillies may have added the younger version of a guy who was on their roster last year: Juan Pierre.

The similarities are evident.

Revere’s last two years (his age 23 and 24 seasons), he hit .281/.322/.327 and averaged 37 steals. Pierre had stronger on-base numbers and a bit more power, hitting .307/.358/.377 from 2001-2003, while averaging 53 steals. That said, it’s an easy (and maybe somewhat lazy) comparison. Revere, like Pierre in his prime, is a fast outfielder that can cover a lot of ground, steal bases and hit the ball without striking out a lot.

 

 

Revere has played all three outfield spots but will undoubtedly play in center for the Phillies. He doesn’t have a rocket arm and sometimes takes a bad route to a ball here and there, but he should be competent enough to man the position. His UZR/150 last year in center was -2.1, but he rated very well in center in 2011 when he played a larger set of games there, with a 15.1 number.

Maybe the most interesting aspect of the trade is that Revere posted a 3.4 WAR last year, while B.J. Upton, the man the Braves have given $75.25 million to, had a 3.3 WAR last year in Tampa Bay.

The Phillies were certainly very happy to deal from a position of strength (pitching) to get something they desperately needed (a young, controllable outfielder).

Now it’s time to see if Ben will become a revered figure in Philadelphia.

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Roy Halladay Hoping to Return to Ace Form for Philadelphia Phillies in 2013

For the first two years in Philadelphia, Phillies fans grew to know Roy Halladay as nothing other than a perfectionist with a robot-like work ethic and steely determination that few pitchers in Major League history have possessed. Suffice to say, 2012 was a lot different for Halladay, who struggled through a season wrought with injuries and performance not up to the high standards Halladay has set for himself throughout his career.

Halladay and his fellow pitchers (and catchers) took to the field for the first time last week in Clearwater, Florida, with the rest of the squad joining this past weekend. It’s safe to say that Halladay expects 2013 to be a lot different than 2012. Yes, he will turn 36 in May, and yes, unless he goes on some sort of wild tear, the option in his contract will not vest and he will not be under contract for 2014, but those things don’t bother the right-hander.

Halladay was the first player to step to the microphone in camp last Wednesday, and he is committed to making this season a bit different.

Reports piled up last spring that Halladay’s velocity was down across the board and he just didn’t seem to have a feel for his pitches. Many didn’t want to believe the reports at first, but as the calendar flipped to May, it was obvious Halladay just did not have his best stuff. He had a 6.11 ERA in the month of May, while opponents hit .312 against him. Halladay went on the disabled list on May 29, with a strain in his lat muscle. He explained to reporters in Clearwater on Wednesday that he had trouble in his lower back heading into spring training last season, which may have led to him over-compensating and causing the injury to the latissimus dorsi, which is more of a shoulder injury than a back injury.

Medical reports aside, Halladay simply wasn’t himself. He finished the year with an 11-8 record and 4.49 ERA in 156.1 innings pitched, starting 25 games. I suppose a lot of No. 4 pitchers would be content with those numbers, but Halladay hasn’t been a backend-of-the-rotation starter in his career. His job is to be at the forefront of a Major League rotation.

The biggest sign that Halladay wasn’t himself (besides the velocity) was his control. His 2.1 BB/9 ratio didn’t match his 1.3 number from the year before, or the 1.1 number he posted in 2010. His walk rate had not been that high since 2004. He also wasn’t able to finish off hitters the way he had in the past. In 0-2 counts, opponents had a .586 OPS against Halladay. While that number doesn’t exactly jump out at you, you’d have to understand that opponents had just a .277 OPS against him in 0-2 counts in 2011. In other words, get down against Halladay in 2011, and you didn’t have a chance. Last year, you at least had a chance.

So, what about that velocity? According to Fangraphs, Halladay’s fastball averaged 90.6 MPH last year, after being at 92 MPH in 2011 and 92.6 in 2010. Last spring, Halladay was hovering around 89-90 MPH in Grapefruit League action. Suffice to say, many will be watching closely to see if Halladay can ramp it up once game action starts. If he has trouble, the questions will start to come, and if the answers are hazy, it won’t be the pain-free spring training Phillies coaches and management desire.

Close watchers of Halladay will also be watching his groundball/flyball rate. Last season, 44.7 percent of balls in play were grounders, a number that Halladay can’t repeat and expect to find success. For his career, his average is at 54.4 percent. While Citizens Bank Park isn’t exactly the bandbox everyone thinks it is (the numbers have changed significantly since the team moved the fences back), it’s still not Petco Park or Safeco Field. (Coincidentally, those parks have been moving some fences this off-season, so maybe we’re just going to see more offense across the board in 2013.)

Off the field, there’s plenty to be thinking about in regards to Halladay as well. He is in the final year of his three-year, $60-million extension he signed prior to the 2010 campaign. He would need 259 regular season innings to hit the vesting option, which just doesn’t seem likely, although 259 innings in the regular season and playoffs would be a nice number, because it would probably mean the Phillies made it deep into the postseason.

That’s where Halladay wants to be.

He’s made it clear that he doesn’t want to go anywhere. He would prefer to retire as a Phillie. That said, this season will be the ultimate wait-and-see approach, in regards to Halladay’s future. Any sort of talk, contractually, likely won’t come up until after the season, but Halladay’s fine with that.

On the field, he is trying to return to his old form. He wants to be the centerpiece of the Phillies rotation once more. The goal for Halladay now is to have a collective amnesia about last season. Even if he does return to his previous form, the Phillies need a lot of things to go right to make the playoffs. That said, they know full well they aren’t going very far without a healthy version of their workhorse right-hander.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Placido Polanco Not Worthy of All-Star Start

Someone is going to have to help me figure this one out.

Placido Polanco will get the starting nod at third base for the National League when the All-Star Game commences next Tuesday. He’ll do so after being overwhelmingly elected by the fans, who I assume we are supposed to trust, right?

Another story for another day, I suppose, as to whether or not fan balloting should essentially help determine who gets home field advantage in the World Series. The story here is that Polanco may become, statistically, the worst starting third baseman in the history of the All-Star Game.

As of the completion of last night’s game in Florida, Polanco is hitting .274, with a .331 on-base percentage and .346 slugging percentage. Yes, that’s right, a man with a .676 OPS is going to start in the All-Star Game. What a wondrous world we live in.

They always said it’s good to have friends in high places. The popular Polanco may have benefited from voters in St. Louis and Detroit, two places Polanco called home in his Major League career. Not to mention the 30-some-odd times Citizens Bank Park opened its doors to All-Star voting this year.

So here we are, with a player hitting just over the Mendoza line since the first of May starting the All-Star Game. It’s hard to agree with the fans on this one. They were wrong, terribly wrong about a player who seems to avoid criticism in some way, shape or form in the city of Brotherly Love.

Yet to put a hit on the board in July, the reports are now coming out that Polanco is dealing with a sore back. It’s always interesting to see how the excuses come out when somebody is in a slump. If he’s injured, then maybe he shouldn’t be playing.

While Raul Ibanez was putting up a .569 OPS in June, Polanco was putting up a .545 OPS. Two men struggling, but only one taking criticism. Meanwhile, Polanco starts in the All-Star Game next Tuesday.

It seems like Philadelphia fans have forgotten the “what have you done for me lately” motto with Polanco, who simply put, is not producing. Yet Ibanez takes criticism and Polanco is above it. Riddle me that.

Polanco did nothing wrong here. He is not boisterous or loud, not clamoring for All-Star votes like his life depends on it. This one is on the fans, and as long as they have control, they will make mistakes now and again. They’ve made one here. Rewarding a player for having one good month seems to be the description of an All-Star in this situation.

Heck, if you could combine Polanco’s April with Ibanez’s May, maybe you’d have an All-Star player on your hands. This was not a cream of the crop type year for third basemen in the National League, that’s for sure.

It’s been a bit of a strange year, with severe injuries knocking guys like David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman out of the lineup for long periods of time. Pablo Sandoval has also suffered from the injury bug, and a guy like Casey McGehee has been unable to follow up his outstanding 2010.

The pickings were certainly slim, but Polanco made things a no-contest with his April. However, Polanco’s April is not his May and June, and he coasted to an easy All-Star victory despite not producing much since the first of May. 

As much as it may pain Phillies fans to read this, Chipper Jones has had a better year at the plate than the Phillies’ third baseman. Chase Headley has put together a strong season in San Diego, but with little name recognition, the Padres’ third-sacker had little chance. That is despite posting a .306/.394/.405 season thus far.

Even Aramis Ramirez in Chicago has a stronger case than Polanco.

Polanco may become the weakest third base All-Star starter since Scott Cooper of the Boston Red Sox in 1993 and 1994.

One thing Polanco does have going for him? He has had an above-average year at third defensively, and could be on his way to winning his first ever Gold Glove at third. (He has two at second base.)

Polanco’s advanced defensive numbers are well above his career norms, and it doesn’t take much to see that he has been in position and fielding well. But, is that worthy of an All-Star bid? Not necessarily.

That said, his WAR of 1.9 is not far off of Headley’s 2.0, which suggests one thing: it’s been an awful year for third basemen in the National League. In fact, it could be one of the worst on record.

Next Tuesday, Polanco can count his lucky stars that he had a little bit of name recognition, some friends in high places, and a whole lot of votes to push him to Arizona for the Midsummer Classic. Did he deserve it? Probably not.

In a weak year for third basemen, Polanco essentially took advantage of one thing: the fans voting him in on the Internet and at the ballpark.

And this time around, fan balloting reared its ugly head and sent a man to the All-Star Game who didn’t truly deserve it.

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Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies: Ace Putting Together Better 2011 Than 2010

Don’t look now, but Roy Halladay is doing it again. Not only has his 2011 once again been fantastic—and, some would argue, machinelike—it is even better than his 2010.

Some would find it hard to believe that the Philadelphia ace could do any better than a perfect game and no-hitter in the same season. Alright, he hasn’t done that yet in 2011, but overall, he has been more dominating thus far in 2011 than he was in 2010.

On Saturday Halladay finished off his former team, the Toronto Blue Jays, in quick and efficient fashion for his sixth complete game of the season. Exactly one-third of Halladay’s starts in 2011 have ended with him putting together a complete game.

He is now 11-3 with a 2.44 ERA after finishing 2010 with a 21-10 record and a 2.44 ERA. Looking deeper into the numbers, though, one can get a true appreciation of what Halladay has done in 2011.

His K/BB ratio of 7.71 is best in the Major Leagues, and would shatter his career-best 7.3 number which he posted in 2010. Just to show how dominant Halladay is, take a look at the numbers in this category closely. The second closest in this category is his teammate, Cole Hamels, at 5.24. No, that’s not a mistake. He has been that good.

His control has been impeccable, and he is striking out batters at a higher rate than ever. All the while, Halladay is doing so while even being slightly less lucky than last season’s .290 BABIP. He has a BABIP of .302 in 2011.

Halladay’s sabermetric numbers are all trending in his favor, including his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) number, which is at 2.20 in 2011 after being at 3.01 in 2010. One could truly make the case that the only difference in Halladay’s game this year is that his strikeout numbers have gone up.

Take a glance at the statistics, and the WHIP, walk, and hits numbers are just about the same. He could thank the change-up that he has developed under pitching coach Rich Dubee for his increase in strikeouts. While Halladay’s fastball is still decent, it’s the cutter and change-up that have helped him immensely in 2011.

Meanwhile, SIERA, a statistic developed by Baseball Prospectus’ Matt Swartz, also shows how much better Halladay has been in 2011 than 2010. SIERA “estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck.” Last year, Halladay’s SIERA of 2.93 was very strong, but his 2.68 number this year is, simply put, sparkling.

It’s almost hard to describe what Halladay is doing anymore because his numbers are just so absolutely impressive. He is on his way to another All-Star Game, the eighth of his illustrious career. There are few things left for Halladay to prove, few questions left to be answered.

He would obviously love to win a World Series ring, something he has a very good chance of doing in Philadelphia. He could try to make up a new pitch on his own and probably be pretty good at it. He could try to be a better hitter, although teammate Cliff Lee seems to have him beat there.

Kidding aside, Halladay is a pleasure to watch every fifth day. Once in a while, you can put the stats aside and simply enjoy watching the man work in a nearly robotic manner. But when you do have to pull out the stats, they do back him up pretty nicely.

Amazingly, he’s been better this year than last, save for the perfect game and no-hitter, which he is lacking in 2011.

But hey, you never know when Halladay will pull one of those tricks out of his hat.

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Phillies’ Bullpen Performing Above Expectations in 2011

When Brad Lidge struck out Tampa Bay‘s Eric Hinske to give the Philadelphia Phillies a World Series victory in 2008, it capped off a season in which the Philadelphia bullpen performed extraordinarily well.

In fact, you could have called Lidge’s performance “perfect”. Big contributions from Chad Durbin, J.C. Romero, and Ryan Madson certainly helped the Phillies on their way to the title, as well. They were all part of a fantastic bullpen, something that a team needs these days if it wants to be successful.

Fast forward to 2011, with the Phillies’ bullpen facing many questions heading into spring training.

The questions were valid: Would the team miss Brad Lidge? Who was on the disabled list to start the year? Would the team get anything out of Antonio Bastardo?  If not, would they be able to find a lefty to perform in Bastardo’s place?

Early returns say “no” to missing Lidge and “yes” to finding an effective lefty.

Those are fortunate outcomes for the Phillies, who have been able to put up the most wins in the majors this year, with 40.

They can thank their bullpen.

Incredibly, the Phillies are 29-2 when leading after seven innings. The starters are going deep into games, and the relievers are doing their jobs. The bullpen as a whole ranks fourth in baseball with a 3.02 ERA.

Ryan Madson himself has 15 saves and has blown just one, last Thursday against the Chicago Cubs. Overall, thanks to Madson, the Phillies have the fewest blown saves in baseball, with two. Furthermore, Madson has appeared in 29 games, posted a 2.17 ERA, and struck out 32 in 29 innings while walking only nine—five of those were intentional.

There is no question that he is setting himself up for a hefty payday this off-season.

There have been two important unsung heroes in the Philadelphia bullpen this year, as well. The first is Bastardo, who has worked himself into the primary left-handed reliever role. The other is Michael Stutes, who impressed many during spring training but began the year in AAA.

Bastardo is 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA and has a strong 10.8 K/9 ratio. He would like to cut down on his walks, and his .170 BABIP is likely unsustainable. However, he is striking guys out, and that’s been vital to his success.

Bastardo is also throwing his slider a lot more often than he has in previous years—it’s finally become a valuable pitch for Bastardo, who was essentially a one-pitch pitcher when he was last in the majors.

Stutes, meanwhile, came to the big club in late April when veteran reliever Jose Contreras (who has also been efficient this year) went on the disabled list.

It will be hard to send Stutes back to the minors if he continues pitching as he has been. In 21 games, Stutes has pitched 18.2 innings and has an unbelievable 10.13 K/9 ratio to go along with his 2.41 ERA.

There is another side to the story, as there is with anything else in baseball.

The Phillies are in the middle of the pack in WHIP, although this is mitigated by the face that they’re tied for the league lead in intentional walks by relievers. They are also in the bottom five in K/BB ratio, and, it’s unlikely that a lot of these relievers will be able to keep up their low BABIPs throughout the season.

That said, the bullpen has a lot fewer problems than many other teams.

The walk problems start with Danys Baez and J.C. Romero, players that may not even make the playoff roster.

Romero has been a complete disaster in 2011, although Charlie Manuel has mismanaged Romero and forced him to face right-handers too often.

Baez’ lone claim to fame in a Phillies uniform is pitching five innings in the team’s victory against the Cincinnati Reds in the 19-inning affair a few weeks back.

If Lidge comes back healthy, and if Madson and Contreras continue to perform the way they have been, the Phillies will certainly have a formidable bullpen for the playoffs.

After all, guys like Baez and Romero simply won’t be used in tight situations come October. For now, they are able to mop up innings, though Romero has had a tough time doing even that.

The Phillies could also be in the market for a left-handed reliever by the trade deadline, but that’s another story for another day. 

For now, the story is this: The Philadelphia bullpen has exceeded expectations this season. There will likely be a drop-off at some point, but those are the ebbs and flows of a Major League season.

For now, you mess with the Phillies’ bull(pen), and you get the horns.

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Ryan Howard’s Declining Numbers: Reason to Worry for Philadelphia Phillies?

Despite the fact that he hit his 13th home run of the season last night against the Los Angeles Dodgers, it’s hard to watch Ryan Howard and admit that he’s performing well in 2011.

Truth is, with a $125 million extension set to kick in next season, Howard is not playing like a superstar this year. Sure, it’s hard to lay blame at Howard’s feet for the contract itself.

After all, he wasn’t the one who had the final say in his negotiations (point to agent Casey Close).

He didn’t force the Phillies to give him that money. That decision lies at the feet of General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr., and time will tell whether or not it’s worth it. Plenty has already been written about that contract, seeing that it was given to him last April, but it’s time to face the facts.

Howard is not a superstar player, and it’s hard to imagine a world where he is worth that money. In fact, he’s become downright frustrating to watch this season.

Where has the power gone? More importantly, where has the patience gone? A 15.3 percent walk rate in his MVP year in 2006 and a 16.5 percent walk rate in 2007 has dipped to just 9.7 percent this year after a dismal 9.5 percent last year.

He often looks confused at the plate, not more evident than the past few nights at Citizens Bank Park. In what world should we be happy with someone who has a .325 on-base percentage and has hacked at pitches in the next county over the last few games? How can we be happy that he has an .803 OPS, a year after he posted a career-low .859 OPS in 2010?

It’s not a shock that he is on the decline. At 31 years old, Howard isn’t getting any younger. The Phillies are getting old quickly, and they know their time to win is right now.

That being said, Howard is such a key portion for the team’s future, with an extension yet to kick in that runs through 2016, with a team option for 2017.

How could a player with a Rookie of the Year in 2005 and MVP in 2006 be fading so fast? Is it that easy? Is he gone forever?

Not likely. May was a very ugly stretch for Howard, when he posted a .208/.317/.434 slash line. June has started no better, even with Howard hitting a homer last night. More alarmingly, he has hit .225/.271/.325 against left-handers, making him all but useless against southpaws.

He is yet to hit a home run against a lefty this season. Therefore, there are certainly reasons for concern. As Howard has gotten older, pitchers have made adjustments. It appears he has been unable to make them himself. He still has a .291 BABIP this season, so throw out most of the arguments that the defensive shift is taking away from his numbers.

The adjustment numbers are staggering. In 2009, Howard posted a 1.064 OPS against a starting pitcher in his third at-bat of the game against them. In 2010, it was at .904.

How about this season?

In his third at-bat against a starting pitcher this year, his OPS is .464. Yes, you read that right. He is 6-for-43 with five walks against a starter in his third at-bat in a game against them this year. The adjustments are being made on one side, but Howard is not adjusting on his end.

Yes, the .161 BABIP might have something to do with that, but the .255 on-base percentage is appalling.

He is also essentially utterly failing to hit the ball the opposite way, something he did so well earlier in his career. He appears to be trying to pull everything, and he’s pulling everything all right, directly into the shift. He’s almost become predictable at this point, and that’s not a good thing.

The shift has become a serious weapon because he fails to hit the ball to left field often enough anymore.

His career is far from over. Let’s understand that. And, a lot of the statistics, despite the negative mood of this very article, say that Howard will probably bounce back eventually. After all, he had a .911 OPS in April and drove in 27 runs, looking like one of the best players in baseball.

He is going through a bad stretch right now, as is the entire Philadelphia offense, and this may be a bit of a reactionary opinion.

That being said, he isn’t even in the discussion anymore as one of the best first basemen in baseball, and that’s troubling. It’s likely more frustrating to many Phillies fans, knowing that they could be watching the decline of Howard even before the lengthy and costly extension kicks in next April. 

He needs to be more patient. He needs to take more pitches. He needs to not be afraid of hitting the ball the other way. The numbers show that Howard has just eight opposite field hits this season. In his MVP campaign in 2006, he had 38. He’s far off the pace, and that is a bad sign.

When Howard is hitting the ball the other way, he is very dangerous. Teams have to change their shifts around, and he becomes less predictable.

Right now, it will be more of the same if he cannot make the adjustments.

On the bright side, his luck will likely improve in terms of home runs, as just 18.6 percent of his fly balls are home runs this season (his career mark is at 29 percent). That being said, it’s not always about the home run ball for Howard.

There’s a long way to go in the 2011 campaign. It’s only June 9, and Howard has plenty of time to turn this around. Plenty of people will be able to forgive his poor performance in May and June if he comes up large in September and October, myself included.

Throw the contract out the window and look at what Howard is doing. It’s not fun to watch on most nights when he’s struggling. If he is able to flip the switch though, opposing pitchers will have a lot on their plate.

For their own sake, the Phillies can only hope that switch is flipped sooner rather than later.

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Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and the Best One-Two Punches in Baseball

If you’re heading into a three-game series, there are certain pitchers that may strike fear in a hitter. Now consider what might be a two-day nightmare: having to go to bat against some of the best duos in the Majors.

These are the top eight one-two punches in the Major Leagues.

To make things easier, we took a look at how the pitchers are performing this year and their recent performance over the past couple of years to devise the best one-two punches in baseball.

These types of lists are never an exact science, but think of it this way: if you’re heading into the playoffs, which two pitchers on a team would you least want to face?

If you’re facing these flamethrowers, look out. It could be a long night. Or, couple of nights.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Joe Blanton’s Injury Gives Vance Worley an Opportunity

Ever since Vance Worley made his starting debut as a Philadelphia Phillie on September 6th, 2010, there were a whole lot of early assumptions being made about the right-hander’s future.

The most prominent one? Hey, maybe this guy can be our fifth starter in 2011.

After the Phillies signed Cliff Lee in December, it seemed almost a near certainty that the Phillies would attempt to trade Joe Blanton to make room (roster-wise and salary-wise) for Worley.

Fast forward to a late-May showdown between the Phillies and Cincinnati Reds Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park. Worley will be on the mound making his third start of the season, filling in for an injured Blanton, who has been plagued by an elbow injury for a good majority of the season.

After a trip to the disabled list, Blanton returned and made two starts, but did not have the same velocity he has shown throughout his career. After routinely being able to at least touch 91 or 92, Blanton was delivering fastballs in the 85-87 MPH range in his two games against Atlanta and Florida.

Back to the disabled list for Blanton, and back to the Majors for Worley, who has been jettisoned back and forth from AAA to the Majors a couple different times already in 2011.

Blanton’s numbers have been less than impressive thus far, as he has a 5.50 ERA in six starts. But his 56.3 percent groundball percentage and high BABIP would lead you to believe he’s gotten quite unlucky on balls in play against him this season.

We’ll have to wait a while to see if Blanton gets an opportunity to right his poor and perhaps unlucky start to the season. He could out about a month, if not more, with the elbow injury.

Enter Worley, who now has a chance to grab the fifth starter’s spot and not look back. Is it possible that we have seen the last of Joe Blanton in a Phillies uniform? Well, not likely. But if Worley goes out and pitches as well as he has in his limited time early this season, how is he going to get his job back?

In his two spot starts this season, Worley went 2-0 whilst limiting the Mets and Nationals to just six hits and one run. Could that be the problem, however?

The Cincinnati offense Worley will face tonight is a heck of a lot different than the not-so-murderer’s-row featured in Washington and New York.

Worley’s .195 BABIP thus far would also lead one to believe that he has gotten the best of batted balls in play so far, and that small sample size of just 16 innings might not give us all we need to know about him.

At the very least, Worley has beaten out the much-maligned Kyle Kendrick, who doesn’t provide the strikeouts that Worley has been able to. At the very least, Worley is a better option than Kendrick because he can get the ball past hitters.

Consult Kendrick’s spot start against Colorado last week in place of the last minute scratch Blanton and you will know what we are talking about. Yes, it was a tough situation, but yes, Worley is a better option.

The good news is that Worley has done well thus far against both right-handers and left-handers, as both have struggled against him. Righties are hitting just .185 off him, while lefties are hitting just .138.

Could this just be a flash in the pan for Worley? Does that fact that hitters are just three for 31 against him in innings one through four lead anyone to believe that they can make adjustments later on in the game and/or season? Does the fact that there has been little video until now on Worley make you worry about hitters making adjustments?

Sure. All of this stuff is worrisome, at least to a degree. He’s a young guy, and often times, young guys come up, have some good luck, and then get hit around a little bit. That’s life, and that’s baseball.

But early on, Worley has been impressive. It appears that he has been able to mix in a pretty decent change-up along with his fastball, which sits in the 90-92 range.

The Phillies had little choice with this situation. Blanton was simply not ready, his cranky elbow still troubling him. Some day, he might be ready.

For now, it’s an opportunity for Philadelphia’s new favorite goggled pitcher.

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MLB: Will Derek Jeter’s Contract Be a Basis for Jimmy Rollins’ New Deal?

As the old saying goes, they don’t make ’em like they used to.

For Yankees fans, they know this very well with their shortstop and captain Derek Jeter.

Simply put, he just is not the same player that he was 10 years ago. Neither is Philadelphia’s Jimmy Rollins.

That being said, the Yankees gave Jeter a three-year, $51 million extension this offseason with a player option included for 2014. After long weeks of negotiations, the deal was done, keeping Jeter in Yankee pinstripes.

It’s not like anybody envisioned Jeter in any other uniform besides the Yankees’. What many likely did not envision was the outlandish contract that the Yankees gave to him.

Now, the Yankees find Jeter hitting .271, with a .322 on-base percentage and measly .338 slugging percentage. After last year’s .370 slugging percentage, not many would have expected much power out of Jeter. They also didn’t expect this decline.

Meanwhile, back in Philadelphia, Rollins is answering critics’ questions. Much like Jeter, many questioned this offseason what Rollins had left in the tank and where the Phillies might go without him.

Right now, Rollins is making it hard for the Phillies to envision a 2012 starting lineup without him. He has posted a .283/.370/.372 start to the season and has batted third for a majority of the campaign.

Now back in his customary lead-off spot, Rollins has produced there as well.

What may be most surprising about Rollins’ resurgence is his increased walk rate of 12.1 percent. Last year, Rolllins posted a very respectable 10.6 percent walk rate. Rollins has never been one known for his ability to take pitches, but he is doing just that right now.

Rollins has had his power years; he hit 25 home runs in 2006, had 30 in his MVP season in 2007 and 21 in 2009. In this presently constituted Philadelphia lineup, the Phillies don’t need Rollins to hit home runs.

They need him to get on base, and he is doing just that. Not many people would expect Rollins to keep up a .370 OBP for the entire season, but anything from the .350-.360 range would be a drastic improvement for a player who has a career OBP of .329.

Even when Rollins hit 21 home runs in 2009, his OBP was just .296. It might have been the most frustrating season of his career, with manager Charlie Manuel moving him up and down the Phillies’ lineup.

Now Rollins looks to settle back into the lead-off spot after batting third in a modified Phillies order for the first month of the season. With Chase Utley’s return on the horizon, the Phillies would expect their first three hitters of Rollins, Placido Polanco and Utley to produce big offensive numbers.

It brings up an interesting question. Where will Rollins play in 2012?

He makes $8.5 million this season, the final year of his contract which went into effect prior to the 2006 season. The Phillies were able to work out a relatively friendly five-year, $40 million with Rollins prior to the 2006 season, with the club option for 2011 included.

It was no surprise that the Phillies picked up Rollins’ club option well before the 2010 season, a year in advance. At the time, it appeared to be a move that showed the Phillies’ loyalty to their long-time shortstop.

Naturally, it would be a surprise for the Phillies to let Rollins go. Quite frankly, there are not many shortstops out there capable of posting a .750 OPS that also play Gold Glove defense. Unsurprisingly, Rollins is off to a good defensive start in 2011, though early numbers say Jeter has actually performed well defensively also.

Rollins is as much a Philadelphia institution as the Liberty Bell or cheesesteaks. Corny analogies aside, the Phillies need Rollins and Rollins needs the Phillies.

Since he broke into the league for a short stint at the end of the 2000 season, he hasn’t left. He has set numerous Phillies records, been to three All-Star Games, won three Gold Gloves and oh yeah, won an MVP in 2007.

There is little doubt that Rollins’ agent, Dan Lozano, will at least mention Jeter’s deal in any negotiations. However, it is doubtful that Rollins will get anything near Jeter’s deal, nor should he.

To be frank, Jeter should not have been given Jeter’s deal.

There is time for the Phillies to work out a contract with Rollins, but it’s hard to imagine any other shortstop patrolling the position for Philadelphia. The less-than-stellar free agent class this offseason includes J.J. Hardy, Yuniesky Betancourt, Rafael Furcal, Jack Wilson and Marco Scutaro.

Sure, feel free to throw Jose Reyes’ name in there, but don’t expect the Phillies to be interested in the Met.

A three-year deal in the $30-33 million range for Rollins would not be surprising, and would seem to fit both sides pretty well. Rollins will be 33 in November, and his best days, much like Jeter’s, are behind him.

Don’t expect him to get the type of contract that Jeter did, though. And don’t expect Rollins to ask for it, either. He’s going to be realistic.

A team that wears pinstripes already made a mistake with their shortstop. Now the Phillies have their turn to get a deal done with theirs.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Will Ryan Madson Become the Closer in the Near Future?

On January 18, Ryan Madson woke up to some pretty good news.

No, he was not the recipient of a new contract.

No, his wife was not expecting another child.

And no, most certainly, the Phillies had already signed Cliff Lee back in December.

It was an important day for Madson, however, a day in which reliever Rafael Soriano finalized a three-year contract with the New York Yankees to set up future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera. A $35 million payout to Soriano certainly raised eyebrows around the league, and a whole lot of questions.

Why New York, when the Yankees already have an established closer that shows no signs of letting up any time soon? More important, why so much money?

We’ve been down this road before, with guys like Francisco Cordero, Brandon Lyon and Francisco Rodriguez in past years. This offseason, Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Scott Downs and others all set themselves up very nicely financially for the next few seasons.

It now begs the question: How much is someone like Madson worth, and will he be a Phillie in 2012?

First off, it’s important to note that the Phillies hold a team option in 2012 with current closer Brad Lidge, for approximately $12.5 million.

Should the Phillies decline that, they can work out a deal with Lidge at a lesser price or they can say goodbye to the man who helped deliver a World Series title in 2008 and turn over the closer role to Madson. It would be hard to see the Phillies keeping both men in the bullpen, primarily due to cost.

It would not be prudent for the Phillies to spend approximately $20 million per year on a pair of relievers, which is likely somewhere in the neighborhood of what it would cost to pay Lidge and Madson in 2012.

It is also important to note that Madson is the lone Scott Boras client on the Phillies’ roster. The Phillies were able to work out a three-year, $12 million contract with Madson and Boras prior to the 2009 season.

However, they have had trouble with Boras in the past. The J.D. Drew saga still haunts many Phillies fans to this day. Meanwhile, Jayson Werth hired Boras towards the end of the 2010 season and finds himself in Washington with a hefty payday. Not that anybody is blaming the Phillies for overpaying Werth, though.

Boras has done his job very well and though many don’t like him, he certainly has gotten the most for his clients, a list that includes Matt Holliday, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.

Obviously, dealing with Madson will be a different animal altogether. Relievers are usually relatively unpredictable and only the best ones are rewarded with substantial contracts.

It’s safe to say that Madson is in line for one himself after posting a career-low 2.55 ERA last season. Since moving to the bullpen in 2007, Madson has pitched 269 innings, allowing just 242 hits and posting a 3.01 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

His K/9 ratio has increased each season since 2007 and was at 10.87 last year. That puts him in the discussion with guys like Benoit, Heath Bell and Brian Wilson.

The question remains, though, whether he will receive a contract like Benoit’s or Matt Thornton’s (who signed a two-year, $12 million deal with the White Sox on Sunday), or whether it will look something more like Soriano’s.

Teams seem to value closer experience, and Soriano’s 45 saves last season for Tampa Bay certainly earned him his extra loot. Indeed, Madson has been known to struggle in his career in save situations, but that is unlikely to scare many teams away.

Comparing Madson to Soriano is relevant in terms of trying to figure out what type of deal Madson might be in line for.

Since 2007, the same year Madson became a full-time reliever, Soriano has posted a .93 WHIP, far lower than Madson’s 1.20 during that same time.

If there is one thing Madson has going for him, it’s that he has been relatively healthy in the past few seasons. Despite his freak injury last season (a broken toe caused by kicking a chair after a game in San Francisco), Madson has been relatively healthy throughout the past four seasons.

Soriano and Benoit, meanwhile, have both dealt with shoulder issues. Soriano missed almost all of the 2008 season with elbow issues, and Benoit has had his fair share of injury issues throughout his career.

This much is known: The Phillies will need another big season out of Madson if they want to have success coming from their bullpen. What is not known is where Madson will be in 2012.

It is likely, though, looking at his recent performance and comparing him to other pitchers, that Madson will be worth $7 million-$9 million to some team. The Phillies, in a perfect world, would probably work out some sort of deal with Madson during the season, but the current situation would not make that feasible.

Boras has likely discussed with Madson a plan of attack, one that will include waiting to see whether or not Lidge will return to the Phillies in 2012.

For now, though, Madson will focus on trying to help the Phillies to another World Series in 2011.

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