Will Jimmy Rollins Be Sparkplug For Philadelphia Phillies In 2011?

It’s been hard to read or hear anything about the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason without the words “Cliff Lee” or “four aces” or something of the sort attached to it. Oops, it looks like this isn’t helping.

There is plenty of excitement surrounding the Phillies’ star-studded pitching rotation, but the underwhelming offensive output in 2010 might concern some, at least a bit. Forget about the departure of Jayson Werth for a moment and realize that 2010 featured below-par offensive seasons from Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins.

There is a lot to prove in 2011, at least amongst the veteran core position players on this squad. Nobody will have more to prove than Rollins. It’s not his defense that anybody is worried about. Rollins posted a UZR/150 of 12.3 last season, which, had he qualified, would have been second in the major leagues. 

While he is still an elite defensive player, Rollins’ offensive numbers have declined in the past two seasons. In 2009, he put up an ugly .250/.296/.423 season in which he temporarily lost his lead off spot in the order. Now in the final year of his contract, Rollins has a lot to prove.

He will have to prove he can still hit, run and field with the best of them. You can probably check two of those three off the list, as J-Roll can still play his position well and can still swipe a bag. What Rollins will have to prove is that he can still be worth the salary he will make this season, which comes in at $8.5 million.

To be fair, the Phillies got more than they could have hoped for when they signed Rollins to a market-friendly five-year $40 million deal prior during the 2005 season. That deal included 2011’s club option at the aforementioned $8.5 million.

In all likelihood, Rollins does not have to prove anything to anyone else. He is the second-longest tenured athlete in Philadelphia, and after Sunday’s sub-par performance by Eagle David Akers, he could find himself as the longest-tenured athlete before too long.

Rollins isn’t going anywhere. He is a Phillie for life, and he has earned it. He has been good to the Phillies on and off the field, and he has developed a unique bond with manager Charlie Manuel over the years. While he may not be the player he once was, the alternatives are clearly much worse.

The Phillies have no immediate replacement for Rollins in the minor leagues, as their top shortstop prospect Freddy Galvis is still at least two years away from contributing anything to the major leagues. His defense also makes some of Hanley Ramirez’s worst defensive seasons look Gold-Glove worthy.

The question now becomes: Can Rollins stay healthy? If so, can he contribute? Rollins endured the toughest season (medically) of his career last year, which included two trips to the disabled list for his injured right calf and another injury to his right hamstring that caused him to miss most of September.

When he was healthy, he hit a pedestrian .243 with a .320 on-base percentage and a career-low .374 slugging percentage. The silver lining may be the fact that his right side simply bothered him all season long. The switch-hitting Rollins hit a hard-to-believe .218/.297/.360 vs. right-handed pitchers, but a respectable .297/.368/.405 versus left-handers.

It’s entirely possible that Rollins just couldn’t drive the ball against his front foot from the left side last season. His low .246 BABIP might not have helped him either. If his luck improves, his numbers will likely improve as well.

By now, we know Rollins isn’t going to increase his walk rate substantially at this stage in his career, although last season’s was actually the highest of his career. He simply might just need his heath to get him going once more. At the age of 32, it would be hard to think of Rollins’ career as being near its end.

He’ll need his legs as well. He stole just 17 bases last season thanks to the injuries. As a team, the Phillies will need to run more, and Rollins is a big part of that.

Most importantly, the Phillies can ill-afford another offensive disappearing act in the postseason in 2011. The pitching will certainly help carry them, but the offense will have to do its part. The veterans have a lot to prove.

What does Rollins have to prove in 2011? We already know the Phillies will be the “team to beat.” Rollins doesn’t have to proclaim such anymore. He should start with being the shortstop to beat in 2011.

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Where Does Cole Hamels Fit Into the Philadelphia Phillies’ Future?

Before the times of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Roy Oswalt, there used to be an ace in Philadelphia that went by the name of Cole Hamels.

After the 2008 season, World Series MVP trophy and championship ring in tow, Hamels signed a three-year, $20.5 million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies that would keep him in red pinstripes through 2011.

A couple of years and three aces later, Hamels now finds himself set to begin the 2011 season as the fourth best starter on a loaded pitching staff that is expected to catapult the team into an automatic spot in the World Series.

Alright, it’s not that easy. What also won’t be easy will be re-signing Hamels to another new contract sometime soon that will keep him with the Phillies for the foreseeable future.

After the 2008 season, with Hamels set to go to arbitration, the Phillies structured a new contract that worked for both sides. The three-year deal did not touch his final year of arbitration or any of his free agent years. The deal was unique, however, in the sense that it provided Hamels with the biggest AAV (average annual value) ever on a multi-year deal for a pitcher in his first year of arbitration. 

Now the Phillies will have to work something out all over again, or take Hamels to arbitration after next season. It’s likely not something they want to have to do, but it is certainly possible. He can become a free agent after the 2012 season.

General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. has locked key pieces in, including Lee, Halladay, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley, through at least 2013. Besides Hamels, Amaro will have to make crucial decisions on numerous other players.

Jimmy Rollins is slated to be a free agent after next season. Brad Lidge has a hefty club option lined up for 2012, but the Phillies could buy him out after 2011 for just $1.5 million, which seems likely. Ryan Madson, who could be in line to close in 2012, is a free agent after 2011. Raul Ibanez will also become a free agent after 2011, but that won’t be as tough a decision as the others.

There is no question the Phillies will have money to play with, but they’ll have to use it wisely. Regarding the rotation, Halladay is signed through 2013 with a club option for 2014. Lee, with his new contract, will be here through 2015, potentially 2016, if his option vests.

Oswalt will make $16 million in 2011. The Phillies hold a club option for 2012 at the same number, but can buy Oswalt out for $2 million. Right now, it would seem like a relatively safe bet that the Phillies would do such a thing, leaving Hamels as the only truly undecided member of the 2012 rotation.

Hamels will make $9.5 million in 2011, a far cry from any of the numbers Lee, Halladay, or Oswalt will rake in. It’s pretty safe to assume that had Hamels been on the open market this offseason, he could have gotten a deal very similar to Lee’s, maybe for slightly less on the dollar side.

The Phillies’ philosophy since Pat Gillick joined the organization has been to go no longer than three guaranteed years on a contract with a starting pitcher. They have, for the most part, held to that. Lee was a special case that required the Phillies to open up the checkbook for a deal longer than they might have completed in the past. It did show a bit of a change in philosophy, but it was a special occasion.

Could Hamels be another special occasion? While many players have lauded Philadelphia as a great place to play, and Hamels has embraced the area, he’s going to be looking for money. The Phillies can’t expect to be able to go short-term with Hamels.

After a disappointing 2009, Hamels rebounded nicely in 2010. It wasn’t really a surprise. He threw a lot of innings in 2008, and ran into some bad luck in 2009. It was a bad combination for him to succeed. Last year was different, as Hamels posted a 3.06 ERA. The 12-11 record can be discarded; he received some of the worst run support in the league.

The Phillies will have to decide how to fit Hamels in to the future. It’s likely that a five-year contract could be offered. Three probably won’t be enough to keep him here. There is also no way the Phillies will get close to the same AAV that they got on Hamels’ original extension.

A three-year deal for Hamels in today’s market would, conservatively, cost the Phillies somewhere around $50-52 million. If I were Ruben Amaro, I would offer Hamels a new contract sometime next season, and structure it like so:

2012: $15 million

2013: $16.5 million

2014: $17 million

2015: $17.5 million

2016: $18 million

There, of course, would be various add-ons like Cy Young finishes, All-Star appearances, and the like. But that would be the structure, and it would be fair for both sides. It’s a five-year, $84 million deal in total, without bonuses and such. Hamels would be 33 at the end of the deal.

That deal averages out to $16.8 million in AAV, which doesn’t quite put Hamels in the upper-echelon with guys such as C.C. Sabathia, Lee, and Halladay. Something like this might not even be enough to get it done, which is why the Phillies should communicate early and often with Hamels. The Phillies, realistically, should be willing to go up to about $90 million over five years with Hamels.

If talks break down, there is always the option of trading Hamels next off-season, or even in-season, for a package built around youth. That’s something that should be off in the distance, though. The Phillies need Hamels, and Hamels needs the Philllies.

All signs would point to Hamels sticking around for a long time to come. While the super-rotation may only be in action for one season, the true ace of the Phillies’ future is Hamels.

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Years Later, Philadelphia Phillies Finally Benefit From Ed Wade

The Houston Astros will limp into Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia tonight, 54-69 and with virtually no chance to make the playoffs. 

Since the team’s World Series appearance in 2005, there’s been a lot of limping finishes in Houston.

While the Philadelphia Phillies were in the process of reaching their first post-season in 14 years in 2007, the Astros were in the final stages of a search for a new general manager.

That new GM would be Ed Wade, who had spent eight years with the Phillies as general manager, from 1998 until his firing in 2005.

And while Wade is long gone from Philadelphia, he has played a critical role in the team’s success while not stepping foot inside a Phillies office.

After the conclusion of the 2007 season, with the Phillies still looking to build towards a championship, general manager Pat Gillick consummated a trade with Wade that brought closer Brad Lidge to Philadelphia.

Forty-eight saves and a championship later, you could say that the Phillies had their way with their former GM. After all, it only took outfielder Michael Bourn, the final piece remaining from the deal in Houston, to get Lidge.

If Wade came into town early on Sunday for his team’s series against the Phillies, he could have seen another one of his trades helping out his old team.

Roy Oswalt has been nothing short of spectacular thus far for the Phillies, going 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his five starts with the team. On Sunday, he dominated the Washington Nationals, pitching seven shutout innings in a 6-0 victory.

The Phillies got him from Wade for what largely amounted to a sack of baseballs, and that’s no disrespect towards gentlemanly left-hander J.A. Happ. But to be fair, the Phillies stole Oswalt from the Astros because they were willing to pay him.

And maybe that’s the silver lining here. Maybe Wade isn’t the guy who looks like the fool in all of this.

As fans, we do not know how much Wade has been hamstrung by team owner Drayton McLane, and what influence he has had in Wade’s decisions.

There could be plenty of wheelings and dealings behind the scene that have left Wade looking like the fall man.

Days after the Oswalt trade, the New York Yankees acquired Lance Berkman from Houston in what was again a salary dump, with minimal prospects going Houston’s way.

What is important here is that the Phillies seem to have a steady working relationship with Wade in Houston. There are probably conspiracy theorists out there wondering how the Phillies got Oswalt for the price they did.

Phillies fans know this pain. Wade dealt star pitcher Curt Schilling to the Diamondbacks in 2000, in a trade that hardly ever benefited the Phillies.

While he left to low approval ratings in Philadelphia, he certainly left the team in good shape for the future. It took plenty of tweaking here and there, moves that Wade seemed incapable of in his time with the team.

When Wade stares out onto the field in this series, he’ll watch Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley, all drafted when Wade was here. While scouting director Marti Wolever can certainly take a large part of the credit for drafting those players, Wade deserves it as well.

He also hired current manager Charlie Manuel before his exit, a move that fans didn’t take much liking to in Wade’s final year here in 2005. Since then, Manuel has become a sort of folk hero in the city of Philadelphia.

Now, with the Phillies fighting for another playoff berth, they’ve gotten help from Wade once more in the form of Oswalt. Along with Hamels and ace Roy Halladay, the Phillies are hoping those three lead them deep into the post-season.

They couldn’t have done it without Wade, who seems to be helping the Phillies more these days since he stopped collecting paychecks from them.

Give Wade credit. In many ways, he was able to help set the Phillies up for this magical run they have had in the past few seasons.

But as fans in Houston now know, many of his moves are perplexing. Don’t worry, Houston. Maybe some day he’ll help you out, even if he’s not getting paid to.

 

 

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Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies, Stars In: The Return of the Slider

Last Thursday night, in the midst of the Philadelphia Phillies’ comeback against Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Jonathan Broxton, Dodger manager Joe Torre came to the mound to speak with his closer.

Television cameras picked up what Torre was mouthing to Broxton. Simply put, Torre asked, “Do you trust your stuff?”

Minutes later, meltdown completed and Phillies victory in the bag, Broxton sulked from the mound. The Dodgers had just lost a seven run lead with two innings to play.

Unfortunately, it’s a feeling that fans of many teams go through during a season. When the man known as the “closer” doesn’t close, it’s ugly.

It’s a feeling many Phillies fans have experienced over the past two seasons with Brad Lidge.

Often times, there have probably been people yelling at their own television sets to Lidge, screaming, along with a few obscenities mixed in, “Do you trust your stuff?”

For Lidge, 2009 was an unmitigated disaster. Mark McGwire would be proud to know we won’t be talking about the past in this article.

This is about the present, and the final month and a half of the 2010 baseball season.

While the Phillies will likely get Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back in the lineup this week, and while quality starting pitching is paramount, many teams only go as far as their bullpen allows. The Phillies experienced that first hand in 2008 when Lidge delivered perfection, 48 saves in 48 opportunities including the postseason.

Since then, things for Lidge have not gone as smoothly. As recently as two weeks ago, plenty questioned Phillies manager Charlie Manuel’s decision to continue trotting Lidge out there in save situations.

On July 31, Lidge allowed a three-run walk off home run to Ryan Zimmerman as the Nationals stole a 7-5 victory from the Phillies. Suffice to say, that sinking Groundhog Day feeling was there again.

These days, with all the advancements in baseball statistics and data tracking, few things are more impressive than the PitchFX tool available on numerous websites. A few clicks here and there and you’ve got yourself a bunch of data about what a pitcher threw, where he threw it, what kind of break the pitch had, and so on.

A look at the chart from that fateful night in Washington D.C. paints a sad picture for Lidge, pitches scattered every which way around the strike zone. The end result looks like target practice if you gave someone a gun for the first time and then blindfolded them.

That night finished off an ugly July for Lidge, one in which he blew two saves, posted an ERA of 6.00, and walked ten while striking out ten. It also finished off a July in which Lidge threw 89 fastballs and 87 sliders. 

Everyone knows the slider is Lidge’s best pitch. When Lidge is on, it’s usually because his slider is on.

August has been a different story for Lidge.

Thus far, in his seven August appearances, Lidge has thrown the slider 55 times and the fastball 27 times, an astounding 67.1 percent of his deliveries resulting in his nasty breaking ball.

In his August 11 appearance against the Dodgers, which looked like Lidge’s best outing of the year, he threw eleven pitches. Nine of them were sliders. The end result was an easy-as-pie 9th inning and Lidge’s 15th save of the season. He has since added one more.

In August alone, Lidge has struck out seven and walked none, racking up six saves.

Does Lidge’s performance hinge on the success of the slider?

Last year, Lidge’s worst season of his career, he threw the fastball just over 50 percent of the time. In 2008’s perfect season, it was just 43.4 percent of the time. This year, he has thrown the fastball 41.6 percent of the time, which would be the lowest mark of his career if it holds through the end of the year. 

As Lidge gets older, he must also become wiser. He does not have the same velocity he used to have on his fastball. Indeed, the numbers show he has averaged 92.2 MPH on his fastball this season, down from an average of 95.4 MPH just three seasons ago.

Through natural wear and tear, a few nicks here and there, and age, he just can’t get the fastball to the same velocity as he used to.

However, the slider is Lidge’s great equalizer. He is still an above-average strikeout pitcher, posting an 11.2 K/9 rate this season. Control has been a problem for Lidge. Maybe it was all in the over-use of the fastball which he had trouble locating. 

Now, as the pennant race heats up, the Phillies must hope that Lidge can deliver down the stretch.

It’s not 2008.

He won’t be perfect this year.

However, a large part of the Phillies’ success in September (and hopefully October) hinges on their closer.

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Philadelphia Phillies Have Become among the Best on the Basepaths

Over the past few seasons, the Phillies have been very good at a lot of different things.

The defense? Spectacular. The power numbers? Amazing. The bullpen? Pretty good, despite Brad Lidge’s 2009 meltdown. The Phillies have also been very good at something else the past few seasons: baserunning.

Yes, we’re talking about baserunning, and it’s the elephant in the room that some managers don’t want to really speak of. In a day and age where it seems like many teams sit back and wait for the long ball, the Phillies have helped support their already capable offense with impressive numbers on the bases.

However, 2009 was a bit of a down year in terms of sheer volume of stolen bases.

The quick and dirty explanation? Jimmy Rollins’ .296 OBP often led Charlie Manuel to hold back Shane Victorino from running when he reached base. The reasoning? Manuel didn’t want to see the Phillies run into outs with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez coming up in the batting order.

Victorino went on to steal just 25 bases in 2009, down from his 36 steals in 2008 and 37 in 2007.

Meanwhile, Rollins had just 31 steals, and was caught eight times. He had 47 in 2008 and 41 in 2007. Now, with Rollins’ proclamation that he wants to steal 50 bases in 2010, baserunning conversation has been on the forefront at spring training.

Plenty of the Phillies’ success on the bases in 2010 rides on Rollins. Thankfully for the Phillies and Manuel, there are many other capable runners on this team, which can translate to success on the basepaths.

Thanks to our friends at Baseball Prospectus, we have various stats to look at while trying to sum up the baserunning debate.

EqBRR is a relatively reliable stat that “measures the number of runs contributed by a player’s advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table.”

In a day and age where many people question the use of sabermetrics, it seems as if the people at BP have created a valuable stat, because it has been rather consistent.

While the Phillies were 11th in the majors in EqBBR in 2009, they were second in the league in 2008 and tops among all teams in 2007. Many give credit to Davey Lopes for turning around the team’s baserunning fortunes. But the Phillies were also ranked third in 2006, a year before Lopes got here.

Don’t underestimate Lopes’ impact, however. If anything, Lopes has been able to make the Phillies a smarter team on the bases. They rarely make mistakes.

In 2007, they set a record for best stolen base percentage of any team in MLB history, with an 87.9 percent success rate. Last year, they led the league in stolen base percentage once more, at 86 percent. And while they stole less than previous years, they stole effectively.

A lot of people call Joe Maddon a brilliant manager. We’ll never forget the epic moment when Maddon staged the five-man infield in the 2008 World Series.

On national television, he looked like he was directing and preparing a Union charge against the Confederates. People seem to love Maddon because he diverges from the norm.

The Rays were picked off 23 times last year as a team, most among anyone in the majors. While this at least shows a dedicated appreciation to a return of the art of the stolen base, it also shows a bit of recklessness on the bases on the Rays’ part.

Efficiency reigns supreme in the baserunning debate. Teams like Tampa Bay are only hurting themselves with miscues while trying to steal. While they led the league with 176 steals last season, the Rays were also caught 47 times. It’s an advantage to have gifted and athletic players such as Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton, but the Rays are not using them to the best of their abilities.

While half the battle is having fast, talented, and efficient baserunners, the coaching staff and manager are also vital to a team’s success on the bases. The Phillies have lucked into both. Rollins, Victorino, Utley, and Werth are all above-average baserunners.

And, as long as the stats and the on-field evidence continue to prove it, the Phillies have the best coaching staff in baseball in terms of strength on the bases.

Manuel has also taken advantage of the double steal, and it’s a wonder that the creativity has seeped out of the game as teams continually look for the home run.

The Phillies attempted 17 double steals and were successful on 13 of them. The Rangers’ Ron Washington sent his runners into 19 double steals, and succeeded 17 times.

It seems as if the teams that have committed the time to baserunning skills in spring training are seeing it pay off during the season, and it’s baffling that more teams haven’t been able to succeed with a simple aspect of the game. It’s not rocket science, it’s just a way to try and get an extra base or two.

This is also a great time to take some space to praise Utley, who has become one of the best baserunners in the game.

John Dewan, of The Fielding Bible , named Utley the second best on the bases. Dewan ranks Utley at a +96 over the past five years, behind only Grady Sizemore of the Cleveland Indians. Essentially, Dewan says that the best way to look at the stat is to say that Utley has taken 96 more bases than the average runner over these last five years. Last year alone, Utley was a +27.

While the Phillies have become one of the best offensive powerhouses in recent history, it’s important to remember that they aren’t just doing it through the home run.

The round-tripper is an important part of the Phillies’ offense, but the Phillies continue to show that they have increased their offensive output through smart baserunning and good decisions on the bases.

While they had a bit of a down year in 2009 in terms of the amount of stolen bases, the Phillies are hoping to be better than average again in 2010.

Hey, Jimmy, let’s get 50.

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Beast of the NL East: Hanley Ramirez or Chase Utley?

A few weeks back, respected columnist Joe Posnanski took his shot at projecting the 2010 Major League Baseball season. 

He called his projection system perfect, because it was flawed, pointless, and will quickly be forgotten about. 

Hey, that could all be true. 

For now, at least, we’ll remember. And we’ll talk about one pertinent subject in Posnanski’s article. 

No disagreements with Posnanski on his projection that the Phillies will win 96 games; that may even be a little generous. 

No harm saying Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels are the best one-two punch in the division, either. 

Attention caught on Posnanski’s claim that Florida‘s Hanley Ramirez is the best player in the division, though. 

While claiming Ramirez to be the division’s cream of the crop, he mentions Chase Utley, David Wright, Ryan Howard, and Ryan Zimmerman as the best of the rest in the NL East. 

This much is clear, however: Ramirez and Utley are the best this division, and maybe this league, has to offer. 

This argument won’t be an attempt to discover who could be better in the future, who would make a better fantasy pick, or who is better because they signed a more value-laden contract. This is about what player you would pick if you had one chance to build a new team and had to win the championship as fast as possible. 

So who is the true beast of the NL East? 

The model of consistency, Utley, 31, has produced four 100-RBI seasons in his first five years as a full-time starter. 

His career .295/.379/.523 slash line isn’t too bad, either. 

He’s already a four-time All-Star, and, yes, he does have a ring. 

He is seen as the Phillies’ undisputed leader in the clubhouse, even though there is no such thing as LORP (Leadership Over Replacement Player for those of you playing at home). 

On the field, Utley makes an impact that few players can claim to making. 

In the past three years, Utley has posted WAR seasons (Wins Above Replacement) of 8.0, 8.1, and 7.6. The past two seasons, that has put him behind only St. Louis’ Albert Pujols in the National League. 

Utley is also a magnificent defender, as the stats back him up.

According to UZR/150, which is zone rating per 150 games, Utley has been far above average at second base. In 2007, he had a UZR/150 of 21.0, followed by seasons of 21.4 and and 11.3 in 2008 and 2009 respectively. 

Defensively, he’s one of the best in baseball. 

It can also be easy to forget that Utley stole 23 bases last year, a high-water mark for his career, and is widely regarded as one of the best base runners in the game. 

According to John Dewan, author of many books on baseball, Utley has gained 96 bases over the average in the past five years, most of any player in the National League and behind only Grady Sizemore of the Cleveland Indians. 

Yet Utley still continues to be disrespected by some, especially in the MVP voting each year. 

Last year, his eighth-place finish in the balloting put him behind players like Andre Ethier, Pablo Sandoval, and Troy Tulowitzki. 

While they are all fine players, none of them have the impact to their team like Utley does. 

Flip him with Ryan Howard in the Phillies’ lineup, and his RBI total would probably go up by 25 or 30.

Present that to the mostly dense Baseball Writers Association of America and they’d have Utley rated higher every year. Sadly, few of the members of the BBWAA are delving deeper than the old BA, HR, and RBI debate held every year. If they could look a little harder, they’d know the truth about one of the best players of this generation. 

Ramirez is undoubtedly one of the best young players in the game. At 26 years of age, his impact on the Marlins’ roster has been significant.

He hit a career-high .342 last season, with 24 homers and and 106 RBI. 

Mark up second place in the MVP voting, please. 

It’s funny, because while posting a .948 OPS in 2007 and a .940 OPS in 2008, it took until 2009 to get him some serious recognition in the voting. 

Why? Maybe it’s because his RBI total went from 81 and 67 in 2007 and 2008 respectively to 101 in 2009. 

The argument about the lack of brain power of the BBWAA is another story for another day, though. 

Ramirez is getting better by the day, a scary proposition for Phillies fans and for the rest of the league.

He struck out 21 fewer times last year than he did in 2008, raised his OBP, and got slightly better defensively to the point where he no longer hurts his team. 

His defensive numbers are still less than stellar, however. His UZR/150 numbers from the last three years: -20.9, -0.6, -0.3. Eighty-two errors in the last four years will do that you. 

He’s going to have to be a little bit better at the plate patience-wise, as his walk percentage dipped to 9.4 last year after a decent 13.3 showing in 2008. 

If the balls aren’t falling in for Ramirez, he could go through spells where he scuffles to reach base. 

When he does reach base, he can be a threat to run. He had 27 steals last year, down from 35 in 2008 and 51 the two years prior. 

The dip in steals is likely the Marlins’ plan to protect their young superstar from potential injury on the bases, as he has struggled with hamstring and groin injuries early in his career. 

And for the record, Ramirez’s WAR numbers over the past three years can’t match Utley’s: 5.7, 7.3, 7.2 simply doesn’t compare to Utley’s 8.0, 8.1, and 7.6. 

While Ramirez has proven to be one of the best young players in the game, he still has a long way to go to be up to the caliber of someone like Utley. 

Utley hasn’t proven himself just to be the best player in the NL East. 

Besides Pujols, Utley has proven himself to be the best player in the National League. 

So, Joe, we appreciate the kindness in your 2010 projections. 

You just got one thing wrong. 

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Ruben Amaro, Jr. Proving to Be Tough Negotiator for Phillies

It was just a couple of days after the Phillies‘ 2008 World Series win when it was announced that Ruben Amaro, Jr. would be the team’s new general manager.

Pat Gillick left on top of the world, a ring on his finger and a wonderful story to ride off into the sunset with.

Amaro, now 45 years of age, had been the team’s assistant GM since 1998 and had been a part of both the Gillick and Ed Wade eras.

Hired after Gillick’s retirement, not many people knew what to expect from Amaro.

We knew he had been handling much of the dirty work, including contracts, arbitration, and the grunt work of trades and roster movement.

We might not have known, however, that Amaro would be a “my way or the highway” type of GM.

He’s a tough negotiator, as evidenced by the recent developments with Chan Ho Park.

In an article yesterday in The Philadelphia Inquirer, Park lamented the fact that he would not be returning to the team as part of the bullpen.

The bottom line is that Amaro did not allow Park to dictate the Phillies’ offseason.

The Phillies offered a one-year, $3 million deal to Park to return to the pen, but Park looked around the league for a starting job.

He didn’t find it, and that is Park’s fault and his fault only. He signed a one-year, $1.2 million deal last week with the Yankees, losing out on a lot of cash and an opportunity to come back to the team he truly wanted to play for.

Give credit to Amaro, though, for going out and replacing Park with Jose Contreras and Danys Baez, two players whom manager Charlie Manuel spoke highly of.

Manuel took veiled shots at Park in a press conference last month about the right-hander’s inability to pitch on back-to-back days, another quality the Phillies were looking for in their bullpen.

That being said, Park had his chance, and Amaro moved on.

When Cliff Lee and the Phillies opened talks this offseason, Amaro already saw where the discussions were going.

Lee wanted a long-term contract, likely in the neighborhood of $120 million over six or seven years.

Amaro moved quickly, acquiring Roy Halladay from Toronto and locking him up for three years at an average annual value of $20 million per year.

Lee was moved to Seattle, shocking many fans around the league, not to mention Lee himself.

At first, it was a lot to process. Now, however, the shock value has subsided. 

The team has established that they will rarely go above three years on a contract with a pitcher.

There was little chance Lee would accept a deal with terms that short, so Amaro was left with little choice.

He made the right moves and got what he wanted: an ace pitcher locked up in the long term.

It was after the 2008 World Series win that Amaro’s first test came: Offer arbitration to Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer, risking payroll if they accepted?

Nope. Amaro declined to offer arbitration to either Moyer or Burrell even though they were both Type-A free agents.

The Phillies could have received draft pick compensation for both, but Amaro feared that both players would accept the arbitration and come back to the team on terms that would be decided by an outside source.

Amaro never wanted an arbiter to decide how much either would make. In the end, Moyer did come back to the team, but Burrell jettisoned his way to Tampa Bay.

Amaro then pounced on free-agent outfielder Raul Ibanez, who had a stellar start to 2009 but tailed off in the second half of the season.

It’s become a trademark of Amaro’s tenure as GM. He is a wheeler and dealer, and he will not allow players to dictate his thoughts.

Many Phillies fans have taken to calling Amaro “smug.” It may be the best fit for him, his bravado and confidence always beaming.

Some may even argue he is bordering on cocky, but that’s alright. He’d have it no other way.

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Can J.A. Happ Avoid Sophomore Slump in 2010?

Take a glance at the statistics, and it would be easy to say Phillies left-hander J.A. Happ is primed for a disappointing 2010.

Not many expected the 26-year-old rookie to go 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA while dominating the opposition on numerous occasions, but he did just that. 

Not many expected him to have a chance to be named Rookie of the Year, but he did. (He eventually lost out to Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan.)

Not many even expected him to be anything more than a bullpen piece or occasional spot-starter, but Chan Ho Park’s struggles allowed the two players to reverse roles relatively early in the season.

Now, Happ finds himself ready to go through his first full season as a starter in the majors. 

Tons of great work has already been done on the prospects of Happ in 2010, especially by David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News, so he gets credit for a lot of what will be talked about in this space.

It was Keith Law of ESPN who, in part, set off the alarms last September about Happ’s incredibly good luck in 2009.

For those who had not followed Happ’s stats last year, it was a bit of a disconcerting shot at the left-hander.

For those who had, it was a realistic slap in the face that this won’t last forever.

The damage? Happ’s FIP in 2009 was 4.33. Fielding Independent Pitching is a metric used to see how a pitcher pitches when defense is disregarded.

Meanwhile, xFIP, which has been used to predict a pitcher’s future ERA, had Happ at 4.49 last year.

The use of xFIP has increased over the years because of its accuracy. 

Joe Blanton had a 4.05 ERA last season, with an xFIP of 4.07. Cole Hamels’ xFIP was 3.69, with his actual ERA being 4.32. That would mean Hamels is likely to see a decrease in his ERA this year as long as he doesn’t change his approach.

The fact that Happ’s ERA and xFIP were so drastically different would lead one to believe his ERA will increase this season.

His BABIP last year was .270, with anything above the league average of .290 being unlucky and anything below being lucky.

Being 20 points below the league average would tell anyone that Happ had a very good season in terms of luck. 

Throw in the fact that he stranded 85.2 percent of baserunners, and it’s just hard to imagine Happ can have the same performance in 2010.

Taking all that into consideration, would an ERA in the 4.30-4.50 range be a disappointment for Happ?

From my perspective, it wouldn’t be. Coming out of college, Happ wasn’t a highly regarded prospect.

There wasn’t much expected of him (which seems to be the story of his career). When Law said last year that Happ was a decent fourth starter, he was probably right.

Over the long haul, it’s probably not a good idea to bank on Happ to go out and post the numbers he did last year as a starter. A 2.93 ERA is something we should expect out of Hamels and Roy Halladay, not Happ.

If Happ comes out this season and posts a 4.35 ERA, wins 12 or 13 games, and doesn’t break down due to injury, I’d call it a successful year for him.

As mentioned previously, Murphy did some interesting research regarding Happ.

He found that “from 1995-2008, 13 pitchers have posted an ERA of 3.00 or below (min. 150 IP) in one of their first three seasons in the majors. One of those pitchers, Alan Benes, missed the entire next season.

Of the remaining 12 pitchers, eight saw their ERA rise by at least 0.75, seven by at least 1.00, and three by at least 2.00. Eight of the 12 saw their WHIP rise by at least .200.”

The pitchers who had similar numbers the next year were Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Barry Zito, and Hideo Nomo.

Great things have always been expected of them because they are (or were at one point) great pitchers.

It could be possible that Happ may have a season parallel to the 1998 year that Andy Pettitte had for the Yankees. It serves us right to look at the two, because many scouts have compared the pitchers at times.

Pettitte had a 2.88 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 1997, then had a 4.24 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 1998. (We’ll try to avoid the use of performance-enhancing drug jokes here.)

Unfortunately xFIP only goes back to 2002, so the calculations would have to be done through manual labor, but we can still talk about the effect that Pettitte’s season had on the Yankees.

What did 1998 result in? A World Championship for the New Yorkers.

While Pettitte did struggle, he was a good fourth starter for the team. Happ can be just that for the Phillies, because Halladay, Hamels, and Blanton will go to war before Happ will.

Even if Happ doesn’t repeat his 2009, he is still a valuable asset for 2010.

His sneaky fastball does seem to catch hitters off guard, and his change-up has been devastating at times.

His cutter keeps the ball in on the hands of hitters, not allowing them to extend for good swings.

He hides the ball well and is relatively deceptive, which has appeared to give him an advantage thus far in his career.

Intense video watching by the opposition from last year’s games could force Happ to make adjustments.

Baseball is certainly a game of adjustments, and Happ will have to adapt.

 

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Top Ten Prospects: Numbers Five to One

This is the second in a two-part series on the Philadelphia Phillies ‘ top ten prospects heading into 2010.

 

5. Phillippe Aumont

Often times, we get an opportunity to discuss the fine athletes from our neighbors to the north in Canada. Usually, they are gifted stars on the hockey rink. 

It was never that way for Phillippe Aumont, who fell in love with baseball growing up in Quebec. 

The 11th pick by Seattle in the 2007 draft, Aumont, 21, now finds himself in Philadelphia, acquired via the Phillies‘ trade of Cliff Lee to the Mariners. 

It’s hard to miss the right-hander, who is 6’7″, 220 pounds and has an impressive arsenal of pitches to back up his imposing frame. 

He made his minor league debut in 2008, posting an impressive 2.75 ERA in 15 games (eight starts) in Single A Wisconsin. 

He battled with a sore elbow in the second half of 2008, but it was not seen as a serious concern. However, some have said that Aumont will need to alter his mechanics to ensure long-term health. 

Heading into 2009, the Mariners made a controversial decision to make Aumont a full-time bullpen piece. 

Aumont responded well in High Desert, pitching 33.1 innings, allowing just 24 hits and striking out 35 while walking 12 coming out of the pen. It earned him a promotion to Double A West Tennessee, where he struggled with control, walking 11 in 17.2 innings pitched en route to a 5.09 ERA. 

The good news? Aumont struck out 24 batters in those 17.2 innings, and had an incredibly unlucky .436 BABIP. 

The Phillies have already stated that Aumont will be a starter this season, although it’s unknown where he will begin in the organization’s minor league ladder. 

Aumont could become a premier strikeout pitcher, as evidenced by his minor league statistics and his blazing heater that can reach up to 95 MPH. 

He also possesses a sharp spike curve, which he used effectively in the 2009 World Baseball Classic while pitching for Canada. 

His third pitch, a change-up, will have to be improved this season for him to make an impact in the majors by 2011. 

 

4. Trevor May

It’s hard not to like what the Phillies’ 4th round pick in the 2008 draft has done so far. 

A meteoric rise up the Phillies’ top prospect list is good news for one Trevor May, a 6’5″ flamethrower out of Kelso, Washington.  

Despite having a commitment to play college baseball at the University of Washington, the Phillies convinced him to sign. He debuted in rookie ball at the end of the 2008 campaign, pitching 12 innings, allowing 11 hits, striking out 11, and walking seven. 

Despite a back injury which held him out for all of spring training and some of the 2009 season, the Phillies thought highly enough of May to have him skip Clearwater and head straight to High-A Lakewood. 

The right-hander was at the top of the list amongst players available from Washington at the time of the draft, and it’s not hard to know why. 

May possesses a heavy fastball that sits in the 91-93 MPH range, along with a good breaking curveball. It’s said that his change-up needs work, but he seemed to get by well enough in Lakewood last season. 

May went 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA in 15 starts with the Blue Claws, striking out 95 batters in just 77.1 innings. He will have to cut down on the walks, as he gave up 43 bases on balls and struggled with his control at times. 

That being said, May’s minor league experiences thus far have been nothing short of excellent. 

 

3. J.C. Ramirez

Juan Carlos Ramirez was said to be the one prospect that the Phillies had targeted highly when scouring through the Mariners’ organization for potential talent. 

Also acquired as part of the Lee trade, Ramirez comes into 2010 as the Phillies’ highest rated pitching prospect. 

Ramirez is a 6’3″, 225 pound right-hander from Nicaragua and already has a lengthy track record in the minor leagues, having thrown 341.2 innings over the past three seasons. 

Just 21 years of age, Ramirez will likely be assigned to Double-A Reading to begin the season. 

That could be a bit of a challenge for a guy who posted a 5.12 ERA last year in 142.1 innings for High Desert of the California League. 

While Aumont succeeded in High Desert, Ramirez did not. It is well known to skew towards hitters, however, and is considered one of the worst pitcher’s parks in the minor leagues. 

Ramirez’s fastball usually sits in the low 90’s, but is capable of hitting about 96 MPH on the gun. His slider is his best secondary pitch, but he lacks control of it at times. 

ESPN’s Keith Law has given Ramirez high praise, saying that he could become a steady front end of the rotation starter in the Bigs. 

However, if he can’t gain control of his slider or develop his change-up any further, Ramirez could be looking at a career in the bullpen. 

 

2. Tyson Gillies

Tyson Gillies has gotten used to people underestimating his abilities on the baseball field. 

A 25th round pick by Seattle in the 2006 draft, Gillies is the third and final piece that came to Philadelphia in the Lee trade. 

Playing at a disadvantage has been a storyline of Gillies’ career, seeing that he is legally deaf. He wears a hearing aid in both ears and reads lips to assist him on the base paths. 

Oh, and he’s pretty good, too. 

At 21 years of age, the Canadian-born Gillies is getting ready for takeoff in the minors. 

Another 2009 High Desert product, Gillies, who can play all three outfield positions, took advantage of the fact that the Mavericks had one of the best hitter’s parks in all of the minors by posting a .341/.430/.486 season. 

Speed is a big part of Gillies’ game, and he proved that last year with 14 triples in 124 games. He also had 44 steals, but was caught 19 times. If there’s one thing Phillies first base coach Davey Lopes has stressed over the past few years, it’s that patience and picking spots is important to base stealing. 

Should Lopes get his hands on Gillies this spring, they will have a lot to talk about. 

He has become a very good line drive hitter and, at 6’1″ and 200 pounds, has a very strong lower body. However, those who have watched him play say he needs work using that lower body to the best of its ability. 

He has drawn comparisons to Curtis Granderson from Seattle scouts.

Those comparisons may be a little baseless considering the fact that Granderson has proven he can hit anywhere between 20 and 30 homers, but Gillies does still have time to fill out his body for some extra power. 

 

1. Domonic Brown

Every team hopes they have one. 

Every team wishes for that crown jewel in their minor league system that makes all of their other prospects seem trivial. 

The Phillies have that man in the form of Domonic Brown, their tall, lanky, stud outfielder who has drawn comparisons to Daryl Strawberry. 

Seeing outfielder Michael Taylor in person was impressive, but seeing Brown is equally, if not more so, impressive and intriguing. 

At 6’5″ and 204 pounds, Brown, who bats and throws from the left, has made a name for himself since the Phillies called it in the 20th round of the 2006 draft. 

It’s funny that, even though he had made a name for himself, people still got it wrong. 

See, halfway through this season, after a mammoth effort in a game in Reading, it was pointed out by Reading Phillies PR man Rob Hackash that Brown’s first name is spelled “Domonic”, not “Dominic”, as many had been using throughout his minor league career. 

He had never taken the liberty to correct it until this season. 

Point taken, Mr. Brown. 

So often, teams will take a flier on a player in a later round, even if they feel they have a snowball’s chance in Hades to sign him. 

While there was a very good chance Brown was on his way to Miami to play football, he ended up signing a relatively hefty $200,000 bonus with the Phillies to pursue his baseball career. It was a small price to pay to get Brown into the system. 

Now crowned as the Phillies’ top prospect, Brown has a lot on his plate. 

Thus far, his minor league career has seen him post a .288/.368/.430 line, but he did have a .517 slugging percentage in Clearwater last year, with plenty of hope that he can become a true power hitter in the Majors. 

He earned a promotion to Reading towards the back end of the minor league season, and hit .279/.346/.456, showing he could hang with the big boys. 

He will be 22 come opening day, and will likely start the season in Reading. 

Often the subject of trade rumors, the Phillies made it clear to everyone and their mothers that Brown was never available. 

He is a unique talent and, should he fill out his body and continue to improve on his power numbers, he could be a true middle-of-the-order threat for the Phillies in the near future. 

How near is that future for Brown? If he does have a breakout year and Jayson Werth decides to walk in free agency, it would come as no surprise to see Brown patrolling the outfield in 2011. 

Until then, Brown will continue to toil in the minors, making life miserable for opposing pitchers. 

Oh, and make sure you spell his name right. 

 

 

 

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Top Ten Prospects 2010: Numbers Ten to Six

This is the first in a two-part series on the Philadelphia Phillies‘ top ten prospects heading into 2010.

In baseball, a lot can change in a short period of time.

Last year at this time, the Phillies‘ prospect list included names such as Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D’Arnaud.

Due to two shrewd trades by General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr., for Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay respectively, the Phillies’ minor league system may have had the greatest shake-up of any team’s in the last year.

The Phillies traded Carrasco, Marson, Donald, and Knapp to the Cleveland Indians for Lee and Ben Francisco days before the 2009 trade deadline, which already had many buzzing about what the Phillies’ new prospect list would look like come this spring.

Months later, enter Roy Halladay; exit Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud.

Sure, the Phillies do not have the same quality or quantity of prospects as they did a year ago at this time, but it is the price a team pays to upgrade for the opportunity to win now.

However, with the trading of Lee to the Seattle Mariners, it brought the Phillies three new prospects, all appearing on the new top ten list.

Yes, it would have been nice to have Lee, Halladay, and Cole Hamels anchor the Phillies’ staff in 2010.

Had Amaro not made the trade, however, the Phillies’ minor league system would have been depleted for years to come.

With players like Raul Ibanez and Chase Utley getting older, and players such as Jayson Werth potentially looking for mammoth contracts this off-season, the trade was a necessary evil to re-stock the Phillies’ farm system.

Without further ado, the Philadelphia Phillies’ 2010 top ten prospects:

 

10. Antonio Bastardo

A potential bullpen pitcher in 2010, Antonio Bastardo cracks the edge of the list based on the fact that he still has prospect status.

He made his Major League debut last year on June 2 in a start against San Diego, and was brilliant in the process, pitching six innings and allowing just one run in his victorious first game.

Amaro announced a few weeks ago that Bastardo will now be a full-time bullpen pitcher, and he has an opportunity to grab one of the open spots in spring training. 

The Phillies originally signed Bastardo as an amateur free agent in 2007. 

He rose quickly through the Phillies’ system, starting 14 games in Double-A Reading in 2008 and posting a 3.76 ERA in 67 innings.

Bastardo threw his fastball almost exclusively last year, which sits in the 90-92 MPH range, touching the mid 90’s at times. 

There have been concerns about his ability to hit those numbers consistently, but if the Phillies don’t overwork him, he can be used effectively.

He has put on about 30 pounds since the Phillies signed him as a lanky kid in the Dominican Republic, giving him increased durability and stamina this year.

He will work on developing a slider, along with a change-up, in 2010.

He will have to do that to survive as a bullpen pitcher, as hitters quickly picked up on his propensity for the fastball in 2009.

9. Jarred Cosart

There were a number of people who believed Jarred Cosart was unsignable when the Phillies selected him in the 38th round of the 2008 draft.

He was committed to Missouri, and it was rumored that he wanted a lot of money to sign.

He did sign (for $550,000) and the Phillies’ system is more fruitful today because of it.

Cosart was scouted as an outfielder and as a pitcher out of Clear Creek High (TX) with supreme athletic ability.

The Phillies have converted him to pitching full-time, and Cosart, who will turn 20 in May, performed very well in rookie ball last season.

The 6’3″, 180-pound right-hander pitched in seven games (five starts) for Clearwater in the Gulf Coast League, and allowed just 12 hits in 24.1 innings.

Cosart also struck out 25 batters en route to posting a 2.22 ERA in his first experience in the minors.

Perfect Game USA described Cosart as such: “unbelievable arm strength, quick clean arm action on the mound nice extension, sharp 11 to 5 curveball, curveball is an out pitch, nice sink and run on change-up, feel for three above average pitches.”

Cosart possesses a clean, downhill delivery which allows for maximum velocity on his fastball, which can reach the mid 90’s. 

Add that in with a body that is still growing, and Cosart could become a dominant power pitcher down the road.

While likely being at least three years from the Major Leagues, he is one to keep an eye on.

8. Domingo Santana

Although the Phillies just signed Domingo Santana as an amateur free agent last March, and though he is just 17 years of age, what he has done thus far warrants his spot on this list.

Scouted heavily by the Yankees along with the Phillies, the Phightin’s snatched him up for $300,000 in a hotly contested bidding war for the right fielder.

The Dominican-born Santana is a young 6’5″, 200-pounder.

While the Phillies have always been tepid regarding the international market, they felt they could not pass up a player of Santana’s potential.

He played 37 games in the Gulf Coast League for Clearwater, and posted an impressive slash line of .288/.388/.508 while hitting six homers and driving in 28 runs. 

If there is one negative against Santana, it could be his ability to put the ball in play, as he struck out 44 times in 118 at-bats.

However, many have raved about Santana’s throwing arm, along with his ability to run the bases, which could rank him much higher on next year’s list.

Sometimes, there just isn’t a whole lot of information to go off of when ranking these players, and Santana is a perfect example.

7. Sebastian Valle

With Marson and D’Arnaud no longer in the Phillies’ system, all eyes are on Sebastian Valle as the catcher of the future.

Sometimes it can be unfair to just assume that he will be just that because the catching depth in the Phillies’ system is razor-thin. Nonetheless, Valle’s name shoots to the top of the list. 

Valle certainly has the tools and the potential to turn into a decent player.

For the Phillies, the Mexican-born Valle is one of three players on this list to be signed as an amateur free agent.

At 19 years of age, he has only been catching for a couple of years, but the Phillies are hoping he will develop into a good game-caller.

He was signed for his bat, and has shown good power to the gaps, with 42 doubles in the past two years in the minors.

He spent the first part of 2009 in the New York-Penn League with Williamsport (Low-A), and posted an impressive .307/.335/.531 slash line, earning him a promotion to Lakewood (High-A).

The results there weren’t as sparkling, as he hit just .213 in 157 at-bats.

In the past couple of years, the Phillies have seen the maturation process of catcher Carlos Ruiz, who has done a brilliant job handling the pitching staff.

Valle will have to prove that he can do the same if he hopes to have a chance at becoming a Major Leaguer.

6. Anthony Gose

For years, there has been a stigma throughout baseball that the Phillies front office has a love of “toolsy” players with great athletic ability.

Seeing that they have drafted Zach Collier, Anthony Hewitt, Domonic Brown, Tim Moss, and Reggie Taylor over the years, you could say it’s true.

Anthony Gose is another player in that mold, and is making inroads in the organization.

With the departure of Taylor to Oakland, Gose becomes the third-highest ranked outfielder in the system.

In terms of speed, Gose is a once-in-a-lifetime talent. The question remains as to whether or not he can become a well-rounded baseball player.

A second-round pick in the 2008 draft, the Phillies had high hopes for Gose going into last season. At 6’1″, 190-pounds, Gose is projected as a center fielder.

He hit .259 last year, with a .323 on-base percentage and .353 slugging percentage. You can almost hear the Juan Pierre comparisons already.

However, one thing he has going for him is his arm, as he had 13 outfield assists in 2009, something Pierre can only dream about doing in his sleep.

Amazingly, Gose stole 76 bases last year, leading all of the minors in that category. It’s an impressive feat for a guy who only got on base 32.3% of the time.

He’ll have to work on his plate discipline and his contact skills, as he struck out 110 times last year, walking just 35 times.

However, Gose could some day be patrolling the center field area at Citizens Bank Park, but is likely at least two years away from making an impact.

 

 

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